Reprinted from TR News 217November–December 2001

2002Critical Issues

in Transportation

Transportation Research BoardTHE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

The Transportation Research Board is a division of theNational Research Council, which serves as an independentadviser to the federal government on scientific and technicalquestions of national importance. The National ResearchCouncil, jointly administered by the National Academy ofSciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and theInstitute of Medicine, brings the resources of the entire scien-tific and technical community to bear on national problemsthrough its volunteer advisory committees.

Because transportation is important to the U.S. economy and to indi-vidual well-being, the Executive Committee of the TransportationResearch Board (TRB) periodically identifies and assesses critical issues

in transportation to

• Direct attention to the issues,• Facilitate debate on how to address the issues, and• Encourage research to resolve the issues.

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, have disrupted a benefit thatAmericans have taken for granted—the ability to travel conveniently,safely,andat reasonable cost. Much of the success and efficiency of the U.S. transporta-tion system is attributable to easy and convenient access by travelers and ship-pers—yet these attributes also make the system vulnerable to terrorist attack.Greater attention must focus on improving transportation system security;research must play an important role.

However,we must not neglect other issues—also outlined here—that arecritical to maintaining and increasing the levels of transportation service onwhich Americans depend.

John M. SamuelsSenior Vice President, Operations Planning and Support, Norfolk Southern Corporation

Chairman, TRB Executive Committee

2002Critical Issues

in Transportation

Historically, the U.S. transportation sys-tem has been among the best in theworld, providing a remarkable level ofmobility and access to goods and ser-

vices. Moreover, the system’s quality and pervasive-ness have been influential in shaping developmentpatterns both locally and nationally.

In many respects, however, the system hasbecome the victim of its own success. The affluencethat the system has helped to create has resulted ina demand for travel and access that is increasinglydifficult to meet, as witnessed by the growing con-gestion and delays that characterize all transportationmodes. Although this congestion may abate in theshort term, the problems will return.

In addition, the system’s expanding infrastruc-ture has intruded increasingly on neighborhoodsand the environment. Society’s responses—or fail-ure to respond—to the complex challenges willhave fundamental consequences for the nation’sprosperity and quality of life, as well as for the envi-ronment.

Transportation System’sImportanceIn a country as vast as the United States, it is easy tolose sight of the tremendous size of the transporta-tion infrastructure and the magnitude of its effects:

• The scale and use of the system are extraordinary(see Table 1). All modes of transportation combinedaccount for more than 4.6 trillion passenger-miles oftravel annually. The value of the goods shipped eachyear totals nearly $8 trillion, and transportation’s con-tribution to the global nature of the U.S. economy is

reflected in the $1.5 trillion in international cargo mov-ing through U.S. ports by various modes annually.

• Transportation is a major component (11 per-cent) of the gross domestic product (GDP)—roughlyequivalent to the shares of health care and food (seeFigure 1). It also is a major component of familyexpenditures (19 percent), second only to expendi-tures for housing.

• Individuals spend an average of one hour eachday traveling for work, shopping, medical appoint-

TABLE 1 Scale and Use of the U.S. Transportation System

Mode Components Annual Output (1997)

Highway 3,921,000 road miles 4,130,200,000,000 passenger-miles

1,051,000,000,000 ton-miles

Air 5,352 public airports 463,000,000,000 passenger-miles

Urban Transit Bus: 156,000 route miles 20,400,000,000 passenger-miles

Rail: 6,600 route miles 21,300,000,000 passenger-miles

Rail 120,000 freight rail miles 1,348,900,000,000 ton-miles

Water 20,000 port terminals 707,410,000,000 ton-miles

Oil Pipeline 200,500 pipeline miles 617,000,000,000 ton-miles

SOURCE: Table 1-38. National Transportation Statistics, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1999.

FIGURE 1 U.S. gross domestic product by majorsocietal function, 1998. (SOURCE: Bureau ofTransportation Statistics, U.S. Department ofTransportation.)

Other30.9%

Housing24.8%

Education7.0%

Health Care14.5%

Food11.6%

Transportation11.2%

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ments, socializing, and recreation. Although the pop-ulation has grown only by 20 percent in 18 years, tripmaking per capita has grown by 50 percent, as hasthe distance traveled (see Figure 2).

• The nation’s inventories, which once resided inwarehouses, are now almost constantly in motion intrucks, rail cars, and seagoing containers. Any sig-nificant disruption in the flow of this inventorywould have dramatic negative consequences for theU.S. economy. The system moves more than 15,000ton-miles of freight per capita each year.

As the globalization of the economy continues,U.S. national and international competitiveness willdepend on the ability to move people, goods, ser-vices, and information quickly, cheaply, and safely.

Critical IssuesImportant challenges face users and providers oftransportation services; the TRB Executive Commit-tee has identified 14 issues as most critical (see boxon this page). Many of these issues are interrelated,but each is described separately as follows.

The transportation system is vulnerable toattacks by terrorists and saboteurs.The U.S. transportation system was designed to servean open society and a market economy. The empha-sis is on efficiency, speed, and reliability. The fea-tures that tie transportation to the way of life in theUnited States, however, also make the system vul-nerable to attack. Redundancies in the system makeit unlikely that the physical infrastructure could berendered inoperable for any length of time.

Terrorists, however, act to cause mayhem and suf-fering. Transportation becomes a target by concen-trating people in aircraft and terminals and onvehicles that travel through tunnels and over bridges.The tragedies of September 11, 2001, demand thatsecurity must become a central goal of transporta-tion. Achieving that goal will be difficult and costly,but necessary. New technologies, operations, andstrategies for deterrence are needed.

Long-distance milesper capita (annually)

Long-distance tripsper capita (annually)

Local person-milesper capita

Local trips per capita

Resident population

Percentage increase

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

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CriticalIssues 2002Security

Safety

Congestion

InstitutionalConstraints

Environment

Energy

Aging Infrastructure

Finance

Human Resources

Industry Consolidation

Aging Population

Equity

Impact ofTelecommunications

Barriers to Innovation

FIGURE 2 Percentage increase in population and travel in the United States, 1977–1995. (SOURCE: Table 5-1 inChanging Face of Transportation, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2000.)

Security must become a central goal of transportation.

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Fatalities and injuries from transportationcrashes are a major public health problem. Fatality and serious injury rates associated withtransportation have declined steadily. Yet more than40,000 people die each year in transportationcrashes; 95 percent of these crashes occur on thenation’s highways (see Figure 3); additionally, morethan 3 million people are seriously injured. About 85percent of highway deaths claim motor vehicle occu-pants and the remaining 15 percent comprise pedes-

trians and cyclists, who are the most vulnerable toinjury from collisions.

Although vehicle manufacturers and infrastruc-ture owners continue to introduce safety-enhancingfeatures for vehicle occupants, most of the obvious,politically feasible improvements with major benefithave been made. Even so, thousands of deaths couldbe averted each year at low cost if the use of safetybelts increased beyond 70 percent of motorists.Strategies for reaching higher-risk drivers involvestronger state laws or other interventions that lackpolitical support. Nevertheless, behavioral changemay be key to continued reductions in traffic fatali-ties and injuries; further improvements will requireingenuity and political will.

The demand for passenger travel and freightmovement is straining the capacity of the U.S. transportation system. Congestion in the transportation system is worsen-ing as demand outstrips the ability to add capacity.Increased travel is a product of population growth,but the number of trips per capita is also increasing.Midrange projections by the Bureau of the Censusindicate that in less than 25 years, the U.S. popula-tion will increase by 60 million—roughly equivalentto adding twice the population of California. Immi-gration will account for a substantial share of thisgrowth, but is difficult to predict.

The greatest challenge will be accommodatingthe housing and transportation demands in metro-politan areas in which people are likely to settle.During the last decade of economic prosperity, pas-

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FIGURE 3 Fatalities and fatality rate on U.S. highways. (SOURCES: National HighwaySafety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Traffic Safety Facts 1998;Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Annual Report 1999.)

More integratedtechnologies andimproved approaches todemand management andsystem operations—as well as additionalinfrastructure—willincrease the capacity ofthe U.S. transportationsystem.

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senger and freight trips by air, transit, highway, andrail grew at a much greater rate than capacity. Theresult is increased congestion and frustration. Delaysdue to air and roadway congestion cost an estimated$75 billion annually in lost time and wasted fuel.

The physical capacity of the system is growingmore slowly than before for various reasons, includ-ing cost, community resistance, and environmentalconcerns. Operators of all modes are attempting toincrease throughput with new intelligent technolo-gies and system management procedures for aviation,rail, road, transit, and maritime operations. More inte-grated technologies and improved approaches todemand management and system operations—as wellas additional infrastructure—are needed.

Current institutional arrangements constrain theorderly development, operation, and coordinationof the U.S. transportation system, includingfacilities, modes, and services. Whether capacity-enhancing technologies and newmanagement procedures can be developed andwhether techniques can be introduced to keep pacewith escalating demand are open questions. Newapproaches not only must be developed, but must beapplied by institutions created to build systems, notto manage operations.

The transportation system is a patchwork ofloosely connected modes encompassing 35,000 gov-ernment owners of roads; tens of thousands of pri-vate carriers; and thousands of independentauthorities responsible for ports, transit systems, andairports. The funding mechanisms for these entitiesremain unconnected and uncoordinated, despitereforms incorporated into federal legislation.

Furthermore, in keeping with values of local,democratic decision making, much of transporta-tion planning, programming, and implementation isconducted at the metropolitan and state levels. Theseprocesses are deliberate and time consuming. Theresult is a series of disconnects: on one hand, slowpublic planning and implementation, and on theother, ever-changing demands of private firms andindividuals for transportation services.

On a regional basis, the major challenge for trans-portation agencies is changing the focus from build-ing and maintaining infrastructure to operating andmanaging capital assets for maximum public benefit.

Worthy environmental goals and values poseserious challenges to the operation andexpansion of transportation facilities to meetgrowing demand. Public opinion data reveal that Americans place ahigh value on clean air and water and are increas-

ingly concerned about transportation’s adverseeffects on the environment. Individuals and com-munities oppose noise from operations, and debatesabout the long-term effects of transportation facilitieson sprawling development are contentious.

Transportation officials are being asked to balancethe public’s conflicting demands. Yet the available toolsfor predicting the consequences of new or expandedfacilities or alternative strategies for meeting trans-portation demand are inadequate. Neither the datanor the methods for deriving reliable estimates of costsand benefits are sufficiently developed. Regulationsintended to achieve environmental and transporta-tion objectives can cause lengthy and expensive delaysin decision making and produce results that are lessthan satisfying for the parties involved.

Government and industry have invested heavilyin producing cleaner-burning technologies and havemade progress. However, introducing new tech-nologies that will have higher initial costs requiresincentives, which are lacking. Moreover, the level ofpublic investment in research aimed at exploitingthese opportunities—though substantial—palesagainst the importance of protecting and improvingthe environment. New ways must be found to satisfypublic demand for travel and for meeting environ-mental goals.

Cleaner-burningtechnologies areprogressing; however, newways must be found tosatisfy public demand fortravel and for meetingenvironmental goals.

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The U.S. transportation system, which dependson fossil fuels, faces an uncertain future withrespect to the availability and cost of energy. Transportation relies heavily on fossil fuels—primar-ily petroleum—and demand is increasing (see Fig-ure 4). The consumption of fossil fuels producesemissions harmful to health and ecosystems, con-tributing to climate change. Sources of petroleum—including petroleum reserves, tar sands, andshale—appear to be plentiful, but the economicand environmental consequences of their use areworrisome.

Recent dramatic price fluctuations have hurt thebalance sheets of private carriers—fuel representsmore than 10 percent of their expenses—and havecaused budget problems for transit systems. Alterna-tive fuels and propulsion systems appear promising,but considerable investment in technology and distri-bution systems will be needed to make these energysources competitive with petroleum-based fuels.

The aging transportation infrastructure must berebuilt, but the costs involved exceed revenues. Major highway and transit assets built in thepost–World War II era—including the entire Inter-state system and most airports and transit systems—demand constant renewal and upkeep, necessitatinglarge reinvestments to maintain capacity. Publicagencies invest more than $30 billion annually tomaintain the highway and transit infrastructure. TheU.S. Department of Transportation has estimated thatthe substantial funding increases incorporated inrecent federal legislation for highway and transitinfrastructure fall short of meeting the needs formaintenance and upkeep.

Railroads, which provide private financing forcapacity enhancements, face the same imbalance ofcosts and revenues. The costs of maintaining water-ways, airports, and air traffic control systems also aresubstantial. However, the price of not keeping upwith transportation system demand is decreased pro-ductivity, products that are less competitive, and alower standard of living.

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FIGURE 4 Annual total petroleum use in the U.S. economy, 1975–1999. (SOURCE: Figure5-22 in Changing Face of Transportation, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2000.)

Investment in technologyand distribution systemsis needed to makealternative fuels andpropulsion systemscompetitive withpetroleum-based fuels.

Public agencies invest more than $30 billion annuallyto maintain the highway and transit infrastructure.

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The financing of publicly provided transportationinfrastructure is not adequately matched to useor need. Taxes on fuel have financed most of the nation’smajor highway and transit facilities. However, in thelonger term, fuel-tax revenues are threatened by thegrowth in tax-exempt additives (such as ethanol),increased fuel efficiency, and the development ofpropulsion technologies not based on gasoline.Moreover, the trend toward increased reliance onsales taxes and general taxes in some jurisdictions iseroding the long-established principle of paying fortransportation through user fees.

These alternative revenue sources also are moresensitive to changes in the economy and politicalpriorities. Despite an almost unparalleled era ofprosperity, the public sector is being forced to domore with less on many fronts and is becomingincreasingly reliant on less-predictable revenuestreams.

Transportation organizations are havingdifficulty attracting and retaining the technicallydiverse personnel needed in the 21st century. Changing technology in transportation has created aneed for personnel with expanded skills. Trans-portation agencies, asked to adopt sophisticatedtechnologies for operating systems and vehicles, arehaving difficulty attracting skilled personnel becauseof higher salaries available in private industry; how-ever, even private firms that contract with trans-portation agencies are having difficulty findingworkers with the needed skills.

Enrollments in engineering and other technicalprograms are declining, although the demand forindividuals with advanced technical training hasnever been greater. Many questions face the trans-portation industry, including how to train, recruit,and retain sufficient numbers of persons with therequisite technological skills.

Consumer benefits from deregulation arethreatened by industry consolidation. Reduced economic regulation of transportationindustries has brought great benefits to consumers asfirms have cut costs and expanded services. Themarketplace has been tumultuous, but industry hasbecome more productive and service oriented.

But even as industry continues to innovate andcut costs to meet customer demands, concern arisesthat further reducing the number of major airlinesand railroads could result in insufficient competi-tion. Government resistance to mergers is con-strained by the potential failure of venerable firms,the resulting widespread impacts on shippers andtravelers, and the cost savings that carriers derivefrom mergers.

Fuel-tax revenues are threatened by the growth intax-exempt additives, increased fuel efficiency, and thedevelopment of new propulsion technologies.

Changing technology hascreated a need forpersonnel with expandedskills.

Reduced economicregulation oftransportation industrieshas brought great benefitsto consumers, butcompetition may suffer.

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An aging population poses special safety andmobility challenges. More than 19 percent of Americans will be age 65 orolder by 2025, compared with 13 percent today. Themobility needs of older people change, but themajority of trips are made by automobile. However,driving skills decline with age, even as vulnerabilityto injury from collisions grows. Most people retire inthe neighborhoods in which they have resided; thesemainly suburban settings were designed around theautomobile and are difficult and costly to serve withalternative modes. Nonetheless, alternative modesare needed.

The burden of owning and operating vehicles isincreasing for the lowest-income families. Transportation was the third-highest householdexpense in the 1970s; today it is the second highest.For affluent households, this change reflects per-sonal preferences. For families with lower incomes,however, particularly those living in automobile-dominated metropolitan areas, costs for transporta-tion compete in magnitude with those for housing.In many lower-income households in low-densitysuburbs, 25 percent of household income is spent ontransportation.

Telecommunications and informationtechnologies are likely to have significant butuncertain consequences. The merging of telecommunications and informationtechnologies with transportation offers the greatestpotential for innovation in transportation. Like thesweeping changes effected by the Internet, the out-comes from merging the three domains cannot bepredicted with certainty.

Possible outcomes include smoother traffic flows;greater ease in telecommuting, such as wireless Inter-net access for drivers and other travelers; and crash-avoidance technologies for all types of vehicles. Atthe same time, complex questions arise about systemreliability, privacy, and liability; effects on disperseddevelopment; and the risk that additional vehicleservices and driver warning systems will detractfrom—not enhance—driving performance.

Transportation faces formidable barriers toinnovation, which are compounded by growingconstraints on research investments. Although innovation offers promise in almost all dis-ciplines of transportation, the challenges to devel-oping and introducing innovations are daunting.Private manufacturers of new vehicles, for example,work in an environment that rewards innovation andcan respond accordingly; the public sector, however,must address multiple social goals, which often slowthe pace of decision making. Moreover, public agen-cies are reluctant to try new things in the face ofuncertainty, conflicting objectives, and low publictolerance for failure.

Research programs are decentralized becauseoperations are decentralized, and needs vary acrossthe country. Decentralization, however, leads to pro-

Because driving skillsdecline with age andvulnerability to injuryincreases, alternativemodes of transportationare needed for olderdrivers.

Despite challenges, innovation offers promise inalmost all disciplines of transportation.8

grams of modest scale addressing only near-termproblems. Longer-term, higher-risk research effortsare difficult to sustain.

The ability of federal mission agencies to investin such programs is also increasingly constrained bycongressional designations of research and devel-opment (R&D) funds. The earmarking of researchfunding—a practice that has grown with each bud-get cycle—bypasses the quality-control mecha-nisms of competition, merit review, and peer review.These mechanisms have been central to theremarkable contributions of science and engineer-ing to society in recent decades, and earmarkingthreatens to undermine even modest programs oftransportation research.

Transportation ResearchOpportunitiesThe opportunities offered by transportation researchhold great promise. The following are examples ofthe benefits that research may provide:

• New intelligent technologies in all modes canimprove safety and service quality as transportation,information, and telecommunications infrastructuresmerge. New traffic operations centers could helpoperate traffic more efficiently and also provide amore focused response during emergencies.

• Improved materials can extend the service lifeof assets and can lower maintenance costs.

• New construction techniques can permitreplacement and upgrading of congested facilitieswith less disruption and delay.

• Innovative approaches to purchasing servicesfrom the private sector promise a better return forthe public sector in terms of quality and life-cyclecost.

• Enhanced understanding of public prefer-ences and behavior with regard to safety and tripmaking can guide better investment decisions.

• Better tools for predicting, managing, andavoiding environmental impacts can improve envi-ronmental stewardship.

• Better understanding of complex and long-term side effects—such as sprawl—can improvedecisions about development.

• Deeper understanding of the causes of crashescan lead to more cost-effective countermeasures.

• More efficient, less-polluting vehicles andfuels that are less environmentally disruptive arewithin reach in terms of availability and cost.

• Analysis of newly emerging institutionalexperiments within states and regions can indicatenew and better ways to make decisions and to man-age and operate facilities.

But despite this promise, transportation R&D isout of balance with national needs and with thesector’s importance. Although transportation’s shareof the GDP is nearly equal to that of health care, thefederal R&D investment in health care is 10 timesthat in transportation (see Figure 5).

Moreover, the national investment in science,engineering, and health has increased sharply inrecent years, but the investment in transportationhas remained low and unchanged. This underin-vestment makes it difficult to attract the best mindsto work on solving transportation problems andleads to insufficient development of intellectual cap-ital in agencies and universities. Federal investmentin highway research as a share of expenditures, forexample, is a mere 0.5 percent—a share substantiallylower than that for low-tech industries.

Necessary InvestmentTransportation is vitally important to individuals,communities, and the nation. The challenges facingthe system are changing and have never beengreater. Research and innovation hold great promisefor addressing these challenges, but face formidablebarriers.

Moreover, transportation research programs arenot being funded or organized optimally. Thenation must invest wisely to realize the potentialbenefits of transportation research. At the nationallevel, the investment in transportation research—a primary source of innovation in the sector—is entirely out of balance with the importance oftransportation to society.

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FIGURE 5 Total federal R&D by selected budget function, fiscal years 1980–2001.(SOURCES: Federal R&D Funding by Budget Function, Fiscal Years 1999–2001; HistoricalTables, National Science Foundation, 2000.)

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Transportation Research BoardNational Research Council2101 Constitution Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20418Telephone: 202-334-2934Fax: 202-334-2030www.TRB.org