Page * (real estate, real property, realty) - (fixture) - (immobility) - Realty : - - Real Property : - - Real Estate : + - 1.

Page * (development, improvement) - , - (, , , )

- (Land Development) : , , Up-Zoning - : , , - , - (Remodeling) -

Page * - - - - - - - - , - - , ,

- - - - - - - -

Page *

(2001:31) : , , (land improvement) (2003:29) : (2002:15) : - (1998:42) :

Page * Larry E. Wofford(1983:553-4) : (property development) , , , , Miles, M.E., et al.(2003:4) : (development) ( ) , , , , , . , , , (, 2001:6) : () , . , , , , .

Page * ,

- -

Page *

, ( ) , , ,

Page * ?

(highest and best use)

Page * ( ) : , () , , () , () (), , , , 2.

Page * : ?

- - - - - - - -

Page *

(Deveoper) - : - , , - : - : , , ,

- : - Howard A. Zuckerman, George D. Blevins : (raw land) (improved property) - : , , , , , , , , - : , , , , , , , ,

Page * - (Total Desinger) - (Innovator) - (Organizer, Cordinator) : - (Specialist, Professionalist) -

Howard A. Zuckerman, George D. Blevins Merchant Builder : , () Land Developer : Speculative Developer - , Fee Developer : , Renovators and Converters : ,

Page *

() - - , , , -

, - : , , , , - , (CM : construction management)

Page *

- : , , - : (structured financing) - : ,

- - ,

- - : ,

() -

Page *

- PM(project manager) - : fee developer - , (AMC : asset management company)

- IMF - - : , -

Page *

- - -

- - :

Page *

- - , ,

- : , - , - , - , - -

Page * 3 ()

-

Page * ( ) ()

: , , ( ) : , () , , () , () (), , , , 3.

Page * 3 ()

-

- - - - -

8 - 1 : (Inception of an Idea) - 2 : , (Refinement of the Idea) - 3 : (Feasibility) - 4 : (Contract Negotiation) - 5 : (Formal Commitment) - 6 : (Construction) - 7 : (Completion and Formal Opening) - 8 : (Property, Asset and Portfolio Management) : Miles, M.E., et al., Real Estate Development, 3rd Ed., ULI. 2003:5-7.

TEAM,

-

--

---

----

Idea

1. : , , , , , , , 2. : , ,

: . . 4. GDP

Chart1

17.7

14.6

12.7

14

15.4

15.2

13.8

15

16.7

17.2

18

15.1

16.3

17.4

16.8

16.1

14.4

14.7

15.5

17.5

21.9

23.9228238342

22.9241578662

23.228231059

21.9765361398

22.1287255443

22.2655375745

22.1775365948

20.65104767

18.0485465809

16.706779144

17.023284478

17.0184439182

18.5685813145

18.8

%

1-1 GDP

:10

19701975198019851990199520002004

17.714.612.71415.415.213.81516.717.21815.116.317.416.816.114.414.715.517.521.923.922.923.222.022.122.322.220.718.016.717.017.018.618.8

54067.459035.367518.87476688257.799882.4108921.699972.39556796676.2105905.7116451133943.7146000

226007.6257524.4290675.6340208.3398837.7448596.4491134.8484102.8529499.7578664.5622122.6684263.5721345.9778000

1-1 GDP

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

(70)$58,927$278,735$21,149,0454.775.9

(701)$4,531$36,635$13,326,8298.1363.8

(7012)$363$7,926$9,870,22321.81,245.3

(70121)$147$3,809$6,218,54425.91,632.6

(70122)$114$1,312$259,59611.5197.9

(70129)$102$2,805$3,392,08327.51,209.3

1997$3,857$41,948$9,133,74010.9217.7

1998$3,631$29,910$8,685,3498.2290.4

1999$4,473$31,378$10,306,6387.0328.5

2000$4,850$32,898$9,853,8196.8299.5

2001$4,531$36,635$13,326,8298.1363.8

2002$5,531$39,347$13,351,3397.1339.3

2003$6,378$43,494$12,985,8796.8298.6

1995$2,771,068$49,094$3,509

1996$2,807,8021.33$50,3012.46$3,5962.48

1997$2,853,6731.63$52,9155.20$3,8577.26

1998$2,785,659-2.38$51,909-1.90$3,631-5.86

1999$2,927,3305.09$58,28312.28$4,47323.19

2000$3,013,4172.94$61,1704.95$4,8508.43

2001$3,046,5541.10$65,9857.87$4,839-0.23

2002$3,131,9632.80$76,18815.46$5,53114.30

1995$2,771,068$49,0941.777520.03

1996$2,807,802$50,3011.797570.03

1997$2,853,673$52,9151.857710.03

1998$2,785,659$51,9091.865680.02

1999$2,927,330$58,2831.997020.02

2000$3,013,417$61,1702.036960.02

2001$3,046,554$65,9852.174060.01

2002$3,131,963$76,1882.438270.03

Sheet2

70 , , , , . 701 7011 .70111 .70112 , (, ) .70119 , .7012 . .70121 . .70122 . .70129 , , . .

702 7021 . , .70211 .70212 .7022 70221 , .70222 , , .

(: , %)

(%) (%)19952,771,068 49,094 1.77 7520.03 19962,807,802 50,301 1.79 7570.03 19972,853,673 52,915 1.85 7710.03 19982,785,659 51,909 1.86 5680.02 19992,927,330 58,283 1.99 7020.02 20003,013,417 61,170 2.03 6960.02 20013,046,554 65,985 2.17 4060.01 20023,131,963 76,188 2.43 8270.03

(2001) (: , , )

(70)58,927 278,735 21,149,045 4.7 75.9 (701)4,531 36,635 13,326,829 8.1 363.8 (7012)363 7,926 9,870,223 21.8 1,245.3 (70121)147 3,809 6,218,544 25.9 1,632.6 (70122)114 1,312 259,596 11.5 197.9 (70129)102 2,805 3,392,083 27.5 1,209.3

Chart2

0.78285701070.2171429893

0.70884169190.2911583081

0.44568293590.5543170641

0.70636123410.2936387659

0.57930141610.4206985839

0.68897212290.3110278771

0.64828407170.3517159283

0.59461411690.4053858831

0.5991273210.400872679

0.64223490240.3577650976

0.50928632020.4907136798

0.52868529450.4713147055

0.409781610.59021839

0.44143339090.5585666091

0.41035766340.5896423366

0.45154529480.5484547052

0.48348988960.5165101104

0.38356343290.6164365671

0.37885413980.6211458602

0.34757882050.6524211795

0.41404185330.5859581467

0.42281659710.5771834029

0.5782416810.421758319

0.39636218720.6036378128

0.31410542330.6858945767

0.38463086130.6153691387

0.28591755610.7140824439

0.24001148980.7599885102

[: ]

1. /1-1-1. (-)

1976518,976-406,284-187,434-83,380-121,685-13,785112,69221.71%78.29%

1977787,33851.7558,09837.4140,520-25114,90837.8265,102117.937,568229,24029.12%70.88%

19781,655,419110.3737,79232.2256,31082.4206,72879.9234,545-11.540,209917,62755.43%44.57%

19792,195,31332.61,550,684110.2437,43970.7307,80348.9754,879221.850,563644,62929.36%70.64%

19802,062,315-6.11,194,702-23380,091-13.1400,40730.1355,778-52.958,426867,61342.07%57.93%

19813,197,67855.12,203,11184.4606,40159.5609,42052.2906,693154.880,597994,56731.10%68.90%

19823,933,993232,550,34515.8657,2508.4955,10856.7829,199-8.5108,7881,383,64835.17%64.83%

19834,734,71120.42,815,32610.4626,457-4.7913,529-4.41,145,80438.2129,5361,919,38540.54%59.46%

19845,187,0169.63,107,68310.4604,154-3.61,185,60229.81,133,325-1.1184,6022,079,33340.09%59.91%

19855,388,4773.93,460,66811.4748,44823.91,115,076-5.91,385,70022.3211,4441,927,80935.78%64.22%

19865,980,679113,045,878-12728,639-2.6793,200-28.91,337,494-3.5186,5452,934,80149.07%50.93%

19877,249,88221.23,832,90625.8971,05933.31,111,52940.11,459,9599.2290,3593,416,97647.13%52.87%

19887,292,4600.62,988,316-22735,880-24.2778,709-29.91,285,279-12188,4484,304,14459.02%40.98%

198913,453,24684.55,938,71298.71,508,4761051,376,24676.72,828,192120225,7987,514,53455.86%44.14%

199020,963,95655.88,602,72044.91,615,3667.12,817,956104.83,711,08131.2458,31712,361,23658.96%41.04%

199125,569,4262211,545,75434.21,899,92917.63,258,02915.65,791,24156.1596,55514,023,67254.85%45.15%

199227,861,019913,470,52116.73,173,754673,843,179185,087,127-12.21,366,46114,390,49851.65%48.35%

199333,246,48019.312,752,134-5.32,240,210-29.44,794,63424.84,970,237-2.3747,05320,494,34661.64%38.36%

199439,393,81018.514,924,508172,533,73313.15,263,4719.86,401,79428.8725,51024,469,30262.11%37.89%

199549,025,09324.417,040,08414.23,812,41650.53,671,236-30.37,948,39224.21,608,04031,985,00965.24%34.76%

199659,534,96221.424,649,96644.74,560,34219.65,726,0195611,722,37847.52,641,22734,884,99658.60%41.40%

199762,721,5095.426,519,6957.66,504,70942.67,232,62026.310,366,771-11.62,415,59536,201,81457.72%42.28%

199836,026,910-42.620,832,261-21.44,888,065-24.95,212,513-27.97,805,019-24.72,926,66415,194,64942.18%57.82%

199936,299,1740.814,387,620-30.95,202,0696.43,965,572-23.93,953,683-49.31,266,29621,911,55460.36%39.64%

200041,777,53415.113,122,550-8.84,156,196-20.13,577,836-9.84,330,9159.51,057,60328,654,98468.59%31.41%

200150,994,92022.119,614,22049.53,690,507-11.25,965,65966.78,960,146106.9997,90831,380,70061.54%38.46%

200267,833,6593319,394,834-1.16,101,16665.36,585,26810.44,936,074-44.91,772,32648,438,82571.41%28.59%

200383,072,12322.519,938,2642.86,193,9911.56,188,665-65,228,9895.92,326,61963,133,85976.00%24.00%

1990 170

1991 1994 200 ( 54%

)

1995 1998 250 ( 54%

)

1999 292 ( 54% )

2000 290 ( 54% )

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

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00

00

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00

00

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00

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00

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00

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Chart1

1050782

932566

875612

670544

604539

576582

656479

732475

793458

914486

1167562

1147515

1162511

1172493

869474

847573

799.176710.611

787.781772.839

857.513627.139

922.922707.456

839.637501.71

716.346463.19

687.552538.655

762.185450.972

828.933344.237

885.418260.135

1-6

1977$1,832$1,050$782

1978$1,498$932$566

1979$1,487$875$612

1980$1,214$670$544

1981$1,143$604$539

1982$1,158$576$582

1983$1,135$656$479

1984$1,207$732$475

1985$1,251$793$458

1986$1,400$914$486

1987$1,729$1,167$562

1988$1,662$1,147$515

1989$1,673$1,162$511

1990$1,665$1,172$493

1991$1,343$869$474

1992$1,420$847$573

1993$1,510$799$711

1994$1,561$788$773

1995$1,485$858$627

1996$1,630$923$707

1997$1,341$840$502

1998$1,180$716$463

1999$1,226$688$539

2000$1,213$762$451

2001$1,173$829$344

2002$1,146$885$260

1-6

4568.512.49

8317.812.13

7835.212.23

8109.312.16

6841.212.05

8911.412.14

8186.612.31

9995.612.72

-6360.815.81

-4722.116.43

-6507.715.13

-1548.413.47

10711.99

7158.510.98

7006.810.25

11843.410.18

7458.110.08

15789.79.93

11884.39.82

13995.59.68

8422.59.06

15528.38.6

18192.97.98

20306.87.15

25309.76.73

25571.46.94

25539.46.9

11179.57.1

5634.26.97

5812.16.65

6991.96.2

11380.86.18

4750.26.18

8070.86.03

7437.55.76

8201.45.56

&A

Page &P

()

()

( : )

( : %)

4568.512.49

8317.812.13

7835.212.23

8109.312.16

6841.212.05

8911.412.14

8186.612.31

9995.612.72

-6360.815.81

-4722.116.43

-6507.715.13

-1548.413.47

10711.99

7158.510.98

7006.810.25

11843.410.18

7458.110.08

15789.79.93

11884.39.82

13995.59.68

8422.59.06

15528.38.6

18192.97.98

20306.87.15

25309.76.73

25571.46.94

25539.46.9

11179.57.1

5634.26.97

5812.16.65

6991.96.2

11380.86.18

4750.26.18

8070.86.03

7437.55.76

8201.45.56

()

()

( : )

( : %)

- : , - - - - : 10 : 2

1/22/3

, 2004.2.3.

040506070809101112 ()80% ()40% 60% 80% 6085()40% 60% 80% 60 ()40% ( )40% ( )40% ( ) ()40% ( )60% ( )80% ( )

- (SOC) - - - - - - () (REF) ` - (PFV:Project Financing Vehicle) :

- : - -

- - 70 80 5 23 12 - : -

(+)25.7 25.7 2000.1046,000, 14 2001.912,2004,1003,40019,7006,800 2003.319,6006,8003,30029,7005,940 2003.1219,6007,3742,72629,7005,940 2004.1219,5717,4652,66429,70010,661, 2005.5.1917,5516,6402,61326,80410,168 2005.6.17 25.7 2005.11 2005.8.3117,5519,7402,11329,40411,098 10% (2006.3-9)

: 114

Page * - : /, , - timing, (, ), , , - : high-risk, high-return - , - : 10 - : , cash-flow IRR, NPV, NOI, Cap.rate - , , , - : low-risk, low-return ( ) - :

() (), , , , , , Financing Corporate Financing( )Project financing( ) , , , , , , ,

Page *

? ? - ? ? ? ? ? ?

: , 2004.5.10 : , 2004.5.5Page *