2012 AP US Govt. Voting Behavior2012 AP US Govt. Voting BehaviorNovember 8, 2012November 8, 2012

Objective: Understand and Analyze factors that effect voting behavior!!

AP REVIEW QUESTION: Identify two characteristics of a valid, scientific, public

opinion poll.

I. Geography-page 303www.270towin.com

1. Solid South: traditionally… Increasingly2. Great Plains: 3. Rocky Mountains: 4. New England: Increasingly 5. Great Lakes: Democratic trend, Swing States

1. As Ohio goes, so goes the election Since 1964

• Republicans=“L”: Rocky Mts.-South– 1964: Civil Rights Act (gain the South, lost minority vote)

• Far West: Democratic trend

III. Political Party ID: Psychological attachment to a party

1. Strongest predictor of voting behavior (not political socialization)

2. The new trend, “vote the man, not the party”1. Party Dealignment (2008 Possibly)

3. Straight ticket voting-Grandparents-Depression,

4. Split-ticket voting: increase 5. Independents (Undies): Why a rising #?

1. ~40%2. “Leaners”…3. Many=young, college educated, above average income

IV. Demographic Factors1. Gender: Males? Females?2. Race: White-? _______ most loyal

Democratic voters!3. Social Class: Lower vs. Upper4. Religion:

1. Protestant: more likely Republican2. Catholic: traditionally Democratic, but Bush=43%

of vote in 20043. Jewish: more likely Democratic

5. Education is the greatest characteristic predictor of voting? (Vote or NOT)

V. Issues1. “It’s the economy, stupid!” OR tax cuts, etc.

1. 3 ISSUES2012 Presidential Election?

2. Retrospective Voting vs. Prospective/Policy Voting?? How did people vote in 2012?

VI. Candidate Appeal

1. Character

2. Leadership

3. Charisma

Florida 2000 Humor

1. 1000 voters voted for all 10 presidential candidates

2. 3600 voted for all 10 candidates except Bush

3. 700 voted for all 10 candidates except Gore

4. 7000 voted for BOTH Bush and Gore

Analyzing voting behavior charts1. What are 2 things you can get from this chart regarding political involvement and influence?

Political Participation by Family Income

01020304050

V. Low Low Med. High V. High

Family Income Level

Perc

ent E

ngag

ing

in A

ctiv

ity

Tried to Influence Votes of Others Attended Political Meetings/Rallies

Gave Money to a Party or Candidate

…Last bit of Voting Behavior…You, the Millenials

• http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4126233n

Background on Background on Young VotersYoung Voters

The Millennial Generation is huge.

Young people are energized.

Young voter turnout is on the rise.

Young adults will vote when asked…

…and when mobilized, can make a huge impact on elections and the direction of our country.

The Millennial Generation is HugeThe Millennial Generation is HugeMillennial voters are more than one-fifth of the

electorate in 2008 - and growing.

The Millennial Generation is HugeThe Millennial Generation is HugeIn 2004, the number of 18-29 year old voters rivaled the over-65 vote.

The Millennial Generation is The Millennial Generation is DiverseDiverse

Millennials are far more diverse than older voters; for example, 81% of 65+ adults are white, whereas just 61% of 18-29 year olds are. (U.S. Census Bureau 2006)

……particularly to key issues.particularly to key issues.Most important issues for millenials?Most important issues for millenials?

Young Voter Turnout is on the Young Voter Turnout is on the RiseRise

First there was a big increase in 2004…

Young Voter Turnout is on the RiseYoung Voter Turnout is on the Rise

Then it happened again in 2006…

Young Voters are Trending Democratic…Young Voters are Trending Democratic…

• In 2000, 18-29 year olds split evenly, 48% for Al Gore and 46% for George W. Bush. • In 2002, 49% of 18-29 year olds voted for Democrats and 47% for Republicans. • In 2004, 54% of 18-29 year olds voted for John Kerry and 45% for George W. Bush.• In 2006, 60% of 18-29 year olds voted for Democrats and 38% for Republicans.

……although this hasn’t always been the case.although this hasn’t always been the case.

African Americans, Latinos, and young African Americans, Latinos, and young women identify heavily as Democrats.women identify heavily as Democrats.

Young married and white men and Young married and white men and religious youth lean Republicanreligious youth lean Republican

Bringing it all together

• Taking all you now know about your generation:

1. Draw 2 conclusions regarding millenials and voter turnout/voting behavior?

1. For exampleGiven that the main issues for millenials are jobs/economy and healthcare I believe that voter turnout among millenials will continue to increase.

2. Analyze 2 effects that millenials will have on US elections over the next decade?

1. For exampleAdvertising will have to be more technically savy due to the increase in millenial voters.