1 EIB Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region ... · Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region – Executive Summary 3 2.4 The projections until 2030 The projections of key

Study prepared for:

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK

TRT Trasporti e Territorio

Milan, 30 June 2017

TRANSPORT STUDY FOR THE DANUBE

MACRO-REGION

Executive summary

Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region – Executive Summary

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Document Control Sheet

Customer European Investment Bank

Contract Number CC8414/PO92839

Project name Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region

File name EIB Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region - Executive Summary

Version

Date 18/07/2017

Document classification

Draft X Final

Confidential X Restricted X Public

Main editor Silvia Maffii and Marco Brambilla

Contributors Angelo Martino

Final approval Silvia Maffii

Available to European Investment Bank Assignment Manager

Contact

Dr. Silvia Maffii

TRT Trasporti e Territorio

Via Rutilia 10/8

Milano - Italy

Tel: +39 02 57410380

e-mail: [email protected]

Web: www.trt.it


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TABLE OF CONTENT

1 THE OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................... 1

2 THE DANUBE MACRO-REGION ............................................................................................... 1

2.1 THE MAIN SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS ......................................................................... 1

2.2 THE TRANSPORT CONTEXT ......................................................................................................... 2

2.3 THE CURRENT TRANSPORT DEMAND .......................................................................................... 2

2.4 THE PROJECTIONS UNTIL 2030 ................................................................................................. 3

2.5 THE TRANSPORT NETWORKS BOTTLENECKS .............................................................................. 3

2.6 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SAFETY ASPECTS ..................................................................................... 4

3 THE FUNCTIONAL REGIONS OF THE DANUBE MACRO-REGION .................................. 4

4 THE FUTURE TRANSPORT PROJECTS .................................................................................. 5

4.1 THE PROCESS OF PROJECTS’ IDENTIFICATION ............................................................................ 5

4.2 THE IDENTIFIED FUTURE TRANSPORT PROJECTS ....................................................................... 6

4.2.1 The modal balance ............................................................................................................................. 6

4.2.2 The geographical coverage ................................................................................................................ 7

4.2.3 The transport network context .......................................................................................................... 8

4.2.4 Final remarks ..................................................................................................................................... 8

5 MAPS AND SUMMARY TABLE OF FUTURE TRANSPORT PROJECTS ........................... 9

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 5-1: TEN-T CNCs crossing the Danube Macro-Region ................................................................................... 10

Figure 5-2: TEN-T core and comprehensive networks of the Danube Macro-Region .................................... 11

Figure 5-3: The identified Functional Regions of the Danube Macro-Region .................................................... 12

Figure 5-4: Geographical localisation of the identified future transport projects ........................................... 14

LIST OF TABLES

Table 4-1: Summary of future transport projects by FRs and modes ...................................................................... 6

Table 5-1: High-level overview of the identified future transport projects........................................................ 13


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1 The objectives of the study

The EU Strategy for the Danube Area aims to provide an integrated framework for countries and regions in order to address issues that require transnational and supranational strategic approaches.

This study has been conceived for the EU Strategy, specifically for the Priority Area 1b of Mobility and Multimodality, which addresses road, rail and air transport modes. The EU Strategy tackles mobility challenges and identifies opportunities to support the development of transport networks within the so-called Danube Macro-Region, whose geographical scope embraces fourteen countries.

Mobility challenges at stake consist of multimodality improvement, better interconnection amongst the modes and modernisation and extension of infrastructure networks. In this respect, the opportunities rely on the potential to improve the TEN-T Core Network Corridors (i.e., CNCs) crossing the Danube Macro-Region, connect the countries of the Western Balkans and extend towards the countries of the Eastern Partnership initiative.

The study encompassed three main activities: (i) an extensive review of the existing studies, plans and strategies and databases to collect information on the transport sectors, projections as well as proposed transport projects; (ii) split of the Danube Macro-Region in a number of Functional Regions; and (iii) the selection of a minimum of 20 transport projects covering all the identified Functional Regions.

Based on the available documentation, the study elaborated a snapshot of the Danube Macro-Region, in terms of main socio-economic characteristics, current and forecasted demand volumes, reported bottlenecks and environmental and safety issues. On this basis, starting from pre-identified projects selected from (i) the TEN-T Core Network Corridors studies, (ii) the SEETO Multi annual Plans, (iii) the Eastern Partnership initiative and (v) national transport plans, the study identified future transport projects of road, rail and air modes that are relevant at country level and important for the Danube Macro-Region.

2 The Danube Macro-Region

The Danube Macro-Region is a functional area, defined by its river basin, stretching from the Black Forest in Southern Germany to the river’s delta on the Black Sea. Strategically located on the Eastern continental Europe, the region can give the opportunity to the EU to open its borders to neighbouring regions of Caucasus and Central Asia.

2.1 The main socio-economic characteristics

Today, the Danube Macro-Region is home to approximately 115 million inhabitants who have been reducing by 1,8% from 2006 to 2014. Measuring the economy in monetary values, the region’s GDP amounted to nearly € 2 trillion in 2014. The global crisis markedly impacted on the economy (GDP has been gradually recovering since the -6% dip in 2008) and determined the public debt increase of all the countries.

In terms of GDP composition, the value of the services produced outweighs the agriculture and industry sectors and its weight is evenly distributed across the countries. While industry is more developed in EU Member States, agriculture - accounting only for a tiny share - is essentially in neighbouring and Western Balkans countries. Notably, improvements of welfare and social conditions over the last decades, together with average GDP per capita increases, favoured the rise of private vehicles ownership.

The emerged socio-economic picture of the Danube Macro-Region is quite heterogeneous. The differences in terms of size of the economies and growth, unemployment and welfare distribution depict a context wherein less developed regions lag behind the wealthier ones. Closing the economic gap remains a major challenge for defining a common development path.


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2.2 The transport context

The Danube Macro-Region assembles three transport areas: the TEN-T network, the Western Balkans SEETO network and the Eastern Partnership strategic network (see Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2).

The TEN-T network has two layers. The core network, which carries most of passenger and freight flows and the comprehensive network, which ensures access to the core network. As part of the TEN-T core network, the CNCs represent the main axis on which the EC concentrate efforts to (i) remove bottlenecks, (ii) fill missing links and (iii) promote integration and interoperability amongst transport modes.

The sound bases for the Western Balkans’ SEETO comprehensive network development is provided by Multi-Annual Plans that include transport projects assessment and prioritisation. In 2013, the SEETO comprehensive network maps were included in the TEN-T guidelines, as indicative extension of the TEN-T CNCs1.

The development of the transport network infrastructures towards the Eastern Partnership countries is a key element of the European Neighbourhood Policy. The Eastern Partnership initiative included the extension of TEN-T towards the transport network of the neighbouring countries and a list of priority infrastructure projects was agreed between the EU and Eastern Partnership Transport Ministers.

2.3 The current transport demand

The estimations of the current transport demand volumes of the countries of the Danube Macro-Region have been elaborated from outputs of existing modelling exercises, with respect to the years 2010 and 2015. All in all, 1,2 billion tonnes per year of freight are exchanged and 3,9 billion passengers per year travel in the region.

Volumes transported by road and rail modes are mostly domestic and concentrated in the EU Member States. Not surprisingly, the land transport modal share is unbalanced in favour of the road transport both for passengers and freight. Dealing with the context of the TEN-T CNCs, and their extensions to accession and neighbouring countries, the long distance road demand segment is in the interval 5%-20% for freight and 2%-7% for passengers volumes, respectively.

Air transport volume observed for 73 airports from 2010 to 2015 shows that passengers increased from 125 to 146 million (i.e., 17,3%). Regarding cargo, the volume increased from 843 to 915 tonnes (i.e., 8,5%). The majority of the demand transits through Munich and Vienna hubs, while other primary international airports are in Bucharest, Budapest, Praha, Sofia, Belgrade and Zagreb. Whereas business travellers is the largest customer group in Southern Germany and Austria hubs, tourists and migrant communities are the largest ones in the Western Balkans.

From 2010 to 2015 maritime freight demand, generated by Adriatic (around 25%) and Black Sea ports (around 75%), incremented from 133 to 149 million tonnes (with average annual growth of 3%); dry bulk goods accounts for the largest share, (i.e., 44% of total volume), followed by liquid bulk goods (i.e., 28%) and large containers (i.e., 14%). The picture is different as regards the passengers, where Croatia ports hold almost the entire traffic, which grew from 23 to 27 million between 2006 and 2015.

Concerning inland waterways, the volume of goods yearly shipped on the Danube river shows an oscillating trend through the years. The ports with higher traffic (i.e., 3-4 million per year) are those interested either by sea-river relations (i.e., in Romania and Ukraine on the lower Danube) or by more intense multimodal flows (i.e., on the upper Danube).

1 On the basis of the Berlin process initiated in 2014, the agreement reached by the six Western Balkans Prime

Ministers (i.e., WB6) on the regional core transport network identified the extensions of the Mediterranean, Orient/East-Med and Rhine-Danube CNCs.


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2.4 The projections until 2030

The projections of key socio-economic drivers and demand volumes for road, rail and air transport modes have been elaborated in form of indicative annual growth rates for the period from 2015 to 2030. These annual rates have been derived by a variety of sources ranging from the studies of the six TEN-T CNCs crossing the region, to the EU Reference Scenario 2016, the updated Western Balkans REBIS study and the Eastern Partnership regional transport model. National transport plans and strategies provided additional information at national level. Given the marked heterogeneity of the data sources, these projections should be treated with caution.

According to the documents reviewed, the outlook of the population envisages that it would either reduce or increase (i.e., -0,36%/+0,14%), depending on migration patterns within the countries of the Danube Macro-Region and/or with the world outside. More defined are the forecasts of the economy where the projected annual GDP growth rate is expected to be in the range +1,47%/+2,69%, with higher rates for Western Balkans and Eastern Europe countries.

With respect to transport activities, road mode would keep its lion share, both for passengers and freight, although, depending on future infrastructures development, its share could slightly decline through time in favour of rail. For the TEN-T CNCs crossing the Danube Macro-Region, the picture is relatively diversified: western countries attract the majority of demand volumes, but are projected to reduce their grow rate, while countries of the eastern side of the region show lower demand volumes, but would be projected to grow at higher annual growth rates. Where in competition with the land modes, transport by inland waterways on the Danube river is not expected to grow significantly.

Concerning the sections of the TEN-T CNCs towards the Western Balkans, the highest road traffic projections are foreseen on the extensions of the Mediterranean CNC in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Orient/East-Med CNC in Serbia especially around urban agglomerations. The demand trends of neighbouring countries indicate a general increase, more visible on the rail sections Odessa-Ternopol and L’viv-borders with Hungary and Romania and on the road section Odessa-Uman-Kiev.

As also suggested by Eurocontrol, air transport would increase appreciably on annual basis, especially in the Eastern EU Member States, Western Balkans and neighbouring countries.

2.5 The transport networks bottlenecks

The documents reviewed2 indicate that physical road bottlenecks are largely due to infrastructures not complying with technical standards. Capacity constraints also occur during specific time periods, especially nearby urban agglomerations and when traffic is mixed (i.e., long distance, regional and urban). This condition may exacerbate capacity limitations of urban ring roads or bypasses.

For the TEN-T CNCs crossing the Danube Macro-Region (notably, Baltic-Adriatic, Mediterranean Orient/East-Med and Rhine-Danube), the localisation of current and future physical bottlenecks is provided by the relative studies that also identify the measures to address such limitations (e.g., upgrading or widening of transversal sections).

As regards the SEETO road network, the capacity analysis shows that the majority of the comprehensive network (i.e., 4.000 km) does not need of immediate interventions, while 24% (i.e., 1.500 km) requires rehabilitation and the 16% (i.e., 1.100 km) upgrading and/or widening. The analysis of the Eastern Partnership countries road network level of service shows that both Moldova and the 4 provinces of Ukraine have a relatively balanced picture in terms of volume to capacity ratio.

2 The EC’s CNCs studies, the updated REBIS, the Eastern Partnership Regional Transport Study and national plans

and strategies.


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Non-physical road bottlenecks, defined as transport and trade logistics impediments, also exist: a comparison of border crossing waiting times of EU and non-EU countries shows that significant improvements could be made. For instance, about 60% of EU bounded trucks cross the border in less than one hour. The corresponding figure for SEETO countries is only 10%.

As regards physical rail bottlenecks the information sources screened report that these are due to non-adequate technical characteristics. Limits to trains circulation, and hence also to commercial speed, depends on low speed limits allowed, permitted length of the convoy, maximum axle load and not appropriate signalling systems. Unevenness of the characteristics of adjacent sections along the lines is another disadvantage (i.e., change of the number of tracks and type of traction); indeed, at specific cross-border sections, physical bottlenecks are also due to the change of gauge between European and former Soviet standards of the Eastern Partnership countries. On the CNCs these are mostly localised on Eastern EU Member States sections, where generalised infrastructures deterioration is due to lack of maintenance, unfavourable geographical conditions and low level of deployment of ERTMS system.

Technical gaps exist as well in Western Balkans however, there is no need of immediate intervention to increase capacity. Poor infrastructure condition and maintenance backlog call for maintenance or rehabilitation works on a large proportion of the network.

Non-physical rail bottlenecks affecting the Danube Macro-Region are related to regulations, standards and procedures which are specifically relevant for cross-border operations between EU and non-EU countries. The age of rolling stock, the low percentage of interoperable locomotives and the complex homologation procedure - fragmented under the responsibilities of national safety agencies - are other non-physical limitations.

Physical air bottlenecks can be identified with airports layout (i.e., runway configuration, apron and terminal buildings) and insufficient ATC and navigation equipment. The main non-physical ones are due to the limited cooperation between regional airports. Benefits could be achieved from closer cooperation regarding the deployment of satellite based landing procedures or a common control.

2.6 Environmental and safety aspects

Not surprisingly, transport-related environmental issues in the region are mostly caused by cars and trucks’ air pollution emissions. Geographically concentrated in the most developed Western EU Member States, the trend of pollutant emissions has been generally decreasing over the period from 2005 to 2015 (according to ASTRA model and KNOEMA database).

From the legislative point of view, all Danube Macro-Region countries ratified the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (i.e., ESPOO Convention) and the Protocol on Strategic Environmental Assessment to the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (i.e., Kyiv Protocol).

According to the statistics available for the countries of the Danube Macro-Region, road safety shows a generalised improvement from 2006 to 2014 with respect to the number of accidents, casualties and injured persons. The safety level of the rail mode of the Eastern countries is good, even though the infrastructures suffer of shortage of investments and maintenance. Specific critical aspects for these countries are: the excessive number of level crossings and ineffectiveness of their security systems (e.g., absence of barriers, inadequate optical and luminous signalling, etc.), the absence of pedestrian underpasses inside the stations and inadequate and out of standards platforms. Very good safety records are observed for air transport.

3 The Functional Regions of the Danube Macro-Region

Within the context of the Danube Macro-Region, so-called Functional Regions have been conceived as building blocks upon which develop this study. The Functional Regions approach is a constructive way forward to (i) analyse socio-spatial systems that may interact beyond the national border and (ii) factor the


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relevant findings emerged analysing the socio-economic characteristics, the transport networks, the demand volumes, the bottlenecks and the environmental and safety issues.

A specific methodological approach has been followed to identify the Functional Regions. Elaborating on the scientific literature surveyed, three key dimensions were chosen, (i) spatial contiguity, (ii) socio-economic homogeneity and (iii) intensity of spatial interactions. On these bases, a specific stepwise approach was applied.

Once identified the appropriate basic spatial entity, the interaction amongst them was built upon the intensity of transport demand volumes of freight and passengers of road and rail transport modes and complemented by considerations on imports and exports (in monetary values) on a country basis. The aggregation obtained from the previous steps was checked against a set of socio-economic characteristics and with respect to the coherence with the three main networks crossing the region (i.e., TEN-T CNCs, SEETO and Eastern Partnership). Final confirmation for the identified nine Functional Regions (see Figure 5-3) was provided by the accessibility indicator, expressing the Multimodal European potential accessibility of freight transport, measured in terms of accessibility potential to GDP.

4 The future transport projects

4.1 The process of projects’ identification

Several information sources were screened, both at national and supranational level, to identify future transport projects that were in line with the study objectives and coherent with the Functional Regions approach.

Concerning the EU Member States, the EC studies of the six CNCs crossing the Danube Macro-Region provided the starting point, while for the Western Balkans countries two main sources were used: the SEETO Multi Annual Plans (from 2010 to 2016) and the updated Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study. The information sources also considered the agreement reached by the WB6 on the integration of SEETO comprehensive network with the Mediterranean, Orient/East-Med and Rhine-Danube CNCs. With respect to the neighbouring countries of Moldova and the 4 provinces of Ukraine, the information of the transport projects relied on the data collected from the Eastern Partnership regional transport study. At country level, all current national transport plans and strategies were surveyed.

On these bases, a stepwise screening process was conceived. The initial list of future transport projects was obtained through the application of preliminary selection criteria to a bulk of 279 projects. In a second step, general criteria for identification were introduced to shorten the long list to 85 projects. Third, the list was integrated with the information obtained conducting a preliminary stakeholders consultation, which ended with 108 projects. Then, filtering by criteria for selection, and again adapting to keep modal and geographical balances across the Functional Regions, the screening methodology resulted with a list of 51 pre-identified projects (of which, 21 plus 21 for road and rail, 6 for air and 3 for intermodal projects).

Projects fiches were prepared and presented to the relevant stakeholders, namely national transport ministries, infrastructures managers, regional organisation of SEETO, JASPERS and the TEN-T CNCs advisers. The consultation process aimed at (i) checking the correctness and relevance of the pre-identified projects for the countries involved, (ii) dropping those no longer in the pipelines and (iii) discussing of other projects deemed relevant at country level with the idea to enlarge the scope of the analysis to the national networks.

During the consultation process 36 out of 51 pre-identified projects were dropped and 8 new were identified, leaving a total of 23 future projects. As regards the motivations that led to take the decision to drop the projects from the pre-identified list, these were quite diverse: (i) non-revenue generating projects, (ii) implementation phase already started, (iii) EIB or other International Financing Institutions or third countries are already involved, (iv) project financed through other funding sources (i.e., private, CEF grants or Cohesion Fund), (v) insufficient or not disclosed information and (vi) not a priority at country level.


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4.2 The identified future transport projects

The 23 identified future transport projects (13 for road, 6 for rail and 4 for air) address a relatively broad scope of issues with respect to: existing bottlenecks, missing links, operational capacity and safety issues. 15 of these projects derives from the list of those pre-identified, while for the 8 new projects, 3 are on the TEN-T comprehensive network (i.e., 2 for road and 1 for rail) and 1 of the air mode on the Orient/East-Med CNC. Of the remaining 4, 1 is on the national road network of Hungary, 2 in the Western Balkans (i.e., 1 each for road and rail modes) and 1 for the air mode in the four provinces of Ukraine.

Table 4-1 summarises the identified future transport projects by Functional Region and transport mode. Figure 5-4 illustrates their geographical localisation in the region.

Table 4-1: Summary of future transport projects by FRs and modes

Functional Region

Total

of which

New non

CNCs3

Southern Germany and Western Austria 0 1 0 1 0 0

Eastern Austria and Slovenia 0 3 1 4 1 1

Czech Republic and Slovakia 1 0 0 1 0 0

Hungary 0 2 0 2 2 2

Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 1 0 2 0 0

Montenegro and Serbia 1 3 1 5 2 Not app.

Bulgaria 2 1 0 3 1 1

Western Romania 1 0 1 2 1 1

Eastern Romania, Moldova and Ukraine 0 2 1 3 1 Not app.

Total 6 13 4 23 8 5

Source: TRT elaboration

Even though some projects did not yet completed the feasibility study, overall the information is relatively good concerning general data and technical descriptions, while the availability of details about the implementation timeline depends on the project’s maturity. Demand analysis and forecasts are available for the majority of projects based on either key socio-economic parameters or modelling exercises, with projections elaborated approximately up to years 2025-2030.

The information about the financial and economic analyses is more limited. Some of the projects are free of charges for the final users and therefore the financial profitability analysis was not elaborated. Financial sustainability analysis is reported in few cases and also the information on funding mechanisms is limited (it is reported only when national budgets, CEF grants or other IFIs are involved).

The content of the environmental impacts assessment varies case-by-case, depending on the project and the national requirements.

It is important to underline that all information utilised for project identification and included in the project fiches were derived from official documents and checked by the countries.

4.2.1 The modal balance

The modal balance reflects the importance of road infrastructures, in the light of its dominant share of traffic. While the identified road projects foresee to the construction of new sections (i.e., missing links),

3 This category is not applicable for projects in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Moldova and Ukraine.

According to the assumed allocation of FRs, the territory of Eastern Romania is not crossed by TEN-T CNCs.


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rail projects address essentially rehabilitation and modernisation measures and air transport projects concern improvements solving operational efficiency and capacity limitations on both air and land sides.

The majority of the identified future projects foresee the development of sections of networks which are already operating. This could imply an advantage when compared to totally new ones as there would be (i) a lesser level of uncertainty when forecasting demand volumes, (ii) the chance to rely on previous estimations of investment and management costs and likely (iii) a more limited environmental impact (e.g., absence or low land acquisition needs and no interference with Natura 2000 and other designated sites at national level).

The development of existing road sections has been proposed not only to address future demand volumes, but also to tackle low technical standards and states of degradation of the infrastructures, which in turn influence the safety levels. Examples in this regard are the project to widen the A8 motorway from Munich to the German-Austrian border, the implementation phase of the third lane of the A4 motorway in Austria as well as the improvement of the M-14 road section from Balti to Criva in Moldova.

The construction of new road sections is a need emerged where the traffic is being forecasted more intense, and chiefly along strategic axes of the networks, or in correspondence of urban agglomerations, such as: the construction of dual-carriageway sections as continuation of the A5 North motorway in Austria, the construction of the Lot 3.2 of the Struma motorway in Bulgaria, the construction of two bypasses in Csorna and in Hajdúsámson in Hungary, the construction of section C of Belgrade bypass in Serbia and the bypass of Podgorica in Montenegro.

Two future road projects included in the list are worth of investigation and indeed have to develop a feasibility study. Firstly, the new motorway section Belgrade-Pančevo-Vršac to the Romanian border that would overlap the extension of the Orient/East-Med CNC on the SEETO comprehensive network. Secondly, the project of the Odessa-Reni highway which is a priority for Ukraine.

The four identified rail projects have a cross-border nature. Two of these are in Bulgaria. The project of rehabilitation of the line Ruse-Varna that would be consistent with the rehabilitation of the line Bucharest North-Giurgiu in Romania and would also be linked with the cross-border river port in Ruse (on the Danube river) and the seaport of Varna on the Black Sea. The modernisation of the railway section Volujak-Dragoman that would be in continuation with the reconstruction and electrification of the line Niš-Dimitrovgrad in Serbia.

The other two rail projects are in Croatia (modernisation of the railway line from Dugo Selo towards the Hungarian border) and in Slovakia (modernisation of the corridor from the Czech-Slovak border to Čadca and Krásno nad Kysucou).

The projects of the air mode include the investment for the Vienna airport runways layout and a mix of improvements with respect to (i) operational capacity on the air side (i.e., runway, taxiways and aprons), (ii) expansions of capacity on the land side to deal with forecasted demand volumes (i.e., terminal buildings) and (iii) modernisation of air navigation equipment for Tivat, Timisoara and four airports in Ukraine.

Despite the attempt to identify potential linkages amongst modes, intermodality did not result prominently if not for a few exceptions. The linkage with inland waterways exists for the river port of Ruse, potentially in connection with the modernisation of the adjacent railway lines Ruse-Varna and Bucharest North-Giurgiu, although this consideration would deserve further research, mindful that the ports with higher traffic are interested either by sea-river relations (i.e., the ports in Romania and Ukraine on the lower Danube river) or by more intense multimodal flows (i.e., the Austrian port of Linz on the upper Danube river).

4.2.2 The geographical coverage

The geographical coverage of the identified future projects is relatively balanced amongst the Functional Regions.


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The road projects are localised evenly, but in the Functional Regions of Czech Republic and Slovakia and Western Romania. Reflecting the need of interventions where rail networks still lack of appropriate technical standards and where demand volumes would be projected to growth at higher annual rates, the rail projects mostly concentrate in the Eastern part of the Danube Macro-Region. The localisation of air projects results from (i) the observed concentration of demand volumes (i.e., in the hub of Vienna) and (ii) the projected forecasts that would suggest more intense growth in the Eastern Functional Regions.

4.2.3 The transport network context

The distribution of the future projects in the transport network contexts is in line with the relevance of the CNCs that intersect the Danube Macro-Region; not surprisingly, the Rhine-Alpine and Scandinavian-Mediterranean are marginal.

The identified future projects localised in the Western Balkans Functional Region are on sections of Corridors Vc and X, the recent extensions of the TEN-T Orient/East-Med and Mediterranean CNCs.

Four projects are on the TEN-T comprehensive network: the construction of the second tube of the Karawanks tunnel (an important cross-border section between Austria and Slovenia connecting the Baltic-Adriatic and the Mediterranean CNCs), the construction of the Csorna bypass section in Hungary, the two adjacent rail sections Ruse-Varna in Bulgaria and Bucharest North-Giurgiu in Western Romania and the construction of the Hajdúsámson bypass in Hungary.

Importantly, five identified future transport projects are not on CNCs sections, indicating that also projects outside the CNCs are in the pipelines at national level and would deserve consideration for future development.

4.2.4 Final remarks

The 23 projects are representative of the types of transport problems the region is facing and or will face in the next future and are all considered relevant for the development of the transport sector in the Danube Macro-Region as they are derived from the long list of interventions proposed by the EC’s CNCs studies, SEETO Multi Annual Plans, updated REBIS, as well as the national transport plans and strategies, or directly proposed by the relevant consulted stakeholders developing the study.

They have been selected taking into account different criteria: the estimated investment costs, the timing of implementation, their ability to address bottlenecks or safety issues and their geographical and modal distribution. The analysis of this study renders a comprehensive description of the future projects identified, but limitations exist because the information available does not allow to address all the topics in a systematic manner.

The approach followed and the screening and data collected on all the projects proposed in the various studies, plans and strategies, could be a useful starting point if followed up with further and specific analyses, and could be easily repeated to create a lively pipeline of relevant projects for the region. The framework of the identified Functional Regions could provide additional guidance in this sense.

The projects fiches in form of both long and short versions could help in standardising the information provided across modes and countries, while the online interactive map prepared for this study has been designed to be updated with new future projects that will come out from stakeholders consultation.


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5 Maps and summary table of future transport projects


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Figure 5-1: TEN-T CNCs crossing the Danube Macro-Region



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Figure 5-2: TEN-T core and comprehensive networks of the Danube Macro-Region



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Figure 5-3: The identified Functional Regions of the Danube Macro-Region



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Table 5-1: High-level overview of the identified future transport projects

Functional Region Project Transport mode Pre-identified or new Transport network Type of project Critical issue Estimated cost

1 - Southern Germany and Western Austria

1.1 - Widening of A8 motorway South of Munich to the German-Austrian border

Road Pre-identified Rhine-Danube CNC Widening Bottleneck € 1,36 billion

2 - Eastern Austria and Slovenia

2.1 - Construction of the third lane on the A4 motorway (sections Fischamend-West Bruck and West Bruck-Neusiedl)

Road Pre-identified Rhine-Danube and the Orient/East-Med CNCs

Widening Safety € 244,7 million

2.2 - Construction of two dual-carriageway sections as continuation of the A5 North motorway

Road Pre-identified Baltic-Adriatic and the Orient/East-Med CNCs

New construction Missing link € 444 million

2.3 - Construction of a second tube for the Karawanks motorway tunnel

Road New (suggested by stakeholder) Comprehensive network (connecting Baltic-Adriatic and Mediterranean CNCs)

Construction of the second road tube of the tunnel

Bottleneck and safety € 317,1

2.4 - Construction of the third runway of the Vienna International Airport

Air Pre-identified Baltic-Adriatic CNC Construction of the third runway

Bottleneck € 1,2 billion

3 - Czech Republic and Slovakia

3.1 - Modernisation of the railway corridor State Border of the Czech Republic/Slovak Republic-Čadca-Krásno nad Kysucou

Rail Pre-identified Rhine-Danube CNC Modernisation Bottleneck (speed limitation due to strong slope)

€ 5,48 million for project design

4 - Hungary 4.1 - Construction of Csorna bypass section, motor road M86-M85 Road New (suggested by stakeholder) Comprehensive network New construction Missing link € 47,6 million

4.2 - Construction of Hajdúsámson bypass section, road 471 Road New (suggested by stakeholder) National network New construction Access to underdeveloped region

€ 33 million

5 - Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina

5.1 - Improvement of the road section Tarčin-Konjic of Corridor Vc Road Pre-identified SEETO Corridor Vc (on extension of Mediterranean CNC)

Improvement Corridor development € 469 million

5.2 - Modernisation of the railway line Dugo Selo-Hungarian border (sections Dugo Selo-Križevci and Križevci-state border)

Rail Pre-identified Mediterranean CNC Improvement Bottleneck and missing link

€ 492,1 million

6 - Montenegro and Serbia

6.1 - Construction of the Belgrade bypass - section C Road Pre-identified SEETO Corridor X (on extension of Orient/East-Med CNC)

New construction Missing link € 282 million

6.2 - Feasibility study of the motorway section Belgrade-Pancevo-Vrsac to Romania border

Road Pre-identified SEETO network New construction Missing link Not defined

6.3 - Reconstruction and electrification of the railway line Niš-Dimitrovgrad

Rail New (suggested by stakeholder) SEETO Network (Corridor Xc) Reconstruction and electrification

Bottleneck € 143,4 million

6.4 - Construction of the bypass of Podgorica Road New (suggested by stakeholder) SEETO network New construction Missing link € 280 million

6.5 - Tivat airport development Air Pre-identified SEETO network Modernisation Operational capacity € 55 million

7 - Bulgaria 7.1 - Rehabilitation of the Ruse-Varna railway line Rail New (suggested by stakeholder) Comprehensive network Rehabilitation Bottleneck € 383 million

7.2 - Modernisation of the railway line Volujak-Dragoman Rail Pre-identified Orient/East-Med CNC Modernisation Bottleneck € 168 million

7.3 - Construction of the Struma Motorway Lot 3.2 Road Pre-identified Orient/East-Med CNC Construction Low technical standards and congestion

Depending on the alignment alternative Do-minimum € 39 million Project alternatives € 283-812 million

8 - Western Romania 8.1 - Timisoara airport development Air New (updated CNC work plan) Orient/East-Med CNC Improvement Operational capacity € 78,3 million

8.2 - Rehabilitation of the railway line Bucharest North-Giurgiu Rail Pre-identified Comprehensive Network Rehabilitation Bottleneck (bridge collapsed)

€ 113 million

9 - Eastern Romania, Moldova and Ukraine

9.1 - Construction of the M-14 road section from Balti to Criva Road Pre-identified Strategic Eastern Partnership Improvement Poor conditions and safety

€ 133,6

9.2 - Development and modernisation of four airports Air New (suggested by stakeholder) Not applicable Development and modernisation

Operations efficiency, reliability and safety

€ 60,37 million

9.3 - Feasibility study of the construction of the highway Odessa-Reni Road Pre-identified Strategic Eastern Partnership New construction and reconstruction

Poor conditions To be properly defined



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Figure 5-4: Geographical localisation of the identified future transport projects



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END OF THE DOCUMENT

Documents

1 EIB Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region ... · Transport Study for the Danube Macro-Region – Executive Summary 3 2.4 The projections until 2030 The projections of key