12. July 2011

RETRANS2 – Final Report

Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Armin Schnettler, Thomas DederichsAnn-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz

RWTH Aachen University, Germany

12. July 2011

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Background of the project

The transport sector is globally growing and has the strongest reliance on fossil fuels from all economic sectors

GHG emissions from transport increased by 26% from 1990-2006 (in Europe) Worldwide transport is responsible for 25% of energy-related CO2-Emissions European Target – 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 compared to 1990

thus oil consumption in the transport sector must drop by around 70% from today

Expected development (globally) 2009: 6,8 billion people, 700 million passenger vehicles

2050: 9 billion people, 3 billion passenger vehicles

Mitigation of fuel-dependency and CO2-Emissions possible with Electric Vehicles?

Co-Evolution of transport sector and energy sector provides opportunities for developing Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources and Electric Vehicles

Energy systems and transport characteristics differ around the world→ need for regional perspectives

2

Introduction

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Comparison of three world regions

Identify challenges and opportunities for the Co-Evolution of Electric Vehicles and Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in three world regions (North America, Europe, China)

Similarities and differences in personal mobility Infrastructure requirements for the integration of Electric Vehicles

and Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources Existing policy framework Economical influences on the evolution of Electric Vehicles and Renewable Energy

Assist stakeholders of this Co-Evolution in better understanding the characteristics of each region

Examine whether the policy recommendations from the RETRANS project can be applied

Identification of those policy options that have to be adjusted to better fit the situation in one region

3

Scope of RETRANS2 Regions

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Stakeholders for Co-Evolution Policies

OEMs EVs can be counted as ZEVs if contribution to energy fund for new RES-E is paid Lower overall fleet emissions

Utilities Systems stabilizing bonus for connected EVs

DSOs Smart metering required

Government Hard coupling: increase RES-E portfolio share with growing EV market penetration Tax exemption on RES-E traction current

Aggregator Actor that bundles EVs in a certain region for offering their common capacity for

ancillary services System stabilizing bonus might offer additional potential for revenue

4

Background information from RETRANS

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Consistent long term policy for Co-Evolution needed that involves a variety of actors Preparation for EVs

Infrastructure and standardization (plugs, charging levels, smart grids) Pilot fleets in niche markets

Learning effects for cost reductions

Long term perspective for Industry, security of investment

Increase RES-E production Feed-in tariffs or premiums Renewable portfolio shares or obligations Cap and trade

Balanced grid development Priority access for renewables (no coal based charging) Coordinated technical and institutional efforts Smart grids and active load management

Phase 2: Increase EV deployment for mass markets, increase system integration (V2G)

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RETRANS Policy Recommendations

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Methodology & approach

Literature survey and analysis of relevant studies and policy papers Assessment of pilot projects (In-House) Expert interviews on characteristics of regional electricity sector

development Analysis of statistical data Analysis of regional policies until today and their continuation

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Chapters

Context Regional Economic and Transport-related Background Electric Vehicles RES-E and Grid

Opportunities & Challenges for Co-Evolution Conclusions

Table of Contents

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The Chinese transport sector adapts slowly to Europe and North America

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Transport sector has fastest growing energy use and strongest reliance on fossil fuels of all economic sectors worldwide.

Context – Transport Sector Overview

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Diverse Economic and Population Background - North America and Europe are comparable GDP per capita (PPP)

North America and Europe have a GDP of 4 and 3 times the world average, respectively

China has a much lower GDP per capita(0,7 times the world average)

Population 342 million – North America 500 million – Europe (EU27)

Low population density in Nordic Countries

1.3 billion – China High density only in southern and eastern China

Urbanization High rates in North America (80%)

and Europe (72%) & Northern Europe (79%) Much lower urbanization (47%) in China

Urban Chinese population surpasses both North America’s and Europe’s total

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World Average

Source: IfHT, values from World Monetary Fund

Source: IfHT, values from CIA & Eurostat

Source: IfHT, values from UN

Context –Economic Situation

100%

1 billion

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Differences in Vehicle ownership and Market development

North America Europe China

Vehicles on Road 277 million 210 million ~55 million

Passenger Vehicle Sales

12 million (2009) 16 million (2009) 10,3 million (2009)13,7 million (2010)

Vehicles per 1000 people

830 473Nordic: 500

Eastern: 380

54Beijing: 228

Overall Market situation today

Stagnating, expected to increase as of 2012

Stagnating Strongly growing (doubling of sales within 3 years)

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Context – Vehicles Market

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Chinese market will be catching up on Western levels – further extreme growth expected Highest global sales of passenger vehicles as of 2009

Sales more than doubled within 3 years

~ 13.7 million new passenger vehicles in 2010 Further growth expected,

especially for lower-margin subcompact and compact cars

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Context – Chinese Vehicles Market

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mill

ion

Total vehicle sales

Commercial vehicle

Passenger vehicle

Vehicle Sales (Total/ Passenger Vehicles

Commercial Vehicles)

20

10

0

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Cars are most important for passenger traffic and will most likely stay so Europe and North America rely mainly on private cars

for passenger transport

Importance of vehicles is mirrored in available infrastructure (Annex A13) Further increase in traffic expected for the European Union

Passenger traffic activity + 51%, 2005 – 2050 Reasons:

Immigration Expansion of the Union (increase in labor mobility) Economic growth Increase in labor mobility

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Context – Passenger traffic

North America Europe

Share of passenger-km in private cars

93% 83%

Travelled km per person and year

15,000 – 20,000 ca. 10,000Nordic: 14,000 – 20,000

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Chapters



Table of Contents

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Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses

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Context – Electric Vehicles

StrengthsEconomical driving

Electric grid provides basic infrastructure

OpportunitiesIntegrating RES in transport

sectorReducing local emissions (not only gaseous but also dust and

noise)

ThreatsCosts for infrastructure

Battery lifetime Safety

Advances in efficiency of conventional vehicles

WeaknessesBattery limits

Lack of StandardizationFew models availableScarce infrastructure

High investment costs

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EVs are a niche market

EVs are close to the market This will change with increased adoption and information to the general public.

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Context – Transport Sector – Electric Vehicles

North America Europe China

EV sales (2009)

1.1% of passenger vehicles

JDPower: 2,8% sales

1% of passenger vehicles

0,4% of vehicles

(distribution below)

Only HEVs,BEVs sales negligible

E-Bikes and E-Scooters included

Less than 0,01% of vehicles on road are EVs

2020 Outlook

3-10% of passenger vehicles on the road (2020-2025)

5% Target

PHEV bus69%

PHEV car22%

BEV bus4%

BEV taxi5%

BEV car

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Benefits regarding GHG emissions strongly depend on the regional electricity mix EVs considered as low- or no-emission-vehicles

Technically this depends on the electricity mix

EVs powered by coal-fired power plants emit >800gCO2/ km

Nighttime charging can result in both increasing the share of RES-E and in increasing the share of fossil base-load electricity and thus in higher emissions

Emissions of EVs are 50% of ICEVs’ with current European electricity mix

Emissions of EVs are 89-74% of ICEVs’ with current USA electricity mix GHG emissions lower in Canada (2006 data)

because of higher proportion of RES-E (depending on province)

Using RES-E, GHG emissions could be reduced to 75%-38% of ICEVs’ to which the new CAFE standards of 35.5 mpg by 2016 apply.

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Context –Electric Vehicles & GHG Mitigation

ICE BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PEI NL

200

0

100

GHG = Greenhouse gas – EV = Electric vehicleICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicleRES-E = Electricity from Renewable SourcesCAFE standards = US fuel efficiency standards

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In China the high share of coal-based electricity in the grid increases EVs’ emissions above those from conventional ICEVs (2010 data)

The electricity mix in the more densely populated southern and eastern China decreases EVs’ emissions below conventional values

The northern regions that today have the highest emission values have large unconnected wind resources

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GHG emissions from electric vehicles are beneficial only in some Chinese regions

Context – Transport Sector – Emissions of EVs

GHG = Greenhouse gas – EV = Electric vehicleICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicleRES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources

N NE E C NW S Hai Av. ICE

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Low gas prices in North America and China reduce interest in EV’s cost-benefits Gas prices and gas tax are low in China, Canada and the USA

relative to Europe

Context – Electric Vehicles – Economic Influence

Gas prices around the world (US $ per gallon, 2011)

Source: www.dailyfinance.com

9,278,42 8,01

5,60 4,96 3,82

0

5

10

Norway Denmark The Netherlands

China Canada USA

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General transport sector emissions policies influence also the deployment of electric vehicles GHG emissions are taken into account through

taxation in many European countries (map)(Dark Blue: more than one taxation scheme, Light Blue: one kind of CO2-tax)

and in China Tax benefits from this taxation reduce impact of

cost-difference compared with conventional cars

No taxation of GHG emissions of passenger vehicles in North America

Elevated electricity costs in Nordic countries Influence the economical viability of EVs

Variety of policies regarding future of transport Shift of commodities to rail and inland navigation

Increase of public transport

Holistic approach provides less secure framework for investments

Context – Electric Vehicles – Economic Influence

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Societal change drives the deployment of electric vehicles Urbanization

Urban areas experience most traffic problems

High population density in urban areas warrants investments in infrastructure

Urban population tends to early adoption of new technologies So far the number of EVs (per head) is biggest in cities

But:

Charging infrastructure faces competition for space

Immigration and labor mobility Increase mobility needs

Customer acceptance of new mobility patterns,of the look, space and performance of EVs

Context – Electric Vehicles - Drivers

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Technical and political development will have strongest influence on EV deployment Political and regulatory support

Subsidies

Infrastructure development

Pilot projects

Recommendations from funding organizations 207 models recommended for subsidies in China

only these models are eligible

Some European countries publish catalogues of vehicles that are entitled to benefits

Standardization Secure framework for investments from stakeholders

Development of vehicle energy storage systems Longer driving range

Lower battery costs

Context – Electric Vehicles – Drivers

BEVs61%

HEVs35%

FCEVs4%

Buses56%

Cars21%

Others23%

The sustainability of the deployment of electric vehicles has to be taken into account for devising support policies!

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The availability of charging infrastructure is a basic requirement for electric vehicle deployment Security aspect for users

Necessary for widespread EV usage Quick-charging is now being implemented

in the Nordic European countries April 12, 2011 Denmark's first quick charge station

opened (max. 20 minutes for 80 % SOC)

2 stations have been build in the Oslo area in Norway

Battery swapping stations will be built in Denmark(Figure: Projection for 2012)

In China all three charging technologies are/ will be tested

Some pilot cities have already published standards

Slow charging and battery swapping are preferred by grid companies

No governmental preferences yet

Context – Electric Vehicles – Drivers

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Diverse climate conditions All three regions encompass various climate zones with cold winters in the north

and humid and hot summers in the south These climatic differences will lead to different battery lifetime and vehicle availability

Landscape and road conditions vary

Areas with low population density increase infrastructural costs for widespread deployment

Midwestern America, western and northern China, northern Europe For first usage in cities population density is not an issue

Ageing population in North America and Europe Ageing people remain increasingly mobile and thus cause more traffic

An increasing share of governmental funds has to be dedicated to care Funding for new technologies becomes more difficult

Electric vehicles do not meet with favorable conditions everywhere

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Context – Challenges for EVs

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Complementary use rather than replacing conventional vehicles Electric vehicles are typically second cars

Commuting Germany: most commuting distances are 80 km or under

This is absolutely within EVs range

Inner-City-Traffic Reduction of local emissions

Noise

Green House Gases and Particles

Short distances, stop and go

Integration into Car-Sharing programs No individual perception of purchase costs

Public electric vehicles in China Buses & Taxis – uniform fleets allow economies of scale and battery swapping

Sanitation vehicles, postal cars, other public services’ vehicles

Context – Electric Vehicles – Markets

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Usage models have different requirements on EVs and infrastructure Inner-City traffic

Short distances, low requirements for speed

Slow charging, mostly at home

Commuting Medium requirements for distances and speed

Slow charging, at home and at work

Car sharing Short and medium distances, low and medium speed

Slow charging at stations, maybe battery swapping

Inter-City-Traffic Long distances, high requirements for speed

Fast charging and battery swapping on road

Context – Electric Vehicles – Markets

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EVs should be offered in a package including additional transport and other services Public transport ticket(s) Rental car service Combination with car-sharing programs?

Installation of home charging point Access to charging stations/ reserved parking spots

Free charging on public charging stations Flat rate for charging current from RES-E

Pay-per-mile battery leasing offers Maintenance services Guarantee on battery and vehicle parts Insurance

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Context – Electric Vehicles – Business Models

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Pilot Projects are nuclei for EV deployment

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Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot Projects

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European pilot projects surpass North Americans in numbers Projects concentrate on cities or one peculiar region

Small scale co-operation of local authorities, Utilities and OEMs

Focus Experience/ Usage

Private use, Commuting

Car sharing

Public transportation, Postal service

Charging infrastructure

Many big cities have pilot projects Commercial/ public vehicles

Car sharing

Public transportation, Postal service


One project encompasses several states (see Annex A4)


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Chinese “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” Program There are three stages

of 25 pilot cities in the “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” pilot program.

Currently, most EV in these pilot cities are public buses, taxis, official’s cars and services vehicles.

5 cities have subsidies for private EV customers


Details of five representative cities are listed in Annex A4.

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User Behavior

EV users are early adopters or members of public organizations Early adopters are older, educated, interested in technology and enjoy being early

adopters

Willingness to plug-in may depend on business models Interest in earnings through delayed charging vs.

concerns about availability of the EV

V2G services only of interest if a benefit is perceived Preference for home charging

(90% in Northern Europe, 70% in Western Europe)

Consumers value environmental performance, but they value other attributes more.

Context – Electric Vehicles – Users

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User concerns

High initial investment Users today are more willing to take TCO

into account for purchasing decisions

Price EVs cost at least ¥ 20,000 more than ICEVs

of same performance

40% of consumers that avoid purchasing a hybrid do so due to cost. Only 10% of non-hybrid consumers avoid a purchase due to cost.

Nordic countries: Prices on EVs (free from registration charge) coming close to those of conventional cars (including charge).EV family cars start at € 65,000 in Norway

Fuel economy (in $/km)/ Operating costs

Scarce infrastructure

Performance of EVs 14% of consumers that avoid purchasing a

hybrid do so due to performance. Only 5% of non-hybrid consumers avoid a purchase due to performance.

Geographical differences Weather/ climate

In 2010 Danish EVs showed poor performance in cold weather

Landscape/ Roads

Driving range Charge times Battery life(span)

Relatively few models available/ lack of diversity

Dislike of the look/design

Safety

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Context – Electric Vehicles – Users

Global issues Manufacturing issues

TCO = Total Cost of OwnershipICEV = Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle

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Urban and rural backgrounds for EVs differ – also between the regions

80% of North American population, 75% of European population, 46% of Chinese population lives in cities

Traffic load in cities increases Emissions from traffic increase

(gaseous, dust, noise)

Increase of congestion

Commuters have high requirements on vehicle performance and reliability

Cities have highest need for holistic passenger transportation solution

Most deployment of EVs in cities

Spatial planning conflicts for charging infrastructure

Public transportation is not always conveniently available

Need for reliable private transportation solutions

Vehicle ownership rates are higher (Europe & North America)/ lower (China) than in cities

Demand for vehicles in rural and suburban areas increases

Focus: low-speed low-cost vehicles 70 km/h maximum, 40,000 – 50,000 ¥

Challenges: safety, environmental impacts (battery), traffic regulation conflicts

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Context – Electric Vehicles – Urban vs. Rural

Urban Rural

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Standardization of infrastructure and vehicle characteristics is urgently needed Some general vehicle standards for safety specifications, general design specifications

and emission testing also apply to electric vehicles

Standardized Plug needed urgently Wider harmonization needed, parallel systems exist today

Mennekes plug is harmonized between France and Germany

Scame plug is supported by French-Italian alliance

Yazaki is standard plug in the USA

Chinese pilot cities have started issuing their own standards for charging infrastructure

Need for standards on Number of phases for charging (1 or 3)

National and cross-national compatibility

Safety requirements + technical approval body

Data protocols and protection of data

Charging cable reposit

Billing system

Liability

Context – Electric Vehicles – Standardization

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Safety standards are especially important

Differing vehicle standards between the USA and Canada (involving bumpers, seat belts, side door strength, metric indicators, etc.).

To be harmonized by 2012

There is a need for nation-wide harmonized standards for after-market ICE vehicle conversion.

Safety of plugs and the charging process is a concern besides design, number of phases & voltage level for charging

Pure electric vehicles from independent manufacturers may not be as equipped for safety as modern cars are(airbag, anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control etc.)

Context – Electric Vehicles – Standardization

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Targets for Electric Vehicles on the road

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Context – Electric Vehicles – Objectives

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Targets for Reduction of GHG emissions

EU 20-20-20-Targets 20% reduction of GHG emissions (relative to 1990) 20% of energy from renewables

10% share of renewables in transport

20% increase in energy efficiency National targets are even stricter

Sweden & Denmark:100% renewable fuels in transportby 2030

North America Non-binding target of

17% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005)

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Fuel distribution in European road transport 2009

Electricity includes inland waterway and air transport

Source: Eurostat

Context – Electric Vehicles – Objectives

Petroleum products95,33%

Biofuels3,84% Electricity

0,52%

Natural Gas0,30%

Biogas0,01%

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The lack of standards makes long-term planning difficult for vehicle and infrastructure manufacturers No coordinated effort between car-making markets in terms of regulation

(regarding emissions standards which were agreed on in Europe & China or the type of technologies to support) yet.

Makes planning effectively for the long term difficult for auto-makers Can be somewhat mitigated by technology-sharing agreements between

companies Hinders large-scale deployment

(i.e. Chevrolet intends to produce only 10,000 units of the Volt in its first year of production in the United States).

No political will to implement high fuel taxes to stimulate the greatest advances in vehicle efficiency and alternative vehicles

Increasingly strict fuel efficiency standards are a good first step

Context – Electric Vehicles – Regulatory Barriers

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National or regional authorities provide a variety of incentives for Electric Vehicle users Taxation reduction or exemption

Registration fee – One-time-benefit Annual circulation or motor tax – annual benefit

Subsidies At acquisition or later

Traffic privileges Use of bus lanes, free parking Exemption from ferry tolls or road charges Exemption from car license plate lottery and traffic restrictions (Beijing)

Fuel subsidies Reduced insurance rates for pilot fleets

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Context – Electric Vehicles – Benefits & Incentives

Details for Regions in Annex A3

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Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources

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Context – Electricity from Renewable Sources

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1/6th – 1/5th of Electricity is from Renewables

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Context – RES-E – Current status

Coal40,8%

Nuclear19,5%

Gas21,0%

Oil1,1%

Hydro14,2%

Renewable3,4%

Coal25,1%

Nuclear26,8%

Gas23,95%

Oil3,0%

Hydro15,1%

Renewable7,4%

Coal79,1%

Nuclear2,0%

Gas0,9%

Oil0,7%

Hydro16,9%

Renewable0,5%

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2020 RES-E Targets and Scenarios

42

Context – RES-E

Details for North America in Annex

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Production incentives for renewable electricity are most widely in force in Europe

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Context – RES-E – Incentives

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Electricity markets differ – Vertical markets in North America and China

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Context – Electricity Sector – Structure

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Reserve power feed-in from electric vehicles may be an income option for owners

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Context – Reserve market

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Electricity grids are very different in the three regions

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Context – Grids

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„One common“ transmission grid for Europe

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Context – RES-E – Grid organization

European Network of TSOs for ElectricityContinental Europe

Synchronous Area

Nordic Synchronous Area

Baltic Synchronous Area

British Synchronous Area

Irish Synchronous Area

Isolated Systems of Cyprus and Iceland

Harmonization of Grid Codes Common Network planning

Source: IfHT, based on Entso-e Factsheet 2011

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North American grids are separated today

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Interconnected Grids: Western

Interconnection Eastern

Interconnection Texas Alaska/ Hawaii

Links between these regions planned.

Planning in map: Separation of grids will

largely remain

Source: IfHT, (based on) NPR 2009

The separation of the grid continues northwardsinto Canada.

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China’s grid is split in two

Two major grid companies China State Grid (blue)

26 Provinces2274.8 TWh

China Southern Grid (gold)5 Provinces628 TWh

Six major regional grids Center, North/ Northeast

East, Northwest

South

Distributed power production is not encouraged


Source: IfHT, based on Earley et al.

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The densely populated demand centers are far away from renewable resources in China

Energy resources – and power production – are located far from the demand areas.

Wind and other renewable energies could directly charge EVs (or swapped batteries) in both northern China as well as in southwestern China where transport of liquid fuels is inconvenient

Given the low economic development status of these areas, it is likely that low-tech, low-speed, low-cost EVs will be more accepted there.

Low-cost EVs use lead-acid batteries which are increasingly causing pollution problems in rural China.

50Source: IfHT based on "Imbalance of Power Production and Consumption in China” and

Earley et al.

Context – RES-E – Regional Power Characteristics

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ThermalHydroNuclearWind & other

Fossil fuel-based electricity dominates the electricity mix in China Northwest and Southwest China have some wind power installed

South and East China have hydro power available This is used for peak load management

Regulated charging Uses excess RES-E

Increases deployed share of RES-E

Context – RES-E – Regional Power Characteristics

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V2G at the moment not legally possible in any region

The bidirectionality of charging and providing ancillary services makes billing complicated

Two pilot projects that include V2G are underway in the USA (notably in Colorado)

US personal vehicles are used ~1 h/day Expensive ancillary services (from coal or gas) in US Inexpensive ancillary services (from hydro power) in Canada

Regulatory and Usage framework varies heavily in Europe European cars are immobile most of the day (comparably to the US)

Parking situations vary between countries Vehicles are parked on the street overnight in Italy

Availability of possibilities for plugging-in at work is unclear

Important sources for ancillary services are gas and hydro power

Context – V2G

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Ancillary services from electric vehicles

Further development of Communication infrastructure and bidirectional metering for controlled charging and feed-back needed

Participation in reserve markets is currently outlawed Revenue depends on demand and the energy provided Reserve from hydro power (in Canada and Norway) is cheap while natural gas

based reserve power

Hope that EVs can result in less need for new or closing down existing fossil fuel based base load capacity on the long term

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Context – RES-E – Business models

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Revenues from grid-related services:Reserve capacity in the Nordic power market

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Context – RES-E – Ancillary services

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Co-Evolution

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Co-Evolution

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Cooperation between stakeholders needed for Co-Evolution Co-Evolution only possible if both EV deployment and RES-E production are

encouraged RES-E production needs to increase for Co-Evolution Tariffs for charging with RES-E need to be developed

Cooperation between stakeholders Vehicle and infrastructure standards Facilitating RES-E integration Provide possibilities for RES-E charging

Globally coordinated development of standards Synergies can only emerge if technological development does not take different

directions

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Co-Evolution – General Requirements

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Both RES-E production and EV deployment rely on electricity grids Grids need to be sufficiently stable and/ or expanded for accommodating

New centralized (off-shore/ on-shore wind) and distributed (solar PV, micro-wind, etc.) production

Preference for centralized RES-E production means more attention on transmission grids. Security of supply is seen as more important than increasing the share of RES-E.

Additional distributed load Battery swapping stations could stabilize and centralize demand A preference for home charging means increased (distributed) household-load

Opportunities for high penetration of EVs Regulated charging

For better capacity utilization

For taking stress off the distribution grid (assets)

Storage of RES-E Increase share of RES-E

Provide reserve power for grid

Stabilize feed-in from volatile sources58

Co-Evolution – System Requirements

PV = PhotovoltaicsRES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources

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The two European island states take different routes

Iceland focuses on Hydrogen and Fuel cell vehicles Co-Evolution of RES-E to H2 and FCEVs possible

Economic crises have decreased the number of initiatives

Ireland promotes EVs Electricity market

Demand growth

Small difference between peak demand & installed reserve capacity

Few interconnections (2 more under construction)

High dependency on imported fuels

Opportunities for EVs Security of transport energy supply

Nighttime charging with excess wind power

Aran islands pilot project: becoming self-sustainable with local energy

Security of supply is main difference to Texas

Co-Evolution – Situation of Islands

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Targeted Numbers of EVs can be accommodated without major grid and/ or production expansion

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China

Europe

CanadaNorthern Europe

2020 – Target 2030 – Scenario 2020 – Target 2018

5 million EVs (≤ 7%)

200 million EVs 5 million EVs (2%)

0,5 million EVs (≤1%)

Need: 20 TWh Need: 800 TWh Need: 1,5 TWh

0,5% of electricity demand in 2008

20% of electricity demand in 2008

0,5% of electricity demand in 2008

+ 8% on projected demand 2050

0,2% of projected electricity demand in 2018

Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation

This Assessment only considers global values. Results can differ for local grids. Distribution grids in urban areas may experience overloads of assets first.

For average European grids up to 40% EV penetration does not create problems

For Beijing, 100% EV commuting could not be sustainedDetails in Annex A11

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Chinese and North American grids may be first to have problems with rising EV penetration Chinese grids are already now straining to keep up with the increased

demand due to the rapid economic growth Power shortages, especially in the densely populated areas, have to be expected

30-60% difference in electricity demand between peak times and base load leaves room for off-peak EV charging

Investments in North American grids have decreased over the years Grid assets are old

Local distribution grids may not have the strength to supply EVs

Challenges increase with rising penetration Quick-charge at peak hours has the highest possible impact on grids and power

generation capacity Daytime charging may require upgrades in local distribution systems

in China and North America

Regulated charging is expected to prevent impact on base load power plants61


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Renewable electricity and electric vehicles affect the stability of transmission and distribution grids Integration of distributed RES-E production and EVs influences stability of

distribution grids Communication infrastructure needed for controlled charging

Integration of large RES-E plants increases stress on transportation grids Expected increase of off-shore wind power is a challenge

European and especially Nordic grids are well designed and prepared for transporting RES-E

Modernizing and increasing the strength and flexibility in the grid will take place also without the expected increase of EVs.

Chinese grids will be strengthened with building extra high voltage transmission capacity

Grid expansion in North America is costly – especially for transmission infrastructure

Distributed generation with local grid reinforcement is a good first step Exploitation of resource-rich regions will be necessary for significant replacement

of fossil fuels (northern Canada (wind), western US deserts (sun), offshore wind).

Co-Evolution – Impact on grids

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The impact on grids and power production depends on time and method of charging Slow charging and Battery swapping are preferred by DSOs

Both methods spread the load over a longer period The centralized storage capacity of battery swapping stations makes them interesting for

ancillary services and demand response

Fast Charging has highest potential to destabilize the grid

Time of Charging impact Daytime, especially peak time charging will most likely result in overload in assets,

especially in urban regions (demand centers, high population and vehicle density) Nighttime charging:

The grid has transmission and distribution capacity available The use of “spinning reserve” on the grid may become more efficient RES-E that otherwise would not be fed in can be used increased use of base load power plants possible

greater coal consumption increase in GHG-emissions

Charging strategies for smart grids may focus on using RES-E for charging

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Co-Evolution – Impact on Infrastructure

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Possible strategies: Preference for charging with RES-E

EVs (+ smart charging) canincrease uptake of RES-E

Smart charging makes volatile RES-E a better business case

Charging in load valleys (with RES-E) Price difference of 0.6 ¥/ kWh

An accounting system and charging infrastructure are now being built in the Nordic Countries.

Smart meters are put up as part of the "Introduction package" offered by "Better Place".

Smart meters are already installed in large scale in Sweden and Norway

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Regulated Charging is the first step to reduce the impact on grid stability and power generation


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ConventionalGrid

ConventionalGrid

UnregulatedCharging

Chargingwith RES-E

Charging

Infrastructure

Accountin

g

syste

m

Frequency

stability

Voltagestability

RegulatedCharging

Smart Meter

Smart Grids

Regulated Charging

(reducing overloads)

ICT

Communication with

Local Network Stations

Adva

nced

ICT

Area wide charging stationsReduced loadduring fault

Additional

spinning reserve

Demand Side

Management

Negative

spinning re

servePos

itive

spi

nnin

g re

serv

eActive load management Ancillary services

Bidirectional

ancillary services

Intermittent storageFeed-In of

stored RES-E

Feed-In during faultBidirectional

charging infrastructure

Integration of RES-E Supporting RES-E with EVs

Integration of EVs

Technical requirements

for grid support

Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

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Today‘s Situation

66

A strong conventional grid can take up small penetrations of EVs and RES-E

EVs only charge unregulated First trials with smart meters

– not necessarily in combination with EVs Italy Sweden Norway Denmark Germany China

First V2G trials in North America RES-E integration depends on national electricity market’s regulation

Conventional Grid

Unregulated Charging


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Technical requirements for grid support Frequency stability Voltage stability

Both are guaranteed by implementing simple charging control systems

Increased transmission efficiency and robustness

Stability and efficiency of grid needed for further development

Next Steps have begun

Integration of RES-E Implementation of distributed generation

and local grid expansion in North America

Supporting RES-E with EVs Charging with RES-E

Reduces EV emissions Incentive for increasing RES-E share

Major RES-E bases will be constructed Extra High Voltage long-distance

transmission Transporting power to demand centers

Integration of EVs Charging infrastructure

First implementation in Pilot Projects

Accounting system Is already being built in Nordic European

Countries and in some Chinese pilot cities

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Charging with RES-E

Charging Infrastructure

AccountingSystem

Frequency& VoltageStability


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Technical requirements for grid support Regulated charging

Reducing overloads of assets Lack of standard in China today

Automatic Power Distribution Distributing power according to demand

Near Future

Integration of RES-E Smart Meter & Smart Grids

Enable more services for RES-E support First trials in place in different regions

Extra High Voltage Transmission For transporting RES-E to demand centers

Supporting RES-E with EVs Regulated Charging

Higher penetration/ share without major impacts

Integration of EVs Information and Communication

Technology For better vehicle control

Communication with local network stations

Information and Communication stations

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Smart Grids Regulated Charging

ICT


Regulated Charging

Smart Meter


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Technical requirements for grid support Additional spinning reserve

Secure grid balance

Reduced load during fault Stabilizing the grid Not in place or allowed in China today

Strong smart grid Managing impacts and optimizing

demand satisfaction

Phase 2 Development?

Integration of RES-E Negative spinning reserve & Demand

side management Secure balance of RES-E production and

consumption

Supporting RES-E with EVs Active load management

Increase RES-E take-up in times of energy surplus

Ancillary services (unidirectional) Stabilizing the grid

Integration of EVs Advanced Information and

Communication Technology Enabling V2G services

Area wide charging stations Infrastructure covering large – medium

cities

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NegativeSpinning

Reserve

DSM Active load management

Ancillary services

Area widecharging stations

Advanced ICTAdditional

spinning reserve

Reduced load during fault


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Full Co-Implementation

Integration of RES-E Feed-In of stored RES-E

For massive RES-E integration

Positive spinning reserve

Supporting RES-E with EVs Intermittent storage

For high demand times

Bidirectional ancillary services

Integration of EVs Bidirectional charging infrastructure

Enabling revenue for vehicle owners

Technical requirements for grid support Feed-In during fault Feed-In of stored Renewable Electricity

For benefits of EV development

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Feed-In ofstored RES-E

Positivespinning reserve

Intermittent storage

Bidirectional ancillary service

Bidirectional charging infrastructure

Feed-In during fault

Feed back to grid


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Distributed expansion of both RES-E and the grid will enable higher shares in North America

Smart Meter and Smart Grids enable the grid to provide more services to support RES. Extra-High Voltage (EHV) Transmission enhances electricity transmission from remote energy resources to demand centers

Demand side management and spinning reserve secure the balance between consumption and production of RES. Strong Smart Grid balances consumption and production of RES-E

The Feed-in of stored energy allows a massive integration of RES-E.

Today’s penetration of renewable energy sources can be handled with the conventional grid. The Nordic and the Canadian grids are prepared for large penetrations of renewable energy sources

Feed-in of stored renewable energy

Positive spinning reserve (bidirectional)

Negative spinning reserve (unidirectional)

Demand side management

Smart Grids

Smart Meter

Integration of RES-E

Conventional grid

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wth

in re

new

able

ene

rgy

sour

ces

Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV 71

Voltage/ frequency stability

EHV transmission

Strong Smart Grid


Distributed expansion

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Increased robustness and transmission efficiency are needed for a rising penetration of RES-E and EVs. To guarantee the frequency and voltage stability of the grid some simple regulations can be implemented in EVs.

Regulated charging can avoid overloads of assets. Automatic power distribution is the foundation of distribution of power according to demand.

Additional spinning reserve guarantees the balance of the grid. Strong Smart Grid manages the impact of RES-E and EVs and optimizes the demand satisfaction

Special strategies during fault times support the fast stabilization of the grid.

Feed-in during a fault

Additional spinning reserve Reduce energy demand during a fault

Frequency stability

Voltage stability

Technical Requirements for grid support

To support the grid for a rising penetration of RES-E and EVs, changes in the operating behavior might be necessary.

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Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV 72

Increased robustness

Increased transmission

efficiency

Strong Smart Grid

Feed back to grid


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Charging infrastructure - bidirectional

Area-wide charging infrastructure

Advanced ICT


ICT

Accounting system

Pilot Charging infrastructure

Requirements for a high integration of EVs

To integrate a significant amount of EV and PHEV, technical requirements have to be fulfilled.

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wth

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ene

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ces

Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV

An accounting system and charging infrastructure are obligated as soon as possible. Both are currently being built in Nordic Countries.

To control the vehicles a communication infrastructure has to be established.

To provide V2G services more communication signals are required. With rising penetration of EV and RES-E, more charging/swapping infrastructure is needed.

A bidirectional power connection is required to earn revenue for the vehicle owner.

Conventional grid

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Information and Com- munication Stations


in large-medium

cities


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Electrical vehicles profit not only from the collaboration with RES, they can support a high penetration of RES in the grid!

Intermittent storage of energy from RES Providing ancillary services

(bidirectional)

Active load management storing energy from RES

Providing ancillary services (unidirectional)Regulated charging

Charging with RES-E

Supporting RES with EVs

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wth

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new

able

ene

rgy

sour

ces

Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV

Unregulated charging

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Major RE bases

Long distance Transmission


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Policy frameworks are developing towards Co-Evolution

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Opportunities for Co-Evolution

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Co-Evolution faces cultural and economic barriers

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Challenges for Co-Evolution

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Policies from one region might be interesting options for others

Context – Needed Policies for Co-Evolution

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Phase 2Deployment

Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

Two-phase long-term policy approach needed for large scale Co-Evolution of EVs and RES-E

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Phase 1Market Preparation

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Regulatory framework

Emission targets for electricity production and vehicle fleets warrant other support policies

Targets for the deployment of electric vehicles are an incentive for first deployments

Standards for vehicles and infrastructure provide security for manufacturers

ConsequenceLegitimate base for further policies Opposition from the people (North America)

Feasibility Feasible in all regions Emission targets are more easily implemented for electricity

than for existing vehicle fleets Standards have to be based on technological consideration and have to be

implemented quickly 79


Phase 1

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Build-up of infrastructure

Governments support Electric Vehicles by building up charging infrastructure

ConsequenceGood network possible also for rural areas Costs for society

Feasibility May be feasible in China Highly unlikely in Europe and North America

However, subsidies for the construction of new charging infrastructure are feasible

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Phase 1

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Coupling Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles

Hard Coupling Electricity for charging electric vehicles is coupled to the absolute additional RES-E share in

the electricity mix

Cap and Trade Electricity production or the deployment of vehicles have to fulfill emission targets (cap) Any additional demand for electricity or additional deployment of vehicles has to be provided

from carbon-neutral sources or has to be compensated by GHG emissions reduction measures applied to other emitters that are part of the system (trade)

Manufacturers’ investments in RES-E Vehicle manufacturers can count their electric vehicles as zero-emission vehicles if they

finance new RES-E production

Grid Stabilization Bonus System Operators pay this bonus for plugged-in electric vehicles that can either provide

demand side management or ancillary services

Tax Exemptions for Charging RES-E Electric vehicles are only eligible for tax exemptions if they charge RES-E

Re-Investing electricity tax from charging current

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Tax Exemptions for Charging RES-E

Vehicles are eligible for tax exemptions if they charge RES-E Exemptions from annual vehicle/ motor/ circulation taxes

Consequence Additional RES-ECost benefits for EV owners as an incentive

Increased willingness to plug in?

Costs Advanced billing system and separate metering needed

Feasibility Feasible for low penetrations of EVs. Phase-out for higher penetrations EV owners have to be able to exclusively charge RES-E

Feasible in all regions

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Phase 1

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Re-Investing Electricity Tax

The electricity tax from the traction current is invested in additional RES-E

Consequence Additional RES-E Special electricity tariff/ separate metering for EVs needed Market distortion in deregulated markets

Feasibility Feasible in all regions In North America this option might be possible only within one interconnection-area

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Phase 1

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Hard Coupling

Coupling electricity for EVs and absolute RES-E Targets Additional EVs have to be met with additional RES-E capacity

ConsequenceEVs powered by pure additional RES-E Costs (user & society)

Feasibility Unlikely for North America, because profitability is key for public acceptance of both

EVs and RES-E Feasible for Europe but concerns exist that this option may slow down

EV or RES-E deployment In China – based on policies until today – this option is unlikely.

However, if RES-E production is increased significantly and charging business models are set up, Hard Coupling may become feasible

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Phase 1

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Manufacturers‘ investments in RES-E

EVs are considered Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in return for investments in renewable electricity

OEMs invest in additional renewable electricity production (depending on MJ/km per sold EV)

DSOs invest energy tax for traction current in additional RES-E

ConsequenceAdditional RES-E Can lead to more emissions from ICEVs – Coupling to fleet emission standards! Conflicts of interests possible

Feasibility Feasible in Europe, has to be introduced for all countries The vertically integrated electricity markets in China and North America may

impede implementation (if OEMs are new players in the market)

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Phase 1

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Cap and Trade

A Cap and Trade system for fleet emissions per vehicle manufacturer Comparable to the ETS and other C&T systems, emission targets will be adjusted

over time Earnings from the emission certificates trading can be invested into new RES-E

ConsequenceAdditional RES-E / CCS Needs strong regulatory framework Takes effect only on new vehicles

Feasibility Feasible in all countries Less likely in North America and China because national Cap and Trade systems for

GHG emissions do not exist yet.

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Phase 2

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Grid Stabilization Bonus

EVs receive a bonus payment for plugging in and thus being available for storage and feed-in of volatile RES-E

ConsequenceBetter RES-E utilizationStable grids Advanced metering and implementation (billing!) needed

Feasibility This option is only feasible, if advanced metering (bidirectional!) is already installed

on a large scale Profitability is key for successful implementation First Countries: Italy, Sweden, Norway ?

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Phase 2

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A policy framework for the transition towards a sustainable transport sector is in process in Europe Today – Current directives

Increase of RE-share in Primary Energy mix 10% share of RE in land-based transport by 2020

Future – White Paper on future transport Focus on Cities New Concept of mobility – Systems’ approach Long term objectives, legal & regulatory framework,

open standards, interoperability Revision of the Directive on Energy Taxation Internalize externalities & eliminate distortionary subsidies Replacing CO2-standards with energy efficiency standards

Speed limits Revision of driving license directive


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Co-Evolution – Technology Roadmap

Penetration rate of electric vehicles

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Two Phase Development for Co-Evolution

Phase 1 (Today – 2015): Market preparation Pilot projects and other incentives for RES-E and EVs Cost reduction and quality improvement Standardization

Phase 2 (Future): Measures aiming at increased deployment and system integration Cooperation between all actors is key

This two phase development and its stakeholders are presented for each region on the following slides.

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Co-Evolution – Two Phase Roadmap

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North America – Consumer demand drives Co-Evolution Actors

Government/ Regulators – federal support unlikely Electricity sector – nationwide bidirectional smart grid highly unlikely Vehicle manufacturers – production capacity from conventional manufacturers needed

Phase 1: Local change

Implementation of RES-E and EV support policies Deployment targets for RES-E and EVs Pilot projects in public-private-partnerships

Increasingly strict national and local fuel efficiency standards and consumer demand drive EV production

Grid reinforcement and charging infrastructure develop alongside EV deployment Public information campaigns

Phase 2: Increasing demand drives EV deployment and infrastructure change Unbundling of the electricity sector is promoted for easier market penetration V2G pilot projects Consumer demand for V2G and FIT

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Actors for Co-Evolution

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Co-Evolution – Actors

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Europe – Adaptation of existing policies leads to Co-Evolution Actors

Governments/ European institutions Vehicle Manufacturers System Operators Utilities

Phase 1: Vehicle charges and taxes are revised (external costs and environmental performance criteria) Further growth of RES-E production – Continuation and revision of RES-E support policies Harmonization of standards across Europe Coordinated network development and system integration V2G pilot projects Information campaigns

Phase 2: Full internalization of external costs Further GHG emission reduction policies Europe-wide charging infrastructure

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Meinerzhagen

Slide from Retrans1

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China – Rapid production increases drive Co-Evolution Actors

Government Vehicle Manufacturers Electricity Sector

Phase 1: Nationwide standardization Development of low-speed low-cost EVs for the mass market Construction of major RES-E bases for a 25% share in the electricity mix Increase long-distance transmission capacity and develop smart grid technology Provide incentives to both manufacturers and private consumers, and attract investment from

private equity

Phase 2: Long-distance transmission of electricity from remote resources Improved batteries make EVs competitive with conventional cars Nationwide availability of charging infrastructure and V2G

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Chapters



Table of Contents

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Consistent long term policy is required for stimulating large scale introduction of EVs and Co-Evolution with RES-E

Provide security of investment for car industry and infrastructure providers (Security of the existing tax exemptions )

Mandatory targets for EV-numbers and RES-E share Standards development Investments in infrastructure

Involve a variety of actors Coordinate network development and system integration to allow high

penetrations of EV and RES-E This is already taking place in the national Nordic TSO's and in the context of

ENTSO-E Grid reinforcement and upgrade RET integration Coordinate system integration among grids and vehicle/battery manufacturers

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Conclusions

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Actions for Co-Evolution‘s stakeholders

Government and regulators Determine regulatory and market solutions that can mobilize private sector

investments Determine regulatory solutions that link EV deployment and RES-E Infrastructure strategy should reflect regional needs and conditions Plan for evolution in regulation along with technology development Invest in research, development and demonstration (RD&D) that address system-

wide and broad-range sectoral issues, and that provide insights into behavioral aspects of EV use and RES-E charging.

Lead education on the value of EVs with respect to environmental benefits and lessening fear of performance restrictions

International governmental organizations Co-ordinate international standardization issues for cross-national compatibility Support the RD&D of EV system solutions for developing countries

through targeted analysis, roadmapping exercises and capacity building. Support international collaboration on and dissemination of RD&D on EVs

and infrastructure, including business and regulatory experiences.99

Conclusions

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Actions for Co-Evolution’s stakeholders

TSOs/ DSOs Help develop business models that ensure all stakeholders and customers share

risks, costs and benefits. Promote adoption of real-time energy-usage information and pricing Co-operate with OEMs for interoperability standards and post-installation support

Utilities System stabilizing bonus for plugged EVs that provide flexibility

to increase use of variable generation? Co-operation with regulators to facilitate implementation of RES-E

and EV connection to the grid

OEMs International strategy and standards for interoperability of system components

thus reducing risk of technology obsolescence Address concerns with technology system integration,

long-term post-installation support and security and reliability Aggressive marketing and information campaigns for EVs

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Conclusions

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North America & Europe

Cities and urban areas will be breeding grounds for EV deployment and charging infrastructure

EV expansion to rural areas is highly unlikely in the medium term due to infrastructure and social acceptance issues

In Phase 1 EVs will not feed back power to the grid outside of pilot projects

No problems arise in European grids for the projected low shares of EVs

Measures for increased deployment: Support policies (subsidies, tax benefits and other support policies)

Battery cost reduction / improved performance

Public information campaigns

Measures for system integration Get ISO’s involved in pilot projects or local development projects

Grid upgrades and smart grid development to allow for bi-directionality and regulation

Regulate grid expansion as a part of a feed-in tariff program (eg. suggested for Province of Ontario)

Conclusions


China – Co-Evolution requires changes in renewable electricity and electric vehicles deployment Both grid and battery technology require technological innovation in China in

order to support the integration of EV and RE Charging models must be matched with RE grid interaction models in order to

take advantage of clean energy in EVs, and suitable business models need to be developed

Emphasis should be on increasing overall RE on the grid At this time, China is focusing on large-scale RE including wind and solar projects,

with little attention paid to distributed RE generation. Private power plants are not approved in China at this time. All power must enter

the grid and be downloaded from the grid.

There should also be an emphasis on increasing population of EVs – to the scale of millions of vehicles.

It is unlikely that smart grid will be economically viable or technologically useful without such large numbers.

Incentives are needed for both vehicles and grid companies in order to attain a critical mass of vehicles and smart grid participants.

Conclusions

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Comparison of regionsCharacteristics

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Conclusions

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Policy Recommendations by Region

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Conclusion


Comparison of regionsLessons learned so far Outcome of pilot projects:

EVs alone cannot solve traffic problems – an integrated approach and a new concept of transport are necessary

User acceptance: EVs for a set purpose are well accepted

Business cases: Car-sharing/ Mobility Partnerships for commuting

Usage patterns: Local solutions for traffic problems and personal mobility

Influence of RES-E deployment and potential Potential for RES-E not fully exhausted yet

Sustainability of RES-E for EVs absolutely vital for ecological benefits

Electricity tariffs that guarantee RES-E for charging EVs are needed

Conclusions


Comparison of regionsLessons learned so far Policy options & public acceptance

An uninformed public does not accept EV promotion “from above”

Information campaigns on the benefits of EVs needed Including financial, fiscal and non-monetary benefits for users

Policies furthering EVs and RES-E have to be adapted to regional characteristics

Important regional differences between policies in Phase 1

Possible synergies between regions in Phase 2

Skepticism regarding Co-Evolution Low RES-E shares reduce benefits

Technological and regulatory hindrances in foreground

Conclusions


Follow-up work

Analysis of the outcome of the different pilot projects Which co-operations were fruitful and why

What makes EVs successful

Experience with Co-Evolution

Appraisal of technical / grid-related boundaries and barriers to Co-Evolution

Impact Assessment of policy options

Conclusions

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Table of Annexes

A1 – Acronyms A2 – References A3 – List of subsidies and incentives for EVs A4 – Pilot projects in the three regions A5 – Policies concerning EV deployment A6 – List of available EV models A7 – Standards A8 – Renewable Energy policies A9 – Expected growth in electricity sector A10 – Revenue from Ancillary services for EVs A11 – Impact of EVs on grids and production A12 – Two phase development of Co-Evolution A13 – Road infrastructure

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THANK YOU!

For additional information on RETD

Online: www.iea-retd.orgContact: [email protected]

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Documents

12. July 2011