125 130 120 P Ago 120 110 Ago e 12 x 7 Th eWCS- I dif wn ... Crude Oil Price and Differential to Brent Near-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 12-Month History Canadian Heavy

December 11, 2017

ARC Energy Charts 1www.arcenergyinstitute.com © 2017 ARC Energy Research Institute. All Rights Reserved.

70

80

90

100

110

120

Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17

ARC Junior E&P Inde x

S&P 500 E&P

S&P/TSX E& P Index

Indexed to 12 Months Ago

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130



Shanghai Composite

S&P/TSX Composite

Dow Jones

60

80

100

120

140

160



Philadelphia Service I ndex

PSAC Cana dian In dex

Spot WTI Crude

$US/B

Edmonton Light

$US/B

Spot Henry Hub

$US/MMBtu

Spot AECO

$Cdn/GJ

Spot AECO Basis

$US/MMBtu

Currency

$US/$Cdn

Please see Advisories and Disclaimers at the end of the publication for important cautionary advisory and disclaimer language

54.04 2.75 1.42 1.58 0.7781

Performance of Oil and Gas Equities Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History

Oil & Gas Service Equities Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History

Broad Equity Markets Year-to-DateDaily Index Values; Rolling 12-Month History

Canadian Currency ExchangeDaily Close Values; Rolling 24-Month History

1 2

3 4

$0.65

$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17

$US/$Cdn

Chart Watch

57.36

Visit www.arcenergyinstitute.com for more

information on this publication and the Institute

ARC Energy Charts

7

17

30

36

43

Broad market indices are one the many vital signs measuring the health of the economy. Energy demand is a function of economic health.

Source: Bloomberg, ARC Financial Corp.

Performance of Canadian and US oil & gas equities are compared against each other.


The performance of Canadian oil and gas service equities are plotted in tandem with the corresponding US index.

Source: Bloomberg, Petroleum Services Association of Canada

Much of Canada’s oil and gas production is sold in US dollars. As such, the exchange rate significantly impacts corporate revenues and profits.

Source: Bloomberg

The WCS-WTI diff widened last week

US Crude inventories drew by 5.6 MMB

US gas storage grew by 2 Bcf last week

WCSB well completions are 92% above last yr

á áá

á

á

á

W. Canadian gas export volumes are strong

The DJIA hit a new record high on Friday.

The index is up by 23% so far this year.

Since the end of August US and Cdn E&Ps have gained 8% and...

...16% respecti-vely. This is less than the 21% gain in WTI.

The US Fed is expected to raise rates at its next meeting.

Although it’s mostly priced in, the raise would put negative...

...pressure onto the Loonie.

Rate hikes are expected to continue through 2018.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MMB/dOffshore Oil Production

Onshore Oil Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


WTI D iff

WTI

WTI ($US/B) WTI Dif f to Brent ($US/B)

WTI Crude Oil Price and Differential to BrentNear-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 12-Month History

Canadian Heavy Oil Price Differential to WTI Western Canadian Select (WCS) Differential; Rolling 12-Month History

6

7 8

9 10

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

10

20

30

40

50


WCS Diff.

WCS

WCS ($US/B) WCS Dif f to WTI ($US/B)

50

52

54

56

58

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

WTI $US/B 2018

2019

US Crude Oil FuturesWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) 2018 to 2019

Canadian Light Crude Oil Price Differential to WTIWTI and Edmonton Light differential; Rolling 12-Month History

0

1

2

3

4

5

20

30

40

50

60

Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17

Edm. Light Diff.

Edmonton L ight

Edm. Light ($US/B) Edm. Light Dif f to WTI ($US/B)

Ratio of Long to Short Contracts - WTIManaged Money - Futures and Options

Total US Oil ProductionMonthly; 2010 to Present

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17

Long:Short

The differential should reflect the transportation cost from Alberta to Cushing. Greater discounts can result from infrastructure or refinery outages.

Source: Bloomberg

North American crude oil prices can sometimes disconnect from global prices depending on regional supply and demand dynamics.

Source: Bloomberg

Forward prices for WTI are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.

Source: Bloomberg

Canadian heavy crude oil differentials are becoming less volatile with growing access to new markets via pipeline and rail.

Source: Bloomberg

This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of oil in the United States.

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

The advancement of drilling and completion methods boosted US crude oil production, prior to the downturn in prices.

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Crude Oil

CAL 18 futures are trading nearly a dollar below spot.

CAL 19 futures are trading $3.46/B below spot.

EIA data for September showed a month over month...

Keystone is running at reduced rates, causing a glut...

...of crude in W. Canada, and the widest diff since Aug 2014.

At that point WCS was $US 75/B versus $US 37/B now.

...gain of 290 MB/d; the largest since April of 2014.

The ratio of long:short WTI contracts among Managed...

...Money fell modestly following the OPEC meeting.

Light crude prices are being affected by the crude glut.

The group is still relatively bullish compared to most of the yr.

The gain was limited to onshore, with offshore...

...production falling by 16 MB/d.

Edm. Light is trading at its widest diff to WTI since Dec...

... 2016, and more than double last week’s level.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Feb-17 Sep-17

MMB/d Crude Oil

Refined Products

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MMB/d

Global Oil Supply-Demand Balance Quarterly; 2010 to Present

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17

MMB/d

OPEC Oil Production Monthly; Rolling 60-Month History

Alberta Oil Production

Monthly; Conventional and Oil Sands

16

11 12

13 14

15 US Weekly Crude Oil Imports from CanadaPipeline, Tanker and Barge Crude Imports; Rolling 24-Month History

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8


MMB/d

6

7

8

9

10


MMB/d

US Crude Oil ImportsHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

2017

US Exports of Crude Oil and Refined ProductsWeekly Data; 2013 to Present

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17

MMB/d

Mil

lio

ns

Upgraded Oil Sands

Non-Upgraded Oil Sands

Conventional

Oversupply

Shortfall

Most of Canada’s oil production comes from Alberta; split between oil sands and conventional production.

Source: Alberta Energy Regulator

OPEC’s production levels relative to its sustainable and spare capacity influences global crude prices.

Source: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly

Negative numbers indicate a global crude shortfall, while positive numbers indicate an oversupply.

Source: International Energy Agency

Prior to the downturn, growing domestic supply was displacing crude oil imports. Crude oil imports for the current year are in blue.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Crude oil imports from Canada are taking market share from overseas imports.


The US exports more refined products than crude oil. If/when tight oil growth resumes, most export growth should come from crude oil exports.


Crude Oil

A measure was introduced to the U.S. Senate tax bill which...

...would allow for drilling in a portion of the Arctic...

OPEC and its non-OPEC allies agreed to extend... ...production

cuts for the rest of 2018.

The extension was already built into prices so the impact...

… has been relatively modest.

Canadian crude oil exports by rail volumes climbed to...

...134 MB/d, up from 120 MB/d in August and 69 MB/d in...

...September of 2016.

With recent pipeline outages this is likely to increase.

...National Wildlife refuge in Alaska.

It’s not clear how much prod-uction could be added over time.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


Eagle Ford

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

# of Oil Rigs - Total# of Oil Rigs - Play Lev el

300

350

400

450

500

550


MMB

US Crude Oil Stocks Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

17 18

19 20

21 22

2016

2017

75

80

85

90

95

100


%

OECD Total Industry Oil StocksAmericas and Rest of OECD; 2012 to Present

2016

2017

US Motor Gasoline ConsumptionHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0


MMB/d

20172016

Daily NGL Prices as a % of Edmonton Light Propane & Butane Spot Prices at Edmonton, AB

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17

% of Edm. Light

Cond ensate

Butane (Spot)

Propa ne (Spot)

US Oil Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Horizontal Oil Rig Counts; 2014 to Present

Bakken

Total US (Right-Axis)

Permian

US Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (%)Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

US crude oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices. Stock levels for the current year are represented by the blue line.


Global oil stock levels can affect crude oil prices*Includes U.S. (~90%), Canada, Mexico and Chile.

Source: International Energy Agency

Refinery utilization rates change the supply of refined products, impacting price. Utilization for the current year is blue.


Gasoline consumption accounts for almost half of all oil use in the US. Gasoline consumption for the current year is represented by the blue line.


Tracking US oil drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US oil supply and growth trends.

Source: Baker Hughes

Natural gas liquids have become critical contributors to producer’s cash flow. Prices are influenced by the price of oil as well as local supply and demand.


Crude Oil

The US rig count rose by 2 last week, up to 751.

Cana Woodford

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

MMB

OECD Americas*

Other OECD

Crude oil inventories drew by 5.6 MMB last week.

The last IEA Oil Market Report showed an OECD storage surplus...

...to the five year average of 119 MMB, down from more...

Refinery utiliza-tion is higher than normal for this time of yr.

This was a larger draw than expected, however it was...

...than 300 MMB earlier in the year.

Pembina Pipe-lines is seeking approvals for its propane...

...export terminal at Prince Rupert, BC.

...mitigated by a 8.5 MMB gain in gasoline and distillate stocks.

September storage data will be released later this week.

The gain in the Permian was larger at 6 rigs.

AltaGas has already begun construction on a project nearby

The two proje-cts would export 65,000 B/d

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


Differential

$US/MMBtu

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Dec 10 Mar 10 Jun 8 Sep 6 Dec 5

25

27 28

26

2423 Near-Month North American Natural Gas Prices Daily Prices; Rolling 12-Month History

Henry Hub

$US/MMBtu

AECO

$C/GJ

US Natural Gas FuturesNymex (Henry Hub) 2017 to 2019

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50


$US/MMBtu 2018

2019

Canadian Natural Gas FuturesAECO Hub (Bloomberg Estimate) 2017 to 2019

US Coal and Natural Gas Power Generation Cost

Converted to a $/MWh Equivalent

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$US/MWh

Appalachian

Coal

Henry

Hub

Global Natural Gas Prices

Japanese LNG, UK NBP, Henry Hub; Average Monthly Prices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16

$US/MMBtu

Japanese

LNG

Henry

Hub

UK NBP

Ratio of Long to Short Contracts – Henry HubManaged Money – Futures and Options

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75


$C/GJ 2017

2018

2019

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Long:Short

Near-month prices at AECO track Henry Hub prices, the exchange rate and the cost of transportation. Local factors can also affect price.

Source: Bloomberg

Forward contract prices are plotted against months in the calendar year. Years are distinguished by color and symbol coding.

Source: Bloomberg

This represents the relative bullishness of money managers on the price of natural gas in the United States.

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

AECO forward prices mimic Henry Hub futures plus a differential

Source: Bloomberg

International natural gas prices strongly impact the economics of proposed LNG projects.

Source: Bloomberg, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

This graph illustrates when it may be economic to begin coal-gas switching in power generation. Average power plant efficiencies are assumed.

Source: Bloomberg

Natural Gas

AECO-HH basis widened to $US 1.58/MMBtu last week for CAL18. This differential

is well above historical norms as export...

Strong LNG demand from China is driving up spot prices.

...concerns remain.

Spot AECO averaged $C 2.14/GJ in November.

This was the strongest since June helped by: higher...

...exports, strong weather related demand, and reduced...

...pipeline outages.

This is improving the outlook for the utilization of US LNG plants.

CAL18 Henry Hub dropped by $0.18/MMBtu last week as... ...warmer

weather has led to concerns about demand.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0


Bcf /d

6

7

8

9

10

11

12


Bcf /d

Closing Spot Prices at North American Natural Gas HubsSuperimposed on Relative Pipeline Flows

\

30 31

All prices in $US/MMBtu

Closing Spot Prices at North American Natural Gas HubsSuperimposed on Relative Physical Volumes Traded

AECO

Henry Hub

Kingsgate

Stanfield

Malin Opal

Socal

San Juan

Permian

Ventura ChicagoBoston

29

Dawn

Waddington

TGP Zone 4 -

Marcellus

US Natural Gas Exports – Excluding CanadaDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

20172016

Pipeline Flows Out of Western CanadaDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

2017

The ability of gas producers to move gas out of the WCSB to eastern markets and the US is a major factor in local natural gas prices.

Source: Various Pipeline Companies

Between exports to Mexico and LNG shipments, the US is growing as a natural gas exporter. Robust US supply growth has driven this trend.

Source: Bentek

North America has an integrated natural gas market. Prices are determined by regional supply and demand, and pipeline flows.

Source: Bloomberg

Natural Gas

US$2.75

US$1.17

US$2.46

US$2.41

US$2.59

US$2.64

US$2.31

US$2.35

US$2.60

US$2.87

US$2.58

US$4.45

US$2.78

US$3.56

US$2.07

Export volumes have been strong since the start of LTFP...

...flows to Dawn on November 1st. Production since Nov 1 has...

...averaged 0.9 Bcf/d over the two months prior.

Strong US gas exports are helping to absorb some…

...of the production growth.

High field receipts and low weather related demand have...

...weakened AECO pricing. Last weekend there was an...

...injection into storage, which is unusual for December.

YTD exports are up by 1.9 Bcf/d over last year.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


2017

2017

2017

2016

32 33

34 35

36 37

Total US Dry Natural Gas ProductionHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

50

54

58

62

66

70

74

78


Bcf /d

2013

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Bcf /d

US Total Natural Gas DemandDaily; Historical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2017

US Weekly Heating Degree DaysSource: NOAA

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


Tcf

Total Working Natural Gas in US StorageHistorical Tracks and Current Year Levels

2016

2017

(350)

(300)

(250)

(200)

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150


Bcf

Weekly US Natural Gas Storage Net ChangeWeekly Injection or (Withdrawals); 2009 to Current

2016

12

13

14

15

16

17


Bcf /d

Daily Western Canadian ProductionEstimated Using Major Pipeline Receipts

2016

Weekly natural gas demand is directly tied to the weather. The current year is in dark blue.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Total US demand fluctuates between 60 Bcf/d in the summer and over 100 Bcf/d in the winter. Weather is the most important driver of consumption.

Source: Bentek

US production started ramping up in late 2007 and continues to grow year over year.

Source: Bentek

This includes receipts on the TCPL, Alliance, WestCoast and TransGas pipelines.

Source: Various Pipeline Companies

Weekly gas storage reports provide a snapshot of supply and demand. Current year changes are represented by the blue line.


The EIA reports changes in US natural gas inventories held in underground storage facilities on a weekly basis.


Natural Gas

Warm weather and high production led to an injection...

20162017

Storage is now at a deficit of 36 Bcf to the 5-year average.

Major pipeline projects are expected to allow growth...

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

HDDs

Week

...last week. This is very late in the season for an injection.

This deficit shrunk by 71 Bcf due to the surp-rise injection.

The NOAA’s 8 to 14 day weather outlook is for warmer...

...weather in much of the US, but colder weather in the...

...in the rest of 2017 and into 2018.

...high demand Northeast region.

US gas production has been strong recently.

Higher export flows on the TCPL Mainline are supporting...

Production since Nov 1 avg’d 4.73 Bcf/d over that time last year.

...higher production in the WCSB. Production since

Nov 1 avg’d 1.25 Bcf/d over that time last year.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


2013

2016

2010

2011

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

Week

Well Completions (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

# of Gas Rigs - Total# of Gas Rigs - Play Lev el

38 39

40 41

42 43

Weekly Canadian Oil and Gas Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Average Rig Counts; Rolling 24-Month History

0

50

100

150

200

250


# of Rigs

Gas

Rigs

Oil

Rigs

US Gas Drilling ActivityBaker Hughes Horizontal Gas Rig Counts; 2014 to Present

Marcellus

Total US (Right Axis)

Western Canadian Natural Gas Storage LevelsWeekly; Current Year and Historic Tracks

2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Bcf

2017

Alberta Natural Gas DemandTransCanada Intra-AB Deliveries; Current Year and Historical Tracks

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0


Bcf /d

2017 2016

2012

Canadian Cumulative Well CompletionsCurrent Year vs Years Prior

2016

2014

Alberta Crown Land Sales – Excluding Oil SandsYear-over-Year; Cumulative

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


$ Billions

2017

2012

2010

2011

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Alberta natural gas demand has grown steadily in recent years, largely driven by new oil sands projects coming on line.

Source: TransCanada Pipelines

Canada’s natural gas storage level provides a good metric if the country is well stocked. Abnormally high or low storage can affect the basis.

Source: Bloomberg

Unlike US drilling activity, Canadian rigs are dispatched seasonally. Capital allocation by operators is driven by views of future oil and gas prices.


Tracking US gas drilling by major play provides insight into the composition of US gas supply and growth trends.


Land prices are an important component of F&D costs. In Alberta, sales of petroleum and natural gas rights are held every two weeks.

Source: Alberta Department of Energy

Relative year-over-year drilling activity is highlighted in this chart. Cumulative well completions for the current year are shown in blue.

Source: Daily Oil Bulletin/JWN

Natural Gas and Other Indicators

2015

2017

There are now 219 rigs drilling in the WCSB, with a similar...

Well completions so far this year have been tracking...

...92% above last year; an increase of 2,854 wells.

Producers paid $44.62 MM in bonus payments at AB’s land sale.

...amount targeting oil and gas.

WCSB storage dropped by 0.8% last week to 91.9% full.

Storage at this time last year was higher at 95.2% full.

After a cold start to Nov, abnormally warm December ...

...weather has softened Alberta gas demand.

The US gas rig count rose by 4 rigs to 180 total.

At this time last year there were only 119 rigs drilling for gas.

Producers paid $44.62 MM in bonus payments at AB’s land sale.

There is one more land sale for the year, on December 20th.

...amount targeting oil and gas.

There are fewer rigs drilling than this time last year.

July 3, 2006

ARC Energy Charts

December 11, 2017


Estimated Capital Flow in the Canadian Oil and Gas Economy for 2017Industry Revenue, Cash Flow, Reinvestment, Drilling Activity and Production

Oil & Gas

Prices

Production

Volume

Debt,

Equity

E&P

Revenue

Service Sector

Revenue

Land,

Acquisitions

Operating

Expenditures

Reserve

Additions

Capital Flow

in the

Canadian

Oil and Gas

Economy

Royalties

& Taxes

G&A

Exploration &

Development

Cash

Flow

CAPEX

Dividends and

Distributions

Foreign Investment

and Capital Outflow

Drilling

Activity

$C 37.19 per BOE

7.2 Million

BOE/day

$C 40.5

Billion

$C 97.3

Billion

$C 45.7

Billion

7,172

Wells

Canadian Industry Statistics: Historical Data and Forecast44

Canadian Industry Metrics

Advisories and Disclaimers: This document is provided for informational purposes only and none of the information contained herein is intended to provide, nor should be

construed as, investment, financial, legal or other advice and should not be relied upon as such. Certain of the information and data contained herein has been obtained or

prepared from publicly available documents and other sources prepared by third parties, and ARC has relied upon such information and data. ARC does not audit or

independently verify such information and data and ARC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information and data nor the

conclusions derived therefrom. This document has been published on the basis that ARC shall not be responsible for, and ARC hereby expressly disclaims any responsibility

or liability for, any financial or other losses or damages of any nature whatsoever arising from or otherwise relating to any use of this document.

Certain information contained herein may constitute forward-looking information and forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under the

meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements include estimates, plans, expectations, intentions, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or

other statements that are not statements of fact, including but not limited to global and industry economic conditions and policies, production, demand and commodity prices.

Although ARC believes that the assumptions underlying and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no (and does not give any)

assurance that such assumptions and expectations will prove to have been correct. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and

other factors outside of ARC's control that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein. Neither ARC nor any of its affiliates undertakes any

obligation to publicly revise such forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law.

Average

Price

Edmonton

Par AECO

Conv.

Liquids

Bitumen +

Synthet ic

Natural

Gas

Total

Volume

Total

Revenue

After-tax

Cash Flow

Conv. Oil

and Gas Oilsands

Reinvest

Ratio

Wells

Compl.

Avg Rig

Utiliz.

Oil

Wells

Gas

Wells

$/BOE $C/B $C/GJ

Average

M BOE/d

Average

M BOE/d

M BOE/d

(@ 6:1)

M BOE/d

(@ 6:1)

$C

millions

$C

millions

$C

millions

$C

millions x:1

# /

Year % % %

2008 68.22 102.66 7.75 1,994 1,207 2,700 5,864 145,425 83,255 36,293 18,113 0.65 16,877 41% 36% 56%

2009 42.26 66.42 3.79 1,840 1,331 2,514 5,683 89,057 36,680 22,335 11,227 0.91 8,368 25% 41% 51%

2010 48.41 77.55 3.79 1,830 1,403 2,434 5,668 101,056 43,569 35,666 17,195 1.16 12,119 40% 56% 40%

2011 55.32 95.24 3.44 1,873 1,482 2,386 5,740 115,890 53,448 40,139 22,491 1.10 12,827 52% 69% 31%

2012 50.60 86.38 2.27 1,905 1,743 2,327 5,975 111,389 48,908 39,733 27,199 1.37 11,067 44% 83% 17%

2013 55.95 93.47 3.02 2,023 1,940 2,343 6,306 128,787 54,711 43,165 30,809 1.35 11,071 42% 84% 16%

2014 61.30 95.07 4.23 2,086 2,160 2,452 6,699 149,871 72,188 46,872 33,868 1.12 11,222 45% 78% 22%

2015 37.21 57.63 2.56 1,983 2,368 2,500 6,852 93,051 28,909 31,609 22,929 1.89 5,382 24% 69% 31%

2016e 32.53 53.09 2.06 1,964 2,418 2,547 6,930 82,266 26,575 22,264 15,426 1.42 4,060 17% 70% 30%

2017e 37.19 62.82 2.14 1,905 2,690 2,574 7,170 97,324 40,507 32,500 13,242 1.13 7,172 24% 70% 30%

R einvestment D rilling Well Split

Canadian Industry Metrics

P rice P ro duct io n Vo lume C apital Inf lo w

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125 130 120 P Ago 120 110 Ago e 12 x 7 Th eWCS- I dif wn ... Crude Oil Price and Differential to Brent Near-Month WTI and Brent Differential; Rolling 12-Month History Canadian Heavy