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به نام خدا

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Milk Supply & Demand

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5.00%

15.30%

2.10%

8.40%

13.20%

10.50%

25.20%

16.10%

4.30%

Northern America

Europe EU-27

Africa

Asia Middle East

Southeast Asia

Central South America

Europe Other

Asia

Oceania

Milk Production (583,402,000 Tons)

Milk production

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

6,500 6,450 6,620 8,000 8,100

Fluid Milk Production , 1000 MT

EuropeNew ZealandUSAChinaIndiaIran

4

5

Export & import of dairy products

41%

8%

29%

1%

1% 5%

6%

7%

2%

Export market for dairy

New Zealand

Belarus

Argentina

Australia

Others

11%

17%

14%

7%11%0%

40%

Import market for dairy

SE AsiaOthers

India

MENA Mexico

Russia

ChinaU.S.

EU

Ukraine

Brazil

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

46.2545.24

50.62

Price of fresh milk based on farm gate (USD/100 Kg)

EuropeNew ZealandUSAIran

Price of fresh milk (farm gate)

In Iran, price of milk is based on fat: 3.2%

In other countries, price of milk is based on fat: 4.2%

6

7

European commission policies

Cap ReformExport

Subsidy Removing

Milk Quota

Expiration

2003 Till 20152007

8

Average annual rate of reduction in number of producers over period of quota implementation- EU 15

9

Export & import of cheese

41.88

22

16.5

6.35

5.08

4.91

3.28

Export market for cheese

EU-25

New Zea-land

Australia

U.S.

Ukraine

ArgentinaOthers

24.98%

19.98%

19.98%

8.75%

7.99%

5.09%

4.70%

2.50%

2.00%1.20%

1.00%1.83%

Import market for cheese

EU-25

Australia

Others

Egypt

Russia

Japan

U.S.

Mexico

Korea

Ukraine

Canada

Taiwan

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

Cheese Production & Consumption in Europe , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50100150200250300350

28 22 24 24 24

Cheese Production & Consumption in New Zealand, 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20114,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

Cheese Production & Consumption in USA, 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

Cheese production & consumption

10

11

Export & import of butter

25%

47%

17%

2% 9%

Export market for butter

EU

New Zealand

Australia

CanadaOthers

30%

6%

27%

10%

27%

Import market for butter

EURussia

Others

USAMex-ico

2007 2008 2009 2010 20111,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

Butter Production & Consumption in Europe , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100

200

300

400

500

600

26 23 18 20 20

Butter Production & Consumption in New Zealand, 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

Butter Production & Consumption in USA , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

Butter production & consumption

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13

Export & import of SMP

21%

20%

22%

11%

26%

Export market for SMP

USA

Others

7%

5%

6%

16%

66%

Import market for SMP

Others

Mex-ico

Russia

Japan

EU

EU

New Zealand

Australia

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

SMP Production , 1000 MT

EuropeNew ZealandUSAChinaIndia

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

5 1 1 3 3

SMP Consumption , 1000 MT

EuropeNew ZealandUSAChinaIndia

SMP production & consumption

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

SMP Production & Consumption in Europe , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50100150200250300350400450

5 1 1 3 3

SMP Production & Consumption in New Zealand, 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

SMP production & consumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1,000

SMP Production & Consumption in USA , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50

100

150

200

SMP Production & Consumption in China , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100

200

300

400

500

SMP Production & Consumption in India , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

15

16

Export & import of WMP

38%

35%

13%

1%

13%

Export market for WMP

EU

New Zealand

Aus-tralia

USA

2%

11%

7%

3%

77%

Import market for WMP

EUBrazil

Mexico

Rus-sia

Others

Others

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

14 23 27 32 35

WMP Production , 1000 MT

EuropeNew ZealandUSA

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

23 1536 29 32

WMP Consumption , 1000 MT

EuropeNew ZealandUSA

WMP production & consumption

17

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100200300400500600700800900

WMP Production & Consumption in Europe , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1 1 1 1 1

WMP Production & Consumption In New Zealand , 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

WMP production & consumption

2007 2008 2009 2010 201105

10152025303540

WMP Production & Consumption in USA, 1000 MT

ProductionConsumption

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Forecasted growth remains strong in emerging markets

Dairy consumption is expected to grow quickly in key emerging markets.

PROJECTED GROWTH IN WORLD NON-FLUID DAIRY CONSUMPTION (’2010-15)

MENA: "Middle East and North Africa"

SE: “South East"

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Dairy producers will almost certainly face high feed costs (relative to the previous 20 year average)

Producers and processors should reassess their cost structures to ensure competitiveness over the longer term

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Average commodity

prices ( cents/bu )

Corn

467

Wheat

616

Soy

991

1990-99

2000-09

2013F

AVERAGE COMMODITY PRICES (cents/bushel)

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In summary, the window of opportunity remains open and appears to be expanding

IMPORTERS

China

Russia

Southeast Asia, Mexico, MENA, India

EXPORTERS

Brazil

Ukraine

New Zealand

European Union

Australia, Argentina, Belarus

China shows continued growth in demand

Russia production dipped Potential low-cost producers such

as Brazil, Ukraine recently stumbled

New Zealand and EU, despite modest increases, unable to fill demand gap

Other sources—Argentina and Belarus—have good potential, but still relatively small

Net 2013 demand gap widened during the global economic downturn

Latent demand gap of 6.5-7B lbs. still exists, may be larger than estimated

Legend Impact on demand gap: Bigger gap Small change Smaller gap

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نتایج* پیOOOOش بیOنی میشOود کOه عرضOه شOیر ومحصOوالت لبOنی درجهOان ظOرف ده سOال آینOده بOه تOرتیب

O O O O O میلیOون تن کمOتر از تقاضOا بOOOاشد.4و 50

* بOا توجOه بOه افOزایش قیمت داده هOای دامی بOه نظOر میرسOد هزینOه تولیOد شOیر همچنOان بOه O دOOOOرون

صعودی خویش ادامه خواهد داد. * بOا ارتقOاء مOدیریت تولیOد بتOدریج منOOOOOاطق تولیOد شOیر بOا بهOره وری کمOتر جOای خOویش را

بOه منOاطق بOا بOازدهی ببشOتر خواهOد داد. و جهOانی شOدن اقOOOOOOتصاد ، بOه نظOر میرسOد کOه مرزبنOدی رقOابتی جOایگزین WTO * بOا توجOه بOه

O .د شدOخواهO حمایتی Oمرزبندی * تنهOا بOا نگOاه بOه کOل چرخOه شOیر میتOوان برنOOOOامه ای بOرای حOل مشOکالت آن درکشOور ارائOه

داد. * چرخOه شیOOOOOOر از خOاک و آب شOروع و بOه سOفره مصOرف کننOده منتهی میگOردد تنهOا راه حلی

O O پایOدارتر خواهOد بOود کOه بتوانOد تمOامی چرخه را مد نظر داشته باشد.

* بOا توجOه بOه شOرایط رقOابتی موجOود در بOازار جهOانی بنظOر میرسOد تنهOا صOنایعی پایOدار خواهنOد مOاند

کOه مبنOOOOOOOای محاسOباتی پOروژه هOای خOویش را براسOOOOOOاس بOازار آزاد و نOه برپایOه حمOایت هOای

دولتی بگذارند.

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Thank you for your attention

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION