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2014 Law & Citizenship Conference
Ohio Center for Law-Related Education
Campaigns, Elections, and the Media
Because candidates can’t meet with every constituent, what voters know about
politicians and campaigns comes to them almost entirely from the media. How do media shape elections?
What is the relationship between the media, candidates, and election coverage?
Before we can give you the information, we have to get it ourselves. But…
No debates
Limited access, especially Gov. Kasich
Gubernatorial candidates no longer talking to us at any length, say we have to rely on campaign spokespersons
Some of what we’ve done so far…
1. Insight major issues series: jobs/economy; taxes/budgeting; education; “hot button” issues2. Profiled lieutenant governor candidates3. Shown how faith of Kasich/FitzGerald plays a role in their decision-making4. Numerous stories on campaign events on local government funding, higher education5. Ad watches or stories on new commercials6. Profiled local congressional races (last week)7. Profiled statewide downticket races (this wk)8. Voters Guide, put in central Ohio ZIP and get your ballot (coming end of month)9. Covering battle over early voting
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURTFOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF OHIO
EASTERN DIVISIONOHIO STATE CONFERENCE OF THENATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE
ADVANCEMENT OF COLOREDPEOPLE, et al.,
Plaintiffs,v.
JON HUSTED, et al.,Defendants.
Case No. 2:14-cv-404Judge Peter C. Economus
Magistrate Judge Norah McCann King
Not to mention…
• Broke story about Ed FitzGerald found by police with a woman not his wife in a parked car at 4:30 a.m. in October 2012
• Broke story about Ed FitzGerald not having a regular driver’s license
Were those incidents important?
% in Dispatch Poll less likely to vote for FitzGerald because of:
Car incident: 44%
No driver’s license: 51%
Polling pointers
Differing methodologies
Not predictive – “snapshot in time”
Likely voter = holy grail
What AAPOR Thinks You Should Know
1. Who did the poll? Who paid for it?
2. When was it done?
3. Who was sampled?
4. How were respondents contacted?
5. What is sampling error?
6. Why are data weighted?
7. How is the question worded?
8. How are the questions ordered?
The Dispatch Poll
-It’s not supposed to work (self-selected respondents)
-But those who return poll = LV
-OK since sample chosen randomly
Dispatch Poll track record
2012: Final presidential poll matched election night total; Nate Silver says
nation’s most accurate single-state poll
2010: 2-point Kasich margin in final poll was same as election
2008: Within 1 point of Obama’s and McCain’s’ Ohio totals
But also…
2006: Actual winners were same as poll winners except one, but the poll’s
margins were too high
2005: Poll forecast easy passage of Reform Ohio Now amendments; oops
Statistically: 1/20 polls blow up
Are we sure…
Because candidates can’t meet with every constituent, what voters know
about politicians and campaigns comes to them almost entirely from
the media…
The Reality, 1.0
Declining newspaper circulation (although much greater web use)
Declining newspaper staffs
Cutbacks in Ohio Statehouse bureaus
Common Core dichotomy
The Reality, 2.0
Back in the day…maybe 3 channels…Walter Cronkite “that’s the way it is.”
Now hundreds of channels, talk radio, internet, blogs, mobile access
Multiple sources…who consumes Fox Newsvs. MSNBC vs. NPR…vs. SNS like Facebook, Twitter, you name it
Pew study from 2012 election
45% used their smartphone to read other people’s comments on a social networking site about a candidate or the campaign in general
35% used their smartphone to look up whether something they just heard about a candidate or the campaign in general was true
18% used their smartphone to post their own comments on a social networking site about a candidate or the campaign
48% of internet-using registered voters watch video news reports online about elections/politics
40% watch previously recorded videos online of speeches, press conferences or debates
39% watch informational videos online that explain a political issue
37% watch humorous or parody videos online dealing with political issues
36% watch political ads online
28% watch live videos online of candidate speeches, press conferences, or debates
The process of discovering political videos online is highly social. Some 62% of internet-using registered voters (52% of all registered voters) had others recommend online videos about the election or politics to them. On the flip side, 23% of internet-using registered voters (19% of all registered voters) have themselves encouraged others to watch online videos related to political issues.
http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheets/politics-fact-sheet/
Two truths
1. TV advertising still main way voters find out about candidates…for now
2. But more and more often, candidates are choosing voters almost as much as voters are choosing candidates.Political orgs aren’t quite the NSA yet…but you may be surprised by how much information political organizations have on you…and how they have fine-tuned such traits as what kind of car you own or whether you have a hunting/fishing license and connected it with political behavior
But how much do people care?
-OHIO VOTER TURNOUT-
1998 – 49.8%2002 – 47.2%2006 – 53.3%2010 – 49.2%
2014 - ???
No difference???
**2010 gubernatorial election decided:1. whether billions in state taxes would be cut2. whether Ohio would build high-speed 3C passenger rail3. if funding to schools and local governments would be cut4. how funds are divvied up among school districts, and how much would go to charter schools5. whether to require work activities to get food stamps 6. whether there would be new restrictions on abortion7. how closely fracking would be regulated8. if state’s economic development public or private9. how readily public records would be made available 10. whether more state services/facilities such as prisons would be privatizedAnd SB 5, early voting limits, Ohio health exchange, etc.
Web resources
sos.state.oh.us/SOS/elections.aspxvotesmart.org/lwvohio.org/
franklincountyconsortium.com/realclearpolitics.com
pollingreport.comaapor.org/For_Media/6015.htm#.VB9Dhyf7fXo
moritzlaw.osu.edu/election-law/commentary/free-and-fair/
dispatch.com/politics
