ifty years after independence, Tanzania has yet to realize the rallying cries of its liberation movement “Uhuru Na Kazi” (freedom and jobs), or to defeat the three scourges of poverty, ignorance, and disease. Though well

intentioned, the efforts of Tanzania’s first president Julius Nyerere to reduce poverty and enhance social welfare failed to sustain economic growth, plunging the country

into prolonged crisis. In the 1980s, Tanzania started liberalizing its economy, and with the collapse of communism in the 1990s, the country instituted a multi-party system. Over the past two decades, Tanzania has seen increased economic growth and political openings, but high levels of poverty, corruption, and limited state capacity still pose critical challenges to inclusive development and democratic consolidation.

The writing of a new constitution now presents Tanzania with a fresh opportunity to build a foundation for achieving its independence goals of poverty eradication and political freedom. Tanzanians can make progress by: (1) forging alliances with domestic democratic forces; (2) exploiting the intense power struggle within the ruling party; and (3) taking advantage of the incumbent president’s interest in a democratic legacy. Through political will and popular participation, the country can effectively address its challenges and emerge as a true African success story.

—Ibrahim Lipumba, December 9, 2011

“F

”

D r . I b r a h i m L i p u m b a

R e a g a n - F a s c e l l D e m o c r a c y F e l l o wN a t i o n a l E n d o w m e n t f o r D e m o c r a c y

F r i d a y , D e c e m b e r 9 , 2 0 1 1

FROM UJAMAA TO DEMOKRASIA: REFLECTING on 50 YEARS of

INDEPENDENCE in TANZANIA and the WAY FORWARD

The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speakerand do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

I. Historical Background

II. Towards Ujamaa: Mwalimu Julius Nyerere (1962–1985)

III. Economic Crisis, Reform and Democratization

President Ali Hassan Mwinyi (1985–1995)

President Benjamin Mkapa (1995–2005)

President Jakaya Kikwete (2005–present)

IV. Consolidating Democracy and Development in Tanzania

3

I. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

German colony (1885–1918)

British Protectorate (1919–1961)

Nationalist Movement for Independence (1954–1961)

Tanganyika African National Union (TANU)

Democracy and Self-determination

Fighting the three scourges of ignorance, ill health, and poverty

Nationalist Motto – UHURU NA KAZI (Freedom and Jobs)

4

I. RAPID MOVEMENT FROM SELF-RULE TO COMPLETE INDEPENDENCE

5

Nyerere on arrival from London Independence Conference, 1960

Nyerere Sworn in as Tanganyika Chief Minister, 1959

Multi-party Westminster-style democracy dominated by TANU

126 ethnic groups with Kiswahili as the lingua franca

Two major religious groups – Muslims and Christians

Christian missionary schools dominated formal education

6

I. SOCIO-POLITICAL CONDITIONS AT INDEPENDENCE

Nyerere on Independence Day December 9, 1961

I. ECONOMIC INHERITANCE AT INDEPENDENCE

Dual economy Small modern sector and large subsistence peasant agriculture

Commerce dominated by Indian businesses Low levels of education and poor health services

East African Common Service Organization (Kenya, Tanganyika, Zanzibar, and Uganda)

Managed railways, ports, aviation, post and telecommunication, and income and customs duty

East African Common Currency Area East African Federation – political objective

7

I. UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT AT AN EAST AFRICAN FEDERATION

From left to right: President Kaunda of Zambia, President Nyerere of Tanzania, President Kenyatta of Kenya, and Premier of Uganda Obote, 1964 © Bettmann/CORBIS

8

1964–1977: TANU rules over Tanzania mainland and Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP) rules in Zanzibar

1977: Union of TANU and ASP, leading to the formation of the current ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM)

9

Julius Nyerere and Vice President AA Karume on Union Day, April 26, 1964

I. UNION OF TANGANYIKA AND ZANZIBAR (1964)

II. JULIUS NYERERE PRIOR TO UJAMAA (socialism)

Nyerere rules from 1961–85

Initially:

Moderate political leader (compared to Ghana’s Nkrumah)

Promotes a market-based economy

Seeks Foreign Direct Investment

TO UJAMAA (socialism)

10

From left to right: Sectary of State Dean Rusk, Julius Nyerere, and President J.F. Kennedy (1963)

© Getty Images

II. ARUSHA DECLARATION– UJAMAA in PRACTICE

1962: Ujamaa as state of mindo 1965: TANU one-party system 1967: Nationalization 1967–1973: Ujamaa villagesestablished 1971: Buildings Acquisition Act 1973–1975: Forced Villagization 1975: Basic Industrializationstrategy Nyerere meets with Chairman Mao,

1965

10

II. POLICY OBJECTIVES UNDER UJAMAA Poverty reduction and

equity through collective work Universal primary education Increased access to basic health services and clean water

Self-reliance and less dependence on aid

“Leadership Code” for politicians and civil servants Nyerere at a March hailing the Arusha

Declaration, 1967

11

II. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETBACKS

Overall poor economic performance Low GDP growth with decline in agricultural productivity

Large budget deficit

High inflation and overvalued exchange rate

Emergence of parallel markets

Unsustainable external debt

Aid dependence

Lack of structural transformation Peasant agriculture main source of employment

Low level of industrialization

Private sector and entrepreneurship discouraged

13

II. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1960–1985)

14

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

In 2005 PPP $

II. GROSS SCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATE (1970–1985)

15

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Primary

Secondary

%

II. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1960–1985)

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Under 5 deaths per 1000

II. POLITICAL SETBACKS

17

One-party authoritarian state Freedom House Classification: Not Free (1972–1994) Human Rights abuses during forced villagization

Lack of vibrant civil society Weak administrative capacity

Civil service, police and military linked to the ruling party (CCM)

II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENTNational Unity and Defeat of Idi Amin (Uganda)

18

Julius Nyerere meets with Idi Amin, 1974

Julius Nyerere celebrates after Kagera war victory, 1979

II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT Support for Liberation Movements in Southern Africa

19

President of Mozambique Samora Machel and Julius Nyerere of

Tanzania, 1975

Nelson Mandela, Julius Nyerere, and Winnie Mandela in Tanzania,

1990

II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT Tanzania Punches Above its Weight in International Affairs

20

Nyerere on March 1964 Cover of Time magazine

Nyerere with Indian PM Indira Gandhi, 1982

Nyerere with Indian PM Indira

21

II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT Peaceful transfer of power within

one-party dominant state

1985: Nyerere proposes two-term presidential limit

Nyerere steps down andis replaced by Mwinyi

1990: Nyerere steps down fromCCM leadership and callsfor multi-party elections

1995: Mwinyi steps down and isreplaced by Mkapa

2005: Mkapa steps down and isreplaced by Kikwete Nyerere bids farewell before flying to his village

to retire, 1985

party

Nyerere Nyerere N bids farewell before flying to his villvillv age

III. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION PRESIDENT ALI HASSAN MWINYI (1985–1995)

Gradual implementation ofStructural AdjustmentPrograms

Liberalized trade and foreign exchange market

Reintroduction of multi-party system

Yet:

Lack of development vision

High levels of corruption

(1985 1995)

President Mwinyi with Michael Jackson in Tanzania, 1992

21

III. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1985–1995)

23

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

In 2005 PPP $

III. GROSS SCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATE (1985–1995)

24

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Primary

Secondary

%

III. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1985–1995)

25

150

152

154

156

158

160

162

164

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Under-5 deaths per 1000

III. SHAKY TRANSITION TO MULTIPARTY SYSTEM (1992–1995)

26

Political Parties Act (1992) legalizes opposition parties Newly formed opposition parties include:

Civic United Front (CUF)

United Democratic Party (UDP)

Chama cha Demokrasia na

Maendeleo (CHADEMA)

National Convention for Construction and Reform-Mageuzi (NCCR-Mageuzi)

Mwinyi disregards Nyalali Commission’s recommendation for a new constitution

No separation between the state and the ruling party Civil society constrained by state institutions National Election Commission— neither independent nor competent

III. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS

Mkapa achieves macroeconomic stability through cash budget and increased aid

Restores government credibility to donors—debt cancellation

Privatizes state enterprises (except public utilities)

Increases foreign direct investment in mineral sector (yet narrow tax revenue for the state)

Increases primary school enrollment

PRESIDENT BENJAMIN MKAPA (1995–2005)

26

III. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1995–2005)

28

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

In 2005 PPP $

III. GROSS SCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATE (1985–1995)

29

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Primary

Secondary

%

III. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1995–2005)

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Under 5 deaths per 1000

III. MKAPA’S “CLEAN” IMAGE TARNISHED

31

Mkapa establishes a private business while president

Government purchases expensive presidential jet

Government purchases BAe Radar for $40 million instead of actual price of $5–8 million

$113 million stolen from the Central Bank in debt conversion scam

Privatization of state property to public officials and CCM leaders below market price

III. SUPPRESSION OF OPPOSITION PARTIES AND VOCAL CRITICS

32

Journalist and activist Jenerali Ulimwengu denied citizenship,

2001–2004

Opposition Party leaders attacked, 2001

Violence against the Opposition

Journalist and activist Jenerali

Revoking Citizenship Rights

III. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION PRESIDENT JAKAYA KIKWETE (2005–present)

Expensive election campaign financed by suspected corrupt sources

Election pledge to “better life for every Tanzanian” yet to be met

Weak and indecisive economic management

International Development Association Country Performance declines from 4th (2005) to 22nd (2010)

32

Cause for Concern

Lack of development vision Leadership vacuum Excessive travel abroad Lip service to fighting corruption Lip service to fighting corruption

34

Positive Gains

Strengthens parliamentary power Accepts resignation of corrupt PM Increases freedom of the press Accepts demand for new constitution

III. PRESIDENT KIKWETE (2005–present)

Accepts demand for new constitution

Chinese leader Hu Jintao, President Kikwete, and Dr. Lipumba, 2008

President Kikwete meets with British PM Gordon Brown, 2008

III. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1960–2009)

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

In 2005 PPP $

III. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1960–2010)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

19

60

19

61

19

62

19

63

19

64

19

65

19

66

19

67

19

68

19

69

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

36

Under-5 deaths per 1,000

III. GROSS PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL

ENROLLMENT RATE

37

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

197

0

197

1

197

2

197

3

197

4

197

5

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Primary

Secondary

%

IV. POVERTY: A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE

38

Poverty Indices 1992 2000 2007

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) % 72.6 88.5 67.9

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line % 38.6 35.6 33.4

GINI index (Measure of Inequality) 33.8 34.6 37.6

IV. TANZANIA’S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

Coastal country surrounded by six land-locked countries Vast agricultural potential

Only 9.6 million hectors utilized out of 35 million hectors

Tourist attractions

National parks, Mt. Kilimanjaro, beautiful beaches

Mineral resources Gold, diamonds, gemstone, nickel, natural gas, coal, iron-ore, and uranium

Population dividend

Convergence opportunities

39

40IV. TANZANIA’S CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Poverty

Corruption

Limited statecapacity

Low levels of humancapital

High populationgrowth

Low agriculturalproduction

Poor infrastructureDebilitated Infrastructure Debilitated Infrastructure

IV. STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT

Macroeconomic stability Conducive business environment Infrastructure development Structural transformation

Agriculture

Greenfield Special Economic Zones for manufacturing

Effectively exploiting natural resource wealth

Investing in human resource development

Taking advantage of information communication technology in education, health services, etc.

41

IV. TANZANIA’S DEMOCRACY AT A CROSSROADS

Democratic retrenchment can have dire consequences (e.g. Kenya and Ivory Coast)

President Kikwete is completing his last term in office. What will

be the President’s democratic legacy? Intense power struggle within CCM may promote democratization

if properly exploited President Kikwete has accepted the writing of a new constitution With political will, Tanzania can emerge as a democratic and

development-oriented state in Africa

42

IV. INSTITUTIONS FOR DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Competent and Independent National Electoral Commission Competent and Independent Judiciary Vibrant Civil Society A Professional Civil Service Comptroller and Auditor General Anti-Corruption Bureau Revenue Authority Effective Public Expenditure system

43

IV. CONSOLIDATING DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT

I. Establish strong governance institutions and open space for civil society through proposed constitutional review process

II. Take advantage of incumbent president’s last term and his interest in international recognition as a democratic leader

III. Forge alliances with democratic forces, including all serious political parties and factions within the ruling party and demand an independent and competent electoral body

IV. Propagate inclusive policies concerning poverty reduction and economic development

V. Build a national constituency committed to the promotion of equitable growth

44

Prof. Ibrahim Haruna Lipumba

THANK YOU

Prof. Ibrahim Haruna Lipumba

THANK YOU