2016 U.S. forage statistics 2016 national forage review · Total alfalfa hay production ... USDA National Ag Statistics Service 2016 annual Crop Production report, ... For market

John Deere netwrap with TamaTec+™ technologyGiving you MORE than ever, for LESS.

• MORE footage – LESS cost per bale• MORE bales per roll – LESS downtime• MORE baling productivity

P.O. Box 506, Highway 61-151 South, Dubuque, IOWA 52004-0506Phone: (563) 583-3035 Fax: (563) 583-3531 TOLL FREE: 1-800-225-8946Email: [email protected] www.ambraco.com

Product Name Width Roll Length

John Deere CoverEdge TamaTec+ 51 in. (130 cm) 12,100 ft. (3,700 m)


John Deere Edge to Edge TamaTec+ 48 in. (123 cm) 13,200 ft. (4,025 m)


available at your local John Deere Dealer



















ASK YOUR JOHN DEERE DEALER ABOUT NEW WRAP!

Tama USA Inc.Toll Free: 1-800-225-8946Website: www.tama-usa.com

2016 U.S. forage statistics2016 U.S. forage statistics

more than 5,000 thousand tons

1,000 to 5,000 thousand tons

500 to 1,000 thousand tons

0 to 500 thousand tons

no data reported

Total greenchop production






Total corn silage production






Total other hay production






Total alfalfa hay production






Total forage production

Total forage production is represented by the total of alfalfa, other hay, silage and greenchop production.

2016 national forage review

2016 Top 10 statesAlfalfa hay

State ranking

StateAcreage

(in thousand acres)

StateYield

(tons/acre)State

Production (in thousand

tons)

1 Montana 1,800 Arizona 8.6 California 5,040

2 South Dakota 1,700 California 7.0 Idaho 4,400

3 North Dakota 1,400 Texas 5.3 Montana 3,600

4Idaho, Minnesota, Wisconsin

1,000

Washington 5.2 Minnesota,South Dakota 3,400

5 Oregon 4.7

6 New Mexico 4.6 Wisconsin 3,200

7 Nebraska 750Idaho, Nevada 4.4

Nebraska 3,113

8 California 720 Kansas 3,010

9 Kansas 700 Kansas 4.3 Arizona 2,408

10 Colorado 680 Indiana, Iowa, Utah 4.2 Colorado, N. Dakota 2,380

Corn silage1 Wisconsin 790

Arizona, Idaho 30.0Wisconsin 16,590

2 New York 510 Minnesota 8,385

3 Pennsylvania 440 Oregon 27.0 California 8,348

4 South Dakota 400 California 26.5 New York 8,160

5 Minnesota 390 Washington 26.0 Iowa 7,920

6 Michigan 340

Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Utah 24.0

Pennsylvania 7,700

7 Iowa 330 Idaho 7,050

8 California 315 South Dakota 7,000

9 Texas 250 Michigan 6,630

10 Nebraska 240 New Mexico 23.0 Nebraska 4,680

Sorghum silage1 Kansas 95 Arkansas 18.0 Kansas 1,473

2 Texas 85Illinois, Missouri 17.0

Texas 1,233

3 South Dakota 40 South Dakota 520

4 New Mexico 18 Kansas 15.5 New Mexico 234

5 Oklahoma 15 Texas 14.5 Missouri 153

6 Colorado, Nebraska 10

Nebraska 14.0 Oklahoma 150

7Louisiana, New Mexico,South Dakota 13.0

Nebraska 140

8 Missouri 9 Colorado 90

9 Georgia 8 Georgia 80

10 North Carolina 4 Georgia, Missisippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma 10.0 North Carolina 40

Source: USDA National Ag Statistics Service 2016 annual Crop Production report, Jan. 2017

States that provided data to NASS were divided into the following regions:• Southwest: Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas• East: Kentucky, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania• Northwest: Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming• Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin

For market reports updated monthly, visit www.progressiveforage.com/news/hay-market-reports

Dec2015

Jan2016

Feb

$204

$158

$131

$110

East (average)

Southwest (average)

Northwest (average)

Midwest (average)

Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec100

150

200

250 Alfalfa hay market trends (dollars per ton)

Weather and droughtU.S. hay-growing areas considered

under drought fell to lows of 8 percent in March-June 2016, but then doubled in late summer and fall and doubled again to 32 percent by early December.

Thanks to widespread precipitation to end 2015, 2016 started out as one of the most promising years in half a decade. Although the West was still dry, the high-level Sierra Nevada snowpack depths even offered optimism in California.

While overall conditions improved, signs of problems began to surface in March. Pockets of abnormal dryness began to develop across Texas and Oklahoma, into Oregon and stretching from the Southwest into North Dakota. Northern California continued to experience incremental improvement, while Southern California entered a fi fth year of drought.

By early July, drought emerged in the interior Southeast and from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Drought pockets developed across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, and returned to the Northwest. Central and Southern California remained the epicenter of long-term drought.

As of early August, drought intensifi ed across the Plains, South, lower Great Lakes and Northeast, but had mostly shrunk in the Midwest. Conditions worsened in the Southeast and New England.

While many drought-affected areas in the central and eastern U.S. experienced some improvement by early September, conditions intensifi ed in the Northeast, which collectively experienced its worst drought since 2002.

By November, exceptional drought covered a large area of the Southeast. In contrast, precipitation provided parts of the Northeast with drought relief. Wet weather covered the Northwest, and some improvement even reached Northern California, where statewide drought coverage hit its lowest level since April 30, 2013.

As 2016 came to a close, December precipitation – very heavy in some areas – again offered optimism the new year would be better from a moisture standpoint.

Exports overcome headwindsDespite a strong U.S. dollar and

other headwinds, U.S. alfalfa hay exports set a new volume record in 2016.

After a slow start, 2016 U.S. alfalfa hay exports picked up the pace, topping 200,000 metric tons (MT) for seven consecutive months (May-November; December totals were not yet available). Through November, alfalfa hay exports had already set a

new annual record high at more than 2.4 million MT, surpassing previous highs set in 2013 and 2015. Monthly exports of other hay lagged year-ago levels in most months, but were still on target to hit the largest volume since 2013.

While volumes were up for several hay-related products, lower prices resulted in lower export values per unit.

Top fi ve foreign markets for U.S. alfalfa hay were China, Japan, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and South Korea. Increases to the UAE and Saudi Arabia came with an asterisk: Having previously purchased farm ground, mostly in the southwest U.S., in some cases they were exporting hay to themselves.

The global market was thrown into a state of confusion in late August, impacted by China’s import restrictions over concerns the Zika virus could be spread through hay and the bankruptcy of South Korea’s Hanlin Shipping Co., the world’s seventh-largest shipping company. Later in the year, large inventories of hay acquired by China began to back up, adding to export demand concerns.

Production and inventoriesDespite improved yields over

2015, alfalfa and alfalfa mixture dry hay production was down slightly due to a reduction in acres harvested.

• Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures:Harvested area, at 16.9 million acres, was down 5 percent from a year earlier; average yield was estimated at 3.45 tons per acre, up 0.13 ton. At 58.3 million tons, total production was down 1 percent. Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa and Nebraska saw record-high yields; New Hampshire and Rhode Island saw record lows.

• Other hay: Harvested area, at 36.6 million acres, was down 4 percent from the previous year; average yield was estimated at a record 2.09 tons per acre. At 76.5 million tons, total harvest was up 1 percent. Indiana, Montana and Oregon saw record-high yields.

• Total forages: USDA estimated total forage production (all dry hay, haylage and green chop) in 17 major states at 90.7 million tons, down less than 1 percent from a year earlier. U.S. corn silage production was estimated at 125.7 million tons on 6.19 million acres, both down 1 percent from 2015. Average yields topped 20 tons per acre for a third consecutive year. With the smallest harvested area since 2011, sorghum

silage production was estimated at 4.17 million tons, down 7 percent.

• Hay stocks: U.S. farms entered the winter of 2016-2017 with the largest hay inventories since 2010. All hay stored on U.S. farms as of Dec. 1, 2016, totaled 95.8 million tons, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Production impacted by drought infl uenced regional hay inventories.

• New alfalfa/mixture seedings: Low hay prices may be the reason for reduced new seeding of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures in 2016. At 2.268 million acres, the total is down about 11 percent from 2015 and the lowest acreage devoted to new seeding dating back to at least 1997. Largest declines in new seeding area were in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Nebraska and Minnesota; North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana posted the largest increases.

Markets and pricesAfter a slight uptick in spring,

U.S. prices declined for eight consecutive months to end the year, pushing nationwide average prices to six-year lows.

For most of the country, 2016 was a good year to make hay. Selling it profi tably might be another matter.

Calendar year 2016 U.S. alfalfa hay prices averaged $140 per ton, with a peak of $153 per ton in April and a low of $129 per ton in December.

Calendar year 2016 U.S. other-hay prices averaged $121 per ton, with a peak of $130 per ton in April and a low of $113 per ton in July.

Other factorsLand values were pressured lower,

but interest rates are headed higher.Low commodity prices and farm

income pressured agricultural land values and cash rents lower in most parts of the U.S. in 2016. The Pacifi c Northwest was mostly buffered from the decline, with limited offerings met with strong demand.

Along with the hope hay prices will increase in 2017, producers will likely encounter something else they haven’t seen in a while – rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate 0.25 percent in December 2016 and hinted three similar increases may be coming in 2017.

Jerome, ID — (800) 320-1424 or (208) 324-7513 Edgerton, WI — (608) 576-2580 Irvine, CA — (949) 253-4191 or (877) 532-4376

2016 U.S. forage statistics

2,100

1,400

7,000

400

3,400

1,700

150

3,100

South Dakota12,985 +4.9%

+25.0%

810482842

LegendState ranking-

all forage production

All forage production(in thousands of tons)

Percentage increase/decrease in forage production 2015-2016

State ranking- alfalfa yield

State ranking-alfalfa acres

Percentage increase/decrease of alfalfa new plantings

State ranking-total hay acres

State ranking-other hay yield

State ranking-corn silage yield

Alfalfa yield(in thousands of tons)

Alfalfa acres(in thousands of acres)

Alfalfa new plantings(in thousands of acres)

2016 Total hay acres(in thousands of acres)

Other hay yield(in thousands of tons)

Other hay acres(in thousands of acres)

Corn silage acres(in thousands of acres)

Corn silage yield(in thousands of tons)

State ranking-other hay acres

State ranking-corn silage acres

1

Source: Crop Production 2016 Summary Report, USDA, NASS. Statistical ties are represented by the same numerical ranking.

1,107

410

2,210

85

2,236

430

50

840

Washington6,232 -3.8%

-17.0%

1923132615171825

1,917

710

1,080

40

1,974

420

35

1,130

Oregon4,971 +27.9%

-22.0%

2213151616272820

1,536

480

8,348

315

5,040

720

85

1,200

California17,480 -8.5%

-6%

31612583819

266

140

168

7

836

190

20

330

Nevada1,270 +10.6%

+11.0%

3939233925414235

726

330

7,050

235

4,400

1,000

115

1,330

Idaho13,751 +15.0%7

31229471115

1,925

1,100

2,625

150

2,380

1,400

120

2,500

North Dakota6,930 -2.0%

+33.0%

15121011315137

884

520

598

26

1,400

500

45

1,020

Wyoming2,882 -0.3%29

29172314333421

374

170

1,176

49

2,226

530

55

700

Utah3,776 +8.1%

-15.0%

2637143713262627

168

35

1,320

44

2,408

280

55

315

Arizona3,896 +1.0%25

4294620232737

145

85

1,725

75

874

190

25

275

New Mexico2,744 -19.9%30

43224225192339

1,190

700

3,360

140

2,380

680

70

1,380

Colorado6,930 -5.8%

-18.0%

1522101710121512

1,530

850

1,210

55

3,600

1,800

120

2,650

Montana6,340 +8.7%17

17314124245

2,100

1,400

7,000

400

3,400

1,700

150

3,100

South Dakota12,985 +4.9%

+25.0%

810482842

2,635

1,700

4,680

240

3,113

750

110

2,450

Nebraska10,696 -2.8%

-21.0%

11877710108

3,230

1,900

2,925

150

3,010

700

75

2,600

Kansas10,005 +1.6%12

685914136

5,040

2,800

300

20

798

210

35

3,010

Oklahoma6,138 -0.5%20

32422336363

11,750

4,700

4,250

250

689

130

20

4,830

Texas17,713 +9.3%2

1271281191

1,040

520

8,385

390

3,400

1,000

200

1,520

Minnesota15,681 -4.1%

-13.0%

42542342511

726

330

16,590

790

3,200

1,000

320

1,330

Wisconsin29,986 -8.8%

-27.0%

13162941115

900

360

7,920

330

2,310

550

80

910

Iowa12,223 -5.8%

-11.0%

9271228125723

5,330

2,600

1,200

80

736

230

35

2,830

Missouri7,826 -5.8%13

22632125204

2,400

1,200

30

2

14

4

1

1,204

Arkansas2,444 +7.0%

NC

31938940474618

1,102

380

17

1

0

0

0

380

Louisiana1,119 +2.8%

NC

4024432743484834

1,408

640

140

10

0

0

0

640

Mississippi1,548 -10.2%

NC

3519431943424129

810

300

665

35

0

0

0

300

Florida1,475 +19.2%

NC

3730433243313238

1,380

600

760

40

0

0

0

600

Georgia2,140 -7.2%

NC

3320432143292830

672

320

182

13

0

0

0

320

South Carolina854 +9.2%

NC

4133433143403936

3,870

1,800

760

40

54

15

3

1,815

Tennessee4,684 +1.4%

+200.0%

23532633292810

5,040

2,100

1,560

80

540

150

25

2,250

Kentucky7,140 +0.7%

-7.0%

1432842722209

600

250

1,680

80

897

230

35

480

Illinois3,467 -4.5%27

34203421212033

899

290

2,200

100

882

210

35

500

Indiana3,981 +25.0%

NC

2428213323181732

437

230

6,630

340

1,920

640

80

870

Michigan11,335 +13.0%

-30.0%

10351635119624

1,344

640

3,255

210

1,122

330

70

970

Ohio6,332 -23.9%

-30.0%

1821181919131222

2,645

1,150

2,600

130

202

65

9

1,215

Virginia5,447 +3.4%

-25.0%

217291029161617

1,564

680

620

40

23

7

1

687

North Carolina2,207 -17.3%

-50.0%

3215351836322828

2,100

1,000

7,700

440

1,050

350

80

1,350

Pennsylvania13,809 +1.5%

-16.0%

6101913176314

1,515

1,010

8,160

510

770

350

90

1,360

New York14,249 -1.4%

-10.0%

5182512174213

1,026

570

247

13

53

17

1

587

West Virginia1,326 +3.0%

-50.0%

3826332232383931

175

103

80

5

39

11

2

114

New Jersey294 -10.1%

-33.0%

4641344134454443

288

160

1,700

85

75

30

5

190

Vermont3,023 +2.8%28

38313831201841

100

50

280

14

4

3

1

53

New Hampshire384 +1.6%

NC

4445414441373745

76

40

389

21

11

5

1

45

Connecticut476 -2.7%

NC

4346404538353546

241

130

532

28

22

10

2

140

Maine795 +2.8%

NC

4240364035343342

128

85

224

14

16

7

1

92

Massachusetts368 -9.4%

NC

4544374236393744

8

6

37

2

1

1

0

7

Rhode Island46 -4.2%

NC

4848424842464648

432

180

900

50

144

35

5

215

Maryland1,476 -3.0%

-38.0%

3636303630282540

38

12

90

5

14

5

1

17

Delaware142 14.5%

NC

4747384738444447

Total U.S. forage acresin thousands of acres

Other hay 36,576

Alfalfa 16,885

Silage 6,186

Greenchop 4,564Combined total 64,211

Total U.S. tons harvestedin thousands of tons

tons/acreOther hay 2.1 76,518

tons/acreAlfalfa 3.5 58,263

tons/acreSilage 20.3 125,670

tons/acreGreenchop 7.1 32,378Combined total 292,829

1,701

810

112

7

0

0

0

810

Alabama1,813 -16.8%34

14431543434226

NC

76,518

36,576

125,670

6,186

58,263

16,885

2,268

53,461

United States292,829 -0.9%

-10.5% -1.3%

-5.0% -0.3%

-1.2%

-1.8% -0.8%

+1.3%

-18.0%

+17.0%

NC

+17.0%

+20.0%

NC

NC

NC

+33.0%

-17.0%

NC

Documents

2016 U.S. forage statistics 2016 national forage review · Total alfalfa hay production ... USDA National Ag Statistics Service 2016 annual Crop Production report, ... For market