1 Project Management Samuel BASSETTO, W37-07 [email protected] Khaled HADJI HAMOU Thanks to Khaled HADJI HAMOU

1

Project Management

Samuel BASSETTO, W37-07

[email protected]

Thanks to Khaled HADJI HAMOU Khaled HADJI HAMOU

2

BIG projects, small projects

• Examples?– Facility planning– Personnal insurance management method

implementation– Change of work– Redesign a building – New product development– Commercial introduction of a new product– Research partnership development for an

European Project

3

Outline

• Introduction & concepts

• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on Project’s planning– Focus on Project’s Quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up

• Bonus Slides

4

Historic Milestones

• Pyramids…• Vauban (measure of construction times) …• 1900 : Taylor/Fayol/Ford• 1915 : Gantt• 1950 : PERT (Program Evaluation and

Review Technic)• 1989 : Project management methods

5

Normative corporations

• AFITEP– Association Francophone de Management de Projet.

• IPMA – International Project Management Association

• PMIPMI– Project Management Institute

• Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)

6

Nowadays context

• Why a management based on projects ?– End date– Easy overview– Due date & delivrables => goal achievement (not

insured but facilitated)

7

Project : a definition

• 1st definition– The project is a response at challenging

constraints (innovation, deadlines, cost…) that enterprises are facing in their global competition

– The project structures a precise idea, and require human skills and means for its unique concretization, limited in the time

[Berry 96]

8

Project : some definitions

• PMBOK Definition– Efforts employed on a defined period for a service

or product creation

• AFITEP Definition– Important realization, with an end, time limited,

with a precise goal, requiring various ressources

9

Project some definitions

• Notions extracted from these definitions– The notion of goal– The notion of time– The notion of organization– The notion of ressources– The notion of structure (?)

10

Project : the ASQIMC definition

• Finally : – A way of working which

– Structures progressively an object driven by

– Quantitatives goals it– Identified clearly requirements and involves– Multiples skills which are under– Constraints

11

Typologies of projects

Characteristics ? Examples ?

(A) (B)

(C) (D)

Entrerprise

Project

12

The project management

• AFITEP Definition – The project management includes the

Plannification, Organization, Progression Follow up and the master of all aspects of project in a continuous process for goals achievement.

• PMI definition– Knowledge application, skills, tools and methods

employed by activities for achieving successfully goals of each projects.

13

Management

• Project « dash board »– Global overview– Project organization– Project status– Finance indicators– Main milestones– Delivrables– Risks

14

The project managment roots

• W : Who ?

• W : What

• W : Where ?

• W : When ?

• H : How ?

• H : How many ?

• W : WHY ?

15

Project management

• Answer questions:– Origins of the project :

WHY ?– MANDATORY for troops motivation

– Factor of success :WHAT ?

– Identify what is inside the project WHO?

– Who leads the project

WHAT, WHO, WHEN, HOW ?– Structure and plannify and guide the project

16

Project Management

– Functional management

– Institution management

Human Factors

Tools and technics

17

Managing the project…

Initial State

Final State

Dreamed state

Ideal Path

Followed path

18

In order to avoid

Initial state Final state

Dreamed stated

Designed path

Followed path

19

Project structure… & follow up

20

Outline


• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up

• Bonus Slides

21

Project steering comity / final eval

• Steering comity – 5’ review per project & session– One review per project– Strenghts and weakness, blocking point

• Final eval– Presentation 20’ + 10’ questions & product presentation– Prof ranking– Peer ranking

Grid / 200 pts Nom : Prénom : Team

Time (/20) Outline (/20)is it clear?(/20)

Personal attitude (/20)

Appropriate ?(/20)

Understandable ? (/20)

Final result(/20)Team

Presentation (/80)

Project management (/40)

Support (/60)

Grid / 200 pts Nom : Prénom : Team

Time (/20) Outline (/20) Total (/200)Project management (/40)Answers (/20)

22

Outline



• Bonus Slides

23

Project structure

• Several structures:– Temporal structure : phases

• Industrial projects• Information system projects

– Operational structure : activities• Businesses involved• Suppliers

– Organisational structure• Project leader (project manager ?), project director,

sponsor(s), project team

24

Why a temporal structure

• Underline critical activities

• Better focus on qualifications during each phase

• Measure and insure quality of each phase

• Better project overview

• Step by step plannification & follow up

25

Each phase has to …

• Have precise inputs

• Have a final end

• Have explicit and acceptable goals

• Identify available ressources

• Must be plannified separately

26

Example of a project phase

• 1- Enterprise discussion about research opportunities (R&D Project)

• 2- Draft contract• 3- R phase (more exploratory)• 4- D Phase (more centered on indutrial

development)• 5- Thesis write & presentation

27

« Product Project »decomposition

Gestion de projet, Ed WEKA

28

Project phase and uncertainty

Thesis ≠ Building a wall !

In one side: well defined activities and phases

In the other side: not structured activities,

prospective project.

29

Project phasing

• Several approaches– Cascading management– In V– In spiral

30

Cascade cycle

Requirement engineering

Requirement book

System design

Building blocs

Modules integration

System validation

Payment

31

V Cycle

System requirement engineering

Requirement book

System design

Building blocs

Module intergration

System validation

Payment

32

Spiral Cycle

Risk analyhsisRequirement and plannnification

DevelopmentCustomer evaluation

Requirment book

Customer satisfaction

Initial requirements

Requirements revision

Initial risk analysis

Tests

Initial prototype

prototype

Final system

Risk analysis revision

33

Contracting Owner

Project Management

Sub Contractor 0

Supplier 0-1 Supplier 0-2

Supplier 1 Supplier2

Project organization ?

Supplier 2-1

Maîtrise d’ouvrage (fr)

Maîtrise d’œuvre (fr)

partenaire

fournisseur

34

Contracting Owner

• High level requirements & needs definitions

• Finance

• Choose the project manager

• Agreement on strategic choices and milestone validation

• Strategic choices

35

Project Management

• Requirement Engineering & General design

• Action plan Management

• Work management & coordination

• Cost control & evolutions

• Review with Contracting owner

36

Several actors (repetition S3)

• Contracting ower– Customer

• Project Manager– Project direction– Project Manager / leader– Project Team

• Suppliers

• Project Board– Board Contracting Owner & PM– Project Leader

37

Outline



• Bonus Slides

38

Project and organizations

• Functional organization • Orgnization by Processus (ISO/ QS…)• Matricial organization

– Functions X processus– Function X Project– Processus X Project

• Project Based organization

The project is a tool for change management: a « cubic » organization:

Function x Processus x Project

39

Project structure

• Why is it necessary to structure ?• Problems of complex project

– During the project design• Identify the purpose of the project• Identify its development• Prepare an adapted organization

– During the project operations• Establish and follow the project plan (cost –quality- deadlines)

40

Goals

• Project structure :– Is a shared referential– Allows an analytical analysis of the project

(prevision & realization)– Introduces a shared integrated codification

@ the enterprise ERP

41

Structure project answers…the breakdown structures

• What ? product: PBS

• What to do ? action: WBS

• Who is responsible of what ? responsability: OBS

• Who do ? With What ressource: RBS

• What is the cost ? cost: CBS

42

OBS

Project organization

43

Several actors

• Contracting ower– Customer

• Project Manager– Project direction– Project Manager / leader– Project Team

• Suppliers

• Project Board– Board Contracting Owner & PM– Project Leader

44

Organization

Direction Steering ComityDirection Steering Comity

Project Steering ComityProject Steering Comity

Technical TeamTechnical Team

Project ManagementProject Management

Month/BiMonth.

Week/Month

Day/Week

Project Team

Cont.

u

10u

100u

Continuous/Day

45

A member is

• A key person !

• Role

• Skills and abilities

46

The project member: an key operating link

Project Manager

Project MemberProject Member

Quality constraints

To adapt to project methods

Cost Constraints

Interface with others group members

Delay constraints

47

Role of project member

Participate at project meeting

Project memberProject member

Follows his/her planning

Animate project methods by using them

Be focused on quality concerns

Share information with other project members & collaborate

Achieve its budget objective

48

Abilities of project member:HR profile

• To know how to effect a constraint task (cost, quality, delay) => need to cope with pression and stress

• Able to evolve in a coordinated environment

• Keen to Team Working

49

Project Manager

• An interface actor

• Role

• Ability and skills

• Constraints

50

The project manager is a interface actor

Project Team

Project

Manager

Project

Manager

Services

Customer

Functional Board

Chief executive staff

Quality Structure

Board of direction

Other Teams

51

Role of the Project Manager

Find sponsors in the organization

To be efficient

Study and understand

requirements and satistfy the customer

Plan and express

achievable goals

LET DO by the team, Improve

ressource employment

Drive and control the

progression

Project ManagerProject

Manager

52

Role of project manager

• Be creative and Charismatic during the 1st phase

• Be respectfull of the plan

• Honnest & review rapidly at the end[Midler]

53

Skills and abilities of a project manager

• Master methodologies

• Knowledge of technics involved during the project

• Understanding and create an adhesion atmosphere in the team

54

Project Manager constraints

Standards

Political

Technologies Environment

Limited ressources

Project ManagerProject

ManagerEconomic

aspect

55

The project Director (if necessary)

Find internal sponsor

Is involved during crisis situation

Agree project strategic directions

Follow several projects and advice each of

them

Project DirectorProject Director

Help for financial aspects

Hire the project manager / leader. Gives his authority

56

The project board

Finance

Release blocked situations

Valide strategic orientations

Strategic view of projects

Project Board

Project Board

Involved in strategic decisions and

operation reviews

Valid milestones

57

PBSProduct BreakDown Structure

58

• A descriptive arborescence of the product

1. level 1 : system2. level 2 : subsystem3. level 3 : Submodule4. level 4 : components5. …

• The PBS is a configuration and documentation management support

PBS- Product BreakDown Structure

59

Exemple

Système Rafale

Logistique Avion Armement

Carlingue Ailes Motorisation Navigation Pilotage Trains

Rafale air craftSystem

Logistic Plane Arming

Cockpit Wings Motoring Navigation Steering Gear

60

WBSWork BreakDown Structure

61

Definition

• WBS : The project skeleton– Project structure – Operational activities definition– Cost follow up– Deadlines Definitions & Reviews– Risk Management– Operation management

62

The WBS allows to

– Define precisely each delivrables

– Precise definition of each action

– Deep understanding of each member intervention

– Agreement and recognition of every involved (and / or) impacted services

63

WBS concepts

– A structured decomposition of the project– Create every task and subtask necessary for

goals achievement– Each phase is fully decomposed without

temporal relations (for the moment)– The work requires to be

• Complete• Exhaustive• Coherent

64

How structuring the work

• Identify phases and major actions

• For each work lot, describe in a file each work unit

• Don’t forget non technical activities

65

PROJECT :PROJECT : ..................................................... N° W.O. :N° W.O. : ..................... EDITION FROM : EDITION FROM : ..............................RESPONSIBLE :RESPONSIBLE : .................................... LABEL : LABEL : .............................................................................. DESCRIPTION :DESCRIPTION : ...........................................................................................................................................

BEGINING DATEBEGINING DATE :: ................... FINAL DATE FINAL DATE :: .................... DURATION :DURATION : ......................

MILESTONES :MILESTONES : ...........................................................................................................

WORK ALLOCATION: :WORK ALLOCATION: : ............................................... BUDGET :BUDGET : ....................................................

VV

I I Project Manager :Project Manager : ..................Local Manager:Local Manager: ........................ Task Resp. :Task Resp. : ........................SS

A A Date :Date : ....................................... Date :Date : ....................................... Date :Date : .....................................SS

MAIN ACTIVITIES : MAIN ACTIVITIES : ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... INPUT INPUT (material, doc,...)(material, doc,...) : : .......................................................................................................

OUTPUT OUTPUT (fournitures, doc,...)(fournitures, doc,...) : :....................................................................................................

EXCLUDED TASK :EXCLUDED TASK : ..................................................................................................................................

A task file

66

Component of a WBS

• Project• Sub-project• Phase• Work Batch• Task• Milestone• Delivrable

67

A task

• Has a beginning and an end

• Consume ressources, which cost and are in limited quantity

• Is linked at other tasks by an anteriority (or precedence) relation (choose one)

68

Milestone

• Review or decision task– Is modelled by :

• Has no duration (even if in reality has one)• Do not consume ressources (facing the project

ressource consumption)• Is typed :

– A contractual milestone = Payment– Technical Milestone = intermediate event– Interface Milestone = intermediate event when all

project’s actors meet

69

Finally the WBS is

• A Top down and Bottom up tool

• Must not be frozen => need revision during the project.

70

Unit « building » principles

• Aggregation criterias– Same project phase– Same Speciality– Same responsability– Same Market

• Decomposition Criterias– Functional– Product– Activity typology– Business type– Geography

71

Work description

• Each work lot have to be separated from others

• Interfaced with others• Compatible with enterprise organization• Describe completely

– Input– ouput

• With an unique responsible• With limited size, cost, duration and work

load.

72

Decomposition main issue

Find the balance between

• A too wide mesh

• A too small mesh

73

Projet info :Logiciel version 2.0

Managementprojet

Spécificationproduit

Conceptiondétaillée

Planification

Réunions

Gestion

Logiciel

Manuel d’utilisateur

Documents de formation

Logiciel



Réalisation

Logiciel



Intégrationet tests

Logiciel



Projet info :Logiciel version 2.0

Managementprojet

Spécificationproduit

Conceptiondétaillée

Planification

Réunions

Gestion

Logiciel



Logiciel



Réalisation

Logiciel



Intégrationet tests

Logiciel



Example 1 (in french)

74

Exemple 2 (in french)

Système Rafale



Spécification

Conception

Fabrication

Assemblage

Système Rafale



Spécification

Conception

Fabrication

Assemblage

75

PBS and WBS linkage

Project

Subproject

System

subsystem

Task

PBS

WBSPhase

Work BatchCOHERENCY:

→Tasks must realize subsystem←Subsystem must be built by tasks

76

Need

System

Sub System

Product

Task

Involved agency

Steering comity

Office

Team

People

Flux

PBS-WBS / OBS

77

Flux

PBS-WBS / OBS – a « big » project

Need

System

Sub System

Product

Task

78

Flux

PBS-WBS / OBS – a « small » project

Involved agency

Steering comity

Office

Team

People

79

Outline



• Bonus Slides

80

Planning

• A project is constraint by:– A beginning date– An End Date (Due Date) – Deadlines & delivrables

• The planning is the art of prevision and follw-up of project’s operational goals: time, cost, quality…

81

Project Planning

• A 10 Steps planning method1. Analyse the project2. Identify tasks3. Identify tasks linkage4. Plot the task network5. Evaluate each task duration6. Calculate dates7. Calculate Margins – PERT8. Adjust time constraints9. Draw GANTT10.Allocate ressources

82

Main issue

• The art of project manager is– Measure, Decide and Act so as reaching goals

despite of contingency – New planning – planning update

Planning(Idea of the reality)

Real realization

83

Level of planning

Steering comity road map (Milestones)

Macro planning – Batch of WorkWork BreakDown Structure

Task & ActivitesTime planning

Task & OperationsWorkload planning

Due dates

Chaining constraints

84

Project

FurnitureStudies ToolingFacility layout

1- Analyze the project

Acceptance

Machining

Supplies

Assembly Supplies

Machining substruct

ure

Machining installatio

n

Assembly substruct

ure

Assembly installatio

n

Acceptance tests

Layout Studies

Ganty crane

installation

85

Project

FurnitureStudies ToolingFacility layout

1- Analyze the project

Acceptance

AMachinin

g Supplies

BAssembly Supplies

DMachining substruct

ure

EMachining installatio

n

FAssembly substruct

ure

GAssembly installatio

n

IAcceptanc

e tests

CLayout Studies

HGanty crane

installation

86

N° Label

Deb Start

A Purchase & receipt of machining tools

B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool

C Study the facility layout

D Execute the facility layout for machining

E Install machining tools

F Execute the facility layout for assembly

G install assembly tools

H Install the gantry crane

I Perform acceptance tests

Fin End

Identify tasks

87

Deb Start NIL

A Purchase & receipt of machining tools Deb

B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool Deb

C Study the facility layout Deb

D Execute the facility layout for machiningC

E Install machining tools A,D

F Execute the facility layout for assembly C

G install assembly tools B,F

H Install the gantry crane C

I Perform acceptance tests E,G,H

Fin End I

N° Label Anterior

tasks

Identify tasks

88

A

D

C

B

F

E

H

G

I

0

Start End

4- Drawn the network

89

Rank calculus

• Problème : which order to choose ?

Start En dtask

1

task3

task2

Task 4

Task 5

90

Rank calculus

• Tâches Antécédents Durée Tâches Antécédents Durée

A / 3 G E-F 9

B A 1 H / 5

C A 5 I H 8

D B 6 J H 2

E B 4 K I 3

F C-I-D 2 L K-J 7

Task

Preceding tasks

Number of cross =

Nomber of preceding

tasks

91

Draw the network

• Then (follow eg §91)

A

H

B

C

I

J

D

E

K

F

L

G

92

Deb Start / 0

A Purchase & receipt of machining tools Deb 7

B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool Deb 3

C Study the facility layout Deb 5

D Execute the facility layout for machining C 5

E Install machining tools A,D 5

F Execute the facility layout for assembly C 3

G Install assembly tools B,F 3

H Install the gantry crane C 7

I Perform acceptance tests E,G,H 1

Fin End I 0

N° Label Anterior Duration

tasks

5-Estimate duration

93

To estimate duration

• Personal experience• Ask experts

(Employ a significative & homogen time unit)

94

A

D

C

B

F

E

H

G

I

0

7 5

5

3

5

3

7

3

1

ESDEarliest Start Date EED

Earliest End Date

LEDLatest End DateLSD

Latest Start Date

DurationStart End

6- Calculate dates

95

7- Margin calculus

• Free margin– Duration From which a task can be delayed or

relaxed without affecting another task of the project

• Total margin– Duration from which a task can be relaxed or

delayed without affecting the end of the entire project.

96

Critical path & tasks

• Critical path– Every path which goes from the begining to

the end of the project with the longuest duration.

– Its lenght will define the duration minimum of the project

• Critical path– A task with margin = 0

97

A

D

C

B

F

E

H

G

I

0

7 5

5

3

5

3

7

3

1

0

0

0

7

5

3

5 10

5 8

10 15

5 12

8 11

15 16

16 16

1615

1510

158

1512

105

129

103

50

0

129

0

0

0

0

33

33

44

4499

Calculate margins

98

PERT Algorithm (in french)

Algorithme du chemin critique

Données : Digraphe G = (V, E), sans circuits, des activités avec leur durée dik. Résultat :

i début au plus tôt des activités correspondant aux arcs (i, k) partant de i,

i fin au plus tard des activités correspondant aux arcs (k, i) arrivant à i,

durée du chemin critique.

Début I . Calcul des dates de début au plus tôt (récurrence en avançant dans le projet)

1 := 0

Pour k := 2 à n faire k := max{j + djk | j P(k)} I I . Calcul des dates de fin au plus tard (récurrence en reculant dans le projet)

n := n

Pour k := n-1 à 1 faire k := min{j - dkj | j S(k)} Fin.

Notations: P(i) = {k V | (k, i) E}: c'est l'ensemble des sommets prédécesseurs de i. S(i) = {k V | (i, k) E}: c'est l'ensemble des sommets successeurs de i.

99

8- Adjust durations & constraints

• Analyse constraints • Review (negociate) goals• Analyse taks (redefine)• Review the technical solution ?• Externalize ?• Increase the ressources number?

100

Week 1 Week 2

M MT TT TW WF F

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

9- Draw Gantt diagram

101

Arrowed Gantt

• Graphical & temporal acitivity sucession

Time (in days)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

T A

T B

T C

102

Tasks chaining logics

End – Start Relation (ES)

Precedent

Next

End-End Relation (EE)

precedent

Next

Start – Start Relation (SS)

Precedent

Next

103

Tasks chaining logics

Precedent

Next+d

precedent

Next

+d

precendent

Next+d

End – Start Relation (ES) End-End Relation (EE)

Start – Start Relation (SS)

104

Un exemple ML-MT

17 w

5 w

5 w

7 w

Total margin

Free Margin

7 w

2 w

5 w

5 w

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4

Task 5 (end milestone)

105

10- Ressources allocations

• Definition– Human, material, energetic, informational,

geographic or temporal means allocation for a task operation

106

Ressources allocation

• Elaborate an allocation table

• Estimate ressources required

• Allocate ressources

107

Ressources allocation

• THe charge planning is establish considering ressources availbility

• If overload are discovered, the project manager must deploy corrective actions:– Grading (Slip the end of the project) – Smoothind (reorganize so as the end of date)– Restructure the project

108

Loads

Loads = duration * mobilization rate

109

t

load

Ressources raised

Ressources availableRessources in ‘idle mode’

Load plan

Undercapacity

Max

110

Project planning

Set of tools and methods for creating

– Indicators

– Operational Balanced Scorecard

For managing the project

111

Indicators

• Measure a phenomenon

• They have to be :– Easy to understand and appropriated– Usefull

• Two type of indicators– Results– Process

• Examples ?

112

Balance score card

• Management tool

• Underline the past performance

• Give information about futur steps

• Strong and Weak Points

• Gap analysis toward targets

• Each gap need an action plan

• Designed during the project first phase

113

The quality of a BSC:

• It is focused = Design for customers

• It is usefull = Fullfill requirements

• It is reliable = regulary reviewed

• It help for the action plan = concrete

• It is complete = Is operational Q, C, D

• It is understandable = visual

Manage with BSC

114

Outline



• Bonus Slides

115

Définitions

• Do we master indicators ?• Can we measure ?• Do we have control limits• How mastering OOC?• How is the indicator distribution ? (normal, bi modal…)• Which are Cp - Cpk of are key indicators ? (do we master

them)• Audit: Key parameters to an analyse

– Indicators vs relevance – Deployement of a systematic indicator review and gap analysis– Follow-up of indicator in team problem solving– How is the management with indicators

116

Outline



• Bonus Slides

117

Risks and projects

Some definitions: • Potentiality that a project doesn’t follow its

plan.

• Virutal Gaps, unacceptable regarding goal

• NO projects without risks

118

Risks and projects

Definition in this lesson:

A risk is the triptych:– Unwanted event– Frequency– Gravity

119

Risks and project

• The fundation of risk analysis: the context of the analysis

Context

Fearsome event

RISK

•Fearsome event

•Frequency

•Gravity

120

Risk and projects

Risks caracteristics– Nature of the risks

• financial, human, Law, Commercial, technical

– Risk origin• Customer, Supplier, subcontractor, internal

– Consequences,– Detectability– Gravity

• From no consequence to disaster

– Probabiliy of occurence• Quantitative ? Qualitative (rare, improbable, most likely,

common)

121

Risks Management

• Why implement a risk management?

− Prevent Malfunction

− Prevent firefighting during the project

− In other words

− Contribute to a RELEVANT definition of operational goals (cost, due dates, required perf)

− Having robust goals regarding disturbing events

Risks and projects

122

Risks management

• Constitute a « crisis » group or Problem Solving Team

• For the management: employ KNOWLEDGEABLE & reliable people

Risks and projects

123

Risks and projects

1. Risk identification

2. Risk ranking

3. Risks classification

4. Risk « curring » : mitigation

5. Follow-up and control of risks

6. Capitalization and risks update

Risks ANALYSISANALYSIS process - Dysfunctional analysis

Risk MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT Process

Management of risks during a project / 6 STEPS

124

Risks and projects

1. Risk identification• Individual or team analysis => listing of

every potential impacting element:– Have a look at a previous projects’ post

mortem analyses, project databases– Review a risk checklist– Look at a risk database in the organization– Ask experts involved in previous projects– …

125

Risks and projects

1. Risk identification• Tools for the explicitation:

– FMEA

– Failure/Fault Tree Analysis

– Causes Tree

– Bow Ties

126

Risks and projects

2. Risks ranking• Affect, for each risk, a value:

– Gravity, Occurrence probability, Probability of non detection

FMEA formalism => RPN = Sev * Occ * Det

127

Risks and projects

3. Risk classification• Each risk, identified and estimated, must be

classified and prioritized regarding other risks

• The project management evaluate each risk, determine if it is acceptable or not depending on PRECISE rules, given by the project steering commity

128

3. Risk classification

Levels of riskProbability can bve replace (in often case) by a

qualitative estimation very weak 1 weak 2 median 3 high 4 very high 5

• The criticality is the product: occurance probability * impact

C = I x P

Risks and project

129

PROBABILITy

IMPACT1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

II

I

IVIII

III

Risks and project

Area I : Acceptable risks

Area II : disturbing risks

Area IV : unacceptable risks

Area III : risks to treat

Mitigation path

4. Risk mitigation

130

Risks and projects

4. Risk mitigation• The declination=>Decline the project

• The cure=> Suppress the root cause of the risk

– Are solution appropriate?– Are goals & constraints negociable?

• The mitigation=> Diminution of the probability of occurrence &/or impact

131

Risks and projects

4. Risks Mitigation• The countermeasure

– Accept the risk and take technical, communicational, organizational, insurances

• Preventative actions; decrease its occurrence probability• Emergency measures: If the event occurs, prevent the

propagation of the impact

• The transfer– Which is the best organization for the risk?

• Internal services• Subcontractor?• Customer?

132

Risks and projects

5. Risks control and follow-up• Action plan

− Evaluation of final impact of actions− Tracability of action: ACTION PLAN:

• Responsible• When• The forecast risk rank after treatment

133

Risks and projects

6. Risks & actions capitalization− A documentary system

• Trace of event & action plan• One risk catalog

• Help the identification of risks for new projects• Standardize risk management

• Constitue risks check-lists• Store debriefing analyses

134

Outline



• Bonus Slides

135

The Cost control

• Ressource planning

• Cost forecast

• Budgeting

• Cost control

136

The cost control

• To have a target– The Budget at date

• Compare its position– The previsional cost

• Obtain bySum of what has been guaranty & done (done or in the pipe)+Sum of what is still required (to be payed)

• GAP analysis– Gap, drift, trends

• Taking in account– Project modifications & inflation

137

Technical provisions

• Technical provision are used to cover technical risks due to :– Lack of knowledge during cost

estimation

– Project plan review• skeleton review• Planning review

• Often * 2 !

138

Initial Budget

• Task organization must be coherent with budget line

• Each subensembly is decomposed of budget line & technical provision

• The sum of all budget line (for all submodule)correspond to the technical cost of the project. There is also the gross margin– General provision for the project– Overhead charges– Profit margin

139

Budget Initial

Budget line

Budget line

Budget line

Sub module Sub module Sub module Sub module

•General provision for the project•Overhead charges•Profit margin

Initial BUDGET

Gross Margin

140

BCWP Curve

• The BCWP Curve (CBTP in French)– Budgeted Cost of Work Planned BCWP

• Official, reference curve which translate previsional cumulated cost respecting the project planning

Cost

Time

BCWP

141

The BDWD curve

• The BCWD curve (CBTE in french)– Budgeted Cost of the Work Done – Earned Value

• Translate the evolution of real evolution of budgeted cost for executed works at a particular date

A curve depending of the planning & the work progress.

Cost

Aquired, planned

value

BCWPPlanning delay

BDWD Time

Delay

142

Planning Gap

Relative Planning Gap :

Gap Planning= Incur budget

BCWP – BDWD= BCWP

143

The RCWD

• The RCWD Curve ( CRTE in French)– Real cost of Work Done

• At a particular date, is the cumulated curve of what has been really spend

A curve depending of the planning & the work progress.

Cost

Aquired, planned

value

BCWP

Planning delay

BDWD Time

Delay

Real cost

RCWD

Project Control variance

144

Cost Gap

Performance gap

= BCWP - RCWD

If < 0 More expensive than plannedIf > 0 Less expensive than planned

Cost Variation :

Cost Gap BCWP – RCWS= = BCWP BCWP

145

Measures analysis (date review)

• Cost realized < Planned cost Not necessarly a good sign

• Cost realized > Planned cost not necessarly a bad sign

• Need a new measure : – Work Done (Physical status)

146

Measure of work

• Planned workload

• Used Planned Workload

• Real Workload employed

147

Management with delivrable

Real date

Planned dates(or workload)

Delivrable 1

Rencontre des prévisionsavec la réalité

Delivrable 2

D1 delayed

Date of CR review

148

Management tool

Real dates

Planned charges

Ideal project; date real = date planned

Pb discovered late in the planning

Earlier pb analysis

Chronical drift of the project

149

Status meeting

• Gap ANALYSIS − Difficulties to plan

• Planning = intellectual effort• No standard for duration evaluation

− Ressources• Ressource availability• Several qualifications• Learning time• Ressources are focused on their favorite activities

− Modifications• From the customer• Product improvement

− Failures

150

Outline



• Bonus Slides

151

• WhoWho– The project team

• DurationDuration– 1 Hour

• WhenWhen– Regularly and repetitive

• WhatWhat– Based on FACTs

• FormatFormat– Status Report

• TrackingTracking– Balance Score Card

Meeting Point

152

Follow-up goals

• Help the project manager to take the right decision, so that goals could be achieved the closest possible to the planning.

• Mean: the information system

153

Graphical tools

• Milestones planning– Status for each milestons

Late

Real Timet1 t2 t3 t4

2

2

1

1

In time

In avance

t0

Δt= Realized - planned

154

Graphical tools for the follow-up

• Milestone follow-up– Extension for all milestones

t + (Δt= time realized – planned time)

Real timet0 t1 t2 t3 t4t0

M 2

t1

t2

t3advance

late

M 1 Passed milestone

155

Status

• Time Status

• Workload Status

• Physical Status

156

Status Follow-up

3

9 10 11 12 13 1487654321 9 10 11 12 13 1487654321

t0t0 + 5

4

9

6

4 4

8

5Case 1

5Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

Total Lenght = Real lenght + rest lenghtTime status (%) = Real lenght / Overall lenght

157

Suivis : example

• Insert 1000 post along a road– Forcasting lenght : 100 days– Mean : 10 men

• Follow-up:– Meeting 1 : t0+10d

• 100 post inserted, Ressource employed : 100 days

– Meeting 2 : t0+20d• 50 post removed & reinsert• 50 insert• 10 people more have been affected

158

1- Declared status

2- Calculated statuds

4- Milestones status

5- Percentage statuts

3- Recognized status

Cost forecast

10060

Cost forecast

Stay to be spend

10060 60

10% 40% 60% 100%

60 %

60 %

50 %

40 %

100 % 0 % 0 %

Done 20 objetcsStill to do 30 objects

40 %

Status measures

159

0

10

50

95

100

30

80

Send consultation

Supplier choice

Order slip

Expediting at reception

Final customer expedition

Billing

Physical status

Milestones

Tentative requirements book

Final requirementbook

Benchmark

Delivery slip

Receipt

Example of an order

Follow the status

160

Physical follow-up - Month 0 to 3

Month event Physical Hours H. dep. / H Tot R.A.F. status Spend Phy. advan planned

0 - 0% 0 - 200 200

1 Envoi des consultations 10% 25 250 200 175

2 Choix du fournisseur 30% 72 240 200 128

3 Emission de la commande 50% 122 244 240 118

Order example

Status follow-up

161

Operational procedures

• Regular review (weekly, monthly, quaterly…)

• Data loading– By activity– By ressources

162

Data collection

• Informal manner– Status meeting– Interviews

• Structured manner– Elapsed time spread sheet – systematically

filled– Directly in a tool

163

Merci pour votre attention

Thank you for your audience

164

Of quality in lessons…

165

A little participation

Votre impression

Points positifs Lesson on: www.g-scop.fr\~bassetts

Points d’amélioration

166

Summary – Project Management

• Several project type• A management idea: W5H2• « Dicton » (Failing to, plan is planning to fail)

– PWS / WBS / OBS / CBS / RBS

• Uncertainty management => Risks analysis

• Project management: temporal review of a project, gap analysis, a REGULAR REVISION

167

Subject N°1: GAZPRAM & EXXOUN

• In a global shrinking market place of fossil energy, GAZPRAM & EXXOUN joined their efforts for new prospection and development actions. This new alliance, named G&E produced a first collaboration project:the implemantation of the SIN pipline : from Singapore to Nepal through the state of Myanmar.

• Following with interest your abilities about project management, the Human Ressources Direction of G&E has decided to promote you as Project Manager of this ambitious project.

• You have to do the feseability study of this project in putting a strong emphasis on a meticulus risks analysis.

• Your goal is to present to the sterring comity of G&E the validity of this project. From your results, the alliance can be renegociated.

168

Subject N°2: HILTSTARS Resorts & Travel Agencies

• Following its development strategy, in accordance with Dalaï Lama, Chinese government plan to develop touristic aspects of LHASA. «LHASA will become the kingdom of meditation and skying». The high altitude will insure a confortable level of snow and secure this lucrative activity. In order to supply the lack of hostels infrastructure at an international level, Chineese government had launched a worldwide contract offer of 1B$ for the construction of a 6 buildings, 1500 beds each from 4 to 6 stars quality. The HILTSARS Compangy has won the competition. « HILTSTARS resorts & Spa» are a well reknowned brand of luxe and quality. It have been choosen for their knowledge about holidays an luxe facilities.

• Following your remarked ability in team and project management, the HR direction of HILSTARS will entrust you to this ambitious project.

• Your participation will start by the preliminary study of this project. You will be responsible of the general planning for the entire facility layout.

• Your goal is to present to HILSTARS steering comity your forcast planning & the smoothing associated.

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Subject 3: National lotery & the kitchen

• You are a lucky guy/women! You won to the national lotery ! It is not the first price, however, you have enough money to buy you a flat in South of France. You can realize finally your dream. Your own loft is a 820ft^2 to renovate entirely.

• Hopefully, you are a « do-it yourself » person and you plan to start with the kitchen. Several layout works need to be planned : gaz, painting, walls…

• Aware of the good job, you want to do a good job and preserve your nest egg. You decide to plan, buy and install a kitchen from IKEO. They did a super software of cost estimation and kitchen planning.

• Now it’s your turn to play

170

Subject 3: Practice Lesson – Lean manufacturing with LEGO

• You have to imagine a pratical lesson of lean manufacturing.– 8 pers. 1 project leader

171

Subject 5: Building a oenologic program

• You have to imagine a pratical lesson of oenology.– 8 pers. 1 project leader

172

Subject 6: sensibilisation of about risk management

• You have to imagine a advertising message to sensibilize to middle and small managers to operational risk management– 8 pers. 1 project leader

173

Subject 7: World roots travel

• You have to imagine a travel around India and Nepal.– 8 pers. 1 project leader