Upload
vitaly-pentegov
View
302
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Proposal is prepared for GettMarch 21, 2016
Group of consultants:
Vitaly PentegovAlexander KulakovVladimir BotoevVladislav Voyakin
| 22 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Source: consultants’ analysis
By 2018 Gett will be able to increase its revenue x3.1 times with the profit margin of 11% due to the following initiatives
1
Initiatives
Regional expansion, focus on FIFA 2018 cities
Потребители
Ресурсы компании
Экспансия в РФ
Revenue in 2018, mln USD Description of initiatives
2
3
4
B2B portfolio increase
Loyalty program development
Carpooling entry 79
+37
+41
+23
245
+65
x 3.1
11%4% +2% +1% +3% +1%Profit margin
1) Expansion in Chelyabinsk, Kazan’, Kaliningrad, Ufa and Krasnodar will allow Gett to increase revenue and profit margin significantly due to effective pricing and mutual discount strategy
2) Corporate services development and increase of B2B in Gett’s portfolio could rise the profitability of the business as well as revenue
3) Loyalty program modernization will allow to rise the company’s market share in Moscow and Russian regions, increase Gett’s brand recognition and rating
4) Implementation of carpooling could be significantly prospective and allow Gett to take the niche in this direction and increase revenue
к 2018 B2C B2BCompletion rate 90% 98%
ATA* 5 min 5 min
FTRS** 10% 20%
* Average time of arrival ** First time ride share
01020304050607080
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F 2019FCzech Republic RussiaPoland TurkeyOthers Number of smarphone users in Russia
| 33 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
Internet and smartphone penetration shows high growth and outpaces many of leading countries
1
2
Source: ICAA, McKinsey, eMarketer, consultants analysis * Moscow, Saint Petersburg
Taxi sector keeps on growing rapidly due to internet penetration, mobile development and displacement of traditional taxi
Russian market of legal taxi indicates rapid growth displacing illegal part
Gett could increase its market share in regions and capitals* due to cutting-age technology servicesInternet penetration and number of smartphones in Russia
56% 52% 39% 31% 27% 24%
44% 48% 61% 69% 73% 76%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Illegal sector Legal sector
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%
05
1015202530354045
2015 2016E 2017F 2018F
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
0
5
10
15
2016E 2017F 2018F
Moscow
RegionsMoscow market structure of rides (% of total rides)
Expected market share of Gett in Russia
16 26
43
71
2011 2015
Moscow Other regions
Market size of legal rides (RUB bln)
+13%p.a.
(mlnpeople)
mln rides
mln rides
% of rides in portfolio
-5000
5000
15000
25000
35000
45000
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16
Nominal wages, RUB (rhs) Real wages, YoY Real disposable income, YoY
$107 $41 $40-50Oil Brent
price
| 44 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
Fall in oil prices caused heavy Ruble devaluation1 2
Source: Thomson Reuters, Rosstat, consultants estimates and analysis
However, decrease in disposable income due to poor macroeconomics condition in Russia affects taxi business negatively
This led to increase of inflation and decrease of disposable incomes, in result – to passenger outflow
20 Mar, 201620 Mar, 2014
68
34 55-65USDRUB
forecast
6.5%
11.4%12.9%
8.6%7.0%
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%
10.00%12.00%14.00%
2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Russian CPI
Dynamics of wages and disposable income in Russia
| 55 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
3
Sources: Business atmosphere, analysis of consultants, 2GIS
Current Russian crisis increase the costs of taxi drivers that leads to reduce in revenue and profit of taxi aggregators
Taxi drivers costs spike while aggregators decrease prices, leading to drivers quit due to lack of earnings
There is a risk of revenue and profit margin decrease of taxi business
Costs of Moscow taxi driver per month, RUB
Gasoline
Car wash
Small repairs, oil change, etc.
Insurance
Insurance fees
Maintenance (2 times per year minimum)
Taxi patent (for individual entrepreneurs)
Taxes
58265
183%
94%
2014 2015
-49%Profit margin dynamics of Gett
45456 4967858265
2013 2014 2015
30240
9000
6667
5167
2983
2500
1500
208
Costs of Moscow taxi driver per month, RUB
20%
12%
25%
43%
| 66 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Sources: RBC, Vedomosti, TASS, consultants analysis
Intensive competition in Moscow and Saint Petersburg force big players to optimize the business and diversify a portfolio of services
The competition of taxi drivers reached its high level1
Taxi
Market shares of top taxi aggregators in Moscow
50%
38%
12%
USELESS
PROBABLY USEFUL
USEFUL
2
3
Companies aimed to the business diversification in order to save stable growing profit margins
However, penetration of such services in Russia is very low
Rank of the usefulness of additional services in taxi business in Russia, % (survey)
YandexTaxi
Gett
Wheely
Uber
Only taxi services
Taxi, business rides, carrier, delivery of food and flowers
Only taxi services
Taxi, business rides, carrier, delivery of food
Taxi market is potentially more promising than the market of additional services4
9002400600
1800
2015 2018F
Other regionsMoscow
Express delivery market in Russia, $ mln
1600 2800
7400
17200
2015 2018F
Russian taxi market, $ mln
Other regionsMoscow
4,5 times
bigger than delivery market
| 77 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Sources: J'son & Partners, Google, eMarketer
We consider region expansion is more perspective alternative than business diversification of taxi aggregators
62% Russian mobile internet penetration (end of 2015)
58% End of 2014
<50%50-60%>60%
Moscow and its regions, 91%
Saint Petersburg and its regions 85%
37.05
64.81
2016 2017 2018
8.91
10.17
9.44
14.13
6.94
15.21
Chelyabinsk
Kazan'
Omsk
Ufa
Kaliningrad
Krasnodar
| 88 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Source: consultants analysis, vc.ru
Proposed strategy will allow Gett to cover all the big cities of the European part of Russia and increase its revenue by $65 mln by 2018
Market concentration of taxi aggregators in Russian regions is low
The share of taxi aggregators will continue to rise rapidly
4.38% 6% 8% 10%
95.62% 94.00% 92.00% 90.00%
2015 2016 2017 2018
Taxi aggregators Traditional taxi
Expected market share in Russia (% of total rides)
0.88% 0.53% 1.09%
97.50%
GETT UBER YANDEX.TAXI OTHER
Market shares of aggregators in Russia(% of total rides)
Entry to the following cities will give the target level of revenue by 2018:
Expected revenue, mln USD
City of FIFA 2018
City of FIFA 2018
Ufa
| 99 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Source: analysis of consultants
Optimal competitive pricing strategy will allow the company to reach the target level of revenue and acquire significant market share in regions
Proposed portfolio
Krasnodar
Kaliningrad
Chelyabinsk
1 H 2017 2H 2017
Regions expansion pricing strategyNew cities
Economy Comfort BusinessGett Traditional taxi
Kazan’
Omsk
Initial ticket price, RUB
120
140 From 49then12 RUB/min
From 69then11 RUB/min
From 69then14 RUB/min
From 89then14 RUB/min
From 89then11 RUB/min
From 99then13 RUB/min
135
125
140
160 150 150
140
160 150
145
210 240 235230
180
200 190 190
200225 220
215
| 1010 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Sources: consultants estimates
In order to increase the profit margin, Gett could implement the following mutual discount model that will cut costs of the company and counterparties
+7%
Increase of profit margin by 3% due to the following initiatives…
….Offering insurance, auto and services discounts to taxi parks and drivers
Ticket discounts from taxi providers for Gett
Gett negotiates with auto manufacturers, insurance companies and auto services about the discounts
Then Gett offers these discounts to the taxi parks and drivers in exchange of mutual reduce in ticket prices
%
%
Expected reduce in ticket prices due to mutual discount offering
4%
11%
2015 2018
6%
Total profit margin in 2018Profit margin from initiatives
5%
10%
15%
28%
35%
| 1111 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
Corporate auto park is quite expensive for most of the companies1 2
Sources: McKinsey, Sberbank CIB report
Moreover, increase and development of corporate sector could lead to increase Gett’s revenue by additional $23 mln and 3% profit margin due to higher profitability of B2B services
Most companies prefer higher taxi classes for their employees
Orders classification and its profit margin
Corporate auto park B2B Gett
≈ $1000 monthly costs per auto
is 40% cheaper
10%
45%
20%
25%
Orders by classes, % Profit margin, %
Auto maintenance
Wages
Logistic system
Gasoline, insurance
Main company costs to corporate auto park
01
02
03
04
3 New corporate clients increase will significantly increase Gett’s profitability
3 3.5 4.56 9
11
2016E 2017F 2018F
Base Case B2B development
Profit margin%
TargetClass
2015
4
1
2
3
4
Business
XL
Comfort
Economy+
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Passenger flow in public transport, mln passenger km
Челябинская область Республика ТатарстанОмская область
| 1212 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
Entry of carpooling in Russia will be successful due to the following reasons
2
1
4
Source: RBC, therideshareguy.com, vc.ru, consultants analysis
Carpooling implementation in the 2nd half of 2016 could allow Gett to increase its revenie by $37 mln and profit margin by 2 %
Carpooling is a perspective direction to develop in taxi business, allowing to serve several clients instead of one
Carpooling could add $37 mln of revenue and 2% of profit margin
01
02
Lower prices with the same quality
Russian carpooling market is not domesticated and represented only by one company (BlaBlaCar) not involved in taxi business
03The main competitor of Gett is not involved yet in carpooling in Russia, opportunity to be the first
Both clients and taxi drivers will be interested in carpooling due to lower price to passengers and higher to drivers 150
200
Average cost of ride, RUB
Traditional taxi
Carpooling
Due to reduce and low quality of public transport (especially in regions) carpooling have a good chance to get its market share
3
-3,8%-7,1%
0,4%
To the center
To the center
0.7%
1.4% 2.0%
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%
0
10
20
30
40
2016 2017 2018Revenue, $ mln Profit margin, %
719
37
Chelyabinsk districtOmsk district
Tatarstan republic
43%
35%
10%
12%Drivers look andbehavior
| 1313 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Source: RBC, Vedomosti, surveys and analyses of consultants
Our analysis of consumer preferences showed the weak points in Gett’s current clients service system
Surveys of clients highlighted the following main factors that affect the choice of the taxi provider1
Yandex.Taxi Uber Gett
Time of taxi arrivalRide costsFlexibility of tariffsAvailability of comfort classesSafetyLoyalty programTotal satisfaction
4
- rating
- rating
- rating
Main clients’complaints
Drivers choose long routesDrivers behave impolite
Analysis of companies, main taxi services and tariffs showed that Gett offers services on the same level of its competitors
2
Cost of ride
Order processing speed
Other
Clients are not always satisfied by Gett’s services3
57%
43%
Yes No
Are you satisfied by Gett’s services Will you use Gett next time?
14%56%
19%11%
No, indeed Probably no
Probably yes Yes, indeed
There is a need to improve client services and loyalty program
Valuation of clients preferences in choice of the taxi aggregator
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Rating
Factor number
Gett’s client services are rated lower than of main competitors
10% more km available
15% more km available
20% more km available
Accumulation of“km” points
| 1414 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
21
Sources: Gett, surveys of consultants, Levada
Implementation of the new loyalty program will allow Gett to attract new clients and improve the loyalty level of existed clients
Implementation of the new loyalty program will give the company more new clients and increase its brand recognition
Clients are not interested in Gett loyalty program
Client is able to pay its ride distance by virtual kmaccumulated. The rate is 1 real km = 10 virtual km
Discounts from partner companies
Decrease in loyalty levels from 20 to 4
0 км
100 км
500 км
1000 км
Every level has its own set of useful bonuses44
12
73
What Gett bonuses are interesting for you? (% of total correspondents)
Does Gettneed it?
Review of the best practices showed the bonuses interesting for clients
89
83
95
Promo-codes for the first ride
Reaching the new loyalty level
There are no attractive bonuses for me
Discounts from partner companies
Accumulation of “km” points to pay for further rides
Increase in comfort class level
01
02
03
Ability to pay the rides by accumulated points
Class level increase
Order of exotic cars
Accumulating of the ride “km”(analog for mile airlines programs)
| 1515 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
Our analysis showed that investment funds are the most preferable sources of funds for Gett2
Sources: Vedomosti, Finam, Forbes, RBC, bankir.ru, Gett, analysis of consultants
The company is ready to implement the initiatives due to ability to get enough funds from different financial institutions
Gett could get the financing from the following funds:
Implementation of the strategy requires the following costs
3
Expansion in Regions
Total Costs, $ mln
B2B Sector Development
R&D of the New Loyalty Program
Carpooling
149
36
32
20
59Criterions of choice Invest.
Funds Banks Private Investors
Accessibility
Affordability
Speed of fund raising
Safety
Payment Period
≈ $200 mlnExpected sources of investments
≈ $87 mlnNew funds available to invest
1
| 1616 McKinsey Business Diving 2016Source: analysis of consultants
Step-by-step implementation of the following initiatives will allow the company to expand its business in Russia successfully, entering new region cities and increasing B2B share
Business plan constructionOptimization analysisComposition of tariffs for regionsConducting partnership agreementsSetting up of Wi-Fi modules in taxi carsStart of the new loyalty programConsumer sector analysisCompetitive analysis
Implementation of marketing and advertisement strategies
Attracting new corporate clientsExpansion in new region cities(priority is based on the FIFA 2018 cities)IT infrastructure optimization
Carpooling testingCorporate auto sales Creating of the analytical center for consumer behavior analysis
Road map
H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018 H2 2018
Initi
al s
teps
Deve
lopm
ent
Mar
ket s
hare
hol
d
Initiative
| 1717 McKinsey Business Diving 2016
By 2018 Gett will be able to increase its revenue x3.1 times with the profit margin of 11% due to the following initiatives
Expected Results
к 2018 B2C B2BCompletion rate 90% 98%
ATA* 5м 5м
FTRS** 10% 20%
0.9%1.2%
1.6%2.0%
2015 2016E 2017F 2018F
Expected market share of Gett in Russia
Expected operational results of Gett
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%
050
100150200250300
2015 2016E 2017F 2018FRevenue CostsProfit margin, %
Source: consultants’ analysis
1
Initiatives
Regional expansion, focus on FIFA 2018 cities
Потребители
Ресурсы компании
Экспансия в РФ
Revenue in 2018, mln USD
2
3
4
B2B portfolio increase
Loyalty program development
Carpooling entry 79
+37
+41
+23
245
+65
x 3.1
11%4% +2% +1% +3% +1%Profit margin
* Average time of arrival ** First time ride share
| 18
DISCLAIMER
This presentation (further: Presentation) is a business case solution to the annual case competition McKinsey Business Diving organized by McKinsey & Company. The company data is taken from the case description and not pretended to be real in any case. Therefore, the results of Presentation should not be considered to be real and implemented in linked business as a template. All calculations in this presentation are made on the base of consultants’ estimations and analyses and should not be viewed as a recommendation or advice. Gett is not somehow linked with the results of this Presentation and did not contribute to the appearance of the information in Presentation.
© InTeam 2016.