Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10

1

H thng h tr ra quyt nh qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc: Th nghim phn tch qun l p akmi 4

ng Th Ba*,1, Phm Th Minh Hnh2 1Trng i hc Cng Ngh, i hc Quc gia H Ni,

144 Xun Thy, Cu Giy, H Ni, Vit Nam 2Vin C hc, Vin Hn lm Khoa hc v Cng ngh Vit Nam,

264 i Cn, Ba nh, H Ni, Vit Nam

Nhn ngy 28 thng 02 nm 2013 Chnh sa ngy 18 thng 4 nm 2013; chp nhn ng ngy 20 thng 6 nm 2013

Tm tt: Qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc phc v pht trin bn vng ang l nhu cu thc t. Tuy nhin y l cng vic phc tp, a lnh vc, lin quan n nhiu i tng v vy rt cn c mt cng c h tr. Bi bo ny trnh by tm tt cch tip cn xy dng chng trnh h tr ra quyt nh qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc (HTRQ) quy m lu vc hin ang c nghin cu v ng dng trn th gii. Trn c s , mt chng trnh HTRQ c ng gi di dng phn mm my tnh vi giao din ting Vit c xy dng. minh ha cho phng php v chng trnh, mt bi ton th nghim cho qun l xy dng p akmi 4 c thc hin. Cc phng n v tiu ch nh gi da trn quy hoch pht trin kinh t-x hi ca TP. Nng v Quy hoch Thy in lu vc sng Vu Gia-Thu Bn, tnh Qung Nam. akmi 4 l mt cng trnh thy in ln trn h thng sng Vu Gia-Thu Bn, c tm nh hng n i sng v mi trng lu vc sng. V vy rt cn thit c mt nghin cu su hn cho cng trnh thy in ny nhm phc v qun l ti nguyn nc trn lu vc sng.

T kha: H tr ra quyt nh, phn tch a tiu ch, qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc.

1. t vn *

Nc l ti nguyn v cng qu gi nhng khng phi v tn. Mi quyt nh lin quan n s dng ti nguyn nc u c nh hng rng ri v su sc n mi mt ca cuc sng x hi. Nhiu c gng trong phm vi vng, quc gia, chu lc v th gii c thc hin nhm s dng hp l v bn vng ti nguyn

______

* Tc gi lin h. T: 84-4-37549667

Email: badt@vnu.edu.vn

nc. Tuy nhin kt qu t c cn t, vn tim n nhiu mu thun, nguy c gy xung t trong khai thc, s dng ti nguyn nc gia cc i tng s dng.

Trc tnh hnh , trn th gii, mt s h thng h tr ra quyt nh c pht trin, c th tha mn mt s nhu cu nht nh cho qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc nh cc h thng tr gip ra quyt nh kim sot l; ng ph s c trn ha cht; Phn phi nc; Qun l cht lng nc [1,3,4,5,6,8,9,14]. Vit Nam

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 2

ng dng mt s h thng h tr ra quyt nh nu trn. Tuy nhin, cc ng dng mi ch dng li mc cng c tr gip qun l mt kha cnh no trong khai thc v s dng m cha c h thng no cp n vn qun l tng hp v pht trin bn vng ti nguyn nc. Nc ta ang trong giai on pht trin nhanh, nhu cu khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc rt ln vi nhiu mc ch, i khi i lp nhau. V vy, nghin cu ng dng v pht trin phng php lun v cng c cho qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc p ng pht trin bn vng c ngha rt quan trng.

Quy hoch pht trin thy in bc thang cho cc con sng trong lu vc Vu Gia-Thu Bn (c B Cng Thng ph duyt ti Quyt nh s 875/Q-KHT ngy 02/5/2003) trc ht nhm pht trin thy in ti tt c on sng c th pht in. Tuy nhin nghin cu quy hoch phn nhiu cn hn ch, dn n mt s d n trin khai khng hiu qu, lm nh hng nng n n i sng, sn xut ca ngi dn. Nghin cu ny trnh by vic pht trin chng trnh HTRQ v th nghim phn tch bi ton qun l xy dng p akmi 4, mt trong 8 d n thu in ln trn sng Vu Gia-Thu Bn [2].

2. i tng v phng php nghin cu

2.1. H thng h tr ra quyt nh qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc

H thng HTRQ l mt h tch hp, tng tc vi my tnh gm cc cng c phn tch c kh nng qun l thng tin, c thit k h tr ngi ra quyt nh trong vic gii quyt cc vn lin quan n qun l ngun nc mang tnh tng hp. Phng php lun xy dng chng trnh HTRQ c pht trin bi hip hi 9 c quan nghin cu v qun l

nc ti Chu u, ng u l Qu nghin cu pht trin bn vng v qun l ton cu (FEEM), trong n lc tm kim cch tip cn la chn gii php v ra quyt nh qun l ti nguyn nc mt cch tng hp, theo khun kh hip nh khung v nc (WFD), c s tham gia ca cng ng [7]. Cc bc phn tch h tr ra quyt nh qun l ti nguyn nc trnh by trong hnh 1.

2.1.1. Tm hiu bi ton Qu trnh h tr ra quyt nh bt u vi

vic tm hiu bi ton, mc ch l xc nh cc vn cn gii quyt, cc thng tin cn c thu thp, cc gii php c th v cc tiu ch nh gi gii php. Cng c thc hin l m hnh nhn thc vn DPSIR (ng lc-p lc-Hin trng-Tc ng-p ng) (hnh 2). S dng m hnh ny cho php kt hp gia mong mun qun l, kt qu tham vn cc bn lin quan, kin chuyn gia cng nh cng ng. Kt thc qu trnh tm hiu bi ton s xc nh c cc gii php v cc tiu ch nh gi gii php phc v cho phn tch h tr ra quyt nh qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc. Vic phn tch, la chn gii php ti u s c thc hin bc sau s dng cng c phn tch a tiu ch (Multy Criteria Analysis - MCA).

2.1.2. Phn tch thit k Bc tip theo ca Tm hiu bi ton l

Phn tch thit k, sn phm ca bc ny lm c s cho vic ra quyt nh qun l. Cng c s dng trong Phn tch thit k l Phn tch a tiu ch (MCA), bao gm mt b cc phng php nh gi trong c vic xc nh mc u tin thng qua cc trng s. Cc bc c bn trong phn tch a tiu ch gm:

a) Xc nh ma trn phn tch v ma trn nh gi

Ma trn phn tch (Analysis Matrix) - Xmn l ma trn gm n ct tng ng vi n gii php v m

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 3

hng tng ng vi m tiu ch. Cc gi tr ca ma trn phn tch chnh l kt qu nh gi cc gii php da vo cc tiu ch chn. Ma trn phn tch cha cc kt qu nh gi trong cc hng vi nhng n v v khong gi tr khng ng nht. Cc gi tr ca ma trn phn tch c a v cng mt thang gi tr trong khong chun [0,1] thng qua cc hm gi tr (Value Function), kt qu thu c ma trn nh gi - Umn.

b) Trng s u tin ca cc tiu ch Tu vo mong mun ca cc bn lin quan,

chnh sch u tin trong pht trin cng nh vai tr ca cc tiu ch nh gi m cc tiu ch c mc quan trng khc nhau v c th hin bng cc trng s. Cc phng php xc nh trng s c th s dng gm: 1) Phng php xp hng v 2) Phng php so snh tng cp.

g

Hnh 1. Cc bc phn tch h tr ra quyt nh qun l ti nguyn nc.

Hnh 2. M hnh nhn thc cho phn tch h tr ra quyt nh QLTHTN nc.

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 4

Phng php xp hng s dng th bc theo tiu chun quan tm [4]. Khi th hng m t s quan trng ca tiu chun, thng tin m t chng (th hng ri) c s dng tnh cc trng s.

+

+=

=

n

k

pk

pi

irn

rnw

1)1(

)1( (1)

Trong : - n l s tiu ch nh gi phng n; - ri l th hng ca tiu ch; - p l h s m t s phn b cc trng s, c

th c c lng bi ngi ra quyt nh. Cho p = 0 tng ng vi cc trng s cn bng. Khi p tng, s phn b trng s tr nn dc hn.

Phng php so snh tng cp cn gi l quy trnh phn tch th bc, dng xy dng ma trn t l [10]. T ma trn t l, vect ring ng vi gi tr ring ln nht l vect trng s. Cc bc tnh ton m t nh sau:

- Xy dng ma trn vung A l bng gi tr so snh mc quan trng ca tng cp tiu ch.

- Xc nh gi tr ring cc i max ca ma trn so snh theo phng trnh:

0)det( = IA (2) - Xc nh vc t trng s bng gii h

phng trnh:

0~0~)(

=

w

wIA (3)

- Chun ha vect trng s w~ theo cng thc:

=

=

n

ii

jj

w

ww

1

~

~

(4)

2.1.3. La chn phng n, ra quyt nh Thng qua ma trn nh gi xc nh

cc bc trc, im s nh gi phng n qua cc tiu ch ring l c quy thnh mt

im s tng th, cc phng n c xp hng theo im s tng th ny. Phng php tnh im s c th da trn mt s quy tc gm: 1) Tng theo trng s n gin (Simple Additive Weighting - SAW); 2) Trung bnh theo trng s (Order Weighting Average - OWA); 3) Phng php im l tng (TOPSIS); v 4) Phng php tuyn chn theo cp (ELECTRE) [6]. Cc quy tc ny ph mt khong rng cc tnh hung ra quyt nh v c th c chn bi ngi ra quyt nh theo cc c trng ca bi ton ra quyt nh.

2.2. Pht trin chng trnh phn tch HTRQ

Trn c s cc phng php trnh by, mt chng trnh phn tch h tr ra quyt nh bc u c xy dng, s dng cng c lp trnh C++. Chng trnh tch hp c 2 phng php xc nh trng s u tin v 4 phng php tnh im s nu trn. Ngi s dng chng trnh c th la chn phng php tnh ty theo bi ton c th. Chng trnh c ng gi di dng phn mm my tnh v c ng k bn quyn (tn gi: VNDSS).

Trong phin bn ny cu trc v giao din v c bn ging nh chng trnh mDSS pht trin ca FEEM dng cho cc d n Chu u. Cc pht trin nng cao s c tip tc cc phin bn tip theo. Trn hnh 3 l cc mn hnh lm vic chnh ca chng trnh. Trong mn hnh 3a l m hnh DPSIR xc nh cc phng n v tiu ch nh gi. Vic xy dng hm gi tr v xc nh gi tr cho ma trn nh gi th hin trong mn hnh 3b. Kt qu phn tch s dng phng php SAW th hin trn mn hnh 3c. Hnh 3d l biu bn vng ca cc phng n.

3. Kt qu v bn lun

3.1. Vn qun l p thu in akmi 4

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 5

Quy hoch pht trin thy in bc thang cho h thng sng Vu Gia - Thu Bn xc nh 8 d n thy in ln (trn 30 MW). Tng cng sut lp t ca 8 d n vo khong 1.100MW. Vi cch tip cn theo bc thang, cc d n c mi quan h ph thuc ln nhau, cc d n thng ngun s iu tit nc cho cc d n h lu. Ngoi cc d n ln, trong lu vc cn c trn 36 d n va (10-30 MW) v nh (di 10 MW) v vi tng cng sut 346 MW [2].

Cc tc ng ca h thng p thu in thng ngun sng Vu Gia ln cc tnh cht ca ti nguyn nc v ngun nc cho TP. Nng l khng trnh khi. D n thy in akmi 4 xy dng trn thng ngun sng Vu Gia, thuc x Phc Xun, huyn Phc Sn, tnh Qung Nam. Cng trnh c cng sut lp my 190MW, l mt trong nhng n trong Quy hoch bc thang thy in trn h thng sng Vu Gia - Thu Bn. Tuy nhin, ch c d n thy in akmi 4 c thit k theo phng n khng tr nc v dng c m c s khai thc chuyn nc t sng Ci (cn gi l sng akmi - nhnh ca sng Vu Gia) sang sng Ngn Thu Bn-sng Thu Bn [2].

Vic nn dng chy cho akmi 4 sang sng Thu Bn c th s gy ra mt s vn cho h lu sng Vu Gia (hnh 4). Trong ma kh, dng chy gim trn sng Vu Gia s lm cho dng chy trn sng i Ngha v sng Yn cng gim theo phn h lu, nh hng n kh nng ly nc ca thnh ph Nng. Vi din tch 1.125 km2 ca akmi 4 s b tch khi lu vc sng Vu Gia, d kin lu lng dng chy s gim bnh qun t nht l 10m3/s trong thng c lu lng dng chy thp nht trong nm. Lu lng trung bnh ma kh ti i Ngha s gim t khong 45m3/s xung 35m3/s. S suy gim lu lng s lm gia tng xm nhp mn dng sng Yn [2]. Trong nhng

nm hn cc i, tc ng ca xm nhp mn c th s nghim trng hn. Cng vi dng chy thp trong ma kh, cc im ly nc cung cp cho nng nghip v sinh hot dc sng Vu Gia s kh khn hn vi chi ph cao hn.

Mt vn na c th xy ra l lu lng nc ti sng Ngn Thu Bn s ln hn bnh thng. iu ny s gy ra tnh mt n nh dn n xi l b trn mt s on sng Ngn Thu Bn. Ngoi ra cc bi ven sng trc kia l ni canh tc hoc ch ca ngi dn cng s b ngp, mc nc trung bnh hng nm s thay i cao hn so vi trc y lm nh hng nht nh n i sng kinh t x hi ca mt s a phng dc Ngn Thu Bn.

3.2. Xy dng bi ton phn tch h tr ra quyt nh

3.2.1. Xc nh cc la chn ra quyt nh Cc la chn ra quyt nh c xc nh

trn c s tham vn cc chuyn gia, cc bn lin quan, cc nh qun l sau khi c gii thiu vn . T phn tch thc t thit k qun l p akmi 4 trn sng Ci, 4 phng n tnh ton c xc nh nh sau:

1. Xy p akmi 4 vi ca x nc pht in nn hon ton sang Ngn Thu Bn v khng c ca x nc ma kh vo sng Ci.

2. Thit k v x nc ma kh 8m3/s vo sng Ci.

3. Thit k v x nc ma kh 25m3/s vo sng Ci.

4. Thit k v x nc ma kh 36m3/s vo sng Ci.

Cc phng n tnh ton c thc hin vi cc tham s thit k dng chy ma kh vi tn sut 90% (l tn sut tnh ton thit k m bo sn xut nng nghip). Cc c trng ngun

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 6

nc tnh ton khi cha c h thng thy in akmi 4 c s dng nh l cc thng s chun nh gi cc phng n.

3.2.2. Xc nh cc tiu ch nh gi h tr ra quyt nh

Cc tiu ch nh gi cc phng n c xc nh t vic phn tch cc mi quan tm trn c ba lnh vc kinh t, mi trng v x hi trong khu vc [11,12,13]. Qua tham kho cc mi quan tm v ti nguyn nc trong bo co nh gi mi trng chin lc lu vc Vu Gia-Thu Bn cho pht trin h thng thy in v p dng m hnh nhn thc DPSIR, cc tiu ch bc u c xc nh cho th nghim tnh ton gm:

1. Lng in nng khai thc c ca akmi 4.

2. Dng chy trn sng Vu Gia (ly ti trm thy vn Thnh M) m bo cp nc nng nghip v sinh thi so vi iu kin bnh thng.

3. Dng chy trn sng Hn m bo cung cp nc nng nghip, sinh hot v cng nghip cho Thnh ph Nng.

4. Mc xm nhp mn trn sng Hn.

3.3. Tnh ton cc phng n h tr ra quyt nh

M hnh dng chy s dng trong tnh ton cc phng n qun l p akmi 4 l m hnh MIKE 11. Cc thng s v s mng sng, cc tham s u vo v s liu ma thit k (tn sut 90%, m bo sn xut nng nghip) thu thp t thc t. Cc kt qu m phng c s dng xy dng cc gi tr cho cc tiu ch trong ma trn phn tch (bng 1).

a) b)

c) d) Hnh 3. Cc mn hnh chnh ca chng trnh.

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 7

Hnh 4. S khu vc nghin cu.

Cc gi tr trong khong [0,1] c xc nh chun ho ma trn phn tch v ma trn nh gi da trn cc dng hm cho tng tiu ch. C ba dng hm c bn: 1) Dng hm li nhun: gi tr trong ma trn phn tch cng cao, gi tr trong ma trn nh gi cng cao; 2) Dng hm chi ph li ch: gi tr trong ma trn phn tch cng cao, gi tr trong ma trn nh gi cng thp v 3) Dng bng s: khi khng c mi tng quan thun hay nghch nh 2 trng hp trn. Chng trnh s t ng tnh im cng mt thang im [0-1] cho cc tiu ch ng vi mi phng n v a vo ma trn nh gi.

i vi tiu ch sn lng in: ly sn lng in c th khai thc ti akmi 4. Hm li nhun nhn gi tr 1 tng ng vi sn lng in t cng sut thit k (787Gwh) khi khng c nc x t akmi 4 vo sng Vu Gia v nhn gi tr 0 khi sn lng in ch t 200Gwh do nc phi x vo sng Vu Gia m bo dng chy bnh thng ma kh [2].

Tiu ch cp nc cho nng nghip: ly lu lng dng chy ti Thnh M. Hm li nhun t gi tr 1 khi dng chy ma kh m bo bng hoc ln hn khi khng c thy in akmi 4, t gi tr 0 tng ng vi trng hp ton b nc ti akmi 4 b chuyn sang sng Thu Bn.

Tiu ch cp nc cho cng nghip v sinh hot: ly lu lng dng chy ti im ly nc Cu trn sng Hn. Hm li nhun tng t nh chn cho tiu chi nc nng nghip.

Tiu ch mc nhim mn: ly mn nc sng Hn ti Cu . Hm chi ph ly gi tr 1 khi mn p ng nc sinh hot di 0,5 (gii hn mn ca nc ngt: sng, h, h cha), ly gi tr 0 khi mn t 3 (gii hn mn nh my nc Cu - Nng phi ngng hot ng) [15].

Cc trng s c ly ngang nhau (c ngha l mc quan trng ca cc tiu ch l nh nhau). Kt qu phn tch s dng phng php

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 8

trung bnh trng s n gin (SAW) trnh by trn hnh 5. Biu bn vng (hnh 6) th hin bng cc hnh trn, kch thc hnh trn biu th im nh gi ca phng n (v trn th hnh 5). V tr ca hnh trn trong h ta tam gic biu th mc tha mn ca phng n i vi 3 kha cnh: Kinh t, X hi v Mi trng.

Nh vy, kt qu bi ton th nghim xy dng h thng h tr ra quyt nh cho thy in akmi 4 cho thy phng n x nc ma

kh m bo trung bnh 36m3/s c nh gi cao nht, phng n ny i hi c thm mt h cha pha sau p akmi 4. Phng n ny cho php c sn lng in ti a m vn m bo nc cho vng h lu v thnh ph Nng. Hn na, kh nng chng l cng c tng ln. Phng n c im s tip theo l phng n x 8m3/s vo sng Vu Gia trong ma kh. Phng n c im thp nht l khng tr li nc vo sng Vu Gia (bng 1).

Bng 1. Kt qu ma trn phn tch v ma trn nh gi

Cc phng n tr li nc cho sng Vu Gia Tiu ch Ch s n v Khng

tr li Tr li 8m3/s

Tr li 25m3/s

Tr li 36m3/s

Sn xut in nng Sn lng in c th khai thc ca akmi 4 Gwh 787 (1)

738 (0,94)

200 (0)

787 (1)

Nc cho nng nghip Dng chy ti Thnh M m3/s 13 (0,13)

21 (0,27)

38 (0,55)

49 (0,73)

Nc cho cng nghip v Sinh hot

Dng chy ti Cu -sng Hn m

3/s 3 (0,12) 14

(0,56) 19

(0,76) 22

(0,88) Xm nhp mn trn sng Hn

mn ti trm Vu Gia 1

2,3 (0,69)

1,4 (0,95)

0,7 (0,98)

0,5 (0,99)

im s tng th ca phng n 0,47 0,68 0,57 0,90

Ch thch:

787 Gwh: Kt qu ca ma trn phn tch, l kt qu nh gi cc gii php da vo cc tiu ch chn. (1): Kt qu ca ma trn nh gi, l kt qu chun ha trong khong [0,1] cc gi tr trong ma trn phn tch

P NG CHO SAW

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Tr 0m3/s Tr 8m3/s Tr 25m3/s Tr 36m3/s

LA CHN

I

M S

.

Hnh 5. Kt qu phn tch cc phng n.

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 9

Hnh 6. Biu bn vng ca phng n.

4. Kt lun

Trn c s l thuyt phn tch h tr ra quyt nh, mt chng trnh phn tch h tr qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc c xy dng. Chng trnh c chc nng tng t vi chng trnh ang s dng nghin cu, p dng cho cc d n Chu u v trn th gii.

Vi vn thc t trong qun l ti nguyn nc lu vc sng Vu Gia - Thu Bn, bi ton th nghim phn tch qun l xy dng p thu in akmi 4 c thc hin. y c th coi l bi ton mu trong qun l tng hp ti nguyn nc, nhm dung ha li ch gia cc nhu cu s dng ca cc cng trnh thy in khi m akmi 4 l cng trnh duy nht thuc h thng thy in bc thang Vu Gia-Thu Bn c thit k theo phng n khng tr li nc v dng c (sng Vu Gia) m theo phng n chuyn nc (sang sng Thu Bn). Kt qu cho thy phng n tr 36m3/s vo sng Vu Gia trong ma kh c im nh gi cao nht, tip n l phng n tr 8m3/s, phng n tr 25m3/s v cui cng l phng n khng tr nc vo sng Vu Gia. Tuy mi l bi ton mang tnh th nghim ban u vi ch mt s cc tiu ch tiu biu, nhng kt qu tnh ton phn nh c tnh hnh thc t hin

nay khi phng n khng tr nc tr li sng Vu Gia gy nn vn tranh chp nc gia thy in akmi 4 v TP. Nng.

Nh vy, cng c HTRQ ny c th c p dng mt cch kh thi cho vic nh gi cc phng n qun l ti nguyn nc trn c s nh lng r rng, trc quan v khch quan, lm cho vic ra quyt nh c c s khoa hc, chc chn hn. Mt khc phng php lun v m hnh c lp trnh thnh cng c phn mm v vy c th p dng cho nhiu bi ton qun l lu vc cc quy m khc nhau (quy m khng gian v qun l).

Li cm n: Bi bo hon thnh vi s tr gip mt phn kinh ph ca ti c lp cp nh nc Nghin cu xut cc gii php qun l s dng tng hp ti nguyn nc lu vc sng Vu Gia - sng Hn p ng nhu cu pht trin bn vng Thnh ph Nng.

Ti liu tham kho

[1] Belton, D. V. and Theodor J. S, Multiple criteria decision analysis, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002.

[2] B Ti nguyn & Mi trng, B Cng Thng, Tng Cng ty in lc Vit Nam, Ngn hng pht trin Chu , nh gi mi trng chin lc (MC-SEA), Quy hoch Thy in lu vc sng Vu Gia-Thu Bn, tnh Qung Nam, 2008.

.T. Ba, P.T.M. Hnh / Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Cc Khoa hc Tri t v Mi trng, Tp 29, S 2 (2013) 1-10 10

[3] Fedra, K., and Jamieson, D.G., The WaterWare decision-support system for river basin planning: II. Planning Capability, Journal of Hydrology 177 (1996), 177-198.

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Decision-making Support System for Integrated Management of Water Resources: Dakmi 4 Case Study

ng Th Ba1, Phm Th Minh Hnh2 1University of Engineering and Technology - Vietnam National University, Hanoi

2Institute of Mechanics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology

Abstract: Integrated management of water resources in service of sustainable development is a practical demand. It is a complex and multi-disciplinary work which is related to many subjects, so it is necessary to have a support tool. This paper presents in short the way of getting access to the building of program in support of making decision on the basin-scope integrated management of water resources being studied and applied in the world. On that basis, a program in support of making decision on integrated management of water resources has been packaged in the form of the already built computer software with the Vietnamese language interface. A case study of decision-making support system for Dakmi 4 dam construction and management was carried out. The plans and evaluation criteria were based on the socio-economic development plan of Nng City and the hydroelectric power plan for the Vu Gia-Thu Bn river basin, Qung Nam province. Dakmi 4 is a big hydroelectric power plant in the Vu Gia-Thu Bn river basin, which has a great influence on the local peoples life as well as on environment in the river basin. Therefore, it is necessary to have a more comprehensive study for this hydroelectric power work with a view to serving the integrated management of water resources in the Vu Gia-Thu Bn river basin.

Keywords: Decision-making support, integrated management of water resources, multi-criteria analysis.