2009 Mid-year real estate market report for Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello

8/14/2019 2009 Mid-year real estate market report for Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello

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Fluvanna & Lake MonticelloReal Estate Market Analysis

Data compiled and presented by:

Information in this report is believed accurate, however, not guaranteed

86 Joshua LanePalmyra, VA 22963

434.589.5800StrongTeamRealtors.com

Mid-year 2009


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We would like to thank you for taking the time to consider our Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We sincerely hope that you will find the report both informative and valuable. There are a few thingsyou should know that will help you consider the data that we have shared. . .

The source of all of the statistical data in this report is the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORSMultiple Listing Service. All of the information in the the CAAR MLS is believed to be accurate, however,is not guaranteed. All of the data was compiled and analyzed personally by Strong Team REALTORS. Allof the opinions contained herein are those of Strong Team REALTORS, unless otherwise noted.

The presentation of the data in this report is licensed under a Creative Commons Copyright License.

This document may be shared, as long as it is passed along unchanged and in whole, with properattribution to Strong Team REALTORS.

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We encourage you to share this report with others who you think might find it valuable. If you have anyquestions about any of the information, or would like additional information, or additional copies of thereport, we are happy to help however we can. All you have to do is give us a call at 434-589-5800, orsend an email to [email protected].

Strong Team REALTORS
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/http://creativecommons.org/


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Introduction

Welcome to the latest edition of the Strong Team REALTORS Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Real Estate MarketAnalysis. We know that comprehensive, accurate data about the local real estate market is absolutely critical

in order for you to make informed decisions about your real estate needs. We also know, however, thatsuch information is often far too hard to come by. It is our goal to change that.

This is the latest edition of our quarterly reports. Each report contains the vital data about the local realestate market that you want, need, and deserve. As real estate professionals, we know first-hand thatmarket data leads to increased knowledge and better decision-making. After all, knowledge is power. Wewant to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary for them to make the best

decisions for them.

Everyone has a feeling about the real estate market, our goal is to provide facts and analysis that will showyou a true picture of the local real estate market.

Scope of this report

The data in this report looks back at the 1st half of 2009 (Jan.-Jun.) and compares it to the same timeperiod in 2008. Some of the graphs will refer to the entire Charlottesville Area (Albemarle, Charlottesville,Fluvanna, Greene, Nelson), others will show data for only Fluvanna County and/or Lake Monticello. This isdone so that you can compare the local market against itself, and also against the performance of theregion.



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Total Sales By Area

The chart on the following page is a representation of the total number of sales in the Charlottesville Areafor the 1st half of 2009. The sales are broken down by individual area, and also as a total.

As you can see, sales in every area are lower, compared to the same time frame in 2008. For the entireCharlottesville Area, sales volume is 25% lower in 2009, compared with 2008. By area, Nelson County hasseen the largest drop-off in sales (-38%), and Albemarle has seen the smallest change (-14%).Charlottesville, Fluvanna, and Greene Counties have seen a -33%, -34%, and -23% change, respectively.

The positive news is that all of the areas improved from the deficits that were suffered in the first 3 monthsof the year. As we noted in our previous analysis of the first quarter of 2009, it was one of the worst ever.

The fact that there was improvement over the last three months is a welcomed sign. While the area iscertainly not going to match or surpass the numbers of 2008, at least there were signs of improvement.



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0

120

240

360

480

600

720

840

960

1,080

1,200

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson Total

Total Sales by Area

2009 2008Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Total Sales in Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the total sales for Fluvanna vs. Lake Monticello during first have of 2009. In theprevious chart, both were included in the Fluvanna column. Since Lake Monticello is, by far, the largestsubdivision in Fluvanna and very unique compared to the rest of the county, it is worthwhile to examine it

individually, whenever possible.

Lake Monticello experienced a drop-off of 36% in total sales in 2009 compared to 2008. Homes outside ofLake Monticello experienced a 31% drop in sales volume. It is interesting to note that Lake Monticelloaccounted for 58% of Fluvanna Countys sales in 2009, and accounted for 54% of sales in the County in2008.


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0

11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

99

110

Fluvanna Co. ONLY Lake Monticello

Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Total Sales



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Charlottesville Area Sales by Month

The following chart breaks down the total area sales on a per-month basis. The chart compares themonthly-by-month totals from 2009 and 2008. This chart is important because it gives a picture of theentire year in such a way that we can see the fluctuations in sales from month-to-month.

The interesting piece of data in this chart is that sales were almost flat from March to April. Traditionally,March/April marks the beginning of the spring market. Sales quickly recovered from the slow start to theseason, however, showing a major jump from April to May. The gap in year-over-year sales closed from-27% in April to 13% in June. While the entire area has been hampered by the start to the year, it is goodto see that two lines are trending in the same fashion.

2008 showed a tremendous fall-off in sales from July to August. It will be very interesting to see if thesame thing happens in 2009. There has historically been a fall in sales in August, but it was especiallysignificant in 2008. We can only hope that it will be less so in 2009.


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0

38

75

113

150

188

225

263

300

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Charlottesville Area Sales by Month


Fl & L k M ti ll S l b M th


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Fluvanna & Lake Monticello Sales by Month

The following two charts show the same month-by-month breakdown of the sales total, but theinformation is limited to Fluvanna County (only) on the first chart, and to Lake Monticello (only) on thesecond chart.

In our 1st Quarter report we remarked that both Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello experiencedexceptionally good sales volumes in March. Everyone was hoping this trend would continue in the 2ndQuarter of the year. It did not.

In fact, while April did continue the positive trend, the tremendous deficits in May and June wiped out the

gains that had been made in the prior months. Rather than seeing the traditional peak in sales in June, salesfell off significantly in May, and recovered only slightly in June, but still did not surpass the numbers in Marchand April.

May sales volume was down 50% and 52% in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello, respectively. This is a significantdrop. While sales recovered slightly in June, volume remained down 40% in Fluvanna County and 55% inLake Monticello for the month. In looking at the chart, it is easy to see that 2009 did not produce the

typical selling season in Fluvanna or Lake Monticello.

There is no easy explanation for this. In examining the monthly sales volumes for the other areas (notpictured) all of the areas had a flat or slightly decreasing April and/or May. No area saw a drop assignificant as the one experienced in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello. While this data is alarming, ourexperience has been that sales seem to have picked up a bit in July, so it remains to be seen if that will bereflected in the overall numbers.



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0

8

17

25

33

42

50


Fluvanna Sales by Month



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0

000

000

000

000

000

000


Lake Monticello Sales by Month




Fluvanna Sales by Price Range

The following chart shows the total sales in Fluvanna County (only), broken down by price range. Thischart EXCLUDES homes in Lake Monticello. Those sales are on a separate, following, chart. The chart also

compares the price price range sales in 2009 and 2008.

This chart shows us that the trend of increasing sales in the lower price ranges remains. Very few homesabove $300,000 are selling in Fluvanna County. Conversely, sales in homes below $250,000 have increasedsignificantly.


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0-149,900

150,000-199,900

200,000-249,900

250,000-299,900

300,000-349,000

350,000-399,900

400,000-449,000

450,000-499,900

500,000-800,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Fluvanna ONLY Sales by Price Range



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Lake Monticello Sales by Price Range

The following chart shows the sales at Lake Monticello, broken down by price range. The numbers referONLY to homes in Lake Monticello. Once again, the ranges are compared for 2009 and 2008.

As with the Fluvanna numbers on the previous chart, sales are obviously trending toward the lower end ofthe price ranges. In fact, the only price range that is doing better than it was in 2008 is the $199,000 andlower price range. Our anecdotal experience was suggesting this to be the case, but the data certainlyvalidates that experience.



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0-149,900

150,000-199,000

200,000-249,900

250,000-299,900

300,000-349,000

350,000-399,900

400,000-449,000

450,000-499,900

500,000-800,000

0 7 13 20 27 33 40

Lake Monticello ONLY Sales by Price Range




Median Price by Area

The following chart shows the median home price, broken down by area. On this chart, 2009 is comparedto 2008, and we have added a column that shows the median price for Lake Monticello ONLY.

The median price is the price at which exactly half of the homes have sold for more, and half for less. Themedian price is a significant number because it is used to measure appreciation or depreciation. Thereason that the median is used, and not the average, is because if there were to be a few more sales ateither extreme of the price range, it would skew the average in that direction. The median is, therefore,considered a more accurate measure of overall value in the market.

In 2008, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $276,897.In 2009, the median home price in the Charlottesville Area at the midway point of the year was $251,694(-9%). Every area has experienced a drop in median price this year. The median price has actually fallenthroughout the beginning of the year. At the end of the 1st Quarter, the median price was only 4% lower,compared to 2008.

Lake Monticello experienced a 15% drop in median home price, which is slightly better than the 1st

Quarter. Fluvanna County as a whole (including Lake Monticello) has experienced a 20% drop in themedian price, which is slightly worse than the 1st Quarter.


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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Median Price by Area

2009 2008* This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Days on Market by Area

The following chart shows the average Days on Market (DOM), broken down by area. It compares theaverage DOM, through March 31, in 2009 and 2008. This chart also includes a column for Lake Monticelloonly.

DOM is a statistic that measures how many days a property is active in the MLS before it goes undercontract. The higher the number, the longer properties have remained on the market. Because of the waythe DOM statistic is calculated, there is always a possibility that the number does not actually reflect thetrue DOM for a property, but since it is the only measure we have, we rely upon it anyway. Typically, whenDOM isnt completely accurate, it is usually underestimating the true DOM of a property. So if the averageDOM for any area is inaccurate, you can safely assume that the number should be higher, not lower.

The DOM numbers were very mixed across the areas, but the Charlottesville Area as a whole saw theaverage DOM for Q1 drop 4 days compared to Q1 2008. This is definitely a positive sign, but we will haveto wait to see if the trend continues.

The difference between DOM in the area from 2008 to 2009 is not statistically significant. In fact, despite

differences both higher and lower in the different areas, all of them remain very close to the numbers seenin 2008. The lack of a major change in the DOM can be seen as a good thing, as any sign of stability in thecurrent market is a positive thing.

Of course, all of these numbers are averages. Some homes sell very quickly, in days or weeks, while othersremain on the market for months, or even a year or more. It is, however, a positive sign that homes arespending less time on the market. Hopefully, this trend will hold as we move through the year.


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0

.714

.429

.143

.857

.571

.286

.000

Albemarle Charlottesville Fluvanna Greene Nelson *Lake Mont. Total

Days on Market by Area

2009 2008*This column refers to Lake Monticello only. Fluvanna column includes Lake Monticello.Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS



Inventory for Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following two charts shows the total inventory of homes for sale in Fluvanna (including Lake

Monticello), and for Lake Monticello only, broken down by month. For the purpose of this report, theinventory was measured on the first day of each month. For example, as of January 1st of 2009, there were315 homes on the market in Fluvanna County. 143 of those were located in Lake Monticello.

The good news is that we are not seeing huge increases in inventory numbers. For Fluvanna County as awhole, we remain very close to the numbers experienced in 2008. While it would be ideal to be

experiencing lower numbers, given the fact that sales numbers in the County were so low in May and June,holding inventory is a small victory, overall.

Lake Monticello continues to see inventory far lower than in 2008. While inventory did increase in May andJune, this is due largely to the fact that sales numbers for those months were so low. The fact that themarket was able to weather that storm without big increases in inventory is a good thing.

We have included on the chart the 2008 numbers for the rest of the months in the year, just to give you anidea of what to expect going forward.


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240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400


Fluvanna Total Inventory by Month*

2009 2008

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200


Lake Monticello ONLY Inventory by Month*

2009 2008

*Inventory is counted on the 1st day of every monthStrong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS


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Sold vs. List Price Fluvanna & Lake Monticello

The following chart shows the relationship between the listing price and the sold price of properties inFluvanna and Lake Monticello. It compares this percentage in Q1 2009 and 2008. The Fluvanna column

includes all homes, while Lake Monticello refers only to homes in Lake Monticello.

This statistic is important because it represents the percentage of the list price that owners are receivingwhen their home is sold. The statistic uses the list price of the home on the day it goes under contract, andcompares that to the sold price on the contract. One thing to keep in mind is that in some transactions,there are closing costs credits, or other credits included in the contract price. These credits have the effect

of inflating the contract price, as the seller of the home does not actually keep the money. Therefore, thepercentage of sold vs. list price can sometimes be slightly inflated.

As of the midway point of the year, homeowners in Fluvanna and Lake Monticello were walking away with aslightly lower percentage of list price in 2009, compared to 2008. Each percentage point represents $1000per $100,000. So, if a $200,000 home sold for 96% of list price, the final contract price was $192,000.

As with many of the other statistics, these numbers represent an average across all homes sold. Meaningthat many homes are selling for at or near list price, while others are selling for well below the list price atthe time of contract. The statistic does show, however, what a seller and buyer can reasonably expect toreceive in a negotiation. Of course, each individual property presents a unique situation, so buyers andsellers should act accordingly.


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90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Fluvanna Lake Monticello ONLY

Sold Price vs. List Price (percentage)


Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats


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Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Stats

The following chart refers to only waterfront homes and condos sold at Lake Monticello through March 31in 2009 and 2008. Included in the stats are only those homes and condos that were on the main lake. Thechart shows the average price and the median price of waterfront homes sold.

2009 has not been kind to waterfront homeowners. As of right now, waterfront inventory is at an all-timehight. This is due to the fact that there were only 3 waterfront sales in the first 6 months of 2009. Medianand Average sales prices reflect the struggles of the waterfront market, both being down significantlycompared to 2008.

Demand for waterfront homes doesnt seem to be down, as we are showing many homes to potential

waterfront buyers. We already know there is no lack of supply for waterfront homes. So, it would appearthat the issue with the waterfront market is that buyers are not satisfied with either the price or conditionof the homes in the supply. Until that disconnect is corrected, it stands to reason that waterfront sales willcontinue to struggle.


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0

49,000

98,000

147,000

196,000

245,000

294,000

343,000

392,000

441,000

490,000

Median Price Average Price

Lake Monticello Waterfront Sales Statistics*

2009 2008

*Stats include homes and condos on the main lake. 3 sales in 2009, 8 sales in 2008Strong Team REALTORS Source: CAAR MLS

Conclusion


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Conclusion

The first two months of 2009 were two of the worst months we have ever seen. The numbers bear thatout. While everyone was hopeful that those months would be erased with a strong selling season, such aseason never emerged in the 2nd Quarter. Quite to the contrary, May and June were almost as bad as theJanuary and February numbers, relative to the same months in 2008. One might think that this fact,coupled with a falling median price, is cause to cry that the sky is falling. That would be an overreaction.

The fact is that market correction is a necessary thing. The only way that the market is going to experiencestability is for prices to find a level at which supply and demand meet. The market is oblivious to our desirefor prices to climb higher. Reality might be harsh in the short term, but this short term pain is necessaryfor long-term stability.

One sign of possible stability will be the numbers in the 3rd quarter. If those numbers show a bit of arecovery in sales, then it would indicate that we are reaching a more stable market. Right now, with theselling season behind us, we can only hope and watch for a relatively normal 3rd quarter. If that is the case,then we could also reasonably expect the traditional sales trends to return in 2010. Right now, it seems asif we may look back on 2009 and call it the bottom of the downturn.

The important thing to remember is that recovery doesnt mean wild appreciation. The best that can beexpected from a recovery is some measure of price and sales stability. That might be achievable in 2009.

Buyers and sellers should arm themselves with as much knowledge and information as possible, and makean effort not to ignore the market realities in favor of wishful thinking. Being grounded in reality and goodinformation provided the best opportunity for reaching your real estate goals.


Th k


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Thank you

We at Strong Team REALTORS would like to thank you for taking the time to read our Fluvanna & LakeMonticello Real Estate Market Analysis. We hope that you have found all of the statistics and analysis bothinformative and valuable. We encourage you to share this document with others who you think may find

it valuable. If you would like more copies of this document, or to automatically receive our future marketanalyses, please call us at 434-589-5800, or send an email to [email protected].

It is always one of our goals to empower our clients and customers with the knowledge necessary toachieve their real estate goals. We are always happy to help you with any questions you might have aboutreal estate, from statistics to staging advice, we are happy to share our knowledge and expertise whereverit is needed. Please dont hesitate to contact us with any additional questions or comments.

Strong Team REALTORS86 Joshua Lane

Palmyra, VA 22963434-589-5800

StrongTeamRealtors.com
http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/http://www.strongteamrealtors.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

2009 Mid-year real estate market report for Fluvanna County and Lake Monticello