Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2013 Global Market Outlook for Soybeans, Soymeal and Corn
John BaizeUSSEC Luncheon
International Production & Processing ExpoAtlanta, Georgia
January 30, 20123
2012 Was A Very Unique Year
For the first time in more than 3 decades the U.S. Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay suffered droughts in the same calendar year.
South American soybean production in 2012 was reduced by 20.4 mmt or 15.1% versus 2011.
U.S. soybean production was reduced by 2.14 mmt or 2.5% versus 2011. Late rains boosted production.
In total soybean production in North and South America in 2012 was at least 21.9 mmt less than in 2011.
Water levels on Mississippi River are very low and interfering with barge shipments to Gulf.
2012 Has Been A Very Unique Year
Argentina’s corn crop in 2012 was reduced by 4.2 mmt (16.8%) versus 2011.
Fortunately, because of a large winter crop of corn in Brazil total South American corn production in 2012 was 11.875 mmt (12.7%) greater than in 2011.
U.S. corn production in 2012 was 40.1 mmt (12.7%) less than in 2011.
There were more quality problems (aflatoxin) with U.S. corn from 2012 crop because of heat and drought.
It remains exceptionally dry in the Midwest and Great Plains.
North and South American Soybean ProductionCalendar Years 1985 - 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
MM
T
North America South America
Global Soybean Production by Country2012/13 Marketing Year
Brazil31%
United States31%
Argentina21%
China5%
India4%
Paraguay3%
Canada2%
Other3%
Global Soybean Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13
176
185
197
187
216221
237
221
212
260264
239
269
172
184191 189
205
215
226230
221
238
251256
263
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13
MMT
Production Consumption
Annual Growth in Global Soybean Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13
12.21 12.92
6.98
-2.01
15.31
10.55 9.92
4.34
-9.01
15.0014.00
4.236.48
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
MMT
Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Cotton, and RicePercentage Change in Global Consumption 1990/91 – 2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Chan
ge %
Corn Cotton Soybeans Rice Wheat
Soybean demand up 151%; corn up by 85%, wheat up by only 24%
U.S. Average Soybean Yields1984 –2012
Surprisingly Good Yields in 2012
1.89
2.29 2.24 2.28
1.82
2.172.29 2.30
2.53
2.19
2.78
2.38
2.532.62 2.62
2.462.56
2.662.56
2.28
2.84 2.90 2.882.81
2.67
2.96 2.922.79
2.66
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1995 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
MT/
Hec
tare
U.S. Soybean Production2000 – 2012
75.0678.67
75.01
66.78
85.02 83.5187.00
72.86
80.75
91.42 90.6184.19 82.06
0102030405060708090100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MMT
%
U.S. Soybean Supply and DemandUSDA Estimates for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13
MMT
Attribute 2010/11 2011/12 USDA 2012/13
Begin Stocks 4.11 5.85 4.60Production 90.61 84.19 82.06Imports 0.38 0.44 0.54Total Supply 95.13 90.48 87.21Crush 44.86 46.35 43.69Exports 40.85 37.06 36.61Seed/Residual 3.54 2.48 3.51Total Use 89.28 85.87 83.56End Stocks 5.85 4.60 3.67
Value of U.S. Soybean Crop 1991-2012
U.S. Soymeal Supply and DemandUSDA Estimates for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13
MMT
Attribute 2010/11 2011/12 USDA 2012/13
Begin Stocks .274 .318 0.272Production 35.608 37.218 34.65Imports 0.163 0.196 .23Total Supply 36.045 37.731 35.15Domestic Use 27.489 28.622 26.99Exports 8.238 8.837 7.89Total Use 35.727 37.459 34.88End Stocks 0.318 0.272 .27
U.S. forecasted to export 0.95 mmt (10.7%) less soymeal in 2012/13
U.S. Soybean Crush and Exports2000/10 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
44.63 46.2643.95
41.6346.16 47.32 49.20 49.08
45.2347.67
44.85 46.3543.68
27.10 28.95 28.4224.13
29.8625.58
30.39 31.5434.82
40.80 40.8537.06 36.61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MMT
Crush Exports
U.S. Soymeal Exports and Consumption2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13
7.34 7.275.73 4.69
6.66 7.30 7.99 8.38 7.7110.12
8.24 8.84 7.89
28.3629.55 29.10 28.53
30.45 30.1131.17
30.1527.90 27.80 27.49
28.6226.99
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MMT
Exports Consmption
U.S. New-Crop Soybean and Soymeal Export SalesJanuary 19, 2012 and January 17, 2013
27% More Soybeans and 42.3% More Soymeal Sold This Year
26.01
33.02
4.496.39
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011/12 2012/13
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal
Global Soymeal Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
116.2123.7
130.5 128.5136.7
145.5152.3 156.5 152.7
161.3170.3
177.2182.2
020406080
100120140160180200
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MMT
Argentina and Brazil Soybean Harvested Area2000 – 2013
10.411.4
12.614.0 14.4 15.2
16.3 16.4 16.0
18.6 18.3 17.619.5
13.9
16.418.4
21.522.9 22.2
20.7 21.3 21.723.5 24.2 25.0
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Million Hectares
ArgentinaBrazil
Soybean Imports by China and Rest of World1995/96 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
MMT
China Rest of World
China’s Soymeal Consumption1971/72 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
MMT
China’s Soybean Imports2000/01 – 2012/13 and Trend to 2022/23
Trend Suggests China May Be Importing 45 MMT More Soybeans by 2022/23
China’s Annual Pork Production2000 -2012
Production Up by 33 Percent
39.66 40.52 41.23 42.39 43.4145.55 46.51
42.8846.21
48.9151.07
49.5052.75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MM
T
China’s Annual Broiler Meat Production2000 -2013
Production Up by 52 Percent
9.27 9.28 9.56 9.90 10.00 10.20 10.35
11.2911.84 12.10
12.5513.20
13.73 14.10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MM
T
India’s Soymeal Exports and Consumption2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13India Soon Will Consume More Soymeal Than It Exports
2.362.57
1.51
3.68
2.24
4.27 4.14
5.29
3.81
3.12
4.80
4.394.25
1.12 1.15 1.19
0.70
1.37 1.351.02
1.45
1.98
2.572.90
3.33
3.70
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MMT
Exports Consumption
India’s Soymeal Consumption2006/07 – 2012/13 and Trend to 2022/23Trend Suggests India Will Consume Over 8 MMT/Year in a Decade
Soymeal Consumption by Middle East and North Africa2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast fro 2012/13
3.43.2
3.7
4.5
4.0
4.34.6
5.0
5.65.7 5.7
5.55.7
2.2
2.62.3
2.5 2.42.6
3.12.8
3.2
3.74.0
4.34.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13
MM
T
Middle East North Africa
Latin America’s Consumption of Soymeal2002/03 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
Brazil Is Main Consumer in South America
4.16 3.87 4.21 4.75 4.87 4.30 4.22 4.10 4.33 4.33 4.37
0.67 0.75 0.790.85 0.96
0.95 0.89 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.970.85 0.89 0.860.89 0.98
0.99 0.92 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.10
11.34 11.6113.10
14.2015.96 17.71 17.31
18.4619.55 20.44 21.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13
MM
T
Mexico Caribbean Central America South America
EU Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13
17.618.7
16.9
14.7 14.5 13.915.3 15.1
13.2 12.7 12.5 11.8 11.3
17.7
20.0 20.522.0 21.9
22.8 22.2
24.1
21.0 20.721.7
20.821.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MMT
Soybeans Soymeal
Japan’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s Imports of Soybeans2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13
4.775.02 5.09
4.69
4.30
3.964.09 4.01
3.40 3.40
2.922.76 2.75
1.39 1.43 1.521.37
1.24 1.19 1.23 1.23 1.17 1.20 1.24 1.14 1.15
2.332.58
2.352.22 2.26
2.50 2.442.15 2.22
2.47 2.452.29 2.30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13
MMT
Japan South Korea Taiwan
Southeast Asia’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal2000/01 –2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
3.4434.084 3.863
3.3623.7
3.2243.545 3.585 3.671
4.223
5.646 5.742 5.8755.123
5.99
6.7646.059
6.966
8.279
9.464 9.2319.558
10.29110.922
11.441 11.393
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MMT
Soybeans Soymeal
Global Soybean Consumption2000/01 – 2012/13 and Trend to 2022/23
If Trend Continues Worlds Need 70 MMT Additional Soybeans in a DecadeThat’s More Than Brazil Produced in 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
MM
T
Global Corn Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
591 601 603627
716700
714
794 801821 832
884
852
608622 627
649
688706
725
772 783
817
851864 874
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
MM
T
Production Consumption
U.S. Average Corn Yields1984 – 2011 and USDA Estimate for 2012
Major Droughts in 1988 and 2012
6.7
7.4 7.5 7.5
5.3
7.3 7.4
6.8
8.3
6.3
8.7
7.1
8.0 8.08.4 8.4 8.6 8.7
8.1
8.9
10.1
9.3 9.4 9.59.7
10.3
9.69.2
7.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1995 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
MT/
Hec
tare
U.S. Corn Supply and DemandUSDA Estimates for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13
MMT
Attribute 2010/11 2011/12 USDA 2012/13
Begin Stocks 43.39 28.65 25.10Production 316.17 313.91 273.83Imports 0.71 0.64 2.54Total Supply 360.24 343.20 300.09Feed/Residual 121.75 115.50 113.04Food & Seed 35.74 36.22 34.72Ethanol 127.54 128.12 114.31Exports 46.61 39.19 24.13Total Use 331.62 318.20 286.20End Stocks 28.65 25.10 15.29
U.S. Corn Exports and Use for Ethanol Production2009/10 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
116.6127.5 127.3
114.3
50.3 46.639.2
24.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MM
T
Ethanol Exports
Global Consumption of Corn for Feed and for Food, Seed & Industrial Uses2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13
Feed Up 95 MMT, FS&I Up 176 MMT
427 436 433446
476 479 479498
482 490501 507
522
181 185 193 203 212227
246
274
301327
349 357 352
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
MM
T
Feed Food, Seed & Industrial
World’s Largest Corn Producers2012/13 Marketing Year
1314
202121
2855
70208
273
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
CanadaSouth Africa
IndiaUkraineMexico
ArgentinaEU-27BrazilChina
United States
MMT
World’s Largest Corn Importers2012/13 Marketing Year
2.0
2.1
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.5
4.3
5.5
8.0
8.0
9.0
15.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
ChinaSaudi Arabia
AlgeriaMalaysiaColombia
IranTaiwan
EgyptEU-27
Korea, SouthMexicoJapan
MMT
U.S. Corn Stocks on September 302001 – 2011 and USDA Forecast for 2011 and 2012
48.2
40.6
27.624.3
53.7
50.0
33.1
41.3 42.5 43.4
28.6
25.1
15.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
MM
T
Global Corn Stocks to Use Ratio2001 – 2012 and USDA Forecast for 2013
29.6%
25.2%
21.1%
16.8%18.4% 17.8%
15.4%16.6%
18.5% 17.6%
15.0% 15.3%13.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Early Outlook for U.S. Corn and Soybean Plantings in 2013
Because corn appears to have been impacted more by 2012 drought than soybeans it is likely economics will favor corn plantings over soybeans in 2013.
However, a major limiting factor to corn plantings in 2013 will be an inadequate planting seed supply as the drought sharply reduced output of seed corn in 2012.
Many farmers also saw much lower yields from corn planted after corn in 2012 and may choose to reduce corn plantings in favor of soybeans to improve rotations.
General expectation of analysts is for both corn and soybean plantings to increase by about 2 million acres in 2013 as a result of lower cotton plantings and increased double-crop soybean plantings.
Much will depend on crop insurance price guarantees to be set in February.
U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Area2001 -2012
Ratio of Average U.S. Corn Yield to Average U.S. Soybean Yield2000 – 2012
Corn Yields Are Not Growing Faster Than Soybean Yields
3.603.49 3.40
4.19
3.80
3.43 3.483.61
3.883.74
3.51 3.51
3.12
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Aver
age
Cor
n Yi
eld
Div
ided
By
Aver
age
Soyb
ean
Yiel
d
