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Global Agricultural Productivity By Region - East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and Caribbean
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20102015
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Food Demand Index
Agricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
ProjectedAgricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
74%of total demand can be met by maintaining the current TFP growth rate.
If TFP growth rate is maintained, a significant gap would need to be met through imports.
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
Rising incomes, not population growth, will be the primary driver of increasing food demand in East Asia. Food demand is estimated to grow at 3.65 percent each year between 2000 and 2030, outpacing the region’s TFP growth of 3.05 percent of the past decade.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report® and download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/index.php/2012-gap-report.
Regional Findings: East Asia
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PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND2000 - 2030
EAST ASIA
INCOME POPULATION
SOUTH &SOUTHEAST
ASIA
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
20002005
20102015
20202025
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Food Demand Index
Agricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
ProjectedAgricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
82%of total demand can be met by maintaining the current TFP growth rate.
If TFP growth rate is maintained,
a significant gap would need to be met through imports.
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
Rising incomes, not population growth, will be the primary driver of increasing food demand in South and Southeast Asia. Food demand is estimated to grow annually by 2.75 percent, outpacing the region’s TFP growth of 2.48 percent of the past decade.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report® and download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/index.php/2012-gap-report.
Regional Findings: South and Southeast Asia
50%
0%
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150%
200%
PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND2000 - 2030
EAST ASIA
INCOME POPULATION
SOUTH &SOUTHEAST
ASIA
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
Food demand in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to grow at a rate of 2.14 percent by 2050, outpacing the region’s TFP growth of 1.9 percent of the past decade.
Almost half of food in the MENA region is imported and water scarcity is increasing. A growing food gap will need to be met through productivity increases, imports, and government safety net food assistance programs.
Increasing agricultural productivity in the MENA region will rely on improved irrigation technologies, such as micro-irrigation. Pioneered by 2012 World Food Prize Laureate Dr. Daniel Hillel, micro-irrigation is a revolutionary system that dramatically reduces the amount of water needed to nourish crops, maintain crop health, and increase yields.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
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Food Demand Index
Agricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
ProjectedAgricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
If TFP growth rate is maintained,If TFP growth rate is maintained,
2000
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2030
a significant gap would need to be met through imports and safety net programs.
83%of total demand can be met by maintaining the current TFP growth rate.
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
Regional Findings: Middle East and North Africa
View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report® and download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/index.php/2012-gap-report.
Sub-Saharan African food demand is projected to rise by 2.83 percent per year from 2000 to 2030, primarily due to population growth, the most rapid of any region in the world. With TFP growth rates of 0.5 percent on average, a significant food demand gap will become much greater unless Sub-Saharan Africa accelerates productivity growth, sustainably expands land, or intensifies production.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
Regional Findings: Sub-Saharan Africa
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Food Demand Index
Agricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
ProjectedAgricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
13%
If TFP growth rate is maintained,
a significant gap would need to be met through productivity improvements, selective expansion, intensification, and imports.
of total demand would be met by maintaining the current TFP growth rate.
Only
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report® and download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/index.php/2012-gap-report.
40%
0%
80%
120%
160%
PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND2000 - 2030
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
INCOME POPULATION
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
The estimated growth in food demand for the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region is 1.8 percent per year from 2000 to 2030. TFP growth from the last decade is 2.74 percent. If that rate is maintained or accelerated, this region may expand exports, increase biofuels production, or withdraw some land from production for conservation or carbon-credit strategies.
Policies that encourage productivity, while sustainably managing water, land, and forest cover, can provide an environment conducive to future food exports.
In order for the LAC region to realize its productivity and export trade potential, governments must commit to improvements in infrastructure.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
Regional Findings: Latin America and Caribbean
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2015
2020
2025
2030
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Food Demand Index
Agricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
ProjectedAgricultural Outputfrom TFP Growth
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
If TFP growth rate is maintained,
and the region will likely become a larger exporter.
Food demand will be met and exceeded,
View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report® and download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/index.php/2012-gap-report.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/
Source: Global agricultural TFP growth is from Fuglie, 2012. The required rate of TFP growth to double agricultural supply using existing resources is estimated by GHI.
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20501.75
Required Rate of TFP Growth
Actual TFP
Total Factor Productivity must continue to increase to feed 9 billion by 2050.
1.84
CurrentRate of TFPGrowth
RequiredRate of TFP
Growththrough 2050
on target,investment and commitment
but we should recognize the
needed to stay on track.
The global level is
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