1 GEOG 442 Day 9: Class Project Brainstorm and Population and Household Projections [Chapter 4 (cont’d) ]

1

GEOG 442GEOG 442

Day 9Day 9: Class Project Brainstorm : Class Project Brainstorm and Population and Household and Population and Household Projections [Chapter 4 Projections [Chapter 4 (cont’d)(cont’d)]]

2

Housekeeping ItemsHousekeeping ItemsAGENDA FOR TODAYAGENDA FOR TODAY:: There's a film showing at Worldbridger (Tuesday There's a film showing at Worldbridger (Tuesday

night in Building 356, Room 109 at 7 p.m.). It's night in Building 356, Room 109 at 7 p.m.). It's called called Food Matters on the links between food and Food Matters on the links between food and healthhealth and it will be followed by a facilitated and it will be followed by a facilitated discussion led by Lorelei Andrew & Denise Geib.discussion led by Lorelei Andrew & Denise Geib.

short video: “Deeper Shades of Green”short video: “Deeper Shades of Green” report-back on research assignments from last timereport-back on research assignments from last time some research I didsome research I did brainstorm in larger or smaller groups, and summary brainstorm in larger or smaller groups, and summary

of, andof, and if time permits, review of the rest of Chapter 4.if time permits, review of the rest of Chapter 4.

3

Report-Backs...Report-Backs...

DeannaDeanna- possible locations for - possible locations for proposed sustainability/ recycling proposed sustainability/ recycling centrecentre

Jeff & NigelJeff & Nigel- possible user groups- possible user groups Kevin & ConstanzaKevin & Constanza- possible activities- possible activities Maury & TylerMaury & Tyler- design principles- design principles Matt & RichMatt & Rich- energy systems- energy systems CraigCraig- building materials- building materials

4

My ResearchMy Research

From a book called From a book called Flexible, Architecture Flexible, Architecture that Responds to Changethat Responds to Change, by Robert , by Robert KronenburgKronenburg,, I derived four principles that I I derived four principles that I think are very relevant to this project: think are very relevant to this project: adaptableadaptable, , transformativetransformative, , moveablemoveable, and, and interactiveinteractive..

Also, CMHC has developed a prototype Also, CMHC has developed a prototype home, whose design is potentially quite home, whose design is potentially quite relevant and embodies some of these relevant and embodies some of these principles. It's called Canprinciples. It's called Canüühome [home [http://www.canuhome.com/].].

5

Chap. 4 -- Developing a Database on UsersChap. 4 -- Developing a Database on Users

As Leung points out, to plan for an area, we need As Leung points out, to plan for an area, we need information on its demographics, people’s social and information on its demographics, people’s social and economic characteristics, as well as activities, economic characteristics, as well as activities, perceptions, needs, and financial capabilities.perceptions, needs, and financial capabilities.

Key categories include: population size by age, sex, Key categories include: population size by age, sex, occupation, income, and ethnic or language occupation, income, and ethnic or language composition; households by size, income, age and sex composition; households by size, income, age and sex of household head(s), stage in life cycle and selected of household head(s), stage in life cycle and selected ethnic or language groups; labour participation rates, ethnic or language groups; labour participation rates, female employment, and types of jobs; employment for female employment, and types of jobs; employment for selected economic sectors (and location of selected economic sectors (and location of employment), and retail sales.employment), and retail sales.

6

Introduction to DemographicsIntroduction to Demographics(see (see Boom Bust & Echo 2000Boom Bust & Echo 2000 by David K. Foot) by David K. Foot)

DemographyDemography is the study of human populations. is the study of human populations. It is a tool to help understand the past and predict It is a tool to help understand the past and predict

the future/ [For an example of someone who is the future/ [For an example of someone who is applying it to land use planning topics, see David applying it to land use planning topics, see David Baxter and the Baxter and the Urban Futures Institute Urban Futures Institute in in Vancouver -- http://urbanfutures.com/Vancouver -- http://urbanfutures.com/

The most significant current trend is the fact that The most significant current trend is the fact that baby-boomers make up 1/3 of population.baby-boomers make up 1/3 of population.

We are also faced with an aging population due to We are also faced with an aging population due to low fertility rates and increased life expectancy.low fertility rates and increased life expectancy.

7

““Two-Thirds of Everything”?Two-Thirds of Everything”?

Demographics plays an important role role in economics and social life – for instance, in

what products will be in demand in helping to predict school enrolments in what crimes will increase in the increase/decrease in house values

8

““Two-Thirds of Everything”?Two-Thirds of Everything”?

Foote argues that not enough decision-makers pay attention to demographics. If demographics was used then:

school boards would not open new elementary schools when they should be opening high schools instead.

hospitals would not close maternity wards only to have to open them a couple years later, etc.

9

Canada’s 2006 Population PyramidCanada’s 2006 Population Pyramid

10

Key Demographic TermsKey Demographic Terms

Fertility Rate- average number of children born to women (15-44) over their lifetimes

Birth Rate- total number of births divided by the size of the population

Canada has a low fertility rate: 1.7 This is used as a rationale for high immigration

levels. Cohort is a group of people born in the same time

period. The ‘baby boom’ cohort was born over a 20 year

period (from 1947 to 1966).

11

The Baby Boom The Baby Boom (1947 To 1966)(1947 To 1966)

A large cohort Canada produced more than 400,000 Canadians each

year of the boom Largest year was 1961 (which also had high

immigration) 1/3 of Canadians are boomers They are the result of high fertility rates and high

incomes This period ended due to women entering the

workforce, getting higher educations and postponing having children.

12

Developing a Population DatabaseDeveloping a Population Database

This kind of population data is available from the Census which, in Canada, is conducted every five years. Population estimates are also made by the provinces in between censuses. The answers to some census questions are only for a 20% sample, which introduces the possibility of inaccuracy.

13

Developing a Population DatabaseDeveloping a Population Database

Data is available for a variety of scales: provinces: census metropolitan areas (CMAs), census divisions, census subdivisions (municipalities), census tracts, and census enumeration areas.

Tracts are useful, but are not usually related to administrative boundaries. Enumeration areas are too small to be of much use, except when aggregated together to form a planning area.

14

Estimating Population Estimating Population (Methods for Current (Methods for Current Estimates)Estimates)

Changes in population are influenced by two factors: natural increase and net migration. Migration has two possible sources – from elsewhere in the province (intra-provincial) or country (inter-provincial), and from outside the country (international).

Component method- Considered the best method, it involves taking the last census count, adding registered births and deaths (with some adjustments) and then adding net migration (as revealed by changes in school enrolments).

15

Estimating Population (Methods-Estimating Population (Methods- cont’dcont’d))

Ratio method- Deriving the population for an area based on the presumed population of a region, where the historic proportion of the area to the region is known. This method assumes that the proportion remains constant.

Symptomatic data method- Adjusts the last census count using observed trends in other data sets: city directory listings, utility usage, telephone installation, dwelling unit counts, or registered voters, etc.

16

Estimating Population Estimating Population (Methods for Projection)(Methods for Projection)

Population projections are necessary for planning purposes, but can be wildly inaccurate. For this reason, a range of estimates is often made (e.g. high, medium, low). Certain estimates might be favoured for different applications.

Cohort-survival method involves breaking the population into male and female and grouping them by age into five-year components (‘cohorts’). Death rates for each cohort are used to determine how many of that group can be expected to survive to the next five year mark.

17


Net in- or out-migrations are also estimated, along with expected births based on current fertility rates.

This process can be repeated for subsequent 5-year periods.

Deduction and Extrapolation Method- similar to the ratio method mentioned before (i.e. the ratio share of a larger region’s population that belongs to the area in question, as extrapolated into the future). This can be as simple as a straight-line arithmetic projection.

18


Alternatively, one can use births, deaths, and migration as independent components for a regression analysis. One can also extrapolate from other communities with similar characteristics. This method is less reliable than the cohort-survival method.

Holding Capacity Methods- This involves estimating the maximum population that can be sustained by the land, infrastructure, and environmental resources, and the likely impacts of of human activities.

19


Analytic Methods- This examines the underlying causes of economic growth or decline – for instance, changes in the economy. The most common method is the economic base method. This involves looking at the basic (export) and non-basic (local consumption) components of the local economy.

Expansion in basic activities leads to expansion in non-basic, as calculated through multiplier effects (income and/or employment).

20


Different basic activities tend to have different multiplier effects, and some activities can be both basic and non-basic. One must also determine the area within which one is making calculations, and the proportion of basic and non-basic activities.

The method can also be used to calculate the impact of a new firm or business on the local economy.

21

Methods for Determining User NeedsMethods for Determining User Needs

Three types of users: households, firms, and institutions, each with distinctive attributes, values, and needs. While there is always a certain degree of uniqueness, to plan we need to make certain generalizations and assumptions about these users.

For households, one can consider: age, income, and household size; also: sex, race, education, and sometimes other categories.

22

Methods for Determining User Needs Methods for Determining User Needs (cont’d)(cont’d)

Income and housing tenure gives insight into housing requirements and affordability and retail needs and preferences (including location).

Sometimes ‘archetypes’ are formed by amalgamating categories – e.g. low-income single-parent households.

Age data is useful for determining life cycle needs (moving behaviour, housing needs, and community facility needs).

23

Methods for Determining User Needs Methods for Determining User Needs (cont’d)(cont’d)

Household sizes are useful for residential land allocation and housing market analysis.

One may also wish to know activity patterns – what do people do, where, and when? How important are various activities? Also: how satisfactory are the opportunities people have available to them?

Stated preferences do not always correspond to actual behaviour, so one must come up with ways to correct for this.

Market trends are useful, but not infallible, means for determining people’s desires.

24

Methods for Determining User NeedsMethods for Determining User Needs (cont’d)(cont’d)

Environmental satisfaction is also important at four scales: the dwelling, the interior, the site, and the neighbourhood. Dwelling relates to form, maintenance, and architectural qualities. Interior relates to number and size of rooms, storage, appliances and facilities, HVAC, energy, plumbing, parking, and convenience.

Site has to do with lot size, orientation for privacy and view, outdoor facilities and maintenance, grading and drainage for access, etc. Neighbourhood has to do with socio-economic characteristics, housing types and density, availability of facilities (schools, shopping, community centres, etc.), public services (police, fire, garbage collection), security from traffic and crime, and noise, privacy and visual amenity issues.

25

Discussion QuestionsDiscussion Questions

Why is it important to look at demographic trends in Nanaimo?

What do you think are significant long term trends?

Any predictions for how the City and region will be impacted by these trends?

Documents

1 GEOG 442 Day 9: Class Project Brainstorm and Population and Household Projections [Chapter 4 (cont’d) ]