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義守大學專題演講. 我國銀行業的機會與挑戰. 臺灣銀行 總經理 張明道 2012.5.13. 大 綱. 壹、 國際經濟 情勢 貳、 國 內 經濟 情況 參 、 我國銀行業經營現況 肆、銀行業的機會與挑戰. 壹、國際經濟情勢. 一、全球經濟雙速成長. ( 一 ) 主要工業國家經濟欲振乏力. 資料來源:各國官方網站。. ( 二 ) 亞洲主要國家經濟表現較佳. 單位: %. 資料來源:各國官方網站。. 美、歐、中國大陸及東協六國 GDP 占全球 GDP 比率. %. 資料來源: IMF. (三)本年主要國家經濟成長率預測. %. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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* 2012.5.13
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2010 32.52.14.01.63.05.542.32.13.71.41.73.12011 10.42.44.72.31.5-0.321.31.62.91.70.4-1.731.81.32.71.60.3-0.443.00.72.01.30.5-0.62012 12.20.0
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*()%
/20083.83.33.65.91.42009-0.40.32.2-0.7-1.420101.61.63.33.3-0.720113.02.74.55.4-0.3
2011103.53.05.05.5-0.2113.43.04.84.2-0.5123.02.74.24.1-0.22012 12.92.73.64.50.122.92.73.43.20.332.72.73.53.60.5
*Bloomberg2007/1/1-2012/4/27 119.6104.79/1.(Thomson Reuters) Mar.22, 2012 2.(U.S.A. Energy Information Administration), Mar.6, 2012 ()10058.2859.51141.84144.28
2012105.0105.7114.7
*() 2008 Federal funds rateRepo rate(0~0.25%)(0~0.1%)%(0.5%)(1.0%)2010201120124/20
* :200811 (Quantitative Easing,QE1) 201011QE2Fed(2011)9214,000Fed2011892013(0-0.25%)2014:ECB20111221Long-term Refinancing Operations, LTRO31%4,890229LTRO5,300:2010103570200932,00020111062,750295003,250
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365.6815.27
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*%1.875%0.508%2.896%1.2695%426201020112012
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OBU
Sheet1
20062007200820092010201120102011
-47,6895,73351,34552,839145,815152,5011,831.90
OBU27,89322,3657,28730,28327,29431,6520.34%
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0.00432.5183
Sheet1
200420052006200720092009201020112012/2
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3.80%2.24%2.13%1.84%1.54%1.15%0.61%0.43%0.43%
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20091511108241249
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2012/1-3
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0.00140.0221
0.00160.0247
0.00280.0449
0.00580.091
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(ROA)
(ROE)
Sheet1
20052006200720082009201020112012/2
(ROA)0.30%-0.30%0.14%0.16%0.28%0.58%0.59%0.12%
(ROE)4.81%-0.43%2.21%2.47%4.49%9.10%9.33%1.91%
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Sheet1
200620072008200920102011
()(74)38844483918322000
GDP()122,435129,105126,202124,811136,142137,570
*WEF WEF GCI--The Global Competitiveness Index
Country/EconomyGCI 2011-2012GCI 2010-2011Financial market developmentSoundness of banksRank ScoreRank Rank ScoreSwitzerland15.74175.3526Singapore25.63315.845Sweden35.612115.2417Finland45.47795.348United States55.434224.8790Germany65.415394.5487Netherlands75.418234.8668Denmark85.409175.0178Japan95.406324.6472United Kingdom105.3912204.94111Hong Kong SAR115.361125.7810Canada125.3310135.201Taiwan135.2613244.8451Korea, Rep.245.0222803.9599China264.9027484.4264
*Bloomberg2000-2004 2004-2008 2008-2009 2010 ECFA
*
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10*
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**3003002011
()300 (%) ()300 (%) 11496,040.69 36.94 295.63 15.50 56102,754.01 39.52 1,066.72 55.92 289,587.55 3.69 43.91 2.30 2212,429.93 4.78 111.34 5.84 164,628.53 1.78 50.74 2.66 122,299.54 0.88 47.502.49 1210,018.05 3.85 4.3502.30 113,211.13 1.23 35.97 1.89 91,055.87 0.41 12.13 1.21 35,330.19 2.05 48.27 2.53 154.28 0.02 0.51 0.03 1612,607.08 4.85 139.68 7.33 300260,016.85100.001,856.75100.00
(Basel ) Basel (3)Basel Basel I *
Basel III
*Volcker RuleVolcker Rule Volckerprprietary trading
Volcker Rule
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*%** IMF 2012.04 4301013.38%
Chart1
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Sheet1
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