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28 September 2020 HSIE Chemical Conference HSIE Chemical Conference HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters We hosted a CXO-Chemical Conference-2020 and invited senior management of seven listed chemical and agrochemical companies and an industry expert. The nationwide lockdown impacted operations of the majority of chemical companies in 1QFY21, but the pick-up was rapid in 2Q. Plants are currently operating at the utilisation of 70-90% of the pre-COVID level. Plant utilisations of companies that cater to end-user industries engaged in essential services such as pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals are higher. Companies are continuing with their Capex plans despite the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, owing to a positive demand outlook. Most of the companies believe that the Indian chemical industry is in a sweet spot given: (1) the opportunity arising out of 'China Plus One' policy of MNCs and the government, (2) rising domestic demand, and (3) export opportunity. Domestic raw material availability for chemical and pharma companies will increase as downstream oil players start producing more petrochemical intermediates. The recently announced "Production Linked Incentive Scheme" for domestic manufacturing of critical Key Starting Materials/Drug Intermediates and APIs will support the growth of the chemical industry. The Indian government has been very proactive and is planning various policies which would act as tailwinds for the industry's long term growth. Indian chemical companies have to invest in technology, focus on backward integration, and collaborate amongst themselves to capitalise favourable macro. This corroborates our stance on the Indian speciality chemical companies (see our report link ). Aarti Industries and Alky Amines are our top picks amongst our speciality coverage universe. Following is the participant list: Companies Participants Designation Aarti Industries Mr Chetan Gandhi CFO Alkyl Amines Mr Yogesh Kothari Mr Kirat Patel C&MD ED Balaji Amines Mr Ram Reddy MD Bodal Chemicals Mr Ankit Patel Mr Mayur Padhya ED CFO Galaxy Surfactants Mr K Natarajan ED & COO Meghmani Organics Mr Ankit Patel Mr Gurjant Singh Chahal CEO CFO Sharda Cropchem Mr Ramprakash Bubna C&MD Daga Global Chemicals Mr Satyen Daga (Industry Expert) MD Company Reco TP Upside (%) Aarti Industries BUY 1,320 31.2 Alkyl Amines BUY 4,010 27.1 Balaji Amines BUY 980 20.8 Galaxy Surfactants BUY 2,070 13.7 Navin Fluorine ADD 2,210 9.4 SRF BUY 5,120 25.3 Vinati Organics SELL 890 (30.2) Nilesh Ghuge [email protected] +91-22-6171-7342 Harshad Katkar [email protected] +91-22-6171-7319 Divya Singhal [email protected] +91-22-6171-7348 Rutvi Chokshi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7356

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Page 1: 28 September 2020 HSIE Chemical Conference HSIE Chemical … Conference - Sep20... · Demand for the product remains elevated as it is a preferred solvent by end-user companies. The

28 September 2020 HSIE Chemical Conference

HSIE Chemical Conference

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

We hosted a CXO-Chemical Conference-2020 and invited senior management

of seven listed chemical and agrochemical companies and an industry expert.

The nationwide lockdown impacted operations of the majority of chemical

companies in 1QFY21, but the pick-up was rapid in 2Q. Plants are currently

operating at the utilisation of 70-90% of the pre-COVID level. Plant

utilisations of companies that cater to end-user industries engaged in essential

services such as pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals are higher. Companies are

continuing with their Capex plans despite the implications of the COVID-19

pandemic, owing to a positive demand outlook. Most of the companies

believe that the Indian chemical industry is in a sweet spot given: (1) the

opportunity arising out of 'China Plus One' policy of MNCs and the

government, (2) rising domestic demand, and (3) export opportunity.

Domestic raw material availability for chemical and pharma companies will

increase as downstream oil players start producing more petrochemical

intermediates. The recently announced "Production Linked Incentive Scheme"

for domestic manufacturing of critical Key Starting Materials/Drug

Intermediates and APIs will support the growth of the chemical industry. The

Indian government has been very proactive and is planning various policies

which would act as tailwinds for the industry's long term growth. Indian

chemical companies have to invest in technology, focus on backward

integration, and collaborate amongst themselves to capitalise favourable

macro. This corroborates our stance on the Indian speciality chemical

companies (see our report link).

Aarti Industries and Alky Amines are our top picks amongst our speciality

coverage universe.

Following is the participant list:

Companies Participants Designation

Aarti Industries Mr Chetan Gandhi CFO

Alkyl Amines Mr Yogesh Kothari

Mr Kirat Patel

C&MD

ED

Balaji Amines Mr Ram Reddy MD

Bodal Chemicals Mr Ankit Patel

Mr Mayur Padhya

ED

CFO

Galaxy Surfactants Mr K Natarajan ED & COO

Meghmani Organics Mr Ankit Patel

Mr Gurjant Singh Chahal

CEO

CFO

Sharda Cropchem Mr Ramprakash Bubna C&MD

Daga Global Chemicals Mr Satyen Daga

(Industry Expert) MD

Company Reco TP Upside

(%)

Aarti Industries BUY 1,320 31.2

Alkyl Amines BUY 4,010 27.1

Balaji Amines BUY 980 20.8

Galaxy Surfactants BUY 2,070 13.7

Navin Fluorine ADD 2,210 9.4

SRF BUY 5,120 25.3

Vinati Organics SELL 890 (30.2)

Nilesh Ghuge

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7342

Harshad Katkar

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7319

Divya Singhal

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7348

Rutvi Chokshi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7356

Page 2: 28 September 2020 HSIE Chemical Conference HSIE Chemical … Conference - Sep20... · Demand for the product remains elevated as it is a preferred solvent by end-user companies. The

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Aarti Industries (CMP: INR 1,006 , TP: INR 1,320, RECO: BUY)

Key Takeaways:

Aarti Industries is a leading Indian manufacturer of speciality chemicals and

pharmaceuticals with a global footprint. It derives 84% of its revenues from the speciality

chemicals segment and 16% from the pharmaceutical segment. Chemicals manufactured

by Aarti are used in the downstream manufacture of pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals,

polymers, additives, surfactants, pigments, dyes, etc. In terms of end-user industries, the

company derives 60% of its revenues from pharmaceutical, agrochemical and FMCG

industries and 40% from dyes, pigments, polymer additives and other industries.

Since most (60%) of the company's business caters to the pharma and agrochemical

industries which belong to the essential services category, COVID-19 pandemic only

impacted it positively. However, the remainder businesses did suffer as the discretionary

spends fell due to the pandemic. The maximum impact of the pandemic was felt during

1QFY21 after which demand picked up. Discretionary spending now has increased, and

hence the non-essential services business is recovering gradually. Blended plant utilisation

has inched up from 50% in April to 90% in September. Nitrotoluene and hydrogenation

plants are operating at 60-70% capacities currently.

The company expects a flattish growth of PAT in FY21. However, the growth trajectory of

bottom-line for the next 2-3 years maintained at 15-20% p.a.

Capex guidance for FY21 is INR 1000-1200 crores. Commissioning of plants has been

delayed due to pandemic led disruptions, but investments to be continued with the same

intensity. Chlorination plant to be commissioned in the current quarter. NCB project to be

commissioned in FY22.

For grasping the import substitution and export opportunities, the Indian chemical

industry needs to invest heavily in R&D and technology. India has the most extensive set

of a skilled young workforce, and financing is not a problem for chemical companies in

the current scenario. There exists much scope for Indian companies in the speciality

chemicals space globally.

Aarti Industries is committed to working on complex and higher value chemistries to

exploit import substitution and export penetration. The company has 4 R&D centres

operating in India. It plans to continue to cater to the current end-user industries and not

foray into newer ones.

Photochlorination project is at a drawing board stage. The company will take at least 24

months to disclose any concrete developments on the same. This is because it will take

significant time in process development and technology selection.

Agrochemicals business is doing really well globally owing to higher demand for food-

based products and stable weather conditions, unlike last year.

The pharmaceutical business consists of three sub-segments: APIs, intermediates and

xanthine derivatives. There exist 3 plants that manufacture APIs and intermediates from

which 2 are US FDA approved, and 1 is a WHO-approved GMP. The company plans to

add blocks in these plants to enhance capacity by 25% in the near term. Pharma business

to grow at 20%. The company is optimistic above its pharmaceuticals business and expects

it to clock in 18-22% EBITDA margins in the longer term.

Europe region's business is stable as of now.

Mr C. Gogri, promoter, has been selling some of his stake recently to honour his

philanthropic commitments.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Alkyl Amines (CMP: INR 3,155, TP: INR 4,010 , RECO: BUY)

Key Takeaways:

The beneficiary of the Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme: Domestic raw material availability

for chemical and pharma companies will increase as downstream oil players start

producing more petrochemical intermediates. Cheaper raw materials will lead to higher

production by local pharma players, in turn, resulting in an increased requirement for

amines. This will help to expand to newer products as well as raise sales of existing

products for Alkyl Amines.

Production-linked scheme for chemical companies: The scheme, which is soon to be

announced, will reward the chemical industry in terms of lower duties, raw material

prices if companies meet the specified investment targets. This will result in a massive

advantage for the domestic manufacturing industry in terms of cheaper raw material

sourcing and sales growth.

Anticipated sales growth: The management expects sales growth to be north of 10-15%

YoY for next 2-3 years going by the historic trend coupled with Government policies such

as Make in India that should push the pharma sector, in turn benefiting AACL.

Acetonitrile:

1. Prices: Despite Chinese players having resumed production, prices for Acetonitrile

remain elevated (current per kg price is between USD 3.5-4 or INR 250-300). Hence,

the management expects the current prices to continue at least for at least a few

quarters.

2. Global and domestic market size: The global market stands at about 150K tons,

whereas the domestic market size for the product is at 20-25K tons. Currently,

domestic demand is mostly met by imports.

3. Domestic market share: Primary players in the domestic market are Deepak Nitrile,

Balaji Amines and Alkyl Amines (40% market share).

4. Capacity expansion: The additional capacity of 18K tons should come onstream by

1HFY22, taking the total capacity to 26-30ktpa at the company level.

DMA-HCL: The drug finds application in treating diabetes. The company is witnessing a

growth of 15-20% YoY and anticipates to add two additional plants over the next 2 years

to meet this demand.

Methyl Amines: The expansion is on track, and the additional capacity should on stream

by Dec-20.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Balaji Amines (CMP: INR 811, TP: INR 980, RECO: BUY)

Key Takeaways:

▪ Atmanirbhar Bharat: 300+ chemicals have been identified where benefits will be

announced if investments made are made by way of greenfield expansion. Balaji would be

a beneficiary of this policy for their greenfield expansion at Solapur. Phase II of this

expansion will start soon to avail the benefits of the Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme.

▪ Impact of the COVID-19: The pandemic has taught an important lesson to countries,

wherein they should be self-sufficient in terms of manufacturing to expect good growth.

The coronavirus disease has created many opportunities in the pharma space; for instance,

Ethyl amines finds application in the COVID-19 vaccine.

▪ Balaji Specialty Chemicals (BSCL): (1) Balaji's subsidiary (stake: 55%) is engaged in the

manufacture of Ethylenediamine (EDA), Piperazine (PIP), Diethylenetriamine (DETA),

among other speciality chemicals. Imports meet the current domestic demand for these

products. India currently imports 29ktpa of EDA and Balaji's capacity would be 20-22ktpa.

India presently imports 7-8ktpa of PIP whereas Balaji would have a capacity of 6-7ktpa.

The company's capacity for DETA would equal India's imports of 3ktpa.

▪ Tax benefits for BSCL and greenfield expansion: 50% GST refund and concession of INR

1 per unit on the power bill.

▪ Capacity utilisation: Balaji's production level has recovered to pre-pandemic levels with

Ethyl amines having surpassed those levels. Utilisation levels for Specialty chemicals,

however, continue to be low at 30% at present but should recover to 40% from Q3

onwards. DMF prices have improved, courtesy the Anti-Dumping duty, which has further

boosted utilisation levels.

▪ Acetonitrile: Expanded capacity to reach 9ktpa by Nov-20. Demand for the product

remains elevated as it is a preferred solvent by end-user companies.

▪ The hotel business: BAL paid INR 0.5-0.6mn as fixed costs for August in the absence of

sufficient revenue. 20-30% of the hotel is operational now. This level should rise to >60%

once the trains start functioning.

▪ Margin guidance: The management is confident of sustaining an EBITDA margin

between 18-20% given the current robust demand.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Bodal Chemicals (CMP: INR 68, NOT RATED)

Key takeaways:

▪ Bodal Chemicals is a fully-integrated manufacturer of dyestuff and dye intermediates and

is a global leader in these products. Its segmental mix consists of: (1) Dye intermediates

(41% of total revenue, 33,000 mtpa installed capacity with 82% utilisation and 25

products), (2) Dyestuff (39% of total revenue, 35,000 mtpa, 54% utilisation and 175

products), and (3) Sulphur and bulk chemicals (11% of total revenue, 2,26,000 mtpa, 88%

utilisation and 12 products). The main raw materials used by the company are aniline,

sulphur, PNCB, caustic soda and chlorine. It caters to the textile, leather, paper and water

treatment industries. It holds a 3%/13% global/domestic market share in dyestuff and a

6%/20% global/domestic market share in dye intermediates. Exports form 41% of the top-

line.

▪ Key growth drivers: (1) Dyestuff (powder) capacity was increased by 18000 mtpa in the

last 2 years, (2) Spike in production of liquid dyes owing to a robust demand from paper

and packaging industries, (3) Strategic investments in subsidiaries, (4) TCCA with strong

demand from the US will now be produced at the newly established Trion chemical plant,

(5) Increased focus on speciality chemicals, and (6) Expansions in margins due to the

increasing share of B2C in dyestuff across the world.

▪ May and June were difficult times for the business, given the COVID-19 crisis. Growth

picked up from July, and from August onwards operations were back on track. Demand

has improved from August, and product prices have surged. Currently, the company is

operating at ~75-80% utilisation level.

▪ Smaller players will remain in business, but will not be competitive and will witness flat

growth. Those who consolidate and integrate will command better margins and growth.

Bodal to focus on backward integration and branding in the dyestuff business locally to

gain market share.

▪ The vinyl sulphur plant (6000 TPA) is ready, but due to the low demand courtesy COVID-

19 pandemic, Bodal will wait for the demand to increase and then start its operations, not

taking a hit on the prices. The plant is expected to be commissioned by Dec'20.

▪ The trion chloride plant's commissioning was delayed earlier due to technical issues,

which now is operational with a current capacity of ~500 tons per month. The US is the

biggest market for this product. The revenue potential of this project is INR 60-100 crores

p.a. Owing to benign raw material prices, margins to remain elevated in the short term,

eventually stabilising to ~15-20%.

▪ Bodal is studying organic chemical chains to expand its business further and has

earmarked INR 300-500 crores for the same.

▪ Bodal acquired 80% stake in a Turkish entity named Sener Boya in Aug 2019. Sener Boya

has been operating since the past 20 years and covers most of the Turkish market. It has

currently achieved a production level of ~250 mt per month which this shall rise to ~300-

350 mt per month in 3-4 months' time period. There exists high demand from

neighbouring countries too.

▪ The working capital blockage has reduced by INR 50 crores during the last 4-5 months as

the company has gotten collections regularly despite the nationwide lockdown. Working

capital will further improve as prices are increasing and volumes are rising. Working

capital will reach the pre-COVID level in the next 3-4 months.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Galaxy Surfactants (CMP: INR 1,821 , TP: INR 2,070 , RECO: BUY)

Key Takeaways:

Healthy demand for performance surfactants: Given the high emphasis on hygiene

factors, consumer behaviour has changed for the long haul. The 8% YoY jump in

performance surfactants is testament to this fact. The lockdown had impacted operations

in 1QFY21; however, the pick-up was rapid in the last 50 days on the quarter. 2Q has

been less challenging, and the company has been running with 70-75% employee

strength. Demand was never adversely impacted and continues to be robust. Inventory

levels are healthy and rural demand is recovering as well. The growth seems sustainable.

Strategies employed to overcome the supply-side challenges: Production runs have

been rejigged depending on availability of people and demand. Customer demand is

assessed on a weekly basis, given the lack of more extended time clarity because of the

pandemic. The volatility of demand is being managed efficiently by higher vendor and

customer engagement. The company is constantly looking for stimulus to manage

operations efficiently.

Speciality care products: A restriction on free-movement in most countries has resulted

in low demand for speciality care products since these products find application

primarily in personal care formulations. Big MNC players have indicated the adverse

impact on beauty care because of work from home and travel restrictions. As these

restrictions ease, demand will pick up. Online channels, however, continue to see good

demand because of ease of delivery.

Demand intact in the AMET market: As these countries managed the pandemic well

and had no lockdowns, the company's Egypt plant remained fully functional. The low

base also helps show impressive growth in this market.

Raw material availability has not been a challenge: The company is well-positioned to

have a regular supply of materials, courtesy its strategic vendor partnerships. As 50-60%

of the company's raw material is imported, the team has had to stay vigilant to manage

the timely delivery of materials.

Capex guidance: INR 20bn is planned to be incurred over the next 3 years in total.

Capacity availability is key for the company to meet any additional demand. It becomes

important to expand capacity to beat the competition. MNCs in the Home and Personal

Care (HPC) space are highly dependent on China for raw material sourcing, and it is

difficult for India to match China's scale, but Galaxy wants to be prepared for any such

disruptions.

Competition: While global surfactant manufacturers produce a diverse range of

products, Galaxy focuses only on the HPC category. Companies with whom Galaxy's

product categories overlap are- BASF (global presence), Stepan (the US comprises 75%

revenue mix), Clariant (prominent player in Asia and Europe) and Godrej and Aarti

Surfactants in India.

Customer mix: Tier 1 and Tier 2 customers were the fastest to bounce back after the

pandemic hit. Tier 3 customers were the most impacted because of lower ability to

manage working capital cycles, but demand by most of these players stabilised by July.

Of the T3 customers, companies with an online presence were comparatively insulated.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Meghmani Organics (CMP: INR 78 , NOT RATED)

Key Takeaways:

Meghmani Organics Limited is an India-based manufacturer of pigment and pesticide

products. Its vision is to become one of the leading diversified chemical companies in

"Organic Chemistry" globally. The company’s segments are: (1) Pigments (29% of total

revenues), (2) Agrochemicals (44%), and (3) Chlor Alkali & its derivatives (27%).

Meghmani is amongst the top 3 global phthalocyanine-based pigment players and holds

a 14% global market share.

The pigment/agrochemical/chlor alkali segment has a 15/18/30% EBITDA margin.

Blended EBITDA margin of the business is in the range of 21-23%, and the company aims

to sustain the same and keep it above industry standards.

Currently, the company is operating at 80% of its capacity. It plans to maintain its debt-

equity ratio at 0.6x and networking capital cycle at 90-100 days.

Asset turnover ratio in the pigment/agrochemical/chlor alkali segment is 3/3/1x. With the

addition of value-added products in the chlor alkali segment, the asset turnover to

increase to 2x in the near term.

Meghmani's long term plan for the agrochemical segment is to achieve a top-line of INR

2,000 crores by FY23. To do so, it plans to incur the following Capex:

Project Capex (INR Cr) Expected date of

completion

Expected revenue generation

(INR Cr)

2.4 D (Capacity-10k TPA) 127 3QFY21 200

Formulation Plant 25 3QFY21 150

Multi-Purpose Plant (New molecules) 310 4QFY22 600

Total 462

950

Meghmani's long term plan for the chlor alkali & its derivatives segment is to achieve a

top-line of INR 2,000 crores by FY23. This will be achieved as benefits start accruing from

the recently completed projects and committing to new investments listed below:

Project Capacity Date of

commissioning

Expected revenue generation

(INR Cr)

Epichlorohydrin 50k TPA 4QFY22 475

CPVC Resin 30k TPA 3QFY23 300

The company currently makes blue and green pigments that cater to printing ink, plastic

and paints industries. Printing ink is losing its relevance, given the shift to digital media

and the paints industry's demand is minimal. There exist great opportunities post

COVID-19 pandemic in the packaging ink, and plastics industries and the company

would like to shift its focus on catering their demand. Hence, rather than expanding

capacities of the current pigments, the company wants to foray into newer pigments that

will add value and volumes.

The company plans on funding its Capex via its internal funds and borrowing debt as the

cost of debt has reduced. No plans to raise equity in the near future.

The company plans to focus highly on backward integration.

Meghmani Organics Ltd plans to demerge its subsidiary- Meghmani Finechem Ltd

which holds the chlor alkali and its derivatives business. The company has received the

approval for the same from SEBI, and this restructuring is expected to be completed by

1QFY22. Demerged company too shall be listed on the stock exchanges.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Sharda Cropchem (CMP: INR 257 , NOT RATED)

Key Takeaways:

▪ About the company: Sharda Cropchem is a fast-growing global agrochemicals company

with a leadership position in the generic crop protection chemicals industry. It has made

deep inroads in the highly developed European and US markets which are characterised

as high entry barrier markets. It also has a significant presence in other regulated markets

such as LATAM and Rest of the World. The company's core competence lies in

developing product dossiers and seeking product registrations in different countries. The

company not only has an extensive distribution network of third-party distributors but

has also set up its own sales force in various countries in Europe and Mexico, Colombia,

South Africa and India. Its product portfolio in agrochemical business comprises of

formulations and generic active ingredients in fungicide, herbicide and insecticide

segments for protecting a different kind of crops as well as serves turf and speciality

markets and in biocide segment as disinfectants thereby allowing it to offer a varied range

of formulations and generic active ingredients. The product portfolio in non-agrochemical

business comprises of belts, general chemicals, dyes and dye intermediates.

▪ No impact of the lockdown on the company's performance: The company is dependent

on China for its raw material sourcing. Since the Chinese factories resumed production in

Feb-20, Sharda Cropchem's performance has remained stable despite the country-wide

lockdown in India.

▪ Impact of the US-China trade war: The company is facing challenges as a result of the

trade tensions between China and the US, but the European and other markets are

unaffected. American importers have to pay higher for goods, and they pass it on to

farmers. Farmers, however, are unable to pass it on to their customers. This has resulted in

high alertness among distributors and retailers to keep higher inventories.

▪ Weather conditions in European markets: Dry weather pattern in some European

countries has reduced the demand for agrochemicals. This would have a 10-15% impact

on Sharda Chemicals' top-line.

▪ 10-15% revenue growth expected: The management is confident that the revenue will be

able to grow at a CAGR of 10-15% over the next 3 years, led by an increasing number of

registrations.

▪ Seasonality of business: 1H of the calendar year is seasonally stronger for Sharda

Cropchem, Jan-Mar quarter being the best, followed by the Apr-June quarter. Agricultural

activities slow with the onset of winter, so the company's business is the weakest in Sept-

Dec quarter.

▪ Registrations: The number of registrations mainly drives the company's business. COVID

hasn't impacted the registration space at all. In March 2020, the company had 1230

registrations in EU, 210 in NAFTA, 748 in LATNAM and 235 in RoW. In June 2020, gross

registrations reached 2440 as compared to 2418 in March. The company expects to grow

continuously and increase registrations going forward.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Global Daga Chemicals (UNLISTED , NOT RATED)

Key Takeaways:

▪ Daga Global Chemicals Pvt. Ltd. (DGCPL), established in 1985, is a rapidly growing

chemicals supply and distribution company, widely networked in India since 1985, with

overseas sourcing and marketing arm at Shanghai, China. Its products are bulk and fine

chemicals, solvents, intermediates, agro and pharmaceutical raw materials, polymers, etc.

It mainly caters to the chemical, pharmaceutical, agrochemical, paints & pigments and

polymer industries.

▪ China works because of the government, and India works despite the government.

China's government has been proactive for years, and this is one of the key reasons for the

Chinese chemical industry's phenomenal growth and success. Post the outbreak of

COVID-19, China has already implemented a 15-point agenda for supporting its chemical

industry throughout the value chain. Currently, Chinese chemical companies' monthly

business is growing on year on year basis.

▪ India's chemical industry is in a sweet spot, given the import substitution opportunity and

export opportunity. Due to the ongoing trade tensions with China post-COVID-19, a lot of

demand is seen to be shifting to India, especially from the US, Europe and Japan. In order

to exploit this opportunity, Indian companies need to invest heavily in improving their

technology, focus on backward integration, collaborate amongst themselves and help and

grow MSMEs & SMEs.

▪ Indian chemical industry needs to stick together, and big chemical companies should try

to source their raw materials locally from MSMEs/SMEs rather than importing the same

from China. Oil majors expanding their capacities in India along with foraying into the

petrochemicals space will solidify feedstock availability making raw material costs lower

for the industry. Key starting materials (KSM) are currently being sourced from Europe

and China. These need to be developed in India using advanced technology to make India

more competitive globally.

▪ India, in terms of pollution control, is way ahead of China, although there exists an

enormous scope of improvement in HSE compliance. Companies need to give priority to

the same.

▪ Basic chemicals, when processed using complex technology, yield speciality chemicals.

Speciality chemicals is one of the best areas to venture in for Indian chemical companies.

▪ Aarti, SRF, PI and Vinati Organics are investing heavily in building their R&D

capabilities. India needs many more such companies to expand the industry and take a

more significant share of the global pie. In terms of growth prospects, SRF, Vinati

Organics, Atul, Alkyl Amies and Paushak seem to be very well placed.

▪ Significant investments are expected in South India by pharmaceutical companies, and in

North and West India by agrochemical companies.

▪ The Indian government has been very proactive in the past 4-5 months and is planning to

come up with various policies that will help the chemical industry to clock in exponential

growth in the future. The government also needs to focus on increasing the ease of doing

business in India to attract foreign investments.

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Financials INR mn

Company

Revenue EBITDA APAT Adj. EPS (INR)

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E

Aarti Industries 41,863 43,560 48,285 9,773 8,297 10,092 5,361 3,835 4,800 30.8 22.0 27.5

Alkyl Amines 9,929 10,825 12,743 2,590 2,880 3,571 1,798 1,992 2,492 88.2 97.7 122.2

Balaji Amines 9,358 10,481 12,168 1,807 2,055 2,606 975 1,187 1,566 30.1 36.6 48.3

Galaxy Surfactants 25,964 27,424 34,094 3,689 3,921 4,752 2,244 2,231 2,815 65.0 62.9 79.4

INR mn

Company

Revenue EBITDA APAT Adj. EPS (INR)

FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY18 FY19 FY20

Bodal Chemicals 11,422 14,235 13,748 1,944 2,361 1,377 1,226 1,432 877 10.0 11.7 7.2

Meghmani Organics 18,033 20,880 21,912 4,312 5,445 4,341 1,713 2,513 2,401 6.7 9.9 9.4

Sharda Cropchem 17,066 19,976 20,030 3,454 3,266 2,970 1,908 1,763 1,647 21.1 19.5 18.3

Valuation Summary

Company

MCap

(INR

bn)

CMP

(INR) RECO

TP

(INR)

Adj. EPS (INR/sh) P/E (x) ROE (%)

FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E

Aarti

Industries 175.29 1,006 BUY 1,320 30.8 22.0 27.5 32.7 45.7 36.5 19.1 12.2 13.5

Alkyl Amines 64.40 3,155 BUY 4,010 88.2 97.7 122.2 35.8 32.3 25.8 47.8 31.9 30.2

Balaji Amines 26.28 811 BUY 980 30.1 36.6 48.3 27.0 22.1 16.8 14.6 15.1 16.7

Galaxy

Surfactants 64.55 1,821 BUY 2,070 65.0 62.9 79.4 28.0 28.9 22.9 23.1 19.7 21.9

Navin

Fluorine

International

99.67 2,020 ADD 2,210 77.9 40.3 59.9 25.9 50.2 33.7 31.0 13.4 17.7

SRF 234.88 4,086 BUY 5,120 174.2 103.4 126.6 23.5 39.5 32.3 22.1 11.4 12.6

Vinati

Organics 131.05 1,275 SELL 890 32.5 28.9 32.1 39.3 44.2 39.7 28.6 22.0 21.7

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HSIE Chemical Conference

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

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