2007. May 29. Dubrovnik, Croatia

Moving forward in the digital scientific world

the importance of scholarly information in the research process

Presenter: Béky Endre, Elsevier, International Markets, Eastern Europe

2007. May 29.Dubrovnik, Croatia

2

Introduction

Dissemination, by scientific publishers, of high quality scientific output across the globe is a crucial part of research

In recent years the move from paper to electronic content delivery has drastically changed researchers time-spending

Researchers are able to spend significantly less time on searching for relevant content and at the same time have access to a wider range of content

At the same time the increase of usage clearly positively affects the quantity and quality of scientific output

Comparing macro-economic and demographic data with the uptake of usage and scientific output enables decision-makers to analyze the productivity and efficiency of their investments

Elsevier has invested heavily in the increase of productivity and efficiency of researchers all over the world through the ScienceDirect platform, Scopus and many other highly specialized products

Introduction

3

Elsevier is the leading STM journal publisher in Poland with a 29% paper market share, 5% higher than the world average market share

Elsevier29%

Springer10%

Others50%

Wiley4%Polish

Academy of Sciences

4%

Taylor & Francis Informa

3%

Market Share of Articles published in Poland

Elsevier24%

Others54%

Springer8%

Blackwell6%Wiley

5%

American Chemical Society

3%

Market Share of Articles published in the World

Source: Thomson Scientific (ISI)

4

The Impact Factor of Elsevier is the highest of all commercial publishers, only Society’s are doing better

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

American Physical Society

American Chemical Society

AIP

Elsevier

Blackwell

Wiley

Springer

Taylor & Frances Informa

Polish Academy of Sciences

Polish Society VeterinarySciences

Introduction

2005 - Field Weighted Relative Impact in Poland

Source: Thomson Scientific (ISI)

5

The High Performance Research Engine compares to running a marathon

Assets/ Assets/ LaboratoriesLaboratories

Access to Access to ContentContent

Resources/ Resources/ ResearchersResearchers

High Performance

ResearchEngine

The training and Physical The training and Physical fitness of the athletefitness of the athlete

(Indicated by demographic data)

A good position A good position at the startat the start

(Research performance indicators)

The Quality of The Quality of your shoesyour shoes

(Elsevier provides high quality access)

Introduction

R&D and Macroeconomic comparison

7

The training and physical fitness of the athlete

Smiling after having finished first in the 2003 marathon of Berlin in a new world-record of 2 hours 4 minutes and 55 seconds

Paul TergatBorn: 17-06-1969Nat.: Kenyan


8

Croatia has a healthy economic growth potential, GDP/Capita is close to EU-member Poland

Country Croatia Serbia Poland Spain UK US

Population x Mio 4,5 10 39 40 61 298

Population Growth Rate -0.04 % - -0.05 % 0.13 % 0.28 % 0.91 %

GDP (PPP) x Mio $ 59,410 $ 44,830 $ 542,600 $ 1,070,000 $ 1,818,000 $ 12,310,000

GDP/Capita $ 13,200 $ 4,400 $ 14,100 $ 27,000 $ 30,100 $ 41,600

GDP Real Growth Rate 4.4 % 5.9 % 5.3 % 3.6 % 1.9 % 3.2 %

Inflation Rate (Consumer Prices)

3.4 % 15.5 % 1.3 % 3.5 % 2.1 % 3.2 %

Source: CIA World Book of Facts 2007


9

The Eastern European countries are facing a shrinking population, this trend must be reversed to ensure future economic growth

Country Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Romania Ukraine

Population x Mio 7 10 10 22 46

Population Growth Rate -0.8 % -0,1 % -0.25 % -0.12 % -0.7 %

GDP (PPP) x Mio $ 77,140 $ 221,400 $ 172,700 $ 197,300 $ 355,800

GDP/Capita $ 10,400 $ 21,600 $ 17,300 $ 8,800 $ 7,600

GDP Real Growth Rate 6.5 % 6.2 % 3.8 % 6.4 % 7.0 %

Inflation Rate (Consumer Prices)

6.5 % 2.7 % 6.8% 6.8 % 11.6 %

Source: CIA World Book of Facts 2007


10

Compared to the UK, Croatia spends 4 times less on R&D/Capita, R&D spend per researcher is 2x larger than Poland

Country Croatia Serbia Poland Spain UK US

Internet Users x Mio 1,5 1,4 11,4 19,2 37,6 207,2

R&D Spending x Mio

$ 654 $ 538 $ 3,256 $ 11,770 $ 34,360 $ 332,370

R&D Spending as % of GDP

1.1 % 1.2 % 0.6 % 1.1 % 1.9 % 2.7 %

R&D Spending per Capita

$ 145 $ 54 $ 83 $ 294 $ 563 $ 1,115

Researchers per Mio Inhabitants

1,296 … 1,581 2,195 2,706 4,605

# of Researchers x Thousands

5,832 … 62 88 165 1,372

R&D Spend per Researcher

$ 112,134 … $ 52,520 $ 134,054 $ 208,240 $ 242,250

Sour

ce: U

nesc

o, I

nter

netw

orld

stat

s.co

m


11

The Czech Republic has a spend on R&D/Capita comparable to Spain, However R&D spend per researcher is lagging

Country Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Romania Ukraine

Internet Users x Mio 2,2 5,1 3,0 4,9 5,3

R&D Spending x Mio

$ 386 $ 2,878 $ 1,554 $ 789 $ 4,270

R&D Spending as % of GDP

0.5 % 1.3 % 0.9 % 0.4 % 1.2 %

R&D Spending per Capita

$ 55 $ 288 $ 155 $ 36 $ 93

Researchers per Mio Inhabitants

1,263 1,594 1,472 976 …

# of Researchers x Thousands

8,841 15,940 15 21 …

R&D Spend per Researcher

$ 43,660 $ 18,056 $ 103,600 $ 37,570 …

Sour

ce: U

nesc

o, I

nter

netw

orld

stat

s.co

m


12

The per capita R&D spend is significantly below the UK figures

All values are against GDP(PPP)

Croatia, Serbia and Spain can significantly increase their performance in R&D by increasing their investment per Capita to the UK-GDP/Capita ratio

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Croatia Serbia Spain UK

2006 – R&D-spend/Capita

3.9 X 10.5 X 1.9 X

$

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Croatia Serbia Spain UK

2006 – GDP/Capita

2.3 X 6.8 X 1.1 X

$

comparing countries research performance

14

To win a marathon a good position at the start is crucial

Croatia

UKUS

Poland

Spain


15

International University rankings show a wide gap to the UK/US

0

1

24

54

1

9

40

168

0

0

2

3

050100150200

Czech republic

Hungary

Poland

Spain

UK

US

# of Universities in theTimes top 200

# of Universities in theShanghai Jiao TongUniversity top 500

0

1

55

1

43

167

29

0

0

9

2

2

0 50 100 150 200

Czech

Hungary

Poland

Spain

UK

US

Hungary

CzechRepublic

Poland

Spain

UK

US

2005 2006


Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine have no

listings in these rankings

16

Times top 200 and Shanghai top 500 ranking criteria

Times top 200 Shanghai top 500

weight measurement weight Measurement

40%Peer review by asking academics to name 30 top institutes in their field of interest

10% # of alumni wining Nobel Prizes and Field Medals

10% Opinion of international graduate recruiters 20% # of staff wining Nobel Prizes and Field

Medals

20% Staff-to-student ratio 20% # of highly cited researchers in 21 broad subject fields

20% # citations (from ISI) divided by # of staff 20% # of articles published in Nature and Science

5% % of overseas staff 20%# of articles in Science Citation Index-expanded and Social Science Citation Index

5% % of overseas students 10% The total scores of the above five indicators divided by the # of staff

17

Croatia produces only 0.19 % of articles indexed on Scopus, UK and US shares are stabilizing or slightly declining

1.1%2.3%

7.6%

26.1%

1.3%2.6%

7.4%

24.9%

0.15% 0.19%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Croatia Poland Spain UK US

'96-'02

'03-'05

Average share of articles published worldwide

• Poland and Spain are decreasing the gap to the UK with regards to the # of articles published worldwide

• Croatia has a very small share of world-articles.

• The UK and US contribute 32.3% of world articles but represent only 5.5% of the world population


18

After Spain’s entrance in the European Union (’86) it gained in output/mln inhabitants over Hungary; access to content is key

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

'76-'80 '81-'85 '86-'90 '91-'95 '96-'00 '01-'05

Ave

rage

# o

f pap

ers

publ

ishe

d pe

r Mio

inha

bita

nts

/ yea

r

Hungary Spain UK

Average yearly article-output per Mio inhabitants


19

The quality of your shoes

Source: www.basf.com


20

To win in R&D, Elsevier provides the best equipment


21

In 2006 Elsevier delivered 80% of all Full-text Electronic articles In Poland

2006 Market share in Electronic full text article downloads

Through the Science Direct platform, Elsevier delivered over 3 million Full Text Articles to Polish scientists

Source: http://vls.icm.edu.pl/statystyki/index.html , statistics site for the Polish National Consortium


22

In Hungary the usage of SD has even turned a declining article-output of -1% around into a growth of 11% per year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

# ar

ticl

es p

ub

lish

ed /

Mio

in

hab

itan

ts

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

FT

A d

ow

nlo

ads

/ M

io I

nh

abit

ants

Hungary Articles Published Spain Articles Published Hungary SD Usage Spain SD Usage

4 %

12 %

-1 %11 %

Average growth per year (%)


23

Because Romania lags behind with SD usage, a flat article growth of 7% per year will result in an increasing gap to Hungary and Poland

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

# ar

ticl

es p

ub

lish

ed /

Mio

in

hab

itan

ts

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

FT

A d

ow

nlo

ads

/ M

io I

nh

abit

ants

Hungary Articles Published Romania Articles Published Poland Articles Published

Hungary SD Usage Romania SD Usage Poland SD Usage

7 %

-1 %

11 %


4 %

13 %

*In 2003 Poland changed from SDOL to SDOS. The change left some of the Polish institutes without access for several months influencing the total usage

*


24

Croatia is benefiting from an early adoption of SD and has boosted it’s article output to 17% growth per year

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

# ar

ticl

es p

ub

lish

ed /

Mio

in

hab

itan

ts

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

FT

A d

ow

nlo

ads

/ M

io I

nh

abit

ants

Croatia Articles Published Poland Articles Published Croatia SD Usage Poland SD Usage

4 %

17 %


*

4 %

13 %

*In 2003 Poland changed from SDOL to SDOS. The change left some of the Polish institutes without access for several months influencing the total usage


25

Summary of challenges of Croatia

Croatia is benefiting from an early adoption of ScienceDirect and has boosted it’s article output to 17% growth per year

Croatia has a healthy economic growth potential, GDP/Capita is close to EU-member Poland

Bologna process: eBooks are very important now and widely available Compared to the UK, Croatia spends 4 times less on R&D/Capita, R&D

spend per researcher is 2x larger than Poland The per capita R&D spend is significantly below the UK figures Create more awareness at Governmental bodies to realise higher R&D

spending Identify key “niche” research areas where Croatian scientists and

researchers can compete globally Avoid too much fragmentation of research resources; reach critical mass

in “niche” research areas Need to address “brain drain” problem


Thank you for your attention!

Questions?

[email protected]

Documents

2007. May 29. Dubrovnik, Croatia