11th Euro-Mediterranean Economic Transition Conference – Mediterranean Economies and the

Immediate Environmental Challenge

“Costs of climatic changes and environmental degradation - Benefits of preventive action”Brussels (Belgium, 18 June 2007)

Presentation by Luigi Cabrini, Director, Sustainable Development of Tourism at the panel:

International Tourism, 2006* International tourist arrivals and market share (%)

Americas136 million

16%Africa

40 million5%

Middle East 41 million

5%

Asia / Pacific 167 million

20%

Europe458 million

54%

Source: World Tourism Organization*Preliminary results

Western Europe149 mn (+4.3%)€ 98 bn (2005)

Northern Europe56 mn (+6.6%)€ 43 bn (2005)

Central and Eastern Europe88 mn (+1.0%)€ 26 bn (2005)

Southern Mediterranean Europe165 mn (+4.2%)€ 113 bn (2005)

International Tourism in Europe, 2006International Tourist Arrivals

458 million (+3.9%)or 54 % of the world total

International Tourism Receipts, 2005€ 280 billion

or 51% of the world total

Receipts per arrival € 625

1.4 (1)

78.0

58.518.9

6.66.6

1.68.7

14.3*

1.1

0.2

3.4 (1)

1.8

1.1

0.1(2)8.2 (1)

0.7

2.4

11.3

41.1

3.2

0.4

International Tourist Arrivals in the Mediterranean (2006, million)

(1) 2005; (2) 2004

4.4 4.2 4.0

7.2

5.6

7.8

4.7

0.6

8.3

3.53.9 3.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

France Ital

ySpai

nPortu

galGree

ceTurk

ey MaltaCypr

usEgyp

t*Tuni

siaMoro

ccoSlov

ania

Aver

age

grow

th ra

te (%

)

International Tourism in the MediterraneanAverage growth rate 1990-2000

Source: World Tourism Organization

0.2 0

3.4

-1.2

1.7

6.8

12

-1.3 -1.9

10

4.4

7.4 6.8

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

France Ital

ySpai

nPortu

gal

Greece*

Croatia

Turkey

MaltaCypr

usEgyp

t*Tuni

sia

Morocco

Sloveni

a

Aver

age

grow

th ra

te (%

)

International Tourism in the MediterraneanAverage growth rate 2000-2006

Source: World Tourism Organization* 2000-2005

International Tourist Arrivals

58.5

41.1

18.9

14.3

11.3

8.7

8.2

6.6

6.6

78.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

France

Spain

Italy

Turkey

Greece*

Portugal

Croatia

Egypt*

Morocco

Tunisia

million

Top Tourism Destinations in the Mediterranean 2006

International Tourism Receipts (€)40.7

34.2

30.7

13.4

11.4

6.6

6.3

6.1

4.8

0 10 20 30 40 50

Spain

France

Italy

Turkey

Greece

Portugal

Croatia

Egypt

Morocco

billionSource: World Tourism Organization

* 2005 data

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

milli

on

Actual Tourism 2020

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision

1,0 bn

842 m

1,6 bn

Source: World Tourism Organization

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

milli

on

Actual Tourism 2020

Europe - Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision

492 m458 m

667 m

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

mill

ion

South AsiaMiddle EastAfricaEast Asia/PacificAmericasEurope

Actual Forecasts

808 mn

1 bn

1.6 bn

International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2020Current situation and forecasts WTO Tourism 2020 Vision

Quote from the Secretary-General ofUNWTO:

“The world tourism industry has entered a new phase of its growth; but it is anothertype of growth: more moderate, more solidand more responsible”.

Increasing pressure on the environment of tourism destinations

Need for the sustainable development of the tourism sector

Continuous expansion of tourism

UNWTO Technical publications:•Guidelines•Manuals•Studies•Recommendations•Case studies

Voluntary initiatives

Local authorities

Island and coastal destinations

Ecotourism, market studiesCompilations of good practices

National parks, protected areasPoverty reduction

Indicators of sustainable tourism

Congestion managementCultural heritage

Climate change

Access: UNWTO E-LIBRARY

The mostcomprehensive

guidebook:

Making Tourism More Sustainable -A Guide for Policy

Makers

12 Aims of Sustainable Tourism

Aims1. Economic prosperity

a. To ensure the long term competitiveness, viability and prosperity of tourism enterprises and destinations.

b. To provide quality employment opportunities, offering fair pay and conditions for all employees and avoiding all forms of discrimination.

Aims2. Social equity and cohesion

a. To enhance the quality of life of local communities through tourism, and engage them in its planning and management.

b. To provide a safe, satisfying and fulfilling experience for visitors, available to all without discrimination by gender, race, religion, disability or in other ways.

Aims

3. Environmental and cultural protection

a. To minimize pollution and degradation of the global and local environment and the use of scarce resources by tourism activities.

b. To maintain and strengthen cultural richness and biodiversity and contribute to their appreciation and conversation.

International recognition of potentials of sustainable tourism development

1. The UN Commission on Sustainable Development, 7th session, 1999

2. The UNWTO Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, 19993. Convention on Biological Diversity, Guidelines on Biodiversity and

Tourism Development, 20034. Quebec Declaration on Ecotourism, 20025. Article 43 of the Plan of Implementation, World Summit on

Sustainable Development, Johannesburg, 20026. Sustainable Tourism – Eliminating Poverty (ST-EP), 2002

Recognitions by UN S.G., Global Summit, EU Parliament,Support by The Netherlands, Germany, Italy, France

• UNWTO Technical Conferences and Seminars:-Sustainability Certification of Tourism Activities (Mariánské Lázně, Czech Republic, 2004)

-Tourism: A tool for sustainable development in transitional economies (Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro, 20-21 June 2005)

- Sustainable Development of Tourism in Central and Eastern Europe (Vilnius, Lithuania, 28 February-1 March 2007)

-Workshop on Sustainable Tourism Indicators and Destination Management (Montenegro, 25-26 April 2007)

• Tourism Sustainability Group – European Commission

• Coastal destinations: Plan Bleu, Blue Flag

• Local Agenda 21 at destinations (Calvia, Rimini, Algarve, Huelva, cooperation with ICLEI)

• Technical assistance and advice (Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania)

UNWTO Support to Sustainable Tourism Policies in Europe

Tourism and Climate Change:a two-way relationship

• Climate change is no longer a “remote” eventand already impacts tourism

• Tourism contributes to global warming

Climate Futures

Source: IPCC 4th assessment report, Feb. 2007

The climate map of Europe 2071

Photograph: Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement and Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France. Hallegatte et al 2007

Impacts of Climate ChangeEnvironmental impacts:

– Coastal regions and islands:

– Ecosystems: biodiversity loss(fauna and flora), receding forest areas

– Deserts: increased desertification, soil salinization.– Polar and mountain zones: retreating glaciers and snow caps, changing

precipitation regimes, reduction of winter sports season

• raising sea levels, increased droughts, floods or storm activity (loss of lives and damage of infrastructure), erosion, heat stress, biodiversity loss, coral bleaching, increasing vector borne diseases

Coastal Erosion

Alpine Europe:

¾ of glaciers lost by 2050 + changing snow

conditions

Western Europe:By end of century heatwaves as warm and as dry as 2003 will

occur every 2nd year

Northern and Eastern

Mediterranean:Increased

frequency of heat waves and drought

Northeastern USA:Decrease in winter

snowfalls and in extreme cold spells

SoutheasternUSA, Mexico &

Caribbean:More destructive storms, especially

until the 2030s

China:Precipitation decreases

by up to 20%

Islands in South Pacific &Indian Oceans:

Increased topical cyclone intensity 5 to 20% increase in maximum wind speeds

Becken 2007

Climate Change-Tourism Illustrative “Hotspots”

Changes in demand patterns:– Tourism flows – increased temperatures of some

(northern/southern) territories creates “new” attractive andalternative destinations with seasonal changes

Socioeconomic impacts at destinations:– e.g. employment and labour demand, social infrastructure

Additional impacts on other sectors:– e.g. agriculture and handicrafts

Need for adaptation measures

Impacts of Climate Change (2)

•Environmental impact assessment for new developments

•Environmental management in tourism facilities (water saving devices, wastewater recycling, encouraging guests to collaborate)

•Sustainable Management of Eco-systems

•Preparedness and response to extreme weather events caused by climate change (hurricanes, heat waves, flood, etc.)

•Diversifying tourism products

Need for adaptation measures

• Summer Tourism: water-stressed areas to adapt withalternative tourism products/services – e.g. cultural or rural tourism

•Winter Tourism: ski resorts that are “snow-dependent” to adapt with snow-making machines (however, not verysustainable) but to also consider extendingseasonal activities – non-snow based –e.g. camping, mountain biking, etc.

Tourism contributes to global warming

• Tourism activity, primarily transportation services (road and air) and uncontrolled use of resources contribute to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)

• Initial estimate 5 % of total emissions of which 80-90% due to transportation (70% from aviation) and 10-20% for energetic consumption of tourist establishments (air conditioning, heating, electricity, etc) – more research required

What can be done?• Use of renewable energy (including biofuels), innovation

in transport to and within tourist destinations, more efficient handling of air traffic (e.g. shorter wait time for aircraft on ground); trading emission rights: “cap and trade”; trading of carbon credits (carbon offsets)

• Control of air transport for emissions can affect destinations (esp. developing countries): need for careful analysis of socioeconomic impacts

UNWTO initiatives in climate change and tourism

• First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism (April 2003, Djerba, Tunisia)Djerba Declaration on Climate Change and Tourism

•Reduction of greenhouse gases from the tourist sector•Management of impact of climate change at tourist destinations

• GEF pilot project on climate changeadaptation in tourism at SIDS(Fiji, Maldives…)

• WMO Expert Group on Tourismand Climate

IPCCWMO UNCCD

Events on Climate Changeand Tourism in 2007

• E-CLAT Technical Seminar "Policy Dialogue on Tourism, Transport and Climate Change: Stakeholders meet Researchers" Paris, France (UNESCO Headquarters), 15 March 2007

• International Conference on Secure and Sustainable Living: Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services19-22 March 2007, Madrid, Spain

Follow up to Djerba:• High-level Technical Conference

Davos, 1-3 October 2007

• Ministerial ConferenceLondon, WTM, November 2007

Thank you!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org