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中国能源发展战略与政策趋向 吴宗鑫 清华大学核能与新能源研究院

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中国能源发展战略与政策趋向 吴宗鑫 清华大学核能与新能源研究院. 提 纲. 1. 中国能源发展趋势的分析 2. 中国能源状况和国际的比较 3. 未来中国能源需求发展展望和面临的挑战 4. 世界能源发展趋势 5. 中国能源发展的战略框架 6. 中国能源政策趋势探讨. 1. 中国能源发展趋势的分析. 能源是国民经济和社会发展不可缺少的生产要素和物质基础。 直接关系到国家经济安全,生态环境保护和人民生活质量,已经成为我国经济社会生活中的最为迫切的问题之一。 能源安全已成为各国制定能源政策的基础。 能源外交已成为各国外交活动的重要领域。. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

  • 1.

  • Chart1

    0.33

    0.37

    -0.26

    0.59

    0.5

    0.48

    0.6

    0.62

    0.62

    0.65

    1.03

    0.48

    0.56

    0.37

    0.45

    0.44

    0.63

    0.59

    -0.09

    -0.52

    -0.21

    0.02

    1.19

    0.66

    1.53

    1.6

    0.96

    Sheet1

    GDPtcetce

    19783624.15714457144

    19794038.258588585880.331.3

    19804517.860275602750.370.85

    19814862.45944759447-0.260.56

    19825294.762646626460.590.65

    19835394.566040660400.50.67

    1984717170904709040.480.48

    19858964.476682766820.60.66

    198610202.280850808500.621.08

    198711962.586632866320.620.91

    198814928.392997929970.650.85

    198916909.296934969341.031.77

    199018574.998703987030.481.65

    199121617.81037831037830.560.98

    199225863.71091701091700.370.8

    1993353341159931159930.450.8

    1994481981227371227370.440.69

    1995607941311761311760.630.81

    1996711771389481389480.590.71

    199778973137798137798-0.090.55

    199884402132214132214-0.520.27

    199989677130119130119-0.210.86

    2000992151302971302970.021.3

    20011096551431991431991.191

    20021203331517871517870.661.27

    20031358231749901749901.531.65

    20041598782032272032271.61.48

    20051823212224682224680.961.33

    Sheet2

    1978

    19790.33

    19800.37

    1981-0.26

    19820.59

    19830.5

    19840.48

    19850.6

    19860.62

    19870.62

    19880.65

    19891.03

    19900.48

    19910.56

    19920.37

    19930.45

    19940.44

    19950.63

    19960.59

    1997-0.09

    1998-0.52

    1999-0.21

    20000.02

    20011.19

    20020.66

    20031.53

    20041.6

    20050.96

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • 198019966.0313.890.53

  • 1997200089 2001

  • 2002

  • 1990-2001 3.4%2002-200514.5%1990-2001 6.4%2002-2005 6.6%1990-2001 8.4%2002-200514.7%

  • GDP 1990-2001 9.7%2002-2005 9.6%GDP/GDP1990-2001 0.352002-2005 1.51GDP/GDP1990-2001 0.862002-2005 1.53

  • 100

    200

    300

    400

    1980

    1985

    1990

    1995

    2000

    2005

    Mtce

    Production

    Consumption

  • 2.

  • GDP : 1730 US$ 21.20 tce 22.24 tce : 1.81 t 3.00 t : 500 m3: 2.475 kWhCO2 : 14.62 t-C( 2005)

  • SO2 CO2

  • GDP/GDP

  • Chart2

    0.689

    0.194

    0.03

    0.076

    0.011

    Sheet1

    GDPtcetce

    19783624.15714457144

    19794038.258588585880.331.3

    19804517.860275602750.370.85

    19814862.45944759447-0.260.56

    19825294.762646626460.590.65

    19835394.566040660400.50.67

    1984717170904709040.480.48

    19858964.476682766820.60.66

    198610202.280850808500.621.08

    198711962.586632866320.620.91

    198814928.392997929970.650.85

    198916909.296934969341.031.77

    199018574.998703987030.481.65

    199121617.81037831037830.560.98

    199225863.71091701091700.370.8

    1993353341159931159930.450.8

    1994481981227371227370.440.69

    1995607941311761311760.630.81

    1996711771389481389480.590.71

    199778973137798137798-0.090.55

    199884402132214132214-0.520.27

    199989677130119130119-0.210.86

    2000992151302971302970.021.3

    20011096551431991431991.191

    20021203331517871517870.661.27

    20031358231749901749901.531.65

    20041598782032272032271.61.48

    20051823212224682224680.961.33

    Sheet2

    1978

    19791.3

    19800.85

    19810.56

    19820.65

    19830.67

    19840.48

    19850.66

    19861.08

    19870.91

    19880.85

    19891.77

    19901.65

    19910.98

    19920.8

    19930.8

    19940.69

    19950.81

    19960.71

    19970.55

    19980.27

    19990.86

    20001.3

    20011

    20021.27

    20031.65

    20041.48

    20051.33

    Sheet3

    0.689

    0.194

    0.03

    0.076

    0.011

    Sheet3

    Chart1

    0.257

    0.385

    0.233

    0.076

    0.024

    Sheet1

    GDPtce

    19783624.157144

    19794038.258588

    19804517.860275

    19814862.459447

    19825294.762646

    19835394.566040

    1984717170904

    19858964.476682

    198610202.280850

    198711962.586632

    198814928.392997

    198916909.296934

    199018574.998703

    199121617.8103783

    199225863.7109170

    199335334115993

    199448198122737

    199560794131176

    199671177138948

    199778973137798

    199884402132214

    199989677130119

    200099215130297

    2001109655143199

    2002120333151787

    2003135823174990

    2004159878203227

    2005182321222468

    Sheet2

    1978

    19791.3

    19800.85

    19810.56

    19820.65

    19830.67

    19840.48

    19850.66

    19861.08

    19870.91

    19880.85

    19891.77

    19901.65

    19910.98

    19920.8

    19930.8

    19940.69

    19950.81

    19960.71

    19970.55

    19980.27

    19990.86

    20001.3

    20011

    20021.27

    20031.65

    20041.48

    20051.33

    Sheet3

    0.257

    0.385

    0.233

    0.076

    0.024

    Sheet3

  • GDPtoe/

    2

    683

    263

    176

    253

    191

    Sheet1

    683

    263

    176

    253

    OECD191

    Sheet1

    /GDP

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • GDP

    GDP 15.4% 51.1% 33.5% 2% 26% 72%

  • 74%tce/

  • 3.

  • GDP

  • GDPGDP14GDP14.25 (1980)4.07(1997)8 (1960)

  • 14.7GDP : 7.5%GDP 3.5%GDP 0.5GDP 0.86GDP 0.682020

  • 2020

    20052020 ()1.31.47 GDP (US$)17274519 (Mtce)22243862tce1.712.63 (Mt)300633 (TWh)24756321 (GW)5081264

  • 2060

  • 13015010 14m310% 2020200 m3

  • 2202060%

  • 5.420041813%19%

  • SO2NOxCO2:

  • 2/36000/.20002.4 102.537.5 750%3.52.2

  • 1

  • 2020660%2

  • 31.4%1030%GDP3

  • 4 2020

  • 4

  • 7080

    80

  • 2190 CO2 FutrueGen GEN-FreedomCAR & Fuel Initiative Grid2030

  • 6

  • 80%30%

  • 21%

    2000

    2010

    2020

    2030

    2040

    2050

    19.4

    20.2

    23.5

    33.6

    42.7

    53.4

    -

    -

    -

    1.9

    7.9

    13.5

    Shell

    18.3

    22.2

    20.9

    32.3

    43.3

    54.6

    -

    -

    -

    2.6

    8.4

    14.9

    18.9

    21.2

    22.2

    33.0

    43

    54

    -

    -

    -

    2.3

    8.2

    14.2

  • 20302060 B.tce

  • 21

  • 5

  • 2020GDP

  • 203516%

  • 205050%203530%

  • 60

  • 3010

  • 500550

  • 6

  • 1.

  • 2.

  • 3.

  • 4.

  • 5.

    154

  • 5. 1

  • 5. 5

    1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

  • 5. 4

    1. 2. 3. 4.

  • , , ,,3.64.3)