- Homes on the Range - Range-wide assessment of priority areas for the conservation of prairie dog

ecosystems: integrating habitat suitability, land use, and climate change

Ana Davidson1, David J. Augustine3, Michael Menefee4, Dave Anderson4, Volker Radeloff5, Lindsey Sterling Krank6

1Department of Wildlife, Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA 2USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Fort Collins, CO

3Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 4Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

5Prairie Dog Coalition, Boulder, CO

Our Team: Agency, NGO, University Partnership

Dr. Ana Davidson (Humboldt State University)

Dr. David Augustine (USDA-ARS)

Michael Menefee Dave Anderson (Colorado Natural Heritage Program)

Dr. Volker Radeloff (University of Madison-Wisconsin)

Lindsey Sterling Krank (Prairie Dog Coalition, PDC)

And Coalition members, including Ghia Zalewa (PDC), Steve Forrest & Jonathan Proctor (Defenders of Wildlife), and Kristy Bly (WWF)

History

Update Homes on the Range 2005 Original Data Request in 2013 After discussion and research Scientific Credibility Better strategy- Larger landscape approach, collaborative Evolution

RANGEWISE ASSESSMENT OF PRIORITY AREAS FOR THE CONSERVATION OF PRAIRIE DOG ECOSYSTEMS: INTEGRATING HABITAT SUITABILITY, LAND USE PATTERNS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Follow up to Bob’s Luce’s 2004 Report. We recognize the states helped build that report and ultimately we’d have a much better result if we could get your input and participation on this report too.

• Same approach as Luce; but with updated methodology.

Homes on the Range addresses management needs

• Eco-regional landscape approach• Uses keystone species• Input from land & wildlife managers at

the planning, review, and implementation phases• Goes beyond SWAP planning• Direct conservation actions that you want to implement • Pro-active planning tool to get ahead of species listing

Ex: Arctic Grayling in MT

- Success story because Conservation planning and implementation got ahead of regulations.

• Current summaries on conservation actions from the Luce Report • State of the art ensemble forecast modeling (landuse and climate change) • Long-term planning & decision support tool

Prairie dogs are central to Homes on the Range because they are keystone species of North America’s central grasslands

Bergstrom et al., 2013, Conservation Letters

Because prairie dogs function as ecosystem engineers and keystone species in North America’s grasslands, their conservation and management lies at the core of many landscape-level conservation efforts

Conservation of prairie dogs has implications for efforts to conserve species that use alternative habitats

Spatial optimization of conservation efforts will be essential where range of prairie dog dependent species overlap with their associate species

Overall Goals:

1) Generate models and map products that inform managers on key areas of conservation importance for all 5 prairie dog species and associated biodiversity, across North America’s central and western grasslands.

• Models will provide land managers throughout the 5 species range with a valuable decision support tool for conservation and management.

2) This effort will be followed by community outreach to communicate results, and working collaboratively with land managers and NGOs to implement the on-the-ground conservation actions

Geographic distribution of the five prairie dog species

Methods: Identifying suitable landscapes

Our process for identifying priority areas will involve 3 steps:

1) Identify a large pool of suitable landscapes that could contribute to future prairie dog conservation

a. Compile existing data from state, federal and other land managers on current status/distribution of prairie dogs and associated species.

b. Compile GIS layers on land ownership, land use/land cover

c. Use (a) and (b) combined with analyses of existing distribution of habitat patch sizes and connectivity to identify landscapes for more detailed analyses of habitat suitability.

Methods: Identifying suitable landscapes

Our process for identifying priority areas will involve 4 steps:

1) Identify a large pool of suitable landscapes that could contribute to future prairie dog conservation

a. Compile existing data from state, federal and other agencies on current status/distribution of prairie dogs and associated species

b. Compile GIS layers on land ownership, land use/cover

c. Use (a) and (b) combined with analyses of existing distribution of habitat patch sizes and connectivity to identify landscapes for more detailed analyses of habitat suitability.

Need Agency/Expert input on how to weight these factors

when developing the pool of landscapes to analyze

Methods: Habitat Suitability Modelling

Our process for identifying priority areas will involve 4 steps:

1) Identify a large pool of suitable landscapes that could contribute to future prairie dog conservation

2) Generating habitat suitability models within these landscapes

a. using state-of-the-art ensemble forecasting

b. prairie dog occurrence data and environmental variables

c. Once the models are parameterized with current climate, we will generate HSMs based on projected climate in 2080

Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Habitat Suitability Model GPLCC

Methods: Identifying priority areas

Our process for identifying priority areas will involve 4 steps:

1) Identify a large pool of suitable landscapes that could contribute to future prairie dog conservation

2) Generating habitat suitability models within these landscapes

a. using state-of-the-art ensemble forecasting

b. prairie dog occurrence data and environmental variables

c. Once the models are parameterized with current climate, we will generate HSMs based on projected climate in 2080

Online Portal for HOTR Products: Making Reports, Data and Maps Easily Accessible for Researchers and Land Managers

NRCS Black-footed ferret Initiativehttp://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/mt/programs/financial/eqip/?cid=stelprdb1253844

Using Prairie Dog Data in Management

Methods: Identify priority areas under landuse & climate change

Our process for identifying priority areas will involve 4 steps:

1) Identifying suitable landscapes

2) Generating habitat suitability models within these landscapes

3) Incorporate landuse and climate change predictions into habitat suitability models (climate envelope approaches)

Climate Change

• Prairie dogs in the lower elevation and southern part of their range are threatened by drought

• Consistent with long-term prairie dog population declines in the American Southwest and northern Mexico, due to drought

• Stresses by climate will increase with continued climate warming

• Base our models on projected climate in 2080

Davidson et al., 2014, JWM

Methods: Priority area rankings

Our process for identifying priority areas will involve 4 steps:

1) Identifying suitable landscapes

2) Generating habitat suitability models within these landscapes

3) Incorporate climate change predictions into habitat suitability models (climate envelope approaches)

4. Identifying current & future priority areas within predicted suitable habitat for each prairie dog species

a. Quantification of top priority areasb. Expert inputc. Habitat connectivity

Methods: Ground-truthing, expert review, and priority area selection

1. Priority area model selection will be informed and reviewed by land managers and other regional experts

1. Attend State agency prairie dog working groups2. Contact key individuals directly3. Provide template maps using LandScope (http://

www.landscope.org/)

2. Model validation will be assessed with ground-truthing by experts

3. Hold workshops on modeling results. Request feedback on draft results via meetings or workshops with land managers, agency representatives and other stakeholders

Outreach & Implementation

1. Fundraising for on-the-ground conservation implementation

2. Engaging with local communities through field projects, education, and community outreach

We will partner with land managers and landowners to implement priority area conservation.

LCC Focal Areas

LCC Steering Committees

Desert Geographic Area

Products Maybe remove this slide?

A report titled, “Homes on the range: top priority areas for prairie dog ecosystem conservation”, for NGO’s and agencies to use for guiding their conservation and management efforts.

And…

1. HSMs and GIS data layers of colonies and priority areas for NGO’s and agencies

2. Private land areas that have the greatest leverage for land exchanges and purchase

3. Implementing the priority areas conservation on-the-ground

4. Publishing a peer-reviewed scientific paper on the work.

Timetable Keep this slide?

Timetable: Date Milestone

November 1, 2014 Project Start Date

January 1, 2014 Prairie dog Colony Dataset Compiled

GIS Technician Hired

Fall -Winter 2014 DEMs, NCDC data, SSURGO databases compiled for all study areas

Soil attribute layers, TWI/TRI layers, and precipitation maps created

Geodatabase established with all layers linked in common datum for each site

Spring 2015 Ensemble habitat suitability modelling

Spring 2015 Priority area selection modelling

Summer 2015 Ground-truthing and expert review

Fall 2015 Refine and finalize priority area selections

Winter 2015-2016 Write Homes on the Range report

Spring-summer 2016 Conduct outreach & make data layers available to NGOs and agencies

Summer-fall 2016 Write scientific publication on results

Budget

BUDGET: $250,000

• GIS specialist

• Roles of Menefee, Sterling-Krank, and Davidson

• Travel

Questions?

Variables