1 Who is Poor? What is Poverty?. 2 Why do we care about Poverty, Inequality, and Discrimination?

1

Who is Poor? What is Poverty?

2


Why do we care about Poverty, Inequality, and Discrimination?

3


How do you define poverty?

4


Consider following situations: A person makes $10,000/yr working minimum wage jobs and lives out of

an old station wagon. Does it matter that he has an MBA and spends most of his time surfing?

A woman lives with her relatively well off but aging aunt in a nice house where she receives free room and board. Much of her time is spent doing chores and escorting her aunt to social functions and outings. Her aunt routinely gives her $100/month for her own expenses. Does it make a difference if this woman enjoys the time with her aunt or if she

is doing it for the money and housing?

An aging widow has lived in a house in Silicon valley for 60 years that is now worth $750K. However, her only source of income is social security, which is barely able to pay for heating the house and subsistence food each month after taxes. Does it matter if she knows no one outside her immediate neighborhood.

5


What accounts for the distinctions in the above situations?

Is poverty relative?

6


So the question of “how should we measure poverty” is extremely tough.

How does the government measure poverty? Mollie Orshansky was an economist for the Social Security Admin in

the 60s. She calculated the cost of food for the minimal food plan developed by

Dept of Agriculture. She then used the fact that “most” families spend about 1/3 of their

income on food, and multiplied the cost of the minimal food plan by 3. This became the individual poverty line, with some slight adjustments

for family size. This line has then been simply adjusted using the CPI ever since. This calculation is made at the census family level (persons related by

birth, adoption, or marriage all residing together), so either all family members are poor or none are.

So what are current poverty lines?

7


Current poverty lines (2010) $10,830 for one person family $14,570 for two person family $18,310 for three person family $22,050 for four person family

What are issues with this measure?

8


National Academy of Sciences Report (1995) Relativeness - Poverty line should be fixed percentage of median

consumption of food, clothing and shelter (adjusted for family size) Employment Expenses - Certain expenses of employment

(transportation, child care) should be subtracted from the income used to measure poverty status.

Transfers - Government near-cash subsidies should be included income (food stamps, housing vouchers), as well as imputed rents for homeowners.

Cost of Living Variation - Poverty thresholds should be adjusted for regional variations in prices.

Health expenditures - Medical out-of-pocket expenses should be deducted from income.

Why haven’t these recommendations been implemented?

9


How do Poverty Rates differ using alternative measures?

Poverty Rates for Alternative Measures of Poverty (2001)Adjusted Adjusted for Med

for Medical Expenditures andOfficial Expenditures Geographic Location

Total poor 11.7 13.0 12.9

People in families 9.9 11.1 11.1Female Headed families 28.6 28.1 28.3

Younger than 18 16.3 15.3 15.418-64 10.1 11.3 11.365+ 10.1 17.1 16.2

Non-Hispanic White 7.8 9.4 8.8Black 22.7 22.2 21.8Hispanic 21.4 23.1 25.9

Northeast 10.7 11.1 13.8Midwest 9.4 10.4 9.0South 13.5 15.4 13.0West 12.1 13.5 16.1

10


Relative Poverty Measures Danziger, Haveman, Plotnick (1986)

Official poverty line 46% of median income in 1965, 37% of median income in 1983.

If “official” line had been maintained at 46% of median income, poverty rate would have risen 1.2 percentage pts, but according to absolute measure, poverty fell by 2.1 percentage pts between 1965 and 1983.

In 1993, poverty rate 40% of median income In 2005, poverty rate back to 36% of median income. So while official poverty rate fell by 2.5 percentage pts, relative

poverty increased by 2.6 percentage pts over this time period.

Should poverty be a “relative” measure? (e.g. ½ of median income)

11


What fraction of population is “poor”?

How have poverty rates changed over time?

What are main correlates to poverty?

12


Poverty Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

All Individuals

13


In his 1964 inauguration speech, Lyndon Johnson declared “War on Poverty”, which was the beginning of long-term federal poverty policy, including welfare and unemployment insurance.

14


Poverty Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

All Individuals

Individuals headed by Single Female

15


Poverty Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Whites

Black

Asian

Hispanic

16


Poverty Rates by Education 2006

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Less than HS HS Some College College ormore

17


The Dynamics of Poverty Rebecca Blank, It Takes a Nation

Looked at families over 1979-1991 Episodes of poverty are fairly frequent, with

1/3 of families having had at least one episode of poverty.

1/6 were poor 1 - 3 years of the 13. Only 5 percent of those experiencing

poverty (1.5 percent of whole pop) were poor all 13 years.

Does this necessarily imply that “long-term” poverty is quite rare?

18


Let’s build a simple model. Consider a group of 22 people, Each has a poverty spell lasting 10 years. However, each spell starts in a different

year, on each year from 1970-1991.

What will long-term (10 years) versus short-term (3 years or less) poverty look like over this time period?

19


1970 1979 1992

1970-1980

1971-1981

1972-1982

1973-1983

1974-1984

1975-1985

1976-1986

1977-1987

1978-1988

1979-1989

1980-1990

1981-1991

1982-1992

1983-1993

1984-1994

1985-1995

1986-1996

1987-1997

1988-19981989-1999

1990-20001991-2001

20


What else is difficult about measuring persistence of poverty?

21


What else is difficult about measuring persistence of poverty?

Recidivism (Ann Huff Stevens) – 1/4 of those who leave poverty in a

year will be under poverty line in the next.

Of those who have been out of poverty 2 years, 1/6 will slip back in poverty the next.

So almost 40% of those leaving poverty will be back under poverty line within 2 yrs. Are they “long-term”?

22


Other Difficulties in understanding and measuring dynamics of poverty?

Data shows that the fraction of a given group of poor people who leave poverty in a given year declines as time goes on.

What does this imply?

23


Suppose there are 2000 poor people in a given year. State-Dependence (i.e., longer you are poor, harder to leave poverty):

After 1 year - 37.5% chance of leaving poverty; after 2 years - 35% chance of leaving, after 3 years – 32.7% chance of leaving, after 4 year – 30.7% chance of leaving.

Heterogeneity: 1000 quick-exit types (50% chance of leaving each year) 1000 slow-exit types (25% chance of exiting each year).

Under each model, what would population look like 1,2,3,4 yrs out under each model?

How does answer to this affect policy?

Documents

1 Who is Poor? What is Poverty?. 2 Why do we care about Poverty, Inequality, and Discrimination?