A Nudge: Evaluation Insights for Betfair

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  • 8/16/2019 A Nudge: Evaluation Insights for Betfair

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    !" $%&'( )* +$, +*-(./ 01 /2( .20).( +3.2)/(./%3(

    /2+/ +4/(3* -(0-4(5* 6(2+7)0%3 )$ + -3(&)./+64( 8+,8)/20%/ 1036)&&)$' +$, 0-90$*:;

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    yes    no 

    1

    4    5   

    BET_SIZE >= 1961

    BET_SIZE >= 19e+3

    S

    .19 .01 .80 .00

    100%

    S

    .43 .01 .56 .00

    16%

    C

    .69 .01 .30 .00

    2%

    S

    .39 .01 .60 .00

    14%

    .15 .

    yes    no 

    1

    4    5   

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    P&$%& C,80 '(, +$?,+9 8. C, %'5%,++,)Q

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    0

    50

    100

    150

    C L S

    Status of Bet

       S  u  m   o

       f  m  e  a  n

       B  e   t   P  r   i  c  e  a  c  r  o  s  s  a   l   l  m  a   t  c   h  e  s

    P&$%& C,80 '(, +$?,+9 8. +'

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    •  :'5%,++,) C,80 %.((,+'8, E$8& C,8 0$D, '5) E&,8&,( 8&,9 '(, 6'), >$5"

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    Regular

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    Power

    Super

    0

    1

    2

    3

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    !5 0 5

    !0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9

    !0.2   !0.1 0.0 0.1

    Ratio of profits/losses to Total Bets

           D      e      n      s       i       t      y

    USER_TYPE

    Regular

    Power

    Super

    *.8'+ -(.e80Y+.00,0 )$2$),) C9 8

    A3+LV3-.E,(@ 30,(0 ). C,W,

    >(,;3+'(@ .5,0

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    •  A.),+ \ Z U'

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    BID_TYP

    BET_SIZE

    BET_PRICE

    INPLAY_BET

    50 150 250 350MeanDecreaseAccuracy

    BID_TYP

    BET_PRICE

    BET_SIZE

    INPLAY_BET

    0 500 MeanDe

    fit

    •  A.),+ \ Z U'

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    •  A.),+ h Z H5)$2$)3'+ 30,( E$5Y+.0, %+'00$e,(

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    • 

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    :.5%+30$.50

    •  V3;;,08,) 6,%&'5$06 " >53);$5;@ %308.6,(0

    •  #,N3$(,0