11
M M e e t t a a l l s s W W e e e e k k l l y y A Weekly Report on Base Metals KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close Close % Change Volume Volume % Change Open Interest Open Interest % Change Copper 7020 7206.75 6879 6926 -0.27 173,415 -32.61 1,659 -59.51 Zinc 2110 2181 2034.5 2055 -1.72 77,054 -25.42 1,749 -39.44 Lead 2060 2137.5 1923 1940 -5.37 31,301 -39.05 755 -60.59 Nickel 22500 23650 21500 21555 -4.41 30,189 -41.98 501 -59.89 Aluminium 2099 2180 2055 2101 1.38 154,544 -7.33 4,152 -42.24 Copper 318 324.3 313.5 314.2 -1.04 509,648 -28.81 23,814 4.48 Zinc 96.8 97.8 92.3 92.95 -3.13 10,958 -5.96 1,015 61.11 Lead 93.5 96.15 87.95 88.45 -4.99 10,281 -26.63 1,373 92.84 Nickel 1033 1063.9 980.1 986.3 -3.14 27,905 -36.55 2,253 42.32 Aluminium 96.6 98.1 93.5 94.95 -0.73 1,714 -16.55 299 56.54 LME 3-mth Forward (USD/tonne) MCX Futures (Rs./Kg) MARKET RECAP In the previous week, metal prices fluctuated between gains and losses as the market was trying to judge the impact of increased Inflation in China impelling chances of further tightening of monetary policy along with prevailing concerns of Greece. Moreover, the European government’s plans austerity measures after the EU and the IMF pledged almost $1 trillion to rescue indebted nations UK and Spain government announced plans to cut swelling fiscal deficit. Later on, Portugal imposed temporary taxes and cut the wages of top government officials to help narrow its budget deficit Euro zone ministers agreed to a nearly $1 trillion aid package to tackle the debt crisis in euro-zone from spreading to other member states. The package consists of 440 billion Euros in guarantees plus 60 billion Euros in the form of a stabilization fund and an extra 250 billion Euros from the International monetary fund Industrial production in China expanded 17.8% from a year earlier, down from 18.1% in March and 18.5% expected, and the new Yuan loans for April increased to Yuan774 billon as compares to prior of Yuan510.7. The growing inflation, bank lending exceeded estimates and record-jump in property prices, pressurize the government to raise interest rates and allow the currency to appreciate As per the Beijing-based customs office, the imports of copper and products into China, the world’s biggest consumer, were 436,345 tonnes in April-- 4.4% below March’s 456,240 tonnes and 9% more than the year-earlier 399,830 tonnes ECONOMIC INDICATORS Wholesale inventories in March increased by 0.4% from February to $394.8 billion and were down 5.3% from a year ago. Sales increased in March by 2.4% to $348.0 billion and are 15.8% higher than a year ago The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services in March increased 2.5%, to $40.4 billion. Exports increased 3.2% to $147.9 billion, and imports increased 3.1% to $188.3 billion Initial jobless claims show improvement in the May 8 week slipped 4,000 to 444,000, a dip offset by a 4,000 upward revision to the prior week. Continuing claims for the May 1 week rose slightly to 4.627 million while the average also rose slightly to 4.640 million Import prices jumped a very steep 0.9% in April, inflated by a 3.3% rise in petroleum prices. Export prices overall jumped 1.2% despite a 0.7% price decline for agricultural exports. April's overall gain is the largest in nearly two years Retail sales in April 2010 increased 0.4% to $366.4 billion from March, while were up 8.8% from the April 2009 level Business inventories rose 0.4% in March 2010 from February, but were still 5.0% below their level in March 2009 17 May 2010

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Page 1: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

0

MMMeeetttaaalllsss WWWeeeeeekkklllyyy A W e e k l y R e p o r t o n B a s e M e t a l s

KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT

Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close

Close %

Change Volume

Volume %

Change Open Interest

Open Interest

% Change

Copper 7020 7206.75 6879 6926 -0.27 173,415 -32.61 1,659 -59.51

Zinc 2110 2181 2034.5 2055 -1.72 77,054 -25.42 1,749 -39.44

Lead 2060 2137.5 1923 1940 -5.37 31,301 -39.05 755 -60.59

Nickel 22500 23650 21500 21555 -4.41 30,189 -41.98 501 -59.89

Aluminium 2099 2180 2055 2101 1.38 154,544 -7.33 4,152 -42.24

Copper 318 324.3 313.5 314.2 -1.04 509,648 -28.81 23,814 4.48

Zinc 96.8 97.8 92.3 92.95 -3.13 10,958 -5.96 1,015 61.11

Lead 93.5 96.15 87.95 88.45 -4.99 10,281 -26.63 1,373 92.84

Nickel 1033 1063.9 980.1 986.3 -3.14 27,905 -36.55 2,253 42.32

Aluminium 96.6 98.1 93.5 94.95 -0.73 1,714 -16.55 299 56.54

LME 3-mth

Forward

(USD/tonne)

MCX Futures

(Rs./Kg)

MARKET RECAP

In the previous week, metal prices fluctuated between gains and losses as the market was trying to judge the impact of

increased Inflation in China impelling chances of further tightening of monetary policy along with prevailing concerns of

Greece. Moreover, the European government’s plans austerity measures after the EU and the IMF pledged almost $1 trillion to

rescue indebted nations

UK and Spain government announced plans to cut swelling fiscal deficit. Later on, Portugal imposed temporary taxes and cut

the wages of top government officials to help narrow its budget deficit

Euro zone ministers agreed to a nearly $1 trillion aid package to tackle the debt crisis in euro-zone from spreading to other

member states. The package consists of 440 billion Euros in guarantees plus 60 billion Euros in the form of a stabilization fund

and an extra 250 billion Euros from the International monetary fund

Industrial production in China expanded 17.8% from a year earlier, down from 18.1% in March and 18.5% expected, and the

new Yuan loans for April increased to Yuan774 billon as compares to prior of Yuan510.7. The growing inflation, bank lending

exceeded estimates and record-jump in property prices, pressurize the government to raise interest rates and allow the

currency to appreciate

As per the Beijing-based customs office, the imports of copper and products into China, the world’s biggest consumer, were

436,345 tonnes in April-- 4.4% below March’s 456,240 tonnes and 9% more than the year-earlier 399,830 tonnes

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Wholesale inventories in March increased by 0.4% from February to $394.8 billion and were down 5.3% from a year ago. Sales

increased in March by 2.4% to $348.0 billion and are 15.8% higher than a year ago

The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services in March increased 2.5%, to $40.4 billion. Exports increased 3.2% to

$147.9 billion, and imports increased 3.1% to $188.3 billion

Initial jobless claims show improvement in the May 8 week slipped 4,000 to 444,000, a dip offset by a 4,000 upward revision to

the prior week. Continuing claims for the May 1 week rose slightly to 4.627 million while the average also rose slightly to 4.640

million

Import prices jumped a very steep 0.9% in April, inflated by a 3.3% rise in petroleum prices. Export prices overall jumped 1.2%

despite a 0.7% price decline for agricultural exports. April's overall gain is the largest in nearly two years

Retail sales in April 2010 increased 0.4% to $366.4 billion from March, while were up 8.8% from the April 2009 level

Business inventories rose 0.4% in March 2010 from February, but were still 5.0% below their level in March 2009

17 May 2010

Page 2: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

0

MMMeeetttaaalllsss WWWeeeeeekkklllyyy A W e e k l y R e p o r t o n B a s e M e t a l s

KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

INDUSTRIAL UPDATES

As per the U.S. Commerce Department, the US has set preliminary anti-dumping duties on copper pipe from China and Mexico.

The industrial pipe joins a long list of Chinese goods that have been hit with U.S. duties in recent years to offset unfair pricing

practices or government subsidies

Nyrstar NV's Q1-2010 production rose by 48% to 265,000 tonnes of zinc due to the ramp-up of its Balen zinc smelter in

Belgium. The smelter had returned to full production at the end of Q1-2010

Vale Inco is proceeding with plans to increase nickel output at its strike bound operations of Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay, where

unionized production and maintenance workers have been on strike. Vale Inco Q1 nickel output totals 33000 tonnes

China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise to 5.4 million

tonnes this year. That’s good news for upstream zinc suppliers like Xstrata PLC and OZ Minerals Ltd. – both involved in the

development and production of zinc

China's 2010 aluminium capacity grow at 10-15%. The output this year may climb to more than 15 million tonnes and its

smelting capacity grow between 2 to 3 million tonnes. China's aluminium output was 13 million tonnes in 2009

Breakwater shut its Estatuas zinc mine in Chile pending a probe over the death of an employee after an accident at the mine

but no impact to its 2010 output target on high stock. Toqui is expected to produce 23,000 tonnes of zinc in 2010

OUTLOOK

Auto industry demand for aluminum is expected to improve in 2010, but the aerospace, construction and gas turbine markets

would decline as per Alcoa Inc, America's largest aluminum producer

The record high rise in property prices in China, has impelled the Chinese’s tax bureau to announce the expansion of its property

tax on commercial-use properties to residence by May 20

The mineworkers of Collahuasi mine-- the third largest Copper mine of Chile remain on strike for the week expected to cause

disruptions in the world refined Copper supplies. The mine produced 535000 tonnes of copper in 2009, equivalent to 3.3% of

world production. Mine’s daily production is 1300 tonnes, and strike has generated daily losses of about $ 9 million

The European Union has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of up to 20.6% on imports of aluminium wheels originating

from China following a complaint of unfair competition from European manufacturers

The data release from the US, include, Empire Manufacturing, Net Long-Term TIC Inflows, Housing Starts, Building Permits,

CPI, Leading Indicators, Initial Jobless Claims, and Continuing Claims. As per the Bloomberg expectations, a few data suggest

improvement from the prior levels and thus would help to boost metals, while others might be disconcerting

Next week, we expect base metals to trade low due to the ongoing concerns of debt issues. Prices are expected to get affected

till the things settle in Europe, soon after which the prices are likely to consolidate. The rally in dollar index makes the

currency denominated commodities dearer for overseas investors diverting their investments to safer avenues like Dollar,

Gold or Japanese Yen. Metals anticipate a range bound trade, bias on downside

Indices Last Week This Week % ChangeDow Jones Ind. Avg. 10380.43 10620.16 2.31%S&P 500 Index 1110.88 1135.68 2.23%FTSE 100 Index 5123.02 5262.85 2.73%Nikkie 225 10364.59 10462.51 0.94%Shanghai Composite 2688.38 2688.38 0.00%Sensex 16769.11 16994.60 1.34%

Currency Last Week This Week % ChangeDollar Index 84.45 86.095 1.95%

EUR/USD 1.2755 1.2358 -3.11%GBP/USD 1.4804 1.4536 -1.81%

USD/INR 45.4775 45.205 -0.60%

Page 3: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

0

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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

LME 3-Forward S $6500 R $7000

MCX- June S 295 R 319

Copper June MCX: Sell in the range of 316-319 targeting

309 then 305 stop loss above 324

LME 3-Forward S $ 21000 R $23000

6

MCX- May S 940 R 1040

Nickel May MCX: Sell at 1010 TP 970 then 960 stop loss above 1035

TECHNICAL PREFACE

LME COPPER

Copper 3 month LME prices continued its downtrend by

extending its previous trend and after making a high of

7206 it closed the weekly session at 6923 levels. Market

may expect the south ward trend for coming week since it

has broken trend line support connecting from 3200 to

7485. Moreover, on daily charts the prices are trading

below the (13, 22, 45) weekly EMA implying selling

pressure may continue for coming trading sessions. The

momentum indicator RSI (14) weekly have descended from

0.62 to 0.47 signaling bearish outlook for the week. As per

Fibonacci principles, a crucial support is seen at 6601

(38.2% of 8940- 2817 moves.) only on breach and sustain

below the same likely to test 6370 then 6046 levels.

However, on higher side the resistances are at 7217 then

7600 levels. On the other hand, supports are at 6708 then

6370 levels. Overall, from above analysis we expect market

to continue the bearish trend for the week

Recommendation: Copper 3-month LME: Sell at 7100

targeting 6850 then 6760 stop loss above 7360

LME NICKEL

Nickel 3 month LME prices plummeted by losing as much as

4.66% and after making a high of 23650 it closed the

session at 21555 levels. Fibonacci retracement shows a

crucial support at 20506 levels (27711 to 8850 moves)

breach and sustains below the same prices may test further

lower till 19300 levels. The momentum indicator RSI (14)

weekly have descended from 0.55 to 0.50 signaling bearish

outlook for the week. Furthermore, on daily chart, market

has broken a downward break out of “Bearish triangular

pattern” suggesting bearish outlook for this week.

However, the volume is not confirming the break out

indicating it may give a higher correction before resuming

the downtrend. On lower side, supports are at 21035 then

19890 levels. On the other hand, the resistances are at

23000 then 24340 levels. Overall, from above analysis

market may trade lower and recommends selling for the

week ahead

Recommendation: Nickel 3-month LME: Sell at 21900

targeting 21000 stop loss above 22400

Page 4: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

TECHNICAL PREFACE

LME 3-Forward S $1870 R $2140

MCX- May S 81 R 90

LME 3-Forward S $2001 R $2181

MCX- May S 88 R 94

LME 3-Forward S $2050 R $2190

MCX- May S 90 R 97

ALUMINIUM

ZINC LEAD

Page 5: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

0

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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

INVENTORY UPDATE

The reporting period, for a day’s stock movement in and out of LME registered warehouses is from 16.30 of the previous day until

16.30 on the day to which the stock report refers. The stock report is then released for the market everyday at 9.00 of the following

day. In India, we get the report at 14:30 IST. Cancelled tonnage represents tonnage waiting for the owner’s instructions to the

warehouse company for removal from the warehouse, or possibly re-issue of warrants. These warrants are no longer freely

available for trading. Cancelled warrants ratio represents the percentage of cancelled tonnage from the total closing stock,

suggesting the amount of inventory actually marked for delivery on daily basis.

6500

6700

6900

7100

7300

7500

7700

7900

8100

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

0.06

0.065

3/3

0

4/1

4/5

4/7

4/9

4/1

3

4/1

5

4/1

9

4/2

1

4/2

3

4/2

7

4/2

9

5/4

5/6

5/1

0

Copper Cancelled Ratio LME Copper Cash ($/MT)

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

27000

28000

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

3/3

0

4/1

4/5

4/7

4/9

4/1

3

4/1

5

4/1

9

4/2

1

4/2

3

4/2

7

4/2

9

5/4

5/6

5/1

0

Nickel Cancelled Ratio LME Nickel Cash

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

2550

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

3/3

0

4/1

4/5

4/7

4/9

4/1

3

4/1

5

4/1

9

4/2

1

4/2

3

4/2

7

4/2

9

5/4

5/6

5/1

0

Zinc Cancelled Ratio LME Zinc Cash

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

3/3

0

4/1

4/5

4/7

4/9

4/1

3

4/1

5

4/1

9

4/2

1

4/2

3

4/2

7

4/2

9

5/4

5/6

5/1

0

Lead Cancelled Ratio LME Lead Price ($/MT)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 490875 484075 -6800 -1.39%

Zinc 571800 569300 -2500 -0.44%

Aluminium 4506225 4478750 -27475 -0.61%

Lead 182975 185050 2075 1.13%

Nickel 144930 142080 -2850 -1.97%

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

Page 6: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

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KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

BASIS CHARTS

Backwardation is a market where spot prices exceed future prices while Contango is the opposite, where future prices

exceed spot prices. We have, here, considered LME Cash prices and LME 3-month forward contract. Contango seems to be

an obvious condition in the market as future prices tend to be higher because of cost-of-carry involved. The scale is:

$/tonne.

15

20

25

30

35

40

4/9

/09

4/2

7/0

9

5/1

5/0

9

6/2

/09

6/2

0/0

9

7/8

/09

7/2

6/0

9

8/1

3/0

9

8/3

1/0

9

9/1

8/0

9

10

/6/0

9

10

/24

/09

11

/11

/09

11

/29

/09

12

/17

/09

1/4

/10

1/2

2/1

0

2/9

/10

2/2

7/1

0

3/1

7/1

0

4/4

/10

4/2

2/1

0

5/1

0/1

0

Aluminium

Backwardation

Contango

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

6/8

/09

6/2

2/0

9

7/6

/09

7/2

0/0

9

8/3

/09

8/1

7/0

9

8/3

1/0

9

9/1

4/0

9

9/2

8/0

9

10

/12

/09

10

/26

/09

11

/9/0

9

11

/23

/09

12

/7/0

9

12

/21

/09

1/4

/10

1/1

8/1

0

2/1

/10

2/1

5/1

0

3/1

/10

3/1

5/1

0

3/2

9/1

0

4/1

2/1

0

4/2

6/1

0

5/1

0/1

0

Backwardation

Contango

Copper

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

6/8

/09

6/

22

/0

9

7/6

/09

7/2

0/0

9

8/3

/09

8/

17

/0

9

8/3

1/0

9

9/1

4/0

9

9/

28

/0

9

10

/12

/09

10

/26

/09

11

/9

/0

9

11

/23

/09

12

/7/0

9

12

/2

1/

09

1/4

/10

1/1

8/1

0

2/1

/10

2/

15

/1

0

3/1

/10

3/1

5/1

0

3/

29

/1

0

4/1

2/1

0

4/2

6/1

0

5/

10

/1

0

Backwardation

Contango

Lead

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

6/

8/

09

6/

22

/0

9

7/

6/

09

7/

20

/0

9

8/

3/

09

8/

17

/0

9

8/

31

/0

9

9/

14

/0

9

9/

28

/0

9

10

/1

2/

09

10

/2

6/

09

11

/9

/0

9

11

/2

3/

09

12

/7

/0

9

12

/2

1/

09

1/

4/

10

1/

18

/1

0

2/

1/

10

2/

15

/1

0

3/

1/

10

3/

15

/1

0

3/

29

/1

0

4/

12

/1

0

4/

26

/1

0

5/

10

/1

0

Backwardation

Contango

Nickel

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

6/8

/09

6/2

2/0

9

7/6

/09

7/2

0/0

9

8/3

/09

8/1

7/0

9

8/3

1/0

9

9/1

4/0

9

9/2

8/0

9

10

/12

/09

10

/26

/09

11

/9/0

9

11

/23

/09

12

/7/0

9

12

/21

/09

1/4

/10

1/1

8/1

0

2/1

/10

2/1

5/1

0

3/1

/10

3/1

5/1

0

3/2

9/1

0

4/1

2/1

0

4/2

6/1

0

5/1

0/1

0

Backwardation

Contango

Zinc

Page 7: 17 May 2010 LME 3-mth (USD/tonne) M MM eeetttaaa lllsss ... · China’s net imports of refined zinc were 15,401 tonnes in February. China’s zinc consumption is forecast to rise

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COMEX MARKET PERFORMANCE

Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % Change

Copper 313.65 312.7 -0.95 -0.30%

PRICES (USD/LB)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % ChangeCopper 101220 101242 22 0.02%

WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Report- Copper

Non-Commercial 5/4/2010 5/11/2010 Change % Change

Long 42642 36092 -6550 -15.36%

Short 29152 25494 -3658 -12.55%

Spreading 23214 20005 -3209 -13.82%

Commercial

Long 62278 62451 173 0.28%

Short 75616 70969 -4647 -6.15%

Total

Long 128134 118548 -9586 -7.48%

Short 127982 116468 -11514 -9.00%

CFTC Report - Copper (In contracts)

SHANGHAI MARKET PERFORMANCE

Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % ChangeCopper 54980 56210 1230 2.24%

Zinc 16590 17995 1405 8.47%Aluminum 15410 16515 1105 7.17%

PRICES (CNY/MT)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 181140 173095 -8045 -4.44%

Zinc 262864 286420 23556 8.96%

Aluminium 433500 478294 44794 10.33%

WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)

According to the US CFTC data, the market’s movement

was higher last week, while we saw heavy fall in the long

and short positions in Non-commercials sector. The overall

spread in non-commercial sector fell by 13.82% to 20,005

positions from the prior 23,214. However, in the

commercial sector, long positions rise by minuscule 0.28%

while short positions fell by 6.15%. Among the total group,

the long positions fell by 7.48% while the short positions by

9.00%. The market is expecting high volatility as the change

in long and short is almost equated. This suggests that

investors try to buy and hold for very short duration owing

to high volatility in the market.

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CALENDAR SPREAD

Calendar Spreads is the difference between the two futures contracts, far-month-contract and near-month-contract. For

Copper, we have considered June ‘10 and August ‘10 at MCX while for other 4 metals, May’10 and June‘10 contracts at MCX have

been taken into account for calculating calendar spreads.

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25 Aluminium Spread

Contango

Backwardation

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2Copper Spread

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5 Nickel Spread

Contango

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4 Lead SpreadContango

Backwardation

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1Zinc Spread

Contango

Backwardation

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STEEL

Commodity Contracts Open High Low Close

Close %

Change Volume

Volume %

Change

Open

Interest

Open Interest %

Change

May 25020 25600 24610 25160 1.04% 112020 -26.09% 45030 -41.84%

June 25680 26080 25110 25680 1.34% 76670 36.45% 60680 88.04%

July 26140 26560 25700 26120 1.48% 7800 39.29% 6330 76.82%

Steel NCDEX

(Rs/tonnes)

The active steel June futures contract traded in tight range bound territories as no major movements across the physical and

financial markets have brought the ingot trading to stand still. Moreover, as the contract nears expiry, extended roll-over

could be seen in the market from May to June contract

On the industrial front, Furnaces at Rourkela & some parts of Orissa which were shutdown due to power price hike, seems to

be reaching an agreement, soon these furnaces are expected to streamline the productions

Government is at ease with prices to wade below Rs.26,000/tonnes, supporting the industry trends and costing of raw

materials. Moreover power shortage at the production centre, ample supply of raw material at lower prices is few factors that

are affecting the Steel prices on domestic front

Week ahead we expect Steel Long June NCDEX prices to move in range of 24800 to 26800

Supports: 25230, 24890 Resistances: 26340, 26770

24000

24750

25500

26250

27000

27750

28500

29250

30000

30750

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000Open Interest Volume Closing Price

450

470

490

510

530

550

570

590

610

630

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 Open Interest Volumes Closing Prices

NCDEX- Steel Long PVO chart LME- 3-month Forwards Steel Billets

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000 Steel Spread

Contango

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000 Steel Spread

Contango

NCDEX Steel (June- May Calendar Spread) NCDEX Steel (July- June Calendar Spread)

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DATA RELEASES SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior

05/17/2010 18:00 US Empire Manufacturing MAY 30 31.86

05/17/2010 18:30 US Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR $50.0B $47.1B

05/17/2010 18:30 US Total Net TIC Flows MAR - - $9.0B

05/18/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) APR 0.40% 0.90%

05/18/2010 14:30 EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) MAY 38 46

05/18/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance MAR 5.0B 2.6B

05/18/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa MAR 4.4B 3.3B

05/18/2010 14:30 GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) MAY 47 53

05/18/2010 18:00 US Producer Price Index (MoM) APR 0.10% 0.70%

05/18/2010 18:00 US Housing Starts APR 650K 626K

05/18/2010 18:00 US Housing Starts MOM% APR 3.80% 1.60%

05/18/2010 18:00 US Building Permits APR 680K 685K

05/18/2010 18:00 US Building Permits MOM% APR 0.00% 7.50%

05/19/2010 14:30 EC Construction Output SA MoM MAR - - -3.30%

05/19/2010 18:00 US Consumer Price Index (MoM) APR 0.10% 0.10%

05/19/2010 23:30 US Minutes of FOMC Meeting 19-May

05/20/2010 11:30 GE Producer Prices (MoM) APR 0.60% 0.70%

05/20/2010 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 15-May 440K 444K

05/20/2010 18:00 US Continuing Claims 8-May 4610K 4627K

05/20/2010 19:30 US Philadelphia Fed. MAY 21.6 20.2

05/20/2010 19:30 US Leading Indicators APR 0.20% 1.40%

05/20/2010 19:30 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence MAY A -16 -15

05/21/2010 11:30 GE GDP s.a. (QOQ) 1Q F 0.20% 0.20%

05/21/2010 11:30 GE Private Consumption 1Q F -0.40% -1.00%

05/21/2010 11:30 GE Government Spending 1Q F 0.60% -0.60%

05/21/2010 11:30 GE Imports 1Q F 4.00% -1.80%

05/21/2010 11:30 GE Exports 1Q F 1.50% 3.00%

05/21/2010 11:30 GE Construction Investment 1Q -3.00% -0.50%

05/21/2010 11:30 GE Capital Investment 1Q F 0.60% -0.70%

05/21/2010 13:00 GE PMI Services MAY A 55.4 55.2

05/21/2010 13:00 GE PMI Manufacturing MAY A 61.1 61.5

05/21/2010 13:30 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA MAR - - -3.9B

05/21/2010 13:30 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa MAR - - -5.2B

05/21/2010 13:30 EC PMI Services MAY A 55.6 55.6

05/21/2010 13:30 EC PMI Manufacturing MAY A 57.4 57.6

05/21/2010 13:30 EC PMI Composite MAY A 57.2 57.3

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and its affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the

opinions expressed above. The above mentioned opinions are based on the information which is believed to be accurate and no assurance can be given

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Prepared By:

Vinita Goyal Fundamental Analyst [email protected]

Vinod Technical Analyst [email protected]