5 question quiz on Chapter 6

1. Name one primary agent of political socialization.

2. What ideology is this?: People who believe government tries to do too many things that should be left to private interests and economic markets.

3. True or False: Men and women tend to have the same views on abortion.

4. I am a if I believe that government intervenes in too many things – both socially and economically.

5. The larger the sample size, the smaller the (two words).

Public Opinion & Political SocializationHow do we form political opinions?

How are our opinions measured?

Do our opinions matter?

Should public opinion control policy?

INSTA-POLL Question 1

How much do you support the troops?

• Lots

• Plenty

• Totally

• 110%

INSTA-POLL Question 2

How many poll responses do you usually read before they start to get annoying?

• One does the trick

• I don’t mind if there are two

• Three is a perfectly appropriate number

• Around four they start to get a bit grating

• Five, I would say, is probably pushing it

• Six responses is definitely too many

• At seven, I really get angry

• I will destroy you

What are the origins of public opinion?

• Public opinion is the attitudes and values people have about issues and events that they share publicly

• In the political realm, most Americans value equality of opportunity, liberty, democracy, and self-government

• How a person perceives the above values forms their political ideology

So how are these beliefs formed?

Political Socialization: How People “Learn” Politics

Primary Agents of Socialization:

• Family:

– 2/3 of children have the same beliefs as their parents

– Like religion (or the family’s favorite sports team)

• School:

– Elementary School: Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and others hailed as national heroes; pledge of allegiance, national holidays, national anthem

– Middle School: More nuanced, but still emphasis on leaders and institutions

– High School: Political processes, equality in the classroom

Secondary Agents of Socialization

• Social Groups

– Voluntary: Religion, professional groups, etc.

– Involuntary: Gender, age, race, ethnicity, etc.

• Higher Ed: increases tolerance to unpopular opinions and general political awareness; political activism

• Income: Higher income values more personal choice; lower income values more government control

• Region or “Red” and “Blue” America: Red America tends to be more rural than Blue America.

• Race: Is the “minority experience” in America different than the “white” experience? Click Here

• Gender (Gap): Women tend to be against war and military action; Men tend to be against affirmative action and social welfare programs Click here

• Media: The media creates a lens (sometimes skewed), through which we believe is true of society

Race Relations in America

Black Responses

Generally GoodGenerally BadDon't Know

White Responses

Generally GoodGenerally BadDon't Know

Men and Women: War and Peace

Government Action Men% Approving of

Action

Women%Approving of

Action

Going to war against Iraq (2003) 66 50

Prefer cease fire over NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia (1999)

44 51

Ending ban on DADT in (1993) 34 51

Military operation against Somali warlord 72 60

Going to war against Iraq (1991) 72 53

What about abortion?Men and Women are generally equally split pro-choice and pro-life

POLITICAL IDEOLOGYHow do we frame what we think?

Extra Credit

• Go to www.isidewith.com

• Take the quiz, answer all the extended questions too.

• Email me the results osborsj@d11.org by Sunday, October 28th at midnight.

• You get extra credit!

Party Identification

• A person’s sense of loyalty to one party or the other

• 2/3 of Americans call themselves Dems or Repubs

• Most loyalty lasts a lifetime

• Dems and Repubs differ significantly in their opinion

• Number one predictor of how people will vote

• Selective perception . . .

• Do we choose to watch/listen to/pay attention to those who speak our gospel?

• The Daily Show Lactate Intolerance

Partisanship and Issue Opinions

Political Ideology

• Consistent opinions about policy goals (rarely are we consistent)

• Economic and social policy questions

– What should be the government’s role in the economy?

– In social/cultural issues?

• Typically,

– Conservatives prefer less government intervention in the economy but want to use government power to uphold traditional cultural values

– The reverse is true of liberals

POLITICAL POLLINGGarbage In, Garbage Out.

Some key concepts about political polling

• Random Sampling – everyone has an equal chance of being polled

– Probability Sampling: About 1000 people is a big enough sample to represent the entire population of the US

– Sampling Error: the plus/minus factor for each poll; and each question

– Gallup polls have correctly predicted every presidential election since 1936 (except one: 1948)

• Exit polls: polling that measures election returns; can affect western time zones

• Straw polls: polling that informally measures a future outcome; like a caucus

Other polling concepts

• Bellwether Districts/States– Districts or States

that predict actual election outcomes with a high degree of accuracy

– Ohio

Obama’s Presidential Approval Ratings

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

What causes presidential approval ratings to increase or decrease?What Increases Ratings• Economic conditions if good

• After a major political event

– “The Bounce” McCain went from 45% to 50% after conventions

– Romney and the first debate: 36% had a better opinion of Romney after debate (18% for Obama)

• Use of the media, spin

– State of the Union, Addresses, etc.

• Crises: “rally around the flag” effect

What Decreases Ratings• Economic conditions if

bad

• Scandal

• Foreign policy if things are going bad

• Over time, ratings generally decrease

Clinton’s Job Approval Ratings

Bush’s Job Approval Ratings

Limitations of polls

• The change of phone use over time

• Asking questions on issues not considered by the person being polled

• Lying

• Question wording

• Question order: MPI

• Polls are funded by groups who have an interest in knowing certain information

Double Barreled Questions

• Questions that group topics may weaken results, consider the following:

– Please tell me whether you would vote for or against a candidate who supports reducing federal funding spending on education and welfare

Loaded Questions (Push Polling)

• "John McCain calls the campaign finance system corrupt, but as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, he raises money and travels on the private jets of corporations with legislative proposals before his committee. In view of this, are you much more likely to vote for him, somewhat more likely to vote for him, somewhat more likely to vote against him or much more likely to vote against him?"

Confusing Questions

• Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?

– What does “yes” mean?

Reliability Check Case Study: Abortion Question Construction Matters; Consider the following

With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro-choice or pro-life? (2005, CNN/USA Today Poll)

51% Pro-choice

42% Pro-life

3% Mixed/Neither

3% Don’t know what that term means

1% No opinion

This is considered a “dichotomous question,” because there are really only two responses

What happens when the wording and options are changed?

Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only in certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances? (2005, Gallup Poll)

23% Legal under any circumstances

53% Legal only under certain circumstances

22% Illegal in all circumstances

2% No opinion

How have the results changed from the first question to this one?

When there are three options, the public takes the middle ground (in this case)

Outcomes change again, with a new question:

Which of the following best represents your views about abortion – the choice on abortion should be left up to the woman and her doctor, abortion should be legal only in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman’s life is at risk, or abortion should be illegal in all circumstances? (2005 NBC News/WSJ Poll)

55% Should be left up to the woman and her doctor

29% Legal only in cases of rape/incest/life is at risk

14% Illegal in all circumstances

2% Not sure

Our test:

• Placement of the MPI question

– First on yellow sheet; last on blue sheet

• Opinion of Congress (Yellow)/President (Blue)

– Hypothesis is that opinion of Congress will be lower than the President

• Whether there is a gender gap

– Will females and males differ in their responses?

2011-2012: Right/Wrong Direction, Male/Female

Right Wrong IDK N/A0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

MalesFemales

2011-2012: Obama Approval, Male/Female

Approve Disapprove IDK N/A0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

MenWomen

2011-2012: Congress Approval, Male/Female

Approve Disapprove IDK N/A0

5

10

15

20

25

30

MalesFemales

Obama/Congress, Men/Women, Approval

Appr

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Obama/Congress: Immigration

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Obama/Congress: Healthcare

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Obama/Congress: Economy

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MOST PRESSING ISSUE 2011-2012

Yellow Sheet (first question)• Economy

• Unemployment

• Healthcare

Blue Sheet (last question)• Economy

• Jobs

• Healthcare

Period 6 Overall Results (Yellow Sheet) 2010-2011

Right

dire

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ApproveDisapproveIDKNo Answer

Period 6 Overall Results (Blue Sheet) 2010-2011

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Period 7 Overall Results: (Yellow Sheet) 2010-2011

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ApproveDisapproveIDKNo Answer

Period 7 Results: (Blue Sheet) 2010-2011

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Blue v. Yellow: Obama’s ratings v. Congress’ ratings

Economy Immigration Healthcare0

5

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35

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45

Obama p.6Obama p.7Congress p.6Congress p.7

Top Four Most Pressing Issues 2010-2011

Yellow Sheet P. 6• Economy

• Healthcare

• I don’t know

• War

Blue Sheet P. 6• Economy

• Healthcare

• War

• Education

Most Pressing Issue Period 7

Yellow Sheet p.7• Economy

• Healthcare

• Immigration

• War

Blue Sheet p.7• Healthcare

• Economy

• Border Issues

• Budget

So, do public opinion polls really matter?

• They do:

– Study of 50 years of polling data shows that when public opinion changes, policy usually changed too

– Between 1935 and 1979, in two-thirds of all cases, policy changes followed the mood of the public

– So do politicians pander to the public?

They don’t. (Most of the time.)

• Some issues are too sharply divided

– Abortion

– Illegal Immigration

• Some issues are too complex for consistent opinion

– Federal Budget

• Some issues are misunderstood

– War in Iraq

– Healthcare legislation

– “Occupy Wall Street”

• Chicken and egg: Does opinion influence policy or does policy influence opinion? The problem is that neither are “fixed.”

Congress and Public Opinion

• Congress members’ voting decisions are enhanced by public opinion polls when:

– Congress members perceive that they have a duty to their constituents to represent their constituents’ wishes

– Congress members have an ambition to get re-elected

• Congress members voting decisions are limited by public opinion polls when:

– Congress members want to avoid being perceived as indecisive by their supporters

– Congress members want to avoid losing the support of their party

So, after all that, how do you answer the following?

• How do we form political opinions?

• How are our opinions measured?

• Do our opinions matter?

• Does public opinion control policy?