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Kim van OorschotAssociate Professor Project Management & System Dynamics
BI Norwegian Business School
Plan for creativity
Two methods – Mutually exclusive
• Stick to the plan, follow the rules, use the standards
• Stability, reliability
• Be spontaneous, think outside the box, improvise
• Change, innovation
Planning in traffic
What do we do in traffic?
More cars on the road, more roads crossing each other
More danger, more risk of accidents
More rules, more signs, more signals, more traffic lights, more lanes
Less accidents? Or different kind of accidents?
Unintended consequences
• We stop thinking, and trust the rules
• We start reading the signs, and do what the signs tell us to do
• This is fine, as long as the signs are clear
• Otherwise:
Mixed Signals & Missed Signals
• On April 21, 2012, two trains bumped into each other in Amsterdam, because the driver of one of the trains missed a red signal. One person was killed, over 100 people were injured
• ”This error is a logical consequence of the way in which signs are placed. There is no unity in this,” say colleagues of the unfortunate driver
Multitude of tracks and signals leads to confusion among drivers (Volkskrant 28-04-2012)
An example case: Airbus A380Management of an aircraft development project
joint work with Henk AkkermansProfessor Supply Network DynamicsTilburg University, The Netherlands
Introduction: Late Arrivals
• Many if not all new aircraft development programmes are much delayed
• Obviously, complex technology & volatile markets play a role
• But in aerospace, we know that most major incidents are caused by human error
• So, couldn’t these delays be caused by managerial error, rather than by technology?
The Case for Human Error
• Managers in aerospace NPD (New Product Development) work in highly complex settings
• People in highly complex settings frequently make mistakes
• To prevent mistakes, they become more risk-aversive, preferring structures and simple solutions, that have worked in the past, with immediate benefits
The managerial response:Intense planning & Stage gates
• In NPD, decision-making has been professionalized, leading to formal planning methods, such as Stage gates (Cooper 2008)
• Stage gates don’t work in dynamically complex settings (Van Oorschot et al. AMJ 2013, Van Oorschot et al. JPIM 2010, Cooper 2008)
• Stage gates ignore the unk-unk’s, the unknown unknowns that characterize the early stage of every NPD project (Sommer & Loch 2004)
Basic Design Detailed Design Tooling Proto Production
stage gate
“First time right”“Nothing leaves the basic design phase before it is
100% correct”
A Clash of Ideas
Sequential Design, structured Stage-Gate approach
Concurrent Design, less structure, overlapping of phases
Basic Design Detailed Design Tooling Proto Production
Basic Design
Detailed Design
Tooling
Proto Production
early start of next phase based on preliminary
information from previous phase
Risk of iterationsFaster learning
feedback from detailed design to basic design
feedback from tooling to detailed design
feedback from proto to tooling
Decision Trap
EFFECTProject Duration
short long
CAUSEConcurrent
Engineering (overlapping
phases)
no
short duration caused by first
time right (no or few iterations)
long duration caused by slow
learning
yes
short duration caused by fast
learning
long duration caused by
endless iterations
Perceived relationship
Most likely relationship
Conclusions from this research
• In complex aircraft NPD, managers are tempted to ”look tough” and go for strict rules, structures, and gates to prevent mistakes
• This decreases feedback from downstream to upstream phases and leads to less communication and learning
• This may be seen as a managerial decision trap, since another managerial decision (less strict gates, more overlap) would have had a more positive impact on overall performance
Without rules
Without rules?
• If you look closely, there are traffic “rules” in India– Use horn– Eye contact– Give and take– Drive slowly, but keep moving
• Communication• Learning• Iteration• Progress
These rules do not limit our ability to think.Instead, they enable us to see through the complexity
Template of flexible process(Lenfle & Loch, 2010)
Communication, learning, iteration, progress
Plan for creativity
Two methods – Mutually enabling(Farjoun, 2010)
Stability enables change
Routines help manage the non-routine
Control enables design and invention
Change enables stability
Moderate experimentation mitigates drastic mistakes
Doubt and mindfulness foster security
Go your own road – Erik Johansson
Thank you for your attention!