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中国能源发展战略与政策趋向 吴宗鑫 清华大学核能与新能源研究院. 提 纲. 1. 中国能源发展趋势的分析 2. 中国能源状况和国际的比较 3. 未来中国能源需求发展展望和面临的挑战 4. 世界能源发展趋势 5. 中国能源发展的战略框架 6. 中国能源政策趋势探讨. 1. 中国能源发展趋势的分析. 能源是国民经济和社会发展不可缺少的生产要素和物质基础。 直接关系到国家经济安全,生态环境保护和人民生活质量,已经成为我国经济社会生活中的最为迫切的问题之一。 能源安全已成为各国制定能源政策的基础。 能源外交已成为各国外交活动的重要领域。. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
1.
Chart1
0.33
0.37
-0.26
0.59
0.5
0.48
0.6
0.62
0.62
0.65
1.03
0.48
0.56
0.37
0.45
0.44
0.63
0.59
-0.09
-0.52
-0.21
0.02
1.19
0.66
1.53
1.6
0.96
Sheet1
GDPtcetce
19783624.15714457144
19794038.258588585880.331.3
19804517.860275602750.370.85
19814862.45944759447-0.260.56
19825294.762646626460.590.65
19835394.566040660400.50.67
1984717170904709040.480.48
19858964.476682766820.60.66
198610202.280850808500.621.08
198711962.586632866320.620.91
198814928.392997929970.650.85
198916909.296934969341.031.77
199018574.998703987030.481.65
199121617.81037831037830.560.98
199225863.71091701091700.370.8
1993353341159931159930.450.8
1994481981227371227370.440.69
1995607941311761311760.630.81
1996711771389481389480.590.71
199778973137798137798-0.090.55
199884402132214132214-0.520.27
199989677130119130119-0.210.86
2000992151302971302970.021.3
20011096551431991431991.191
20021203331517871517870.661.27
20031358231749901749901.531.65
20041598782032272032271.61.48
20051823212224682224680.961.33
Sheet2
1978
19790.33
19800.37
1981-0.26
19820.59
19830.5
19840.48
19850.6
19860.62
19870.62
19880.65
19891.03
19900.48
19910.56
19920.37
19930.45
19940.44
19950.63
19960.59
1997-0.09
1998-0.52
1999-0.21
20000.02
20011.19
20020.66
20031.53
20041.6
20050.96
Sheet2
Sheet3
198019966.0313.890.53
1997200089 2001
2002
1990-2001 3.4%2002-200514.5%1990-2001 6.4%2002-2005 6.6%1990-2001 8.4%2002-200514.7%
GDP 1990-2001 9.7%2002-2005 9.6%GDP/GDP1990-2001 0.352002-2005 1.51GDP/GDP1990-2001 0.862002-2005 1.53
100
200
300
400
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Mtce
Production
Consumption
2.
GDP : 1730 US$ 21.20 tce 22.24 tce : 1.81 t 3.00 t : 500 m3: 2.475 kWhCO2 : 14.62 t-C( 2005)
SO2 CO2
GDP/GDP
Chart2
0.689
0.194
0.03
0.076
0.011
Sheet1
GDPtcetce
19783624.15714457144
19794038.258588585880.331.3
19804517.860275602750.370.85
19814862.45944759447-0.260.56
19825294.762646626460.590.65
19835394.566040660400.50.67
1984717170904709040.480.48
19858964.476682766820.60.66
198610202.280850808500.621.08
198711962.586632866320.620.91
198814928.392997929970.650.85
198916909.296934969341.031.77
199018574.998703987030.481.65
199121617.81037831037830.560.98
199225863.71091701091700.370.8
1993353341159931159930.450.8
1994481981227371227370.440.69
1995607941311761311760.630.81
1996711771389481389480.590.71
199778973137798137798-0.090.55
199884402132214132214-0.520.27
199989677130119130119-0.210.86
2000992151302971302970.021.3
20011096551431991431991.191
20021203331517871517870.661.27
20031358231749901749901.531.65
20041598782032272032271.61.48
20051823212224682224680.961.33
Sheet2
1978
19791.3
19800.85
19810.56
19820.65
19830.67
19840.48
19850.66
19861.08
19870.91
19880.85
19891.77
19901.65
19910.98
19920.8
19930.8
19940.69
19950.81
19960.71
19970.55
19980.27
19990.86
20001.3
20011
20021.27
20031.65
20041.48
20051.33
Sheet3
0.689
0.194
0.03
0.076
0.011
Sheet3
Chart1
0.257
0.385
0.233
0.076
0.024
Sheet1
GDPtce
19783624.157144
19794038.258588
19804517.860275
19814862.459447
19825294.762646
19835394.566040
1984717170904
19858964.476682
198610202.280850
198711962.586632
198814928.392997
198916909.296934
199018574.998703
199121617.8103783
199225863.7109170
199335334115993
199448198122737
199560794131176
199671177138948
199778973137798
199884402132214
199989677130119
200099215130297
2001109655143199
2002120333151787
2003135823174990
2004159878203227
2005182321222468
Sheet2
1978
19791.3
19800.85
19810.56
19820.65
19830.67
19840.48
19850.66
19861.08
19870.91
19880.85
19891.77
19901.65
19910.98
19920.8
19930.8
19940.69
19950.81
19960.71
19970.55
19980.27
19990.86
20001.3
20011
20021.27
20031.65
20041.48
20051.33
Sheet3
0.257
0.385
0.233
0.076
0.024
Sheet3
GDPtoe/
2
683
263
176
253
191
Sheet1
683
263
176
253
OECD191
Sheet1
/GDP
Sheet2
Sheet3
GDP
GDP 15.4% 51.1% 33.5% 2% 26% 72%
74%tce/
3.
GDP
GDPGDP14GDP14.25 (1980)4.07(1997)8 (1960)
14.7GDP : 7.5%GDP 3.5%GDP 0.5GDP 0.86GDP 0.682020
2020
20052020 ()1.31.47 GDP (US$)17274519 (Mtce)22243862tce1.712.63 (Mt)300633 (TWh)24756321 (GW)5081264
2060
13015010 14m310% 2020200 m3
2202060%
5.420041813%19%
SO2NOxCO2:
2/36000/.20002.4 102.537.5 750%3.52.2
1
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4
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6
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2040
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20302060 B.tce
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203516%
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6
1.
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