1

Overview of Predictions/Monitoring of 2004 Hurricanes

A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)NOAA Assistant Administrator for

Weather ServicesMarch 22, 2005

2

Outline

• Purpose

• Issues

• Presentation of Briefing

3

Purpose

• Present an information briefing on the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season and discuss successes and opportunities for improvement

4

Issues

Opportunities for Improvement

• Improving Intensity Forecasts

• Communicating Uncertainty

• Multi-model Ensembles

(AKA super-ensembles)

5

2004 Hurricane Season Summary

• NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook issued in May called for 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes.

• Final season tally: 15 named tropical or subtropical storms with 9 hurricanes including 6 major hurricanes.

• $45B in damages and 60 direct deaths in the U.S.

6

2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season

7

2004 HighlightsFlorida Hurricanes

CharleyCharley FrancesFrances

IvanIvan JeanneJeanne

8

2004 HighlightsInland Flooding from Hurricanes

9

NHC Official Track Error Trend – Atlantic Basin

10

President Bush Visit September 2004

11

Hurricane Supplemental – Funding Summary

OR&F $ in thousands Line Office Comments

Marine Buoys $1,800k NWS Install 7 New Marine Buoys in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean

Research and Model Improvements

$2,000k NWS, OAR, NESDIS

$1,000 to NWS for Hurricane WRF, $300k to NESDIS for EOS/POES Microwave Data, $700 to OAR Hurricane Intensity Research Per Spend Plan

Facility & Equipment Repairs

$1,200 NMFS, NOS, NWS

$328k for NOS, $344 to NMFS, $528 to NWS NWS funds include $325k for repair and replacement of weather equipment in Caribbean Nations

Habitat Restoration $2,900 NMFS Post storm assessments and restoration per the President’s Supplemental Request

Oyster Bed Restoration, Reseeding, Rehab

$9,000 NMFS Per Congressional Direction to provide $4,321 to Alabama, $1,700 to Florida, $1,545 to Mississippi, $1,421 to Louisiana

Sub-Total OR&F $16,900

PAC

Air Force Radiometer Data Processing

$300k OAR Stepped Frequency Radiometer evaluation and data processing at OAR/HRD, Equipment funded in Air Force Budget

GIV Upgrades $3,500k NMAO G-IV Upgrades as proposed in President’s Supplemental Request

Sub-Total $3,800k

Total $20,700

12

Opportunities for Improvement

• Super-ensembles can produce superior forecast guidance

– FSU Super-ensemble

– GFS

– GFDL

13

2004 Track Guidance

14

Opportunities for Improvement

• Intensity forecasts

• Charley is the example – fast intensification just before landfall

15

NHC Official Intensity Error Trend – Atlantic Basin

16

Opportunities for Improvement

• Communicating Uncertainty– “Tampa, Tampa, Tampa”

• 48-hour track error was 94 miles

• Scope, pace, historical/forecasts, uncertainty of track, warnings/watches, inland/coasts

17

Hurricane Charley

18

Wrap-Up

Great Team-NOAA

Performance!

19

NOAA Coordination & Views

• NOAA-wide effort to improve

20

Desired Outcomes

• Discuss Opportunities for Improvement– Improving Intensity Forecasts– Communicating Uncertainty– Multi-model Ensembles

21

Backup

22

2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS

NAME DATESMIN. PRESS

(MB)

MAX. WINDS (MPH)

DIRECTDEATHS (U.S.

& CARIBBEAN)

U.S. ESTIMATED DAMAGE ($ million)

H ALEX 31 JUL - 6 AUG 957 120 1 5

TS BONNIE 3 - 13 AUG 1001 65 3 minor

H CHARLEY 9 - 14 AUG 941 150 15 15000

H DANIELLE 13 - 21 AUG 964 110

TS EARL 13 - 16 AUG 1005 45

H FRANCES 25 AUG - 8 SEP 935 145 8 8900

H GASTON 27 AUG - 1 SEP 985 75 8 130

TS HERMINE 27 - 31 AUG 1002 60

H IVAN 2 - 24 SEP 910 165 92 14200

H JEANNE 13 - 28 SEP 950 120 3000+ 6900

H KARL 16 - 24 SEP 938 145

H LISA 19 SEP - 3 OCT 987 75

TS MATTHEW 8 - 10 OCT 997 45 minor

STS NICOLE 10 - 11 OCT 988 50

TS OTTO 29 NOV - 3 DEC 995 50