1 Keynote Speech, Third National Conference, FCE, Kano Combating Global Climate Change through Science and Technology Sahalu Junaidu [email protected]

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Keynote Speech, Third National Conference, FCE, Kano

Combating Global Climate Change through Science and Technology

Sahalu [email protected]

Director, Iya Abubakar Computer CenterAhmadu Bello University, Zaria

September 15, 2010, FCE Kano

mailto:[email protected]

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Outline

Introduction

Causes of Climate Change

Why Combat Climate Change?

Policies for Combating Climate Change

Role of Alternative Energy

Science, Technology & Climate Change

Summary & RecommendationsSeptember 15, 2010, FCE Kano

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Introduction

What is Climate Change?change occurring in the climate during a period of time that can range from decades to centuries

What is Global Warming?the increase in the earth's average temperature due to the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities.

Global warming leads to climate change


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… Introduction

Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and potentially serious health consequences

Some health impacts will result from direct-acting effects like heatwave-related deaths and weather disasters.

Others will result from disturbances to complex ecological processes like changes in patterns of infectious disease, in freshwater supplies, and in food

production.

Hence, there is scientific consensus that immediate, direct action is needed to halt climate change.


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… Introduction

Some initiatives that aim to address the issue of climate change

1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) an international environmental treaty Goal: stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that

would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system

2. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a scientific intergovernmental body tasked with evaluating the risk of climate change

caused by human activity publishing special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UNFCCC


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Causes of Climate Change

Two main causes of climate change Human factors Natural factors

Both factors cause the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere Carbon dioxide is the most common one that represents over 60% of these gases


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… Causes of Climate Change: Human Factors

Use of coal, oil, and natural gas to generate electricity, heat our homes, power our factories, and run our cars

Trees cut down for development, agriculture, and other purposes Trees and other plants use carbon dioxide and give off oxygen When cut, they are no longer available to take carbon dioxide out of the air They release carbon dioxide as they decay or burn.


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Why Combat Climate Change?

To mitigate its potential global impact

To make life worthwhile for future generations

Some potential consequences of climate change Natural Disasters Water Quality and Quantity Food Security Air Pollution


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… Why Combat Climate Change? Natural Disasters

Increases risk of both floods and droughts E.g., in 2007, IPCC scientists predicted that warming oceans and melting glaciers due

to global warming and climate change could cause sea levels to rise 7-23 inches by the year 2100

Water Quality and Quantity By reducing fresh water supplies, climate change may affect sanitation and lower the

efficiency of local sewer systems, leading to increased concentrations of pathogens in raw water supplies

Air Pollution The air is full of particles and gases that may affect human health, such as pollen,

fungal spores, and pollutants from fossil fuel emissions.


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Policies for Combating Climate Change Currently industry and policy makers have focused on three

approaches to promote smaller carbon footprints: Carbon Taxes Cap and trade Carbon offsetting

Carbon Tax an environmental tax that is levied on the carbon content of fuels implemented by taxing the burning of fossil fuels—coal, petroleum products such as

gasoline and aviation fuel, and natural gas—in proportion to their carbon content increases the competitiveness of non-carbon technologies compared to the

traditional burning of fossil fuels


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… Policies for Combating Climate Change

Cap and trade a governmental body sets a limit or cap on the amount of a pollutant that can be

emitted The limit or cap is allocated or sold to firms in the form of emissions permits which

represent the right to emit or discharge a specific volume of the specified pollutant Firms are required to hold a number of permits (or credits) equivalent to their

emissions Firms that need to increase their emission permits must buy permits from those who

require fewer permits


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… Policies for Combating Climate Change

Carbon offsetting Companies and individuals undertake to reduce their carbon footprint Rewarded with money from heavy emitters or make direct donations of money to

compensate for their carbon emission Has become very controversial as there are no industry standards and it has attracted

some unsavory organizations and practices.


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Role of Alternative Energy

Alternative energy is an umbrella term that refers to any source of usable energy intended to replace fuel sources without the undesired consequences of the replaced fuels. Energy derived from sources that do not use up natural resources or harm the

environment

Common alternative energy sources include: Renewable energy Nuclear power Use of natural gas


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… Role of Alternative Energy

Renewable energy One means of reducing carbon emissions is the further development of renewable

energy such as wind power Scientists have advanced a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind,

hydroelectric, and solar power by the year 203 In some countries, government action has boosted the development of renewable

energy technologies, through renewable energy subsidies

Nuclear power Nuclear power currently produces over 15% of the world's electricity Seen as a possible alternative to fossil fuels due to its low emittance of greenhouse

gases and reliability But it is controversial for reasons of capital cost and political impact


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Role of Renewable Energy

What is renewable energy? Energy generated from natural resources – sunlight, wind, rain, tides and

geothermal heat – which are renewable (naturally replenished)

Offers our planet a chance to reduce carbon emissions, clean the air, and put our civilization on a more sustainable footing

Also offers countries around the world the chance to improve their energy security and spur economic development.

More than 65 countries now have goals for their own renewable energy futures, and are enacting a far-reaching array of policies to meet those goals


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… Role of Renewable Energy And many renewables technologies and industries have been growing at

rates of 20 to 60 percent, year after year, capturing the interest of the largest global companies

In 2007, more than $100 billion was invested in renewable energy production assets, manufacturing, research, and development

a true global milestone

In 2004, 3,000 delegates from 150 countries came together to share ideas and make commitments at the “Renewables 2004” conference in Bonn, Germany

Renewable energy has reached the top of the agendas of international policy processes under the United Nations, the G8, and other multilateral fora


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… Role of Renewable Energy $43 Billion Stimulus for Energy Technology

Obama’s administration

$30 billion for smart power grid, advanced battery technology and energy efficiency initiatives.

$20 billion in tax incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency over the next decade.

$400 million to fund establishment of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy

$580 million for the National Institute of Standards and Technology for technology innovation and manufacturing standards programs.

This energy funding is estimated to create nearly 500,000 jobsSeptember 15, 2010, FCE Kano

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=1Z3GJBSKEXBISQSNDLSCKHA?articleID=214400150

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=02JE0HSMOAKAEQSNDLSCKHA?articleID=214303485

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ICT and Climate Change

It is estimated that ICT industry consumes anywhere from 6-10% of the world's energy and is responsible for 2-3% of the world's GHG emissions About 40% of these emissions are from personal computers and cell

phone About 60% of the output comes from businesses, network operators,

and application providers.

This emission is estimated to grow at 6% each year until 2020 Due to growth in demand for its products and services


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ICT Emissions: PCs and Peripherals

PCs are expected to be ubiquitous in developing countries, too, as the proliferation of Internet cafes indicates The number of PCs globally is expected to increase from 592 million in

2002 to more than four billion in 2020.

In 2002, the PC and monitors’ combined carbon footprint was 200 MtCO2e

This is expected to triple by 2020 to 600 MtCO2e A growth rate of 5% per annum!


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ICT Emissions: Data Centers

Buildings that house a collection of servers, storage devices, network equipment, power supplies, fans and other cooling equipment

Data centers will grow faster than any other ICT technology Driven by the need for storage, computing and other information technology (IT)

services. Despite first-generation virtualization and other efficiency measures

In 2002, the global data centre footprint, including equipment use and embodied carbon, was 76 MtCO2e

This is expected to more than triple by 2020 to 259 MtCO2e A growth rate of 7% pa The fastest-growing contributor to the ICT sector’s carbon footprint


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ICT Emissions: Telecoms Infrastructure and Devices

Increased mobile phone and Internet use had led to increase in telecoms infrastructure

Telecoms emissions has grown from 150 MtCO2e in 2002 to 300 MtCO2e in 2007 and is expected to reach 350 MtCO2e in 2020

The majority of emissions from mobile devices come from standby mode, the power used by chargers that are plugged in but not in use.

Overall consumption of telecoms devices is set to decrease over the 2020 timeframe because “smart chargers” (those that turn off when a device is not connected)

Telecoms devices’ emissions can be reduced further using greener ICT technologies


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Reducing ICT Sector’s Footprints

The direct carbon footprint of the ICT sector is dominated by electricity consumption

Mitigate by purchasing renewable electricity installing renewable generation on site, and making renewable electricity integral to ICT products

The ICT sector is uniquely placed to partner with power companies to optimize the existing electricity grid to allow more efficient power

distribution and enable the use of more renewable or green power Smart grids


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Reducing ICT Sector’s Footprints: Barriers

Lack of information about the emissions impacts of products and services, especially in the context of complex configurations and integration. Telecoms providers often don’t know the energy consumption of

specific services

There are agency issues to overcome person buying the company’s servers may not be responsible for their

operating costs may not include maximum efficiency as part of their buying specification.


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… Reducing ICT Sector’s Footprints: Barriers

Technological or market concerns E.g., constant radical innovation is required to keep making processors

more efficient May hinder improvement of exiting processors

Inaccessibility of efficiency information of devices to consumers Ongoing work: PC labeling schemes as Energy Star, etc


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ICT Enabling Effect

ICT can also enable other sectors mitigate climate change: Transport – smart logistics Building – smart buildings Power – smart grids Industry - smart motor systems Dematerialization – in all the above

This opportunity estimated to be 5 times larger than ICT sector’s own carbon footprints Translates into approx. $946.5 billion of cost savings Assumption: cost of carbon is about $32 per ton

Realization requires a radical transformation of current infrastructure


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ICT Enabling Effect: Dematerialization

Replacing high carbon physical products and activities with virtual low carbon equivalents

ICT opportunities E-commerce Teleworking Teleconferencing/videoconferencing

A study indicates using technology to dematerialize could deliver reduction equivalent to the total ICT footprint in 2002


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ICT Enabling Effect: Industry

Industrial activity is one of the largest contributors to global emissions Can be reduced with optimized motors and industrial automation

Smart motor systems Devices that can be controlled to adjust power usage to a required

output

ICT opportunities Monitor energy use and provide data to businesses so they can

make energy and cost savings by changing manufacturing systems Provide simulation software to help improve plant and

manufacturing process design


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ICT Enabling Effect: Transport

Global goods transport is growing rapidly, as a result of globalization

ICT can assist with efficient packaging, transport, storage, consumer purchasing and waste

Smart logistics A range of software and hardware tools that monitor, optimize and manage

operations

ICT opportunities Provision of software to improve the design of transport networks, allow the running

of centralized distribution networks and run management systems that can facilitate flexible home delivery services

Optimizing logistics using ICT could result in a 16% reduction in transport emissions and a 27% reduction in storage emissions globally.


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ICT Enabling Effect: Buildings

Energy consumption in buildings is driven by two factors – energy intensity and surface area

ICT-based monitoring, feedback and optimization tools can be used to reduce both at every stage of a building’s life cycle, from design and construction to use and demolition.

Smart buildings A suite of technologies used to make the design, construction and operation of

buildings more efficient

ICT opportunities Building management systems (BMS) that run heating and cooling systems

according to occupants’ needs Software that switches off all PCs and monitors after everyone has gone home


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ICT Enabling Effect: Power

Current centralized energy distribution networks are often huge, inefficient grids that lose power in transmission require an overcapacity of generating capability to cope with unexpected surges in energy use

Smart grids A set of software and hardware tools that enable generators to route power more efficiently,

reducing the need for excess capacity Improve efficiency, energy monitoring and data capture across the power generation and T&D

network

ICT opportunities Smart meters Dynamic demand systems – allow appliances like refrigerators to dynamically reduce their load

at peak times

Electricity generation currently accounts for 57% of India’s total emissions Reduction by 30% is possible with smart grids


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ICT Enabling Effect: Hurdles

The potential savings may not be easy to come by! Policy, market and behavioral hurdles must be overcome

Chinese factory managers find it difficult to stop producing long enough to implement more efficient industrial processes Risk revenue loss and competitiveness

Low adoption rates Only 1-2% of US workforce teleworked in 2005

Technological barriers Lack of capacity and skills to operate advanced automation technologies

Infrastructure Lack of high quality, affordable Internet access services to all consumers and

businessesSeptember 15, 2010, FCE Kano

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Energy Efficiency Paradox

Technology improvements allow for better energy efficiency, but those savings can be lost to greater consumption:

Smart meters in our homes may reduce energy costs, and allow us to afford larger homes which consume more energy

Congestion control systems may reduce traffic congestion but thereby encourage automobile usage

The largest consumption of energy for personal computers is in their manufacture as opposed to their operation The manufacture of a typical desktop PC accounts for almost 80% of the total

energy used in a 3 year life-cycle

Anything less than a target of zero carbon emissions throughout the entire ICT system will be less effective


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Zero Carbon Innovations Zero-carbon strategies

Zero carbon inevitably means producing energy through renewable sources

Next generation networks (NGN) and Next generation Internet (NGI) Network technologies to deploy zero carbon networks

wired and wireless networks, new router and optical architectures, and new distributed computing architectures

distributed grids and clouds using zero carbon data centers use of Web services and SOA with virtualization, consumer applications on zero carbon data networks

Incentives To consumers Companies


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Summary Global Warming is one of the greatest environmental

challenges facing the planet Science and Technology are both a cause of global warming

and also a major part of the solution

ICT can empower other sectors in mitigating emissions

Realizing ICT’s potentials may be no easy win

Renewable energy sources provide the most promising alternative in the long run


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Recommendations Do more to create a fiscal and regulatory environment that will

encourage faster and more widespread adoption of new technologies

Provide incentives to businesses and consumers to adopt efficiency measures strengthening the business case for investing in efficiency

technology and training more people to implement and operate products of new technologies

Provide disincentives to vested interests who want to perpetuate the status quo

Investment into the development of ICT energy efficiency technologies R&D on NGN and NGI


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The End

Questions / Comments


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References1. Climate Gateway. http://www.climategateway.com/climateenglish/queescc.htm. Accessed 12 September 2010.

2. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php. Retrieved 12 September 2010.

3. Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009-01-14. http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf. Retrieved 12 September 2010 .

4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/. Accessed 12 September 2010.

5. Stavins, Robert N. (November 2001). "Experience with Market-Based Environmental Policy Instruments". Discussion Paper 01-58 (Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future). http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-01-58.pdf. Retrieved 13 September 2010.

6. "Memorandum submitted by The Carbon Trust (ET19)". Environmental Audit Committee – Memoranda. Contents: The role of carbon markets in preventing dangerous climate charge. UK Parliament website. 2009-03. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmenvaud/290/9042105.htm. Retrieved 13 September 2010 .

7. Jacobson, M.Z. and Delucchi, M.A. (November 2009) "A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables" (originally published as "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030") Scientific American 301(5):58-65

8. "CARBON FOOTPRINT OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION". Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (UK). October 2006. http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/postpn268.pdf. Retrieved 14 September 2010.

9. “The GeSI study – SMART 2020: enabling the low carbon economy in the information age – the world’s first comprehensive global study of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector’s growing significance for the world’s climate, issued the 20th of June 2008, by the Climate Group and the Global e Sustainability ‑Initiative (GeSI). See the report at www.gesi.org

10. An Inefficient Truth: http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutral

2. http://www.thegreengrid.org/home September 15, 2010, FCE Kano

http://www.climategateway.com/climateenglish/queescc.htm.%20Accessed%2012%20September%202010

http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php

http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change

http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf.%20Retrieved%2012%20September%202010

http://www.ipcc.ch/

http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-01-58.pdf

http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-01-58.pdf.%20Retrieved%2013%20September%202010

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmenvaud/290/9042105.htm

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmenvaud/290/9042105.htm.%20Retrieved%2013%20September%202010

http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/susenergy2030.html



http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/postpn268.pdf

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/postpn268.pdf

http://www.gesi.org/

http://www.globalactionplan.org.uk/event_detail.aspx?eid=2696e0e0-28fe-4121-bd36-3670c02eda49

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutral

http://www.thegreengrid.org/home

Documents

1 Keynote Speech, Third National Conference, FCE, Kano Combating Global Climate Change through Science and Technology Sahalu Junaidu [email protected]