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7/28/2019 2013-04-02 Minnesota Legislature Zindler 1
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 2/ / / /
North America(39)
South America
(5)
Europe
(88)
Asia Pacific
(24)
Africa
(29)
San Francisco
Sao Paulo
Washington
New York
Cape Town Sydney
London Beijing
New Delhi
Hong Kong
BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE:200 STAFF IN 13 OFFICES WORLDWIDE
Tokyo
Singapore
Zurich
Objective: Be the definitive source of insight, data and news on the transformationof the energy sector.
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 3/ / / /
Clean energy investment overview
Global solar trends
US solar trends
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 4/ / / /
$54bn
$80bn
$114bn
$164bn
$191bn $187bn
$251bn
$302bn
$269bn
48%
43%
45%
16%
-2%
34%
20% -11%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY200412 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted
for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 5/ / / /
84%77% 74% 73%
68% 66% 68% 67%
57%
14%17% 20% 22%
25% 27% 26% 27%
35%
3%7% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ROW
BASIC
OECD
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY TRADE BLOCK200412 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: Excludes corporate and government R&D
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 6/ / / /
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR IN 2012AND % CHANGE ON 2011 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: Excludes corporate and government R&D
0.06
0.19
1.58
2.81
3.24
7.35
9.03
76.56
137.68
84%
52%
-41%
-50%
-33%
18%
-28%
-13%
-9%
Other
Marine
Geothermal
Biofuels
Energy smart technologies
Small hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar
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7/36MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 7/ / / /
Clean energy investment overview
Global solar market trends
US solar market trends
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DYNAMICS OF THE GLOBAL SOLAR SECTOR
Massive supply-demand imbalance with far more capacity available thancurrently being demanded.
Plummeting equipment prices due to technology advancements and thesupply-demand imbalance.
Major demand coming from the EU in recent years with strong growth in
Japan (post-Fukushima) and China. Commoditization of solar equipment with China now playing a dominant role
in manufacturing.
Consolidation, bankruptcies, and value destruction well underway.
Trade skirmishes!
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DEMAND VS. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED MODULEPRODUCTION (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: Supply scenarios based on continued 2012 utilisation rates.
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Supply - crystalline silicon Supply - thin-film silicon
Supply - thin film non-silicon Demand - conservative
Demand - optimistic
Historical Future
Current cell manufacturing capacity
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 10/ / / /
PV INSTALLATION BY YEAR, HISTORICAL AND CENTRALFORECAST, 2007-2015 (MW)
Source: Grid operators, incentive programme
administrators, industry associations, Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
Note: Few countries have yet finalised their 2012 data, hence the spread here. Table
with all major countries in Appendix. The conservative forecast is the sum of the first
quartiles of the spread between conservative and optimistic for each country.
2.8GW6.6GW 7.7GW
18.2GW
28.7GW 30.2GW
36.7GW
45.6GW
52.1GW
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan USA
China India Rest of World
Historical Forecast
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 11/ / / /
INSTALLED PV PER CAPITA, END OF 2012, CONSERVATIVESCENARIO (W/PERSON)
Source: World Bank, Bloomberg New Energy FinanceNote: GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power, in 2011 $
Germany
Italy
BelgiumCzech Republic
GreeceAustraliaSpain
Bulgaria
France
JapanIsrael
UK DenmarkPortugal
CanadaUSASouth Korea
Netherlands
China
RomaniaIndia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
GDP per capita
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 12/ / / /
ANNUAL COSTS OF TARIFFS AS SHARE OF GDP VS PV ELECTRICITYPRODUCTION AS SHARE OF CONSUMPTION, END OF 2011
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat, Canadian Statistics
Germany
Czech Republic Italy
Spain
France
Greece
Ontario
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%0.45%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Annual costs as share of GDP
Share of PV electricity production of overall electricity consumption
Bubble size representing 5GW cumulative PV capacity at end of 2011
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CRYSTALLINE SILICON MODULE SPOT PRICE, 200812($/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar Spot Price
Index
Note: Prior to 11 July 2011 the index collated module prices without differentiating
between mono and multi crystalline
-75%Four years
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 14/ / / /
SPOT PRICE OF C-SI MODULES, 2 JANUARY 2012 4MARCH 2013 ($/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Module Spot Index
Note: Dates represent first day of the week for which the price has been averaged, ie 8 August
represents quote for the week 8-14 August. Data available here.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0
2Jan
1
6Jan
3
0Jan
1
3Feb
2
7Feb
1
2Mar
2
6Mar
0
9Apr
2
3Apr
07May
21May
0
4Jun
1
8Jun
02Jul
16Jul
30Jul
13Aug
27Aug
10Sep
24Sep
0
8Oct
2
2Oct
05Nov
19Nov
03Dec
17Dec
31Dec
1
4Jan
2
8Jan
1
1Feb
2
5Feb
2012 2013
Multicrystalline silicon module (c-Si) Monocrystalline silicon module (c-Si)
http://bnef.com/SolarIndexes/spotAnalyticshttp://bnef.com/SolarIndexes/spotAnalytics7/28/2019 2013-04-02 Minnesota Legislature Zindler 1
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CHINESE MULTICRYSTALLINE SILICON MODULE PRICEBUILD-UP, MARCH 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Assumes 5.6g of silicon per watt of wafer. Processing cost based on SEC filings of
quoted companies, publically available reports, various discussions and analyst estimates.
SG&A represents sales, general, administration and R&D.
0.0
9
0.14
0.13
0.25
0.005
0.010
0.050
0.094
0.03
0.06
0.03
$16.6/kg
$0.91/piece
$0.40/W
$0.68/W
Polysilicon
Ingot &Wafer
Cell
Module
Processing cost per W SG&A per W
Depreciation per W Best-in-class margin per W
Spot price
-0.03
-0.08
0.003
-0.04
-0.07
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 16/ / / /
FORECAST COSTS FOR GROUND MOUNTED PVPROJECTS, 2010-2020 (2012 $/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Based on experience curves for each component. Methodology here
http://bnef.com/Insight/1954though charts updated January 2013
1.85
1.35
0.73 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.65 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.52
0.30
0.21
0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08
0.50
0.50
0.27 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22
0.41
0.41
0.32 0.31 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.26
0.18
0.18
0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12
3.24
2.65
1.59 1.55 1.52 1.47 1.40 1.34 1.28 1.23 1.19
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Module Inverter Balance of plant EPC Other
http://bnef.com/Insight/1954http://bnef.com/Insight/1954http://bnef.com/Insight/19547/28/2019 2013-04-02 Minnesota Legislature Zindler 1
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 17/ / / /
FORECAST COSTS FOR RESIDENTIAL PV PROJECTS,2010-2020 (2012 $/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Based on experience curves for each component. Methodology here
http://bnef.com/Insight/1954though charts updated January 2013
2.41
1.76
0.91 0.87 0.84 0.79 0.720.66 0.61 0.57 0.54
0.41
0.28
0.26 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17
0.67
0.68
0.65 0.63 0.61 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.53
0.64
0.63
0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.49
0.52
0.81
0.520.43
0.36 0.31 0.26 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.16
4.64
4.16
2.952.75 2.59
2.442.28
2.15 2.04 1.95 1.88
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Module Inverter BOP EPC Other
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SMALL PV SYSTEM COST IN JAPAN, GERMANY ANDCALIFORNIA, $/W
Source: BSW-Solar, California Solar Initiative filings, JPEA,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Average sub-10kW German system cost Average California residential system cost
Japanese residential system cost average Chinese multicrystalline silicon module price
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GLOBAL CRYSTALLINE SILICON CELL MANUFACTURINGCAPACITY (MW/YEAR)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2,1935,036 7,300
16,944
36,253
42,303
438952
1,6322,057
4,205
7,147
7,747
3636
116466
856
1,476
1,666
1,2922,095
3,290
4,936
6,953
8,294
9,344
2.4GW
5.3GW
10.1GW
14.8GW
29GW
53.2GW
61.1GW
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China Taiwan Korea Rest of world
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PV MODULE PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY, 2010-12 (%, GW)
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates and enquiries
Note: Geography calculated by company headquarters, not
manufacturing capacity location
54.7%
64.3%71.1%
12.9%
11.2%
10.9%12.7%
9.1%
7.4%12.0%9.4%
6.3%2.7%2.4%
2.6%
1.3%2.1% 0.7% 0.1%1.4% 0.6% 0.3%1.3% 1.0% 1.2%
18.1 29.7 30.1
2010 2011 2012
Taiwan
Spain
India
United Kingdom
South Korea
Norway
Germany
Japan
USA
China
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 21/ / / /
c-Si CELL PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY, 2010-12 (%, GW)
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates and enquiries
Note: Geography calculated by company headquarters, not
manufacturing capacity location
54.3% 57.8%
67.8%
18.1%
17.9%
15.3%10.8% 7.5%
2.6%9.5% 8.6%
7.6%
4.3% 3.2%4.0%
2.4% 3.0%2.7%
1.7%0.4%0.4%0.3%
20.7 23.0 27.4
2010 2011 2012
India
South Korea
Norway
USA
Japan
Germany
Taiwan
China
POLYSILICON PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY 2010 12 (%
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 22/ / / /
POLYSILICON PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY, 2010-12 (%,TONNES)
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates and enquiries
Note: Geography calculated by company headquarters, not
manufacturing capacity location
29.9%
20.9% 21.0%
28.3%
32.0%25.0%
20.2%
15.4%
18.5%
11.0%
18.6%19.5%
7.4%8.9%
9.2%
1.3% 1.4% 4.9%1.3% 1.9% 2.0%0.5%
0.6%0.3%154000 215000 205000
2010 2011 2012
Taiwan
UK
JapanOther
Norway
South Korea
Germany
China
USA
INVERTER PRODUCTION BY GEOGRAPHY 2010 12 (% GW
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 23/ / / /
INVERTER PRODUCTION BY GEOGRAPHY, 2010-12 (%, GWAC)
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance estimates and enquiries
Note: here DC-DC optimiser production has been converted into AC, which is est imated to be 85% of
DC, Geography calculated by company headquarters, not manufacturing capacity location
47.2%43.4%
21.4%21.5%
17.6%
13.7%
10.0%17.0%
3.7% 4.3%
23.0 25.6
2011 2012
Rest of the worldChina
Other Europe
USA
Germany
Q4 2012 LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY FOR SELECT
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 24/ / / /
Q4 2012 LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY FOR SELECTTECHNOLOGIES
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Natural gas CCGT w/CHP
Coal fired
Natural gas CCGT
Nuclear
Small hydro
Large hydro
Geothermal - f lash plant
Municipal solid waste
Landfill gas
Wind - onshore
Biomass - incineration
Geothermal - binary plant
PV - thin film
Biomass - gasification
PV - c-Si tracking
Biomass - anaerobic digestion
PV - c-Si
CSP - tower & heliostat w/storage
Fuel cells
CSP - parabolic trough
Wind - of fshore
CSP - parabolic trough + storage
CSP - tower & heliostat
LCOE Range Current Mid
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 25/ / / /
Clean energy investment overview
Global solar market trends
US solar market trends
TOTAL NEW US INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004 12
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 26/ / / /
TOTAL NEW US INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY, 2004-12($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
10.6
17.1
32.1
43.3 43.0
32.8
43.5
65.4
44.2
0
10
2030
40
50
60
70
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Shows total clean investment in the US across all asset classes (asset finance, public markets,
venture capital/private equity), as well as corporate and government R&D and small distributed capacity.
Values include estimates for undisclosed deals and are adjusted to account for re-invested equity.
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 27/ / / /
US CUMULATIVE RENEWABLE CAPACITY (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, EIA
25.335.6 40.1
46.659.8
1.6
2.02.9
4.9
8.0
13.9
14.3 14.4
14.5
14.7
2.82.9
2.93.0
3.1
43.5
54.860.4
68.9
85.7
10
20
30
4050
60
70
8090
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Geothermal
Biomass & waste
Solar
Wind
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 28/ / / /
US ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE, 2007-12 (%)
Source: Bloomberg New
Energy Finance, EIA
Note: Contribution from Other is minimal and consists of miscellaneous technologies including hydrogen
and waste. Values for 2012 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from
EIA (actual data available through October 2012).
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Other
Renewables(including hydro)
Natural gas
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 29/ / / /
PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION VS. GDP, 1990-2012
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, US EIA
Note: Values for 2012 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly
values from EIA (actual data available through September 2012). GDP is real and changed;
2012 value is based on economic forecasts from Bloomberg Terminal.
Quadrillion Btu GDP ($bn)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1214
0
15
30
45
60
75
90105
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Other
Hydro
Natural gas
Nuclear
Petroleum
Coal
GDP
SHALE GAS EXTRACTION BREAK EVEN PRICE BY US
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 30/ / / /
SHALE GAS EXTRACTION BREAK-EVEN PRICE, BY USPLAY ($/MMBTU)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Various
Note: Assumes 15% equity IRR. UK assumes $8m Drilling & Completion cost; 2000-4250 mcfd
dry production (per Marcellus and Eagle Ford); 20% royalty rate; usual tax treatment
1 April 2013Henry Hub
$4.03/MMBTU
AVERAGE WIND PPA PRICE RELATIVE TO WHOLESALE
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 31/ / / /
AVERAGE WIND PPA PRICE RELATIVE TO WHOLESALEREGIONAL PRICES, 2004SEPT 2012 ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC
Note: Price indices are calculated by averaging the hourly price at ISO hubs throughout
a 24-hour day. Quarterly rolling averages are used to eliminate outliers. Small sample
size accounts for some variation in PPA prices in 2011 and 2012.
0
10
20
3040
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PJM West ERCOT West MISO (Illinois Hub)
Southwest Power Pool California PPA price (signing date)
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 32/ / / /
MIDWEST RPS SUPPLY-DEMAND (TWH)
Source: Bloomberg
New Energy Finance
Notes: Demand is split into regions in the Midwest with binding RPS programmes (Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri) and
regions with non-binding programmes (North and South Dakota, Oklahoma). Supply is based purely on wind
capacity in these states, comprised of capacity commissioned (or having secured financing) as of July 2012.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Non-bindingprogrammes
Bindingprogrammes
Wind generation inregion (commissionedor financed)
AVERAGE PURCHASING PRICE BY OFFTAKER ALL
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 33/ / / /
AVERAGE PURCHASING PRICE BY OFFTAKER, ALLPROJECTS 2011H1 2012 ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New
Energy Finance, FERC
Note: Includes wind, biomass and geothermal PPAs. Does not include solar PPAs.
Only includes offtakers purchasing energy from two or more projects
26
353535
383839414243444647
51525454555757
616466
727376
76100
107
23
3032
34
37
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 25 50 75 100 125
MISOSouthwestern Pub Servic e Co
SPPNYISO
PJMPublic Service Co of Oklahoma
Minnesota PowerBasin Elec tric Power Coop
NEPOOLOklahoma Gas and Electric
Great River EnergyAmerican Electric Power
North ern States PowerNorth Western Energy
Public Servi ce Coof ColoradoS.California Pub Power Authority
Nebraska Public Power DistrictExelon
San Diego Gas & ElectricBonneville Power Admin
Idaho Power CompanyOmaha Public Power District
PacifiCorpFirst Energy Solutions Corp
Associated Electric CoopCA Dept of Water Resources
Tenn essee Valley AuthorityAppalachian Power
Arizona Public ServiceNV Energy
Pacific Gas & Electric
Snohomish County PUDSouthern Cal ifornia Edison
New England Power
Merchant rates PPAs Reporting projects
SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H2 2008 2011
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MINNESOTA STATE LEGISLATURE, 2 APRIL 2013 34/ / / /
SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE, H2 20082011($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, FERC
Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. Banded PPA prices are pegged at the average price over
the period of project operation. The California RFP resulted in 7.5TWh of shortlisted generation, of
which about half was PV. California RFP price estimates are sourced from developers. Topaz PPA
price estimate based on first-year total PPA revenues ($198.8m).
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12
AZ
CACO
NM
NV
NY
PR
250MW
50MW
First SolarAgua Caliente
SempraMesquite Solar I
Eurus Energy Avenal Park,Sand Drag, & Sun City Plants
NextEra Hatch
Iberdrola San Luis Valley
CogentrixAlamosa
SempraCopper Mountain Fotowatio
Apex
Solar ReserveCrescent Dunes
First Solar SilverState North
AESIlumina
BP Long Island
FotowatioSpectrum
Estimated2011 CA RFPshortlist (2016 delivery $7090)
NRGRoadrunner
11 solar PPAsexecutedvia CA RAM
EnelStillwater
First SolarTopaz
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COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be
photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any
way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are
reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be
construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment ofthe author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New
Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions
presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising
from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of
financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy orwhether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
THANKS!
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