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MMMeeetttaaalllsss WWWeeeeeekkklllyyy A W e e k l y R e p o r t o n B a s e M e t a l s
KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call
PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT
Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close
Close %
Change Volume
Volume %
Change Open Interest
Open Interest
% Change
Copper 7020 7206.75 6879 6926 -0.27 173,415 -32.61 1,659 -59.51
Zinc 2110 2181 2034.5 2055 -1.72 77,054 -25.42 1,749 -39.44
Lead 2060 2137.5 1923 1940 -5.37 31,301 -39.05 755 -60.59
Nickel 22500 23650 21500 21555 -4.41 30,189 -41.98 501 -59.89
Aluminium 2099 2180 2055 2101 1.38 154,544 -7.33 4,152 -42.24
Copper 318 324.3 313.5 314.2 -1.04 509,648 -28.81 23,814 4.48
Zinc 96.8 97.8 92.3 92.95 -3.13 10,958 -5.96 1,015 61.11
Lead 93.5 96.15 87.95 88.45 -4.99 10,281 -26.63 1,373 92.84
Nickel 1033 1063.9 980.1 986.3 -3.14 27,905 -36.55 2,253 42.32
Aluminium 96.6 98.1 93.5 94.95 -0.73 1,714 -16.55 299 56.54
LME 3-mth
Forward
(USD/tonne)
MCX Futures
(Rs./Kg)
MARKET RECAP
In the previous week, metal prices fluctuated between gains and losses as the market was trying to judge the impact of
increased Inflation in China impelling chances of further tightening of monetary policy along with prevailing concerns of
Greece. Moreover, the European government’s plans austerity measures after the EU and the IMF pledged almost $1 trillion to
rescue indebted nations
UK and Spain government announced plans to cut swelling fiscal deficit. Later on, Portugal imposed temporary taxes and cut
the wages of top government officials to help narrow its budget deficit
Euro zone ministers agreed to a nearly $1 trillion aid package to tackle the debt crisis in euro-zone from spreading to other
member states. The package consists of 440 billion Euros in guarantees plus 60 billion Euros in the form of a stabilization fund
and an extra 250 billion Euros from the International monetary fund
Industrial production in China expanded 17.8% from a year earlier, down from 18.1% in March and 18.5% expected, and the
new Yuan loans for April increased to Yuan774 billon as compares to prior of Yuan510.7. The growing inflation, bank lending
exceeded estimates and record-jump in property prices, pressurize the government to raise interest rates and allow the
currency to appreciate
As per the Beijing-based customs office, the imports of copper and products into China, the world’s biggest consumer, were
436,345 tonnes in April-- 4.4% below March’s 456,240 tonnes and 9% more than the year-earlier 399,830 tonnes
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Wholesale inventories in March increased by 0.4% from February to $394.8 billion and were down 5.3% from a year ago. Sales
increased in March by 2.4% to $348.0 billion and are 15.8% higher than a year ago
The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services in March increased 2.5%, to $40.4 billion. Exports increased 3.2% to
$147.9 billion, and imports increased 3.1% to $188.3 billion
Initial jobless claims show improvement in the May 8 week slipped 4,000 to 444,000, a dip offset by a 4,000 upward revision to
the prior week. Continuing claims for the May 1 week rose slightly to 4.627 million while the average also rose slightly to 4.640
million
Import prices jumped a very steep 0.9% in April, inflated by a 3.3% rise in petroleum prices. Export prices overall jumped 1.2%
despite a 0.7% price decline for agricultural exports. April's overall gain is the largest in nearly two years
Retail sales in April 2010 increased 0.4% to $366.4 billion from March, while were up 8.8% from the April 2009 level
Business inventories rose 0.4% in March 2010 from February, but were still 5.0% below their level in March 2009
17 May 2010
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MMMeeetttaaalllsss WWWeeeeeekkklllyyy A W e e k l y R e p o r t o n B a s e M e t a l s
KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call
INDUSTRIAL UPDATES
As per the U.S. Commerce Department, the US has set preliminary anti-dumping duties on copper pipe from China and Mexico.
The industrial pipe joins a long list of Chinese goods that have been hit with U.S. duties in recent years to offset unfair pricing
practices or government subsidies
Nyrstar NV's Q1-2010 production rose by 48% to 265,000 tonnes of zinc due to the ramp-up of its Balen zinc smelter in
Belgium. The smelter had returned to full production at the end of Q1-2010
Vale Inco is proceeding with plans to increase nickel output at its strike bound operations of Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay, where
unionized production and maintenance workers have been on strike. Vale Inco Q1 nickel output totals 33000 tonnes
China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise to 5.4 million
tonnes this year. That’s good news for upstream zinc suppliers like Xstrata PLC and OZ Minerals Ltd. – both involved in the
development and production of zinc
China's 2010 aluminium capacity grow at 10-15%. The output this year may climb to more than 15 million tonnes and its
smelting capacity grow between 2 to 3 million tonnes. China's aluminium output was 13 million tonnes in 2009
Breakwater shut its Estatuas zinc mine in Chile pending a probe over the death of an employee after an accident at the mine
but no impact to its 2010 output target on high stock. Toqui is expected to produce 23,000 tonnes of zinc in 2010
OUTLOOK
Auto industry demand for aluminum is expected to improve in 2010, but the aerospace, construction and gas turbine markets
would decline as per Alcoa Inc, America's largest aluminum producer
The record high rise in property prices in China, has impelled the Chinese’s tax bureau to announce the expansion of its property
tax on commercial-use properties to residence by May 20
The mineworkers of Collahuasi mine-- the third largest Copper mine of Chile remain on strike for the week expected to cause
disruptions in the world refined Copper supplies. The mine produced 535000 tonnes of copper in 2009, equivalent to 3.3% of
world production. Mine’s daily production is 1300 tonnes, and strike has generated daily losses of about $ 9 million
The European Union has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of up to 20.6% on imports of aluminium wheels originating
from China following a complaint of unfair competition from European manufacturers
The data release from the US, include, Empire Manufacturing, Net Long-Term TIC Inflows, Housing Starts, Building Permits,
CPI, Leading Indicators, Initial Jobless Claims, and Continuing Claims. As per the Bloomberg expectations, a few data suggest
improvement from the prior levels and thus would help to boost metals, while others might be disconcerting
Next week, we expect base metals to trade low due to the ongoing concerns of debt issues. Prices are expected to get affected
till the things settle in Europe, soon after which the prices are likely to consolidate. The rally in dollar index makes the
currency denominated commodities dearer for overseas investors diverting their investments to safer avenues like Dollar,
Gold or Japanese Yen. Metals anticipate a range bound trade, bias on downside
Indices Last Week This Week % ChangeDow Jones Ind. Avg. 10380.43 10620.16 2.31%S&P 500 Index 1110.88 1135.68 2.23%FTSE 100 Index 5123.02 5262.85 2.73%Nikkie 225 10364.59 10462.51 0.94%Shanghai Composite 2688.38 2688.38 0.00%Sensex 16769.11 16994.60 1.34%
Currency Last Week This Week % ChangeDollar Index 84.45 86.095 1.95%
EUR/USD 1.2755 1.2358 -3.11%GBP/USD 1.4804 1.4536 -1.81%
USD/INR 45.4775 45.205 -0.60%
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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call
LME 3-Forward S $6500 R $7000
MCX- June S 295 R 319
Copper June MCX: Sell in the range of 316-319 targeting
309 then 305 stop loss above 324
LME 3-Forward S $ 21000 R $23000
6
MCX- May S 940 R 1040
Nickel May MCX: Sell at 1010 TP 970 then 960 stop loss above 1035
TECHNICAL PREFACE
LME COPPER
Copper 3 month LME prices continued its downtrend by
extending its previous trend and after making a high of
7206 it closed the weekly session at 6923 levels. Market
may expect the south ward trend for coming week since it
has broken trend line support connecting from 3200 to
7485. Moreover, on daily charts the prices are trading
below the (13, 22, 45) weekly EMA implying selling
pressure may continue for coming trading sessions. The
momentum indicator RSI (14) weekly have descended from
0.62 to 0.47 signaling bearish outlook for the week. As per
Fibonacci principles, a crucial support is seen at 6601
(38.2% of 8940- 2817 moves.) only on breach and sustain
below the same likely to test 6370 then 6046 levels.
However, on higher side the resistances are at 7217 then
7600 levels. On the other hand, supports are at 6708 then
6370 levels. Overall, from above analysis we expect market
to continue the bearish trend for the week
Recommendation: Copper 3-month LME: Sell at 7100
targeting 6850 then 6760 stop loss above 7360
LME NICKEL
Nickel 3 month LME prices plummeted by losing as much as
4.66% and after making a high of 23650 it closed the
session at 21555 levels. Fibonacci retracement shows a
crucial support at 20506 levels (27711 to 8850 moves)
breach and sustains below the same prices may test further
lower till 19300 levels. The momentum indicator RSI (14)
weekly have descended from 0.55 to 0.50 signaling bearish
outlook for the week. Furthermore, on daily chart, market
has broken a downward break out of “Bearish triangular
pattern” suggesting bearish outlook for this week.
However, the volume is not confirming the break out
indicating it may give a higher correction before resuming
the downtrend. On lower side, supports are at 21035 then
19890 levels. On the other hand, the resistances are at
23000 then 24340 levels. Overall, from above analysis
market may trade lower and recommends selling for the
week ahead
Recommendation: Nickel 3-month LME: Sell at 21900
targeting 21000 stop loss above 22400
0
MMMeeetttaaalllsss WWWeeeeeekkklllyyy A W e e k l y R e p o r t o n B a s e M e t a l s
KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call
TECHNICAL PREFACE
LME 3-Forward S $1870 R $2140
MCX- May S 81 R 90
LME 3-Forward S $2001 R $2181
MCX- May S 88 R 94
LME 3-Forward S $2050 R $2190
MCX- May S 90 R 97
ALUMINIUM
ZINC LEAD
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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call
INVENTORY UPDATE
The reporting period, for a day’s stock movement in and out of LME registered warehouses is from 16.30 of the previous day until
16.30 on the day to which the stock report refers. The stock report is then released for the market everyday at 9.00 of the following
day. In India, we get the report at 14:30 IST. Cancelled tonnage represents tonnage waiting for the owner’s instructions to the
warehouse company for removal from the warehouse, or possibly re-issue of warrants. These warrants are no longer freely
available for trading. Cancelled warrants ratio represents the percentage of cancelled tonnage from the total closing stock,
suggesting the amount of inventory actually marked for delivery on daily basis.
6500
6700
6900
7100
7300
7500
7700
7900
8100
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
0.055
0.06
0.065
3/3
0
4/1
4/5
4/7
4/9
4/1
3
4/1
5
4/1
9
4/2
1
4/2
3
4/2
7
4/2
9
5/4
5/6
5/1
0
Copper Cancelled Ratio LME Copper Cash ($/MT)
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
3/3
0
4/1
4/5
4/7
4/9
4/1
3
4/1
5
4/1
9
4/2
1
4/2
3
4/2
7
4/2
9
5/4
5/6
5/1
0
Nickel Cancelled Ratio LME Nickel Cash
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
3/3
0
4/1
4/5
4/7
4/9
4/1
3
4/1
5
4/1
9
4/2
1
4/2
3
4/2
7
4/2
9
5/4
5/6
5/1
0
Zinc Cancelled Ratio LME Zinc Cash
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
3/3
0
4/1
4/5
4/7
4/9
4/1
3
4/1
5
4/1
9
4/2
1
4/2
3
4/2
7
4/2
9
5/4
5/6
5/1
0
Lead Cancelled Ratio LME Lead Price ($/MT)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 490875 484075 -6800 -1.39%
Zinc 571800 569300 -2500 -0.44%
Aluminium 4506225 4478750 -27475 -0.61%
Lead 182975 185050 2075 1.13%
Nickel 144930 142080 -2850 -1.97%
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call
BASIS CHARTS
Backwardation is a market where spot prices exceed future prices while Contango is the opposite, where future prices
exceed spot prices. We have, here, considered LME Cash prices and LME 3-month forward contract. Contango seems to be
an obvious condition in the market as future prices tend to be higher because of cost-of-carry involved. The scale is:
$/tonne.
15
20
25
30
35
40
4/9
/09
4/2
7/0
9
5/1
5/0
9
6/2
/09
6/2
0/0
9
7/8
/09
7/2
6/0
9
8/1
3/0
9
8/3
1/0
9
9/1
8/0
9
10
/6/0
9
10
/24
/09
11
/11
/09
11
/29
/09
12
/17
/09
1/4
/10
1/2
2/1
0
2/9
/10
2/2
7/1
0
3/1
7/1
0
4/4
/10
4/2
2/1
0
5/1
0/1
0
Aluminium
Backwardation
Contango
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
6/8
/09
6/2
2/0
9
7/6
/09
7/2
0/0
9
8/3
/09
8/1
7/0
9
8/3
1/0
9
9/1
4/0
9
9/2
8/0
9
10
/12
/09
10
/26
/09
11
/9/0
9
11
/23
/09
12
/7/0
9
12
/21
/09
1/4
/10
1/1
8/1
0
2/1
/10
2/1
5/1
0
3/1
/10
3/1
5/1
0
3/2
9/1
0
4/1
2/1
0
4/2
6/1
0
5/1
0/1
0
Backwardation
Contango
Copper
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
6/8
/09
6/
22
/0
9
7/6
/09
7/2
0/0
9
8/3
/09
8/
17
/0
9
8/3
1/0
9
9/1
4/0
9
9/
28
/0
9
10
/12
/09
10
/26
/09
11
/9
/0
9
11
/23
/09
12
/7/0
9
12
/2
1/
09
1/4
/10
1/1
8/1
0
2/1
/10
2/
15
/1
0
3/1
/10
3/1
5/1
0
3/
29
/1
0
4/1
2/1
0
4/2
6/1
0
5/
10
/1
0
Backwardation
Contango
Lead
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
6/
8/
09
6/
22
/0
9
7/
6/
09
7/
20
/0
9
8/
3/
09
8/
17
/0
9
8/
31
/0
9
9/
14
/0
9
9/
28
/0
9
10
/1
2/
09
10
/2
6/
09
11
/9
/0
9
11
/2
3/
09
12
/7
/0
9
12
/2
1/
09
1/
4/
10
1/
18
/1
0
2/
1/
10
2/
15
/1
0
3/
1/
10
3/
15
/1
0
3/
29
/1
0
4/
12
/1
0
4/
26
/1
0
5/
10
/1
0
Backwardation
Contango
Nickel
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
6/8
/09
6/2
2/0
9
7/6
/09
7/2
0/0
9
8/3
/09
8/1
7/0
9
8/3
1/0
9
9/1
4/0
9
9/2
8/0
9
10
/12
/09
10
/26
/09
11
/9/0
9
11
/23
/09
12
/7/0
9
12
/21
/09
1/4
/10
1/1
8/1
0
2/1
/10
2/1
5/1
0
3/1
/10
3/1
5/1
0
3/2
9/1
0
4/1
2/1
0
4/2
6/1
0
5/1
0/1
0
Backwardation
Contango
Zinc
0
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COMEX MARKET PERFORMANCE
Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % Change
Copper 313.65 312.7 -0.95 -0.30%
PRICES (USD/LB)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % ChangeCopper 101220 101242 22 0.02%
WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Report- Copper
Non-Commercial 5/4/2010 5/11/2010 Change % Change
Long 42642 36092 -6550 -15.36%
Short 29152 25494 -3658 -12.55%
Spreading 23214 20005 -3209 -13.82%
Commercial
Long 62278 62451 173 0.28%
Short 75616 70969 -4647 -6.15%
Total
Long 128134 118548 -9586 -7.48%
Short 127982 116468 -11514 -9.00%
CFTC Report - Copper (In contracts)
SHANGHAI MARKET PERFORMANCE
Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % ChangeCopper 54980 56210 1230 2.24%
Zinc 16590 17995 1405 8.47%Aluminum 15410 16515 1105 7.17%
PRICES (CNY/MT)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 181140 173095 -8045 -4.44%
Zinc 262864 286420 23556 8.96%
Aluminium 433500 478294 44794 10.33%
WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
According to the US CFTC data, the market’s movement
was higher last week, while we saw heavy fall in the long
and short positions in Non-commercials sector. The overall
spread in non-commercial sector fell by 13.82% to 20,005
positions from the prior 23,214. However, in the
commercial sector, long positions rise by minuscule 0.28%
while short positions fell by 6.15%. Among the total group,
the long positions fell by 7.48% while the short positions by
9.00%. The market is expecting high volatility as the change
in long and short is almost equated. This suggests that
investors try to buy and hold for very short duration owing
to high volatility in the market.
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CALENDAR SPREAD
Calendar Spreads is the difference between the two futures contracts, far-month-contract and near-month-contract. For
Copper, we have considered June ‘10 and August ‘10 at MCX while for other 4 metals, May’10 and June‘10 contracts at MCX have
been taken into account for calculating calendar spreads.
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25 Aluminium Spread
Contango
Backwardation
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2Copper Spread
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5 Nickel Spread
Contango
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4 Lead SpreadContango
Backwardation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1Zinc Spread
Contango
Backwardation
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STEEL
Commodity Contracts Open High Low Close
Close %
Change Volume
Volume %
Change
Open
Interest
Open Interest %
Change
May 25020 25600 24610 25160 1.04% 112020 -26.09% 45030 -41.84%
June 25680 26080 25110 25680 1.34% 76670 36.45% 60680 88.04%
July 26140 26560 25700 26120 1.48% 7800 39.29% 6330 76.82%
Steel NCDEX
(Rs/tonnes)
The active steel June futures contract traded in tight range bound territories as no major movements across the physical and
financial markets have brought the ingot trading to stand still. Moreover, as the contract nears expiry, extended roll-over
could be seen in the market from May to June contract
On the industrial front, Furnaces at Rourkela & some parts of Orissa which were shutdown due to power price hike, seems to
be reaching an agreement, soon these furnaces are expected to streamline the productions
Government is at ease with prices to wade below Rs.26,000/tonnes, supporting the industry trends and costing of raw
materials. Moreover power shortage at the production centre, ample supply of raw material at lower prices is few factors that
are affecting the Steel prices on domestic front
Week ahead we expect Steel Long June NCDEX prices to move in range of 24800 to 26800
Supports: 25230, 24890 Resistances: 26340, 26770
24000
24750
25500
26250
27000
27750
28500
29250
30000
30750
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000Open Interest Volume Closing Price
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
590
610
630
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900 Open Interest Volumes Closing Prices
NCDEX- Steel Long PVO chart LME- 3-month Forwards Steel Billets
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000 Steel Spread
Contango
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000 Steel Spread
Contango
NCDEX Steel (June- May Calendar Spread) NCDEX Steel (July- June Calendar Spread)
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DATA RELEASES SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior
05/17/2010 18:00 US Empire Manufacturing MAY 30 31.86
05/17/2010 18:30 US Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR $50.0B $47.1B
05/17/2010 18:30 US Total Net TIC Flows MAR - - $9.0B
05/18/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) APR 0.40% 0.90%
05/18/2010 14:30 EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) MAY 38 46
05/18/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance MAR 5.0B 2.6B
05/18/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa MAR 4.4B 3.3B
05/18/2010 14:30 GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) MAY 47 53
05/18/2010 18:00 US Producer Price Index (MoM) APR 0.10% 0.70%
05/18/2010 18:00 US Housing Starts APR 650K 626K
05/18/2010 18:00 US Housing Starts MOM% APR 3.80% 1.60%
05/18/2010 18:00 US Building Permits APR 680K 685K
05/18/2010 18:00 US Building Permits MOM% APR 0.00% 7.50%
05/19/2010 14:30 EC Construction Output SA MoM MAR - - -3.30%
05/19/2010 18:00 US Consumer Price Index (MoM) APR 0.10% 0.10%
05/19/2010 23:30 US Minutes of FOMC Meeting 19-May
05/20/2010 11:30 GE Producer Prices (MoM) APR 0.60% 0.70%
05/20/2010 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 15-May 440K 444K
05/20/2010 18:00 US Continuing Claims 8-May 4610K 4627K
05/20/2010 19:30 US Philadelphia Fed. MAY 21.6 20.2
05/20/2010 19:30 US Leading Indicators APR 0.20% 1.40%
05/20/2010 19:30 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence MAY A -16 -15
05/21/2010 11:30 GE GDP s.a. (QOQ) 1Q F 0.20% 0.20%
05/21/2010 11:30 GE Private Consumption 1Q F -0.40% -1.00%
05/21/2010 11:30 GE Government Spending 1Q F 0.60% -0.60%
05/21/2010 11:30 GE Imports 1Q F 4.00% -1.80%
05/21/2010 11:30 GE Exports 1Q F 1.50% 3.00%
05/21/2010 11:30 GE Construction Investment 1Q -3.00% -0.50%
05/21/2010 11:30 GE Capital Investment 1Q F 0.60% -0.70%
05/21/2010 13:00 GE PMI Services MAY A 55.4 55.2
05/21/2010 13:00 GE PMI Manufacturing MAY A 61.1 61.5
05/21/2010 13:30 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA MAR - - -3.9B
05/21/2010 13:30 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa MAR - - -5.2B
05/21/2010 13:30 EC PMI Services MAY A 55.6 55.6
05/21/2010 13:30 EC PMI Manufacturing MAY A 57.4 57.6
05/21/2010 13:30 EC PMI Composite MAY A 57.2 57.3
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Prepared By:
Vinita Goyal Fundamental Analyst [email protected]
Vinod Technical Analyst [email protected]