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2020 Airline Economics Growth Frontiers
Dublin
Steven F. Udvar-HázyExecutive Chairman
January 20, 2020
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Forward Looking StatementsStatements in this presentation that are not historical facts are hereby identified as “forward-looking statements,” including any statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, predictions, forecasts,
objectives, assumptions or future events or performance. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as “anticipate,” “believes,” “can,” “could,” “may,”“predicts,” “potential,” “should,” “will,” “estimate,” “plans,” “projects,” “continuing,” “ongoing,” “expects,” “intends” and similar words or phrases. Accordingly, these statements are only predictions and involveestimates, known and unknown risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in them. We wish to caution you that our actual results could differmaterially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including, but not limited to, the following:
• our inability to obtain additional financing on favorable terms, if required, to complete the acquisition of sufficient aircraft as currently contemplated or to fund the operations and growth ofour business;
• our inability to obtain refinancing prior to the time our debt matures;
• our inability to make acquisitions of, or lease, aircraft on favorable terms;
• our inability to sell aircraft on favorable terms or to predict the timing of such sales;
• impaired financial condition and liquidity of our lessees;
• changes in overall demand for commercial aircraft leasing and aircraft management services;
• deterioration of economic conditions in the commercial aviation industry generally;
• potential natural disasters and terrorist attacks and the amount of our insurance coverage, if any, relating thereto;
• increased maintenance, operating or other expenses or changes in the timing thereof;
• changes in the regulatory environment, including tariffs and other restrictions on trade;
• our inability to effectively oversee our managed fleet; and
• the failure of any manufacturer to meet its contractual aircraft delivery obligations to us, including or as a result of technical or other difficulties with aircraft before or after delivery, resultingin our inability to deliver the aircraft to our lessees.
We also refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), specifically the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the yearended December 31, 2018 and the Company’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2019, June 30, 2019 and September 30, 2019, which contain and identify important factorsthat could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from expectations and any subsequent documents the Company files with the SEC. All forward-looking statementsare necessarily only estimates of future results, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations, and, therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on suchstatements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstancesafter the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. If any such risks or uncertainties develop, our business, results of operation and financial condition could beadversely affected.
The Company has an effective registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC. Before you invest in any offering of the Company’s securities, you should read the prospectus in thatregistration statement and other documents the Company has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Company and any such offering. You may obtain copies of the Company’s most recentAnnual Report on Form 10-K and the other documents it files with the SEC for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Company will arrange to send such information if yourequest it by contacting Air Lease Corporation, General Counsel and Secretary, 2000 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1000N, Los Angeles, California 90067, (310) 553-0555.
The Company routinely posts information that may be important to investors in the “Investors” section of the Company’s website at www.airleasecorp.com. Investors and potential investors areencouraged to consult the Company’s website regularly for important information about the Company. The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, the Company’s website is notincorporated by reference into, and is not a part of, this presentation.
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A look at the current aviation landscape
• Passenger traffic growing faster than GDP
• Ancillary revenues• High load factors
• Production challenges• Oversold backlogs• New engine reliability issues• 737 crisis
• Stronger balance sheets• Reduced financial leverage• Focus on asset quality &
management
• Global economic expansion• Middle class growth• Lower fares / cost of travel• Change in spending habits
Airlines OEMs
Aircraft lessors
PAX
4
A new year, a new decade: key topics for 2020
2020
Passenger Traffic Growth Aircraft
Supply/ Demand
Airline Financial
Health
Geopolitical Events
Capital Availability
Environmental Sustainability
Source: Airline net profits per IATA Fuel Fact Sheet December 2019. Passenger traffic and load factors per IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet December 2019 for years 2014-2020F, IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet June 2019 for year 2013 and IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry - Industry Forecast December 2017 for years 2010-2012.
5
Airline industry trends expected to remain healthy in 2020
Airl
ine
Net
Pro
fits
($bn
)S
ched
uled
Pas
seng
ers
(Billi
ons)
Pas
seng
er lo
ad fa
ctor
ach
ieve
d
Airlines continue to generate net profits
Load factors remain strongPassenger traffic is growing
$17
$8 $9 $11$14
$36 $34$38
$27 $26$29
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F
78.7%
78.5%
79.4%79.8%
80.0%
80.5%
80.4% 81.5%
81.9%
82.4%
82.0%
75%
77%
79%
81%
83%
85%
2.7 2.93.0
3.13.3
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.44.5
4.7 BN
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
An estimated 75% increase in scheduled
passengers over 10 years
Major shift in airline landscape
Air travel is the world’s most utilized form of mass transportation
6
2018*Change
Since 2011
Global Population1 7.6 Billion +8.4%
Global Rail Traffic in Passenger Kilometers2 3.9 Trillion +17.5%
Global Air Traffic in Revenue Passenger Kilometers3
8.2 Trillion +67.9%
Marine Transportation4
Transatlantic ocean liners as the predominant mode of crossing the Atlantic was curtailed by rise in air
travel in the mid 20th century
* Shows total as of 2018, or most recent available. Please see footnotes below for further detail.(1) World population in 2018 per the World Bank as of 7/25/19; (2) Rail Passenger Kilometers in 2017 per International Union of Railways; (3) Air Travel RPKs in 2018 per ICAO as of 12/31/18. (4) Per Encyclopedia Britannica as of July 2019
Traffic stimulated by LCCs through the emergence of new routes
Source of route maps: peach, IndiGo(1) IATA Economic Performance of the Airline Industry as of December 12, 2019
7
The number of unique city pairs will exceed 23,000 in 2020, more than double the connectivity by air 20 years ago1
Below are examples of route maps of select LCC/ULCCs in Asia - many of the routes offered did not exist years ago
Growth of the low cost airline segment
8
81%
13%
73%
21%
63%
32%
2010 2020 2030?
Over the past decade, LCC/ULCCs grew from 13% of the global commercial airline fleet to over 20% across 130+ low cost airlines
If this growth trend continues, by 2030 LCC/ULCCs could operate more than 30% of the world’s passenger aircraft
Source: Cirium fleets analyzer as of January 2020. Includes in-service commercial passenger aircraft.
Mainline/Regional Low cost Other
Global passenger fleet by airline type
9
More than 3,400 jets will reach 20 years of age between 2020-2025 and will need to be replaced by new aircraft
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
20+years
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total
Airbus Boeing
Boeing/Airbus passenger jets >20 years old
2,409
5,837
Source: Cirium fleets analyzer as of December 10, 2019. Includes Airbus & Boeing passenger aircraft in-service.
687626
464483
530638
Variants
A320
737-800
A319
737-700
A330/A340 777-200767-300
757-200
A321
Other
Production backlogs are oversold
10Source: Airbus Commercial Aircraft Orders, Deliveries, Operators – Worldwide. Summary to December 31, 2019. Boeing Commercial Aircraft website as of January 14, 2020. Comac website as of January 14, 2020.
6,026
4,398
579 520 495 331815?
A320/321 737 A350 787 A220 A330 C919
# o
f ai
rcra
ft in
bac
klo
g 7,482 aircraft backlog
5,406 aircraft backlog
4.8%3.4%
3.2%3.2%
3.1%
2.6%
2.5%
2.3%2.2%2.1%
2.1%1.9%
1.8%1.8%
1.6%
625
450
415
413
400
337
324
298
284
275
269
249
241
237
209
IndiGo
AirAsia
Lion Air
Air Lease Corporation
Avolon
GECAS
VietJet Air
SMBC Aviation Capital
United Airlines
AerCap
Wizz Air
Southwest Airlines
Delta Air Lines
flydubai
American Airlines
11
OEM backlogs are diversified
AirlineLessor
62%Other
Customers
Highly diversified order books: ~13,000 aircraft
Across 200+ customers with an average order of 55 aircraft
Source: Air Lease per Activity Report released on 1/14/20. Avolon per company website as of 1/15/20. AerCap per company 6-k filed November 8, 2019. SMBC Aviation per company website as of 1/15/20. All others per Cirium Fleets Analyzer as of 1/14/20. Includes all Boeing and Airbus commercial aircraft.
Top 15 Largest Airline & Lessor Order Books (Boeing & Airbus)
Aviation is a global industry - with tariffs and trade wars, no one wins!
Airbus
12Backlogs sourced from Cirium Fleets Analyzer October 2019. Note: Indigo Group order within Airbus Backlog separated by Airline region.
Boeing
Geographic Distribution of OEM Backlogs
Tariffs and trade wars create unnecessary noise within an industry that fundamentally needs both Boeing & Airbus aircraft worldwide for growth and
replacement
Asia Pacific27%
Europe17%
Latin America
6%
Middle East8%
Africa1%
North America
15%
Unidentified7%
Operating Lessor
20%
Asia Pacific21%
Europe12%
Latin America5%
Middle East11%Africa
1%
North America
14%
Unidentified15%
Operating Lessor
21%
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CO2 emissions from all transport1Global human-induced CO2 emissions1
Source: (1) Air Transport Group Facts and Figures as of December 11, 2019. (2) IATA based on IATA Economics Chart of the Week published November 16, 2018.
Aviation and environmental sustainabilityWhile continued progress is needed, the aviation industry has not appropriately underscored the advancements made over the last few decades:
• Today’s aircraft are >75% more fuel efficient per seat km vs. those from the 1960s1
• Air transport has seen 2.2% improvement on average in fuel efficiency each year since 1990 (3x that of cars and 9x that of heavy-duty trucks)2
~80% of aviation CO2 emissions are from flights >1,500km for which there is no practical alternative mode of transport1
Aviation 2%
Other CO2 Producers
98%
Aviation 12%
Other 14%Road
Transport 74%
Aviation industry will need to mitigate CO2 emissions at a time when demand for air travel is growing
14
Development of New, More
Efficient Aircraft
Operational Measures
(lighter seats, new materials)
Better Infrastructure (air traffic control
and airports)
Market-Based
Measure (measure/tracking
of emissions)
4 Pillars to Address Climate Change
Source: IATA. Carbon offsetting for international aviation, March 2019.
CORSIA aims to stabilize net CO2 emissions by 2020 and halve net aviation CO2 emissions in 2050 relative to 2005 levels
15
ALC order book aircraft are 15-30% more fuel efficient than the aircraft they will replace
A330-900NEOLaunch Customer
A320/321NEO/LR/XLRA321neoLR Launch CustomerA321XLR Launch Customer
A350-900/1000 A350-1000 Launch Customer
B787-9/10 787-10 Launch Customer
B737-8/9
A220-300A220-300 HGW Launch Customer
Source: Air Lease public filings and presentations as of December 31, 2019
Alliances are becoming transitory
16
Airline alliances are being challenged…
…by strategic partnerships / JVs which generate more value and
synergies
Commercial aviation in the next decade
17
• Further airline consolidation is evolving
• Emergence of new aircraft/engine technologies (electric?)
• Airlines are burdened by over-taxation and user fees
• Air traffic control systems in need of major upgrades
• Trade and regulatory barriers
• Vulnerability to cyber attacks and disruption
• Aviation and ground infrastructure not keeping up with passenger traffic growth
• Airport slot constraints driving single-aisle aircraft requirements to larger gauge
• Access to economical equity and debt capital
• Leasing represents nearly half of all new jet deliveries
Questions?