111

Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your InvestmentsWiesbaden – 06 May 2014

222

JEAN MÉDECIN, CFAMember of the Investment Committee

333

United States

444

Growth Benefits from the End of the Fiscal Drag Confirmation Expected on the Investment Front

* estimatesSource:LHS: CBO, JP Morgan, 09/12/2013RHS: Carmignac Gestion, CEIC, 31/12/2013

2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

0.4%

-0.6%

-1.2%

-1.8%

-0.8%

03/0009/01

03/0309/04

03/0609/07

03/0909/10

03/1209/13

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%Fiscal drag effect 2013-2014

(as % of GDP)Non-residential investment

555

Long Term Rates Reached All Time Lows in 2013 2014: Rising Long-term Yields, as Fed Initiates “Tapering”

Source: Bloomberg, 09/04/2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 US 10 years government bond yield

Tapering:

"In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labour market conditions, the committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases”.

Ben Bernanke, 18th December 2013

666

t0

Economic recovery

The Nature of the Interest Rate Risk in 2014

With QE

Long

-ter

m in

tere

st ra

te

Time

Economic recovery

t2

T1: time when recovery starts with QET2: time when recovery starts without QESource: Nomura, 22/10/2013

t1

Without QE

Long-term interest rates with and without QE

777

The FED’s DilemnaActive Management of Modified Duration will be Key

Source: Carmignac Gestion, Bloomberg, 28/04/2014

09/1310/13

11/1312/13

01/1403/14

04/142.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

US 10-year government bond yields and Carmignac Patrimoine Modified Duration

Modified duration as at 28/04/14: -0.28

Modified duration as at 31/01/14: +0.08

Modified duration as at 15/11/13: -0.98

Normalisation of US monetary policy

For the third time in as many meetings, the FOMC voted to continue its QE tapering

However, it has been noted that: inflation remains below the

Fed’s long-term target the FOMC will no longer rely on

unemployment reaching 6.5% to raise its key interest rates

Interest Rate

Strategy

888

A Competitive Advantage Linked to the Energy Revolution

Source: Left: IEA Data, 2012Right: Stifel, November 2013* estimates

Global Natural Gas Prices (USD/MMBTU)

Japan NGL EU Natural GasUS Natural Gas

X5

US Ethylene production capacity (000 t/y)

Equity Strategy

Stock in the portfolio:LyondellBasell, a leading world polyolefins producer

999

Source: INGAA Foundation, Inc*Capital expenditures reported in 2011 Study were converted from 2010$ to 2012$ using a 4% inflation factor.

Crude oil Natural Gas NGL0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Average annual for 2012 to 2035 (2011 forecast)Average annual for 2014 to 2035 (2014 study)

x 4.3

x1.7

x8.9

Comparison between 2011 and 2014 studies on capital expenditures

Billions of real dollars

Oil Services

Schlumberger

Core Laboratories

Construction and Engineering

Jacobs Engineering Group

Fluor Corporation

Our stocks to play this theme

Equity Strategy

Shale Oil & Gas: Driving higher Energy related Capital Expenditures

101010

Europe

111111

Structural Reforms are Positive and Necessary

2 21.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Source: J.D.Power and Associates, McGraw Hill Financial., LMC Automotive, 31/12/2013Figures for 2014 and 2015 are forecasts, 2013 figures are forecasts for France

France Car Production

Spain Car Production

Light Vehicle ProductionFrance vs Spain

121212

Is the Eurozone Facing a Deflationary Threat?Germany is Not Escaping from Deflationary Pressures

Source: Left: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Les cahiers verts de l’économie, April 2014Right: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014

Private sector lending, YoY German inflation

Household lending (consumer and other)Residential mortgagesNon-financial business lending

131313

03/1103/12

03/1303/14

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

03/0903/10

03/1103/12

03/1303/14

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

03/0903/10

03/1103/12

03/1303/14

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Fixed Income: ECB’s Targeted Response to Recent Crises

Source: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014

Liquidity crisis Solvency Crisis Inflation?

Itraxx Senior

FinancialsSpanish 10-year yield

LTRODraghi “put”

Is the ECB

ready to act?

Eurozone inflation

141414

Fixed Income: Portugal Should also Benefit from European ConvergenceFundamentals are improving in terms of growth and budget forecasts

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Source: LHS: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014RHS: Japanese Ministry of Finance, March 2014*medium and long-dated bonds

Portugal

Italy

Spain

Allocation to European peripheral government bonds: 24.5%of which Portugal: 3.2%

Weekly Japanese investment abroad*Change in 10-year

government bond yields

Fixed IncomeStrategy

151515

Credit: a Point in the Credit Cycle Beneficial to Europe

Source: RBS Credit Strategy, Bloomberg, 31/03/2014

STABILISATIONRELEVERAGING

BUBBLE CONTRACTION

Fixed IncomeStrategy

European Economy is in a Phase of Stabilisation:

Moderate Growth Low Inflation Deleveraging Low Default Rates

European Credit: 19%

161616

Regulatory Ecosystem Reducing Vulnerability of European Financial System

Size of shock

Pric

e of

Ris

k

Vulnerability of Financial System

Vulnerability of Financial System with Tighter

Regulation

Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk

Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk

AT1

Coco

O-SIFI

G-SIFI

CCCB

CCB

MDA

Basel 3

CRD4

Solvency2

Leverage ratio

Bailinable buffer

LCR NSFR

SSM

SRM

SRF

DGS

AQRCCAR

SPE

MPE

OLA

RRM

Bailin

Living wills

PONV

PRA

Liikanen

VolkerDodd Frank

Corporate Bonds: We Favor the Financial Sector Fixed

IncomeStrategy

4.92%

6.83%

Average Yield

Subordinate

Contingent Convertibles

Source: Carmignac Gestion. Average yields are provided for Carmignac Patrimoine as of 31/03/2014.

171717

Emerging Countries

181818

Emerging Countries: Adjustments have been Made to Address Deficits

Source: Emerging Advisors Group, EM Monthly Chartbook, March 2014

% GDP12m cum

% GDPsa 3mma

IndiaTrade Balance and Current Account

Current AccountTrade Balance (right scale)

191919

Valuations and Sentiment are Supportive of a Rebound in EM Equities

Source: Left: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Les cahiers verts de l’économie, April 2014; Right: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey, 15/04/2014

Emerging Markets P/E vs. Developed Markets P/E*

Global Investor Positioning relative to history (z-score)

*MSCI EM and MSCI World

Underowned Overowned

Japan

UK

Eurozone

US

EM

EM cheap

EM expensive

202020

Chinese Demographic Dividend is Coming to an EndAutomation is expected to rise significantly in China

Source: IFR, Gavekal, 2013

China: Convergence of robot cost and wages

Avg. Industrial robot unit cost

2 years Foxconn salary

Hourly wage x 24 hours x # of days in 2 years2 years Foxconn salary =

USD

212121

Fanuc: A Long Term Growth Story50% of Sales in Asia ex-Japan

Source: IFR, Gavekal, 2013

Fanuc, a leader in automation and industrial robots

Low penetration of industrial robots in Emerging countries is a strong growth opportunity

A competition limited by high barriers to entry

Margins protected by a high value added products

Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10000 manufacturing employees

General industriesAutomotives

Equity Strategy

JapanChina

GermanyUS

MalaysiaTaiwan

Spain

S. KoreaFrance

222222

MSCI ChineMatériaux

ImmobilierEnergie

Alimentation, boissons et tabacLogiciels et internet en Europe

BanquesSemi-conducteurs

Equipement technologiqueTelecom

MSCI MondeEquipements de santéMoyens de production

Hôtels et loisirs aux USAHôtels et loisirs en Europe

Logiciels et internet aux USLogiciels et internet

AutomobileHôtel et loisirs en Chine

Indice Internet Chinois

0%1%3%

13%14%

19%19%19%20%22%23%

30%30%31%32%34%35%

40%84%

98%China Internet IndexChina Hotel, Resorts and LeisureAutomobilesSoftware and InternetUS Software and InternetEurope Hotel, Resorts and Leis-ureUS Hotel, Resorts and LeisureCapital goods Healthcare EquipmentMSCI AC WorldTelecomsTechnological EquipmentSemiconductorsBanksEurope Software and Internet Food, Beverages & TobaccoEnergyReal Estate MaterialsMSCI China

Chinese Markets Continue to offer Great Opportunities

Source: CICC Equity Strategy Research, March 2014

Performance 2013: MSCI AC World index industry groupsvs. internet & gaming

Macau Casinos Wynn Macau, Sands China

Internet Baidu

Infant Milk China Mengniu Dairy

Our Chinese Stocks

Equity Strategy

232323

Allocation Strategy

242424

CORE STRATEGIES/LONG-TERM CONVICTIONS TACTICAL STRATEGIES/MANAGEMENT OF

MODIFIED DURATION

Carmignac Patrimoine: Our Modified Duration Breakdown shows our Rate Convergence Conviction

Source: Carmignac Gestion, 14/04/2014

Finance 117bp

Energy14bp

Credit169bp

Peripheral sov.283bp

Italy138bp

Spain79bp

Reducing interest rate risk

Consumer Sector12bp

Portugal35bp

Total modified duration: -23bp

Focus on spreads

Ireland22bp

United States-370bp

Safe haven sov. -493bp

Japan-49bp

UK-26bp

Germany-49bp

Fixed IncomeStrategy

252525

Carmignac Investissement: Portfolio Construction

GLOBAL LEADERS EUROPEAN

STABILISATION

US Dollar Exposure

Cash Active Management of Interest Rate Risk

US GROWTHJAPAN

EMERGING MARKETS

Equity Strategy

262626

Equity Allocation: Summary and Prospects

Geographic Area

Macro- economic Visibility

Investors’ positioning Valuation

Potentialfor political

surprise Current equity

weighting

Possible Evolution

of Allocation

United States 44.0%

Europe 25.5%

Emerging 17.2%

Japan 9.4%

Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/03/2014

Stratégie actionsEquity

Strategy

272727

Nur für Informationszwecke / Ausschließlich für professionelle InvestorenDie in dieser Präsentation enthaltenen Daten und Informationen werden ausschließlich für Informationszwecke zur Verfügung gestellt. Sie stellen weder ein Angebot zum Kauf, eine Aufforderung zum Verkauf oder eine Anlageberatung dar, noch sind sie vertraglich bindend. Dieses Dokument kann inhaltlich verändert werden, ohne dass über diese Änderungen vorab informiert werden muß. Die in der Vergangenheit erzielte Wertentwicklung ist keine Garantie für künftige Ergebnisse. Die aufgeführten Wertentwicklungen verstehen sich nach Abzug von Verwaltungsgebühren. Der Wert einer Anlage kann bei Marktschwankungen steigen oder fallen, und Anleger können unter Umständen ihren ursprünglich investierten Betrag verlieren.Die in dieser Präsentation zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen sind nicht für Personen oder Einrichtungen in einem Land oder Rechtsraum gedacht, in denen ihre Verbreitung oder Nutzung den geltenden Gesetzen oder Vorschriften widersprechen oder di Verwaltungsgesellschaft dazu verpflichten würden, den Zulassungsvorschriften in diesen Rechtsräumen zu entsprechen.Risikoskala von 1 (geringstes Risiko) bis 7 (höchstes Risiko), wobei 1 nicht eine risikolose Investition bedeutet.Anlagen in die Fonds von di Verwaltungsgesellschaft sind auf Grundlage der aktuellen rechtlichen Unterlagen (Verkaufsprospekt, die wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen und Jahresberichte) vorzunehmen. Der Prospekt sowie das KIID sind am Geschäftssitz von Carmignac Deutschland GmbH, Junghofstraße 18 - 26, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, erhältlich. Diese Dokumente sind auch auf der Internetseite www.carmignac.de abrufbar.Diese sind kostenlos und in Papierform in Deutschland bei (FCP) Carmignac Deutschand GmbH (HRB 92565), Junghofstraße 18-24, 60311 Frankfurt am Main und (SICAV) Marcard, Stein & Co. AG, Ballindamm 36, 20095 Hamburg und in Österreich bei der Ersten Bank der Österreichischen Sparkassen AG, OE 01980533/ Produktmanagement Wertpapiere, Petersplatz 7, 1010 Wien, erhältlich.Urheberrecht: Die auf dieser Präsentation veröffentlichten Informationen sind das ausschließliche Eigentum von ihren Besitzern als auf jeder Seite aufgeführt

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