A Look at Our Local Community: Conducting an (brief) External Scan

PaRC Presentation

February 6, 2013

E. Kuo & T. Margesson Foothill IR&P

• Examination of external environment

– Population

– Education

– Labor

• Consider our local community in relation to who we are and might be serving

• Inform strategic planning

Overview

2

Population

Who makes up our local community?

3

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Santa Clara and San Mateo County Population Projections 2010-2060

Santa Clara County

San Mateo County

Projections by County

Source: CA Department of Finance, P-1 (Age)

Within our service area, population projected to increase between 3%-7% between 2010-2060.

Slide 1

Projected 23% increase in Santa Clara County over next 47 years.

29% increase for San Mateo County

Note: Foothill service area defined as Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale.

4

Projections by Age

Source: CA Department of Finance, P-2 (Age)

15-24 yrs.25-34 yrs.35-44 yrs.

65+ yrs.10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Santa Clara Population Projections 2010-2060 by Age 15 and older

45-64

Slide 2

65+ will be largest proportion of county population after 2040

Accompanying decrease among those 45-64

5

19%

5%

78%

187%395%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

College Age (18-24)

Working Age (25-64)

Young Retirees (65-74)

Mature Retirees (75-84)

Seniors (85+)

Santa Clara County Population Projections 2010-2060by Age Group as a Percent Change

Projections by Age

Source: CA Department of Finance, P-1 (Age)

Slide 3

Greatest rate of change among 85+ Largest increase among 75-84 (+117,901) Among 18-24,

increase by almost 20%

6

Projections by Ethnicity

American Indian

Asian

Black

Hispanic

Multi-ethnic

White

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Santa Clara County Population Projections 2010-2060 by Ethnicity

Source: CA Department of Finance, P-2 (Age)

Slide 4

Decline in White population

Asian and Hispanic populations make up majority of county population (70%) by 2060

7

Projections by Gender

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

1,000,000

1,050,000

2012 2017 2022

Santa Clara County Population Projections 2012-2022by Gender

Over next 10 years, gender breakdown remain fairly constant at 50/50

Percentage increase between 2012-2022 by about 10% for men and women

Source: EMSI

Slide 5

8

Income

Source: US Census Fact Finder, 2011

Slide 6

$218,077

$151,856

$122,532

$93,292 $91,446

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Los Altos Hills Los Altos Palo Alto Sunnyvale Mountain View

Foothill College Service Area 2011 Median Household Income

Santa Clara County median $89,064

9

Income by Ethnicity

Source: US Census Fact Finder

Slide 7

$104,343

$86,714 $85,511

$60,625 $57,643 $55,541

$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Asian White Filipino/PI American Indian

Latino African American

Santa Clara County 2011 Median Household Income by Ethnicity

Santa Clara County median

$89,064

10

73%69%

54%61%

47%

27%31%

46%39%

53%

23% 23%

44%

31%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Los Altos Los Altos Hills Mountain View Palo Alto Sunnyvale

Foothill Service Area Language Spoken at Home

Speak only English Speak a language other than English Speak English less than "very well"*

English Language Facility

Source: US Census Fact Finder, 2011

Slide 8

A higher percentage of people living Mountain View and Sunnyvale speaking another language at home.

11

Over one-third of people living in Mountain View and Sunnyvale who speak a language other than English at home also feel they don’t speak English very well.

Education

Attainment, Preparation, Attendance

12

30%

17%

7%

26%

20%

29%

19%

8%

27%

17%

40%

22%

8%

19%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

High school graduate/GED,

or less

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or Professional

degree

Highest Level of Education among Adults Aged 25+

Santa Clara County San Mateo County California

Educational Level by County

Source: US Census Fact Finder, 2011

Slide 9

Associate Degree completion comparable to state level

Both counties have highly educated residents (BA/BS+)

13

High School Graduation Projections

Source: CA Department of Education

Slide 10

16,913

16,913

17,103

17,284

17,385

18,453

18,334

18,695

19,272

19,217

5,868

5,885

5,638

5,750

5,850

6,145

6,042

6,200

6,513

6,639

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Projected High School Graduations by County 2012-2021

San MateoCounty

Santa Clara County

Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties HS graduations projected to increase at similar rate (13%)

14

78%71% 69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Palo Alto Unif ied School District

Fremont Union High School District

MtnView/Los Altos School District

Foothill Service Area 2010 HS Graduates Completing UC/CSU Required Courses

Santa Clara County, 46%

California,37%

HS Graduates and College Prep

Source: CA Department of Education

Slide 11

Feeder high schools complete UC/CSU requirements at a higher rate compared to county and state.

Santa Clara 36% Sequoia HS 50%

15

-1%

0%

8%

-9%

-4%

-12%

-4%-2%

-8%

1%

-8%

-12%

-4%

-10% -10%

-4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Canada De Anza Evergreen Valley

Foothill Mission San Jose City

San Mateo

West Valley

Regional Community College Enrollment and FTES2010-11 and 2011-12

Enrollment FTES

Local Community Colleges

Source: CCCC0 Datamart

Slide 12

Regional institutions all experienced declines in enrollment and FTES

Evergreen experienced largest decline among these colleges in enrollment between 2009-10 to 2010-11 (-16%)

16

Labor Employers, Employment, Projections

17

Top Employers

Source: EMSI, Equifax Business List Data (2012, Q3) Companies that have recently had a credit check.

Slide 13

Santa Clara County Health Care, Technology

San Mateo County Government, Technology and Information, Financial

Santa Clara County San Mateo County

Rank Business Local Employee

Business Local Employee

1 Stanford Hospital & Clinics 4,935 Us Department Of The Interior 7,000

2 Santa Clara Valley Medical Center

4,513 Inovant Llc 1,500

3 Brocade Communications Systems, Inc.

2,500 Franklin Investment Advisory Services, Llc

1,500

4 Cypress Semiconductor Corporation

2,076 San Mateo County Offices Health Education

1,500

5 Varian Medical Systems Inc 2,068 Oracle America, Inc. 1,400

18

Employment by Sector

Source: EMSI

Slide 14

Services, 46%

Manufacturing, 17%

Retail Trade, 9%

Government, 8%

Information, 6%

Construction, 4%

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, 4%

Wholesale Trade, 4% Transportation/

Utilities, 1%

Agriculture/Mining, <0%

2012 Santa Clara County Job Percentage by Sector

Almost half of those employed in the county are employed in the service sector

Service sector includes professional, scientific and technical services; educational services; arts and entertainment; accommodation and food services; health care and social assistance.

19

Santa Clara

San Mateo

California

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Nov)

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

Source: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Slide 15

Unemployment rate appears to be on a declining trend.

Both counties demonstrate unemployment trends lines that are lower compared to state levels.

20

Fastest Growing Occupations for Santa Clara County 2012-2017

Description 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs 5 Yr. % Change Education Level

Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs 45 73 62% Associate's degree

Film and Video Editors 105 141 34% Bachelor's degree

Personal Care Aides 4,872 6,346 30% Short-term on-the-job training

Reporters and Correspondents 270 347 29% Bachelor's degree

Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and

Plastic 123 157 28% Moderate-term on-the-job

training

Medical Equipment Repairers 281 357 27% Associate's degree

Curators 53 66 25% Master's degree

Home Health Aides 4,100 5,074 24% Short-term on-the-job training

Helpers--Carpenters 161 198 23% Short-term on-the-job training

Archivists 130 158 22% Master's degree

5-Yr Projected Occupation Growth

Source: EMSI

Slide 16

Roughly half of the fastest growing occupations require some training or an Associate’s degree.

21

Fastest Growing Occupations for San Mateo County 2012-2017

Description 2012 Jobs 2017 Jobs 5 Yr. % Change Education Level

Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 72 125 74% Moderate-term on-the-job

training

Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks 50 75 50% Short-term on-the-job training

Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes 48 72 50%

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work

experience

Helpers--Carpenters 59 87 47% Short-term on-the-job training

Tile and Marble Setters 167 242 45% Long-term on-the-job training

Mechanical Door Repairers 66 93 41% Moderate-term on-the-job training

Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters 54 75 39% Moderate-term on-the-job training

Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters,

Operators, and Tenders 75 104 39% Moderate-term on-the-job

training

Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators,

and Tenders 47 65 38% Moderate-term on-the-job

training

Environmental Engineering Technicians 16 21 31% Associate's degree

5-Yr Projected Occupation Growth

Source: EMSI

Slide 17

Almost all of the fastest growing occupations require training.

22

23

10-Yr Projected High Demand Occupations

Source: EMSI Slide 18

High demand means there is a projected gap between the number of people with the education and skills who qualify for anticipated job openings.

10 High Demand Occupations for Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties 2012-2022

Occupation Education Level

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Work experience in a related occupation

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists Bachelor's degree

Computer Systems Analysts Bachelor's degree

General and Operations Managers Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers Short-term on-the-job training

Carpenters Long-term on-the-job training

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers Work experience in a related occupation

Teacher Assistants Short-term on-the-job training

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Moderate-term on-the-job training

Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Moderate-term on-the-job training

Projected Program Demand

Source: EMSI

Slide 19

Top 10 Foothill Program Demand based on Projected Job Growth 2011-2022 In Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties

Rank Program Regional Openings

Institution Completions

Regional Completions

Jobs Growth (2011-2022) Gap

1 Computer Science 6,095 7 569 29% 5,526

2 Computer Programming/Programmer, General 5,125 9 43 30% 5,082

3 Computer and Information Sciences, General 3,077 5 13 27% 3,064

4 Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications 2,356 8 23 30% 2,333

5 International Business/Trade/Commerce 1,228 4 4 6% 1,224

6 Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General 1,162 1 50 12% 1,112

7 Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping 1,241 37 299 17% 942

8 Electrician 909 3 147 19% 762

9 Mass Communication/Media Studies 460 2 25 30% 435

10 Health and Physical Education/Fitness, General 531 6 166 28% 365

Total 22,184 82 1,339

Largest number of openings based on 2011 completion rates are primarily in computer industries

But also occupations related to communication and health and fitness programs

24

These are programs currently offered at Foothill.

• Population – Continued increase over next 45 years – Increase in college-age population group

• Education – Highly educated population

• Labor – Decrease in unemployment – Projections suggest need for training – Computer technology/information opportunities

continue to increase

Summary

25

• Use with Foothill student data

• Encourage discussion about who we are serving and who we might serve

• Serve as resource for mission revisit and for educational strategic master plan (ESMP)

• Questions?

• Feedback?

Next Steps

26