The Impact of China’s ‘New Normal’ on the Global Copper ... › 2015 › metals › down › 3.pdf · Global Copper, Lead Zinc and Nickel Market . China’s ‘New Normal’

1

Don Smale Secretary-General

International Lead and Zinc Study Group

International Copper Study Group International Nickel Study Group

CNIA/Antaike China Nonferrous Metals Forum London, United Kingdom, 13 October 2015

The Impact of China’s ‘New Normal’ on the Global Copper, Lead Zinc and Nickel Market

China’s ‘New Normal’

Slower but better quality growth

Rebalancing and diversifying economy

Shift to consumer-led demand

Focus on the environment and sustainability

More equitable distribution of benefits

Importance of innovation emphasised

2 International Copper Study Group

INTERNATIONAL STUDY GROUPS INTRODUCTION

Shared headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal, since 2006

Intergovernmental organizations consisting of member governments plus the European Union representing metals producing and using countries

International Lead and Zinc Study Group: established in 1959, has presently 30 members

International Copper Study Group: established in 1992, has presently 24 members

International Nickel Study Group: established in 1990, has presently 15 members


STUDY GROUPS MAIN OBJECTIVES & FUNCTIONS

To conduct consultations and exchanges of information on the international copper, nickel, lead & zinc economies.

To improve statistics on these metals.

To increase market transparency.

To undertake studies on issues of interest to the Groups.

To consider special problems or difficulties that exist or may arise in these metal’s international economies. The Study Groups endeavour to provide its membership with the most accurate, comprehensive and timely information on capacities, production, usage, trade, stocks, prices, technologies, research and development, and other areas that may influence the supply and demand for copper, nickel, lead & zinc.


Markets: forecasts of supply and demand for metals a year ahead

Trade: monitoring of international trade in metals

Environmental policy: sharing information on approaches to regulation

Industry Advisory Panel: metals industry executives provide input to member governments

Invite observer countries, industry and observer organizations such as UNCTAD, World Bank, UNIDO, Common Fund for Commodities and metals associations

STUDY GROUPS FORUMS FOR DISCUSSION


ICSG Membership

Australia

Belgium

Chile

China

Finland

European Union

France

Germany

Greece

India

Italy

Japan

Iran

Spain

Sweden

United States

Zambia

Luxembourg

Mexico

Peru

Poland

Portugal

Russian Fed.

Serbia

Membership open to any country involved in copper production, usage, or trade. 24 member governments (>80% of global copper industry)

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ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS

Copper Bulletin (monthly): includes annual and monthly statistics, by country, on copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper usage and trade, as well as stocks and exchange prices, providing a global view of supply and demand.

Statistical Yearbook : As above, covering the past 10 years.

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World Copper Market Forecast: Prepared twice a year for the following two years.

Copper Factbook: The Factbook provides a broad overview of all facets of copper, from production to trade, usage, recycling and more. It is designed to promote copper and educate readers about the importance and contribution of copper to society. Available in ICSG Website, in PDF and in hard copies.


ICSG MAIN PUBLICATIONS/OUTPUTS Directory of Copper Mines & Plants (semi-annual): The Directory of Copper Mines and Plants highlights current capacity and provides a five year outlook of forecasted capacity for over 1,000 existing and planned copper mines, smelters and refineries on a country by country basis. Salient details for each operation are included and the Directory separates operations between Operating, Developing, Exploration and Feasibility stages.

Directory of Copper & Copper Alloy Fabricators - First Use (annual): This directory provides a global overview of companies and plants involved in the first use of copper. First users are semis fabricators that process refinery shapes into semi-finished copper & copper alloy products. The Directory covers wire rod plants, ingot makers, master alloy plants, brass mills, and electrodeposited copper foil mills.

ICSG Online Statistical Database: The ICSG maintains one of the world's most complete historical and current databases with statistics on copper production capacities, data on copper production, consumption, stocks, prices, recycling and trade for copper products. The database is accessed via ICSG website. Specific data extraction tools enable users to download the data they require with the layout best suited for their analysis into an Excel spreadsheet.


9 9

ILZSG Membership

Membership open to any country involved in lead and/or zinc production, usage, or trade.

30 members (>85% of global lead/zinc industry):

Australia

Belgium

Brazil

Bulgaria

Canada

China

Finland

France

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Iran

Ireland

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Korea Rep. Mexico

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Thailand

Turkey

United States

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Peru

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Russian Fed.

10

ILZSG Main Publications

Lead and Zinc Statistics: Monthly Statistical Bulletin (including access to Interactive Statistical Database – data 1988-2014)

Lead and Zinc Interactive Mine and Smelter Database

Lead and Zinc New Mine and Smelter Projects 2015

Zinc Recovery from Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Dust 2015

Lead-Acid Industrial Batteries 2015

The Chinese Primary and Secondary Lead Metal Sector 2014

Environment and Health Controls on Lead 2014

Environment and Health Controls on Zinc 2014

Risk Factors in Developing Mineral and Metal Projects 2014

World Directory: Lead and Zinc Mines 2014

World Directory: Primary & Secondary Zinc Plants 2014

The By-Products of Copper, Zinc, Lead and Nickel

China Lead Acid Battery Market (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)

China Zinc Recycling Industry (prepared for ILZSG by BGRIMM)

50% Discount

For companies based in member

countries

INSG Member Countries

European Union

Greece

Portugal

Brazil

France

Japan

Sweden

Australia

Finland

Italy

Russian

Federation

Cuba

Germany

Norway

United

Kingdom

12

INSG Main Publications

World Nickel Statistics - Monthly Bulletin and Yearbook (includes access to Online Statistical Database)

World Directory of Nickel Production Facilities 2015 (July 2015)

Primary Nickel Usage: New Frontiers in China (March 2015, prepared for INSG by Antaike)

Nickel – A Surface Technology Material 2014 (July 2014, prepared for INSG by Heinz Pariser)

China's Nickel Mine and Refined Nickel Production 2014 (March 2014, prepared for INSG by BGRIMM)

Cobalt as a By-Product of Copper and Nickel (March 2014)

Report on Taxation and Fiscal Incentives of Copper, Zinc, Lead And Nickel (January 2014)

Report on Risk Factors (January 2014)

Other publications

Up to 50% discount

For companies based in member

countries

13

Review and Outlook for Copper

14

2014 World Copper Reserves & Mine Production (contained copper metal)

Identifyed Resources 2,100 Mt

Reserves 700 Mt

1/ Undiscovered resources not including deep sea nodules and land-based and submarine massive sulfides Source: USGS (resources/reserves data) and ICSG (capacity/production data)

Not to scale

Mine Capacity 21.7 Mt Mine

Production 18.7 Mt

Total Resources (identified and undiscovered1)

5,600 million tonnes (Mt)

International Copper Study Group

World Copper Reserves 2014 Breakdown

• Despite increased consumption of copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more copper available to the world than at any other time in the past.

Chile, Australia and Peru account for half of the current World Copper Reserves reported by USGS

15

Chile30%

Australia13%Peru

10%United States

5%

Mexico5%

China4%

Russia4%

Indonesia4%

Poland4%

DRC3%

Zambia3%

Other15%

Source: USGS

16

Average annual grow rate in the last century: 4% Average annual grow rate in the last decade: 2.3 %

Average annual grow rate in this decade: 2.8% Source: ICSG

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

World Copper Mine Production, 1900-2015 (thousand metric tonnes copper)

Source: ICSG

Concentrates SX-EW

17

Market changed substantially since last 5 months FALLING COPPER PRICE

PRODUCERS REACTING with PRODUCTION CUTS

EXTREME WEARTHER CONDITIONS (El Niño impact)

CHINA SLOWDOWN (New Normal?)

WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH REVISED DOWNWARDS

Issues led to revisions in previous forecasts for 2015/2016

Market changed substantially in last 5 months

FALLING COPPER PRICE The Copper price fell from 6200US$/t at the April meeting to around 5000US$/t currently It reached the lowest level since Jul 2009 on 24th August (4888US$/t) The 2015 average to date (5700$/t) is the lowest since 2009 and prices declined by 20% since the beginning of the year

18

Cu price since ICSG April Meeting Cu price since 2008 crisis

475052505750625067507250775082508750

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US$/tLME Copper Price

2007-2015*

*2015 to date

4,750

5,000

5,250

5,500

5,750

6,000

6,250

6,500

23/A

prM

ay15

Jun1

5

Jul1

5

Aug

15

Sep

15US$/t

LME Copper Price(daily 23/Apr - 30/Sep 2015)

Market changed substantially in last 5 months

PRODUCERS REACTION TO FALLING COPPER PRICES: Reduction in capital expenditure Cuts in planned production Savings in operating, administrative and exploration costs Deferral in project investment Temporary closures Increased efforts to avoid further decline in company share prices

19

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

(000

t C

u)

Mine projects currently under feasibility

Mines currently in development

Mines currently operating (incl. expansions & closures)

Copper Price (US$/t)

World Copper Mine Production Capacity Trend vs Copper Price

Financial Crisis

201 5 copper price is avg Jan-Sep

Source: ICSG

Market changed substantially in last 5 months ANNOUNCED PRICE-RELATED PRODUCTION CUTS

20

Country Mine Operator Process 2014 production

(kt Cu)

Announcement date

Action Duration

USA Miami Freeport SX-EW 26 end Aug 15 closure

USA Tyrone Freeport SX-EW 43 end Aug 15 50% cut mining rates

Chile El Abra Freeport/ Codelco SX-EW 166 end Aug 15 50% reduction of mining and

stacking rates

Chile CollahuasiAnglo American/ Glencore

Concs & SX-EW 445 & 25 end Sep 15 Cut in SX-EW production of

30ktpy NA

USA Ray Asarco Concs & SX-EW 53 & 29 end Aug 15

40% cut in output (indefinite shutdown of concentrator and reduction in stripping for leach operation)

adjustments may be made as market conditionswarrant.

CongoKatanga (Kamoto) Glencore SX-EW 160 Sep-15 suspension of operations 18 month

ZambiaMopani mines Glencore Concs &

SX-EW 110 Sep-15 suspension of operations 18 month

ZambiaMopani refinery Glencore Eletrolytic/

SX-EW 185 Sep-15suspension of operations (might continue concs toll smelting and refined production)

18 month

NamibiaOtjihase and Matchless Weatherly Concs 6 Sep-15 closure to be reviwed when market

conditions improve

Botswana Mowana African Copper Concs 10 Mar-15 C&M NA

These plans will continue to be reviewed and additional adjustments may be made

as market conditions warrant

Source: ICSG

Market changed substantially since last 5 months

EXTREMER WEARTHER CONDITIONS (El Niño impact) Drought in the central part of Chile affecting the mining industry after operations were affected by severe rain at the beginning of 2015 Los Bronces total net impact of water constraints in 1H2015 is 28kt Cu. Centinela copper in concentrate production for 1H2015 was 4.7% lower reflecting lower throughput as a result of the heavy rains in the Atacama Desert in March. Los Pelambres production impacted by protesters that blocked access to the mine for ten days seeking action to help alleviate the current drought conditions in the region. (-15kt Cu) In 3Q2015 Grasberg milling operations impacted by a reduction in process water available under El Nino conditions (-10kt Cu) OK Tedi mine closed in August as dry weather is preventing navigation in the Fly river to access the mine (-30kt Cu) In Zambia reduced rainfall let to electricity shortage with power being reduced by 30% to the mining industry. Mines and plants operating at reduced levels, Sentinel new mine project process plant shut in July

21 Kt= Thousand Tons,

22

CHINA DATA WEAKER THAN EXPECTED China represents 45% of the world demand (1% change in Chinese usage growth is currently equivalent to around 100kt) August PMI fell to the lowest level (47 points) since March 2009 Worse than expected industrial copper demand in July and August led analysts to revise downwards usage growth rates Lower electronic products exports, lower aircon sales, slower growth in auto production, lower auto production, sluggish house market But strong growth is seen in the infrastructure and power industry as China is accelerating spending in power distribution

Forecast 2015 2016April 15 4.2% 4.5%Sep 15 3.7% 3.7%

China Indutrial UsageForecast Revisions

ICSG Survey avg

Market changed substantially since last 5 months

But beside production cuts/temporary closures ... some new mines are expected to start/expand in 2015-2016

23

Country 2015 2016Armenia Teghout 30kt (Conc.), started Jan 2015

Canada Red Chris 40kt (conc), production Feb 2015

Chile Antucoya 85kt (SXEW)

ChinaJiaMa phase II 15kt exp in 2016 (Conc.), Shaxi

16kt (Conc.), Duobaoshan 10kt exp (Conc.), Zijinshang 18kt exp (conc)

DRC Kalumines 40kt (conc)Sicomines 50kt (SX-EW), Kipoi 25kt exp

(SXEW), Frontier 20kt exp (conc)

Iran Darehzar 26kt (Conc.)

Kazakhstan Bozshakol 100kt (Conc.) , Aktogay 15kt (SXEW)

Mexico Boleo 56kt (SXEW),Buenavista new SXEW III plant started 2014 reaching full cap 120kt in 1Q2016 (SXEW),

Concentrator 188kt exp in 4Q15 (Conc) Myanmar Monywa exp 40 to 50kt (SX-EW) Letpadaung 100kt (SXEW) Namibia Tschudi 17kt (SXEW)

Peru Constancia 120kt (Conc.) started end 2014 with production in 2015

Las Bambas 400kt (Conc.), Cerro Verde II 270ktpy exp (conc)

Romania Baita Bihor 25kt (Conc.)Saudi Arabia Jabal Sayid 45kt (Conc.) Spain Rio Tinto Mines 37kt (Conc.)USA Morenci 100kt exp (conc)

Zambia Sentinel 250kt (conc) Chambishi 50kt expansion (Conc.),

Kt= Thousand Tons, Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants

2015/16 World Copper Mine Production Forecast

24

Recent supply constrains referred led to a downward revision in mine production growths since last ICSG forecast (April) After balancing supply constrains and additional output from new or expanded projects, ICSG expected that world copper mine production might grow by around 1% in 2015 (4% expected in April) and 4% 2016 (5% in April), reaching 18.7Mt copper this year and increasing to 19.5Mt in 2016.

Most of the projects starting in 2014 and also in 2015/2016 are producing concentrates which combined with the recovery in concentrate production in Indonesia will lead to higher growth rates in world concentrate production In 2015, Indonesia and Peru will be the biggest contributors to mine production growth with production declining in Chile, the USA, Zambia and the DRC In 2016 Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Zambia will be the biggest contributors to growth DRC 2015/2016 output impacted by announced production cuts

Source: ICSG

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Concentrate production growth

SX-EW production growth

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Indonesia

Peru

Chile

Zambia

Mexico

United States

China

DRC

Tonnage change - Mine Production ('000t Cu)

20152016

25

Distribution of Copper Mine Production by Country (1990 vs 2016)

Chile to continue the biggest copper mine producer in the world United States losing share and China and Peru increasing its share Africa maintaining the same share at around 10% but more than doubling production to 2Mt copper China share increased from 3% in 1990 to 9% in 2014 and in 2016 will be sharing with Peru the 2nd place as biggest world producer

Source: ICSG

Chile , 17.2%

China , 3.2%

Peru , 3.3%

United States , 17.2%

Australia , 3.5%

Zambia , 4.6%Congo , 3.9%

Russian Fed. , 8.7%

Canada , 8.6%

Indonesia , 1.8%

Mexico , 3.6%

Poland , 3.6%

Kazakhstan , 3.4%

Iran , 0.7%Brazil , 0.4%

Others, 16.3% 1990 Chile, 29.1%

China, 9.1%

Peru, 8.9%United States,

6.6%

Australia, 4.9%

Zambia, 4.4%Congo, 4.2%

Russian Fed., 3.7%

Canada, 3.5%

Indonesia, 4.4%

Mexico, 3.5%

Poland, 2.1%

Kazakhstan, 2.5%

Iran, 1.4% Brazil, 1.8%Others , 9.9% 2016

2015/16 World Refined Copper Production Forecast

26

Chinese refined production is continuing its expansion trend although at more “New normal” lower growth levels than the 14% average annual growth of the last three years (avg 6% for 2015/2016) China will still remain by far the biggest contributor to refined production growth in 2015/2016 Chile and the DRC production expected to decline due to decreases in SX-EW output SX-EW expansion in Zambia and Mexico contributing to world growth After strong growth of 7% in 2014, world copper refined production expected to grow by around 1% and 3% respectively in 2015 and 2016

Source: ICSG

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

'00

0t

Cu

World Refined Production

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000

China

Zambia

Mexico

DRC

Indonesia

Korean Rep.

United States

EU

Japan

Chile

Tonnage change - Refined Production ('000t Cu)

2015

2016

演示者

演示文稿备注

27

Distribution of Copper Refined Production by Country (1990 vs 2016)

Source: ICSG

Strong growth in Chinese refined production, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to 36% by 2016 United States and Japan losing share Africa maintaining the same share at around 6% but more than doubling production to 1.4Mt copper

China, 5.2%

Chile, 11.1%

Japan, 9.3%

United States, 18.7%

Russian Fed., 7.4%India, 0.4%Zambia, 4.1%

Germany, 4.9%

Korean Rep., 1.7%

Poland, 3.2%

Australia, 2.5%

Spain, 1.6%Belgium, 3.1%

Kazakhstan, 3.4%

Peru, 1.7%

Others, 21.7% 1990

China, 36.4%

Chile, 10.6%

Japan, 6.6%United States,

4.5%

Russian Fed., 3.8%

India, 3.3%

Zambia, 2.3%

Germany, 2.9%

Korean Rep., 2.9%

Poland, 2.2%Australia, 2.1%

Spain, 1.8%Belgium, 1.6%

Kazakhstan, 1.6%

Peru, 1.6%

Others, 15.8% 2016

2015/2016 World Refined Copper Usage Forecast

Following growth of around 7% in 2014, ICSG expects world apparent refined usage in 2015 to decline by 1.2%. This is mainly because apparent demand in China is expected to remain essentially flat, although underlying “real” demand growth in China is estimated by others at around 3-4% (lower than the 4.5-5% anticipated growth in April). On the other hand, usage in the rest of the world is expected to decline by 1.5% impacted lower growth in the world economy For 2016, the growth in world apparent refined usage is expected at around 3% with underlying Chinese industrial demand growth expected at around 4%. Usage in the rest of the world is expected to increase by about 2%.

28 Source: ICSG

REGIONS COPPER USAGE

('000T Cu) 2014 2015 2016

(t) (%) (t) (%) (t) (%)

Africa 247 0 -0.1% 257 11 4.4% 263 6 2.2%

N.America 2,266 -51 -2.2% 2,319 53 2.3% 2,364 45 1.9%

Latin America 579 -33 -5.3% 546 -33 -5.8% 568 22 4.0%

Asean-10 and Oceania 908 -8 -0.9% 932 24 2.7% 1,004 72 7.7%

Asia ex Asean/CIS 14,498 1,454 11.1% 14,420 -78 -0.5% 14,939 519 3.6%

Asia-CIS 102 1 1.0% 103 1 0.5% 103 0 0.5%

EU 3,179 182 6.1% 3,191 13 0.4% 3,195 3 0.1%

Europe Others 1,115 -38 -3.3% 860 -255 -22.8% 875 15 1.8%

WORLD 22,893 1,507 7.0% 22,628 -265 -1.2% 23,310 682 3.0%

WORLD ex-China 11,898 172 1.5% 11,691 -207 -1.7% 11,921 230 2.0%

growth growth growth

29

Distribution of Copper Refined Usage by Country (1990 vs 2016)

Source: ICSG

Strong growth in Chinese apparent refined usage, up from 5% of world share in 1990 to around 49% by 2016 EU share in world usage declining from 29% in 1990 to 12% in 2016 United States share in world usage declining from 20% in 1990 to 8% in 2016 Japan share in world usage declining from around 15% in 1990 to 5% in 2016

China , 5%

United States , 20%

Germany , 9%

Japan , 14.5%

Korean Rep. , 2.9%Russian fed. ,

5.5%India , 1.2%

Italy , 4.4%

Turkey , 0.9%

Brazil , 1.3%Taiwan , 2.5%

Spain , 1.3%Mexico , 1.2%

Belgium , 3.6%

Others, 26%

1990

China, 49%

United States, 8%

Germany, 5%

Japan, 4.5%

Korean Rep., 3.2%

Russian fed., 1.5%

India, 2.1%Italy, 2.4%

Turkey, 2.0%Brazil, 1.6%

Taiwan, 1.9%Spain, 1.5%

Mexico, 1.6%Belgium, 1.1%

Others , 15% 2016


Major Uses of Copper: Usage by Region and End Use Sector, 2014

Basis: copper content, thousand metric tonnes Source: International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) and International Copper Association (ICA)

Americas14%

Asia62%

ROW5%

Europe19%

Industrial12%

Transport12%

Infrastructure15%

Building Construction

30%

Equipment31%

ICSG World Copper forecast (Oct 2015) – summary table

ICSG projections for 2015 indicate that the market should essentially remain balanced, while in 2016 ICSG forecasts a small deficit of around 130Kt as demand growth outpaces production growth. This compares with a surplus of 360Kt and 230Kt for 2015 and 2016, respectively, forecast at our April 2015 meeting. The revisions reflect substantial changes in market conditions since April 2015. Although a downward revision has been made to global usage in view of lower than anticipated growth in China, larger downward adjustments have been made to production as a result of recent announcements of production cuts.

The International Copper Study Group recognizes that numerous factors create significant uncertainty, and that the global market balances could vary from those projected currently

1/ Based on a formula for the difference between the projected copper availability in concentrates and the projected use in primary refined production; 2/ Allowance for supply disruptions based on average ICSG forecast deviations for previous 5 years

31

Thousand tonnes Cu

REGIONS

(1000 t) 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

Africa 1,945 1,877 2,006 1,357 1,372 1,349 247 257 263N.America 2,595 2,520 2,741 1,812 1,789 1,894 2,266 2,319 2,364Latin America 7,562 7,705 8,167 3,344 3,191 3,178 579 546 568Asean-10 / Oceania 1,726 1,926 2,270 1,002 934 1,088 908 932 1,004Asia ex Asean/CIS 2,363 2,407 2,564 10,798 11,392 11,868 14,498 14,420 14,939Asia-CIS 578 616 679 370 432 478 102 103 103EU 845 854 873 2,741 2,713 2,696 3,179 3,191 3,195Europe Others 914 925 935 1,056 1,082 1,087 1,115 860 875

TOTAL 18,527 18,830 20,234 22,479 22,904 23,637 22,893 22,628 23,310

World adjusted 1/ 2/ 18,527 18,751 19,542 22,479 22,669 23,183 22,893 22,628 23,310

% change 1.2% 4.2% 0.8% 2.3% -1.2% 3.0%

World Refined Balance (China apparant usage basis) -414 41 -127

MINE PRODUCTION REFINED PRODUCTION REFINED USAGE

FORECAST TO 2016

32 Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015

The data presented in ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants reflects copper production capacity or capability, not necessarily meaning effective production rates or production forecasts. Actual production may in fact differ significantly from capacity as many factors may negatively impact output levels.

World mine production capacity expected to grow to 27.4 Mt of copper in 2018 from 21.7 Mt in 2014. Concentrate to grow to 21.7Mt and SX-EW to 5.7 Mt.

16,090 16,930 17,854 19,207 20,414 21,741

4,697 4,789 4,9345,187

5,4415,681

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

('000

t Cu)

Projected Trend in Annual World Copper Mine Production Capacity by Product Type

Concentrates SX-EW

演示者

演示文稿备注


13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(000

t Cu)

Mine projects currently under feasibility

Mines currently in development

Mines currently operating (incl. expansions & closures)

World Copper Mine Production Capacity Trend by Current Mine Status

Until 2018, 2.9 Mt additional capacities will come from expansion/ramp-up output at mines currently operating (including mines that started in 2014) and around 2.8 Mt will originate in new projects (including 2.2 Mt from projects already in development)


Africa5%

Asia17%

Europe11%

North America

20%

South America

39%

Oceania8%

SHARE in WORLD

2000

Chart 5A Africa13%

Asia22%

Europe8%

North America

14%

South America

38%

Oceania5%

SHARE in WORLD

2018

Chart 5B

0 500 1,0001,5002,0002,500

Africa

Asia

Europe

North America

South America

Oceania

GROWTH 2014-2018

Chart 5CSouth America will continue to be the region with the largest copper mining production capacity and will maintain it’s share in world copper production capacity at around 38%. However much of this is owed to the rapid expansion of Peru copper mining industry Africa and Asia are increasing their share from 5% and 17% in 2000 to 13% and 22% by 2018 respectively due to the start-up of new projects.

Regional Trend in World Copper Mine Production Capacity

Chile will retain its position as the biggest copper mine producer in the world but Peru is the leading contributor to world growth

Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 35

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Peru

Zam

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Mex

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Mon

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Chi

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Con

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Chi

le

Kaz

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tan

Aus

tral

ia

Iran

Uni

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Stat

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Afg

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Bra

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Mya

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Rus

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Oth

ers

('000

t Cu)

SX-EWConcentrates

Projected Copper Mine Production Capacity Increase by Country - 2014/2018

66% of World growth


0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

Brazil Argentina Iran Mongolia Myanmar Papua New Guinea

Philippines Congo

Kt CuProjected Cu Mine Production Capacity at Countries that were

Producing at Low/medium Levels last decade

2000 2014 2018 End decade/Next decade (estim.)

In the last decade we have observed a geographical enlargement of the copper mining industry.

There has been growing interest in developing copper projects in countries that up to now are not mining copper or that had limited production.

Additional output is also arising in countries that have only started copper mine during the last decade or early this decade


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2004 2008 2012 2014 2018

Kt Cu

Projected Cu Mine Production Capacity at Countries that Started Copper Mining in the Last Decade

Kyrgyzstan

Eritrea

Azerbaijan

Bolivia

Saudi Arabia

Dominican Rep.

Oman

Mauritania

Spain

Laos

Pakistan

Growing interest in developing projects in countries that up to now are not mining copper


050

100150200250300350400450500

Kt Cu

2015 2018 Medium Term Future (estim.)* Exploration projects


Resolution

El Pachon

Tampakan

Udokan

Radomiro Tomic (Sulphides)Cobre Panama

Kamoa La Granja

Agua Rica

Wafi Golpu

Quellaveco

El RelinchoDeziwa & Ecaille C

El Galeno

Galore CreekReko Diq

El Arco

Haquira

Rio BlancoPanantzaVizcachitas

Junin

Pumpkin Hollow

Altar

Frieda RiverMichiquillay

Pebble

Los Azules

El Morro

Sentinel Taca Taca

YanderaRosemont

Shaft CreekKing King

CañariacoQulongTia Maria Conga

Constancia CaspicheCerro CasaleMina Justa

Aynak

Las Bambas

Santo Domingo

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

COPPER MINE PROJECTS (cap ≥110Ktpy Cu)

Total annual Capacity of Listed Projects in this chart : 9.5Mt Cu

Projects in this box planned for after 2023


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Oly

mpi

c D

am

Sal

obo

And

ina

Col

lahu

asi

Que

brad

a B

lanc

a

Spe

nce

El A

bra

Esp

eran

za

Esc

ondi

da

Kam

oto

Bue

navi

sta

del C

obre

Cer

ro V

erde

(Sul

phid

e)

Toqu

epal

a

Kan

sans

hi

(000

t C

u)

2014 Capacity Expansion by 2018 Future currently planned expansion

Capacity Expansion at Selected Mines

Expanded capacity at listed mines = 2.7 Mt Cu


Looking into the future mining companies are starting now to look at possible offshore deep-sea minerals exploration. The oceans represent around 70% of the world surface and its floor is believed to contain important mineral resources among which are copper, zinc, nickel, manganese, gold and silver. To meet increasing copper demand, the discovery and exploration of new resources will be crucial and sea floor deposits could represent an important opportunity for additional supply. However, the challenge is to be able to exploit those deposits efficiently and turn them into economically-viable operations ICSG identified three off-shore copper projects that could be producing in the near future. Clipperton Fracture Zone in the International Waters of the Pacific Ocean, between Hawaii and Mexico, Atlantis II Bacin Project in Red Sea, and Solwara 1 project located in the Bismarck Sea, Papua New Guinea Other zones where interest in exploration opportunities has risen are mid-Atlantic Ridge and Southwest Indian Ridge.

Source: Nautilus Minerals Inc website

Offshore Deep-Sea Minerals Exploration

China will continue to increase its smelting capacity through expansions and new projects. Indonesia new mining law on banning ore exports leading to the development of new smelter projects in the country In most countries, the increase in smelting production capacity until 2018 is mainly due to expansions at existing plants but some new smelters projects are planned in China, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, and Zambia. Beyond 2018, a series of potential smelter projects have been announced with no firm confirmation yet.

42 Source: ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants – June 2015 42

-500-250

0250500750

1,0001,2501,5001,750

Chin

a

Zam

bia

Mex

ico

Iran

Phili

ppin

es

Indo

nesi

a

Aust

ralia

Oth

ers

Indo

nesi

a

DRC

Pote

ntia

l (1)

('000

t Cu)

Projected Copper Smelter Production Capacity Increase by Country

(1) Include announced projects that are not yet approved or have been put on hold in India, Mongolia, Egypt and Saudi Arabia

Expected increase until 2018 and after 2018


Until 2018, world copper refinery capacity expected to grow by 2.9 Mt to 30.2 Mt. 2Mt of the expansion expected to come from electrolytic refineries and almost 1 Mt from electrowinning capacity. Supremacy of Asia over the other regions (currently 47% of total world capacity) Africa copper refined capacity almost tripled from 2000 to 2014 and is expected to increase further until 2018 (all in the form of electrowinning production)

816

3,596 3,3884,879

3,803

6052,459

3,522 3,953

14,907

4,583

7410

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Africa North America South America

Asia Europe Oceania

('000

t Cu)

WORLD COPPER REFINED CAPACITY BY REGION - 2000/2014/2018

2000

2014

2018


China is by far the biggest contributor to the growth with a strong increase of around 1Mt, representing 38% of the world growth in the period. The DRC and Mexico will be important contributors too These 3 countries represent almost 70% of the world growth

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

Chin

a

Mex

ico

Cong

o

Iran

Peru

Indo

nesi

a

Phili

ppin

es

Mya

nmar

Zam

bia

Oth

ers

('000

t Cu)

Electrowinning

Electrolytic

Projected World Copper Refined Capacity Increase by Country - 2014/2018

68% of World growth


The data presented in ICSG Directory of Copper Mines and Plants reflects copper production capacity or capability, not necessarily meaning effective production rates or production forecasts. Actual production may in fact differ significantly from capacity as many factors may negatively impact output levels. Economic and market conditions, as well as technological and business factors, may also result in production levels that vary from the indicated capacity: production levels may be affected by operational failures, unforeseen cuts in production and closures or by the delay or cancellation of projects.

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

%

'000

T Cu

MINE PRODUCTION CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES

World Mine Production World Mine Production Capacity Mine Capacity Utilization (%)

www.insg.org 46

Review and Outlook for Nickel

www.insg.org 47

Plenty of nickel reserves available to the world

Resources: 130 million tonnes (Mt)

Mine Production

2.1 Mt

Reserves 81 Mt

Not to scale

Source: USGS, INSG

2014

www.insg.org 48

World Nickel Ore Production

(f) forecast October 2015

Africa7%

Americas25%

Indonesia6%

Philippines19%

Other Asia7%

Europe12%

Oceania24%

Asia41%

2016 f

Africa5%Americas

33%

Indonesia10%

Philippines6%

Other Asia5%

Europe23%

Oceania18%

Asia18%

2006

www.insg.org 49

World Primary Nickel Production (1/2)

in 1000 tonnes


www.insg.org 50

World Primary Nickel Production (2/2)


Africa5%

Americas16%

China P.R.28%

Other Asia17%

Europe23%

Oceania11%

Asia44%

2016 f

Africa4%Americas

23%

China P.R.10%

Other Asia13%

Europe38%

Oceania12%

Asia21%

2006

www.insg.org 51

NPI Production in China(Kt)

Source: Antaike, SMM, INSG estimates

AVG. 2015 = 34kt/month

www.insg.org 52

China NPI production and Imports of Nickel Ore and

Concentrates

Source: China Customs, INSG estimates

www.insg.org 53

China NPI production and Imports of Ferro-nickel


www.insg.org 54

China NPI production and Imports of Unwrought Nickel


www.insg.org 55

World Primary Nickel Usage (consumption) (1/2)

in 1000 tonnes


www.insg.org 56

World Primary Nickel Usage (consumption) (2/2)


Africa1%

Americas10%

China P.R.52%

Other Asia19%

Europe18%

Oceania0.1%

Asia70%

2016 f

Africa3%

Americas13%

China P.R.18%

Other Asia31%

Europe35%

Oceania0.2%

Asia45%

2006

www.insg.org 57

World Primary Nickel Balance - annual

in 1000 tonnes


www.insg.org 58

First-use of nickel - 2014

Source: Heinz Pariser

www.insg.org 59

8.8 10.0 8.7 8.3 6.4 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.6

2.73.0

2.6 2.31.9

2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8

9.610.1

9.38.4

7.5

9.0 8.8 9.3 9.3 9.3

3.2

5.37.2

6.98.8

11.3 14.116.1

19.021.7

24.5

28.7 28.1

26.2 24.9

31.133.6

35.938.5

41.7 42.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015e

EuroAfrica Americas Asia w/o China China CEE

World Stainless Steel Melting Production

Source: ISSF

www.insg.org 60

Nickel projects Directory 2015

Ore & Concentrate

Intermediate Products

Refined products

Committed Developments 211,500 210,650 782,000

Likely Project Developments 220,300 58,400 114,000

Potential Project Developments 240,700 46,600 488,000

NPI Committed Developments - - 127,800

NPI Likely / Potential Developments - - 249,000

Capacity (Ni content, t/y)

www.insg.org 61

New Nickel Capacity

Note: no NPI projects included.

Project Name / Country Product Mode Estimated Production

Projected Total Production

Remarks

Ambatovy / Madagascar Class I Ramp Up ≈ 50,000 60,000 Open market

Long Harbour / Canada Class I Ramp Up ≈ 15,000 50,000 Mainly replacement

Tagaung Taung / Myanmar FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 21,000 23,000 China

Koniambo / New Caledonia FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 10,000 40,000 Open market

Onça Puma / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 25,000 28,000 Open market

Barro Alto / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up ≈ 20,000 40,000 Open market

Goro / New Caledonia Semi / Class I Ramp Up ≈ 20,000 60,000 Australia & China

Ramu / PNG Semi Ramp Up ≈ 26,000 30,000 China & Other

Raventhorpe / Australia Semi Ramp Up ≈ 26,000 39,000 Australia & Other

Taganito / The Philippines Semi Ramp Up ≈ 30,000 35,000 Japan

Ban Phuc/Vietnam Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 8,000 10,000 China

Santa Rita / Brazil Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 20,000 25,000 Brazil & Finland

Eagle/USA Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 26,000 26,000 Open market

Kevitsa / Finland Conc. Ramp Up ≈ 6,000 10,000 Open market

www.insg.org 62

World Nickel Ore Production 2013 to 2016 (f)

in 1000 tonnes

Area 2013 2014 % change

2015 (f)

% change

2016 (f)

% change

Africa 120.1 136.7 13.8 145.2 6.2 153.2 5.5

America 500.9 510.9 2.0 545.0 6.7 567.0 4.0

Asia 1264.6 719.0 -43.1 685.2 -4.7 713.0 4.1

Europe 317.4 325.2 2.5 278.4 -14.4 279.4 0.4

Oceania 409.5 443.8 8.4 445.9 0.5 530.6 19.0

Total 2612.5 2135.6 -18.3 2099.7 -1.7 2243.2 6.8


www.insg.org 63

World Primary Nickel Production 2013 to 2016 (f)

in 1000 tonnes


2015 (f)

% change

2016 (f)

% change

Africa 59.0 75.2 27.5 84.3 12.1 93.0 10.3

America 293.3 294.8 0.5 295.9 0.4 306.0 3.4

Asia 922.4 940.5 2.0 904.5 -3.8 877.5 -3.0

Europe 497.8 483.5 -2.9 462.9 -4.3 445.7 -3.7

Oceania 189.9 199.8 5.2 206.4 3.3 220.0 6.6

Total 1962.4 1993.8 1.6 1954.0 -2.0 1942.2 -0.6


www.insg.org 64

World Primary Nickel Usage 2013 to 2016 (f)

in 1000 tonnes


2015 (f)

% change

2016 (f)

% change

Africa 22.9 21.4 -6.6 22.6 5.6 23.8 5.3

America 174.8 181.9 4.1 182.3 0.2 192.4 5.5

Asia 1233.6 1303.0 5.6 1347.8 3.4 1392.6 3.3

Europe 350.8 354.1 0.9 349.7 -1.2 353.4 1.1

Oceania 2.7 2.7 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.8 3.7

Total 1784.8 1863.1 4.4 1905.1 2.3 1965.0 3.1


www.insg.org 65

The impact of Asia and China Nickel Usage (Consumption)

Asia: 47% China: 15%

Asia: 70% China: 51%

www.insg.org 66

Final Remarks • China’s stainless industry has expanded rapidly in recent years. China

economy is moving from investment driven growth to a more sustainable model centred on consumption, innovation and price mechanism. Key policy changes are: curb overcapacity, protect the environment, allocate resources according to the price mechanism. This will have a medium-long term effect on stainless steel production.

• The increase of NPI production in China has been in recent years the real game changer in the nickel market. Its gradual reduction due to the Indonesian ban on ore export will require the use of alternative raw material sources, at least in the short term.

• What effect will the investments in new downstream projects in Indonesia have on the world nickel supply/demand balance and ultimately on the nickel price in coming years?

67

Review and Outlook for Lead & Zinc

68

World Lead Reserves 2014

Resources: >2000 million tonnes (Mt)

Reserve Base 170 Mt

Mine Production

5.0 Mt

Reserves 87 Mt

Sources: USGS, ILZSG

Not to scale

contained lead metal

Australia 40%

China 16%

USA 6%

Peru 8%

Mexico 6%

India 3%

Russia 11%

Other 10%

69 69

World Lead Reserves 2014 Breakdown

Source: USGS

• Despite increased consumption of lead produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more lead available to the world than at any other time in the past

70

World Zinc Reserves 2014

Resources: about 1900 million tonnes (Mt)

Reserve Base 480 Mt

Mine Production

13.3 Mt

Reserves 230 Mt

Sources: USGS, ILZSG

Not to scale

contained zinc metal

71 71

World Zinc Reserves 2014 Breakdown

Source: USGS

Australia 27%

China 19% Peru

13%

Kazakhstan 4%

Mexico 7%

USA 4%

Canada 3%

Other 23%

• Despite increased consumption of zinc produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown more, and there is more zinc available to the world than at any other time in the past

72 72

Lead Mine Supply 1966-2016f

Source: ILZSG

73

Breakdown of Lead Mine Production By Continent, 2014

Europe 8% Africa

2%

America 21%

Asia 54%

Oceania 15%

Source: ILZSG

74

Distribution of Lead Mine Supply

Peru 8.8% USA

14.8%

China 21.4%

Australia 21.1%

Other 11.8%

Europe 12.1%

Canada 4.8%

Mexico 5.2%

Peru 5.6%

USA 7.5%

China 47.7%

Australia 14.6%

Other 11.3%

Europe 8.3% Canada

0.1%

Mexico 5.0%

2004 2014

Source: ILZSG

75

Selected Recent Lead Mine Openings and Closures

Openings:

Paroo Station, Australia George Fisher, Australia (expansion) McArthur River, Australia (expansion) Garpenburg, Sweden (expansion) Kayar, India

Closures:

Brunswick, Canada Paroo Station, Australia

Annual Capacity*

85,000t 36,000t 51,000t 20,000t 15,000t

-55,000t -85,000t

*Pb Metal contained

2013 2014 2014 2014 2014

2013 2015

Source: New Mines and Smelters 2014 and 2015 Reports, ILZSG

76 76

Zinc Mine Supply 1966-2016f

Source: ILZSG

77

Breakdown of Zinc Mine Production By Continent, 2014

Europe 8%

Africa 2%

America 29%

Asia 49%

Oceania 12%

Source: ILZSG

78

Distribution of Zinc Mine Supply

Peru 14.3%

China 21.3% Australi

15.2%

Other 27.1%

Europe 10.6%

Canada 8.3% India

3.3%

Peru 9.9%

China 36.6%

Australia 11.6%

Other 26.1%

Europe 7.7%

Canada 2.7% India

5.3%

2004 2014

Source: ILZSG

Australia

79

The End of Century -

Selected Zinc Mine Closures 2013 to 2016

Mine Brunswick, Canada

Perseverance, Canada

Lisheen, Ireland

Century, Australia

Bukowno Olkusz, Poland

Skorpion, Namibia

Annual Capacity 240,000t

115,000t

175,000t

510,000t

70,000

154,000t

Closure

2013

2013

2015

2015

2016

2016

80

Selected Recent Zinc Mine Openings Mine

Perkoa, Burkina Faso

Bracemac-McLeod, Canada

Valardena, Mexico

George Fisher, Australia (expansion)

McArthur River, Australia (expansion)

Kyzyl Tashtygskoe, Russia

Garpenburg, Sweden (expansion)

Pend Oreille, United States

Annual Capacity (Zn contained)

95,000t

90,000t

90,000t

64,000t

125,000t

90,000t

60,000t

44,000t

Opened

2013

2013

2013

2014

2014

2014

2014

2014


81

Selected Committed Additions to Zinc Mine Capacity

Mine

Dugald River, Australia

Lady Loretta, Australia (expansion)

Halfmile Lake, Canada

Caribou, Canada

Cerro Lindo, Peru (expansion)

Ozernoye, Russia

Gamsberg, South Africa

Shalkiya, Kazakhstan

Annual Capacity (Zn contained)

210,000t

47,000t

55,000t

42,000t

45,000t

350,000t

250,000t

110,000t

Scheduled Opening

2017

2016

2016

2015

2015

2018/19

2018

2018


82

Selected Zinc Mine Projects Under Consideration

Mine

Oued-Amizour (Tala Hamza), Algeria

San Gregorio, Peru

Selwyn (Howards Pass), Canada

Izok Lake, Canada

Bisha, Eritrea

Gergarub, Namibia

Khnaiguiyah, Saudi Arabia

Mehdiabad, Iran

Citronen, Greenland

Estimated Annual Capacity (Zinc contained)

164,000t

105,000t

100,000t

80,000t

90,000t

100,000t

80,000t

400,000t

170,000t

Possible Opening

2019/20

2017

2020

2018

2017

2018

2018

2019

2018


More Zinc will be Recovered from EAF Dust

Befesa

Horsehead Corporation (new plant in North Carolina opened in May 2014)

ZincOx Resources

Global Steel Dust

Japan

83

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15

SHFE China Producers + Consumers + LME LME Cash Settlement Price

84

Lead Stocks and Prices Oct 2010 – Oct 2015

Source: ILZSG / LME

tonnes US $ per tonne

monthly average

85

World Lead Demand Forecast

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Source: ILZSG

ILZSG Forecast

•2015 - Global -0.7% - China -0.6% - Ex China -0.7%

•2016 - Global 2.6% - China 2.6% - Ex China 2.7%

Global Annual Change

86 86

Demand from E-bike Sector May Have Peaked E-bike production, China ‘000 units

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Using lithium-ion

Using lead-acid

Source: NBS, CRU, BGRIMM

87

World Lead Mine Supply Forecast (Glencore 9th October production cut not factored in)

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Source: ILZSG

Global Annual Change ILZSG Forecast


•2016 - Global 1.2%

- China 3.1% - Ex China -0.4%

88

World Lead Metal Supply Forecast

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Source: ILZSG

Global Annual Change

ILZSG Forecast



89

World Refined Lead Metal Balance

Source: ILZSG

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15

SHFE + SRB China Producers + Consumers + LME LME Cash Settlement Price

90

Zinc Stocks and Prices Oct 2010 – Oct 2015

Source: ILZSG / LME

tonnes US $ per tonne

monthly average

91

World Zinc Metal Demand Forecast

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Source: ILZSG



•2016 - Global 3.3%

- China 4.9% - Ex China 2.0%

92

Chinese Galvanized Sheet Production 1993 – 2015f

Source: NBS, Wood Mackenzie

93

World Zinc Mine Supply Forecast (Glencore 9th October production cut not factored in)

0.0%

1.3%

2.5%

3.8%

5.0%

2012 2013f 2014 2015f 2016f

Source: ILZSG


•2015 - Global 0.3% - China 1.9% - Ex China -0.6%

•2016 - Global 1.8% - China 7.8% - Ex China -1.8%

94

World Zinc Metal Supply Forecast

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f

Source: ILZSG




95

Zinc Metal World Balance

Source: ILZSG

96

● ICSG: 9 - 10 March 2016

in conjunction with Metal Bulletin International Copper Conference, Lisbon, Portugal

● INSG & ILZSG: 25 - 27 April 2016

including a Joint INSG/ILZSG Seminar

Next Study Group Meetings in Lisbon, Portugal

Documents

The Impact of China’s ‘New Normal’ on the Global Copper ... › 2015 › metals › down › 3.pdf · Global Copper, Lead Zinc and Nickel Market . China’s ‘New Normal’