:-):-)

Yes, upon popular demand: Yes, upon popular demand: Next quiz: Friday Next quiz: Friday January 14 (chapters 9 and 10)January 14 (chapters 9 and 10)

After that: Wednesday January 19 (12 to 14) – After that: Wednesday January 19 (12 to 14) – possibly or on final (more likely)possibly or on final (more likely)

Make up classes – see you tomorrow Make up classes – see you tomorrow Thursday January 13 – 12.45 to 1.45 pm (Khoury Thursday January 13 – 12.45 to 1.45 pm (Khoury

309)309) Thursday January 20 – 12.15 – 2.00 pm (film Thursday January 20 – 12.15 – 2.00 pm (film

starts at 12.30) – Hariri Auditoriumstarts at 12.30) – Hariri Auditorium. Film: The . Film: The End of the Line (2009)End of the Line (2009)

04/20/231

Homework to all – on Homework to all – on the webthe web

(1) How do I personally contribute to climate change? (examine your lifestyle — from your diet to your (1) How do I personally contribute to climate change? (examine your lifestyle — from your diet to your consumption to your home). Note: To answer this question, you should examine your ‘footprint.’ What consumption to your home). Note: To answer this question, you should examine your ‘footprint.’ What is an ecological footprint. As explained by the Happy Planet Index, “[t]he ecological footprint of an is an ecological footprint. As explained by the Happy Planet Index, “[t]he ecological footprint of an individual is a measure of the amount of land required to provide for all their resource requirements individual is a measure of the amount of land required to provide for all their resource requirements plus the amount of vegetated land required to sequester (absorb) all their CO2 emissions and the CO2 plus the amount of vegetated land required to sequester (absorb) all their CO2 emissions and the CO2 emissions embodied in the products they consume. This figure is expressed in units of ‘global emissions embodied in the products they consume. This figure is expressed in units of ‘global hectares’. The advantage of this approach is that it is possible to estimate the total amount of hectares’. The advantage of this approach is that it is possible to estimate the total amount of productive hectares available on the planet. Dividing this by the world’s total population, we can productive hectares available on the planet. Dividing this by the world’s total population, we can calculate a global per capita figure on the basis that everyone is entitled to the same amount of the calculate a global per capita figure on the basis that everyone is entitled to the same amount of the planet’s natural resources.”planet’s natural resources.”

So, to answer question (1), go to one  The Global Footprint Network website So, to answer question (1), go to one  The Global Footprint Network website (http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/), and read the information they have, and then (http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/), and read the information they have, and then you can go to one of the following sites:  The Ecological Footprint Quiz (here), or The Global Footprint you can go to one of the following sites:  The Ecological Footprint Quiz (here), or The Global Footprint Network (and assume we live in Turkey), or go to the website of the World Wildlife Fund and spend 5 Network (and assume we live in Turkey), or go to the website of the World Wildlife Fund and spend 5 minutes calculating the information (here) – but keep in mind that that calculation is designed for folks minutes calculating the information (here) – but keep in mind that that calculation is designed for folks living in the UK so some of the questions won’t apply to you. There are other sites, of course. The links living in the UK so some of the questions won’t apply to you. There are other sites, of course. The links I provided are a selection of those sites.  One other avenue you may use is an excel sheet to calculate I provided are a selection of those sites.  One other avenue you may use is an excel sheet to calculate your footprint with more accuracy and detail. Go here: http://www.google.com/search?your footprint with more accuracy and detail. Go here: http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=ecological+footprint+xls&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 client=safari&rls=en&q=ecological+footprint+xls&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

(2) What will I actually change in my behavior?(2) What will I actually change in my behavior?

(3) Assuming I have ultimate power in the world, what new world would I create? What is my vision for (3) Assuming I have ultimate power in the world, what new world would I create? What is my vision for a healthier world — healthier from an environmental perspective, recognizing that the environment a healthier world — healthier from an environmental perspective, recognizing that the environment cannot be separated from the economy and from our philosophies.cannot be separated from the economy and from our philosophies.

2 04/20/23

HomeworkHomework To all:To all:

““Me and Climate Change”Me and Climate Change” Due January 17Due January 17

To those of you who gave Homework 15 to To those of you who gave Homework 15 to 20%20% Summarize one peer-reviewed article from the Summarize one peer-reviewed article from the

scientific literature on the topic of ‘impact of scientific literature on the topic of ‘impact of climate change on…?’ The article must be NO climate change on…?’ The article must be NO older than 2007. Include the article with your older than 2007. Include the article with your summary.summary.

Due January 21Due January 21 John (15%); Mustafa (20%); Omar (15%); Joelle John (15%); Mustafa (20%); Omar (15%); Joelle

(15%)(15%)3 04/20/23

Chapter 10 - continuedChapter 10 - continued

04/20/234

Gradients of species Gradients of species richnessrichness

Habitat area and remoteness: Island Habitat area and remoteness: Island biogeographybiogeography

Latitudinal gradientsLatitudinal gradients

Gradients with altitude and depthGradients with altitude and depth

Gradients during community successionGradients during community succession

5 04/20/23

Island biogeographyIsland biogeography

• Number of species on islands decreases as Number of species on islands decreases as island area decreases. island area decreases. Species-area Species-area relationshiprelationship

• What is an island?What is an island?• Islands of land in a sea of waterIslands of land in a sea of water• Lakes - Islands in a sea of landLakes - Islands in a sea of land• Mountaintops – high altitude islands in a low Mountaintops – high altitude islands in a low

altitude oceanaltitude ocean• Gaps in a forest canopy – island in a sea of treesGaps in a forest canopy – island in a sea of trees• Islands of particular geological types, soil types, Islands of particular geological types, soil types,

or vegetation typesor vegetation types

6 04/20/23

Island biogeographyIsland biogeography

• Species-area relationships: one of the Species-area relationships: one of the most consistent of all ecological patternsmost consistent of all ecological patterns

• Is the impoverishment of species on Is the impoverishment of species on islands more than would be expected in islands more than would be expected in comparably small areas of mainland?comparably small areas of mainland?

• Why do larger areas contain more species?Why do larger areas contain more species?• Encompass more different types of habitat – Encompass more different types of habitat –

not enough of an explanationnot enough of an explanation• Island size and isolation: number of species Island size and isolation: number of species

on an island determined by a balance on an island determined by a balance between immigration and extinction; this between immigration and extinction; this balance is dynamic; and extinction rates may balance is dynamic; and extinction rates may vary with island size and isolationvary with island size and isolation

7 04/20/23

Island biogeographyIsland biogeography

1.1. The number of species on an island should The number of species on an island should eventually become roughly constant through timeeventually become roughly constant through time

2.2. This should be a result of continual turnover of This should be a result of continual turnover of species, with some becoming extinct and others species, with some becoming extinct and others immigratingimmigrating

3.3. Large islands should support more species than Large islands should support more species than small islandssmall islands

4.4. Species number should decline with the increasing Species number should decline with the increasing remoteness of an islandremoteness of an island

- MacArthur and Wilson’s theory’s predictions- MacArthur and Wilson’s theory’s predictions

8 04/20/23

Latitudinal gradientsLatitudinal gradients Increase in Increase in

species richness species richness from the poles from the poles to the tropicsto the tropics

Why?Why?

No clear No clear explanation.explanation.

Latitudinal Latitudinal gradient gradient intertwines intertwines components components previously previously discussed…discussed…

9 04/20/23

Gradients with altitude Gradients with altitude and depthand depth

• Decrease in species richness with altitude – akin Decrease in species richness with altitude – akin to that observed with latitude - -in terrestrial to that observed with latitude - -in terrestrial environmentsenvironments

• Other studies: increase with altitude; other Other studies: increase with altitude; other studies: hump-shaped patternsstudies: hump-shaped patterns

• Productivity and temperature? Productivity and Productivity and temperature? Productivity and growing season? Stress with extremes?growing season? Stress with extremes?

• In aquatic environments: change in species In aquatic environments: change in species richness with depth strongly similar to terrestrial richness with depth strongly similar to terrestrial gradient with altitudegradient with altitude

10 04/20/23

Skip – patterns in taxon richness in the Skip – patterns in taxon richness in the fossil recordfossil record

11 04/20/23

SummarySummary

Richness and Richness and diversitydiversity

Productivity and Productivity and resource diversityresource diversity

Predation intensityPredation intensity Spatial Spatial

heterogeneityheterogeneity Environmental Environmental

harshnessharshness

Climatic variationClimatic variation DisturbanceDisturbance Environmental ageEnvironmental age Island biogeographyIsland biogeography Gradients in species Gradients in species

richnessrichness

12 04/20/23

SustainabilitSustainabilityy

- Extra readings for this - Extra readings for this chapterchapter

sustainabilitysustainability

What is sustainability?What is sustainability?

In the foreseeable future? What about In the foreseeable future? What about uncertainties?uncertainties?

Will there always be a technological fix?Will there always be a technological fix?

Jevons ParadoxJevons Paradox

Sustainability: encompasses economic and social Sustainability: encompasses economic and social and ecological conditionsand ecological conditions

We are not separate from nature; we are a part of We are not separate from nature; we are a part of naturenature

04/20/2314

Human populationHuman population

What is the human population problem?What is the human population problem?

What do we need to know to answer the What do we need to know to answer the question: how many people can the Earth question: how many people can the Earth support?support?

04/20/2315

Human populationHuman population Growth to present: more than exponentialGrowth to present: more than exponential

If exponential growth, rate of increase per individual If exponential growth, rate of increase per individual is constant. Population as a whole grows at an is constant. Population as a whole grows at an accelerating rate because the pop growth rate is a accelerating rate because the pop growth rate is a product of the individual rate (constant) and the product of the individual rate (constant) and the accelerating number of individualsaccelerating number of individuals

Remember intraspecific competition: rate of increase Remember intraspecific competition: rate of increase per population decreases as population size per population decreases as population size increases!increases!

Human pop: individual rate of increase has been Human pop: individual rate of increase has been increasing! More than exponential growth – increasing! More than exponential growth – unsustainable soonerunsustainable sooner

04/20/2316

04/20/2317

04/20/2318

Human populationHuman population

1.1. Present size of global human population is Present size of global human population is unsustainably high. ~ 6.867,040,600 (as of 11.37 unsustainably high. ~ 6.867,040,600 (as of 11.37 am today)am today)

2.2. Not the size but the distribution over the Earth Not the size but the distribution over the Earth that is unsustainable. Urbanized pop: ~ 50% that is unsustainable. Urbanized pop: ~ 50% (1800: 3%; 1950: 29%; 2000: 47%)(1800: 3%; 1950: 29%; 2000: 47%)

3.3. Rate of growth rate is unsustainable. Before Rate of growth rate is unsustainable. Before agricultural revolution of the 18agricultural revolution of the 18thth century, human century, human pop doubled every 1000 years. Now: 39 yearspop doubled every 1000 years. Now: 39 years

4.4. Not the size but age distributionNot the size but age distribution

5.5. Not the size but uneven distribution of resources.Not the size but uneven distribution of resources.

04/20/2319

A note on that 18A note on that 18thth agricultural revolutionagricultural revolution

Justus von Liebig, ‘Organic Chemistry in its Justus von Liebig, ‘Organic Chemistry in its Application to Agriculture and Physiology,’ 1862 Application to Agriculture and Physiology,’ 1862 editionedition

‘‘high farming’ of British agriculturehigh farming’ of British agriculture Transportation over long distances of food and fiber Transportation over long distances of food and fiber

from the country to the city – with no provision for from the country to the city – with no provision for the recirculation of social nutrients, such as nitrogen, the recirculation of social nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, which ended up phosphorus and potassium, which ended up contributing to urban waste and pollution in the form contributing to urban waste and pollution in the form of human and animal wastes [Foster, Ecological of human and animal wastes [Foster, Ecological Revolution, 2009]Revolution, 2009]

Imperial policy of robbing the soil resourcesImperial policy of robbing the soil resources

04/20/2320

Industrial, imperial Industrial, imperial agricultureagriculture

Liebig…Liebig… ““Great Britain deprives all countries of the conditions of their Great Britain deprives all countries of the conditions of their

fertility. It has raked up the battlefields of Leipsic, Waterloo fertility. It has raked up the battlefields of Leipsic, Waterloo and the Crimea; it has consumed the bones of many and the Crimea; it has consumed the bones of many generations accumulated in the catacombs of Sicily; and now generations accumulated in the catacombs of Sicily; and now annually destroys the food for a future generation of three annually destroys the food for a future generation of three million and a half of people. Like a vampire it hangs on the million and a half of people. Like a vampire it hangs on the breast of Europe, and even the world, sucking it lifeblood breast of Europe, and even the world, sucking it lifeblood without any real necessity or permanent gain for itself.”without any real necessity or permanent gain for itself.”

Industrialized capitalist agriculture maintained by importing Industrialized capitalist agriculture maintained by importing guano (bird droppings) from Peru and bones from Europeguano (bird droppings) from Peru and bones from Europe Guano imports increased from 1,700 tons in 1841 to 220,000 Guano imports increased from 1,700 tons in 1841 to 220,000

tons only 6 years later!tons only 6 years later!

Law of restitution – main principle of rational agriculture - Law of restitution – main principle of rational agriculture - forgottenforgotten

04/20/2321

Predicting the futurePredicting the future

Projection vs predictionProjection vs prediction Projection – an estimate; a forecast - based on the status of Projection – an estimate; a forecast - based on the status of

today, assuming that things will go on in the future as they today, assuming that things will go on in the future as they have in the pasthave in the past

Prediction – requires an understanding of what has happened Prediction – requires an understanding of what has happened in the past and how the present is different from the pastin the past and how the present is different from the past

Remember: global pop = smaller populations + smaller Remember: global pop = smaller populations + smaller populations etcpopulations etc

Demographic transitionsDemographic transitions Birth and death rate: high; birth rate only slightly > death. So?Birth and death rate: high; birth rate only slightly > death. So? Death rate declines; birth rate stays high. So?Death rate declines; birth rate stays high. So? Birth rate also declines; = or < death rate. So?Birth rate also declines; = or < death rate. So? Why these changes?Why these changes?

04/20/2322

This (past) unique decade This (past) unique decade (2000-2010)(2000-2010)

1.1. Old > youngOld > young

2.2. Urban > ruralUrban > rural

3.3. Women: fewer children; just enough to Women: fewer children; just enough to replace themselves and the father in the replace themselves and the father in the next generationnext generation

Why?Why?

04/20/2323

Population growth in the Population growth in the Arab worldArab world

04/20/2324

Actual and projected population growth Actual and projected population growth

of the Arab region (millions)of the Arab region (millions)

Source: UN-ESCWA 2001

Decrease in fertility Decrease in fertility ratesrates

Source: UNFPA data

Population growth Population growth (actual and projected) (actual and projected) (millions)(millions)

Source: UN Population Division. 2002 Revision. World Population Prospects

Rural to Urban migration Rural to Urban migration (1961-(1961-2003)2003)

Source: World Bank data

Rural to Urban migration Rural to Urban migration (1961, (1961, 1980, 2003)1980, 2003)

Source: World Bank data

Rural to Urban Migration Rural to Urban Migration (1961, 1980, 2003)(1961, 1980, 2003)

Population densityPopulation density (inhabitant per (inhabitant per km2) (2006) km2) (2006)

Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint (gha/person)(gha/person)

Source: WWF 2006

2 future inevitabilities2 future inevitabilities

If b = d, then is the population problem solved?If b = d, then is the population problem solved?

1 – age structure1 – age structure Either: few young to take care of many oldEither: few young to take care of many old Or: many young still reproducingOr: many young still reproducing

2 – pop growth has its own momentum. Even 2 – pop growth has its own momentum. Even with b = d, many years before a stable age with b = d, many years before a stable age structure were establishedstructure were established

World’s population is expected to grow from World’s population is expected to grow from 6.3 billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion in 20506.3 billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion in 2050

04/20/2333

Global carrying Global carrying capacity?capacity?

Given that no population can grow forever [why?]Given that no population can grow forever [why?]

Finite space. Finite resources.Finite space. Finite resources.

Variation in the estimates since 1970: from 1 billion to Variation in the estimates since 1970: from 1 billion to 1,000 billion!1,000 billion!

De Wit (1976): how many people can live on Earth if De Wit (1976): how many people can live on Earth if photosynthesis is the limiting process? -> 1,000 billion. photosynthesis is the limiting process? -> 1,000 billion. Assumed that water and minerals are not limiting! And Assumed that water and minerals are not limiting! And assumed a vegetarian (vegan?), minimalistic lifestyleassumed a vegetarian (vegan?), minimalistic lifestyle

Hulett (1970): if we all live like the US, including food, Hulett (1970): if we all live like the US, including food, renewable and non-renewable resources, renewable and non-renewable resources, 1 billion 1 billion

Kates (1988): assumed vegetarian diet – 5.9 billion; 15% Kates (1988): assumed vegetarian diet – 5.9 billion; 15% animal products caloric intake: 3.9 billion; 25% - 2.9 billionanimal products caloric intake: 3.9 billion; 25% - 2.9 billion

04/20/2334

9.5 billion?9.5 billion?

04/20/2335

Have we already Have we already passed it?passed it?

Wackernagel (2002):Wackernagel (2002): 1961: people were using 70% of the biosphere’s 1961: people were using 70% of the biosphere’s

capacitycapacity 1999: people were using 120%1999: people were using 120% Thus: global carrying capacity exceeded when our Thus: global carrying capacity exceeded when our

population turned 6 billionpopulation turned 6 billion

Read the living planet (must read it for the final Read the living planet (must read it for the final exam)exam)

Gandhi: there is enough for people’s need, but not Gandhi: there is enough for people’s need, but not enough for people’s greed.enough for people’s greed.

We need the concept of “enough.’We need the concept of “enough.’

04/20/2336

““Harvesting” living Harvesting” living resources from the wildresources from the wild

FisheriesFisheries Same logic to be discussed applies to all Same logic to be discussed applies to all

harvesting of any natural resource – from fish harvesting of any natural resource – from fish to trees to soil nutrientsto trees to soil nutrients

Re-read the excerpt from ‘eating animals’ Re-read the excerpt from ‘eating animals’ regarding fishregarding fish

04/20/2337

fisheriesfisheries

OverexploitationOverexploitation

Figure 12.5Figure 12.5

04/20/2338

Global marine fish Global marine fish harvestingharvesting

04/20/2339

fisheriesfisheries

OverexploitationOverexploitation

Integrate all that we have learned about Integrate all that we have learned about populations (remember chapter 5)populations (remember chapter 5)

1.1. Populations in the absence of exploitation can Populations in the absence of exploitation can be expected to settle around their carrying be expected to settle around their carrying capacity; exploitation will reduce their numberscapacity; exploitation will reduce their numbers

2.2. Exploitation, by reducing the intensity of Exploitation, by reducing the intensity of competition, increases the net number of competition, increases the net number of recruits to the population per unit time (Figure recruits to the population per unit time (Figure 12.6)12.6)

04/20/2340

Pop size Pop size increasincreases from es from right to right to leftleft

IncreasinIncreasing rates g rates of of exploitexploitation ation take take pop pop from from right to right to leftleft

04/20/2341

MSY: max sustainable MSY: max sustainable yieldyield

MSY: largest harvest (# of individuals killed) that can MSY: largest harvest (# of individuals killed) that can be removed from the pop regularly and indefinitely.be removed from the pop regularly and indefinitely.

Problems…Problems…

1.1. Treat pop as number of similar individuals…ignores Treat pop as number of similar individuals…ignores size, age class, and differential rates of growth, size, age class, and differential rates of growth, survival and reproductionsurvival and reproduction

2.2. Treats environment as unvaryingTreats environment as unvarying

3.3. Practice: impossible to obtain a reliable estimate. Practice: impossible to obtain a reliable estimate. Why?Why?

4.4. Does not consider other criterions for management. Does not consider other criterions for management. Such as?Such as?

04/20/2342

MSY – thru fixed MSY – thru fixed quotas/effortsquotas/efforts

Fixed quota or fixed effortFixed quota or fixed effort

Fixed quota: same amount removed every year. Fixed quota: same amount removed every year. Problem?Problem?

Frequently used. Frequently used.

Fixed effort: constant harvesting effort (number Fixed effort: constant harvesting effort (number of ‘trawler-days’; number of ‘gun-days’of ‘trawler-days’; number of ‘gun-days’

Beyond MSYs: Know the Peruvian anchovy Beyond MSYs: Know the Peruvian anchovy example.example.

04/20/2343

nownow

2/3 of the world’s major fish stocks are 2/3 of the world’s major fish stocks are currently being fished at or above capacitycurrently being fished at or above capacity

In the past 50 years, more than 90% of large In the past 50 years, more than 90% of large predatory fish have been eliminated.predatory fish have been eliminated.

Source: Worldwatch, Vital Signs 2005, Source: Worldwatch, Vital Signs 2005, www.worldwatch.orgwww.worldwatch.org

-- re-read excerpt from ‘eating animals’-- re-read excerpt from ‘eating animals’

04/20/2344

Read the article Read the article

04/20/2345

Farming of Farming of monoculturesmonocultures

What is a monoculture?What is a monoculture?

““Only monoculture can maximize the rate of Only monoculture can maximize the rate of food production. This is because it allows the food production. This is because it allows the farmer to control and optimize with high farmer to control and optimize with high precision the density of the populations, the precision the density of the populations, the quantity and quality of their resources and quantity and quality of their resources and often even the physical condition of often even the physical condition of temperature and humidity.”temperature and humidity.”

True?True?

details…detailsdetails…details

04/20/2346

monoculturesmonocultures

(1) Disease?(1) Disease?

(2) Waste?(2) Waste?

(3) Climate Change? Resilience?(3) Climate Change? Resilience?

(4) Input from where? [Remember England](4) Input from where? [Remember England]

(5) Centralization? Pressure? [Wikileaks](5) Centralization? Pressure? [Wikileaks]

(6) Where is the food going actually?(6) Where is the food going actually?

04/20/2347

04/20/2348

04/20/2349

04/20/2350

Alternative: Agro-Alternative: Agro-EcologyEcology

The application of ecology to the design and The application of ecology to the design and management of sustainable agroecosystems.management of sustainable agroecosystems.

A whole-systems approach to agriculture and A whole-systems approach to agriculture and food systems development based on traditional food systems development based on traditional knowledge, alternative agriculture, and local knowledge, alternative agriculture, and local food system experiences.food system experiences.

Linking ecology, culture, economics, and Linking ecology, culture, economics, and society to sustain agricultural production, society to sustain agricultural production, healthy environments, and viable food and healthy environments, and viable food and farming communities. farming communities.

04/20/2351

Agro-EcologyAgro-Ecology

http://agroecology.org/CaseStudies.htmlhttp://agroecology.org/CaseStudies.html

Read one of the case studies. Be able to Read one of the case studies. Be able to discuss it.discuss it.

04/20/2352

Soil degradationSoil degradation

10% of the earth’s vegetated surface – moderately 10% of the earth’s vegetated surface – moderately degradeddegraded

Renewable?Renewable?

Remember the dust bowl in 1930s in the US?Remember the dust bowl in 1930s in the US?

““China…the need to feed 1.3 billion people has led to the China…the need to feed 1.3 billion people has led to the raising of too many cattle and sheep, and the use of too raising of too many cattle and sheep, and the use of too many plows. This is more than the land can stand…many plows. This is more than the land can stand…2300km2 are turning to desert each year.”2300km2 are turning to desert each year.”

According to the second national soil erosion remote-According to the second national soil erosion remote-sensing survey in 2000, the area affected by wind erosion sensing survey in 2000, the area affected by wind erosion was 1.91 million kmwas 1.91 million km22, accounting for 20% of the total land , accounting for 20% of the total land area in China. (Wang et al, 2006)area in China. (Wang et al, 2006)

04/20/2353

China’s dust bowlChina’s dust bowl

04/20/2354

China’s dust bowlChina’s dust bowlDrought + diet + irrational agriculture + Drought + diet + irrational agriculture +

economic-short-term + deforestation economic-short-term + deforestation

04/20/2355

Rational agriculture Rational agriculture pleaseplease

““Field studies suggest that soil losses by Field studies suggest that soil losses by wind erosion can be reduced by up to 79% wind erosion can be reduced by up to 79% when farmers shift from conventional soil when farmers shift from conventional soil tillage methods to no-till.” (Wang et al, tillage methods to no-till.” (Wang et al, 2006)2006)

04/20/2356

China – dust stormChina – dust storm

China - 70% of the cashmere comes from ChinaChina - 70% of the cashmere comes from China

The name cashmere originates from the Kashmiri The name cashmere originates from the Kashmiri goats of the Himalayas. Cashmere wool is the downy goats of the Himalayas. Cashmere wool is the downy undercoat that grows from midsummer to winter in undercoat that grows from midsummer to winter in varying quality by all goats. Long guard hair protects varying quality by all goats. Long guard hair protects the cashmere undercoat from the elements and is the cashmere undercoat from the elements and is removed in the spring by shearing or gradually removed in the spring by shearing or gradually combing the hair to remove the down. Each goat combing the hair to remove the down. Each goat produces 3 to 8 ounces of cashmere down per year produces 3 to 8 ounces of cashmere down per year and the average single-ply women's sweater requires and the average single-ply women's sweater requires the wool of 3 or 4 goats or approximately 10 ounces of the wool of 3 or 4 goats or approximately 10 ounces of wool. The quality of the wool is defined by the length, wool. The quality of the wool is defined by the length, texture, and diameter of the fibers. These quality texture, and diameter of the fibers. These quality standards are affected by the climate in which the standards are affected by the climate in which the goats are raised and the nutrients that they consume.goats are raised and the nutrients that they consume.

04/20/2357

04/20/2358

Agriculture - ecology – sociology – Agriculture - ecology – sociology – economics – international and national economics – international and national affairs affairs

““China’s appetite”China’s appetite”

OrOr

Our appetite?Our appetite?

04/20/2359

Sustainability of water as Sustainability of water as a resourcea resource

Water: finiteWater: finite

Increasing demand; decreasing supply; Increasing demand; decreasing supply; increasing contamination; management increasing contamination; management (dams -> silt accumulation)(dams -> silt accumulation)

04/20/2360

WATER FACTS

• Demand for and use of freshwater has tripled over the past half century, as world population has grown from 2.5 to 6.45 billion people

Sources: Asian Development Bank; BBC; Earth Observatory; UNEP; UNESCO

• Of the 0.5% useable freshwater, irrigation accounts for 70%, industry 20% and household 10%

• Experts predict that by 2025 global water needs will increase with 40% more required for cities and 20% for growing crops

• The satellite photos show major freshwater depletion taking place on all continents, notably in the Dead Sea, the Aral Sea, Lake Chad, the Mesopotamian Marshlands, the Everglades and other water sources • According to UNESCO estimates, by 2030 global demands for fresh water will exceed the supply with potentially disastrous consequences

• Of total world water, 97.5% is salty water and only 2.5% is freshwater of which useable freshwater accounts for about 0.5%

WATER FACTS

• Water withdrawals are causing major rivers—such as the Colorado, the Nile, the Yellow Rivers—to run dry, lakes to vanish and groundwater tables and aquifers to drop almost everywhere

• In 2002, around 3.16 billion people (82%) in the Asia Pacific region had access to improved water supplies, up from 74% in 1990

Sources: Asian Development Bank; BBC; Earth Observatory; UNEP; UNESCO

• Over the next 20 years, average water supply per person is estimated to drop by a third, endangering human health, agriculture and the environment

• Water pollution is a serious threat to the world’s water supply

• Water volume in the Aral sea has dropped by about 80% since 1960s, due to extensive irrigation primarily for cotton production• Current water levels in Lake Victoria are below normal and the lowest level since September 1961

Arab Population % Without Access Arab Population % Without Access to Safe Drinking Water in Arab to Safe Drinking Water in Arab

RegionRegion

Shrinking Lake ChadNigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon

Persistent drought has shrunk the lake to about a tenth of its former size• 1972: Larger lake surface area is visible in this image

• 2001: Impact of drought displays a shrunken lake, comparatively much smaller surface area than in 1972 image

On March 20, 2000 a group of monkeys, driven mad with thirst, clashed with desperate villagers over drinking water in a small outpost in northern Kenya near the border with Sudan. The Pan African News Agency reported that eight monkeys were killed and 10 villagers were injured in what was described as a fierce two-hour melee. The fight erupted when relief workers began dispensing water from a tanker truck. Locals claimed that a prolonged drought had forced animals to roam out of their natural habitats to seek life-giving water in human settlements. The monkeys were identified as generally harmless vervets.

““pest” controlpest” control

What is a pest species?What is a pest species?

Another problematic statement in the book: “economics and Another problematic statement in the book: “economics and sustainability are intimately tied together. Market forces sustainability are intimately tied together. Market forces ensure that uneconomic practices are not sustainable.”ensure that uneconomic practices are not sustainable.”

EIL – economic injury level: does not “pay” to reduce it furtherEIL – economic injury level: does not “pay” to reduce it further

Economic threshold – density of the pest at which action Economic threshold – density of the pest at which action should be taken to prevent it reaching the EILshould be taken to prevent it reaching the EIL

Target pest resurgence: ‘treatment’ kills both large numbers Target pest resurgence: ‘treatment’ kills both large numbers of the pest and large large numbers of their natural enemiesof the pest and large large numbers of their natural enemies

Secondary pests: pesticide could cause potential pests to Secondary pests: pesticide could cause potential pests to become real pests. How?become real pests. How?

Resistance. Increased pesticide usage + increased resistanceResistance. Increased pesticide usage + increased resistance

04/20/2366

Anthropod pest species – Anthropod pest species – resistant to pesticidesresistant to pesticides

04/20/2367

pesticidespesticides

““If chemical pesticides brought nothing but If chemical pesticides brought nothing but problems, however – if their use was intrinsically problems, however – if their use was intrinsically and acutely unsustainable – then they would and acutely unsustainable – then they would already have fallen out of widespread use. …already have fallen out of widespread use. …Their rate of production has increased rapidly.”Their rate of production has increased rapidly.”

Problems in that statement?Problems in that statement?

““In the USA, insecticides have been estimated In the USA, insecticides have been estimated to benefit the agricultural producer to the tune to benefit the agricultural producer to the tune of ~ $5 for every $1 spent.” (Pimental et al, of ~ $5 for every $1 spent.” (Pimental et al, 1978)1978)

04/20/2368

Toxicologists: guided by Toxicologists: guided by 3 principles3 principles

Principle 1Principle 1 In terms of measuring chemicals - you only find what you are looking for, In terms of measuring chemicals - you only find what you are looking for,

and only if it is present in sufficient quantity to be detected by the method and only if it is present in sufficient quantity to be detected by the method used to measure it.used to measure it.

Principle 2Principle 2 The dose makes the poison! Paracelsus (1493-1541) is credited with this The dose makes the poison! Paracelsus (1493-1541) is credited with this

dictum when he wrote, “All substances are poisons, there is none which is dictum when he wrote, “All substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison and a remedy.” not a poison. The right dose differentiates a poison and a remedy.”

Exposure is the magnitude, duration, and frequency with which Exposure is the magnitude, duration, and frequency with which organisms interact with biologically available toxicants.organisms interact with biologically available toxicants.

Principle 3Principle 3

““No instrument has yet been devised that can measure toxicity. No instrument has yet been devised that can measure toxicity. Chemical concentrations can be measured with an instrument but only Chemical concentrations can be measured with an instrument but only living material can be used to measure toxicity.” living material can be used to measure toxicity.”

John Cairns, Jr. and D.I. Mount, 199, Environmental Science and TechnologyJohn Cairns, Jr. and D.I. Mount, 199, Environmental Science and Technology

Pesticides…Pesticides…

Rachel Carson: Silent SpringRachel Carson: Silent Spring ““"Man's attitude toward nature is today critically "Man's attitude toward nature is today critically

important simply because we have now acquired a important simply because we have now acquired a fateful power to alter and destroy nature. But man is a fateful power to alter and destroy nature. But man is a part of nature, and his war against nature is inevitably part of nature, and his war against nature is inevitably a war against himself? [We are] challenged as mankind a war against himself? [We are] challenged as mankind has never been challenged before to prove our maturity has never been challenged before to prove our maturity and our mastery, not of nature, but of ourselves."and our mastery, not of nature, but of ourselves."

Interested in relationship between pesticides and Interested in relationship between pesticides and breast cancer? http://www.silentspring.org/ - Silent breast cancer? http://www.silentspring.org/ - Silent Spring InstituteSpring Institute

Of the 3,000 high-production chemicals used in the Of the 3,000 high-production chemicals used in the United States, 43 percent have never undergone United States, 43 percent have never undergone basic toxicity tests. Only 7 percent have been tested basic toxicity tests. Only 7 percent have been tested using the full battery of standard toxicity tests.using the full battery of standard toxicity tests.

04/20/2370

Biological controlBiological control1.1. Importation of a natural enemy – typically where the pest came Importation of a natural enemy – typically where the pest came

from. Classical biological control; not directly conducted by the from. Classical biological control; not directly conducted by the farmer or gardenerfarmer or gardener

first major successful example of this method occurred over 100 years ago first major successful example of this method occurred over 100 years ago and involved the control of cottony cushion scale, a serious pest of the and involved the control of cottony cushion scale, a serious pest of the California citrus industry.California citrus industry.

2.2. Conservation biological control – manipulating to increase the Conservation biological control – manipulating to increase the equilibrium density of natural enemies already native to the equilibrium density of natural enemies already native to the region; conserving natural enemies; one of the easiest ways for region; conserving natural enemies; one of the easiest ways for producers to initiate biological control on their farms producers to initiate biological control on their farms

3.3. Inoculation biological control - releasing small numbers of natural Inoculation biological control - releasing small numbers of natural enemies at prescribed intervals throughout the pest period, enemies at prescribed intervals throughout the pest period, starting when the pest population is very low. The natural enemies starting when the pest population is very low. The natural enemies are expected to reproduce themselves to provide more long-term are expected to reproduce themselves to provide more long-term control. The expected outcome of inoculative releases is to keep control. The expected outcome of inoculative releases is to keep the pest at low numbers, never allowing it to approach an the pest at low numbers, never allowing it to approach an economic injury leveleconomic injury level

[another way? multi-culture][another way? multi-culture]04/20/2371

Integrated farming Integrated farming systemssystems

Integrated pest managementIntegrated pest management Physical control [keeping pests away from crops] +Physical control [keeping pests away from crops] + Cultural control [rotating crops] +Cultural control [rotating crops] + Biological control +Biological control + Possibly – chemical and resistant crop control Possibly – chemical and resistant crop control

Note: Note: organicorganic food production applies many of the food production applies many of the same concepts as IPM but limits the use of same concepts as IPM but limits the use of pesticides to those that are produced from natural pesticides to those that are produced from natural sources, as opposed to synthetic chemicals.sources, as opposed to synthetic chemicals.

04/20/2372

Ecological civilizationEcological civilization

http://www.monthlyreview.org/http://www.monthlyreview.org/110101magdoff.php110101magdoff.php

04/20/2373

Sustainability: Three Sustainability: Three legged stoollegged stoolConsumption – the rate of use of naturalresources.

Population – the growth of the human population

Resources – air, land, water, biota

Sustainability

Reso

urc

es

Consu

mpti

on

Popula

tion