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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
2
MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
1/ VEGOILS – SOUTH AMERICA
Edible Update – volume fixed since our last report: 506.120mt / YTD 1.132.820 mt
A healthy number of fixtures have been reported in the vegoil freight market ex Argentina and Brazil in the
past weeks. A touch more than half a million metric tonnes of cargo has been fixed, mainly for loading in
February.
The freights that have been reported are still showing some strength. Fixtures to all destinations have been
concluded at 1 to 2 USD PMT above levels we have seen a month ago.
EDIBLE OIL/SME FREIGHT ESTIMATES - WEEK 06 2018 THIS WEEK CHANGE TREND
ARGENTINA/WEST MED 18/20000T 1/1 $45/47 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA/WEST MED 25/30000T 1/1 $30/33 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA/EAST MED 18/20000T 1/1 $46/49 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA/EAST MED 25/30000T 1/1 $31/34 +$1 →↗
ARG/NWEUROPE 18/20000T 1/1 - NON FOSFA $46/48 +$1 →↗
ARG/NWEUROPE 25/30000T 1/1 - NON FOSFA $32/33 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA/CARIBS 18/20000T 1/1 $42/45 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA/USG 30/320000T 1/1 $31/33 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA/INDIA 30/32000T 1/2 $39/41 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA BRASIL/INDIA 40/42000T 2/2 $36/39 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA / IRAN 30/32000T 1/1 $47/49 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA BRASIL/FAR EAST - 40/42000T 2/2 $44/45 +$1 →↗
ARGENTINA BRASIL/CHINA - 40/42000T 2/2 - CIQ $47/49 +$1 →↗
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
MONTHLY EXPORT VOLUMES SOUTH AMERICA
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 5yr Ø
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
The share of SME in these fixtures has dropped quite substantially compared to previous months. We must
conclude that an increase in Argentina’s export tax on SME in combination with some maintenance at SME
producers’ factories has a big impact. Market participants don’t expect the SME volumes to rebound to levels
we have witnessed the past months even when the plants come back online. The vegetable oil cargoes that
have been fixed are mainly heading to the Indian subcontinent and the balance to either the Mediterranean
or other South American countries.
Please note below Owners totals in metric tonnes ex South-America in 2017.
ARG SBO; 553850
ARG SFO; 46350
ARG SME; 270000
BRA SBO; 187620
PGY SBO; 45000
BOL SBO; 77000OTHER; 26500
ARG/BRAZ EXPORTS PER PRODUCT
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
For February loading the short list of available tonnage was one of the variables causing firmness in freights.
The western CPP markets have in general been healthy, causing owners to prefer keeping their vessels in the
Atlantic basin. But although the CPP is not showing signs of weakening at the time of writing this report, the
outlook for the second and third quarter is that rates will come down from their present levels. If we combine
this knowledge with the historically higher CPP imports into Argentina in their winter season it does not bode
well for freights with vegoils from Argentina and Brazil. But giving an exact prediction on freights can be quite
a challenge. The recent volatility in the equity markets show us that even most traders and analysts in the
City and on Wall Street can be caught off guard.
REPORTED FIXTURES
VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT FEB FREIGHT
TIGER HARMONY 18.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR WC INDIA 1H MID $40S 1/1
MTM MUMBAI 33.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR EC INDIA/BDESH 1/10 MID/HI $30S 1/2
NORD OCEAN 12.000 VEGOILS ITACOATIARA ALGERIA 1H LOW $50S
TORM MARY 30.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR MED ELY T/C ARD $11K PD
STENAWECO ENERGY 32.500 VEGOILS ARGY UPR WC INDIA 14/24 MID/HI $30S 1/2
SW ANDREA CORRADO 43.000 VEGOILS ARGY/BRZL WC INDIA BEG MID $30S 2/2
CELCIUS MANILA 18.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR PTO CABELLO MID HI $30S
ATHLOS 32.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR INDIA END T/C ARD $12K PD
KRONBORG 34.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR INDIA END $40 1/2
GREEN HELLAS 30.000 BIODIESEL ARGY UPR ROTTERDAM MID INHOUSE
PORT SAID 30.000 VEGOILS ARGY UPR MED MID LOW $30S
CHAMPION EBONY 37.000 VEGOILS BRAZIL INDIA MID MID/HI $30S 1/2
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
2/ VEGOILS – BLACK SEA
There is no alarm yet for heavy ice in the Black Sea region, it has been a mild winter so far. There is still a
slight chance of an ice-campaign in Nikolayev and Dneprobugskiy this year, however no ice-campaigns have
been announced and temperatures are above average. The winter did not have an effect on the freight rates
so far this year, the X-Med CPP market/s are moving sideways. Last couple of vegoil fixtures are in line with
last done’s and no signs for improvement, charterers are still in the driving seat at the time of writing.
In our last report we
wrote that the sunoil
exports exceeded
expectations but we
forgot to mention that
this was applicable for
the exports from
Russia, where we have
seen an increase
compared to the
previous years (see
graphic).
The exports ex Ukraine are smaller compared to the previous year, but in February we see an increased
volume again compared to last year.
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
sept oct nov dec jan feb march april may june july aug
MONTHLY VOLUME EX UKREINE PER SEASON
season 2014-2015 season 2015-2016 season 2016-2017 season 2017-2018
1.292.436
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEARLY VOLUME OF SUNOIL EX RUSSIA
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
India’s vegetable oil imports could edge up 1.2 percent to 15.6 million tonnes in 2017/2018 on higher
overseas palm oil imports. The countries overseas purchases of soyabeanoil are estimated 3.37 million
tonnes in the current marketing year that started on October 1, slightly lower than 3.47 million tonnes a year
ago. India’s sunflowerseedoil imports are likely to nudge up to 2.2 million tonnes from 2.14 million tonnes a
year ago.
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
VOLUME BY DESTINATION EX UKRAINE JAN/FEB 2018
January February
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
VOLUME BY DESTINATON EX RUSSIA JAN/FEB 2018
January February
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
3/ PALMOIL – ASIA
With Chinese New Year coming up the market is showing a slight increase of fixtures on both long-haul and
short haul palm routes. February is almost completely booked with a few charterers now looking to fix
forward to even 2nd half march dates prior to the holiday.
REPORTED T/C FIXTURES
VESSEL SIZE DELIVERY RE-DELIVERY JAN T/C RATE
STI JARDINS 49.000 S. KOREA MED-CONT-USA 25-30 16,500 PD
VESSEL SIZE DELIVERY RE-DELIVERY FEB T/C RATE
SILVER MUNA 49.000 SINGAPORE ROTTERDAM 1-5 16,000 PD
TORM FREYA 45.000 BINTULU FUJAIRAH 15-25 14,000 PD
NAVIG8 TOURMALINE (FAILED) 49.000 KWINANA MED-CONT-USA 10-15 15,750 PD
NAVIG8 TOURMALINE (FAILED) 49.000 KWINANA MED-CONT-USA 7-9 15,250 PD
AMI 39.000 L. DATU EAF - FUJAIRAH 10-20 13,750 PD
NAVIG8 TOPAZ 49.000 KAKINADA MED-CONT-USA 15-25 15,900 PD
PACIFIC DEBBIE 74,000 (LR1) SINGAPORE MED-BSEA 1-10 RNR
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
16.000
17.000
18.000
19.000ROTTERDAM TCT (DELIVERY STRAITS)
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
Rates wise on CPP in the far east and Singapore have stayed flat mirroring the palms although there has been
a noticeable dip in parcel rates due to tonnage availability.
VOYAGE FIXTURES - LONG HAUL
VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT JAN FREIGHT
STENABULK TBN 2.500 UCO PASIR GUDANG ROTTERDAM 20-30 73 1/1
VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT FEB FREIGHT
WISBY ATLANTIC 30.000 POP LUBUK GAUNG SPAIN + RDAM 1-10 55 1/3
SC VIRGO 10.000 OLEO BELAWAN + DUMAI BAR + RDAM 1-10 MID 60'S 2/2
SC VIRGO 7.000 POP STRAITS ROTTERDAM 1-5 70 2/2
MTM ANTWERP 18.000 POP STRAITS-EMALAY USG GULF + ECI 1-10 85 2/3
EMMA VICTORY 42.000 POP TARJUN + TARAHAN ADRIATIC 15-20 42 2/3
SUSANNE VICTORY 31.000 POP STRAITS WAFR 1-10 HI 50'S 2/3
BUNGA ANGSANA 20.000 POP STRAITS SPAIN 1-10 52 1/2
TRF MONGSTAD 20.000 POP SCHINA ARA MID 58 2/1
SILVER MUNA 7.000 BASEOIL MELAKA ANTWERP 1-7 66 1/1
A. CHEYENNE 25.000 POP STRAITS EMED + CMED 10-20 64 2/3
GREENWICH PARK 18.500 POP GRESIK + STRAITS MED/CONT 10-15 70 2/2
STENA IMPERO 10-14,000 POP EMAL + P. GUDANG ROTTERDAM 10-25 LOW 50'S 2/1
STENA IMPERO 1.400 PKFAD EMAL ROTTERDAM 10-25 MID 90'S 2/1
STENAWECO TBN 6.500 POP LUBUK GAUNG ROTTERDAM 15-20 M/H 50'S 1/1
MAERSK BRISTOL 27.000 POP BELAWAN TAMAN 5-10 44 1/1
ORINOCO STAR 35.000 POP L. DATU + STRAITS EMED + WMED 15-20 49 3/4
JOHNNY TRADER 42.000 POP PHIL + EMASIA MED + RDAM 1-7 48 3/2
STENA IMPERO 4.000 POP BINTULU ROTTERDAM 15-25 L/M 50S 1/1
MAERSK AEGEAN 34.000 POP STRAITS MED-CONT 23-28 RNR
TAPATIO 3.000 POP LUBUK GAUNG PATRAS 15-25 69 1/1
Owners in general are hoping that the CPP market in the AG continues its upward push with some higher
numbers already fixed and on subs. This could suck tonnage away from Singapore and see freight rates rise
on both palms, chems and cpp markets in the coming weeks.
Bunkers almost hit the USD 400 mark at the end of January in Singapore the highest since 2015, however it
has cooled marginally since then which may come as a relief to some owners as there had been a steady
upward trend since December which saw margins dwindle.
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
VOYAGE FREIGHT ASSESSMENT
DISCHARGE AREA QUANTITY RANGE FREIGHT PMT TREND
M CHINA 10-15,000 30-33 ↘
EC INDIA 10-15,000 23-26 ↘
WC INDIA - PAKISTAN RGE 10-15,000 22-27 ↘
MIDDLE EAST 10-15,000 30-33 ↘
ROTTERDAM 15-25,000 50-55 ↘
ROTTERDAM 2/1 40-42,000 43-46 ↘
WMED (IMO3) 2/2 40-42,000 42-45 ↘
WEST MED (IMO2) 2/2 18-20,000 65-70 →
EAST MED - BLACK SEA 12-18,000 56-59 →
BLACK SEA 25-35,000 44-45 →
USG - USAC (IMO3) 2/1 35-40,000 50-53 →
WEST AFRICA (IMO3) 2/2 15-20,000 59-65 →
BRAZIL (IMO3) 2/2 20-25,000 62-68 →
SINGAPORE BUNKERS
FUEL PRICE TREND
IFO 380 USD 392.50 →
TIME CHARTER MARKET (FOSFA EU1)
VESSEL PRICE (GROSS) PD DELIVERY REDELIVERY TREND
MR USD 15,000 - 16,000 LOADPORT MED/CONT/USG ↘
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
4/ UAN
There has definitely been more activity in the UAN market the last few weeks. We have seen shipments from
the Baltic and from the Blacksea being concluded into the USAC and the US Gulf for loading in February with
a few stems remaining uncovered for later in Feb and March loading. Also, the Baltic to UK Cont flow seem
to be getting out of their winter sleep now with some smaller lots being done. We also noted more activity
on the US export side with traders doing rate checks and asking indications for various stem sizes to a wide
variety of destinations (Brazil/Argentina, Australia, Ukraine). If all these freight checks will lead to actual
shipments remains to be seen. Actual shipments are most likely to be done if UAN pricing warrants them.
There is not much to say about the freight rates being fixed in UAN. They are all following the clean market
very closely. The only fixture worth mentioning in this respect is the Tiger Tenacity which will lift 23.000MT
from the Baltic to 3 ports Australia at a rate reported to be in the mid to upper $70s PMT basis 3 ports
discharge. The outlook for clean freights in the Western hemisphere is that they might soften a bit after Q1
so don’t expect any fireworks in the UAN freight markets either.
REPORTED FIXTURES
VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT JAN FREIGHT
TIGER TENACITY 23.000 UAN SILLAMAE AUSTRALIA END M/H $70S 1/3
STI ACTON 20.000 UAN KLAIPEDA ROUEN 31/2 HI $10S
VESSEL VOLUME GRADE LOADPORT DISPORT FEB FREIGHT
BAKHTIYAR VAHABZADE 5.100 UAN CONSTANTA KHERSON 7/9 ARD $120K L/S
LEONORA VICTORY 31.000 UAN HEROYA STOCKTON 1H COA
STENAWECO MARJORIE K 33.000 UAN NOVOROSSIYSK USAC 11/12 HI $20S
FMT URLA 13.000 UAN KLAIPEDA ROUEN 3/5 L/M $10S
POMER 45.000 UAN SILLAMAE USAC/USG MID LOW $20S
KASTAV 49.000 UAN SILLAMAE Corpus Christy END LOW $20S
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
BUNKERS IFO 380 ROTTERDAM IN USD PMT
2015 2016 2017 2018
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
5/ STORAGE “Twenty-Twenty” At last month’s European Oil Storage and Middle Distillates conference one of the main subjects was what will happen after 2020. The IMO sulphur cap is likely to have a huge impact on the configuration of storage tanks especially in the major(bunkering) hubs. Will High Sulphur Fuel Oil be replaced by a completely different product grade or do scrubbers have the future. Not many shipping companies implemented a scrubber so far and it looks like that Marine Gas Oil(MGO) and/or Low Sulphur Fuels are the products that most ships will use after 2020. In 2018 we don’t foresee an impact just yet but after that experts expect a “disruptive” market which will have an impact on the storage sector. Dirty and Clean Products Looking to the current storage situation a lot of Fuel oil storage tanks are not utilized and could be “switched” into other products. Not many terminals have made a decision to do so mainly due to the high cleaning costs. Same goes for Gasoil tanks, there is a lot of capacity available but little demand for storage due to the backwardated market structure. Some grades of biodiesel can be stored in these type of tanks which could be a solution to fill the empty tanks to make additional revenue. The demand for Gasoline tanks remains strong especially for smaller tank sizes(10-15.000M³). Storage rates for clean products are on the lower side of the “average” but show a slight raise in the beginning of 2018. Chemicals On the chemical side there is a shortage of tanks in the ARA and the tanks that are available don’t offer a lot of flexibility and options. Rates are stable and are no different than what we have seen in 2017. Vegoils The vegoil storage market is difficult. Tanks in ARA and even in the surrounding European countries are hard to find. We have received a number of requests for both spot and long term storage, but nowhere to accommodate the cargo on short notice. China Market Update In a bid to close the tax loophole of gasoline blending, Chinese tax authority started a pilot project in South China starting this year where issuing of VAT invoice for oil products has to go through a special designated platform. As such, traders who use mixed Aromatics to blend gasoline will no longer gain tax advantage as consumption tax will eventually be levied on the blended products. There was no consumption tax on mixed Aromatics in the past. People in the industry is saying that this will have noticeable impact on tank storage demand because a lot of terminals has as much as 30% of the capacity occupied by mixed Aromatics 2017. “Are you currently involved in tank storage related activities for which you don’t have the resources or enough time?” The RVB Tank Storage team could be of assistance with all sorts of storage related questions, whether it is brokering, review of pricing strategies, market analysis or even if you would like to outsource all your tank storage related activities.
For further information / requirements / quotes: [email protected] Tel: +31 (0) 1050 66020
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
6/ EVENTS RVB Shipbrokers
• Price Outlook Conference (POC) Kuala Lumpur, 06/08th of March 2018 Ruud Rijpstra & Victor van der Blom attending
• NOFOTA annual dinner in Rotterdam at “De Doelen”, 12 April 2018 RVB team attending
RVB Tankstorage
• IP Week London, 20-22 February 2018
• Base oils and lubricants Conference, 21-23 February 2018
• StocExpo Europe Rotterdam, 20-22 March 2018
• AFPM Petrochemicals San Antonio TX, 25-27 March 2018
7/ LOCAL NEWS Port Authority makes an extra 100 hectares available at Maasvlakte 2 for distribution companies Increasing demand for port-related logistics real estate has resulted in the Port of Rotterdam Authority classifying a further 100 hectares of land at Maasvlakte 2 as a distribution park. ‘Distripark Maasvlakte West’ is currently the only available ‘greenfield’ site for distribution in the Port of Rotterdam. “Distripark Maasvlakte West is now available for allocation,” stated Maarten de Wijs, Business Manager Distribution & Warehousing at the Port of Rotterdam Authority. “There is a lot of interest from the market. That’s because it’s a top location for both logistics service providers and shippers as well as real estate developers and investors.” The site has multimodal links by road, rail and water and is located just a stone’s throw from high-frequency deep-sea and short-sea connections. The new Distripark is also located conveniently for the A15, the Maasvlakte Plaza Truck parking area, the existing Maasvlakte distripark and the freight rail links between Maasvlakte and the European hinterland. Construction height and environmental contours The site is being allocated in plots of various sizes. Coupled with the fact that there are no construction height restrictions, this makes Maasvlakte West Distripark extremely suitable for the development of large-scale distribution. De Wijs particularly sees opportunities for the chemical industry, cold storage and the distribution of high-quality freight. “Over 45 chemical production companies and refineries are active in the immediate vicinity. Add the spacious environmental contours of the site to this and you can immediately see fantastic opportunities for the distribution of chemical products, including hazardous substances.”
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MARKET REPORT 2018 – WEEK 06 – EDITION #02
8/ Chartering Team
ROTTERDAM OFFICE
Roy Bekenes
+31 105066011
+31 641143399
Victor van der Blom
+31 105066005
+31 627002806
Patrick Hartman
+31 105066003
+31 651523803
Ruud Rijpstra
+31 105066002
+31 653927626
Joep van Huizen
+31 105066010
+31 613327880
SINGAPORE OFFICE
Sean Campbell
+65 6829 2148
+65 8121 2094
Harry Gabb
+65 6829 2147
+65 87888969
