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10-2 Experimental Probability
Course 3
Warm UpWarm Up
Problem of the DayProblem of the Day
Lesson PresentationLesson Presentation
Warm UpUse the table to find the probability of each event.
1. A or B occurring
2. C not occurring
3. A, D, or E occurring
0.494
0.742
0.588
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Problem of the Day
A spinner has 4 colors: red, blue, yellow, and green. The green and yellow sections are equal in size. If the probability of not spinning red or blue is 40%, what is the probability of spinning green? 20%
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Learn to estimate probability using experimental methods.
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Vocabulary
experimental probability
Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
In experimental probability, the likelihood of an event is estimated by repeating an experiment many times and observing the number of times the event happens. That number is divided by the total number of trials. The more the experiment is repeated, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.
number of times the event occurs
total number of trialsprobability
A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws.
Example 1A: Estimating the Probability of an Event
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The probability of drawing a red marble is about 0.3, or 30%.
probability number of red marbles drawntotal number of marbles drawn
15 50
=
Estimate the probability of drawing a red marble.
A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 100 draws.
Check It Out: Example 1A
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The probability of drawing a purple ticket is about 0.55, or 55%.
probability number of purple tickets drawntotal number of tickets drawn
55 100
=
Estimate the probability of drawing a purple ticket.
Outcome Purple Orange Brown
Draw 55 22 23
A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws.
Example 1B: Estimating the Probability of an Event
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The probability of drawing a green marble is about 0.24, or 24%.
probability number of green marbles drawntotal number of marbles drawn
12 50
=
Estimate the probability of drawing a green marble.
A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 100 draws.
Check It Out: Example 1B
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The probability of drawing a brown ticket is about 0.23, or 23%.
probability number of brown tickets drawntotal number of tickets drawn
23 100
=
Estimate the probability of drawing a brown ticket.
Outcome Purple Orange Brown
Draw 55 22 23
A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws.
Example 1C: Estimating the Probability of an Event
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The probability of drawing a yellow marble is about 0.46, or 46%.
probability number of yellow marbles drawntotal number of marbles drawn
23 50
=
Estimate the probability of drawing a yellow marble.
A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 1000 draws.
Check It Out: Example 1C
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The probability of drawing a blue ticket is about .112, or 11.2%.
probability number of blue tickets drawntotal number of tickets drawn
112 1000
=
Estimate the probability of drawing a blue ticket.
Outcome
Red Blue Pink
Draw 285 112 603
Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Knights will win their next game.
Example 2: Sports Application
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Example 2 Continued
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The Knights are more likely to win their next game than the Huskies.
number of winstotal number of games
probability
probability for a Huskies win 13879 0.572
146probability for a Knights win 90 0.616
Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Cougars will win their next game.
Check It Out: Example 2
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Check It Out: Example 2 Continued
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
The Huskies are more likely to win their next game than the Cougars.
number of winstotal number of games
probability
probability for a Huskies win 13879 0.572
150probability for a Cougars win 85 0.567
Lesson Quiz: Part I
1. Of 425, 234 seniors were enrolled in a math course. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected senior is enrolled in a math course.
2. Mason made a hit 34 out of his last 125 times at bat. Estimate the probability that he will make a hit his next time at bat.
0.27, or 27%
0.55, or 55%
Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
Lesson Quiz: Part II
3. Christina polled 176 students about their favorite ice cream flavor. 63 students’ favorite flavor is vanilla and 40 students’ favorite flavor is strawberry. Compare the probability of a student’s liking vanilla to a student’s liking strawberry.
Insert Lesson Title Here
about 36% to about 23%
Course 3
10-2 Experimental Probability
