TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR SERVICE CONTRACTING

Applicant Organizations

Joint application by international/national organizations or individuals in partnership with Jordan based research agency/organization.

Assignment Monitoring of UNICEF and UNHCR cash transfer programmes for Syrian refugee families in the host communities in Jordan.

Location Jordan

Duration 6-9 months

Reporting to UNICEF: Head of Social Inclusion and Policy, UNHCR: Senior Field Coordinator

Second Reporting to

UNICEF: Social Policy and Child Rights Monitoring Specialist, and NHCR: Assistant Field Officer

1. Context: With fifth year into Syria crises, Jordan hosting about 640,000 registered Syrian refugees, currently has the second-largest ratio of refugees to citizens of any country in the world and the fifth-largest refugee population in absolute terms. According to the UNHCR out of total 52% are children under 18 years of age.1 Among these, 50.7% are female, 49.3% are male, and 16.4% are children from 0-4 years, 21.8% are from 5 -11 years, and 13.5% are from 12-17 years. Initial results of the latest census completed by the Government of Jordan in December 2015 indicated that Syrians constituent 12.5% [1.265 million in total including non-refugees] of the total Jordanian population, adding significant pressure on the country. The majority (82 %) of refugees are living in non-camp settings (so-called, “host community/urban centres”), with higher concentration in northern and central Jordan (Amman, Irbid, Zarqa, and Mafraq Governorates). In absolute numbers, there are approximately 265,000 Syrian registered refugee children in host communities. The conflict in Syria putting a whole generation of children at risk. As the time lapses in the crises, humanitarian assistance decreased and became less predictable. By early 2015, several studies showed that levels of monetary welfare of Syrian households in host communities had reached critical levels. UNHCR reported that 86% of refugees in urban areas were living with less than 68 JD/month2 per capita (UNHCR, 2015b), while CARE found that 85% of families had insufficient income to meet their basic needs (CARE, 2015). This outlook changed from bad to worse in the second half of 2015. Monetary welfare of refugee household rapidly worsened as participation in labour markets decreased. UNICEF study showed that a large increase in the number of households reporting that no family members are able to make any monetary contribution to the family, rising from just 8% in June to an astonishing 62% in November 2015. This outlook changed from bad to worse in the second half of 2015. Monetary welfare of refugee household rapidly worsened as participation in labour markets decreased.

1 UNHCR, Registered Syrians in Jordan, December 2015.2 To define income poverty, Jordan adopted a system featuring a poverty line standing at 68 JD/month per capita. While the Jordanian national standard provides a useful point of comparison to estimate income poverty, this threshold does not seem applicable to Syrian refugees, since the latter have often limited access to labour income, basic services and national social protection systems.

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Most Syrian refugee families spend more than they earn to meet their needs. In 2014, the average expenditure was 1.6 times greater than income (UNHCR, 2014c) and the gap between expenditure and income has been progressively worsening. Several studies find households amassing high levels of debt: over 67% of refugees borrow money (CARE 2015), while as many as 86% of households took on debt in 2015, compared to 77% in 2014 (WFP, 2015). Refugee families are therefore at increased risk of taking up unsustainable levels of debt, falling into debt traps with no steady income streams to bail them out. Since 2014, decreasing level of income pushed the share of rent and utilities in total income to consistently increase over time; in addition, the average food share in total expenditure grew from 24% in 2014 (UNHCR, 2014c) to 40% in 2015 (UNHCR, 2015b), another indicator of increased economic hardship. In 2015, UNICEF collected post distribution monitoring data to understand how families spend their combined cash assistance from UNHCR and UNICEF. While some expenditures varied seasonally, the main expenditure items remained consistent: rent, utilities, food and children’s education. Over time, refugees have been found to be less able to pay down their debt, and less able to save. In terms of priorities, FGD highlighted that education and healthcare of the children are the most pressing priorities once the basic needs of the household (rent, utilities and food) are covered. In the current setting, the degree of enforcement of laws restricting access to labour markets on behalf of refugees is the fundamental driver of monetary welfare. When enforcement is tightened, families are unable to provide for their basic needs, with dire consequences for their children. In 2015, only 10% of Syrian refugees held a valid work permit (ILO 2015). With few opportunities available in formal labour markets, refugees are often pushed to accept informal work with low wages and poor safety standards. As mentioned earlier, the majority of Syrian refugees settled into municipalities in the North and Central governorates of the Kingdom. Patience and generosity in these communities rapidly wore out as newcomers started competing with the local vulnerable populations for employment opportunities (especially in the informal job market), resources and services. Combined with pre-existing structural problems, the large influx of refugees triggered a rapid increase in public frustration about water scarcity, unemployment, rural marginalization, and gaps in provision of healthcare and education. Existing studies found that the economic burden of hosting the Syrians seems to disproportionately weigh on vulnerable Jordanian populations. Refugee families have been receiving cash assistance and food vouchers from different UN agencies, mainly UNHCR, UNICEF and WFP. UN cash assistance proved effective at alleviating short-term monetary poverty, and combined, had a small but sizeable effect in supporting some families to borrow less money and keep their children in school in addition to meeting basic needs of their families. 2. UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme: UNICEF Jordan Country Office (JCO) initiated an unconditional Child Cash Grant (CCG) programme in February 2015 to assist children in the most vulnerable Syrian refugee families living in the host communities in Jordan. Under this humanitarian programme, a monthly cash transfer equal to JD 20 per child per month with a maximum cap depending on the number of children for each family [current 75 JOD for 4 children or more per family] is transferred to eligible families living in host communities based on their poverty and protection status, as identified through the Inter-agency Vulnerability Assessment Framework, thereby aiming to contribute to the means to meet the children’s basic needs and prevent vulnerable families from

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resorting to negative coping strategies that affect their children’s wellbeing. The purpose of the grant is to contribute toward expenses specific to children, through increasing income for the most vulnerable refugee families.3 On average in 2015, UNICEF assisted 55,000 children from 15,000 of the most vulnerable Syrian refugee families. 2.1 Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for UNICEF CCG ProgrammeA Monitoring and Evaluation Framework was developed for UNICEF's CCG programme enabling the development of relevant monitoring tools that are in synergy with the programme's intended purpose and results. Alongside the development of M&E tools, a Theory of Change (TOC) was developed upon which the framework relies. The basis of the framework, the resultant TOC is produced Annex 1.4

While the TOC approach is generally geared towards long-term development projects, its use for this humanitarian cash transfer programme was motivated by the protracted nature of the Syrian refugee crisis and the perceived shift in status from emergency to protracted crisis but also to understand the mechanisms and pathways on unconditional cash transfer in the humanitarian context. The TOC thus allows for longer term planning, which is critical in this context, anticipating progress from vulnerability and risk reduction of Syrian refugee population towards long-term poverty reduction and inequality, positive impact on human capital with focus on children [i.e., education, health, nutrition, non-food items] with increase in consumption and meeting children’s basic needs, flexibility to allow refugee households to make consumption decisions and contribution in the local economy. Also, the evaluation framework is outlined, again with clear links between key programme assumptions and the final evaluative criteria. The evaluation framework provides a structure for the end-of-programme evaluation of both the implementation and the conceptual framework underlying the programme.2.2 Post Distribution Monitoring [PDM]A core element of UNICEF's CCG programme is the independent third-party monitoring which enables UNICEF to effectively and efficiently monitor progress at the activity, output and outcome levels. The third-party monitoring consisted of a PDM questionnaire administered via household visits to a sample of 500 Syrian refugee families spread across all governorates of Jordan in a representative manner. Additionally, qualitative data collection in the form of focus group discussions (FGDs) and case study interviews were conducted. The purpose of this monitoring was to provide with regular data to determine whether or not the CCG programme progressed as planned, whether the programme achieved its intended results at the output level and whether any trends can be observed at the outcome level.More specifically, the PDM focuses on tracking immediate intended and unintended results such as spending patterns, especially those related to child needs and negative coping mechanisms. However, higher level results (i.e. long term outcomes) concerning possible behavioural change such as an increase or decrease in child labour, cannot be accurately measured through this data collection, nor can they be exclusively attributed to the CCG due to the nature of the environment in which this programme operates (i.e. its relative contribution to the overall assistance provided by UNHCR, WFP and other actors) as well as the fact that changes in behaviours take time to manifest. 3 The CCG serves as to supplement to the families who are already receiving cash transfer from UNHCR. All families addressed by this study are receiving cash grants from both agencies. 4 The TOC is a dynamic document and therefore may be subject to change over the lifetime of the programme. The TOC from the South African Child Support Grant influenced the development of the TOC for this programme. http://www.unicef.org/southafrica/SAF_resources_csg2012s.pdf

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In 2015, UNICEF through its third party monitoring partners conducted three waves of post distribution monitoring in June, August and November, eight focus group discussions and three case studies. Whilst each of these waves of monitoring took a sample of 500 families, 431 families panel were maintained throughout with total attrition rate at 13.8%. For more details on UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme’s Post Distribution Monitoring in 2015, access: UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme, Post Distribution Monitoring Report

[February - June 2015] UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme, Post Distribution Monitoring Report [July -

August 2015] UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme, Post Distribution Monitoring Report 2015 UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme, Post Distribution Monitoring Data Viz 2015 Post Distribution Monitoring Tools

- Post Distribution Monitoring Questionnaire - Post Distribution Monitoring Focus Group Discussion Guide - Post Distribution Monitoring Case Study Guide

3. UNHCR Cash Assistance ProgrammeUNHCR initiated a programme of unrestricted cash assistance for Syrian refugees outside the refugee camps in Jordan in 2012. The programme has grown to include 30,000 families on a monthly basis as of mid-2016. The programme uses an individual assessment process based on the aforementioned VAF. The primary focus is welfare groups (i.e. poverty analysis) and additional prioritization factors – commonly referred to as specific needs – are combined to determine eligibility. The assistance level is set in relation to the “Basic Household Items” segment of the Minimum Expenditure Basket in Jordan (http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/download.php?id=9097) and thus, assistance ranges from 80 JD for single headed households to the upper limit of 155 JD, which is paid to families of 7 and above.2.3 Post-Distribution Monitoring (PDM)UNHCR runs quarterly post-distribution monitoring rounds at a nationally representative level. The primary focus of the PDMs is the process as well as utilization of the provided assistance. Additional information is gathered on the impact on negative coping mechanisms. This work is complemented by qualitative feedback stemming from the participatory assessment process and UNHCR’s structured community dialogues through community centres and committees.The PDM seeks to identify elements impeding on the quick and reliable delivery of assistance. It also aims to identify shifts in spending patterns as well as a verification of the desired reduction in negative coping mechanisms.The PDM falls short when trying to understand behavioural changes – particularly around poverty-related issues. Similarly, PDMs do not produce the best data to gauge long-term impact of the assistance provided.4. Delivery Mechanism: UNICEF and UNHCR beneficiary families receive an SMS notification to advise them when the grant is available for collection, that it is for the needs of their children and families, and to collect it through the Cairo-Amman Bank network which utilises biometric iris-scan identification technology. This methodology is highly cost effective, presents minimal opportunity for fraudulent activity, and maximises the

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share of donor funding made available to the beneficiary due to its cost effectiveness.5

5. ObjectivesThe overall objectives of the monitoring the UNICEF and UNHCR cash grant programmes are:

To monitor the efficiency, effectiveness and accountability of the UNICEF unconditional child cash grant programme and UNHCR cash transfer programme in the humanitarian context in Jordan.

To monitor complementarity as well as gaps between UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP in securing the survival minimum expenditure basket for the most vulnerable welfare groups as identified by the VAF.

To monitor programme operational process and beneficiary spending patterns for cash and its impact on family’s welfare including focusing on children’s health, education, nutrition, and also how it influences coping mechanisms and broader protection dividends as experienced by the beneficiaries.

To monitor the impacts of the UNICEF and UNHCR cash transfer programme on local markets and contribution in the overall economy.

To provide regular feedback to UNICEF and UNHCR and development partners on the monitoring analysis and to document lessons learning from humanitarian cash programming and possible transfer of knowledge for national social protection systems in Jordan.

6. Scope of Work6.1Post Distribution Monitoring (PDM): PDM will be undertaken in two ways:

Programme operational process monitoring: UNICEF/UNHCR will directly implement RapidPro6 to monitor the key operational process aspects of the child cash grant programme. UNICEF/UNHCR RapidPro monitoring system will collection quantitative data on issues directly related to operational system such as confirmation of families receiving the cash grant, SMS messaging service for communication, understanding on the sources and purpose of the cash grant, delivery mechanisms [IRIS scan system], and difficulties in access to delivery system [travel time, waiting time, security, cost, and overall ease of cash collection etc.]. This data will be collected on monthly basis. UNICEF/UNHCR will provide this data to the organization to be incorporated in the final analysis. The international/national organizations or individuals are expected to provide technical expertise in the design of the questions for the RapidPro monitoring system.

Third party post distribution monitoring: In 2016, UNICEF/UNHCR plans to conduct two rounds [July/August and November] of third party monitoring for cash transfer programmes for Syrian refugee families in Jordan. The purpose is to conduct a regular monitoring to determine whether the UNICEF and UNHCR cash transfer programme achieved its intended results at output level and ascertain whether any changes are observed at outcome level. Monitoring should answer key questions outlined in the revised Monitoring and Evaluation Framework.

5 Schimmel, V. (2015) “UNHCR cash programming in emergencies – implementation and coordination experience during the Syrian refugee response in Jordan.” Available from: http://www.ennonline.net/fex/48/unhcrcash 6 RapidPro is an interactive messaging system designed to deliver and receive vital real-time information to and from individuals. RapidPro has been used by governments, agencies, and other services providers to connect people to services, gather information about the spread of epidemics, provide critical public health messages, promote the voice and perspective of young people, and more.

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This post-distribution monitoring will focus on impact and tracking changes in relation to immediate, intended and unintended results such as spending patterns, standard living conditions and more specifically issues related to children’s wellbeing, health, education, nutrition, and negative coping mechanisms adopted and reported by recipients of cash transfer. Also, due to the programme design, there will be limitations and constraints to ascertain the attribution of cash transfer programme (and its relative contribution to the overall cash and other assistance provided by WFP and other humanitarian partners) towards changes and impacts. Nevertheless, efforts will be made to capture changes at individual level, supplemented by qualitative evidence.In addition, it will monitor the impacts of the cash distribution on local markets and contribution in the overall economy. Last, the monitoring will provide regular feedback to UNICEF and development partners on the monitoring analysis and to document lessons learning from humanitarian cash programming and possible transfer of knowledge for national social protection systems in Jordan and beyond for MENA region.

6.2Methodology: This monitoring exercise will comprise of:

1) Desk review of relevant analytical reports on cash assistance for the Syrian refugee in the host communities,

2) Review and update of monitoring methodology and tools [M&E Framework including Theory of Change, PDM Questionnaire, FGD Guide and Case Study Guide and development of additional tools as consider appropriate];

3) Monthly RapidPro post distribution monitoring of operational process of cash transfer programme; UNICEF/UNHCR will directly implement however tools will be developed in the context of revised M&E Framework;

4) Third party research agency/organization conduct two rounds of data collection in July/August and November/December;

5) Third Party qualitative data collection and analysis: focus group discussion and interviews;

6) Third Party Case studies: In-depth investigations into changes experienced by Syrian refugee families, and children after they start receiving cash assistance. Another aspect to be investigated will be the positive/negative impact on host communities and local economy.

6.3 Baseline: UNICEF will make available data of 500 randomly sampled families (country wide) with panel of 431 families who has been interviewed in the June, August and November 2015 of the UNICEF child cash grant beneficiaries. In addition, UNHCR will provide complementary data from its PDMs (where applicable), registration updates, and home visit assessment results as well as VAF scores. This data will be used to establish baseline for the post-distribution monitoring. These families will be part of the monitoring and additional families will be included as outlined in the Post Distribution Monitoring plan below. 6.4 Post Distribution Monitoring:

RapidPro: Monthly RapidPro post distribution monitoring with all the beneficiaries of the operational process of child cash grant programme.

Quantitative Date Collection: Quantitative data collection from sample of 2000 families [proposed breakdown provided below] of UNICEF child cash grant and UNHCR cash assistance. This data plan represents an initial proposal and the third party monitoring partner are expected to provide technical expertise in the revision and finalization of sampling.

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The proposed sample breakdown7 is:1000 families receiving UNICEF CCG, UNHCR and WFP assistance.

600 out of total 8,000 families receiving UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP Full Assistance level.

400 out of total 6,500 families receiving UNICEF, UNHCR and WFP Half Assistance level.

150 families receiving UNHCR and WFP cash and food voucher assistance only.

150 out of 4,200 families receiving UNHCR and WFP half level assistance, not receiving UNICEF assistance.

850 families receiving only WFP food voucher assistance.

250 out of 9,000 families receiving only WFP full level assistance, not receiving UNICEF and UNHCR assistance.

600 out of 21,250 families receiving only WFP half level assistance.

Qualitative Date Collection: The third party monitoring partner will revise methodology and tools for qualitative data collection for the UNICEF and UNHCR cash transfer programme. This will include focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and case studies including child participatory tools. The sample will be selected from the targeted families on the basis of data provided by the UNICEF/UNHCR. This should include and be representative of all the relevant household profiles (e.g. families with # children, female-headed, male-headed, and child-headed families, families hosting unaccompanied and separated children, household with children under five, etc.). In addition, UNICEF/UNHCR third party monitoring partner will develop tools to investigate the possible positive or negative impact on local markets, and contribution in the overall economy. The partner is also expected to prepare data collection methodology for this section.

7. Roles and ResponsibilitiesThe project will be jointly implemented by an international or national organization/individual(s) – (third party monitoring partner), in partnership with a Jordan based research agency/organizations (research agency). Overall, third party monitoring partner will be responsible for the timely and high quality deliverables and contract with UNICEF/UNHCR. The third party monitoring partner will also provide technical leadership on all aspects of the deliverables. The Jordan based research agency will be responsible for field work including pre-testing, data collection, data validation, data quality control and additional support in data collection. 7. DeliverablesProposed deliverables are as follows:Deliverables Responsibility Timeli

nePrepare work plan Third party monitoring partner

& research agency2 day

Desk review Third party monitoring partner 1 weekReview and revision of M&E Framework Third party monitoring partner 1

WeekReview and revision of methodology and tools and development of new tools

Third party monitoring partner

7 Additionally, the sample will also ensure equal representation of severely and highly vulnerable families.

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Translation of research tools in ArabicResearch agency

2 weeks

Pre-testing and finalization of PDM tools Third party monitoring partner & research agency

1 Week

Field data collection [Round 1] Research agency 4 Weeks

First post distribution monitoring report, infographic and key findings presentation in data viz. Also present on the launch event (virtually or in person).Make available full clean data set.

Third party monitoring partner 6 Weeks

Revision of PDM Tools (if any) Third party monitoring partner 3 daysField data collection [Round 2] Third party monitoring partner

& research agency4 Weeks

Final post distribution monitoring report, infographic and key findings presentation in data viz. Also present on the launch event (virtually or in person)Make available full clean data set.

Third party monitoring partner 6 Weeks

8. SupervisionHead social inclusion and policy (UNICEF) and senior field coordinator (UNHCR) will provide direct supervision on the assignment. 9. Delivery Dates The reports would need to be delivered to UNICEF/UNHCR according a detailed schedule based on the table above, by email and hard copies. 10.Official Travel InvolvedTravel to all the areas of data collection will be required by the national partner. International partner will not require to travel to Jordan per se. If it is required, it has to be budgeted in the proposal. 11.Desired Qualifications, Specialized Knowledge or ExperienceFor international organizations/individuals [third party monitoring partner]:

At least 10 years of experience in monitoring and evaluation for social protection programmes and preferably humanitarian cash transfer programmes or child focused social protection programmes.

Proven expertise of high level technical report writing for social protection programmes/humanitarian cash transfer programmes.

Demonstrate leading experience especially on technical issues in designing, planning, organizing and conducting large scale surveys preferably in social protection programmes/humanitarian cash transfer programme.

Demonstrate expertise in data validation and data quality control and demonstrated capacity in large-scale research design.

Strong technical team leader/expert having not less than 10 years of relevant working experience and fully available to undertake the project.

Submit CVs of all the team members involved in the project.

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Advantage of work experience and expertise in humanitarian situation, humanitarian cash transfer, refugees, livelihoods, and social policies for children.

Proven high level skills in handling complex data and data visualization combined with storytelling with an innovative means of communication.

For national organizations (research agency): At least 8 years of experience in designing, planning, organizing and

conducting large scale surveys preferably in social protection programmes in Jordan.

Demonstrated expertise in data validation and data quality control and demonstrated capacity in large-scale research design.

Strong survey technical team leader by an expert having not less than 5 years of relevant working experience.

To be able to leverage sufficient and experienced manpower to carry out the assignment effectively and efficiently in Jordan.

Expertise to work in both English and Arabic language. Preference will be given to research agencies that have sufficient experience

of collecting data in field on pcs/ tablets / i-pads etc.  Proven track record in programme management; previous experience with

UN agency, large NGOs or government would be an asset, but it is not mandatory.

Submit full CV featuring details of projects undertaken and completed, name of the organizations, year of undertaking and completion, coverage of survey work, etc.

Legal documentation that demonstrates the organization is registered and has authorization to operate in Jordan must be presented.

12.Performance indicators for evaluation of results Deliverables submitted on time, Quality of the data collection tools, Quality of the data collection and analysis.

13.Frequency of performance reviews Every month. Jointly done by UNICEF/UNHCR.14.Call for proposalsItems to be included in the proposal:

- Methodology- Work plan with detailed timeline- Budget- Composition of the team- Detailed schedule for the data collection- Sample of previous work- CV of key team members with assurance letter that team members are fully

committed to undertake the assignment. Any change in team members will be subject to approval from UNICEF/UNHCR on very exceptional basis.

14.UNICEF recourse in case of unsatisfactory performanceIn case of unsatisfactory performance the payment will be withhold until quality deliverables are submitted. If the firm is unable to complete the assignment, the contract will be terminated by notification letter sent 30 days prior to the

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termination date. In the meantime, UNICEF/UNHCR will initiate another selection in order to identify appropriate candidate.15.Request for proposal evaluation and weighting criteria

- 70 % technical- 30 % financial- 100% total

1) Overall response (10 points)- General adherence to terms of reference and tender requirements

2) Company and key personnel (30 points)- Team member(s) meet academic and qualification requirements- Company meets minimum 10 years of experience- Company has previously conducted similar work- Company is properly registered a/o has required certifications, memberships, etc.3) Proposed methodology and approach (30 points)- Deliverables are addressed as per TOR- Proposed timelines are metMinimum technical score: 70% of 70 points = 49 points Conditions

- The contractor will work on its own computer(s) and use its own office resources and materials in the execution of this assignment. The contractor’s fee shall be inclusive of all office administrative costs

- Local travel and airport transfers (where applicable) will be covered in accordance with UNICEF rules and tariffs.

- Flight costs will be covered at economy class rate as per UNICEF policies.- Any air tickets for travel will be authorized by and paid for by UNICEF

directly, and will be for the attendance of meetings and workshops.- Please also see UNICEF’s standard terms and conditions attached.

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Annex 1: Theory of Change for UNICEF Child Cash Grant Programme

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