1988-89 cabinet paper 6132

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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE

Copy No 4 3

C A B I N E T M I N U T E

Canberra,

15 November

1988

No 12033

Submission

No.

6132

and

Amended

Minute

12008 ER)

Forward

Estimates

o f

Out lays

1989-90, 1990-91 and 1991-92

The

Cabinet

noted

the

out look for ou t lays

presen ted by the Forward

Est imates .

2 .

The Cabinet agreed tha t : -

a )

the

Prime Minis ter , the

Treasurer

and the

Minis ter

for

Finance s e t t l e

the

f ina l de ta i l s o f

the Forward Est imates Report; and

b)

the r e por t be

publ ic ly re leased

as soon

as

prac t i cab le .

3. In re spec t

o f

processes

for the 1989-90 Budget,

t he Cabinet fu r t he r agreed t h a t : -

a) M inis ters

lodge

Submissions

providing

l i s t i ngs

of

new pol icy

proposals

in pr i o r i t y order

and

of f se t t i ng savings

by 10 March 1989, in a format

to

be

advised

by the

Department o f Finance;

2

This document is the

property

of

the

ustralian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced


[1]

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CABINET

IN CONFIDENCE

2.

No. 12033

Contd.)

b)

these l i s t ings be r e s t r i c t ed

to

high p r io r i t y

n w

pol icy proposals and i den t i fy

su f f i c ien t

savings

in

out lays

to cover fu l ly the o s ~ of

these proposals ;

c)

any

proposals for

increased funding

in 1989-90,

inc luding those r i s i ng from

reviews curren t ly

being undertaken, be inc luded in these n w

pol icy pr io r i ty l i s t i ngs ; and

d)

por t fo l i o t a rge t s be

used

to

resolve

minor

new

pol icy

i ssues and to achieve overa l l budgetary

savings.

This endorses

Amended Minute

12008 ER) o f 10 November 1988.)

Acting

Secre tary to

Cabinet

This document s the property of the ustralian Government and s not to be copied or reproduced


[2]

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CABINETIN CONFIDENCE

Copy No.

43


Expenditure

Review Committee

Canberra, 10 November 1988

Amended No.

12021

ER)

Submission

No.

6132 Forward Estimates o f Outlays

1989-90, 1990-91 and

1991-92

The

Committee agreed tha t

: -

a ) an out lays review be prepared j o i n t l y by the

Department

o f

Community

Services

and

Health and

the Department o f Finance

on

the Pharmaceutical

Benef i t s Scheme focussing p a r t i c u l a r l y on: -

i )

the

i s sues

re fe r red t o

in paragraph

o f Cabinet Minute 11148 o f 23

May

1988;

i i )

payment arrangements, inc luding

the

opt ion of

payment

through the Health

Insurance

Commission;

and

i i i ) procedures for approval

o f

new

drugs

under

the

scheme; and

b)

the

r e s u l t s

of the

review

be

avai l ab le

by

February

1989.

2 .

The

Committee

a lso

agreed

t h a t

the

r e s u l t s

o f

t he review by

the

Minis t e r

for Housing and

Aged Care

of

housing

programs be

ready for

cons ide ra t ion by

the

Committee

by February

1989.

Amended

por t ion

his doc

u

me

nt is

the

prope rty

of the

Australian G

overn

m

ent

and is not to

be copied or reprod

u

ced

CABINETIN CONFIDENCE

[3]

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CABINET-IN -CONFIDENCE

opy

No


Expendi ture Review Committee

Canberra,

10 November 1988

No.

12020

ER)

Submission

No.

6132

Forward Est ima tes o f

Outlays

1989-90,

1990-91

and

1991-92

The

Committee agreed t h a t : -

a ) out lays reviews

be

prepared j o in t l y

by

the

4

Department

of Soc ia l Secur i ty and the

Department

o f

Finance

on

: -

i ) the Unemployment Benef i t work and

a c t iv i t y t e s t ; and

i i )

inc lus ion o f

maintenance payments

in

the

Family Allowance Supplement income

t e s t ;

and

b)

the

r e su l t s

of

each review be av a i l ab l e

by

February 1989.

2.

The Committee

a lso

agreed t h a t the r e su l t s o f

the review o f

i n i t i a t i ves

to

a s s i s t people

with d i s a b i l i t i e s

Cabine t

Minute

11685 o f

August

1988

r e f e r s )

be ready

fo r

cons idera t ion

by the Committee

by February 1989.

Acting Secre ta ry

to Cabinet

This docum

ent

is

th

e

property

of t he A ustralian G

overnment

and is

not to

be copied

or

rep

rod

uced

CABINET-IN-CONFIDENCE

.

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Copy No

4 3_

C B I N E T M I N U T E

Expendi ture Review

Committee

Canberra , 10 November 1988

No. 12016

ER)

Submission

No.

6132

Forward

Est imates

o f

Outlays

1989-90,

1990-91 and

1991-92

The Committee agreed t h a t : -

a) a rev iew

be

prepared j o i n t l y by the Department

o f

Defence and the Department

o f Finance

on

op t ions

for achieving

zero r e a l growth o f

defence

ou t l ays

in

1989-90; and

b) the

r e s u l t s of the review be

ava i l ab l e

by

February 1989.

Acting Secre ta ry

to

Cabinet

This document is the property

of

the Australian

Government

and

is not to be copied or reproduced


[7]

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Copy

No 4


Expendi ture Review

Committee

Canberra, 10

November 1988

No.

12014

ER)

Submission

No.

6132

Forward

Est imates

o f

Outlays

1989-90, 1990-91 and

1991-92

The

Committee agreed t h a t the r e s u l t s of the

rev iew

o f

Commonwealth

involvement in the

development

and

ope ra t ion

o f

a i rpo r t s

Cabinet

Minute 11466 ER)

o f 22

Ju ly

1988 r e f e r s be ready for cons ide ra t ion by

the

Committee by

February

1989.

Act ing Secre ta ry to

Cabinet

.

This document

is

the

property of

the ustralian

Government and

is not

to be copied

or

reproduced


[8]

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Copy

No 4

3


Expenditure

Review Committee

Canberra, 10

November

1988

Amended No.

12013 ER)

Submission

No.

6132

Forward

Est imates

o f

Out lays

1989-90,

1990-91

and

1991-92

The

Committee

agreed t h a t

the r e s u l t s o f the

review o f

adminis t ra t ive arrangements

r e l a t i n g t o s tudent

ass i s t ance

for Aborig inals

Cabinet

Minute 11152 o f 23 May

1988 r e f e r s

be

ready for

cons ide ra t ion by the

Committee

by

February

1989.

Acting Secre ta ry

to Cabinet

Amended

por t ion


of

the Australian Government

and

is not to be

copied

or reproduced


[9]

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C

opy

No

4


Expendi ture Review

Committee

Canberra, 10 November 1988

No. 12012

ER)

Submission

No.

6132

Forward Est imates o f

Outlays

1989-90, 1990-91 and

1991-92

The Committee agreed t h a t the r e s u l t s of the

fol lowing reviews be ready fo r cons ide ra t ion by the Committee

by

February 1989 : -

a ) Guarding Services Departments

are

to

review

guarding serv ices with a

view

to e f f ec t ing

sav ings Cabine t

Minute

11496 o f 26 Ju ly

1988

re fe r s ) ;

b) Aust ra l i an Surveying and

Land

Informat ion

resources necessary

for

rev i s i on

mapping

program

in future

years

Cabinet

Minute

11823 PSR) o f 30

August

1988 r e f e r s ) ;

and

c ) Review of Meteorologica l Services fo r Avia t ion

Cabinet

Minute

11664

o f 4 August 1988

r e f e r s ) .

.

Acting

Secre ta ry

to

Cabinet

This

document is the property

of

the Australian Government and is not to be

copied

or

reproduced

CABINET IN

ON

FIDEN E

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4

opy No



Canberra, 10

November

1988

No. 12009 ER)

Submission No. 6132

Forward

Est imates o f

Outlays

1989-90, 1990-91 and 1991-92

The Committee agreed t h a t t he r e s u l t s of the

review o f

the r e s i dua l

funct ions

and

resource

needs of the

Defence

Serv ice

Homes Corporat ion

fo l lowing t he

sa l e

of

i t s

loan por t fo l io Cabinet Minute 11614

o f

4

August

1988

r e f e r s

be

ready

for

cons ide ra t ion

by

t he

Committee

by

February 1989.

Act ing

Secre ta ry

to

Cabinet

This

document is

the

property

of

the

ustralian

Government

and

is not to

be copied

or

reproduced

CABINET I N ~ C O N F I D E N C E

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Co

py No .3


Expenditure Review

Committee

Canberra, l Qi November

19

Ii fi

Amended No;

12008

ER)

Submission

No. 6132

~

Forward

Est imates

o f

Outlays

1989-9

{0

;

1

~

9 0 9 1 and ~ 9 1 9 2

The

Committee noted

the

out look fo r out lays

presented by the Forward E s t i m a t e s

2.

The Committee agreed t h a t : -

the Prime Minis te r , t he Treasurer

and the

Minis ter for

Finance

s e t t l e

the f ina l de ta i l s

o f

the

Forward

Est imates

Report ;

ana

b

the repor t l; e pub l i c l y r e l eased as

soon

rars

p r a c t i c a b l e ~

3 .

In

respec t of

processes fo r the 198\9\-9 .@ Budget,

the Committee fur ther agreed t h a t

a ) Minis ters

lodge Submissions

providing

l i s t i ngs

o f

new

pol icy proposals

in

p r i o r i t y order and

of f se t t i ng savings

by

H

}

:

March in

a

format

to

be advised

by the Department o f

Finance;

2

This

document is the property of the ustralian

Government

and is not

to

be copied or

reproduced


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C BINET IN CONFIDENCE

2.

Amended

No.

12008 ER) C ontd. )

b)

these

l i s t i ngs

be

r e s t r i c t ed

to

h igh

p r i c r i t y

new

pol icy

proposa ls

and iden t i fy

su f f i c i en t

sav ings in

out lays

to

cover

fu l l y

the

o s ~ of

these proposals ;

c) any proposa ls for increased

funding

in 1989-90,

inc luding those a r i s ing from rev iews cur ren t ly

being undertaken,

be

inc luded

in

these

new

pol icy

p r io r i t y

l i s t i ngs ; and

d)

por t fo l io t a rge t s be

used

to

reso lve

minor new

pol icy

is sues and to

achieve

ove ra l l budgetary

savings

Acting Secre ta ry to Cabinet

Amended

por t ion

This document is the property of the ustralian Government and is not

to

be copied or reproduced

CABINET IN CON IDENCE

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Copy No

. 4_1

C A B I N E T M I N ~ T E


Canberra ,

1Q November

No. 12008 ER)

Submission No. 6132 Forward

Est imates

o f Out lays

~ 8

9 - 9 0 19 9Q-91

and

1991-92

The Committee noted t h e out look ~ ou t lays

pre sen ted

by the

Forward Est imates .

2.

The

Committee

agreed

t h a t

t h e

Prime M in i s t e r t h e Treasure r and the

Min is te r fo r

Finance

s e t t l e

t h e f i n a l

d e t a i l s

o f

th e

Forward

Est imates

Report ; and

( t

t h e

r e por t

be

p u b l i c l y r e l e a se d as soon

ra s1

pra c t i c a b l e .

3. In r e sp e c t o f processe s fo r t h e

19

9 -

@

Budget,

the Committee fu r the r agreed t h a t : -

Minis te r s

lodge Submissions prov id ing

l i s t i n g s

o f new

po l i cy proposa l s

in p r i o r i t y order and

o f f s e t t i n g

savings

by 10 March 1 9 ~ ~

in a

format

~ ~ be

adv ised by t h e

Department

o f i n a n c e

2

This

document

is

the property

of

the

Australian Government and is

not

to be

copied or

reproduced


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2.

No

12008

ER) Contd. )

b) these l i s t i n g s be r e s t r i c t ed to high p r ~ s r i t y

new pol icy proposals and

i d e n t i f y s u f f

s ~ n t

sav ings in out lays to cover fu l ly

t he

css t o f

these proposa ls ; and

c) por t fo l io t a rge t s

be used

to r e s o lve minor

new

pol icy i s sues and to achieve ove ra l l budgetary

savings .

Acting Secre ta ry to

Cabinet


of

the ustralian Government nd is not to be copied or reproduced


[16]

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CABI

ET 1

CONFIDE CE

SubmtSS On No.

OR C BINET

o p ~

o

Title

Minister

Relation

to

existing

policy

Sensitivity

Criticism

Legislation

involved

ency:

tical significant

dates

sultation:

Ministers

Depts

consulted

s

there

agreement?

Timing handling

of

announcement

Cost

FORW RD ESTIMATES

OF

OUTLAYS:

1991-92

1989-90 1990-91 ND

Senator

the Hon Pete r

Walsh

Minis ter

for

Finance

N/A

N/A

N/A

to

provide

a

report on

the forward es t imates

and the t rends they

ind ica te

for Budget ou t lays

for the next t h ree years

copies

of

the

d r a f t

Forward

Est imates Report have

been

lodged

with

the Cabinet Off ice ) ; and

recommend the

commissioning

of some reviews of

programs in areas with gre a t e s t pres su re fo r

growth

and complet ion of e x i s t i ng reviews ea r ly

in the new

year

so as

to

al low

adequate

cons idera t ion

in the Budget context .

To ensure t ha t reviews are completed in t ime

for

Budget

cons idera t ion

the re levant depar tments would

need to be informed

by

ea r ly November. Furthermore

re l ease of the

Forward

Est imates Report in e a r ly

November

would be des i rab le .

Est imates have now

been

prepared by the

Department

of

Finance

i n consu l t a t ion with other depar tments where

necessary . Prime Minis te r

and

Cabine t

and

Treasury

have been consul ted

on

t h i s submission.

Yes see Attachment G p age 23

N/A

N/A

Fin Yr

Fin

Yr

Fin

Yr

6132

3

1

his

document

is the property o the ustral ian Government and is

not

to be copied or reproduced

CABI ET IN CONFIDENCE

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Cabi

n

et In Confidence

B CKGROUND ND

ASSUMPTIONS

The

Department of Finance has, in consu l t a t ion with

depar tments and agencies , updated the f inanc ia l and

s t a f f i ng

es t imates for ongoing po l icy

for 1989-90, 1990-91

and 1991-92.

2. Revised procedures agreed

by

Minis ters

in

1987-88 mean

t ha t the

forward

es t imates

for

a

ro l l i ng

t h ree

year

hor izon cur ren t ly 1989-90

to

1991-92) are kept under

r egu la r

review

dur ing

the budget cyc le and hence

provide

a

s o l id

base

as

the es t imates

process

moves

i n to

a

new

budget year .

3. In compiling the es t imates ex i s t ing

po l icy

has been

def ined

in s t r i c t

terms

while allowance has been

made

within Technica l

New

Pol icy

to

accommodate requi rements

for

programs which need formal

cons idera t ion by Minis ters

but where t i s highly probable t ha t funding a t some l evel

w i l l be

required . I l l u s t r a t i v e provis ions have

been

determined by Finance in consu l t a t ion with depar tments on

a case-by-case bas i s . These

i tems

are

l i s t e d

a t

Attachment

A page

10) .

Addi t iona l ly , a

separa te

al lowance has been inc luded in the cont ingency rese rve for

poss ib le

r ev i s ions

to the es t imated

cos t

of de l ive ry of

e x i s t i ng pol ic ies .

4. Overal l , the forward es t imates provide

Government

with

informat ion

on

the

l evel

and

composi t ion of

out lays

over

the

next t h ree

years

t ha t

wi l l

apply in the absence of

po l icy changes .

As such they

provide

the i n i t i a l planning

base for the development of a

budget s t r a t e gy

for

the

coming year .

binet

In

Conidence

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3

ESTIMATES

OF OUTLAYS FOR 1989-90, 1990-91 AND

1991-92

5. The t ab le below

summarises

the out lays es t imates for

the

th ree forward

years

together with

1988-89 Budget

es t imates . The de ta i l ed

es t imates

are

provided a t

Attachment

B

(by

Funct ion)

(page 12)

and

Attachment

C

(by

Por t fo l io (page

13).

6.

The

economic parameters used in

the

der iva t ion of

the

es t imates and the es t imated s e n s i t i v i t y to va r i a t i ons

in

the key

parameters are

a t Attachment D (page

14 .

7.

The

forward

es t imates

show

t o t a l

rea l

out lays

dec l in ing

in

1989-90 followed by growth

in

1990-91

and

1991-92.

The major

reasons

for growth or

dec l ine by

func t ion

are

de ta i l ed a t Attachment

E

(page 16 .

1988-89 1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

Budget

Forward Est imates

Est imate

Tota l

Outlays

m

(excluding Asset

Sales 82713

85991

89888

93608

Real

Growth

on

preceding year

(%)

-2 .2 -0 .2

1.0

0.6

Propor t ion

of GDP

(%)

25.8

24.9

24.3

23.7

Asset

Sales

( m)

-700 -1100 na

na

Total Outlays

( m)

82013

84891

89888

93608

Real Growth on

preceding year

(%)

-1 .8

-0 .7 2.3

0.6

Propor t ion of

GDP

(%)

25.6 24.6

24.3

23.7

Cabinet In Confidence

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4

THE BUDGET

OUTL YS

T SK

8.

Whils t

the d e t a i l s

of

the

budget

t a sk fac ing us for

1989-90

are

not known a t t h i s s tage a number

of

parameter s

impinging

on t

are a l ready apparent .

9. F i r s t l y we have a l ready foreshadowed

s i gn i f i can t

t ax

cu ts

fo r 1

Ju ly 1989. I t i s

l i ke l y

t ha t

we

w i l l need

to

accompany

these by measures involving add i t iona l ou t l ays .

For

example, we

may

f ind

t

necessary to

i n d i c a t e our

i n t en t ions about meeting

the

ch i ld poverty p ledge:

ra i s ing FAS payments to the

benchmarks of 15 and

20

of

the s tandard

r a t e

of pension

would

cos t

over

200m.

10. Second, ex te rna l

problems

ind ica ted by

cont inuing

adverse

t r ends

in

fore ign

debt and

balance

of

payments

d i c t a t e t ha t f i sca l po l icy w i l l need

to remain

as t i gh t as

poss ib le . That i s l i ke l y to r equ i re tha t out lays growth

remain r e s t r a i n e d and t ha t

the

overa l l 1989-90 Budget be

main ta ined

. in s ign i f i c a n t su rp lus .

11. In any

event

community

expec ta t ions may well have

been

condi t ioned

by our

f requent

pub l i c references to four

consecut ive years

o f out l ays dec l ine and

the

fo recas t of

a

24 1/2% r a t i o

of

out l ays

to

GDP

by 1989-90.

12. Fina l ly exper ience has shown t ha t

even

in a t i gh t

f i s c a l

environment ,

we have f e l t

compelled

to

respond

to

emerging

pressures

and

to

con t inue to

make progress

towards our

soc ia l

goals

through

the

adopt ion of

new

po l i c i e s .

To t h i s end, we

have added between 640m and

970m

to

the forward es t imates in

each of

the

pas t

four

budgets , wi th

corresponding or l a rge r increases in

the

outyears .

This

year we w i l l have

the

added pressures of

i n i t i a t i v e s

assoc ia ted

with the

t ax cu t s .

abinet In Confidence

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5

13. I f

we were

to inc lude as much as 750m fo r new po l icy

in

each of

the forward years ,

fol lowed by

cont inuing

fu l l - ye a r e f f e c t s of

1000m

from each round of new po l icy ,

then out l ays would grow

by about

1/4%

in

rea l terms

in

1989-90,

r i s ing to 3

1/2% in 1990-91. Outlays as

a

propor t ion

of

G P would be 24.8% for both 1989-90 and

1990-91 and would only dec l ine

to

below

24.5%

from 1991-92.

14.

These

problems are

compounded in 1990-91 by

the

cessa t ion

of

the Government 's

cur ren t

asse t sa l e program.

The

ending of

the

program w i l l boost rea l

growth

of

out l ays by

1.3

percen tage po in t s and

reduce

the f i s ca l

surplus

by

over

1

b i l l i on .

Shor t ly , the re

w i l l

be

a

j o i n t

submiss ion from

the M inis te r for Adm inis t ra tive

Services

and me

before

Cabinet proposing an add i t iona l

asse t

sa l es program

tha t

would

cont inue

pas t 1989-90.

15. While

our exper ience with

por t fo l io t a rge t s

and

mi n i s t e r i a l l y

in sp i red o f f s e t t i n g savings

over

the

pas t

two years

has

been

p a r t i a l l y success fu l

t i s

u n l ik e ly

t ha t t ha t

process would

i de n t i f y savings su f f i c i en t fu l l y

to

of f se t

new po l icy in

1989-90,

i f

t ha t were

l a t e r

thought

to

be d e s i r a b l e . I t i s poss ib le t he re fo re ,

t ha t

t w i l l

be

necessary to

augment any

such measures with a

c e n t r a l savings exerc i se .

16.

I t i s

not

necessary

a t

t h i s s tage to

determine

when

t ha t exerc i se

needs to

be conducted

in

1989.

However

t

would be

prudent

to

commence work on

some areas where

i s sues are

more

complicated or

where

the

lead

t imes

in

develoging

opt ions

fo r our cons idera t ion can t ake us well

i n to the

Budget prepara t ion

per iod . Depending

on

how

ci rcumstances develop, we

may

need

to

cons ide r

implementing savings from

Ju ly in

order to maximise

of f s e t s to i n i t i a t i v e s announced with

the

tax package.

[21]

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6

17. An ana lys i s

o f

the Forward Est imates and h i s t o r i c a l

spending t rends helps point

to poss ib le

areas

where the re

remains use fu l scope to reorganise spending p r io r i t i e s .

Three quar te r s of t o t a l

growth has been concent ra ted

in

the broad

soc ia l and

welfa re

programs i e

educa t ion ,

h ea l t h ,

soc ia l

s e c u r i t y

and

welfa re ) .

Areas in the so c i a l

and

welfa re

programs where the re are pre ssure s

for growth

over the cur ren t forward es t ima te s per iod a re :

a)

inc reased numbers

of people

qua l i fy ing fo r indexed

pensions

and

b e n e f i t s ;

b)

s ign i f i c a n t

i nc rea se s in

u t i l i s a t i o n

ra te s

of medical

and pharmaceut ical se rv ices and b e n e f i t s e sp e c i a l l y

fo r the pens ioner popula t ion;

c) inc reased s tudent

numbers in t e r t i a r y educa t ion

and

i nc rea se s in per cap i t a funding

l ev e l s

for

schools ;

d)

inc reased p laces in

ch i ld

ca re

programs;

and

e) Government

commitments

to a l l ev i a t e ch i ld pover ty .

18. These programs are a l l pro jec ted to inc rease

in to

the

forward

es t ima te s per iod and

beyond

due to demographic

f a c to r s , coverage and i nc rea se s

in

average rea l be ne f i t s .

While some

growth

f ac to r s are amenable to government

po l icy , othe rs are not so e a s i l y inf luenced.

19.

I

propose

t h a t

we

should

examine

some

o f

the

programs

in

t h i s area wi th the

ob jec t ive o f

i den t i fy ing ach ievab le

longer - t e rm

savings .

[22]

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7

20. Reviews of

a number of programs

i n i t i a t e d in

other

con tex t s

a re a l ready

under way, and

are

l i s t e d a t

Attachment F page

18) . Severa l

of t he se

reviews, denoted

with

an

as t e r i sk

in

Attachment

F, have the po te n t i a l

to

achieve savings to the Budget. We should

reques t

r e levan t

Minis ters

to

ensure t ha t these reviews are completed and

repor ted to

ERC

by

February . Other

reviews

which might

have an

impact

upon out l ays in 1989-90 should be

dea l t

with

in

the

new

pol icy context .

1989-90 BUDGET OUTL YS

PROCESSES

21.

We do

not

need

to

dec ide

the

d e t a i l s

of

the

budget

out lays processes

for

next

year

a t

t h i s s tage , a l though

some broad ou t l ine of

the

t ime tab le and process

requi rements

a t

t h i s t ime

would be he lp fu l

to Minis ters

and t h e i r

departments

fo r planning purposes . I f we

wish

to have the

t ax

cu t s

in

place from

Ju ly , the l ead

t ime

involved for the Taxat ion Office and

employers means

t ha t

the tax measures and

any assoc ia ted new po l icy

w i l l

have

to

be announced

by mid

Apr i l .

Consequent ly ,

in

the

absence of a change

to

the promulgated pa t t e rn of s i t t i n g

days fo r t he

Autumn 1989 sess ion of

par l iament , the l a t e s t

da te fo r

the

s ta tement would be 12 Apr i l .

22. At

t h i s

s tage we should keep open our

opt ions

for

cons ider ing

i s sues unre la ted

to the tax measures fo r

announcement in Apr i l , al though

the

Commonwealth pos i t ion

concern ing

the Sta tes Financ ia l Ass is tance

Grants

wil l

need

to

be determined before

the

Premiers Conference.

Depending upon the s i ze of

the

t a sk tha t conf ron t s us

nex t

year , t

may be poss ib le

to cons ider the

major i ty

of the

remaining budget out l ays i s sues in one s tage between May

and

August . This might

involve

conf in ing comment

in

an

e a r ly economic s ta tement to a l imi ted

number

of out l ays

measures

accompanied

by

an up to da te s e t of forward

es t imates and poss ib ly

a

commitment

to

some out lays t a rge t

for

the

Budget.

We

can

recons ider these i s sues in

February.

[23]

8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6132

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23. ~ h

two-s tage new

po l icy process involving an ea r ly

s i f t i n g of

proposals

by

ERC

before

de ta i led submissions

were

prepared

worked

well dur ing

the

l a s t

Budget

process

and

I

be l ieve

we

should

adopt a s imi la r process again .

However

I

cons ider

t ha t t

would

a s s i s t us in meeting our

budget

t a rge t s

and

t e s t i ng the r e l a t i ve mer i t s

of

the

new

proposa l s i f Minis t e r s were

a lso

asked to i de n t i f y

proposa ls to

achieve o f f s e t t i n g savings .

I t

would be

des i rab le fo r Expenditure Review Committee

to

have

before

t a summary of

new

po l icy proposa l s as t en te rs i t s

discuss ions in March/Apri l .

A

submiss ion da te of 10

March

for new po l icy proposals

is

t he re fo re recommended.

24.

The

por t fo l io t a rge t

process

was

a l so success fu l

f ree ing us c o l l e c t i ve ly

from

cons idera t ion of

a number

of

minor i s sues al lowing ind iv idua l Minis t e r s f reedom

to

rea l loca te

p r i o r i t i e s and

to fund minor new

p o l i cy

and

achieving

worthwhi le

ne t

sav ings

to the Budget . I suggest

we should

plan

on

using t a rge t s in a s imi la r way next year .

RECOMMEND TIONS

25. I recommend

t ha t

Cabinet :

a) note

the

out look fo r ou t lays

presented

by

the

forward

es t imates ;

b)

agree

t ha t

Forward

Est imates Report should be

publ ished as

soon as

p ra c t i c a b l e ;

c)

au thor i se

me

to

f i n a l i s e and

to r e lease the

Forward

Est imates Report in

co n s u l t a t i o n

with

the

Prime

Minis t e r and the Treasure r ;

d) dec ide

what add i t iona l

reviews

and work

might

be

commissioned

now

so

tha t

r epor t s can be ava i l ab le

for decis ion-making

by February

1989;

[24]

8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6132

25/39

e) note the rev iews i de n t i f i e d

in

Attachment F t h a t are

c u r re n t l y under

way

and:

i ) in re spec t of those rev iews denoted with an

a s t e r i s k reques t

t ha t

the re l evan t

Min i s t e r s

bring forward repor t s on the r e s u l t s of those

rev iews

by February

1989;

and

i i )

agree

t ha t the r e s u l t s

of

othe r reviews

should

be brought forward

wi th in

the new pol i cy

con tex t ;

f ) note

the probab le

t iming impl i ca t ions

of

an

economic

s ta tement

in Apr i l ;

g) agree to cons ider

out l ays

i s sues

fo r

inc lus ion

in

the s ta tement in e a r l y 1989;

h) agree t h a t Minis t e r s should lodge submiss ions

providing l i s t i n g s

of

new pol i cy proposa l s in

p r i o r i t y order

and

of f s e t t i ng sav ings

by

10 March,

in

a format to be

advised

by the Department of

Finance;

i )

agree

t ha t these l i s t i n g s should

be

r e s t r i c t e d

to

high p r i o r i t y new p o l i c y

proposa ls ,

and should

i de n t i f y

s u f f i c i e n t sav ings in

out l ays

to cover

fu l l y the cos t o f these proposa ls ; and

j ) agree to the

use

of p o r t fo l i o t a rg e t s to

resolve

minor new pol i cy i s sues and to ach ieve

o v e r a l l

budgetary sav ings .

21 October 1988

P T R W LSH

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C u b ~ ~ e

rr. Confidence

ATTACHMENT

A

10

TECHNICAL NEW POLICY

Commonwealth

Sta te

Housing

Agreement

inc luding

Housing

Assis tance

to

the

ACT

1989-90

1990-91 1991-92

710.7m

710.7m

A minimum funding

l eve l of

700m has been agreed

under

the

CSHA

for

the t r iennium

1987-88

to 1989-90. An amount

of

10.705m

i s also provided

to

the ACT for

housing

a s s i s t a n c e

under

'CSHA-type' arrangements . The forward

es t imates

assume t ha t the

same

l evel of funds as t ha t

agreed for

1989-90

wil l

be

provided in the outyears .

Nat iona l Libra ry

Fi re

Detec t ion

1989/90 1990/91

1991/92

2.2m 1.

m

CD

11675 of

4

August

1988

agreed to ,

i n t e r

a l i a , complete

the

program for f i r e de tec t ion and pro tec t ion with of f s e t s

to

be provided when

a

Submission on the review of

the

Nat iona l

Library i s

brought forward. The review i s ye t to

be

f i na l i s e d and the i nd ica t ive

cos t s

of the program

(wi thout any o f f se t s )

have been

inc luded

in

the

es t imates

on a prov is iona l basis .

Fi lm

Finance Corporat ion

1989-90

74.8m

1990-91

61. Om

1991-92

63.0m

CD

11074(ER)

of

10

May 1988 agreed t ha t amounts , terms

and

cond i t ions for appropr ia t ions beyond 1988-89, would

be

determined

in the Budget context .

Ind ica t ive

f igures

conta ined in

the M i n i st e r s Cabinet Submission have been

inc luded in the es t imates .

Papua New Guinea Budget

Support

1989-90 1990-91

1991-92

275.0m

The

presen t agreement cover ing budget

support for

Papua

New Guinea expi res in 1990-91. I t

i s expected t ha t

the

agreement wi l l be renewed. The

es t ima te fo r

1991-92 i s

based on

the same

nominal l eve l of funding.

abinet

l n C o n f ~ c l c r H . c

[26]

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C u b i r . c : . ~ ~ 1 C o n f i d e n c e

11

Nat ional Campaign Against Drug Abuse NCADA)

1989-90 1990-91

TT CHMENT

A

1991-92

26.6m

The cur ren t

t r ienn ium

for

NC D

exp i res

a t the end

of

1990/91. I t

i s

an t i c ipa ted

t ha t

the

program wi l l

be

renewed fol lowing evalua t ion . The

es t ima te

for 1991-92 i s

based on

the

same nominal l eve l o f funding.

Program

to Combat the

Transmission

of

AIDS

1989-90 1990-91 1991-92

21. Om

In 1991/92,

funding

r eve r t s

back

to

the ongoing base

program. I t

i s

expected

t ha t add i t i ona l

amounts

wi l l

be

a l loca t ed following cons idera t ion by Minis te rs . The

es t ima te

for

1991-92 i s based

on the

same nominal l eve l of

funding.

Supported

Accommodation Assis tance Program

1989-90

68.7m

1990-91

7l . lm

1991-92

73.2m

Agreements with the

Sta tes and

T e r r i t o r i e s

under

the

Supported

Accommodation Assis tance Act 1985

exp i res on

30

June 1989. Funding for t h i s program i s expected

to be

renewed

followng

negot ia t ions

between

the

Commonwealth and

the

Sta tes and

T er r i to r i e s .

Cabinet

In Confidence

[27]

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ATTACHMENT B

12

OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION

1988-89 TO 1991-92

CHANGE

FUNCTION

BUDGET

ON

1988-89 1989-90 1988-89

1990-91 1991-92

m

m

m

r

m

m

1

DEFENCE

7,658.2 8,029.0

370.8

4.8

8,526.1

9,002.0

2.

EDUCATION 6 ,

307

.2

6,531.9

224.7 3.6

6,976.7

7,360.1

3. HEALTH

10,797.3 11,670.7 873.3

8. 1

12 ,855.6

14,031.5

4.

SOCIAL SECURITY AND

WELFARE

23,718.8

24,771 .5

1,052. 7

4.4

25,826.4

26,642.3

5.

HOUSING AND

COMMUNITY

AMMENITIES

NEC

1,328 .8 1 353 .8 25.0

1.9

1 308 . 1

1,292 .0

6.

CULTURE

AND

RECREATION

1,072.3 1,021.0

-51.3

-4 .8

1 ,010 .3 1,036.2

7.

ECONOMIC SERVICES

-

A.

TRANSPORT AND

COMMUNICATION

1,691.9

1,300.7 -391.2 -23.1

1,323.3

1,301 . 3

B.

INDUSTRY

ASSISTANCE AND

DEVELOPMENT

2,096.6

1 944. 1

-152.5

-7 .3

1,906.5

1 831 .0

c.

LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT

1,070.9

1

113. 1

42.2

3.9

1.118. 1 1. 170.7

D. OTHER

ECONOMIC

SERVICES

211.9

154

.3

-57.6

-27 .2

157.8 157 .9

---------

---------

--------

-------

--------- ---------

TOTAL

ECONOMIC

SERVICES

5,071.3

4,512.2

-559 . 1

-11.0

4,505.7

4,461.0

8. GENERAL PUBLIC

SERVICES

-

A. LEGISLATIVE

SERVICES

386 .8 304.2 -82.6 -21 .4

245.3

246

.3

B.

LAW,

ORDER

AND PUBLIC

SAFETY

622.6

606

.2 -16 . 5 -2 .6 609.7 602.8

c. FOREIGN AFFAIRS

AND OVERSEAS

AID

1,463.8 1,493.2 29.4

2.0 1,529.6

1,580.9

D. GENERAL AND

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH NEC

500.7

530.0 29.3 5.9

543.6 542.3

E.

ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES

2,780.5

2,949.7

169.2

6.1

3,174.3

3,370.3

--

------- ---------

--------

-------

--------- ---------

TOTAL GENERAL PUBLIC

SERVICES 5,754 .3

5,883.2 128

.8 2 .2 6,102 .6

6,342.6

OT ALLOCATED

TO

FUNCTION

-

A. PAYMENTS TO

OTHER

GOVERNMENTS,

NEC

13,235.0

14,288.4

1,053.4 8.0

14 ,716.3 15,210.4

B.

PUBLIC

DEBT INTEREST

7,639 .8 7,229 . 5 -410 . 2 -5.4

7,010.0

6,880 .0

c. CONTINGENCY

RESERVE 130.0 700.0 570.0

n

1,050.0

1,350.0

D. ASSET SALES

-700.0

-1 '1 00 .0

-400.0

57.1

.0

.0

--------- ---------

--------

-------

--------- ---------

TOTAL NOT ALLOCATED TO FUNCTION 20,304.8 21,117 .9 813 . 1 4 .0 22,776.2 23,440.4

---------

---------

--------

-------

---------

---------

TOTAL OUTLAYS

82,013.0 84,891 .0 2,878 .0 3 .5 89,887 .7 93,608 . 1

Cabinet

In Confidence

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C a b ~ n c ~ f n C o n f i d e n c e

ATTACHMENT C

13

OUTLAYS BY PORTFOLIO, 1988-89 TO 1991-92

CHANGE

PORTFOLIO

BUDGET

ON

1988-89 1989-90 1988-89 1990-91

1991-92

m

m m

1

m m

PARLIAMENT

115.2 97.3

-18 .0

-15 .6 94.5 96.1


1 200 .4

1 272.4

72

.0

6.0

1 265. 7 1 263.8

ARTS, SPORT,

THE ENVIRONMENT, TOURISM

787.1

511

.3 -275 .8

-35.0

481.5

479.4

AND TERRITORIES

ATTORNEY GENERAL

569.2

584

. 1 14.9 2 .6 597.1 587.7

COMMUNITY

SERVICES

AND HEALTH

15 828.7

17.175.2

1 346.4

8 . 5

18 565.1 19 833.9

OF WHICH

-

-

VETERANS

AFFAIRS

4 369.1 4 627 .5 258.4

5 .9

4 735.3

4 786.5

DEFENCE 7 709.9

8 034.6

324.7

4.2 8 543.0

9 013.1

EMPLOYMENT,

EDUCATION

AND

TRAINING

7 374.5

7 971.7

1 346.4

8 .5

8 437.2

8 885.0

OF WHICH

-

- ABORIGINAL AFFAIRS

467.1 496.9

29.8

5.4 503.9 510.7

FINANCE

690.9 667.2 -23.7 -3 .4 758.4 823.8

FOREIGN

AFFAIRS

1 379 .8 1 438.4

58.5

4.2

1 487.1

1 538.9

IMMIGRATION, LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

AND

212.4 214.2

1.8

.8 220.9 226.2

ETHNIC AFFAIRS

INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS

228.1 295.1 67.0

29

.4 292 .8

290.6

INDUSTRY,

TECHNOLOGY AND

COMMERCE

1

320

. 1

1 255 .4

-64 . 7 -4 .9

1 191.2

1 077 .9

PRIMARY INDUSTRIES AND ENERGY

1 409.4 1 320.3

-89.1

-6.3 1 386.2

1 440.1

PRIME MINISTER

AND CABINET

95.9 65.3

-30.6 -31 .9

64.1

56.6

SOCIAL SECURITY

19 056.8 19 855 .0 798.3

4.2

20 668 .6 21 372.0

TRANSPORT

AND

COMMUNICATIONS

2 162. 7

1 960.2

-202 .5

-9

. 4

1 998.0

2 014.5

TREASURY

22 441.8 22 573.3

131

.5

.6 22 786.2 23 248.4

NOT ALLOCATED TO

PORTfOLIO

- CONTINGENCY RESERVE

130

.0

700

.0 570.0

438

.5 1 050 .0 1 350.0

-

ASSET

SALES

-700.0

-1 100.0

-400.0

57 . 1

.0 .0

--------- ---------

--------

-------

--------- ---------

TOTAL

OUTLAYS

82 013.0

84 891.0

2 878.0 3 .5

89 887.7 93 608.1

Cabinet

In Confidence

[29]

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ATTACHMENT D

14

ECONOMIC

PARAMETERS

AND ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPINNING

THE

FORWARD ESTIMATES

1988-89* 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92

Def la to r s

(

inc rease

year-on-year)

AWE

(Survey

bas i s ,

persons)

5.4

5.3

4.5 4. 5

CPI

5.8 4 .2 3 .5 3 .5

Personal

consumption

5.3 4.2 3.5 3 .5

GDP

6.2

4.2

3.5

3.5

GDP

(non-farm) 6.0 4.2 3 .5 3 .5

GNE 4.6 4 .2 3 .5

3.5

Economic Aggregates

GDP

r ea l

(

r ea l

increase

year-on-year)

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

Average

unemployment

Benef i t r ec ip ien t s

( 000)

462

449 439

436

Exchange

Rates :

US/ A

.80

.80

.80

.80

TWI

60

60 60 60

* C u r r e n t

assumptions for

1988-89.

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TT CHMENT E

16

M JOR RE SONS

FOR

RE L GROWTH IN OUTL YS BY FUNCTION

1988-89 BUDGET)

TO

1991-92

Note:

Bracketed

f igures

r e f e r

to

t o t a l

rea l

growth over

the

forward es t ima te s

per iod .

DEFENCE +5.3 per

cent )

Real growth

planning guidance announced in

the

1988 Budget

of 0 .5 per

cent

in

1988-89, 1.0

per

cent

in

1989

and

2.0

per

cent

t he rea f t e r .

EDUCATION +4.5 per

cent )

Increased

funding

for

educa t ion

in the

t e r t i a r y sec to r and

s tudent ass i s t ance

schemes; p a r t l y

of f se t

by in t roduc t ion

of

revised

CT

Fiscus

in

1989-90

and fu l l

year e f f e c t s

of

the Higher

Educat ion

Contr ibut ion

Scheme.

HE LTH

+16.4

per

cent )

Increased

u t i l i s a t i o n

and average cos t s of medical and

pharmaceut ica l

benef i t s ,

and enhanced funding

fo r pub l i c

hosp i t a l s and

nurs ing

homes.

SOCIAL SECURITY

ND WELF RE

+0.6

per

cent )

Expansion of family ass i s t ance , of f s e t

by

a pro jec ted

dec l ine in b en e f i c i a r y

numbers

of

unemployment

be ne f i t s .

HOUSING ND

COMMUNITY

AMENITIES -12 .9 per

cent )

Reduced

payments under F i r s t Home

Owner

Scheme

and

t e rmina t ion of

d i rec t

lending under

the

Defence

Services

Homes

scheme fol lowing sa l e of

loan

p o r t f o l i o ; p a r t i a l l y

o f f s e t

by i n t e r e s t subs idy

to purchaser

of

Defence Service

Homes

Scheme

fo r

ex i s t ing borrowers .

CULTURE ND

RECREATION

-13 .4 per

cent)

Complet ion

of b icen tenn ia l ce leb ra t ions ,

inc luding winding

up

of

the Aus t ra l i an Bicentennia l Author i ty ,

o f f s e t by

commitment

to

provide

f inanc ia l a ss i s t ance to

Aus t ra l i an

f i lm

and

t e l e v i s ion product ion

and

funding inc reases for

the

Aus t ra l i an

Broadcast ing

Corpora t ion and

Spec ia l

Broadcast ing Service .

TRANSPORT

ND

COMMUNIC TION -31 .1

per

cent )

Repayment of

cap i t a l advances

by

Telecom and Aust ra l i a

Post and

a

decrease

in the Road Transpor t Program as a

consequence of

the

CT Fiscus arrangements .

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ATTACHMENT

E

17

INDUSTRY ASSISTANCE AND DEVELOPMENT -21 .8

per

cent )

Subs tan t i a l decreases

in

ass i s t ance to

primary and

secondary i n d u s t r i e s

and

complet ion

of the Burdekin Dam

LABOUR

AND

EMPLOYMENT

-2 .1

per

cent )

Terminat ion

of

heavy

eng ineer ing and r a in fo r e s t labour

adjustment

programs;

of f se t

by increases in t ake-up fo r

the

Aus t ra l i an

Tra ineeship System and t r a in ing i n i t i a t i v e s

for long-term unemployed,

Aborig ina ls

and

so le pa ren t s .

OTHER ECONOMIC SERVICES -23 .2 per cent)

Exp i ra t ion of

a

program of ass i s t ance to the Northern

Te r r i t o ry E l e c t r i c i t y Program in

1988-89.

LEGISLATIVE SERVICES

-43 .0

per

cent )

Reduced out lays by

the

Par l i ament

House Const ruc t ion

Author i ty a t t r i bu t ab l e to f i n a l i s a t i o n

of

New

Par l i ament

House.

LAW ORDER AND

PUBLIC SAFETY -13 .3

per

cent )

Ongoing a c t i v i t i e s for

t h i s

func t ion are b road ly

maintained in r e a l

terms and

the apparent dec l ine in

revised

f inanc ia l arrangements for

the ACT

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

AND

OVERSEAS AID

-3 .2 per

cent )

Reduced

out l ays due to

complet ion

of the Bei j ing Chancery

p a r t i a l l y

of f se t

by

nominal increases

in

overseas aid .

GENERAL

AND

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH -2 .9 per cent )

The

decrease

i s mainly due

to

revised funding arrangements

fo r

CSIRO,

involving

reduced

Commonwealth con t r ibu t ions .


+8

6

per

cent )

Prepara t ions

for

the conduct of the 1991 census ;

inc reased

repayments

under the

ins ta lment

purchase

of f i c e

cons t ruc t ion

program;

inc reased r en t

payments

and

growing

numbers of superannua t ion be ne f i c i a r i e s .

ASSISTANCE

TO

OTHER

GOVERNMENTS NEC

+3.0

per

cent )

In t roduc t ion

of a

f inanc ia l

ass i s t ance grant to the ACT

f i scus of f s e t by

reduc t ions

of out lays

in

a number of

func t ions ) .

PUBLIC

DEBT

INTEREST -19 .3 per cent )

Combined

e f fec t

of budget surplus and assumpt ions r e l a t i ng

to

i n t e r e s t

and

exchange

ra te s .

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18

ATTACHMENT

F

POST

BUDGET COMEBACK

PAPERS

Adminis t ra t ive

se rv ices

Aus t ra l i an Cons t ruc t ion

Services

computing a c qu i s i t i on -

fo l lowing

f i na l i sa t i on

o f the

Acquis i t ion

Counci l

process

CM

11657) - Report expected to

be

endorsed by

Counci l

around

l a t e

November 1988 with submission to

be

lodged

sh o r t l y a f t e r . Savings are expected

in

t he

medium

te rm.

Guarding Services -

Departments are

to

review

guarding

se rv i c e s

with

a view to e f f e c t i n g savings CM

11496).

Aus t ra l i an

Surveying

and

Land

Informat ion

-

resources

necessary

for

rev i s ion mapping

program in

fu tu re

years

to be reviewed by Cabinet in

the

1989-90 Budget con tex t .

PSR 11823) .

Review o f

Meteoro logica l

Services for Avia t ion -

fo r

cons idera t ion in

the 1989-90

Budget con tex t CM 11664).

Review o f

Government

purchasing po l icy CM

11141)

-

smal l

inc rease in out lays for

running

cos t s i s being

sought .

A r t s

Spor t s the

Environment ,

Tourism

and

Ter r i t o r i e s

Management

arrangements

fo r the

proposed

Wet Trop ica l

Rainfo res t s World Her i t age Area

CM 10869)

-

po t en t i a l

c os t o f up to 7m t o e s t a b l i s h a

management

a u thor i t y .

Maintenance and prese rva t ion o f the

Nat iona l Museum

o f

Aust ra l i a Col lec t ion CM 11673).

Management

Review

o f

the

Austra l ian

Nat iona l

Gal l e ry

CM

11673).

Review of the

Nat iona l

Library

CM

11675) .

Review of the Office o f the Supervis ing S c i e n t i s t

CM

11675).

Enhancing

Aus t ra l i an Research i n to Greenhouse Climat ic

Change CM

11674) - submiss ion expected be fore end o f

1988. Poten t i a l cos t 5m over 4 years .

obinet l n C c n f ~ d e n c e

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19

ATTACHMENT F

Review o f

Heri tage

Commission Act due

be fore end o f

1988, po te n t i a l

cos t s around 2m.

*

Review o f

Aus t ra l i an Film

Commission

t iming

unknown,

l i ke l y to

achieve

savings

Attorney

General s

Spec ia l

Inves t iga t ions Unit CM

11591) by

June

1989.

Likely impact on

out lays around 2m.

Community

serv ices and Health

Commonwealth

Rehab i l i t a t ion Serv ice devo lu t ion

to

t he

Sta tes

CM 11051) fo r cons idera t ion in the

1989-90

Budget con tex t

Pharmaceut ical

Benef i t s Scheme

presc r ib ing o f

expensive drugs CM 11148) due before December

1988.

Charges fo r r eg i s t r a t i on

of t he rapeu t i c

goods

fo r

cons idera t ion

in

the 1989-90 Budget con tex t CM 11719) .

Commonwealth

Serum Labora tor ies

cons t ruc t ion

on new

s i t e

CM

11721)

submiss ion

due l a t e November

1988.

I f

a l l

CSL a c t i v i t i e s

t r ans fe r red to

new

s i t e cos t s

could

be

o f f s e t

by

sa l e o f

old

s i t e

*

Review

o f

housing programs by Minis te r fo r

Housing

and

Aged

Care, scheduled fo r comple t ion by December

1988.

Veterans f fa irs

* Residual funct ion

and

resource

impl ica t ions o f the

Defence

Service Homes

Corporat ion fo l lowing

s a l e o f

t h e

loan por t fo l io CM 11614).

Repa t r ia t ion

Pharmaceut ical

Benef i ts

Scheme

working

par ty

to i nves t iga te and r e p o r t on c o s t s and be ne f i t s o f

amalgamating admin is t r a t ion o f RPBS with

the

PBS

CM 10618) t iming

unknown, l i ke l y

to ach ieve

smal l

savings

i accepted

GbHeei ln Confidenco

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20

ATACHMENT F

Employment, Educat ion

and Tra in ing

Discussion

paper

on r a i s i ng i n d u s t r y s con t r ibu t ion to

the na t iona l

t r a i n i n g e f f o r t CM 11155

Abor ig ina l Educat ion

Pol icy

CM 11723 -

e a r ly 1989.

Outlays by the Sta tes a f fec t ing

Abor ig ines

and Torre s

S t r a i t I s l anders CM

11653

-

due

be fore end of

1988

Evalua t ion o f

the

Tra in ing

fo r

Aborig ina ls

Program

CM 11655

-

fo r cons idera t ion in the

1989-90 Budget

con tex t

En t ry - leve l

Tra ining Arrangements -

Review

e x i s t i ng

Commonwealth

programs

of suppor t

fo r

e n t ry - l e ve l

t r a i n i ng , pa r t i cu l a r l y t hose r e l a t i ng to

Appren t i cesh ip

and

the Aus t ra l i an

Tra ining

System (ATS) -

as required

by CD

6371 - due before

end

December 1988.

Nat iona l Stra tegy For

Schools

-

j o i n t

Commonwealth/State

review

o f schoo ls

a t

i n s t i ga t ion of Minis ter -

r e p o r t

due end December 1988.

Review the admin is t r a t ive arrangements

r e l a t i ng to

Student Ass is tance

fo r

Aborig ina ls CM

11152

-

j o i n t

DOF/DEET review

Finance

Report

of

ad hoc Committee on Rent and

U t i l i t i e s

Assis tance

fo r Of f ice r s on Long-term Overseas

Post ings

CM 11157 - Report due

to

be completed by l a t e

November.

Impact

on ou t lays

l i ke l y to be l e s s than

Sm.

Review o f

the Commonwealth Superannuat ion

Scheme

-

r e p o r t

to

be completed by Department

o f

Finance review

team by end March 1989.

Indus t ry , Technology and Commerce

Review

o f

Export

Market Development Grants Scheme

CM 11162

-

review by

ea r ly 1990, but no e f f e c t on

ou t lays un t i l

1991-92.

abinet

ln Confkl2nce

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21

ATTACHMENT F

Commercial

t a r i f f concession sys tem CM

11164) due

September 1988, poss ib le e f fec t s

on revenue

r a the r than

ou t l ays .

Indus t ry development

arrangements fo r

informat ion

i ndus t r i e s

CM 11188)

repor t to SAC

by

30 October

1988.

Sta teg ies for Regulatory

Reform

repor t due October

1989. Impact on out l ays up to

0.5m

fo r DITAC

running

cos t s .

In t e r agency cos t

recovery

charging procedures a t

i n t e rna t iona l a i rpo r t s

CM 11830)

due end September

1988.

Primary In d u s t r i e s and Energy

Quaran t ine Review Committee

Repor t

CM 11648) by

31

October

1988.

Likely

impact around

3.7m.

Lemonthyne and Southern

Fores t Tasmania

CM 11736)

f inanc ia l package

fo r

proposed h e r i t a g e nominat ions

and

assoc ia ted i s sues .

Est imated

c o s t o f

43m

over 5

year s .

Review

of research and development a c t i v i t i e s

in

t he

Primary

Indus t r i e s and Energy Por t fo l io

Review has

been

i n t e rna l ly

i n s t iga ted

by Minis ter .

Soc ia l Secur i ty

Child

Support

Scheme

CM 11680

to

11683) repor t s

expected within

nex t th ree months on

a

range o f

i s sues

in

t ime fo r implementa t ion

o f Stage 2

from

1

Ju ly

1989.

Simpl i f i ca t ion and improvement

of

f r inge

be ne f i t

arrangements

CM

11685) in the 1989-90 Budget con tex t .

In i t i a t i v e s

to

a s s i s t

people

with

d i s a b i l i t i e s

CM 11685) in the 1989-90 Budget con tex t .

Proposa l s

on

r e t i r ement

income

fo l lowing Soc ia l

S ecu r i t y

Review

CM

11685)

Deta i l s

o f i n t eg ra t ion

o f

Addi t iona l Pensions i n t o

FAS

payment system from

December

1989 CM 11687)

in

t he -

1989-90 Budget context .

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22

ATTACHMENT

F

Assurance o f

Support

Scheme

CM

11691) expec ted in

October o r November

1988.

Minor sav ings

in

1989-90.

Review

of

housing

ass i s t ance

by

Minis ter

fo r

Soc ia l

Secur i ty

scheduled

fo r complet ion

by December 1988.

ransport and

communication

Methodology to determine Light

Navigat ion Dues Charges

and co l l e c t i on o f charges

fo r

Commonwealth

nav iga t iona l

a ids CM

10714)

repor t l i ke ly by January 1989,

budget

neu t ra l outcome

l i ke ly .

Commonwealth involvement in development and opera t ion of

a i rpo r t s

CM

11466(ER))

- d u e

by

end

November.

Cost recovery

arrangements for

AUSTEL s t echn ica l

regu la t ion

and se rv ice

l i cens ing

CM

11188).

reasury

Income Equa l i s a t ion Deposi t Scheme

CM

11097)

submiss ion expected by

December

poss ib le e f f e c t

on

ATO

running cos t s .

Loan Council and PSBR t rea tment o f

p r i va t e

s ec to r

involvement

in

j o i n t

ventures

with

Telecom CM

11187).

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TT CHMENT

G

23

CO ORDINATION COMMENTS

Prime Minis ter and Cabinet

The

Department

of

the

Prime

Minis t e r

and

Cabine t

notes

the

impl ica t ions of

the

Forward Est imates and of

changes

to

persona l

income

t ax for

f i sca l po l icy in 1989-90 and

beyond.

The Department cons ider s in consequence

t ha t

t

i s

necessary for

the 1989-90 Budget process

to

remain

f l e x ib l e and suppor t s

the immediate

commencement of

add i t iona l

reviews and acce le ra t ion of e x i s t i n g

reviews

where appropr ia te with r epor t s

to

be

ava i l ab le

by

end-February 1989.

Treasury

Treasury

suppor ts

the

recommendations

con ta ined

in the

Submission inc luding: tha t

add i t iona l

expendi ture reviews

be commissioned on a

no-commitment bas i s ;

t he proposed

t imetabl ing for

the complet ion of

reviews a l ready

underway;

and the

l i s t i ngs of p r i o r i t y new po l icy

proposa l s along with

o f f s e t t i n g

savings

by mid-March

1989.

[39]

Documents

1988-89 cabinet paper 6132