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Social Analysis in PSIA

Renate Kirsch

Social Development Department

March, 2006

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Outline

Why do we emphasize on social analysis as an integral part of the PSIA approach?

How do you conduct Social Analysis in PSIA?

Missing: How to integrate economic and social analysis

PSIA process issues

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Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA)

PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of actual or potential policy interventions on the well-being of different social groups, with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable

PSIA focuses on The distributional impacts on different stakeholders, income and non–income dimensions The positive and negative impacts of reform

Goals Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups

(disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood lines) Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor reforms Facilitating the process: Building a broad constituency for change

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Poverty and Social Impact Analysis

A 10 Step approach? 1. Selecting the Reform2. Identifying stakeholders3. Understanding transmission channels4. Assessing institutions5. Gathering data and information6. Analyzing impacts7. Enhancing design and compensatory schemes8. Assessing risks9. Establishing monitoring and evaluation systems10. Fostering policy debate and feedback into policy choice

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4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA: Activities:

- Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process- Institutional Analysis - Monitoring during- Impact Analysis implementation-Risk Analysis

Social Analysis brings different research focus, generates different information, generated via different set of tools and methods

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PSIA: Main Elements

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Social Analysis in PSIA

Institutional: the “rules of the game” that people develop to govern group behavior and interaction in political, economic and social spheres of life

Political: the structure of power relations and often-entrenched interests of different stakeholders

Social: the social relationships that govern interaction at different organizational levels, including households, communities and social groups.

Important to signal that reforms are manifested through institutional mechanisms have important political economy dimensions have differential impacts on different social groups

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What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA? Explains how social identity and social relations may

affect reform outcomes and impacts (ethnic minorities in Laos)

Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and constraints (Tanzania Crop Board)

Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economy (Indonesia Imported Rice Tariff Pricing)

Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks (Zambia land reform)

Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms

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How to conduct Social Analysis in PSIA?

Toolkit for Institutional, Political and Social Analysis in PSIA (TIPS)

The Sourcebook describes good practice techniques for institutional, political and social analysis in PSIA

Based on lessons learned from five years of operational experience by World Bank, DFID, and other partners

The Sourcebook does not represent operational policy and does not prescribe minimum requirements for PSIA.

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PSIA Transmission mechanisms

Prices Employment Access to goods and services Assets Transfers and taxes Authority:

covers changes in power, structures and processes. Reforms often result in changes in decision making and in new

formulations of rights, obligations, incentives and sanctions that in

turn will influence the behavior of government actors and citizens.

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A framework for Social Analysis

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1.1. Understanding country context

Questions: What is the significance of: Historical context Political-ideological climate Political-institutional culture Economic and social make-up

Tools: Country Social Analysis Drivers of Change Power Analysis Governance Questionnaire

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Country Social Analysis (CSA)

CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of development interventions

provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in development, accessing public institutions and holding them accountable,

The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions:

Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social

groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor?

Power, institutions, and governance What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do

these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?

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Country Social Analysis: Guinea Bissau

Institutional context of the post-conflict period: analysis of political economy factors that contribute to understand its current state of institutional fragility and political and macroeconomic instability

Macroeconomic and fiscal policies for promoting sociopolitical stability and growth: the analysis reviews recent economic performance, and explores policy options for preserving sociopolitical stability

Agriculture sector and poverty reduction: impact of transactions costs on income generation and poverty reduction in the cashew sector. Attention to the need to diversify agricultural output

Education and health: Impact of cost recovery and functioning of the service delivery system.

Poverty analysis: an in-depth analysis of the socioeconomic profile, determinants of poverty and livelihoods of the poor using the 2002 ILAP and the 2005 QS and rapid appraisal data

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CSA: Guinea Bissau Recommendations

Poverty analysis: Develop a coherent and reliable poverty database over time

Institutional: Enhance political stability in order to mitigate risks of conflict as experienced in the past. Address:

security issues (improving living conditions in military barracks downsizing the armed forces, reforming the pension system, and balancing the ethnic composition of the security sector).

Land: implement the new Land Law in order to provide a legal and regulatory framework. Update the cadastre (to facilitate thee implementation of a land reform)

Macro-Fiscal policies: pursue essential expenditure programs in order to preserve social and political stability

Short-term: paying salaries, delivering social services, improving living conditions in military barracks, rehabilitating basic utility services);

Medium term: reducing the wage bill in non-productive segments of the public administration in the context of a PSR program

Agricultural development and poverty alleviation: Increase employment generation and value added: cashew processing Increasing food security and diversifying the growth base: (fruit exports and

rice production for internal consumption)

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1.2. Understanding policy reform context

1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their

position with respect to policy change? What motivates them?

Tools: Policy interest matrix Political mapping

1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis Questions: What are the institutional rules and

relationships that influence policy reform? Tools: Network analysis

Transaction cost analysis

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Political mapping: Import tariff removal on agricultural staple

Opposition sectors Support sectors Opposition sectors

External actors

International NGOs

World Bank, IMF, WTO

Sector position

Anti-system Legal opposition

Ideological support

Core support

Ideological support

Legal opposition

Anti-system

Social sectors

Small farmers in Region X

Urban consumers

Political actors

Opposition socialist party

Opposition

Neoliberal party

Rural Municipal govts

Pressure groups

Farmworker federation

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Network Analysis: How GOG agencies are linked by their expressed priorities with respect to the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy

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2. Understanding the policy implementation process Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to

explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention might work, or fail

Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual factors, mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s success or failure.

Stakeholders: focuses on interests and the relative importance and influence of different interests groups and actors and the role each might play in the implementation process

Institutions: as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated poverty and social impact of policy reform

Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms)

Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life: the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery), the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and the societal domain (governing community and family behavior).

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2. Understanding the policy implementation process

2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder AnalysisObjective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors. Tools: Stakeholder analysis matrices

Micro-political mappingForce field analysis

2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysisObjective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policyTools: Organizational (static and process) mapping

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Stakeholders Analysis

Effects of Tariff Reforms

Neutral Harm/OpposeBenefit/Support

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LegendGovernment National Unions Endusers

Residential ConsumersNational Government Trades Union Congress

Non-Residential ConsumersMinistry of Finance Civil Servants Association

SLT CustomersMinistry of Energy Ghana Bar Association

VALCONDPC Interest Groups

Irrigation FarmersGhana Water Co. Ltd. Association of Ghana Industries

Civil Society OrganisationGhana Chamber of Mines

Utilities Consumers Association of GhanaPolitical Parties

VRA/ NED Ghana National Association of ConsumersNew Patriotic Party

ECG ISODECNational Democratic Congress

TICO Energy FoundationConvention Peoples Party

Regulators MediaPeoples National Convention

PURC Development PartnersOthers

Energy Commission World Bank

IMF

DfID

DANIDA

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Analytical sequencing in Organizational mapping

Static Mapping Process MappingProcess Tracing

Identify and place actors in a spatial map

Examples:Chad cotton

Trace cause-effect flows in key processes between actors

Examples:Chittagong port

Map out the dynamics and relations between actors

Examples:Chad cotton

Figure 4.1. Analytical Sequencing in Organizational Mapping

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Cotton flow decrease in quality?

Producers

Marche Autogere

Transporters

CotonChadGinnery

Technical Transformation and Production

Duala-Japan-France-Europe

Interface

Convoyer

Commission de Classement

Accord d’Ouverture

Biased balance of power

He “travels with the cotton” … and with

bribes, in case cotton has been

downgraded

97% first class

cotton

CT resp. for quality of cotton after signing of Accord… in theory

“White as snow” … but

always downgraded!

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3. Understanding the impacts of policy reform

Objective: examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro levels

Social models are applied evaluating winners and losers understanding how different social groups act in the face of the events and how

institutions impact on their lives, Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts

of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilities

Methods and data Objective: Employing a common set of questions on impacts, linked to the

transmission channels Tools: A range of methods that generate both qualitative and quantitative data

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Impact analysis: Methods and data

The Method-Data Framework

Participatory methods

Ethnographic investigations

Rapid assessments

QUAL DATA

CONTEXTUAL METHODS

Longitudinal village surveys

Consumer Assessment

QUANT DATA

Qualitative module of questionnaire survey

Source: Adapted from Hentschel (1999)

Household and health surveys

Epidemiological surveys

National census

NON-CONTEXTUAL METHODS

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4. Policy Analysis: Assessing uncertainties and risks to policy reform

Objective: Assessing how confident we are that the predicted impacts will occur?

Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA data and analysis to

identify and map the risks to policy reform. Institutional risks, political economy, exogenous, and country risks

Scenario analysis help us choose the policy option that is most likely to result in our desired outcome (4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify scenarios for policy reform,

Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare and choose the preferred scenario)

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Challenges

Improving methodological rigor Use of standardized tools and field manuals to ensure consistency and

replicability Make assumptions transparent

Aligning economic and social analytic tools Integrate methods from the beginning and iteratively Use different techniques for triangulation

Strengthen in-country capacity for PSIA

Enhance policymakers ability to review results and consider policy alternatives Results have to be transparent, credible and easy to understand and

communicate Analysis will have to be disclosed for it to be useful for policy dialogue

Provide govt. and key stakeholders evidence to consider to inform policy debate and enhance ownership

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Importance of process

The policy process is critical for analysis to have meaningful impact on policy

Distinction between the process of undertaking PSIA from the policy process The latter is nested in country strategies and

policy dialogue such as PRSPs e.g., the World Bank has a separate GPN on

participation

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What determines the choice of analytical focus and methods?

the nature of impacts (direct and indirect) the channel through which impacts are transmitted

Prices Employment Access to goods and services Assets Transfers and taxes Institutional rules or Authority

data, resources, client capacity and time available

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Analytical focus vs type of data and analysis

Socio-cultural basis of social exclusion

Access to assets and services differentiated by

gender or ethnicity

Institutional

economics

Impact of removal of agricultural subsidies on

production

Qualitative analysis Quantitative analysis

Eco

nom

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oci

al

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Input flows (from projections to delivery) debt trap

Producers

Interface

Gestionnaire

DG ProductionCotonChad

International Bid

InternationalMarket Place Duala CotonChad

Areas Ginneries

Transporters

Interface

Unable to

provide

instructio

nsFixed demand not accounting for changing

needs

Separate bids

cause untimely- uncoordinated

distribution

-Unclear idea about input needs- Prices unknown

Inputs on credit, full cost deducted from final payment

Distribution of inputs

& collection of cotton

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DiagnosticStrategy design

Implementation of reforms

Ex ante PSIA

PSIA during implementation

PSIA monitoring

Monitoring

PSIA in the PRS-Cycle