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CAMELS

CAMELS PROJECT OVERVIEW

Motivation for CAMELS

Deliverables

Products

Structure

Peter Cox, Hadley Centre, Met Office

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CAMELS

Kyoto Sinks

Article 3.3 : “The net change in greenhouse gas emissions by sources

and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use

change and forestry activities, …… measured as verifiable changes …

shall be used to meet the commitments.”

Article 3.4 : “……each Party …… shall provide …… data to establish

its level of carbon stocks in 1990 and to enable an estimate to be

made of its changes in carbon stocks in subsequent years……”

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CAMELS

CAMELS and the Kyoto Protocol

Annex I countries are permitted to partially offset their emissions of CO2 by carbon accumulated due to forest

management and “additional human-induced” change in land-use and land management.

The related sources and sinks of CO2 must be reported in a

“transparent and verifiable manner”.

CAMELS will provide key support to EU countries in meeting their obligations under Kyoto.

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CAMELS

CAMELS Motivating Science Questions

Where are the current carbon sources and sinks located on the land and how do European sinks compare with other large continental areas?

 Why do these sources and sinks exist, i.e. what are the relative contributions of CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, climate variability, land management and land-use change?

How could we make optimal use of existing data sources and the latest models to produce operational estimates of the European land carbon sink?

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CAMELS

Inverse Modelling

Method : Use atmospheric transport model to infer CO2 sources and

sinks most consistent with atmospheric CO2 measurements.

Advantages : a) Large-scale; b) Data based (transparency).

Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (network too sparse); b) not

constrained by ecophysiological understanding; c) net CO2 flux only

(cannot isolate land management).

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CAMELS

Inverse Modelling - Uncertainties

Fan et al. (1998): 1.7 GtC/yr sink in North America.

Bousquet et al. (1999): 0.5 +/- 0.6 GtC/yr in North America, 1.3

GtC/yr in Siberia.

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CAMELS

Forward Modelling

Method : Build “bottom-up” process-based models of land and ocean

carbon uptake.

Advantages : a) Include physical and ecophysiological constraints; b)

Can isolate land-management effects; c) can be used predictively (not

just monitoring).

Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (gaps in process understanding); b) Do

not make optimal use of large-scale observational constraints.

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CAMELS

Forward Modelling - Land Uncertainties

Smoothed Mean and Standard Deviation of DGVM Predictions(Cramer et al., 2001)

Diagram from RoyalSoc. Sinks Report

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CAMELS

CAMELS Products

Best estimates and uncertainty bounds for the contemporary and historical land carbon sinks in Europe and elsewhere, isolating the effects of direct land-management.

A prototype carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS) exploiting existing data sources (e.g. flux measurements, carbon inventory data, satellite products) and the latest terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs), in order to produce operational estimates of “Kyoto sinks“.

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CAMELS

CAMELS Workpackages

WP1. Data Harmonisation and Consolidation (ALTERRA)

WP2. Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis (MPI-BGC)

WP3. Modelling of the 20th Century Land Carbon Balance (LSCE)

WP4. Development of a System for Carbon Data Assimilation (MetO)

WP5. Dissemination of Information (UNITUS)

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CAMELS

CAMELS Flow Diagram

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CAMELS

CAMELS Facts and figures

CAMELS is a key part of the CarboEurope cluster.

CAMELS involves a coordinator (Met Office), 8 contractors (CEA, MPI-BGC, ALTERRA, UNITUS, EFI, NERC, CNRS, JRC) and 1 subcontractor (FastOpt).

CAMELS will receive 1.4MEuro over 3 years from 1st Nov 2002-31st Oct 2005.

CAMELS will provide improved estimates or historical and contemporary land carbon sinks.

CAMELS will combine the best data sources and forward carbon models to produce a carbon cycle data assimilation system.

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CAMELS

CAMELS Deliverables 1

D1.1Biome-specific datasets to drive and validate TEMs.

Month 6 Da PU

D1.2Atmospheric CO2 dataset for use in

nowcasting system.

Month 9 Da PU

D1.3Land-use and nitrogen deposition historical datasets (1900-2000).

Month 12

Da PU

D1.4Datasets of recent change in European land carbon.

Month 15

Da PU

D1.5Dataset of fAPAR for Europe Month

18Da PU

D2.1Report on improved process representation in TEMs.

Month 18

Re PU

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CAMELS

CAMELS Deliverables 2

D2.2Biome-dependent ecosystem parameters plus uncertainty bounds for each TEM .

Month 24

Da PU

D3.1

Contemporary carbon stores and TEM parameters constrained by 20th century simulations.

Month 24

Si PU

D3.2

Simulations of the historical land carbon balance, with and without land-use change.

Month 30

Si PU

D3.3

Diagnosis of thecauses of the European land carbon sink in the context of the Kyoto Proto.

Month 36

Si PU

D4.1Report on design of nowcasting carbon data assimilation system.

Month 30

Re PU

D4.2Estimates of the contemporary European land carbon sink, and its causes.

Month 36

Si PU

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CAMELS

CAMELS Deliverables 3

D5.1Project website with a layered structure. Month 3 Pr PU

D5.2Online and ad hoc consultation to European Commission.

As Required

Expert Advice

CO

D5.3

Report on the estimation of the contemporary land carbon sink and its causes.

Month 36

Re Pu