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MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
Maj Tom WoodsMaj Tom Woods
Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)
2
Discuss techniques and procedures for Discuss techniques and procedures for conducting an operational level mission conducting an operational level mission analysis for Coalition Task Force (CTF) analysis for Coalition Task Force (CTF) operations operations
First step of Commander’s First step of Commander’s Estimate processEstimate process
Operational level (includes Operational level (includes strategic military and politico-strategic military and politico-military objectives)military objectives)
PURPOSEPURPOSE
3
REFERENCESREFERENCES
JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint OperationsJP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations
JP 5-00.2 CTF Planning Guidance & JP 5-00.2 CTF Planning Guidance & ProceduresProcedures
CJCSM 3500.05 CTF HQ CJCSM 3500.05 CTF HQ Master Training Guide Master Training Guide
DCTFAC
HANDBOOK
DJTFAC HandbookDJTFAC Handbook
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VCOA Decision
VCOA Decision
IVCOA Comparison
IVCOA Comparison
IIICOA Analysis
IIICOA Analysis
IICOA Development
IICOA Development
IMission Analysis
IMission Analysis
Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process
Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process
WARNORDWARNORD EXORDEXORD
ISituation
Development
IICrisis
Assessment
IIICOA
Development
IVCOA
Selection
VExecutionPlanning
VI
Execution
MISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXTMISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXT
ALERTORDALERTORDand/orand/or
PLANORDPLANORD
5
MISSION ANALYSIS OBJECTIVESMISSION ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES
UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC AND UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL SITUATIONSOPERATIONAL SITUATIONS
UNDERSTAND SSC’S INTENT & CONCEPTUNDERSTAND SSC’S INTENT & CONCEPT
DEVELOP TASKSDEVELOP TASKS
DEVELOP CTF MISSION STATEMENTDEVELOP CTF MISSION STATEMENT
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MISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPSMISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPS
1.1. Determine known factsDetermine known facts 2.2. Develop assumptionsDevelop assumptions
3.3. Analyze CINC’s mission & intentAnalyze CINC’s mission & intent 4.4. Determine limitationsDetermine limitations 5.5. Determine COGs / Decisive PointsDetermine COGs / Decisive Points
6.6. Identify operational-level tasksIdentify operational-level tasks 7.7. Initial CTF force structure analysisInitial CTF force structure analysis 8.8. Initial risk assessmentInitial risk assessment
9.9. Determine military end stateDetermine military end state10.10. Develop mission statementDevelop mission statement
11.11. Prepare mission analysis brief Prepare mission analysis brief
7
C-4C-4StaffStaffC-4C-4StaffStaff
C-5C-5StaffStaffC-5C-5StaffStaff
C-6C-6StaffStaff
PAPAStaffStaffPAPAStaffStaff
SJASJAStaffStaffSJASJAStaffStaff
MedicalMedicalStaffStaff
MedicalMedicalStaffStaff
CTFCTFComponentsComponents
CTFCTFComponentsComponents
C-3C-3StaffStaffC-3C-3StaffStaff
C-2C-2StaffStaffC-2C-2StaffStaff
C-1C-1StaffStaffC-1C-1StaffStaff
C-3
Rep
sC
-3 R
eps
C-5 RepsC-5 Reps
C-6 Reps
C-6 Reps
C-4 Reps
C-4 Reps
PA
Reps
PA
Reps
SJA R
eps
SJA R
eps
Med Reps
Med Reps
LNOsLNOs
C-2 R
eps
C-2 R
epsC-1 Reps
C-1 Reps
OPTOPT
Deployment CellIO
Ce
ll IM C
ell
Orders Cell
CPGCPG
The PlayersThe Players
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1. DETERMINE FACTS1. DETERMINE FACTS
What does the Coalition Task Force (CTF) What does the Coalition Task Force (CTF) know about the current status and know about the current status and
conditions?conditions? Command and Control (C2) Intelligence Command and Control (C2) Intelligence
Support Element (ISE) in coordination with Support Element (ISE) in coordination with other staff sections, conducts Intelligence other staff sections, conducts Intelligence Preparation of Battlespace (IPB)Preparation of Battlespace (IPB)– Define battlespace environmentDefine battlespace environment– Describe the battlespace’s effectsDescribe the battlespace’s effects– Evaluate the threatEvaluate the threat
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1. DETERMINE FACTS1. DETERMINE FACTS
What does the CTF know about the current status and What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?conditions?
Coalition Planning Group (CPG) provides to the rest of the staff:Coalition Planning Group (CPG) provides to the rest of the staff:– Supported Strategic Commander’s (SSC’s) mission, intent, and Supported Strategic Commander’s (SSC’s) mission, intent, and
CONOPSCONOPS– Forces available, readiness status of CTF forcesForces available, readiness status of CTF forces– Review lift priority and lift allocationReview lift priority and lift allocation– Other forces available, organizations / multinationalOther forces available, organizations / multinational– Political situation (Host nation, friendly/foreign gov’t)Political situation (Host nation, friendly/foreign gov’t)– Time analysisTime analysis
Balance desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating Balance desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating time for component planningtime for component planning
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TIME ANALYSISTIME ANALYSIS
Develop a timeline to focus the staffDevelop a timeline to focus the staff
CTF Planning Process (Days / Weeks)CTF Planning Process (Days / Weeks)
C-DayC-Day D-DayD-Day
Mission Analysis (Hours)Mission Analysis (Hours)
SSC’sSSC’sW/OW/O
ReceivedReceived
TaskTaskAnalysisAnalysis
Assumptions,Assumptions,Risks,Risks,
LimitationsLimitations
RestatedRestatedMissionMission
MissionMissionAnalysisAnalysis
BriefBrief
Planning Events (Days / Hours)Planning Events (Days / Hours)
SSC’s SSC’s W/OW/O
ReceivedReceived
MissionMissionAnalysisAnalysis
BriefBrief
COACOADecisionDecision
BriefBrief
CDR’sCDR’sEstimateEstimate
BriefBrief
OPORDOPORDIssuedIssued
SSC’sSSC’sWarning/Order (W/O)Warning/Order (W/O)
IssuedIssued
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1. DETERMINE FACTS1. DETERMINE FACTS
What does the CTF know about the current What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?status and conditions?
CTF StaffCTF Staff– Contribute to IPB DevelopmentContribute to IPB Development– Provide staff input to CPGProvide staff input to CPG
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2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS
Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planningcontinue planning
Assumptions replace missing or unknown factsAssumptions replace missing or unknown facts Must be valid (logical, realistic) and necessary Must be valid (logical, realistic) and necessary
(essential for planning to continue)(essential for planning to continue) Don’t assume away enemy capabilitiesDon’t assume away enemy capabilities Must be reassessed continuallyMust be reassessed continually
Litmus TestLitmus Test: If an assumption proves false, the plan could be : If an assumption proves false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption.assumption.
Litmus TestLitmus Test: If an assumption proves false, the plan could be : If an assumption proves false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption.assumption.
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2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS
Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planningcontinue planning
CPG disseminates facts & assumptions, and should CPG disseminates facts & assumptions, and should considerconsider– Support from other government and civilian agenciesSupport from other government and civilian agencies– Availability of and support requirements for host nation or Availability of and support requirements for host nation or
multinational forcesmultinational forces– Projection of the end stateProjection of the end state– Available timeAvailable time– Political situation of countries proximate to COAPolitical situation of countries proximate to COA
CTF staff sections determine assumptions from their CTF staff sections determine assumptions from their analysis; provide input to CPG via their representativeanalysis; provide input to CPG via their representative
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3. ANALYZE SSC’s 3. ANALYZE SSC’s MISSION & INTENTMISSION & INTENT
Analyze Mission & Intent Analyze Mission & Intent understandingunderstanding all all information in the CINC’s planning directiveinformation in the CINC’s planning directive
Understand SSC’s mission (understand the WHY Understand SSC’s mission (understand the WHY of the mission)of the mission)
Understand CTF’s role in SSC’s intent and Understand CTF’s role in SSC’s intent and concept of operationsconcept of operations
Understand SSC’s plan for information Understand SSC’s plan for information operations / warfare (IO/IW)operations / warfare (IO/IW)
Need clarification? Ask Need clarification? Ask the SSC’s staff!the SSC’s staff!
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4. DETERMINE LIMITATIONS4. DETERMINE LIMITATIONS
Constraints, restraints and Constraints, restraints and other limitations on the CTFother limitations on the CTF
Restrictions placed on the CTFRestrictions placed on the CTF– Constraints: required actions (must do) that limit freedom of Constraints: required actions (must do) that limit freedom of
actionaction e.g., conduct air strikes with a specific period of timee.g., conduct air strikes with a specific period of time
– Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do)Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do) e.g., cannot pursue enemy across a certain bordere.g., cannot pursue enemy across a certain border
May be imposed by HHQ or by circumstancesMay be imposed by HHQ or by circumstances CTF staff sections determine limitations from their own CTF staff sections determine limitations from their own
perspective; provide to CPGperspective; provide to CPG CPG determines overall limitations and disseminates themCPG determines overall limitations and disseminates them
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5. DETERMINE CENTERS OF 5. DETERMINE CENTERS OF GRAVITY / DECISIVE POINTSGRAVITY / DECISIVE POINTS
Analyze both friendly, enemy COGs to determine strengths Analyze both friendly, enemy COGs to determine strengths and weaknessesand weaknesses
COGs are “those characteristics, capabilities, or COGs are “those characteristics, capabilities, or locations from which a military force derives its locations from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.” freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.”
-- JP 3-0-- JP 3-0
– Enemy COGs developed by CPG / C2Enemy COGs developed by CPG / C2
– Friendly COGs developed by CPGFriendly COGs developed by CPG
– COGs at Strategic, Operational, Tactical levelsCOGs at Strategic, Operational, Tactical levels
– Decisive Points usually “geographic in nature Decisive Points usually “geographic in nature . . . and are the keys to attacking protected COGs.”. . . and are the keys to attacking protected COGs.”
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6. IDENTIFY OPERATIONAL 6. IDENTIFY OPERATIONAL LEVEL TASKSLEVEL TASKS
Identify tasks in terms of Identify tasks in terms of Specified, Implied, and Essential TasksSpecified, Implied, and Essential Tasks
List specified tasksList specified tasks– Stated in SSC’s order, usually paras 2 & 3Stated in SSC’s order, usually paras 2 & 3
Develop implied tasksDevelop implied tasks– Not specifically assigned, but must be accomplishedNot specifically assigned, but must be accomplished
Determine essential tasksDetermine essential tasks– Those tasks which define successThose tasks which define success
CTF staff sections determine tasks and provide input to CTF staff sections determine tasks and provide input to CPGCPG
CPG determines overall tasks and disseminatesCPG determines overall tasks and disseminates
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TasksTasks
SpecifiedSpecified
ImpliedImplied
EssentialEssential
(1) Conduct needs assessment(1) Conduct needs assessment(2) Deploy forces(2) Deploy forces(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation
(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs(2) Provide force protection(2) Provide force protection
(1) Deploy forces(1) Deploy forces(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(3) Provide force protection(3) Provide force protection
TASK ANALYSIS WORKSHEET TASK ANALYSIS WORKSHEET
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xx
xx
xx
xxxx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
TASK Army Navy AF Marines SOFTASK Army Navy AF Marines SOF
1. Initial Assessment1. Initial Assessment
2. Coordinate w/ NGOs2. Coordinate w/ NGOs
3. Port security3. Port security
4. Provide security for camps4. Provide security for camps5. Provide temporary shelter5. Provide temporary shelter
6. Provide ground transport6. Provide ground transport
7. Distribute food & water7. Distribute food & water
8. Provide air traffic control8. Provide air traffic control
All specified and implied All specified and implied tasks should be assigned to tasks should be assigned to
a CTF organizationa CTF organization
TASK ASSIGNMENT MATRIX TASK ASSIGNMENT MATRIX
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7. INITIAL CTF FORCE 7. INITIAL CTF FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSISSTRUCTURE ANALYSIS
What has the SSC provided? Are theyWhat has the SSC provided? Are theysufficient to accomplish essential tasks?sufficient to accomplish essential tasks?
Review forces provided by SSC for planningReview forces provided by SSC for planning– LocationsLocations– Status of reserve forces and time they’re availableStatus of reserve forces and time they’re available
Determine broad force structure and Determine broad force structure and capabilities necessary to accomplish taskscapabilities necessary to accomplish tasks– Component LNOs / planners crucial hereComponent LNOs / planners crucial here
Identify shortfallsIdentify shortfalls
More specific force requirements will be determined More specific force requirements will be determined after COA Development & COA Analysisafter COA Development & COA Analysis
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8. INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT8. INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT
What are the mission accomplishment What are the mission accomplishment and force protection risks?and force protection risks?
May be risks associated withMay be risks associated with– Mission (risks the SSC/CCTF is willing to take in order to Mission (risks the SSC/CCTF is willing to take in order to
accomplish mission)accomplish mission)– Force Protection (e.g., casualties, fratricide, terrorist threat)Force Protection (e.g., casualties, fratricide, terrorist threat)– Time available as provided by SSC’s limitationsTime available as provided by SSC’s limitations
SSC’s risk tolerance might be stated or impliedSSC’s risk tolerance might be stated or implied CTF staff sections determine risks from their perspective; CTF staff sections determine risks from their perspective;
provide to CPGprovide to CPG CPG determines overall risks, considers mitigation CPG determines overall risks, considers mitigation
methods, disseminates to staffmethods, disseminates to staff
22
9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE
What are the conditions that define success / What are the conditions that define success / termination of operationstermination of operations
Strategic End State conditionsStrategic End State conditions– Returning to state of peace & stabilityReturning to state of peace & stability– May include diplomatic, economic, military, May include diplomatic, economic, military,
informational conditionsinformational conditions Operational (military) End State conditionsOperational (military) End State conditions
– Transition from predominant use of military to other Transition from predominant use of military to other instruments of national powerinstruments of national power
Focus on Focus on OperationalOperational (military) end state (military) end state conditions!conditions!
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9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE
What are the conditions that define success / termination of What are the conditions that define success / termination of operationsoperations
End state basic principlesEnd state basic principles– Conditions contribute to end of combat on terms Conditions contribute to end of combat on terms
favorable to coalition/multinational partnersfavorable to coalition/multinational partners– Gain control over enemy’s capabilitiesGain control over enemy’s capabilities– Control defined by CTF’s ability to impose its will on Control defined by CTF’s ability to impose its will on
enemy, and preventing enemy from renewing conflictenemy, and preventing enemy from renewing conflict Describe and record end state conditionsDescribe and record end state conditions
– In terms of enemy’s capabilitiesIn terms of enemy’s capabilities– In terms of friendly capabilitiesIn terms of friendly capabilities
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10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT
Consider essential tasks; describe the Consider essential tasks; describe the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHYWHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHY
““When directed, CTF Huimang will provide initialWhen directed, CTF Huimang will provide initialHA/DR and conduct emergency infrastructureHA/DR and conduct emergency infrastructurerepair within the AO in order to alleviate humanrepair within the AO in order to alleviate humansuffering and create an environment enabling suffering and create an environment enabling the transition to civil authority”the transition to civil authority”
EXAMPLE:EXAMPLE:
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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTFCPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
Chief of Staff (COS) or
C5 / C3 Purpose & Agenda Area of Operations
C2 Initial Intel situation Elements of IPB
27
11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTFCPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
C5 / C3 SSC’s mission,
intent, CONOPS Forces available Assumptions Limitations
COGs/Decisive Pts Tasks
– Specified– Implied– Essential
Initial Force Structure Risk Assessment
28
11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTFCPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
C5 / C3 End State Proposed Mission
Statement Time analysis
– projected planning milestones
C1 Facts, assumptions,
conclusions Personnel actions Personnel services Other personnel related
support
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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF 11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF
CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTFCPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF
C4 Facts, assumptions,
conclusions Supply Services, Health Svc Transportation Others
C6 Facts, assumptions,
conclusions
OTHERS As appropriate to the
mission
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Common understanding of the problem Common understanding of the problem and the missionand the mission
CTF restated mission CTF restated mission Commander’s guidance & approval to Commander’s guidance & approval to
continue planningcontinue planning
MISSION ANALYSIS END STATE MISSION ANALYSIS END STATE
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MISSION ANALYSISMISSION ANALYSISTASK STEPSTASK STEPS
1.1. Determine known factsDetermine known facts 2.2. Develop assumptionsDevelop assumptions
3.3. Analyze SSC’s mission & intentAnalyze SSC’s mission & intent 4.4. Determine limitationsDetermine limitations 5.5. Determine COGs / Decisive PointsDetermine COGs / Decisive Points
6.6. Identify operational-level tasksIdentify operational-level tasks 7.7. Initial CTF force structure analysisInitial CTF force structure analysis 8.8. Initial risk assessmentInitial risk assessment
9.9. Determine military end stateDetermine military end state10.10. Develop mission statementDevelop mission statement
11.11. Prepare mission analysis brief Prepare mission analysis brief
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VCOA Decision
VCOA Decision
IVCOA Comparison
IVCOA Comparison
IIICOA Analysis
IIICOA Analysis
IICOA Development
IICOA Development
IMission Analysis
IMission Analysis
Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process
Crisis Action Planning ProcessCrisis Action Planning Process
WARNORDWARNORD EXORDEXORD
ISituation
Development
IICrisis
Assessment
IIICOA
Development
IVCOA
Selection
VExecutionPlanning
VI
Execution
Mission Analysis in ContextMission Analysis in Context
ALERTORDALERTORDand/orand/or
PLANORDPLANORD
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MISSION ANALYSIS MISSION ANALYSIS OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT)
QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?