3 Financial Forecasting

8/2/2019 3 Financial Forecasting

1/17

1IIS

Ch. 4: Financial Forecasting,

Planning, and Budgeting


2/17

2IIS

Tujuan Pembelajaran

Mahasiswa mampu untuk:Menggunakan metode persentase penjualan untuk

meramal kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaanMenjelaskan ketrbatasan metode persentase penjualan

Menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan perusahaan yang

berkelanjutan

Membuat anggaran kas dan menggunakannya untukmengevaluasi jumlah dan waktu yang kebutuhan

pembiayaan perusahaan

Memahami jenis-jenis anggaran dan proses penyusunan

anggaran


3/17

3IIS

Pokok Bahasan

Peramalan keuangan

Keterbatasan Metode Peramalan Persentase

Penjualan

Tingkat Pertumbauhan Berkelanjutan

Perencanaan Keuangan dan Pengaanggaran


4/17

4IIS

Financial Forecasting

1) Project sales revenues and

expenses.


5/17

5IIS

Financial Forecasting

Project sales revenues and expenses.

Estimate current assets and fixedassets necessary to support projected

sales.

Percent of sales forecast


6/17

6IIS

Percent of Sales Method

Suppose this years sales will total

$32 million.

Next year, we forecast sales of$40 million.

Net income should be 5% of sales.

Dividends should be 50% of

earnings.


7/177IIS

This year % of $32m

Assets

Current Assets $8m 25%Fixed Assets $16m 50%

Total Assets $24m

Liab. and Equity

Accounts Payable $4m 12.5%

Accrued Expenses $4m 12.5%

Notes Payable $1m n/a

Long Term Debt $6m n/a

Total Liabilities $15m

Common Stock $7m n/a

Retained Earnings $2m

Equity $9m

Total Liab. & Equity $24m


8/178IIS

Next year % of $40m

Assets

Current Assets 25%Fixed Assets 50%

Total Assets

Liab. and Equity

Accounts Payable 12.5%

Accrued Expenses 12.5%

Notes Payable n/a

Long Term Debt n/a

Total Liabilities

Common Stock n/a

Retained Earnings

Equity

Total Liab. & Equity


9/179IIS

Next year % of $40m

Assets


Total Assets $30m

Liab. and Equity






Common Stock $7m n/a

Retained Earnings

Equity



10/1710IIS

Predicting Retained Earnings

Next years projected retained earnings = last

years $2 million, plus:

projected net income cash dividends)

sales sales net income )

$40 million x .05 x (1 - .50)

= $2 million + $1 million = $3million

x x ( 1 -


11/1711IIS

Next year % of $40m

Assets


Total Assets $30m

Liab. and Equity






Common Stock $7m n/aRetained Earnings $3m

Equity


% $


12/1712IIS

Next year % of $40m

Assets

Current Assets $10m 25%

Fixed Assets $20m 50%Total Assets $30m

Liab. and Equity


Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/a


Total Liabilities $17mCommon Stock $7m n/a


Equity $10m


How muchDiscretionary

Financing

will weNeed?

N % f $40


13/1713IIS

Next year % of $40m

Assets

Current Assets $10m 25%

Fixed Assets $20m 50%Total Assets $30m

Liab. and Equity


Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/a


Total Liabilities $17mCommon Stock $7m n/a


Equity $10m


How muchDiscretionary

Financing

will weNeed?


14/1714IIS

Predicting Discretionary

Financing Needs

Discretionary Financing Needed =

projected projected projectedtotal - total - ownersassets liabilities equity

$30 million - $17 million - $10 million

= $3 million in discretionary financing


15/1715IIS

Sustainable Rate of Growth

g* = ROE (1 - b) where

b = dividend payout ratio(dividends / net income)

ROE = return on equity

(net income / common equity) or

net income sales assets

sales assets common equity

ROE = x x


16/1716IIS

Budgets

Budget: a forecast of future events.


17/17

17IIS

Budgets

Budgets indicate the amount and

timing offuture financing needs.

Budgets provide a basis for takingcorrective action if budgeted and

actual figures do not match.

Budgets provide the basis for

performance evaluation.

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3 Financial Forecasting