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AIRLINE ECONOMICS GROWTH FRONTIERS DUBLIN 2017
15th-18th January 2017 | Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin, Ireland
Schedule
Click the link under each talk or event to add it to your calendar.
SUNDAY 15th JANUARY 2017 12:00 until late
Engine Lease Finance welcome bar The Horseshoe Bar, Shelbourne Hotel from 12 noon Sponsored by:
7pm Reception Event
National Museum of Ireland – Archaeology iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook Sponsored by:
MONDAY 16th JANUARY 2017 08:00 Registration Open/Morning refreshments
08:25 Opening of conference - Chairman Opening Remarks
08:30 Macro-Economic & Political Dynamics The commercial aviation industry is affected and guided by macro-economic and political fluctuations but what factors have and will affect aviation in 2017? Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Flight Ascend Consultancy iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
09:10 Fuel Prices and the Environment for Fuel Hedging A big part of the reason why aviation is so susceptible to macro-economic and political fluctuation is the reliance and basic need for fuel. Following on from the opening presentation, this panel looks at the outlook for fuel prices and asks if hedging is a good idea right now. Paul Horsnell, Head of Commodities Research, Standard Chartered / Mike Corley, Mercatus Energy Advisors iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
09:45 Global Taxation Environment Outlook for Investors in Aircraft and Engines – Plotting a Course for Lessors Tom Woods, Partner & Head of Aviation Finance & Leasing – KPMG Anne Fitzgerald, Head of Tax, GECAS / Eithne Manning, Head of Tax, SMBC / Eveleen Drohan, Head of Tax, AWAS / Jan-Willem Dekkers, Head of Tax, Aercap (waiting clearance) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
10:25 Morning Break Sponsored by:
10:40 Keynote Address
Gerry Laderman, SVP Finance, Procurement & Treasurer, United Airlines Inc.
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
11:20 Cape Town Convention – Update on Global Ratification, Implication and Compliance Moderator: Jeffrey Wool, Secretary General, Aviation Working Group (AWG) Panel: Claude Brandes, Vice President of Customer Finance, Airbus / Daniel C. da Silva, Vice President, Strategic Regulatory Policy, Boeing Capital Corporation iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
12:00 Lessor Panel Question Time format – delegates will submit questions to the panel in advance Moderator: Duncan Batchelor, Partner, Norton Rose Fulbright Panel: Steven Townend, BOC Aviation David Power, CEO, Orix Aviation Ruth Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, Goshawk Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman, Air Lease Corporation Olaf Sachau, CEO, Intrepid Aviation Joe Ye Tian, Managing Director, Head of Aviation, Ping An Leasing iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
13:00 Lunch Sponsored by:
14:00 Supported Finance Panel
When the global economy weakens few areas of finance have been as important as
the ECAs. Will 2017 be another year of essential ECA assistance? It remains an
essential fall-back option for some operators.
Moderator: Daniel C Da Silva, Vice President, Strategic Regulatory Policy, Boeing
Capital Corporation
Panel: Nigel Taylor, SVP Customer Project & Structured Finance, Airbus / Marcio Nobre
Migon, Head of Department, Aircraft Financing – Export Credit Division, Banco
Naciaonal de Desenvolvimento-Economico se Social (BNDES) / Robert Roy, Vice
President – Transport, Export-Import Bank of the United States / Gordon Welsh, UK
Export Finance / Eric Agote, Head of Unit – Airbus Unconditional Guarantee, Bpifrance
Assurance Export / Viren Joshi, CFA, Global Accounts Director - Transportation Group,
Export Development Canada / Suresh Hegde, Head of Solutions & Structuring, NN
Investment Partners / Thomas Kolberg, Aircraft-Head of Department, Euler Hermes
Aktiengesellschaft Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
14:55 Keynote Address Aengus Kelly, CEO & Executive Director, AerCap Holdings iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
15:30 Airline CFO/Treasurer panel
Leading airline finance heads from across the globe take to the stage to give their
verdicts on the past 12 months and the outlook for 2017, as well as setting out what
financing strategies they will be looking for to fund deliveries in the year ahead and
what is affecting their decision making process.
Moderator: Graham Tyler, Partner, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP
Panel: Nirmal Govindadas, Senior Vice President – Corporate Treasury, Emirates
Airlines / Ted North, Managing Director, Corporate Finance, United Airlines / Tom
Weir, Vice President & Treasurer, American / Ricky Thirion, Group Treasurer, Etihad
Airways / Andy Nelson, Managing Director & Assistant Treasurer, Delta Air Lines, Inc. / Edward McGarvey, VP & Treasurer, Atlas Air Worldwide
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
16:25 Afternoon Break Sponsored by:
16:35 Lessor Financing & Rating Panel
Leading lessors are quizzed on their financing strategies and secured Vs unsecured capital markets and the effects that a rating can have. Moderator: Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Ratings Panel: Mark Wasden, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service / Mounir Kuzbari, Managing Director, Novus Aviation Capital / Betsy R Snyder, CFA, Director, Standard & Poor’s / Craig Fraser, Managing Director, Fitch Ratings / / Christian McCormick, Managing Director Finance, CALC / HUANG Zheng, Head of Aviation, Ping An Leasing iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
17:15 Engine Investment Moderator: Jon Sharp, CEO & President, Engine Lease Finance Panel: Mr. Ichiro Tatara, Managing Director & CEO, Sumisho Aero Engine Lease / Bobby Janagan, General Manager, Rolls-Royce & Partners Finance Limited / Giles Thomas, Managing Director, Charlotte Parker / Dan Coulcher, SVP & Chief Commercial Officer, Willis Lease Finance Corporation / Bob James, CEO, AerFin / Martin Friis-Petersen, Managing Director, MTU Maintenance Lease Services B.V. iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
18:15 End of day one – chairman’s closing remarks
17:45 Pre-Awards Cocktail reception in the Horseshoe Bar: iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
Sponsored by:
18:00 Pre-Awards drinks at the Engine Lease Finance Bar – Open Networking to all
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
Sponsored by:
19:00 Aviation 100 European & Global Leaders Awards
The RDS, Ballsbridge, Dublin
Coaches leave from outside the Shelbourne Hotel from 18:30 through to 19:00 with a
fleet making several trips for all.
Then return coach trips to the Shelbourne from the RDS start from 22:00 through to
23:00
Hosted by:
Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman, Lease Corporation International iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
Sponsored by:
After award drinks until (very) late:
ELFC Bar, Shelbourne Hotel, Ground floor by conference hall entrance
Sponsored by:
Airline Treasury & Risk Management Forum
16 January 2017 1st floor, Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin – Adams room (upstairs from ELFC bar area)
9:45 Optimal hedging strategies for Fuel and FX – A Tale of Correlations (Alankar Karol - Visual Risk) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
10:30 Morning Break 10:45 Aviation Carbon Markets (Louis Redshaw – Redshaw Advisors) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
11:30 Hedge Accounting & Financial Reporting Requirements (Niall Naughton - KPMG) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 12:15 Crude Oil & Jet Fuel – Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts (Alan Gelder – Wood Mackenzie) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Airline CFO & Treasurer Discussion Panel iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 14:45 Airline Fuel Hedging in 2017 & Beyond (Mike Corley - Mercatus Energy Advisors) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 15:30 Airline Fuel Hedging – How it Works in Practice (Morten Elgkjaer – Global Risk Management) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 16:15 Jet Fuel Spot Markets & Price Reporting (Andrew Bonnington - Platts) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
TUESDAY 17th JANUARY 2017 08:00 Registration Open/Morning Refreshments
08:45 Opening of conference day 2 - Chairman Opening Remarks Will McCallum, Managing Director, Aviation Finance, Standard Chartered Bank
08:50 The Financial Health of Airlines and the Outlook for 2017 A senior figure looks at major players in the airline market and assesses their financial strength going forward. Helane Becker, Cowen Securities iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
09:35 Keynote Address David Siegel, CEO, AWAS iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
10:10 Lessor Panel Question Time format – Delegates will submit questions for the panel in advance. Moderator: Mark Streeter, Managing Director, JP Morgan Mamoun Kuzbari, Managing Director, Novus Aviation John L. Plueger, Chief Executive Officer & President, Air Lease Corporation Fred Browne, CEO, AERGO CAPITAL LIMITED Stephane Daillencourt, CEO, Asia Aviation Capital C. Jeffrey Knittel, President, Transportation Finance, CIT Mark Lapidus, CEO, Amedeo iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
11:00 Morning Break Sponsored by:
11:15 Banking Panel
Valuation, M&A trends vs. EETCS and ABS
Moderator: Jose Abramovici, Global Head of Asset Finance Group, Credit Agricole Corporate Investment Bank
Panel: Joerg Schirrmacher, Head of Transportation Finance, Helaba Landesbank Hessen-
Thüringen / Thomas Hollahan, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation, Global
Banking, Citi Group / Greg Lee, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs / Richard Moody, Asset
Finance & Leasing, Deutsche Bank / Masao Masuda, Director, Global Aviation Team,
Development Bank of Japan / Michel Dembinski, Head of Aviation, The Bank of Tokyo-
Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. / Laurent Floquet, Global Head Aviation Finance, Societe Generale
Corporate & Investment Banking
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
12:05 Capital Markets Outlook Moderator: Patrick M. Käufer, Managing Director Capital Markets and Treasury Solutions, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Panel: Thomas Bliemel, Managing Director & Head of Structured Transportation Finance, Citi / Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Head of Aviation Credit Research, JP Morgan / Ted North, Managing Director, Corporate Finance, United Airlines / Leo J. Burrell, Managing Director Securitization, Credit Agricole Securities (USA) / Tom Smith, Managing Director, Credit Suisse / Betsy R Snyder, CFA, Director, Standard & Poor’s / Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
13:00 Lunch Sponsored by:
14:00 ABS Panel
Moderator: Tony Nocera, Managing Director, ABS Commercial - KROLL BOND RATING Panel: Matt Little, Castlelake / Bill Hoffman or Javier Meireles, Apollo Aviation Group /
Greg Leveto, Head of Transportation, Infrastructure & Energy Americas, Deutsche Bank /
Jing Xie, CFA, Director – Structured Credit Ratings, S&P Global Ratings / Kate Scanlin,
Analytical Manager & Senior Director of non-traditional ABS, S&P Global Ratings / Bradley
E Smith, Kahala Capital / John Bella, Managing Director, Fitch Ratings / Eric Shea, MUFG
Securities / Tracy Rice, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s / Serge Gabovich, Executive
Director, Structured Credit Group Mizuho Securities USA
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
14:45 Keynote slot: Howard Millar, COO, Stellwagen Capital iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
15:20 CFO/Treasurer panel – Low Cost Leading ULCC and LCC airline finance heads from across the globe take to the stage to give their verdicts on the past 12 months and their outlook for 2017. They will also set out their financing strategies to fund deliveries in the year ahead and what is affecting their decision making process. Moderator: Helane Becker, Managing Director, Cowen Panel: Ted Christie, Spirit Airlines / Jude Bricker, SVP, Planning, Allegiant Airlines / Chris Monroe, VP Treasurer, Southwest Airlines / Riyaz Peermohamed, Chief
Financial Officer, IndiGo / Neil Sorahan, CFO, Ryanair / John Rodgerson, CFO, Azul / Satyendra Pandey, Head of Strategy & Planning, GoAir iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
16:05 Break Sponsored by:
16:15 Investing in mid to late life Aircraft & Engines
Moderator: Robert Korn, CEO, Apollo Aviation Group Panel: Stephen Hannahs, CEO, Wings Capital Partners / David Ellis, SVP, GA Telesis /
Evan Carruthers, Managing Partner & Portfolio Manager, Castlelake / Bradley Smith, Kahala Capital iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
16:55 TRANSACTION ANALYSIS - LABRADOR: THE GROUNDBREAKING
MERGER OF US ABS AND KOREAN EQUITY MARKETS.
The Labrador ABS transaction that closed in December is groundbreaking in a
number of ways, from GECAS’ s re-entry to the ABS market to the purchase of E-
Certificates by Korean investors. The Panel will discuss various aspects of the
deal, including various challenges in expanding the Korean equity market to
embrace the US ABS structure and purchase of E-Certificates.
Moderator: Geoffrey Kass, Vedder Price
Panel: Vinodh Srinivasan, Managing Director & Co-Head Structured Credit Group, Mizuho
Securities USA / Greg Conlon, Senior Vice President, GE Capital Aviation Services / Daeyeon
(Danny) Kang, Team Head, Real Asset Management Division / Infrastructure Investment
Team, Korea Investment Trust Management Co.,Ltd. / Jung-Wook Sim, General Manager,
Meritz Securities
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
17:35 Aircraft Valuations Panel & Remarketing Outlook Aircraft valuations – does the panel agree with one another on certain types? Banks, lessors and owners all have varying views on what their asset is worth – So how can/should the valuation firms react? As private investors move into aviation assets accurate valuations become more important than ever. And what of those new generation aircraft? Will they have an effect on prices in the coming years and what is the outlook? Are those price ranges being achieved in the market correct? Active remarketers tell us what they are seeing on the ground right now. Moderator: Steven Tingey CIO AVi8 Air Capital Panel: Andrew Kabala, Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency / Stuart J Rubin, Principal, ICF SH&E / David Tokoph, Vice President Valuations and Technical Analysis, Morten Beyer & Agnew / Les Weal, Oriel / George Dimitroff, Head of
Valuations, Flight Ascend Consultancy / Bryson Monteleone, ISTAT Certified Appraiser, Tailwind Capital LLC / Jonathan McDonald, IBA iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
18:25 Chairman’s closing remarks Will McCallum, Executive Director – Aviation Finance, Standard Chartered
17:30 to 19:30
Connect Dublin drinks The Horseshoe Bar, Shelbourne Hotel main foyer kindly Sponsored by:
18:15 Until very late
Pre & Post Gala Dinner Drinks The Engine Lease Finance Bar
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
19:45 - doors open 19:45
The AirLink Charity Gala Dinner Shelbourne Hotel Ballroom iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook Supported and sponsored by:
WEDNESDAY 18th JANUARY 2017 08:00 Registration Open/Morning refreshments
09:00 Opening of conference - Chairman Opening Remarks
Martin Sutton, Executive Director, Aviation Finance – Standard Chartered
09:00 The Continued Evolution of Commercial Operating Leasing Using charts and analysis leveraging the industry leading Ascend databases, Rob
Morris covers the medium and long-term macro outlook (can leasing reach 50% of
the fleet?), discusses the evolving competitive dynamic, merits of certain asset types,
next generation aircraft vs current generation and more.
Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy, Flight Ascend Consultancy
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
09:45 Lessor Finance & Investment Panel
Bespoke financing and investment options for the seasoned aviation investor and
those new to aviation looking to get started. Also how can aviation companies better
assist institutional investors in clearing the long path for approval of aviation related
investments? Can certain packages and formats work far better for attracting
investment and does a good credit rating still matter above all else?
Moderator: Doulgas L. Brennan, Chief Executive Officer, Stellwagen Group Limited.
Panel: Philip A. Baggaley, CFA, Managing Director Corporate Ratings, Standard &
Poor’s Ratings Services / Jeff Straebler, Managing Director - Transportation,
Aerospace & Defense, Bonds & Corporate Finance Group, John Hancock Insurance
/ Greg Willis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Air Lease
Corporation iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
10:30 Morning Break Sponsored by:
10:45 Keynote: Aviation Finance Leasing & Investment in 2017
Abdol Moabery, Chief Executive Officer, GA Telesis, LLC iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
11:20 Airline rating & finance Panel
Moderated by: Betsy R Snyder, CFA, Director, Standard & Poor’s
Panel: Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating / Craig Fraser,
Managing Director, Fitch Ratings / Jonathan Root,, Senior Credit Officer, MOODY'S
INVESTOR SERVICE iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
11:55 Keynote: Wizz Air Group
Jozsef Varadi, Chief Executive Officer, Wizz Air Group
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
12:20 Equity and investment panel Private equity investment in aircraft and engines: Examining issuer and investor
expectations and structures with all new information for 2017.
Moderated by: Michael Mulitz, Senior Counsel, Co-Head of Aviation Finance & Leasing, Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer
Panel: Daniel Hartnett, Partner, Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP / Willys
Schneider, Senior Counsel, Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP / David Andrews,
Managing Partner, Hudson Structured Capital Management / Bob Peart, Portfolio Manager, Magnetar Capital LLC
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
13:00 Lunch Sponsored by:
14:05 Helicopter investment, finance & leasing
Moderator: Tony Nocera, Managing Director, ABS Commercial - KROLL BOND
RATING
Panel: Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman, Lease Corporation International /
Clark McGinn, Waypoint Leasing / Francois Gautier, Chief Executive Officer,
AVINCO / Neil Calvert, CEO of Amur HFS / Mark Kelly, Managing Director, Lobo
Leasing Limited
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
14:50 Sidecar and Joint Venture vehicles attached to leasing companies
Moderated by: Declan Keane, DD Advisory, KPMG
Panel: Ryan McKenna, Vice President, Air Lease Corporation / John Feren, EVP Global Strategy, Aviation Capital Group / Paul Sheridan, Acting MD, SVP, Risk & Capital Markets, Accipiter / Tokyo Century Leasing name TBC /
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
15:40 KEYNOTE – Industry Introduction to AVi8 Air Capital by: Ray Sisson, Co-Founder and Executive Chairman, AVi8 Air Capital
Ed Wegel, Co-Founder and CEO, AVi8 Air Capital
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
16:15 Afternoon Break Sponsored by:
16:30 THE BIG DEBATE – AIRCRAFT VALUATIONS AND REMARKTING /
INVESTING IN AIRCRAFT AND THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM
Asset managers have come of age, able to offer tailored products to meet investor
needs no matter the age and type of aircraft, here some of the world’s leading players
look at how they see the current market and what potential investors and current
aircraft owners should be looking for in 2017 and indeed, what they can offer to the
same in the here and now.
Moderator: Gary Fitzgerald, Managing Director, Stratos
Panel: Phil Seymour, IBA / Martin Bouzaima, CEO, FPG Amentum / James Meyler,
Chief Commercial Officer, Orix Aviation, Andy Mansell, EVP & Head of Global
Marketing and Trading, Aviation Capital Group / Yuji Ikehama, Head of Airline
Marketing, Americas & Pacific, Century Tokyo Leasing / Peter Huijbers, Managing
Director, PH Aviation Asia Ltd / Bill Cumberlidge, Chairman and Chief Commercial Officer,
GC Aviation Partners Limited (GCAP) / Marc Bourgade, CEO, AFC / Karl Brunjes, Managing
Director, RPK Capital
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
17:45 End of conference – chairman’s closing remarks and acknowledgements Martin Sutton, Executive Director, Aviation Finance – Standard Chartered
18:00
Until
very
late
Drinks at the Engine Lease Finance Bar – Open Networking to all iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
Sponsored by:
2nd Annual Airline Economics Aviation Finance &
leasing School – Dublin
Adams room, 1st floor, Shelbourne Hotel, St Stephen’s Green, Dublin
Sponsored by:
Chairman: Gareth Bryan
09:00 – 09:40 – Macro economics outlook and the outlook for the aviation sector
Stuart Hatcher, CIO, IBA iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
09:40 – 10:20 – Implications on the finance and leasing sector of new taxation regulations coming
into force - Gareth Bryan, KPMG iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
10:20 – 11:00 - Factors influencing operating lease economics
TBC, SVP Commercial, Asia Pacific, CDB Aviation Lease Finance
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
11:00 – 11:15 – BREAK
11:15 – 12:05 - Risk Management for Operating Lessors
Tim Bacchus, Senior Risk Director, CDB Aviation Lease Finance
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
12:05 -13:00 – The next generation of lease accounting Niall Naughton, Partner, KPMG iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
13:00 – 14:00 - LUNCH
Chairman: Niall Naughton
14:00 – 14:40 - ABS Maintenance Forecasting and Stress Testing
David Tokoph, MBA iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
14:40 – 15:20 - The Lease’s Technical impacts on the financial and economics of Lease Agreements
Ran Ackerman, V.P Marketing & Sales, Head of Asia and EMEA MK Aviation, S.A. iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
15:20 – 15:35 – BREAK
15:35 – 16:15 – Redelivery Management and Technical Aspects of Leases Oisin Murray, Head of Technical & Asset Management, CDB Aviation Lease Finance
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
16:15 – 16:50 Engine Event Management
Workscope approval, Table top inspection of hardware, Approval of replacement
parts, Invoice review, MR Reconciliation.
Willie Reilly, Engine Services Department, Santos Dumont.
16:50 – 17:30 - Chapter 11 for non-US Operators
Jasmine Ball, Partner, Debevoise & Plimpton and Geoffrey Burgess, Partner,
Debevoise & Plimpton
iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook
17:30 – CLOSING REMARKS