2006 년 세계경제 전망

2006 2006. 11. 11.www.KCIF.or.kr

I. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. , 6. BRICs ,

II. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

III.

2006

I. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. , 6. BRICs ,

II.

III. 2006

, Self Sustained Growth .

, , . (no landing)

, () ,

, I

() ()

, , II

3.5% 3.3% 4 . (3.25%) , , GDP (: ) 3~3.5% I

3%

refinance (30) 7.0% (: ) (: JPM) II

(: JPM), (: ) III

, 0.5%p

, 0.5%p, 0.6%p GDP (: ): 10$ IV

050607-20 ~ -32-10 ~ -14-6 ~ -10-5 ~ -9-5 ~ -9-14 ~ -22-7 ~ -11-3 ~ -8-2 ~ -60~ -47 ~ 1129 ~ 4330 ~ 4630 ~ 4625 ~ 376 ~ 1012 ~ 1814 ~ 2010 ~ 67 ~ 11-21 ~ -3324 ~ 3635 ~ 4833 ~ 4727 ~ 35

9 1.2%( 4.7%) 7 ( 2.5%) Fed Funds , 4.25%, 4.75~5% (: ) V

: . .

( )

: refi : ,

,

VI

, 9.5% 8% (+25%) (+30%) 5(06-10) 8% I05 4Q IB

Chart2

9.415.513.925.7

9.511.413.826.3

99.57.823.3

8.810.38.070469451314.1

7.26.99.470493921513.8

76.710.13792138972.6

7.28.119.6227300155-2.2

7.87.912.2986496375-7.2

8.37.425.0080338162-7.9

7.75.514.7345680919-1.5

7.56.18.289693757415.1

7.186.239693076416.1

8.110.410.506567531639.2

8.29.812.72760174537.7

8.29.314.504295670725

89.39.715.4

8.410.315.114.7

8.110.317.94.5

7.89.818.23.9

7.510.113.76.5

88.426.19.1

8.28.724.417.8

8.38.824.328.6

8.39.217.430.5

9.99.231.633.5

7.96.732.834.3

9.69.731.429.7

9.910.328.440.5

9.810.74334.1

9.6153137.1

9.11329.934.1

9.514.227.630.8

9.413.722.834.7

9.512.625.430.9

9.412.626.128.9

9.5132530

GDP(L)

(L)

(R)

(R)

Sheet1

GDP CPI M2M1

19919.223.91015.819.614.43.49.8

199214.244.49.818.126.321.26.410.5

199313.561.811.682920.114.724.1

199412.630.47.831.911.218.924.124.8

199510.517.510.32314.21417.117.8

19969.614.812.51.55.112.58.316.3

19978.88.810.2212.511.32.816.3

19987.813.99.70.5-1.58.9-0.816.9

19997.15.110.16.118.28.5-1.422.1

2000810.311.427.835.89.80.420.5

20017.51311.56.88.28.70.719

20028.316.98.822.321.210-0.816.7

20039.326.79.134.739.9171.27.7

20049.525.810.235.43611.53.9

GDP

19919.214.4

199214.221.2

199313.520.1

199412.618.9

199510.514

19969.612.5

19978.811.3

19987.88.9

19997.18.5

200089.8

20017.58.7

20028.310

20039.317

20049.511.5

av9.6813.3428571429

GDP(L)(L)(R)(R)CPI(R)

Mar"-"979.415.513.925.75.2

Jun-979.511.413.826.32.9

Sep-979.09.57.823.32.1

Dec-978.810.38.114.11.0

Mar-987.26.99.513.80.3

Jun"-"987.06.710.12.6-0.9

Sep-987.28.119.6-2.2-1.4

Dec-987.87.912.3-7.2-1.1

Mar-998.37.425.0-7.9-1.4

Jun-997.75.514.7-1.5-2.2

Sep"-"997.56.18.315.1-1.2

Dec-997.18.06.216.1-0.8

Mar-008.110.410.539.20.1

Jun"-"008.29.812.737.70.1

Sep-008.29.314.525.00.3

Dec-008.09.39.715.40.9

Mar-018.410.315.114.70.7

Jun-018.110.317.94.51.6

Sep"-"017.89.818.23.90.8

Dec-017.510.113.76.5-0.2

Mar-0288.426.19.1-0.6

Jun"-"028.28.724.417.8-1.1

Sep-028.38.824.328.6-0.8

Dec-028.39.217.430.5-0.6

Mar"-"039.99.231.633.50.5

Jun"-"037.96.732.834.30.7

Sep"-"039.69.731.429.70.8

Dec-039.910.328.440.52.7

Mar"-"049.810.743.034.12.8

Jun"-"049.615.031.037.14.4

Sep"-"049.113.029.934.15.3

Dec-049.514.227.630.83.2

Mar"-"059.413.722.834.72.8

Jun"-"059.512.625.430.91.7

Sep"-"059.412.626.128.9

Dec-049.513.025.030.0

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

GDP

Sheet2

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

GDP

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P

GDP

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

(L)

(R)

(R)

year()M2 ()() M2

Mar"-"96Jun"-"9815.614.3

Jun-96Sep-9817.116.2

Sep-96Dec-9815.514.9

Dec-96Mar-9915.718.1

Mar"-"979.424.85.2Jun-991518.0

Jun-979.523.02.9Sep"-"991314.7

Sep-979.020.72.1Dec-9912.515.0

Dec-978.820.71.0Mar-0013.413.4

Mar-987.215.80.3Jun"-"0013.814.4

Jun"-"987.014.3-0.9Sep-0014.115.3

Sep-987.216.2-1.4Dec-0013.414.0

Dec-987.814.9-1.1Mar-0113.914.8

Mar-998.318.1-1.4Jun-0113.714.3

Jun-997.618.0-2.2Sep"-"0112.313.4

Sep"-"997.414.7-1.2Dec-0111.614.4

Dec-997.115.0-0.8Mar-0211.914.4

Mar-008.113.40.1Jun"-"0212.214.7

Jun"-"008.214.40.1Sep-0214.216.5

Sep-008.215.30.3Dec-0215.816.8

Dec-008.014.00.9Mar"-"0319.918.5

Mar-018.114.80.7Jun"-"0323.120.8

Jun-017.914.31.6Sep"-"0323.520.7

Sep"-"017.613.40.8Dec-0321.419.6

Dec-017.314.4-0.2Mar"-"0420.119.1

Mar-027.614.4-0.6Jun"-"0416.316.2

Jun"-"027.814.7-1.1Sep"-"0413.614.0

Sep-027.916.5-0.8Dec-0414.514.6

Dec-028.016.8-0.6Mar-051314.0

Mar"-"039.918.50.5Jun-0513.215.7

Jun"-"037.920.80.7Jul-051316.3

Sep-039.620.70.8

Dec-039.919.62.7

Mar"-"049.819.12.8

Jun"-"049.616.24.4

Sep-049.114.05.3

Dec-049.514.63.2

Mar"-"059.414.02.8

Jun"-"059.515.71.7

9.4

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P

()

M2 ()

()

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

M2

CPI(PPI)

2001.11.2-0.41.41.31

20-3.30.9-0.20.3

30.8-10.20.70.9

41.61.3-0.11.81.4

51.71.7-0.21.91.4

61.41-0.61.51.3

71.51.5-1.31.51.3

810.2-20.81.1

9-0.10.3-2.9-0.20.1

100.20.8-3.10.10.5

11-0.3-0.8-3.7-0.60.2

12-0.3-0.8-4-0.60.1

2002.1-0.1-0.9-4.2-1.3-0.4

200.6-4.2-0.20.4

3-0.8-0.6-4-1.1-0.2

4-1.3-2-3.1-1.7-0.5

5-1.1-1.5-2.6-1.4-0.4

6-0.8-0.2-2.5-0.9-0.5

7-0.9-0.9-2.3-1-0.7

8-0.7-0.4-1.7-0.8-0.6

9-0.7-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.5

10-0.8-0.5-1-0.9-0.4

11-0.7-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.4

12-0.40.50.4-0.6-0.1

2003.10.42.42.40.40.3

20.21.83.90.20.3

30.93.24.610.8

413.23.611.1

50.71.920.50.9

60.30.41.300.9

70.511.40.21.1

80.92.21.40.61.4

91.13.21.40.91.6

101.85.11.21.52.4

1138.11.92.43.9

123.28.632.74.1

2004.13.283.52.54.4

22.15.63.51.43.3

337.93.92.44.2

43.810.253.24.9

54.411.85.73.95.2

65146.44.65.6

75.314.66.44.95.9

85.313.96.84.86.1

95.2137.94.56.4

104.3108.43.75.4

112.85.98.12.43.6

122.43.97.21.32.6

2005.11.945.81.42.8

23.98.85.43.64.5

32.75.65.62.33.4

41.83.15.81.52.4

51.82.85.91.42.4

61.62.15.21.32.2

7

8

9

10

11

12

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

CPI

(PPI)

Chart3

9.49

9.38.5

9.28.7

10.79

9.28.8

9.568.8

2005

2006

Sheet1

GDP CPI M2M1

19919.223.91015.819.614.43.49.8

199214.244.49.818.126.321.26.410.5

199313.561.811.682920.114.724.1

199412.630.47.831.911.218.924.124.8

199510.517.510.32314.21417.117.8

19969.614.812.51.55.112.58.316.3

19978.88.810.2212.511.32.816.3

19987.813.99.70.5-1.58.9-0.816.9

19997.15.110.16.118.28.5-1.422.1

2000810.311.427.835.89.80.420.5

20017.51311.56.88.28.70.719

20028.316.98.822.321.210-0.816.7

20039.326.79.134.739.9171.27.7

20049.525.810.235.43611.53.9

GDP

19919.214.4

199214.221.2

199313.520.1

199412.618.9

199510.514

19969.612.5

19978.811.3

19987.88.9

19997.18.5

200089.8

20017.58.7

20028.310

20039.317

20049.511.5

av9.6813.3428571429


Mar"-"979.415.513.925.75.2

Jun-979.511.413.826.32.9

Sep-979.09.57.823.32.1

Dec-978.810.38.114.11.0

Mar-987.26.99.513.80.3

Jun"-"987.06.710.12.6-0.9

Sep-987.28.119.6-2.2-1.4

Dec-987.87.912.3-7.2-1.1

Mar-998.37.425.0-7.9-1.4

Jun-997.75.514.7-1.5-2.2

Sep"-"997.56.18.315.1-1.2

Dec-997.18.06.216.1-0.8

Mar-008.110.410.539.20.1

Jun"-"008.29.812.737.70.1

Sep-008.29.314.525.00.3

Dec-008.09.39.715.40.9

Mar-018.410.315.114.70.7

Jun-018.110.317.94.51.6

Sep"-"017.89.818.23.90.8

Dec-017.510.113.76.5-0.2

Mar-0288.426.19.1-0.6

Jun"-"028.28.724.417.8-1.1

Sep-028.38.824.328.6-0.8

Dec-028.39.217.430.5-0.6

Mar"-"039.99.231.633.50.5

Jun"-"037.96.732.834.30.7

Sep"-"039.69.731.429.70.8

Dec-039.910.328.440.52.7

Mar"-"049.810.743.034.12.8

Jun"-"049.615.031.037.14.4

Sep"-"049.113.029.934.15.3

Dec-049.514.227.630.83.2

Mar"-"059.413.722.834.72.8

Jun"-"059.512.625.430.91.7

Sep"-"059.412.626.128.9

Dec-049.513.025.030.0

Sheet1

GDP

Sheet2

GDP

Sheet3

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

(L)

(R)

(R)

year()M2 ()() M2

Mar"-"96Jun"-"9815.614.3

Jun-96Sep-9817.116.2

Sep-96Dec-9815.514.9

Dec-96Mar-9915.718.1

Mar"-"979.424.85.2Jun-991518.0

Jun-979.523.02.9Sep"-"991314.7

Sep-979.020.72.1Dec-9912.515.0

Dec-978.820.71.0Mar-0013.413.4

Mar-987.215.80.3Jun"-"0013.814.4

Jun"-"987.014.3-0.9Sep-0014.115.3

Sep-987.216.2-1.4Dec-0013.414.0

Dec-987.814.9-1.1Mar-0113.914.8

Mar-998.318.1-1.4Jun-0113.714.3

Jun-997.618.0-2.2Sep"-"0112.313.4

Sep"-"997.414.7-1.2Dec-0111.614.4

Dec-997.115.0-0.8Mar-0211.914.4

Mar-008.113.40.1Jun"-"0212.214.7

Jun"-"008.214.40.1Sep-0214.216.5

Sep-008.215.30.3Dec-0215.816.8

Dec-008.014.00.9Mar"-"0319.918.5

Mar-018.114.80.7Jun"-"0323.120.8

Jun-017.914.31.6Sep"-"0323.520.7

Sep"-"017.613.40.8Dec-0321.419.6

Dec-017.314.4-0.2Mar"-"0420.119.1

Mar-027.614.4-0.6Jun"-"0416.316.2

Jun"-"027.814.7-1.1Sep"-"0413.614.0

Sep-027.916.5-0.8Dec-0414.514.6

Dec-028.016.8-0.6Mar-051314.0

Mar"-"039.918.50.5Jun-0513.215.7

Jun"-"037.920.80.7Jul-051316.3

Sep-039.620.70.8

Dec-039.919.62.7

Mar"-"049.819.12.8

Jun"-"049.616.24.4

Sep-049.114.05.3

Dec-049.514.63.2

Mar"-"059.414.02.8

Jun"-"059.515.71.7

9.4

20052006

Goldman Sachs9.49

JP Morgan9.38.5

Lehman Brother9.28.7

UBS Warburg10.79

ADB9.28.8

9.568.8

&A

Page &P

()

M2 ()

()

M2

2005

2006

CPI(PPI)

2001.11.2-0.41.41.31

20-3.30.9-0.20.3

30.8-10.20.70.9

41.61.3-0.11.81.4

51.71.7-0.21.91.4

61.41-0.61.51.3

71.51.5-1.31.51.3

810.2-20.81.1

9-0.10.3-2.9-0.20.1

100.20.8-3.10.10.5

11-0.3-0.8-3.7-0.60.2

12-0.3-0.8-4-0.60.1

2002.1-0.1-0.9-4.2-1.3-0.4

200.6-4.2-0.20.4

3-0.8-0.6-4-1.1-0.2

4-1.3-2-3.1-1.7-0.5

5-1.1-1.5-2.6-1.4-0.4

6-0.8-0.2-2.5-0.9-0.5

7-0.9-0.9-2.3-1-0.7

8-0.7-0.4-1.7-0.8-0.6

9-0.7-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.5

10-0.8-0.5-1-0.9-0.4

11-0.7-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.4

12-0.40.50.4-0.6-0.1

2003.10.42.42.40.40.3

20.21.83.90.20.3

30.93.24.610.8

413.23.611.1

50.71.920.50.9

60.30.41.300.9

70.511.40.21.1

80.92.21.40.61.4

91.13.21.40.91.6

101.85.11.21.52.4

1138.11.92.43.9

123.28.632.74.1

2004.13.283.52.54.4

22.15.63.51.43.3

337.93.92.44.2

43.810.253.24.9

54.411.85.73.95.2

65146.44.65.6

75.314.66.44.95.9

85.313.96.84.86.1

95.2137.94.56.4

104.3108.43.75.4

112.85.98.12.43.6

122.43.97.21.32.6

2005.11.945.81.42.8

23.98.85.43.64.5

32.75.65.62.33.4

41.83.15.81.52.4

51.82.85.91.42.4

61.62.15.21.32.2

7

8

9

10

11

12

CPI

(PPI)

70% II M2 ,

Chart5

1.2-0.41.4

0-3.30.9

0.8-10.2

1.61.3-0.1

1.71.7-0.2

1.41-0.6

1.51.5-1.3

10.2-2

-0.10.3-2.9

0.20.8-3.1

-0.3-0.8-3.7

-0.3-0.8-4

-0.1-0.9-4.2

00.6-4.2

-0.8-0.6-4

-1.3-2-3.1

-1.1-1.5-2.6

-0.8-0.2-2.5

-0.9-0.9-2.3

-0.7-0.4-1.7

-0.7-0.2-1.4

-0.8-0.5-1

-0.7-0.1-0.4

-0.40.50.4

0.42.42.4

0.21.83.9

0.93.24.6

13.23.6

0.71.92

0.30.41.3

0.511.4

0.92.21.4

1.13.21.4

1.85.11.2

38.11.9

3.28.63

3.283.5

2.15.63.5

37.93.9

3.810.25

4.411.85.7

5146.4

5.314.66.4

5.313.96.8

5.2137.9

4.3108.4

2.85.98.1

2.43.97.2

1.945.8

3.98.85.4

2.75.65.6

1.83.15.8

1.82.85.9

1.62.15.2

1.82.35.2

1.30.95.3

0.90.34.5

CPI

(PPI)

Sheet1

GDP CPI M2M1

19919.223.91015.819.614.43.49.8

199214.244.49.818.126.321.26.410.5

199313.561.811.682920.114.724.1

199412.630.47.831.911.218.924.124.8

199510.517.510.32314.21417.117.8

19969.614.812.51.55.112.58.316.3

19978.88.810.2212.511.32.816.3

19987.813.99.70.5-1.58.9-0.816.9

19997.15.110.16.118.28.5-1.422.1

2000810.311.427.835.89.80.420.5

20017.51311.56.88.28.70.719

20028.316.98.822.321.210-0.816.7

20039.326.79.134.739.9171.27.7

20049.525.810.235.43611.53.9

GDP

19919.214.4

199214.221.2

199313.520.1

199412.618.9

199510.514

19969.612.5

19978.811.3

19987.88.9

19997.18.5

200089.8

20017.58.7

20028.310

20039.317

20049.511.5

av9.6813.3428571429


Mar"-"979.415.513.925.75.2

Jun-979.511.413.826.32.9

Sep-979.09.57.823.32.1

Dec-978.810.38.114.11.0

Mar-987.26.99.513.80.3

Jun"-"987.06.710.12.6-0.9

Sep-987.28.119.6-2.2-1.4

Dec-987.87.912.3-7.2-1.1

Mar-998.37.425.0-7.9-1.4

Jun-997.75.514.7-1.5-2.2

Sep"-"997.56.18.315.1-1.2

Dec-997.18.06.216.1-0.8

Mar-008.110.410.539.20.1

Jun"-"008.29.812.737.70.1

Sep-008.29.314.525.00.3

Dec-008.09.39.715.40.9

Mar-018.410.315.114.70.7

Jun-018.110.317.94.51.6

Sep"-"017.89.818.23.90.8

Dec-017.510.113.76.5-0.2

Mar-0288.426.19.1-0.6

Jun"-"028.28.724.417.8-1.1

Sep-028.38.824.328.6-0.8

Dec-028.39.217.430.5-0.6

Mar"-"039.99.231.633.50.5

Jun"-"037.96.732.834.30.7

Sep"-"039.69.731.429.70.8

Dec-039.910.328.440.52.7

Mar"-"049.810.743.034.12.8

Jun"-"049.615.031.037.14.4

Sep"-"049.113.029.934.15.3

Dec-049.514.227.630.83.2

Mar"-"059.413.722.834.72.8

Jun"-"059.512.625.430.91.7

Sep"-"059.412.626.128.9

Dec-049.513.025.030.0

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

GDP

Sheet2

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

GDP

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

(L)

(R)

(R)

year()M2 ()() M2

Mar"-"96Jun"-"9815.614.3

Jun-96Sep-9817.116.2

Sep-96Dec-9815.514.9

Dec-96Mar-9915.718.1

Mar"-"979.424.85.2Jun-991518.0

Jun-979.523.02.9Sep"-"991314.7

Sep-979.020.72.1Dec-9912.515.0

Dec-978.820.71.0Mar-0013.413.4

Mar-987.215.80.3Jun"-"0013.814.4

Jun"-"987.014.3-0.9Sep-0014.115.3

Sep-987.216.2-1.4Dec-0013.414.0

Dec-987.814.9-1.1Mar-0113.914.8

Mar-998.318.1-1.4Jun-0113.714.3

Jun-997.618.0-2.2Sep"-"0112.313.4

Sep"-"997.414.7-1.2Dec-0111.614.4

Dec-997.115.0-0.8Mar-0211.914.4

Mar-008.113.40.1Jun"-"0212.214.7

Jun"-"008.214.40.1Sep-0214.216.5

Sep-008.215.30.3Dec-0215.816.8

Dec-008.014.00.9Mar"-"0319.918.5

Mar-018.114.80.7Jun"-"0323.120.8

Jun-017.914.31.6Sep"-"0323.520.7

Sep"-"017.613.40.8Dec-0321.419.6

Dec-017.314.4-0.2Mar"-"0420.119.1

Mar-027.614.4-0.6Jun"-"0416.316.2

Jun"-"027.814.7-1.1Sep"-"0413.614.0

Sep-027.916.5-0.8Dec-0414.514.6

Dec-028.016.8-0.6Mar-051314.0

Mar"-"039.918.50.5Jun-0513.315.7

Jun"-"037.920.80.7Jul-0513.116.3

Sep-039.620.70.8Aug-0513.417.3

Dec-039.919.62.7Sep-0513.817.9

Mar"-"049.819.12.8

Jun"-"049.616.24.4

Sep-049.114.05.3

Dec-049.514.63.2

Mar"-"059.414.02.8

Jun"-"059.515.71.7

9.4

20052006

Goldman Sachs9.49

JP Morgan9.38.5


UBS Warburg10.79

ADB9.28.8

9.568.8

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P

()

M2 ()

()

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

M2

00

00

00

00

00

00

2005

2006

CPI(PPI)

2001.11.2-0.41.41.31

20-3.30.9-0.20.3

30.8-10.20.70.9

41.61.3-0.11.81.4

51.71.7-0.21.91.4

61.41-0.61.51.3

71.51.5-1.31.51.3

810.2-20.81.1

9-0.10.3-2.9-0.20.1

100.20.8-3.10.10.5

11-0.3-0.8-3.7-0.60.2

12-0.3-0.8-4-0.60.1

2002.1-0.1-0.9-4.2-1.3-0.4

200.6-4.2-0.20.4

3-0.8-0.6-4-1.1-0.2

4-1.3-2-3.1-1.7-0.5

5-1.1-1.5-2.6-1.4-0.4

6-0.8-0.2-2.5-0.9-0.5

7-0.9-0.9-2.3-1-0.7

8-0.7-0.4-1.7-0.8-0.6

9-0.7-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.5

10-0.8-0.5-1-0.9-0.4

11-0.7-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.4

12-0.40.50.4-0.6-0.1

2003.10.42.42.40.40.3

20.21.83.90.20.3

30.93.24.610.8

413.23.611.1

50.71.920.50.9

60.30.41.300.9

70.511.40.21.1

80.92.21.40.61.4

91.13.21.40.91.6

101.85.11.21.52.4

1138.11.92.43.9

123.28.632.74.1

2004.13.283.52.54.4

22.15.63.51.43.3

337.93.92.44.2

43.810.253.24.9

54.411.85.73.95.2

65146.44.65.6

75.314.66.44.95.9

85.313.96.84.86.1

95.2137.94.56.4

104.3108.43.75.4

112.85.98.12.43.6

122.43.97.21.32.6

2005.11.945.81.42.8

23.98.85.43.64.5

32.75.65.62.33.4

41.83.15.81.52.4

51.82.85.91.42.4

61.62.15.21.32.2

71.82.35.2

81.30.95.3

90.90.34.5

10

11

12

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

CPI

(PPI)

Chart4

15.614.3273476

17.116.2430081689

15.514.904351688

15.718.0521880826

1517.9926942081

1314.722358851

12.514.9828122335

13.413.38

13.814.39

14.115.27

13.413.99

13.914.8332864163

13.714.2681245954

12.313.4196700641

11.614.4159864732

11.914.4

12.214.7

14.216.5

15.816.8

19.918.5

23.120.8

23.520.7

21.419.6

20.119.1

16.316.2

13.614

14.514.6

1314

13.315.7

13.116.3

13.417.3

13.817.9

M2

Sheet1

GDP CPI M2M1

19919.223.91015.819.614.43.49.8

199214.244.49.818.126.321.26.410.5

199313.561.811.682920.114.724.1

199412.630.47.831.911.218.924.124.8

199510.517.510.32314.21417.117.8

19969.614.812.51.55.112.58.316.3

19978.88.810.2212.511.32.816.3

19987.813.99.70.5-1.58.9-0.816.9

19997.15.110.16.118.28.5-1.422.1

2000810.311.427.835.89.80.420.5

20017.51311.56.88.28.70.719

20028.316.98.822.321.210-0.816.7

20039.326.79.134.739.9171.27.7

20049.525.810.235.43611.53.9

GDP

19919.214.4

199214.221.2

199313.520.1

199412.618.9

199510.514

19969.612.5

19978.811.3

19987.88.9

19997.18.5

200089.8

20017.58.7

20028.310

20039.317

20049.511.5

av9.6813.3428571429


Mar"-"979.415.513.925.75.2

Jun-979.511.413.826.32.9

Sep-979.09.57.823.32.1

Dec-978.810.38.114.11.0

Mar-987.26.99.513.80.3

Jun"-"987.06.710.12.6-0.9

Sep-987.28.119.6-2.2-1.4

Dec-987.87.912.3-7.2-1.1

Mar-998.37.425.0-7.9-1.4

Jun-997.75.514.7-1.5-2.2

Sep"-"997.56.18.315.1-1.2

Dec-997.18.06.216.1-0.8

Mar-008.110.410.539.20.1

Jun"-"008.29.812.737.70.1

Sep-008.29.314.525.00.3

Dec-008.09.39.715.40.9

Mar-018.410.315.114.70.7

Jun-018.110.317.94.51.6

Sep"-"017.89.818.23.90.8

Dec-017.510.113.76.5-0.2

Mar-0288.426.19.1-0.6

Jun"-"028.28.724.417.8-1.1

Sep-028.38.824.328.6-0.8

Dec-028.39.217.430.5-0.6

Mar"-"039.99.231.633.50.5

Jun"-"037.96.732.834.30.7

Sep"-"039.69.731.429.70.8

Dec-039.910.328.440.52.7

Mar"-"049.810.743.034.12.8

Jun"-"049.615.031.037.14.4

Sep"-"049.113.029.934.15.3

Dec-049.514.227.630.83.2

Mar"-"059.413.722.834.72.8

Jun"-"059.512.625.430.91.7

Sep"-"059.412.626.128.9

Dec-049.513.025.030.0

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

GDP

Sheet2

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

GDP

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

&A

Page &P

GDP(L)

(L)

(R)

(R)

year()M2 ()() M2

Mar"-"96Jun"-"9815.614.3

Jun-96Sep-9817.116.2

Sep-96Dec-9815.514.9

Dec-96Mar-9915.718.1

Mar"-"979.424.85.2Jun-991518.0

Jun-979.523.02.9Sep"-"991314.7

Sep-979.020.72.1Dec-9912.515.0

Dec-978.820.71.0Mar-0013.413.4

Mar-987.215.80.3Jun"-"0013.814.4

Jun"-"987.014.3-0.9Sep-0014.115.3

Sep-987.216.2-1.4Dec-0013.414.0

Dec-987.814.9-1.1Mar-0113.914.8

Mar-998.318.1-1.4Jun-0113.714.3

Jun-997.618.0-2.2Sep"-"0112.313.4

Sep"-"997.414.7-1.2Dec-0111.614.4

Dec-997.115.0-0.8Mar-0211.914.4

Mar-008.113.40.1Jun"-"0212.214.7

Jun"-"008.214.40.1Sep-0214.216.5

Sep-008.215.30.3Dec-0215.816.8

Dec-008.014.00.9Mar"-"0319.918.5

Mar-018.114.80.7Jun"-"0323.120.8

Jun-017.914.31.6Sep"-"0323.520.7

Sep"-"017.613.40.8Dec-0321.419.6

Dec-017.314.4-0.2Mar"-"0420.119.1

Mar-027.614.4-0.6Jun"-"0416.316.2

Jun"-"027.814.7-1.1Sep"-"0413.614.0

Sep-027.916.5-0.8Dec-0414.514.6

Dec-028.016.8-0.6Mar-051314.0

Mar"-"039.918.50.5Jun-0513.315.7

Jun"-"037.920.80.7Jul-0513.116.3

Sep-039.620.70.8Aug-0513.417.3

Dec-039.919.62.7Sep-0513.817.9

Mar"-"049.819.12.8

Jun"-"049.616.24.4

Sep-049.114.05.3

Dec-049.514.63.2

Mar"-"059.414.02.8

Jun"-"059.515.71.7

9.4

20052006

Goldman Sachs9.49

JP Morgan9.38.5


UBS Warburg10.79

ADB9.28.8

9.568.8

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P

()

M2 ()

()

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

M2

00

00

00

00

00

00

2005

2006

CPI(PPI)

2001.11.2-0.41.41.31

20-3.30.9-0.20.3

30.8-10.20.70.9

41.61.3-0.11.81.4

51.71.7-0.21.91.4

61.41-0.61.51.3

71.51.5-1.31.51.3

810.2-20.81.1

9-0.10.3-2.9-0.20.1

100.20.8-3.10.10.5

11-0.3-0.8-3.7-0.60.2

12-0.3-0.8-4-0.60.1

2002.1-0.1-0.9-4.2-1.3-0.4

200.6-4.2-0.20.4

3-0.8-0.6-4-1.1-0.2

4-1.3-2-3.1-1.7-0.5

5-1.1-1.5-2.6-1.4-0.4

6-0.8-0.2-2.5-0.9-0.5

7-0.9-0.9-2.3-1-0.7

8-0.7-0.4-1.7-0.8-0.6

9-0.7-0.2-1.4-0.8-0.5

10-0.8-0.5-1-0.9-0.4

11-0.7-0.1-0.4-0.8-0.4

12-0.40.50.4-0.6-0.1

2003.10.42.42.40.40.3

20.21.83.90.20.3

30.93.24.610.8

413.23.611.1

50.71.920.50.9

60.30.41.300.9

70.511.40.21.1

80.92.21.40.61.4

91.13.21.40.91.6

101.85.11.21.52.4

1138.11.92.43.9

123.28.632.74.1

2004.13.283.52.54.4

22.15.63.51.43.3

337.93.92.44.2

43.810.253.24.9

54.411.85.73.95.2

65146.44.65.6

75.314.66.44.95.9

85.313.96.84.86.1

95.2137.94.56.4

104.3108.43.75.4

112.85.98.12.43.6

122.43.97.21.32.6

2005.11.945.81.42.8

23.98.85.43.64.5

32.75.65.62.33.4

41.83.15.81.52.4

51.82.85.91.42.4

61.62.15.21.32.2

7

8

9

10

11

12

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

CPI

(PPI)

, FDI 1,000 , FDI 650 FDI III FDI NDF(1) 7.21 1

Chart2

407241

469226

527303

535255

606.8319.8

6501000

FDI

Sheet1

94-9395-9496-9597-9698-9799-9800-9901-0002-0103-02

30422032434951971034667421168382.4

Sheet1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sheet2

1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005(1-6)

()3042203243495197103466742116820661010

FDI388375417453455404407469527535606.8285.6

54167122404436291241226303255319.8396

200020012002200320042005

FDI407469527535606.8650

241226303255319.8800

Sheet2

()

FDI

Sheet3

FDI

I: IV ,

8%

20% GDP 55% 60% ,

,

II: , , , , , ( IB, 25% - 45% )

V

2.2% 1.9% (04 2.7%) . (1.5%) GDP I : Bloomberg Survey

( 0.1%)

IT ( 0.3% ) II : : Deutsche Bank

(03 5.5% 06 3%) 3 (, ) 3 III : Deutsche Bank: Deutsche Bank

9 ,

- , , - - - CPI 8 ( +0.1%) +0.5% IV : Bloomberg Survey, Deutsche Bank

: , , ,

(04); 22.4%,EU 15.5%, 13.1%,ASEAN 12.9% ,

GDP 1/3, 1/2

BOJ

.

V

1.3% 1.8% I 2 ,

(1.9%) : CSFB,DB IB

, ,

: ECB

Chart1

Chart1

0.71.10.2-0.6

1.81.35.91.4

1.31.33.81.2

1.81.36.22.9

&A

Page &P

GDP

()

()

Sheet1

2003200420052006

GDP0.71.81.31.8

1.11.31.31.3

()0.25.93.86.2

()-0.61.41.22.9

Sheet3

ECB, II ,

4 - ECB (2%)

, 2 - ECB , - 1Q 25bp (50%), 2Q 25bp (80%) - 4Q 50bp ( 50%) [2005.10.26 ]

Chart2

2.1332.1972.65

2.132.1542.53

2.1312.1542.54

2.1322.1742.62

2.1342.1782.61

2.1342.1792.62

2.1342.1882.59

2.1342.2042.61

2.1362.2232.66

2.1352.2182.62

2.1362.2312.64

2.1362.2342.67

2.1362.2292.66

2.1362.2212.62

2.1362.2212.62

2.1352.2052.58

2.1362.2162.63

2.1412.2562.66

2.1442.2662.73

2.1462.2762.72

2.172.2832.71

2.1762.3222.79

2.1782.3342.79

2.1812.3382.8

2.1832.3342.8

2.1832.3372.79

2.1922.3842.78

2.1912.3792.83

2.1922.392.84

2.1862.3862.76

2.1852.3852.84

2.1852.3852.84

2.1872.4092.9

2.1882.4242.92

2.1882.4162.83

2.1872.4152.87

2.1862.4282.9

2.1852.4212.85

2.1862.4322.92

2.2092.4893.01

3M()

12M()

5()

Sheet1

GDP ()

1Q032.2

2Q032.2

3Q032.6

4Q033.1

1Q043.5

2Q043.7

3Q043

4Q042.5

1Q051.7

2Q051.5

3Q051.6

4Q052

1Q062.4

2Q062.7

3Q062.4

4Q062.4

Sheet1

GDP ()

Sheet2

3M() 12M()5()

1-Sep-052.1332.1972.65

2-Sep-052.132.1542.53

5-Sep-052.1312.1542.54

6-Sep-052.1322.1742.62

7-Sep-052.1342.1782.61

8-Sep-052.1342.1792.62

9-Sep-052.1342.1882.59

12-Sep-052.1342.2042.61

13-Sep-052.1362.2232.66

14-Sep-052.1352.2182.62

15-Sep-052.1362.2312.64

16-Sep-052.1362.2342.67

19-Sep-052.1362.2292.66

20-Sep-052.1362.2212.62

21-Sep-052.1362.2212.62

22-Sep-052.1352.2052.58

23-Sep-052.1362.2162.63

26-Sep-052.1412.2562.66

27-Sep-052.1442.2662.73

28-Sep-052.1462.2762.72

29-Sep-052.172.2832.71

30-Sep-052.1762.3222.79

3-Oct-052.1782.3342.79

4-Oct-052.1812.3382.8

5-Oct-052.1832.3342.8

6-Oct-052.1832.3372.79

7-Oct-052.1922.3842.78

10-Oct-052.1912.3792.83

11-Oct-052.1922.392.84

12-Oct-052.1862.3862.76

13-Oct-052.1852.3852.84

14-Oct-052.1852.3852.84

17-Oct-052.1872.4092.9

18-Oct-052.1882.4242.92

19-Oct-052.1882.4162.83

20-Oct-052.1872.4152.87

21-Oct-052.1862.4282.9

24-Oct-052.1852.4212.85

25-Oct-052.1862.4322.92

26-Oct-052.2092.4893.01

Sheet2

&A

Page &P

3M()

12M()

5()

Sheet3

: , , ECB

(06),(07)

III : Oxford Analytica (04 )

Chart2

8.64.9

88100

80100

Sheet1

(058)()

8.68880

4.9100100

Sheet2

Sheet3

(1.8%), 2%

5 125bp (3.5 4.75%) ,

05.8 1 (4.75 4.5%) , , : (9 ): CSFB

Chart1

Chart1

2.52.61.20

3.23.73.94.9

1.81.84.83

2.52.54.84.5

&A

Page &P

GDP

()

()

Sheet1

2003200420052006

GDP2.53.21.82.5

2.63.71.82.5

()1.23.94.84.8

()04.934.5

Sheet3

BRICs : Reserve Bank of India, IIF, EIUGDP ( ) ()GDP ( ), IT : , , , , ,

(22.3% YTD, 11/3) 7.4% , 6.9%

2004 105.7%

Chart4

6.06041294934.419.1

4.37360181893.720.1

5.78620581480.8-9.2

3.97627657351.621.1

8.50949890852.720.2

6.94.2105.7

7.43.52005f

6.92.92006f

GDP ()

()

%

%

Sheet1

2006

1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q

7.28.47.66.76.478.17.27JP Morgan

7.26.4Deutche Bank

7.26.9Morgan Stanley

6.96.8ADB

7.46.9EIU

200420052006

1/42/43/44/41/42/4

7.28.47.66.76.47.08.17.27.0(JP Morgan)

7.26.4(Deutche Bank)

7.26.9(Morgan Stanley)

6.96.8(ADB)

7.46.9(EIU)

Trends in GDP Growth

GDP () ()

1990/915.6

1991/921.3

1992/935.1

1993/945.9

1994/957.3

1995/967.3

1996/977.8

1997/984.8

1998/996.5

19996.14.419.1

20004.43.720.1

20015.80.8-9.2

20024.01.621.1

20038.52.720.2

20046.94.2105.7

2005f7.43.5

2006f6.92.9

6.4

GDP ()

()

GDP ()

()

%

%

&A

Page &P

GDP

GDP ()

()

%

%

Sheet2

GDP ()

()

%

%

India's Overall Balance of Payments in Dollars

(US $ Million)

2004-05 P2003-04 PR2002-03 R2001-02 R2000-2001PR1999-2000PR1998-99PR

ItemCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNetCreditDebitNet

A.CURRENT ACCOUNT158,331164,762-6,431117,705107,14410,56195,69989,3546,34581,44078,0403,40079,34181,920-2,57967,85472,552-4,69860,06864,106-4,038

a) Services51,32636,69614,63024,94918,3586,59120,76317,1203,64317,14013,8163,32418,87016,3922,47815,70911,6454,06413,18611,0212,165

of which : S/W Services17,30067416,62612,20045011,7509,6007378,8637,5566726,884

1.0572367630.20160863070.2113768961-0.09167991520.2010.191

US: Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2000p

UAZCBA

USD bn

A: 1990: 2004

19907112.5

19917100.5

19927336.6

19937532.7

19947835.5

19958031.7

19968328.90.0370033741

19978703.50.0449759272

19989066.90.0417533176

19999470.30.0444915021

200098170.0366091887

20019890.70.0075073851

200210048.80.0159847129

200310320.60.0270480057

200410755.70.0421584016

BRICs ,

: Bloomberg, S&P: Bloomberg, S&P/GDP()/GDP()

%

Sheet1

Indicators19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Updated October 17Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

% change previous year-4.2-2.7-0.1-6.0-4.3-3.6-5.6-2.40.60.82.83.32.2-1.5-11.9-9.2-2.87.026.015.914.312.011.99.65.25.94.54.12.63.95.52.66.07.56.97.47.47.37.67.23.74.14.5

% change previous year-1.6-4.9-6.1-7.30.1-0.81.4-0.8-0.9-3.1-6.4-8.4-4.7-4.1-4.20.4-4.4-6.8-5.2-6.6-5.0-2.7-2.6-2.10.21.40.30.40.11.93.32.92.32.23.64.12.91.22.51.1-2.8-2.9-9.0-11.6-15.0-11.7-9.4-6.6-3.8-4.3-0.4-0.57.314.720.527.330.515.915.616.214.116.712.39.514.212.411.913.210.713.911.63.97.83.14.77.07.03.74.55.13.85.14.72.62.22.03.74.32.84.47.83.45.53.90.83.24.96.56.77.18.57.07.15.58.07.27.17.96.48.57.45.46.99.36.99.76.14.612.54.62.15.14.03.91.46.94.93.45.2

2003 3Q4Q2004 1Q2Q3Q4Q2005 1Q2Q

5.66.66.98.19.79.37.09.8

7.08.28.610.212.211.68.111.9

Sheet1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Chart1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Chart2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sheet2

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

&A

Page &P

Sheet3

001

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

&A

Page &P

#REF!

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

&A

Page &P

74.79.6

6.77.313.7

5.47.14.9

9.15.23.5

7.15.23

7.65.43

852.5

44.5-21.6

17.7-6.3

-8.51

-29.16.4

-41.813.7

-48.117.8

-50.119.1

&A

Page &P

()

200320042005

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

6.07.56.97.47.47.37.67.23.74.14.5

5.66.66.98.19.79.37.09.8

2002200320042005200620072008

76.75.49.17.17.68

4.77.37.15.25.25.45

312.910.87.57.55.55

9.613.74.93.5332.5

2002200320042005200620072008

-50.1-48.1-41.8-29.1-8.517.744.5

55.14.43.63.22.6-3.8

2002200320042005200620072008

44.517.7-8.5-29.1-41.8-48.1-50.1

()-21.6-6.316.413.717.819.1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

&A

Page &P

BRICs : Bloomberg, IIF, : % 3% , ,

S&P(B+BB-),Moodys(B1Ba3) GDP , %

Sheet1

1IIF DATABASE: BRAZIL12-Sep-05

Page #

1CodeDOMESTIC ECONOMY & EXTERNAL TRADE1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1DOMESTIC ECONOMY (1980 prices, millions)

1

1E100Real GDP ( real )0.00390.00410.00450.00430.00430.00420.00440.00470.00510.00530.00530.00550.00530.00540.00540.00560.00590.00620.00640.00660.00660.00660.00690.00700.00710.00720.00750.00780.00810.0084

1E101Real GDP % change4.86.89.7-4.50.5-3.55.35.89.83.6-0.13.3-2.91.0-0.54.95.94.22.73.30.10.84.41.31.90.54.93.54.03.7

1

1E201Domestic demand % change4.56.77.6-7.61.0-6.72.45.114.41.2-2.13.5-1.33.0-2.56.28.29.43.54.8-0.5-3.94.4-0.8-2.4-2.12.92.73.84.0

1E211Consumption % change8.76.3-6.03.7-2.92.22.812.51.7-1.44.00.54.5-1.86.27.29.83.94.0-0.6-3.34.3-1.1-2.0-1.51.51.93.43.4

1E231Gross fixed capital % change5.43.99.2-12.4-6.7-16.11.28.823.0-1.1-4.81.2-9.4-4.7-6.66.314.37.31.29.3-0.3-7.34.41.1-4.2-5.110.97.06.07.0

1

1E301Exports of goods and services % change13.39.322.721.3-9.214.322.07.0-10.619.213.15.1-5.0-4.816.511.74.0-2.00.611.23.79.211.111.27.99.018.018.09.07.5

1E311Imports of goods and services % change4.68.20.6-12.3-6.0-17.4-3.00.128.6-2.9-1.18.911.111.14.526.820.430.75.417.8-0.3-14.711.41.2-12.3-1.714.323.011.010.5

1E322Change in net foreign balance % GDP-0.5-0.31.73.3-0.43.22.91.0-3.62.51.80.1-1.7-1.81.9-1.0-2.0-4.9-0.9-1.60.74.80.02.14.22.52.31.10.60.2

1

1E500Nominal GDP (real million)0.0000010.0000020.0000050.0000090.0000180.0000430.0001400.000500.001330.00420.02940.42610.9760.29641.01409734920564619277888787074391418897384611012551198736134602815561821769202190504420496582190125

1E501Nominal GDP % change45.664.8108.097.8106.0132.0229.3258.1164.9215.0600.41349.02477.1449.4963.22099.42377.185.020.511.85.06.513.18.912.315.613.77.77.66.9

1E505GDP deflator % change38.254.489.6107.1104.9140.3212.8238.6141.2204.0601.21303.02553.7443.8968.51996.62239.177.617.48.34.95.78.47.510.215.08.34.03.53.0

1E510Nominal GDP ($ billion)200221235263282203209223268294379408413433447439548704775808788537602508461506605770798894

1

1E600Nominal GNP (real million)0.0000010.0000020.0000040.0000090.0000170.0000400.0001320.000480.001270.00400.02810.41210.6758.68625.51370434240463603876665985330789294793973910686581153452129408415010321710711184164719877552127585

1E601Nominal GNP % change144.064.1106.996.0103.9130.3229.8259.4167.3217.3597.11363.52489.9450.2965.82091.02398.685.820.511.34.65.213.77.912.216.014.07.77.97.0

1E610Nominal GNP ($ billion)195540215159228253267191197211256283295400429397381427537693763792769518584489443488585744774868

1

1E801Industrial production % change6.17.09.2-10.20.0-5.27.18.510.90.9-3.22.9-8.9-2.6-3.77.46.71.93.34.6-1.0-2.24.8-0.52.60.16.2

1E901Agricultural production % change10.19.6-3.3-1.88.513.2-10.115.3-1.72.8-3.72.85.4-1.05.54.13.1-0.81.38.32.25.85.54.55.3

1

1EXTERNAL TRADE

1

1T103Goods exports: volume % change13.511.324.722.9-7.75.920.31.6-14.715.515.43.5-19.71.919.411.46.5-7.30.19.45.86.18.311.08.615.619.219.06.57.1

1T105Goods exports: unit value % change-8.09.85.9-5.9-6.12.52.5-6.62.21.611.7-1.713.7-1.2-5.2-3.36.115.22.61.5-8.8-11.55.9-4.8-4.54.710.73.20.5-0.4

1

1T203Goods imports: volume % change7.110.0-0.2-3.5-8.7-17.5-4.4-1.025.0-2.00.69.91.26.9-1.330.922.336.31.3-2.54.4-6.28.50.0-12.1-3.717.920.816.315.5

1T205Goods imports: unit value % change6.919.828.0-0.3-3.8-3.6-5.6-4.4-14.79.3-3.613.811.5-4.5-1.0-6.17.110.65.614.9-7.5-9.14.5-0.4-3.36.110.33.02.21.8

1

1T305Terms of trade % change-13.9-8.4-17.3-5.6-2.36.38.6-2.319.7-7.115.8-13.62.03.5-4.23.0-1.04.2-2.9-11.7-1.4-2.61.4-4.4-1.2-1.40.40.2-1.7-2.2

1

1T400Exchange rate, end-period (Real/$)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0040.1170.850.971.041.121.211.791.962.323.532.922.722.392.662.22

1T410Exchange rate, average (Real/$)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0020.0320.640.921.001.081.161.811.832.362.923.082.932.472.572.45

1

1T430Nominal effective rate (2000 = 100)635775394060.81079664073842.4743069269000.6346783169777.9129278576670.050200500314.819584367527.68688583093.11674556004.2213906618.99313611.01378218.6152996.911412.2381.8175164.1160.7151.497.4100.079.876.765.365.076.472.975.9

1T440Real effective rate (2000 = 100)70.0100.2110.384.474.970.969.671.778.9104.2124.1104.392.597.1113.1136143.5145.5140.193.4100.084.284.882.385.2102.697.8104.3

1T441Real effective rate % change43.110.1-23.5-11.3-5.3-1.93.010.132.019.1-15.9-11.35.016.420.75.21.4-3.7-33.47.1-15.80.8-3.03.520.4-4.66.6

1

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeEXTERNAL BALANCE ($ million)1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1B100Trade Balance-1158-2717-282311857786469130861246683041117219184161201080310579152491329910466-3352-5599-6753-6574-1199-6972642131212479433670403903400026080

1

1B110Merchandise exports124731524420132232762017321898270022563422348262243378934383314143162035793385554354546506477475299451140480115508658223603627308496475118490126840135270

1B120Merchandise imports-13631-17961-22955-22091-19395-15429-13916-13168-14044-15052-14605-18263-20611-21041-20544-25256-33079-49858-53346-59747-57714-49210-55783-55581-47240-48290-62806-78100-92840-109190

1

1B200Balance on Services, Income & Transfers-5878-7761-9983-12936-17090-13306-13045-12886-13417-12608-15009-15049-14535-11986-9096-13709-12155-14620-17903-23699-26842-24136-23528-25855-20839-20617-22025-27540-28751-30140

1

1B210Services & income receipts201627543143364732962443320336752783252030504442491942235205516366628708102731169112496111291300512602129011378615641144881490815119

1B212Exports of services6908781035142811481234145916761307149015292677288425513097300629863004271133893980325239543937455553026621738578158259

1B214Interest receipts64511571146114411987081246150291852775913041120872102581618022485361040173884222424472744214423071925198021002200

1B216Other services & income receipts68171996210759505014984975585037624619158001083134118743219395242854632565366045921620261777095512349934660

1

1B220Services & income payments-7966-10532-13295-16782-20378-15857-16419-16716-16287-15198-18153-19773-20288-17765-16544-20525-21405-27302-30622-37212-40796-36954-38054-40095-36130-37270-40933-44829-46630-47967

1B222Imports of services-1958-2856-3554-3701-3899-2852-2704-2690-2949-3076-3995-4167-5045-4921-4999-5915-7067-8895-9392-11547-11691-8406-9900-9288-7665-7261-9075-11397-13606-16148

1B224Interest payments-3342-5261-7457-10306-12550-10263-11449-11239-10054-9319-10591-10937-10868-9493-8278-9269-8140-10643-12389-13500-15321-17100-17096-17621-15275-15328-15289-15800-16000-16500

1B226Other services & income payments-2666-2415-2284-2775-3929-2742-2266-2787-3284-2803-3567-4669-4375-3351-3267-5341-6198-7764-8841-12165-13784-11448-11058-13186-13190-14681-16569-17632-17024-15318

1

1B230Transfers, net7217169199-810817115587709428283415562243165325883974244618221458168915211638239028673268280129712708

1B232Private transfers, net6912127189-101061611398911310726481315212234168226083984244618221458168915211638239028673268280129712708

1B234Official transfers, net354210221016-2-43-131821359-29-20-10000000000000

1

1B250Current Account Balance-7036-10478-12806-11751-16312-683741-420-5113-143641751071-3731-14076153-410-1689-17972-23502-30452-33416-25335-24225-23213-7718417711645128505250-4060

1

1B252% GDP-3.5-4.7-5.4-4.5-5.8-3.40.0-0.2-1.9-0.51.10.3-0.9-0.31.4-0.1-0.3-2.6-3.0-3.8-4.2-4.7-4.0-4.6-1.70.81.91.70.7-0.5

1

1F280Equity investment, net20472212153223262547135915491263186114829846562735353147406253338167158242132324429305732938421877163081197313890125001150013000

1F281Direct equity investment, net2055221415442312253113621551127420110872794713169-431443-380934276410032155132247228865282612051714716925811930100001050011500

1F282Portfolio equity investment, net-9-2-121416-3-2-11-1661189-571045781704444243995403579258101957170811231360159227151960250010001500

1

1F300International financial institutions346464356118933503434554453-1068-296-840-1155-1106-1034-1222-774-1971119186370767055-34558500117223548-6307-8184-7020-8400

1F310IMF00055121671788-65-616-1134-438-812-765-567-399-503-134-49-70-3346184108-66936718112475227-4363-7904-7328-9058

1F320IBRD22524125040593196535610043930-61-469-408-685-808-706-539278367245581805811337-342-47973225546

1F330Other multilateral creditors12122310623325368126364261123379-1315089663919111529221323662433971138-1337-1465-35383112

1100.080040517499.9753361518

1F340Official bilateral creditors18835786221269771748-82-93610-243853-1480-469493201751-561-1842271269163991-2154-494-4404-3668-1762-885-5981331

1

1F350Commercial banks659880768461811271787576-3132-12283271-4418182027356152344806415863601347111858-3961-132122249313-4797-5026-8469-569796-64

1F351Credit flows6619808084618126488310096-2667-10551413559196-1483-484110774375916264391347211858-3961-132122249313-4797-5026-8469-569796-64

1F354Interest arrears00002340-2340003430-3430333654641499-5700480-4999-79-100000000000

1F358Discounted debt transactions-21-4-0-14-45-180-465-173-300-4547-1712-3708-454-143-50-50000000000000

1

1F360Other private creditors6452401820-20-198-548920275189-2170-766-15582951577789471575-17769087132517601381437611168-49512879-3147240530265207

1F361Credit flows/interest arrears6452401820-20-198-548920275189-95085-1473150586690041581-1776908713251760168149897331810702879-3147800530265207

1F368Discounted debt transactions000000000-1220-851-1411-199-89-57-60000-3000-6136-2150-602000-560000

1

1F400Resident lending abroad, net182-451-1800790627-38053212259-4738-10293047-3997-11776-5773-457813873-4077-13087-22170-16433-10288-3898-1990-2275-3933-6989-8253-4014

1

1F450Errors and omissions, net-2592-655559-2979-6484-2966118271-10531180-827481126346734-200424315077-1800-3255-425613442061-1395-2232-17617120-0-0

1

1F480Monetary gold (- = increase)00011924010-286351201-15-50-541933-73-258-302-333335217-4664173573936-30000

1F500Reserves excluding gold (- = increase)29003243-8323355-374-70297433483-1215-1234-88761-635-14654-8349-6904-12638-86157496824777842308-3251-1944-11428-3629-6000-4000-3000

1-15500

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeEXTERNAL DEBT AND ASSETS ($ million)1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1D100Total External Debt481885604264853754338570096185106302109503114881123326115176137842143752146806156687170908175312181420199819212617244144242967237853228790228800235900220410204500202150201500

1

1D102% GDP24.125.327.628.630.447.350.949.142.841.930.433.834.833.935.138.932.025.825.826.331.045.339.545.049.646.636.426.625.322.5

1D105% Exports goods, services & income332.6311.4278.6280.2365.2395.2351.9373.6457.1429.0312.6355.0395.7409.6382.2390.9349.2328.6344.4328.7383.7410.8349.3323.0312.3271.6196.6153.8142.6134.0

1

1D202Medium/Long term4313949550536716146670569823729195396039102788107416101762968839491394374112750120823125206126670139554158650209684213606207697198892204324213422201263186177182659180938

1D203Short term5049649211182139671513111473143491276911286124801341436970383513882739270450065002654749602655396734460293613015629898244762247819147183231949120562

1D204Interest arrears0000023400695807343003989104891360546675079801000000000000

1

1By creditor:

1D300International financial institutions251328573308363847628024105441220114578166801529014179139541296011612105651057010828112491225720096268802233730391435425060546164364363017422139

1D310IMF000053226344217458244433877335923991824121980730618514168314805882917568378205312795124820159758981-0

1D320IBRD160218272069231927243655399753057576941186268316842781657238657564256199605258936406695974798192855086298450822986639352

1D330Other multilateral creditors91110301239131915061736233123142558339233053463370335763567368439614488512963328886110921310213821144611402512894122321253012788

1

1D340Official bilateral creditors664568777111760693029981111911348716148194101938619757217732377224064242872519525191225072400031776355473206430930276422575524661231822298324563

1

1D350Commercial banks355894227350159582336597072744798437767577027790137298874221764997252777574829443205838601518756321459717460824780145844415963736229132232572344123420

1D352Medium/long term311253636639562448515280059709661266556166520639496039656813510864915156569558406176436480111863728132202112163621186193601588510770705868646192

1D353Short term4464590710597133821317010695137171211410507116341259214072166141307716406220252580234236438654457831585258712616524658222372147718362162001657617228

1D354Interest arrears00000234000034300333688001029945995079801000000000000

1

1D360Other private creditors344040364275595656665436472461407128822475122968531526375474343753112107487106800114187113145132555134459135651121624116020122179120453121625125553131377

1D364(Interest arrears)0000000000046431025568000000000000000

1

1By borrower:

1

1D400Public sector641137952189033915509772398912911781212819467994627934379061489630951299366385704951921006819235893182110420119796114713

1D410Private sector1515210989101141169511510102518744790433377354034177849240491824146954724721579837210000010454295393868358552675707

1D420Deposit money banks6435567571566257564814167152528656156961677621472310543650044822514325475650580422864095340215315453057829990

1

1D600$ Exchange rate valuation effect78-328-918-1279-1008-1878400961818531-1248-26025971-226-344154022862282-3437-49603896-1629-5131-2350502193674195-354921471276

1D610% Total external debt in $86.687.287.785.685.282.981.272.466.665.262.765.861.963.062.563.174.975.777.277.173.771.073.270.466.264.464.667.069.572.6

1

1EXTERNAL ASSETS ($ million)

1

1A500Reserves excluding gold1182689665769660439284355115081060558036299697275357441803322521306043707049708583235082742580347963248835739376834911152740587406274065740

1A505% Imports goods, services, & income54.831.515.917.09.913.937.935.519.120.821.319.818.220.760.766.868.064.469.552.443.240.434.637.445.257.450.847.845.041.8

1A506Months imports goods, services & income6.63.81.92.01.21.74.64.32.32.52.62.42.22.57.38.08.27.78.36.35.24.84.24.55.46.96.15.75.45.0

1

1A510Gold value (market prices)3648721106876692064531014950117611201194172571676911461420177113648761403884528125136164199

1A512Gold (million ounces)1.611.701.882.200.150.541.473.102.432.432.732.984.572.022.232.933.714.583.693.034.603.171.890.460.440.450.45

1

1A600Deposit money banks' foreign assets2043181714892088209919242274198333793544477968648628957311763151962085518682203451955017621167541587816525126971923718851

1A700Deposits in BIS banks11241846651555153465411364172541659516774135361630520310234282437226843256453583760637713605983452117538194753947374404265709253205

1

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeDEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS ($ million)1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1P100Total debt service99861292214163178212078413203143391304814123138061643516304194111657713282173652072133602347434208355678736006980564326481046139455821504584755447940

1P105% Exports goods, services & income68.971.860.966.288.654.247.544.556.248.044.642.053.446.232.439.741.360.959.965.187.5124.5102.590.865.770.749.837.933.531.9

1

1P110Interest payments due3342526174571030612550102631144911239100549319105911093710868949382789269814010643123891350015321171001709617621152751532815289158001600016500


1

1P120Amortization paid66447661670675158234294028901809406944875844536785437084500480961258122959223542858340357565005270946705328294606640532346583155431440


1

1P204Average interest rate on external debt6.910.112.314.715.611.311.310.49.07.88.98.67.76.55.55.74.76.06.56.56.77.07.17.66.76.66.77.47.98.2

1P214Average real rate on external debt16.30.36.021.923.08.68.618.26.66.2-2.510.5-5.37.811.29.3-1.3-8.03.85.017.020.91.112.911.71.8-3.64.17.48.6

1

1AMORTIZATION19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

1

1R100Total principal repayments due22354285834035657650527094670537729460664053239658315543144015511134031048681868248

1

1R110IMF703321197766930464612447436379047328905800000

1R120IBRD1222104999495288782810631633147910277757546857886768001737

1R130Other multilateral creditors4644104866865821029145526192365135312371188116111811117959892

1R140Official bilateral creditors379322244605764979034603418443083992396536781399983844752509410

1R150Commercial banks47336717182532293714985132341457213094142551471993671002470434825253611561276

1R160Other private creditors120721814915997234502165927011118091196514078106909169901856395765540547623933

1

1WORLD ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1W101Industrial Country real GDP % change4.173.653.501.780.302.564.443.472.943.384.533.893.152.101.771.092.902.242.963.212.292.953.391.501.041.763.022.452.602.63

1W204$ LIBOR (six-month, average)9.2012.1514.0316.7213.609.9311.298.646.857.308.139.278.326.083.933.435.076.105.595.855.545.546.653.731.881.231.793.704.614.78

1W304Brent spot oil price ($/bbl, average)14.332.137.936.733.429.828.727.614.418.415.018.223.720.019.4117.0015.8317.0620.4519.1212.7217.7028.3124.4125.0028.8538.3055.0060.0055.00

1

1W410SDR/$, end-period0.780.760.790.860.940.961.010.920.830.720.740.770.700.710.720.720.690.670.700.740.710.730.770.790.750.680.650.680.660.65

1W420Euro(ECU)/$, end-period (ECU 1978-98)0.750.700.770.921.051.221.391.150.960.790.840.860.730.770.810.890.820.770.800.900.850.991.111.120.980.810.750.800.770.76

1W430Yen/$, end-period196.2240.6209.8218.9265.1234.4248.0202.8162.3128.6123.6143.7133.6128.1124.03109.70100.12101.82113.77129.38117.62102.68112.21127.36122.27107.94103.84110.00105.00101.00

1

1W505World price commodities % change21.106.10-10.32-9.715.14-2.53-10.562.4411.0521.48-4.68-4.01-7.84-2.00-1.5410.999.18-1.53-2.95-14.50-6.864.52-4.170.867.0918.645.19-8.28-4.35

1W515World price manufactured goods % change15.28.50.2-4.3-4.6-1.9-2.28.410.14.31.87.15-2.121.82-5.062.889.22-1.83-6.22-5.32-1.48-3.82-3.711.0410.538.17-0.912.063.52

1

1W603Export market volume % change5.65.01.93.3-2.23.811.42.26.37.710.47.86.15.15.365.0411.7410.707.2210.214.346.6312.79-1.013.476.1610.435.876.666.58

1W615Trading partners' $ prices % change16.111.1-18.1-6.71.21.82.813.910.66.0-1.112.36.17.141.073.435.450.38-2.570.191.03-2.08-0.14-10.0212.047.493.853.930.00

1

1COUNTRY TRADE BY COMMODITY

1

1Exports:

1C100Soybeans ($ million)2564256625401640232530463676285420312696307411463820101824522178159321882726303242905395

1C102Volume units (million tons)10.910.113.08.611.811.415.94.12.03.74.25.43.53.68.39.38.911.515.716.019.919.2

1C103Volume % change-7.328.7-33.837.2-3.439.0-74.3-50.484.912.728.4-35.44.4128.711.4-4.029.236.11.924.5-3.2

1

1C104Unit price ($/ton)235254195191197267237208205208217212217274278200171197187190236189

1C105Unit price % change8.0-23.1-2.43.335.6-11.3-12.2-1.61.44.5-2.32.226.51.5-28.2-14.615.4-4.81.424.1-20.0

1

1C200Coffee ($ million)2325285726322347218522221781125314791112128225582426171927462332223015591208119513021750

1C202Volume (million 60 kg bags)17.819.719.610.818.817.118.116.420.419.318.616.915.016.017.719.925.318.624.129.826.327.1

1C203Volume % change10.7-0.5-44.974.1-9.15.6-9.424.7-5.1-3.8-9.2-11.26.910.312.327.4-26.529.523.9-11.73.1

1

1C204Unit price ($/lb)0.9891.0981.0181.6470.8800.9840.7460.6300.5960.4720.5661.2031.2100.9741.4981.0720.8240.6890.5010.4960.5170.559

1C205Unit price % change11.0-7.461.8-46.511.8-24.2-15.6-5.4-20.819.9112.40.6-19.553.8-28.4-23.1-16.4-27.2-1.04.38.0

1

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeGOVERNMENT & MONETARY SECTORS1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1GOVERNMENT SECTOR (real million)

1

1G100Public sector borrowing requirement0.00000010.00000020.00000030.00000110.0000030.0000090.0000320.0001440.0001510.00.00.43.216.13299.39216.093921470114574253232682235628439806427896161479030471444837049627

1G102Public sector borrowing % GDP6.88.67.212.715.821.023.028.611.332.356.883.129.626.846.765.426.97.35.96.17.55.83.63.64.65.12.72.62.6

1

1G150Public sector non-interest balance % GDP0.03.13.53.73.94.34.6

1

1G200General government borrowing0.00010.00010.00110.01160.28782.20513.87217.27189.07735938513410224928965534531533866141560615228915661015

1G202General government borrowing % GDP19.28.925.639.667.620.123.033.951.022.26.05.35.77.25.53.53.54.65.73.4

1

1G300Central government borrowing0.000060.000040.000310.000600.003510.007920.038020.191230.239272.032790.008290.21711.26184.16112.173365.03519015430199462291251521225651574017302100296215327033

1G302Central government borrowing % GDP4.81.66.86.719.118.627.112.86.217.828.251.011.56.917.523.910.12.42.62.65.62.31.41.40.74.01.5

1

1G350Central government non-interest balance % GDP0.82.11.91.82.42.53.0

1

1G400Public sector debt450883518027548603626891771039815512940218126598613551311427419

1G402Public sector debt % GDP69.866.563.068.679.274.178.494.187.180.7

1G410Resident- held35841842071145295751180459092163495272399887587210047941115709

1G420Non-resident-held924659731695646115087180118180560216220390114350337311710

1

1MONETARY SECTOR (real million)

1

1M100Net foreign assets0.0000000-0.0000000-0.0000001-0.0000005-0.000002-0.000009-0.000025-0.000074-0.000198-0.001299-0.012796-0.18161-1.618-21.31-148.45-3687.715923264793410719145-1349-1623188974825-23590910837839

1

1M200Domestic credit00000000000.0389070.68419.67551.97755.3520893218406272866331145397224545191555386580934722922858230929500979216

1M201Domestic credit % change8581951091791793021658.31314.3437.21353.42665.9945.424.921.420.037.31.94.624.418.78.35.3

1

1M210Claims on the public sector-0.000000-0.0000000.00000020.00000050.00000120.0000054000.0188300.37526.05431.85403.919224417003680790375119069199646190589258396363169463310480481476472

1M250Claims on the private sector0.0000000.0000010.0000010.0000020.0000040.0000090.0000260.0000960042035111669176706236059240770278155345545364797322538359753495061466190502744

1

1M300Other liabilities006123018173109715131610176850191350296799289755325538419234451691541978543606

1

1M400Money + quasi-money (M2)0.00000020.00000030.00000050.00000100.00000190.0000040.0000160.0000680.000270.000830.012570.178702.5118.51305.89032124614167735188402225019247043264008274293308513382949396630473449

1M401M2 % change4673.161.488.184.0135.8270.1322.5289.2213.71406.41322.11306.0636.71551.92854.01279.734.612.319.49.86.93.912.524.13.619.4

1M411M2 velocity % change-0-4.828.95.211.9-1.6-11.0-15.2-31.90.4-53.51.983.3-25.4-35.6-25.579.537.57.3-6.4-4.4-0.38.8-3.2-9.511.6-4.8

1

1M500Money (M1)0.00000020.00000030.00000050.00000090.00000140.0000030.0000090.0000390.000170.000520.002620.037700.91744.85652.5411132554032094416835099954824622947407883060107209111542131152

1M501M1 % change36.574.969.782.668.5102.7204.1334.3330.1215.4401.01337.02333.6429.4981.82017.82195.425.729.922.37.513.618.912.129.14.017.6

1

1

1M805Consumer prices % chng average (INPC index)38.852.782.8105.698.0142.0196.7228.5145.4229.4682.41386.02863.9434.3986.01973.42363.673.815.56.03.84.86.27.510.217.06.35.62.83.5

1M815Consumer prices % chng end-period (INPC index)234768610110217820925064432.7952.31929.51585.2482.71149.32540.01112.922.09.14.32.58.45.39.414.710.46.14.03.53.0

1

1FINANCIAL MARKETS

1

1K101Stock Market Index, LC terms % change1762.5308.32315.91015.65437.61059.7-1.363.844.8-33.5151.9-10.7-11.0-17.097.317.8

1K111Stock Market Index, $ terms % change24.1-72.7288.6-3.7111.259.6-13.953.234.8-38.570.2-18.3-25.0-45.5141.328.2

1K120Equity market capitalization ($ billion)31.144.115.443.645.399.4189.1147.6216.9255.4160.9228.5225.5186.2126.8234.6330.3

1K130Equity market turnover ($ billion)18.016.85.613.420.557.4109.579.2112.1203.3146.690.890.064.648.268.0104.6

1

1K200Overnight interest rate488512117319725428211235310582407115353715493052115456.423.942.031.226.317.617.519.123.417.5

1K230Real overnight rate-3.11.47.237.622.819.316.3-13.737.548.068.7-57.719.251.952.0-49.1-10.07.334.026.520.410.79.38.15.510.6

1

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeSTRUCTURAL FACTORS197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

1

1MERCHANDISE TRADE

1

1S100Merchandise exports ($ million)124731524420132232762017321898270022563422348262243378934383314143162035793385554354546506477475299451140480115508658223603627308496475

1Export composition % total:

1S102Manufactured goods39.345.846.250.249.051.655.156.958.459.262.763.762.564.866.567.371.164.775.774.173.673.777.073.571.770.770.2

1S103Primary products60.754.253.849.851.048.444.943.141.640.837.336.337.535.233.532.728.935.324.325.926.426.323.026.528.329.329.8

1

1Export destination % total:

1S112U.S.22.719.317.417.720.523.128.627.128.227.925.824.324.419.919.920.220.518.819.517.819.322.624.324.725.723.121.1

1S113Japan5.15.86.15.26.56.55.65.56.86.46.97.17.58.16.56.15.96.86.45.84.34.64.53.43.53.22.9

1

1S115Exports % GDP6.26.98.68.87.210.812.911.58.38.98.98.47.67.38.08.88.06.66.26.66.58.99.211.513.114.516.0

1

1S120Merchandise imports ($ million)136311796122955220911939515429139161316814044150521460518263206112104120544252563307949858533465974757714492105578355581472404829062806

1Import composition % total:

1S122Petroleum imports30.835.842.949.852.752.848.441.118.925.621.920.623.019.420.217.412.19.411.19.47.18.711.411.313.213.616.4

1S123Capital goods26.121.019.118.216.916.215.518.824.726.328.726.728.828.421.520.122.923.024.226.927.927.524.426.624.621.419.3

1

1Import origin % total:

1S132U.S.21.118.318.617.816.317.018.221.523.021.221.421.521.423.624.123.723.423.722.223.023.724.1233.623.522.120.118.3

1S133Argentina9.212.412.211.212.713.413.911.812.311.210.09.78.9

1

1S135Imports % GDP6.88.19.88.46.97.66.75.95.25.13.94.55.04.94.65.86.07.16.97.47.39.29.310.910.39.510.4

1

1REAL GDP BY ORIGIN: 1985 = 100

1

1S210Agriculture (11.1% GDP in 1985)88.595.499.891.190.790.693.8100.083.6104.790.7109.7105.6108.5114.3113.2122.3127.3131.2130.2132.7143.7146.7155.2163.8171.1180.2

1S220Mining (3.0% GDP in 1985)96.3100.4101.187.495.8103.4116.9100.092.988.989.9107.4110.3111.0112.2112.9118.2122.6130.0136.8147.5148.6164.0170.1181.5186.8185.4

1S230Manufacturing (31.6% GDP in 1985)97.998.6100.782.792.186.998.0100.0102.793.289.2111.7101.198.794.7102.3110.2112.4114.8118.4113.9111.4117.5118.4122.6124.0133.5

1S240Construction (5.4% GDP in 1985)95.893.598.384.889.077.389.6100.0106.091.187.5118.6107.0103.396.5101.1107.2106.7112.3120.9122.5118.0121.0117.8115.5109.5115.8

1S250Services (48.9% GDP in 1985)99.5101.1102.391.695.793.197.9100.0101.596.795.8118.1117.2119.2119.2123.4128.4130.1133.0136.4137.9140.7146.0148.6151.0151.9157.6

1

1INVESTMENT AND SAVING (% GNP)

1

1S305Gross domestic investment25.023.424.924.521.213.513.320.320.023.225.427.822.218.618.919.821.220.921.321.921.620.922.222.020.620.522.0

1S315Gross national saving21.518.519.420.015.110.013.520.318.022.726.928.121.317.019.518.820.018.018.117.717.216.017.917.419.321.124.0

1S325Net foreign balance-3.5-4.9-5.5-4.5-6.1-3.50.20.0-2.0-0.51.50.3-0.9-1.60.7-1.0-1.1-2.9-3.2-4.2-4.4-4.9-4.3-4.6-1.30.62.0

1

1POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT

1

1S400Population (million)113.3116.1118.6121.2123.9126.6129.3132.0134.7137.3139.8142.3147.6149.9152.2154.5156.8159.0161.2163.5165.7167.9170.1172.4174.6176.9179.2

1S401Population % change2.52.52.22.22.22.22.12.12.01.91.81.83.71.61.51.51.51.41.41.41.31.31.31.31.31.31.3

1

1S411Per capita real GDP % change2.34.27.4-6.5-1.6-5.53.13.67.61.7-1.91.5-6.4-0.5-2.03.34.32.81.31.8-1.2-0.53.0-0.00.6-0.83.6

1S420Per capita $ GDP176719051983217422721605161616891991214327072866279828912934284034934428480949404754319735372949263928593376

1

1S431Employment % change2.62.22.9-11.2-5.7-5.1-0.28.510.00.43.02.9-4.0-2.5-6.3-4.1-0.9-1.7-1.1-0.4-2.7-0.93.12.73.62.96.5

1S440Recorded unemployment rate (%) (Change of serie in 02)6.86.47.27.96.36.77.15.33.63.73.83.34.34.85.75.35.14.65.45.77.67.67.16.210.510.99.6

1

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeEXTERNAL BORROWING1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1N100Net external borrowing-1805-14612339-71271067-3920193710469127325709382721836177582763316494029487-2430-2268-19685-12362-4496-1926

1

1N110IMF00055121671788-65-616-1134-438-812-765-567-399-503-134-49-70-3346184108-66936718112475227-4363-7904-7328-9058

1N111Disbursements0005512167178800049100018000000463960850671815893176740000

1N113Repayments000000-65-616-1134-929-812-765-567-579-503-134-49-70-33-21-1977-66930-4646-12447-4363-7904-7328-9058

1N115Interest arrears00000000000000000000000000000

14528

1N120IBRD18922524125040593196535610043930-61-469-408-685-808-706-539278367246581805811337-342-47973225546

1N121Disbursements2753023433876231204130076516199151009819782840581471640838150014161240153316921639140012911000110010001300

1N123Repayments-86-77-102-137-218-274-335-409-615-875-979-880-1251-1248-1266-1279-1346-1377-1222-1049-994-952-887-828-1063-1633-1479-1027-775-754


15566

1N130Other multilateral26364261123379-1315089663919111529221323662433971138-1337-1465-35383112

1N131Disbursements46728131843336539030343449949381713751939269930523015200015931282900100013201300

1N132(Rescheduled interest)00000000000000000000000

1N133Repayments-204-217-292-321-332-311-434-384-410-427-426-464-410-486-686-582-1029-1455-2619-2365-1353-1237-1188

1N134Short-term credits, net00000000000000000000000


1N138Discounted debt transactions00000000000000000000000

1Amortz.396536781399

1N140Official bilateral-82-93610-243853-1480-469493201751-561-1842271269163991-2154-494-4404-3668-1762-885-5981331

1N141Disbursements738315784870115662451546441501230017671602458711254113225999391012804401430258025802580

1N142(Rescheduled interest)0034828368200380256600000000000000

1N143Repayments-820-1251-774-1113-1391-3132-2669-1150-1349-1849-2928-3793-2224-4605-7649-7903-4603-4184-4308-3992-3965-3678-1399

1N144Short-term credits, net0000898-161135050300600350350267318-250199-1500200800500500150

1N145Interest arrears000019011901672-3051000000000000000

1N148Discounted debt transactions00000000000000000000000

1Amortz.14719936710024

1N150Commercial banks-3132-12283271-4418182027356152344806415863601347111858-3961-132122249313-4797-5026-8469-569796-64

1N151Disbursements006037009682082858221563739953498460175842739215225167851294712370906889891112191219322

1N153Repayments-66-453-423-650-672-1691-1130-501-1910-1897-7232-4733-6717-18253-22937-14985-13234-14572-13094-14255-14719-9367-10024

1N154Short-term credits, net-2601-602504509-100036133575723366083229745991-13100-5500450600-2595-1000-3203-2099342638

1N155Interest arrears003430-3430333654641499-5700480-4999-79-100000000000

1N158Discounted debt transactions-465-173-300-4547-1712-3708-454-143-50-50000000000000

1Amortz.1069091699018

1N160Other private creditors855251126-2170-766-15582951577789471575-17769087132517601381437611168-49512879-3147240530265207

1N161Disbursements3068551042902903938242461139650756613482256232683540379299673080629279143781459812245178001150013500

1N163Repayments-245-918-989-1852-1281-1392-1037-1125-2644-6928-10948-12072-18149-15997-23450-21659-27011-11809-11965-14078-10690-9169-9018

1N164Short-term credits, net7943147300461181710642067943-4310-4464-7361-67802977501050-1500246-1315895695725

1N165Interest arrears0000464-154-55-187-6800000000000000

1N168Discounted debt transactions000-1220-851-1411-199-89-57-60000-3000-6136-2150-602000-560000

1

1e = estimate, f = IIF forecast

1I110IMF00006820433638232124927026990789914105214633361334677572162384631311214

1I120IBRD164179184199239339392558690746684734600628604537491416380378428464533459377747730739788

1I130Other multilateral creditors5881106781139416525124187280375407391417466531641744926103112271331151116211178110010841108

1I140Official bilateral creditors395510625677606665717698773112215982101183914191312174920401810182521022537292418051137862956136315251611

1I150Commercial banks4201607785251064985239551902475596640767260694084560942654274154216833307371249013964311186604445101727932415336195291

1I160Other private creditors443609866948714597606606654714203733059481497256338315888621068377013867790345159725515382313460859026488

1

1e = estimate, f = IIF forecast56384316

Sheet2


1E101Real GDP % change4.86.89.7-4.50.5-3.55.35.89.83.6-0.13.3-2.91.0-0.54.95.94.22.73.30.10.84.41.31.90.54.93.54.03.7





1B100Trade Balance-1158-2717-282311857786469130861246683041117219184161201080310579152491329910466-3352-5599-6753-6574-1199-6972642131212479433670403903400026080

1B250Current Account Balance-7036-10478-12806-11751-16312-683741-420-5113-143641751071-3731-14076153-410-1689-17972-23502-30452-33416-25335-24225-23213-7718417711645128505250-4060

1D102% GDP24.125.327.628.630.447.350.949.142.841.930.433.834.833.935.138.932.025.825.826.331.045.339.545.049.646.636.426.625.322.5

1M805Consumer prices % chng average (INPC index)38.852.782.8105.698.0142.0196.7228.5145.4229.4682.41386.02863.9434.3986.01973.42363.673.815.56.03.84.86.27.510.217.06.35.62.83.5

Chart1

5.795236250330.99468111883.7855387466

6.071391514345.26627667474.8476975741

8.313502250139.52862794876.2209915746

10.98574085645.00110055877.4898155482

8.594234530949.648745572310.2008732074

15.647795898546.645762517716.9590764769

19.227031246236.44346000566.2704438811

19.016489586426.55611915065.5644725034

&A

Page &P

()

()

GDP ()

Sheet3

1111111111

CodeE101T103T410T430T440B100B250D102M805

DOMESTIC ECONOMY & EXTERNAL TRADEReal GDP % changeGoods exports: volume % changeExchange rate, average (Real/$)Nominal effective rate (2000 = 100)Real effective rate (2000 = 100)Trade BalanceCurrent Account Balance% GDPConsumer prices % chng average (INPC index)

19784.8213.50465116280-1158-703624.072228955438.8

19796.766493645211.34358262660-2716.62384-10477.6238425.335839832552.6634100954

19809.712854114524.66635433640635775394060.76969.9837775658-2823-1280627.567938540582.8127380771

1981-4.463458802922.866023669901079664073842.37100.16990300391185-1175128.6332232839105.6092682114

19820.5498675731-7.74296383590.0000000001743069269000.588110.2623265373778-1631230.438515293697.982387599

1983-3.46069946585.91513649760.0000000002346783169777.87684.38287270776469-683747.3337253844141.9785710129

19845.256565250320.32126329650.0000000007129278576669.97174.8757421906130864150.8809557372196.7440325597

19855.75070826421.62850507630.000000002350200500314.840270.937647727112466-42049.1103775487228.5468818167

19869.7929818107-14.68647871340.00000000519584367527.642469.55467566948304-511342.8360973363145.4166666667

19873.622114607415.53644551230.00000001438688583093.1425571.663890041711172-143641.9048744327229.4057724958

1988-0.108932283115.38325910240.00000009541674556004.2419178.914478476719184417530.4295081772682.3626430265

19893.27947418873.50973466350.0000010304213906618.9227104.205603370716120107133.79717081231386.0336963657

1990-2.8886310905-19.65873442290.00002483659313610.97107169124.075027328810803.09454-3731.4054634.81024310112863.904539642

19911.031.88260741970.00014785781378218.57116736104.33489696310579-140733.8809636102434.2846995598

1992-0.519.40573615340.0016409452152996.94812008992.508000059115249615335.0859743811985.9999954892

19934.911.40814054360.032126973911412.206770767897.130324974413299-41038.94960956141973.4320198294

19945.96.46095883980.6376287879381.7730456472113.072244750410466-168932.0109335262363.5720490303

19954.22-7.2937045440.9178333333175.26062127136.443441531-3352-1797225.768431449173.7728509285

19962.660.08561131051.0048333333164.1196217517143.4820991732-5599-2350225.778410545515.5182159699

19973.279.3703452891.0780833333160.6943525644145.5244443888-6753.2-30452.226.32447482585.9916132725

0.135.79523625031.1605833333151.4052325814140.1133840515-6574.4-33415.930.99468111883.7855387466

0.816.07139151431.814333333397.439590211693.3559440468-1199.3-25334.845.26627667474.8476975741

4.368.31350225011.8301666667100100-697-24224.539.52862794876.2209915746

1.310.9857408562.357816666779.7933238284.16330877342642-2321345.00110055877.4898155482

1.938.59423453092.92082576.662377504484.832001707313121.1-7717.949.648745572310.2008732074

0.5415.64779589853.077124166765.2510732582.282472954824794.44177.446.645762517716.9590764769

4.9419.22703124622.925267454565.009246632885.185386506933669.51164536.44346000566.2704438811

3.519.01648958642.473871262776.3996411903102.561834711340389.771635414212850.045352750226.55611915065.5644725034

2006f46.54522216982.566949740872.89708427497.813085964634000.21965333965249.525119435225.31684777772.8395119653

2007f3.77.09730084382.450583746375.9278148847104.268062523526080.0869411264-4059.547089559822.54630225063.5357658599

Sheet1

1IIF DATABASE: BRAZIL12-Sep-05

Page #


1

1DOMESTIC ECONOMY (1980 prices, millions)

1

1E100Real GDP ( real )0.00390.00410.00450.00430.00430.00420.00440.00470.00510.00530.00530.00550.00530.00540.00540.00560.00590.00620.00640.00660.00660.00660.00690.00700.00710.00720.00750.00780.00810.0084

1E101Real GDP % change4.86.89.7-4.50.5-3.55.35.89.83.6-0.13.3-2.91.0-0.54.95.94.22.73.30.10.84.41.31.90.54.93.54.03.7

1

1E201Domestic demand % change4.56.77.6-7.61.0-6.72.45.114.41.2-2.13.5-1.33.0-2.56.28.29.43.54.8-0.5-3.94.4-0.8-2.4-2.12.92.73.84.0

1E211Consumption % change8.76.3-6.03.7-2.92.22.812.51.7-1.44.00.54.5-1.86.27.29.83.94.0-0.6-3.34.3-1.1-2.0-1.51.51.93.43.4

1E231Gross fixed capital % change5.43.99.2-12.4-6.7-16.11.28.823.0-1.1-4.81.2-9.4-4.7-6.66.314.37.31.29.3-0.3-7.34.41.1-4.2-5.110.97.06.07.0

1

1E301Exports of goods and services % change13.39.322.721.3-9.214.322.07.0-10.619.213.15.1-5.0-4.816.511.74.0-2.00.611.23.79.211.111.27.99.018.018.09.07.5

1E311Imports of goods and services % change4.68.20.6-12.3-6.0-17.4-3.00.128.6-2.9-1.18.911.111.14.526.820.430.75.417.8-0.3-14.711.41.2-12.3-1.714.323.011.010.5

1E322Change in net foreign balance % GDP-0.5-0.31.73.3-0.43.22.91.0-3.62.51.80.1-1.7-1.81.9-1.0-2.0-4.9-0.9-1.60.74.80.02.14.22.52.31.10.60.2

1

1E500Nominal GDP (real million)0.0000010.0000020.0000050.0000090.0000180.0000430.0001400.000500.001330.00420.02940.42610.9760.29641.01409734920564619277888787074391418897384611012551198736134602815561821769202190504420496582190125

1E501Nominal GDP % change45.664.8108.097.8106.0132.0229.3258.1164.9215.0600.41349.02477.1449.4963.22099.42377.185.020.511.85.06.513.18.912.315.613.77.77.66.9

1E505GDP deflator % change38.254.489.6107.1104.9140.3212.8238.6141.2204.0601.21303.02553.7443.8968.51996.62239.177.617.48.34.95.78.47.510.215.08.34.03.53.0

1E510Nominal GDP ($ billion)200221235263282203209223268294379408413433447439548704775808788537602508461506605770798894

1

1E600Nominal GNP (real million)0.0000010.0000020.0000040.0000090.0000170.0000400.0001320.000480.001270.00400.02810.41210.6758.68625.51370434240463603876665985330789294793973910686581153452129408415010321710711184164719877552127585

1E601Nominal GNP % change144.064.1106.996.0103.9130.3229.8259.4167.3217.3597.11363.52489.9450.2965.82091.02398.685.820.511.34.65.213.77.912.216.014.07.77.97.0

1E610Nominal GNP ($ billion)195540215159228253267191197211256283295400429397381427537693763792769518584489443488585744774868

1

1E801Industrial production % change6.17.09.2-10.20.0-5.27.18.510.90.9-3.22.9-8.9-2.6-3.77.46.71.93.34.6-1.0-2.24.8-0.52.60.16.2

1E901Agricultural production % change10.19.6-3.3-1.88.513.2-10.115.3-1.72.8-3.72.85.4-1.05.54.13.1-0.81.38.32.25.85.54.55.3

1

1EXTERNAL TRADE

1


1T105Goods exports: unit value % change-8.09.85.9-5.9-6.12.52.5-6.62.21.611.7-1.713.7-1.2-5.2-3.36.115.22.61.5-8.8-11.55.9-4.8-4.54.710.73.20.5-0.4

1

1T203Goods imports: volume % change7.110.0-0.2-3.5-8.7-17.5-4.4-1.025.0-2.00.69.91.26.9-1.330.922.336.31.3-2.54.4-6.28.50.0-12.1-3.717.920.816.315.5

1T205Goods imports: unit value % change6.919.828.0-0.3-3.8-3.6-5.6-4.4-14.79.3-3.613.811.5-4.5-1.0-6.17.110.65.614.9-7.5-9.14.5-0.4-3.36.110.33.02.21.8

1

1T305Terms of trade % change-13.9-8.4-17.3-5.6-2.36.38.6-2.319.7-7.115.8-13.62.03.5-4.23.0-1.04.2-2.9-11.7-1.4-2.61.4-4.4-1.2-1.40.40.2-1.7-2.2

1

1T400Exchange rate, end-period (Real/$)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0040.1170.850.971.041.121.211.791.962.323.532.922.722.392.662.22


1



1T441Real effective rate % change43.110.1-23.5-11.3-5.3-1.93.010.132.019.1-15.9-11.35.016.420.75.21.4-3.7-33.47.1-15.80.8-3.03.520.4-4.66.6

1

1f = IIF forecast

1CodeEXTERNAL BALANCE ($ million)1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005f2006f2007f

1

1B100Trade Balance-1158-2717-282311857786469130861246683041117219184161201080310579152491329910466-3352-5599-6753-6574-1199-6972642131212479433670403903400026080

1

1B110Merchandise exports124731524420132232762017321898270022563422348262243378934383314143162035793385554354546506477475299451140480115508658223603627308496475118490126840135270

1B120Merchandise imports-13631-17961-22955-22091-19395-15429-13916-13168-14044-15052-14605-18263-20611-21041-20544-25256-33079-49858-53346-59747-57714-49210-55783-55581-47240-48290-62806-78100-92840-109190

1

1B200Balance on Services, Income & Transfers-5878-7761-9983-12936-17090-13306-13045-12886-13417-12608-15009-15049-14535-11986-9096-13709-12155-14620-17903-23699-26842-24136-23528-25855-20839-20617-22025-27540-28751-30140

1

1B210Services & income receipts201627543143364732962443320336752783252030504442491942235205516366628708102731169112496111291300512602129011378615641144881490815119

1B212Exports of services6908781035142811481234145916761307149015292677288425513097300629863004271133893980325239543937455553026621738578158259

1B214Interest receipts64511571146114411987081246150291852775913041120872102581618022485361040173884222424472744214423071925198021002200

1B216Other services & income receipts68171996210759505014984975585037624619158001083134118743219395242854632565366045921620261777095512349934660

1

1B220Services & income payments-7966-10532-132

Documents

2006 년 세계경제 전망