2007 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast May 2007 Beth King COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group [email protected] Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 2007

2007 Commercial GSO Demand

Forecast

May 2007

Beth King

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group

[email protected]

Cover art by John Sloan/FAA

2007 Summary

Methodology / Realization Factor

Trends – Mass / Transponders

Operator Assessment

Macro Economics

Summary

5/18/2007 2COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group2007 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast

2007 GSO Summary

2007 Commercial GSO Satellite Demand Forecast Effectively The Same As 2006 Forecast

21.0 Average Satellite Demand15.3 Average Launch Demand

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2007 Satellite Demand Forecast

2007 Launch Demand Forecast


Report History

Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast– Updated Annually Since 1993– Methodology Has Been Consistent Over Time, With Ongoing

Enhancements To Final Product– 10-year Forecast Horizon (2007-2016)

2007 Report Presents Updates On– Realization Factor – Growth In Satellite Mass And Transponders Per Satellite– Industry Developments That May Affect Demand– Respondents’ Views On Factors Affecting Demand


Working Group Participation

Beth King (2007 GSO Forecast Chair) - Lockheed Martin

Dr. Alexander Liang (T&IWG Chair) - Aerospace Corporation

Darren Chambo – Lockheed Martin

Lisa Hague – Aerospace Corporation

Doug Howe / Josef Lore - The Boeing Company

John Sloan - FAA AST

Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel – United Launch Alliance

David Keslow - Orbital Sciences Corporation

Debra Facktor Lepore - AirLaunch LLC

Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes / Kathy Shockey - Space Systems / Loral

Jennifer Miceli - Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV

Chris O’Connell - Sea Launch

Chris Sanders - Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne


Forecast Data Request

GSO Satellite Launch Demand Requested For 2007-2016

From 85 Companies Worldwide

– Comprehensive:

• 6 U.S. And 3 International Satellite Manufacturers /

Launch Service Providers

– Individual:

• 13 Demand Inputs From Satellite Operators

Questionnaire On Factors Affecting Market Demand

– 12 Satellite Operators Responded To Questions On How

Various Factors Affected Their Plans To Procure New

Satellites


Forecast Methodology

Near-term (2007-2009) Mission Model– “Bottoms-up” By Name

– Timing And Likelihood Of Launches Assessed

Long-term (2010-2016) Demand Forecast– Average Of Comprehensive Domestic Forecasts By Mass

Categories

Only “Addressable” Commercial GSO Satellites– Defined As Those Open For Internationally Competitive

Launch Service Procurement


Satellite and Launch Forecast

Reflects Increase Of Dual Launch Capacity By Ariane

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Dual Manifest Launches

Single Manifest Launches

Satellites

Actual Long-Term

Demand Forecast

Near-

Term

Manifest


Historical Forecast Comparison

2007 Forecast More Stable Than 2006

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Num

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es 2002 satellite Demand Forecast







Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand

The COMSTAC GSO Forecast Projects Demand For Satellite Launches

Several Factors Can Affect The Execution Of A Scheduled Launch In A Given Year, Including:

– Satellite Delays– Launch Vehicle Delays– Manifesting Delays

A “Realization” Factor Is Calculated Based On An Historical

Analysis Of Forecast Vs Actual Satellite Launches For The First And Second Year Of The Forecast

– This Years Model Changed Realization Factor To Last 5 Years Historical

– Funding– Weather– Regulatory Delays


2006 Actual Launches vs. Forecasted Demand

2006 GSO Planned Actual23 19

Satellite (2)Launch Vehicle (1)Satellite / Launch Vehicle (1)Schedule – Dual Manifest (1)Early Launch 1

83% Actual vs. ForecastRealization Factor Predicted 13-20 Launches


Forecast with Realization

Since Implementation Of The Realization Factor Actual Satellites Launched Has Fallen Within Adjusted Band

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Historical 1st Year SatelliteDemand Forecast2007 Satellite DemandForecastActual Satellites Launched

= Expected Realization

Historical 1st Yr

ForecastLong-Term Demand Forecast

Near-Term Manifest

Actual


Forecast By Satellite Mass Class

2007 Forecast Indicates Stability In Average Satellite Mass

Number Of Small Satellites Continues To Shrink

Below 2,200 kg (<4,850 lbm)

2,200 to 4,200 kg (4,850 - 9,260 lbm) 4,200 to 5,400 kg

(9,260 - 11,900 lbm)

Over 5,400kg

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Near-Term Manifest


Spacecraft Trends: Transponders

Transponder Peaks With Number of Launches

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1,200

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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Total Number of Transponders per YearAverage Transponders per Satellite


Satellite Operator AssessmentSignificant Negative Impact

Some Negative Impact

No Effect Some Positive Impact

Significant Positive Impact

Compared to 2006 = more pos = more neg

Regional or global economic conditions 0% 42% 33% 17% 8%

Demand for satellite services 0% 25% 8% 50% 17% -

Ability to compete with terrestrial services

0% 17% 50% 17% 17%

Availability of financing 8% 17% 58% 17% 0%

Availability of affordable insurance 0% 33% 50% 17% 0%

Consolidation of service providers 9% 27% 64% 0% 0%

Increasing satellite life times 0% 17% 83% 0% 0% -

Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements

8% 8% 58% 17% 8%

Reliability of satellite systems 0% 27% 45% 27% 0% -

Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements 17% 42% 33% 0% 8%

Reliability of launch systems 0% 50% 33% 17% 0%

Ability to obtain required export licenses 17% 42% 42% 0% 0%

Ability to obtain required operating licenses 0% 8% 83% 0% 8%

Legend

Large # positive

Large # negative

Slightly positive or negative


Satellite Operator Assessment - Macro Economics

Availability / Reliability of Launch Vehicles

– Sea Launch Failure – Full Manifests

Economic Conditions

– Continue To Improve, Caution For Potential Financial Bubble

U.S. Government Regulatory Environment

– Continues to drive foreign operators away from U.S. providers

New Commercial Competitors In Launch Market

– Land Launch, Soyuz From French Guiana, Japan and India Launch

Vehicles

Rollout Of New Services

– Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), Ancillary Terrestrial Component

(ATC)

42%

42%

50%


Summary of Findings

GSO Demand Forecast

– Average Annual Satellite Launch Demand Of 21.0 Per Year

– 2007 Demand For 23, Between 15 And 19 Realization

Continued Trend Towards Heavier Satellites, Decrease In Demand Of <2,200 Kg Satellites

Availability And Reliability Of Launch Vehicles, And Export Licensing, Are Largest Business Factors

New Broadband Services May Spur Growth In Demand In Coming Years

– HDTV

– DAR

– ATC

– MSS

Documents

2007 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast May 2007 Beth King COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group [email protected] Cover art by John Sloan/FAA 2007