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A Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model System for Continental Scale River
Basins大陸河川のための分布型生物圈水文
モデルに関する研究 by Qiuhong Tang
7 Nov 2006
Hydro Seminar @ Land surface hydrology group of UW
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼
➢
The picture is adopted from Oki and Kanae Science (2006).
➀
➁➂➃
➄
➀ Land surface -atmosphere
➁ Vegetation-soil-groundwater
➂ Spatial/temporal heterogenieity
➃ Lateral redistribution of moisture
➄ Human activities
New challenges:
➀ Information from nontraditional data
➁ Develop a realistic model
➂ Investigate the effects of heterogeneities
➃ Runoff lateral redistributions
➄ Evaluate the effects of human activities and climate change
Research Objectives
Introduction❶ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 3
Result analysis Scenario analysis
Validations and Applications
Nontraditional datasets
Data analysis
Analyses on Observed Data
1D Land surface model
Lateral water redistribution
DBH Model
Irrigation scheme
❷
❸ ❹
❺ ❻
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling
❼ Conclusions and Recommendations
Introduction❶ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 4
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼
➢
Conceptual Model: The first generation hydrological model (1960s – 1970s)
Use statistical relationship between rainfall and discharge
Integrate different components of hydrological processes in a lumped or fake-distributed way
Representative models and methodology: Stanford model, Xin’an jiang model, Tank model, Unit Hydrograph etc.
Meteorological observation
Hydrographic gauge
Empirical relationship
Lumped model
3-D saturated flow groundwater model
1-D unsaturated flow model
2-D overland flow model
Snow melt model
Canopy interception model
Rain and snow
Distributed Model: The second generation hydrological model (1980s – 1990s)
Recognize the effects of spatial heterogeneity with spatially varying data
Solve the differential equations with powerful computer
Representative models and methodology: SHE model, TOPMODEL, GBHM etc.
Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 6
Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological (DBH) Model: The third generation hydrological model (2006)
Connect hydrological cycle with biosphere, climate system and human society.
Physically represent hydrological cycle with nontraditional data
Development of DBH model shows the new direction of hydrology.
Few models can represent both biosphere and land surface hydrological cycle. (e.g. DHSVM, VIC, FOREST-BGC etc.)
This study will develop a model system to bridge atmosphere-biosphere-land surface hydrology and human society.
The scope of hydrology will broaden from rainfall-runoff relationship to climatology, biosphere, ecosystem, geosphere, remote sensing, and human society.
SVAT scheme
Mass/Energy
Photosynthesis
CO2
Hydrologic scheme
Human activity
Nontraditional data sources
Climate model
Snow meltChemical tracers
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 7
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼
➢
IDW
TS
TPS
Interpolation methods:
Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW)
Thin Plate Splines (TPS)
Thiessen Polygons (TS)
Analyses on Observed Data❸ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 9
Get time series coverage from in situ observation.
Harmonize variant data sources.
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
(d)
(b)
(c)
(a)
SCI
NC
I valu
es
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
22222
VALID DATA POINTS 255626MISSING DATA POINTS 7414
R2 = 0.506
0.-.1 .1-.2 .2-.3 .3-.4 .4-.5 .5-.6 .6-.7 .7-.8 .8-.9 .9-1.
.7-.8
.2-.3
.3-.4
.4-.5
.5-.6
.6-.7
.8-.9
.9-1.
0.-.1
.1-.2
(a)
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
21-24
6-9
9-12
12-15
15-18
18-21
24-27
Cloud amount
CLA
VR
valu
es
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
22222
VALID DATA POINTS 255626MISSING DATA POINTS 7414
R2 = 0.169
0.-.1 .1-.2 .2-.3 .3-.4 .4-.5 .5-.6 .6-.7 .7-.8 .8-.9 .9-1.
27-30
1-3
3-6
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.-.1 .1-.2 .2-.3 .3-.4 .4-.5 .5-.6 .6-.7 .7-.8 .8-.9 .9-1.
R2 = 0.407
Cloud amount
NC
I valu
es
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
22222
VALID DATA POINTS 255626MISSING DATA POINTS 7414
.7-.8
.2-.3
.3-.4
.4-.5
.5-.6
.6-.7
.8-.9
.9-1.
0.-.1
.1-.2
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.-.1 .1-.2 .2-.3 .3-.4 .4-.5 .5-.6 .6-.7 .7-.8 .8-.9 .9-1.
R2 = 0.572
Cloud amount
SC
I valu
es
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
VALID DATA POINTS 255626MISSING DATA POINTS 7414
.7-.8
.2-.3
.3-.4
.4-.5
.5-.6
.6-.7
.8-.9
.9-1.
0.-.1
.1-.2
Information extracted from nontraditional data is compared with traditional data.
G: Ground observation
Rd: Data derived by DBH
Ro: Data from CLAVR
G1G1
G1G2
G2
Rd
Rd
Ro
Data from: AVHRR NDVI dataset
Spatial resolution: 16 km
Temporal resolution: daily
Study area: the Yellow River Basin
Study period: 1995-2000
Satellite data
Satellite data
Analyses on Observed Data❸ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 10 Tang, Q., Oki, T., 2006. J. Appl. Meteorol., accepted.
Data analysis.
Detect climate change magnitude (1960-2000) :
Precipitation on the Loess Plateau decreases
Cloudy decreases, humidity decreases, temperature and ET increase, in irrigation districts (Drier). LAI increase in irrigation districts.
Precipitation (%) Reference ET (%)
Relative humidity (%) Sunshine time (%)
Cloud amount (%) LAI (%)
Mean Temperature (K) Min. Temp. (K)
Max. Temp. (K)DTR (diurnal temp. range, K)
I
II
Temperature increases, LAI decreases on the Tibet PlateauThe Loess Plateau, the IDs, and the Tibet Plateau can be precipitation, human activity, and temperature hot spots of Yellow River drying up, respectively.
III
III
Analyses on Observed Data❸ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 11
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Kanae, S., Hu, H., 2006. Hydrol. Process., accepted.
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼
➢
Flow intervals Sub-basin Basin
SiB2 Model
Outlet
bhr
River cross section
ha
qg
qs
hg
Surface layer
Root zone
Recharge zone
Canopy
D1
D2
D3
Z1
Z2
Zm Reference Height
Canopy Air Space
Groundwater
One dimensional modelOne dimensional model
River Routing SchemeRiver Routing Scheme
(Hydrotopes)
Point dataRS: LAIRS: FPAR
Land useSoil type
DEM
Input data (time varying) Geographic data
SiB2 Model
EvaporationRunoff
SiB2-DHM Model
Energy flux
River Routing
Gravity
Nontraditional Data
SVAT
DHM
Development of a DBH Model❹ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 13
DBH model strategy
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Hu, H., 2006. Ann. J. Hydraul. Eng. JSCE 50, 37-42.
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/DBH/
New features of DBH model: Biosphere, Nontraditional data sources.
Development of a DBH Model❹ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 14
A B C D
A
D
CBO
O
➀
➁
➂
➀ Vegetation condition-hydrology
➁ Climate (Energy part)-hydrology
➂ Human activity-hydrology
Contributions:
Biosphere (SVAT scheme)
New features:
Non-Irrigated Irrigated
1.0 IF
IF: Irrigation fraction
New features of DBH model: Biosphere, Nontraditional data sources.
AV
HR
R / L
AI
SiB2 L
and Use
Global C
limate Station
s
Data sources used in the DBH model system:
Remote sensing (RS) : AVHRR/NDVI, LAI, FPAR, ISCCP-FD RadFlux, HYDRO1K, etc.
Ground observations: Global Surface Summary of Day Data, Global Soil Bank, etc.
Statistical survey data: Global Soil Map, Global Irrigation Area
Development of a DBH Model❹ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 15
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼
➢
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 17
DBH model application in the Yellow River Basin
The Yellow River BasinThe Yellow River BasinArea: 794,712 km2 River length: 5,464 km Topographic condition:Tibetan Plateau – Loess Plateau – North China PlainClimatic Condition:Annual precipitation < 200 – 800 mmSimulation:Spatial: 10*10 km; Time step: hourly;
##
#
#
#
##
#^
BohaiGulf
Tibetan Plateau
Loess PlateauNorth China Plain
Beijing
Tangnaihai (TNH)
Lanzhou (LZ)
Toudaoguai (TDG)
Huayuankou (HYK)
Lij in (LJ)Qingtongxia ID
Hetao ID
Lower reach IDsC h i n aC h i n a
M o n g o l i aM o n g o l i a
Qingtongxia (QTX)
Shizuishan
Longmen (LM)
Sanmenxia (SMX)Weihe ID
95°0'0"E
100°0'0"E
100°0'0"E 105°0'0"E
105°0'0"E
110°0'0"E
110°0'0"E
115°0'0"E
115°0'0"E
120°0'0"E
35°0'0"N
35°0'0"N
40°0'0"N
40°0'0"N
0 300 600150 Km±
River Basin
Irrigation district (ID)
Main stream
Tributary
Meteorological station
# Hydrologic gauge
^ Capital
Model Calibration and Validation
1983-1-1 1985-1-1 1987-1-1 1989-1-1 1991-1-1 1993-1-10
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Dis
charg
e (
m3/s
)
Tangnaihai_obv Tangnaihai_sim
Monthly discharge comparison Bias = -1.1% RMSE = 233 m3/s RRMSE = 0.3 MSSS =0.828MSSS (mean square skill score, Murphy, 1988, recommended by WMO) MSSS: -∞ To 1.0
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 19820
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
BIAS=-6.1% RMSE=333m3/s RRMSE=0.48 MSSS=0.646
Dis
char
ge (
m3 /s
)
Tangnaihai_sim Tangnaihai_obv
Bias = -6% RMSE = 333 m3/s RRMSE = 0.48 MSSS =0.646
Calibration (1983-1993)
Validation (1962-1982)
Monthly discharge comparison
Slope: FAO soil map, slope f=2.0
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Dis
char
ge (m
3/s
)
Tangnaihai_obv Tangnaihai_sim
Averaged Monthly discharge comparison
Bias = -1.1% RMSE = 136 m3/s RRMSE = 0.2 MSSS =0.9231983-1-1 1985-1-1 1987-1-1 1989-1-1 1991-1-1 1993-1-10
1000
2000
3000
4000
Dis
char
ge (
m3/s
)
Tangnaihai_obv Tangnaihai_sim
Daily discharge comparison
Bias = -1.1% RMSE = 297 m3/s RRMSE = 0.4 MSSS =0.759Year Qobv Tpeak Qsim Tpeak Qsim-obv Tsim-obv
1983 3560 14-Jul 3253 14-Jul -307 0
1984 3660 17-Jul 3099 15-Jul -561 -2
1985 3350 21-Sep 3389 18-Sep 39 -3
1986 2620 4-Jul 2766 5-Jul 146 1
1987 2150 25-Jun 3252 27-Jun 1102 2
1988 1480 10-Oct 1340 7-Oct -140 -3
1989 4140 23-Jun 2670 26-Jun -1470 3
1990 1430 17-Sep 1309 13-Sep -121 -4
1991 1590 18-Aug 1751 17-Aug 161 -1
1992 2710 7-Jul 2322 22-Jun -388 -15
1993 2040 21-Jul 2264 23-Jul 224 2
Annual Largest Flood Peak comparison (m3/s, day)
Bias < 10% Bias > 50% Tdelay > 5 days
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 19
1/1/1962 1/1/1965 1/1/1968 1/1/1971 1/1/1974 1/1/1977 1/1/19800
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000 BIAS=-6.03% RMSE=459m3/s RRMSE=0.66 MSSS=0.419
Dis
char
ge (
m3 /s
)
Tangnaihai_Sim Tangnaihai_obv
Bias = -6% RMSE = 459 m3/s RRMSE = 0.6 MSSS =0.419
Daily discharge comparison
Calibration (1983-1993)
Validation (1962-1982)
Model Calibration and Validation
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 20
Model Calibration and Validation
1955 1960 1965 1970 19750
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wat
er w
ithdr
awal
s (1
09 m
3 )
UP_rep. UP MID_rep. MID LOW_rep. LOW TOT_rep. TOT
1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wat
er w
ithdr
awal
s (1
09 m3 )
UP_rep. UP MID_rep. MID LOW_rep. LOW TOT_rep. TOT
Validation (1960s-1970s)
Calibration (1980s-1990s)
Reported Simulated
1960s 17770 249801970s 19900 23181
Unit: 106m3/ year
Reported Simulated
1980s 29610 268861990-95 29960 29879
Unit: 106m3/ year
Canal coefficient: 0.3
The canal coefficient in Yellow River basin is about: 0.3 – 0.5. (Wang H., Cai P., Zhou H. Yellow River News, YRCC, 2005)
河套
青铜峡
尊村
宝鸡峡
汾河
泾惠渠
汾西
冯家山
镫口大黑河
洛惠渠交口抽渭
麻地毫
东雷抽黄(禹门口
靖会
萧河
兴电
石头河
固海扬水湟水流域
桃曲坡
景电一期
位山
潘庄
赵口
李家岸
彭楼
大功
陆浑
渠村
三义寨阎潭
韩墩簸箕李
谢寨
胡楼
王庄
刘庄
刑家渡
陶城铺
武嘉广利
人民胜利渠
95°0'0"E
100°0'0"E
100°0'0"E 105°0'0"E
105°0'0"E
110°0'0"E
110°0'0"E
115°0'0"E
115°0'0"E
35°0'0"N
35°0'0"N
40°0'0"N
40°0'0"NRiver
Basin
Irrigation Districts
Irrigation Districts in the Yellow River Basin
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 21
Target: Effects of natural and anthropogenic heterogeneity
Methodology:
withdraw from nearest river section
withdraw from specific river section
Irrigated Fraction data is from AQUASTAT dataset.
Precipitation heterogeneityCalibrate with Tangnaihai stationa=b=4
Anthropogenic heterogeneity
Experiments:Case 1 : no irrigation, no precipitation heterogeneity Case 2 : no irrigation, with precipitation heterogeneityCase 3 : irrigation, with precipitation heterogeneity
Area
Pre
cipi
tati
on
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Kanae, S., Hu, H., 2006. J. Hydromet., accepted.
Review of studies on this topic: • Effect of natural, not anthropogenic, heterogeneity is presented.The new generation hydrological model makes it possible to represent both natural and anthropogenic heterogeneity.
TNH LZ QTX TDG LM SMX HYK0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Dis
charg
e a
long r
iver
(m3 /s
)
Observed Case 1 Case 2 Case 3
Case 2_ No irrigation
Case 3_ With irrigation
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5
10
15
20
25Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Run
off (
mm
/mon
th)
Case1_Surface Runoff Case1_Total Runoff Case2_Surface Runoff Case2_Total Runoff
Precipitation
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (m
m/m
onth
)
Case 2_ Runoff
Case 1_ Runoff
Case 2_ Surface
Case 1_ Surface
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 22
Results:Case 1 : no precipitation heterogeneity
Case 2 : with precipitation heterogeneity
Case 1 : no precipitation heterogeneity
Case 2 : with precipitation heterogeneity
With consideration of natural heterogeneity, total runoff increase because surface runoff increase.
With consideration of natural heterogeneity, total runoff increase because surface runoff increase.
decreasing discharge
discharge increases
59%
41%
(RAZ)
Case 2 : no irrigation
Case 3 : with irrigation
Case 2 : no irrigation
Case 3 : with irrigation
With consideration of anthropogenic heterogeneity, Runoff Absorbing Zone (RAZ) can be simulated.
With consideration of anthropogenic heterogeneity, Runoff Absorbing Zone (RAZ) can be simulated.
Effects of human activities on water components:
Water shortage
Evaporation increase Runoff increase
Irrigation
Averaged (AVG) In Irrigation Districts (ID) Irrigated Fraction>0.3(IF3) MAX MIN
Annual mean water components (1983-2000) in the Yellow River Basin
65% 42% 44% 100% 0% 1.9 7.7 11.7 37.1 0
2.1 6.9 10.5 22 0 -0.25 0.8 1.2 26.4 -8.6
AVG ID IF3 MAX MIN AVG ID IF3 MAX MIN
AVG ID IF3 MAX MIN AVG ID IF3 MAX MIN
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 23
Ground temperature change
Latent heat fluxes change Sensible heat fluxes change
Canopy temperature change-0.1 -0.32 -0.4 0 -1.6 -0.06 -0.23 -0.31 0 -1.2
3.3 11.2 15.5 43.3 0
-2.5 -.7.7 -10.2 0 -37.8
AVG ID IF3 MAX MIN AVG ID IF3 MAX MIN
AVG ID IF3 MAX MINAVG ID IF3 MAX MIN
Effects of human activities on energy components:
Averaged (AVG) In Irrigation Districts (ID) Irrigated Fraction>0.3(IF3) MAX MIN
Mean energy components in peak irrigation month (JJA, 1983-2000)
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 24
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼➢
A comprehensive application (Both data analysis and model simulation)Study area: the Yellow River Basin (1960-2000)
Target: potential reasons for the Yellow River drying up
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 26
Review of studies on this topic:
• Analyze hydro-climate data (Fu et al 2004; Yang et al 2004, Xu 2005)
• Analyze water use/irrigation data (Liu and Zhang 2002)
• Statistical relationship between climate data, water use, and discharge data
Climate condition
Human activity
Hydrology cycle
DBH
Distributed Numerical
The new generation hydrological model makes it possible to numerically simulate connections (internal relation) between climate condition, human activity and hydrology cycle.
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-19950
50
100
150
200
250
Irrigate
d a
rea (
10
4hm
2)
Year
Upstream Midstream Downstream Upstream_no change Midstream_no change Downstream_no change
Downstream
Upstream
Midstream
Methodology:
The distribution of irrigated area data is from AQUASTAT dataset.The amount of irrigated area is obtained from reports or literatures.
Irrigated area change/ no change
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 27
To watch the hydrological response to hydrological forcing data. The simulation difference between ‘no change’ and ‘change’ forcing data shows the contribution of the hydrological components.
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 28
Climate conditions linear change/ no linear change (mean value is the mean value of the 1960s) / no pattern change
Precipitation Mean Temp.
Min. Temp. Max. Temp.
Relative Humidity Sunshine timeClimate conditions without pattern change (repeat the climate condition in the 1960s)
Climate conditions without pattern change (repeat the climate condition in the 1960s)
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 29
Vegetation conditions change / no change
LAI FPAR
Experiments:
S1-S2: linear climate change contribution S1-S3: vegetation change contribution S1-S4: irrigated area change contributions
S1-S5: all linear changes contribution (S1-S5) – (S1-S6): climate pattern change contribution
Scenarios Climate Vegetation Irrigated Area
Scenario 1 / / /Scenario 2 -- / /Scenario 3 / -- /Scenario 4 / / --Scenario 5 -- -- --Scenario 6 O -- --
/ With change -- No linear change O No pattern and no linear change
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Wate
r w
ithdra
wals
(10
9 m3 )
UP_rep. UP MID_rep. MID LOW_rep. LOW TOT_rep. TOT
Total
Lower reaches
Upper reaches
Mid reaches
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 30
Results: Model performance of annual discharge at main stem stations of the Yellow River
Simulated and reported water withdrawals at the Yellow River basin
MSSS = 0.5 MSSS = 0.5
MSSS = 0.7 MSSS = 0.7
Scenario 1
Hydrological components change contributed by climate, vegetation, irrigated area change. (S1-S5)Hydrological components change contributed by climate, vegetation, irrigated area change. (S1-S5)
Results:
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 31
Runoff_Change ET_Change
Withdrawal_Change Tg_Change
Conclusion Remarks:
1) Climate change (75%) is dominated in upper/middle reaches, human activity is dominated in lower reaches.
2) Climate pattern change (30%) rather than linear change (10%) is more important for Yellow River drying up.
3) The reservoirs make more stream flow consumption for irrigation on one hand, and help to keep environment flow and counter zero-flow in the river channel on the other hand.
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in YRB❻ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 32 Tang, Q. et al, 2006. xxx, xxx (manuscript ready for submission).
Introduction❶
Outline
Evolution of Hydrological Modeling❷
Analyses on Observed Data❸
Development of a Distributed Biosphere-Hydrological Model❹
Evaluation of the DBH Model System❺
Long Term Change of Hydrological Cycles in the Yellow River Basin❻
Conclusions and Recommendations❼➢
Conclusions and Recommendations❼ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 34
Conclusions
1) A new generation hydrological model, DBH model, is developed and validated.
2) Spatial distribution of land characteristics and climate features can be captured by the DBH model with nontraditional datasets.
3) The new generation model can demonstrate the effects of natural and anthropogenic heterogeneity. Accounting for anthropogenic heterogeneity can simulate negative runoff contribution which cannot be represented by traditional models.
4) The DBH model was used to interpret the potential reasons for the Yellow River drying up. Climate change is dominated in upper/middle reaches, human activity is dominated in lower reaches. Climate pattern change rather than linear change is more important.
Recommendations
Conclusions and Recommendations❼ Tang, Qiuhong 7 Nov 2006 Slide 35
1) Data collection efforts would continuously benefit research on land surface hydrology. Hydrologists should improve communications with data maker community.
2) Model validation is needed for the new generation model. Data on the chemical composition of water can be used for modeling water flow paths.
3) Further, the model can extend to simulate hydrological cycle over the global land surface with global datasets. The ocean-land surface-atmosphere model system will explore and variability and predictability of climate and hydrological variations.
4) With the consideration of climate, biosphere, land surface hydrology and human activity, the new generation model has potential great societal benefits. The development and application of the new model will benefit both science and society.
Hydro Seminar @ Land surface hydrology group of UW
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/DBH/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/DBH/
Publications (Accepted and Published):
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Hu, H., 2006. A distributed biosphere hydrological model (DBHM) for large river basin. Ann. J. Hydraul. Eng. JSCE 50, 37-42.
Tang, Q., Oki, T., 2006. Daily NDVI relationship to cloud cover. J. Appl. Meteorol., accepted.
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Kanae, S., Hu, H., 2006. The influence of precipitation variability and partial irrigation within grid cells on a hydrological simulation. J. Hydromet., accepted.
Tang, Q., Oki, T., Kanae, S., Hu, H., 2006. A spatial analysis of hydro-climatic and vegetation condition trends in the Yellow River Basin. Hydrol. Process., accepted.
Tang, Q., Hu, H., Oki, T., Tian, F., 2006. Water balance within intensively cultivated alluvial plain in an arid environment. Water Resource Management., accepted.
Tang,Q., Hu, H., Oki, T., 2006. Groundwater recharge and discharge in a hyperarid alluvial plain (Akesu, Taklimakan Desert, China), Hydrological Processes, accepted.
Tang, Q., Hu, H., and Oki, T., Hydrological processes within an intensively cultivated alluvial plain in an arid environment, Sustainability of Groundwater Resources and its Indicators (Pro- ceedings of symposium S3 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS Publ. 302, 2006.
Tang, Q., Tian, F., and Hu, H., Runoff-evaporation hydrological model for arid plain oasis II: the model application, Shuikexue Jinzhan/Advances in Water Science, 15 (2): 146-150, 2004. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Hu, H., Tang, Q., Lei, Z., and Yang, S., Runoff-evaporation hydrological model for arid plain oasis I: the model structure, Shuikexue Jinzhan/Advances in Water Science, 15 (2): 140-145, 2004. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Land Surface Model
Surface layer
Root zone
Recharge zone
Canopy
Reference Height
Canopy Air Space
Groundwater
Inter-layer exchangesDue to gravitation and hydraulic gradient
Potential w3
Potential gw
GW - River Water Interaction
Roff1: adjust canopy/ground water and canopy snowRoff2: overland flow (SE95 D9)
Roff3: gravitationally driven drainage (SE86)Roff4: excess, adjust www(3)
Groundwater-soil water transfer:
Relationship between soil moisture potential and soil moisture:
(Clapp and Hornberger, 1978)
Sloping impermeable bed
Water table
ha
h'g
h''g
qg
s
hr
B
h
D
ll/2
θb
Groundwater-River Interaction
sincos
ds
dhhKq g
gs
sincos
2
''''''
ds
hhhhKq
gg gg
sincos
2tantan
cos
2 '''rga h
lhhh
lds
g
cos'''rag hhhh
g
Groundwater flow to a ditch over a sloping impermeable bed. Assuming that the flow lines are approximately parallel to the bed, according to the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximation, the flow of water per unit width of the river is estimated.
(Childs, 1971; Towner, 1975)
Overland flow on the Hillslope
Flow in river channel
ROFFs (qs)
RiverSLOPE ( S0 )
WaterDepth (hs)
Model Validation Criteria
Mean Error:
Relative Bias:
Mean Absolute Error:
Mean square error:
Relative RMSE:
Mean Square Skill Score:
(Murphy, 1988) Recommended by WMO.