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© 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.© 2009 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.
Signals of Change
Toward A Sustainable Smart Society17 November 2009
Brock HinzmannTechnology Navigator
Scan
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com
2
Changing Market Needs (Pull)
Aging Population
Health and Wellness
Privacy and Security
Sustainability
Changing Competitive Landscape
Innovation, Standards, and IP Protection
BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
Global Communication Networks
Challenges In Marketing
Science and Technology Discoveries (Push)
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology
MEMS, Sensors, Robots
Pervasive Computing
Energy Technologies
Advanced Materials
A Global Economy:Opportunities and Threats
3
Complex Systems Underlie Basic Needs
4
Watch
Look continuously across diverse information sources for new
types of information that may be relevant.
Scan
Study
Act
Focus
Scanning Opens Awareness to Potentially New Outside Forces
5
Pattern Recognition, Analysis, and Research
Signals of Change
(on the Scan Web and in
Scan™ Monthly)
Workshops
Scanners and Their Abstracts
Monthly Set of 100 Abstracts
Consultations
Monthly Scan™ Meeting
The Process of Scanning
6
Competition and Policy• Timing Is Everything in Going Green (October 2007)• Carbon Labeling Needs Standards (September 2008)• Empowering the Healthy Consumer (October 2009)• Consumer Applications of SaaS (October 2009)• Pay for Effectiveness (August 2009)
Is Sustainabil
ity Sustainabl
e?
Is Sustainabil
ity Sustainabl
e?
Demand• The New Energy Environment (April 2007)• Conspicuous Conservation (May 2008)• Green Motives (October 2008)• The U.S. Consumer and Global Warming (January 2009)• BRIC: Becoming Really Internationally Competitive
(September 2009)• Strategies to Secure Food (September 2009)
Signals of Change
Technology• Advanced Sensors as Application Enablers (January 2008• Smart Appliances Meet Smart Grid (February 2008)• Net Zero Buildings (March 2009)• Ubiquitous User Interfaces (September 2009)• Micropower (October 2009)• Narrowing Automotive-Energy Options (August 2009)
7
“What more can I buy?” Green Movement
“What more can I buy?” Green Movement
Green Consumerism
Green Consumerism
Challenge of Scaling Up Developing World Using
Western Ways
Challenge of Scaling Up Developing World Using
Western Ways
Modest Lifestyle
Movement
Modest Lifestyle
Movement
China Controls the
Game Board
China Controls the
Game Board
Green Economics (government
incentives policies)
Green Economics (government
incentives policies)
Biofuels as
Signals of Turmoil
Biofuels as
Signals of Turmoil
Governments Get Backbone on Nuclear
Governments Get Backbone on Nuclear
Anti-ConsumerismAnti-Consumerism
Arctic Dynamics
(get more data)
Arctic Dynamics
(get more data)
Environmental ConflictEnvironmental Conflict
Hydrogen SaviorHydrogen Savior
Economic Competition for Clean-Tech Jobs
Economic Competition for Clean-Tech Jobs
Solar BreakoutSolar Breakout
Food InflationFood Inflation
Individual/Corporate
Satisficing Behavior
(effective or not?)
Individual/Corporate
Satisficing Behavior
(effective or not?)
Complexity of Global Change
Remains
Complexity of Global Change
Remains
Uncertainty over Climate
Change
Uncertainty over Climate
Change
Repercussions on Global South (get more data)
Repercussions on Global South (get more data)
Global Middle Class
Drag on Change
Global Middle Class
Drag on Change
Uneven PainUneven PainImportance of IndiaImportance of India
Energy Economic
Nexus
Energy Economic
Nexus
Study Spectrum Watch
Tipping PointsTipping Points
New NetworksNew Networks Digital Solutions Replacing Energy-
Intensive Ways
Digital Solutions Replacing Energy-
Intensive Ways
Corporate Activism to get ahead of the waveCorporate Activism to get ahead of the wave
Evolution, malaria/water, food supply (get more data)
Evolution, malaria/water, food supply (get more data)
Perception of Climate Change (Jan 2008)
8
The New Energy Environment
Major events are shaping the regulatory and economic environment for energy-consuming activities.• The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) garnered much attention as an
aggressive step to stem greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. A similar effort is under way in the 12 Northeastern U.S. states forming the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. International carbon cap-and-trade systems already exist in Europe and Asia.
• According to the PricewaterhouseCoopers MoneyTreeReport, venture-capital investment in the energy sector increased 107% from 2005-2006. And 40% of the total investment was in renewables.
• The California Climate Action Registry is a nonprofit GHG registry to promote GHG reductions. Established in 2002, it provides a model for how mandatory reporting systems work.
SoC233
9
The New Energy Environment
The convergence of public attention, developments in alternative-energy technology, and private-sector investment in such technologies is reaching critical mass, but questions remain about whether recent developments will be enough to forge a new energy paradigm. A rapidly changing energy environment is a certainty.
SoC233
10
Conspicuous Conservation
SoC305
Long term, a need exists for energy sources that can effectively replace oil. However, consumers are motivated by short-term economic disruptions. Conspicuous conservation may become the necessary alternative as consumers face increasing economic hardship.
11
SoC337
Green Motives
As the green movement continues to evolve and mature, new segments and types of green consumers are emerging. Consumer reasons for going green are becoming considerably more nuanced and varied than they once were. • According to a survey by General Motors, nine in ten women prefer talking to a man who
drives a Prius over talking to a man who drives a Porsche. In addition, 80% of survey respondents find people more interesting if they drive a fuel-efficient car than if they do not. The survey indicates that a mix of factors—including environmental, monetary, and social concerns—are driving green consumer behavior.
• Hypermilers are people who try to squeeze as many miles as possible from a tank of fuel in a manner similar to how U.S. car owners in the 1950s sought to outdo each other in boosting their cars’ speed and acceleration performance.
• Research engineer Ken Kurani at the University of California, Davis, conducted a study of Prius, Civic, and Insight drivers in 2005. He discovered that owning gas-electric cars for many consumers was less about saving money than about self-expression and self-understanding.
12
SoC347
The U.S. Consumer and Global Warming
The American Climate Values Survey (ACVS) is a 2008 research effort that reveals U.S. attitudes toward global warming. • Only 18% of U.S. consumers strongly agreed that global warming is happening, harmful, and
caused by humans. • U.S. consumers perceive concern about global warming in culturally feminine/tender terms,
whereas they perceive the denial of global warming in masculine/tough terms. • Global-warming “contrarians” tend to be outspoken and informed consumers who instill public
doubt about the science of global warming through various media outlets. • Younger segments of consumers—who focus on fashion, instant gratification, and social
networking—showed particular concern for global warming as a trendy issue. • Innovative, high-resource consumers and hands-on consumer segments strongly identify with
green technology. • U.S. consumers view the issue of global warming as a high-status societal concern.
13
BRIC: Becoming Really Internationally Competitive
SoC395
14
Strategies to Secure Food
SoC398
15
Competition and Policy• Timing Is Everything in Going Green (October 2007)• Carbon Labeling Needs Standards (September 2008)• Empowering the Healthy Consumer (October 2009)• Consumer Applications of SaaS (October 2009)• Pay for Effectiveness (August 2009)
Is Sustainabil
ity Sustainabl
e?
Is Sustainabil
ity Sustainabl
e?
Demand• The New Energy Environment (April 2007)• Conspicuous Conservation (May 2008)• Green Motives (October 2008)• The U.S. Consumer and Global Warming (January 2009)• BRIC: Becoming Really Internationally Competitive
(September 2009)• Strategies to Secure Food (September 2009)
Signals of Change
Technology• Advanced Sensors as Application Enablers (January 2008• Smart Appliances Meet Smart Grid (February 2008)• Net Zero Buildings (March 2009)• Ubiquitous User Interfaces (September 2009)• Micropower (October 2009)• Narrowing Automotive-Energy Options (August 2009)
16
Alternative Energy Technologies Scan™ Workshop, 27 July 2006
From LDCs
to LEDs
From LDCs
to LEDs
Changing Balance of
Power in Energy Trade
Changing Balance of
Power in Energy Trade
Private Sector
Innovation
Private Sector
Innovation
Policy is FluidPolicy is Fluid
Business
Going Green
Business
Going Green
EnergyConservation
EnergyConservation
Changing
Equity
Environment
Changing
Equity
Environment
Transportation
Technology
Advances
Transportation
Technology
Advances
Law of Big
Numbers
Law of Big
Numbers
Still Low
Hanging Fruit
Still Low
Hanging Fruit
Wal-Mart Bores MeWal-Mart Bores Me
Distributed
Incremental Savings
Distributed
Incremental Savings
Not So
Simple
Not So
Simple
Green Accountability
Green Accountability
Where in the WorldWhere in the World
Bio Solutions to Energy Problems
Bio Solutions to Energy Problems
Science of Re-New-Cycle
Science of Re-New-Cycle
Time of
Penetration of Market
Time of
Penetration of Market
Harvesting Mechanical
Hyperactiviry
Harvesting Mechanical
Hyperactiviry
Land Abuse
Planning
Land Abuse
Planning
Energy Density Issues
Energy Density Issues
The Price is Right
The Price is Right
Optimize Your LifeOptimize Your Life
Lets Get Small (Nano)
Lets Get Small (Nano)
Or We'll Do It
for You
Or We'll Do It
for You
Action Spectrum Watch
17
Advanced Sensors as Application Enablers
18
Smart Appliances Meet Smart Grids
SoC351
The integration of sensor, computing, and network technologies in appliances and energy grids is rapidly evolving the means to optimize energy consumption, distribution, and production processes.
• The U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Richland, Washington) has completed a residential trial of a “Grid Friendly Appliance” controller, which shuts down appliances if the grid drops below the U.S. 60-hertz frequency.
• RLtec (London, England) is working on a system that would allow refrigerators constantly to regulate themselves collectively.
• Boulder, Colorado, is currently implementing a trial smart grid—SmartGridCity—that allows customers to see how much power they’re using.
• General Electric is working on a line of energy-management–enabled appliances suitable for remote control. It is due for release in 2009.
19SoC358
Net-Zero Buildings
Developing and implementing net-zero-energy and zero-carbon-footprint buildings is emerging as significant in architecture and construction. We are seeing traditional buildings transform into more energy-efficient and carbon-friendly configurations.• Masdar City is a $24 billion, nine-year initiative in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to
build the world’s first zero-carbon, zero-waste city.• Cisco Systems (San Jose, California) has signed an agreement with Metropolis, an
organization of 106 cities around the world, to create Internet-protocol–based intelligent city infrastructures, including smart power grids and smart buildings.
• Google (Mountain View, California) has recently submitted plans for a building that Google hopes will create a benchmark of sustainability and define new standards for architecture and construction.
• Italian architect David Fisher has designed the self-powered Dynamic Tower—the first building to generate its own electricity, as well as generate electricity for other buildings nearby.
20
EPRI: We Need “Holistic” Smart Grid
21
Ubiquitous User Interfaces
SoC393
22
Micropower
SoC401
23
Narrowing Automotive-Energy Options
SoC391
24
Competition and Policy• Timing Is Everything in Going Green (October 2007)• Carbon Labeling Needs Standards (September 2008)• Empowering the Healthy Consumer (October 2009)• Consumer Applications of SaaS (October 2009)• Pay for Effectiveness (August 2009)
Is Sustainabil
ity Sustainabl
e?
Is Sustainabil
ity Sustainabl
e?
Demand• The New Energy Environment (April 2007)• Conspicuous Conservation (May 2008)• Green Motives (October 2008)• The U.S. Consumer and Global Warming (January 2009)• BRIC: Becoming Really Internationally Competitive
(September 2009)• Strategies to Secure Food (September 2009)
Signals of Change
Technology• Advanced Sensors as Application Enablers (January 2008• Smart Appliances Meet Smart Grid (February 2008)• Net Zero Buildings (March 2009)• Ubiquitous User Interfaces (September 2009)• Micropower (October 2009)• Narrowing Automotive-Energy Options (August 2009)
25
Future of Manufacturing Scan™ Workshop, 12 November 2008
Psychological Factors
Why People Make Choices
Psychological Factors
Why People Make Choices
DDM Advances and Rise of Localized
Design
DDM Advances and Rise of Localized
Design
Leveraging the Weak EconomyLeveraging the Weak Economy
Water Labeling, Lifecycle
Water Labeling, Lifecycle
Are We Giving It
All Away?
Are We Giving It
All Away?
Materials As a Source of
Competitive Advantage
Materials As a Source of
Competitive Advantage
Marketing
Carbon Footprint
Marketing
Carbon Footprint
Manufacturing 3.0Manufacturing 3.0
Workforce Training Costs
A Lot to Get Back
Workforce Training Costs
A Lot to Get Back
Reducing Penalties
Of Rural Living
Reducing Penalties
Of Rural Living
Skills That Matter May Be ChangingSkills That Matter May Be Changing
Energy as a Source of Competitive AdvantageEnergy as a Source of Competitive Advantage
High-Energy Eco-Systems, Separating from Expensive and
Inefficient Urban Areas
High-Energy Eco-Systems, Separating from Expensive and
Inefficient Urban Areas
Information/Knowledge
Security
Information/Knowledge
Security
Retooling IT for Old Manufacturing
Retooling IT for Old Manufacturing
New Ways to Sell
Expensive Things
New Ways to Sell
Expensive Things
Preventive Maintenance Preventive
Maintenance
Data Mining and How to Manage
Resources
Data Mining and How to Manage
Resources
Urbanization As a
Barrier to Globalization [A]
Urbanization As a
Barrier to Globalization [A]
How to Encourage Grassroots Innovation
How to Encourage Grassroots Innovation
Enabling Robots to Leave their Restricted Area
Enabling Robots to Leave their Restricted Area
Finding New Mines For Data Mining
Finding New Mines For Data Mining
Action Spectrum Watch
Government Assistance
Across the Chasm
Government Assistance
Across the Chasm
Innovation, Customization,
And Market Validation
In Manufacturing
Innovation, Customization,
And Market Validation
In Manufacturing
Urbanization As a Barrier to
Globalization [B]
Urbanization As a Barrier to
Globalization [B]
Water Security as a New Priority
Water Security as a New Priority
Invisible GoldInvisible Gold
Customized World + Green World
Customized World + Green World
Digital Security
Cracks/Gaps
Digital Security
Cracks/Gaps
Competition of
Government-Industry Complex
Partner or Competitor?
Competition of
Government-Industry Complex
Partner or Competitor?
Rise of Natural Gas Security
Context of Food and Water
Rise of Natural Gas Security
Context of Food and Water
Finding More Value in
Rethinking Waste
Finding More Value in
Rethinking Waste
Lack of Standards for Carbon Footprint
Lack of Standards for Carbon Footprint
New Interactive Way
To Engage
New Interactive Way
To Engage
Old-School Approach To Moving the Tech
Forward
Old-School Approach To Moving the Tech
Forward
Service as a Business Model
Service as a Business Model
Service Design DeliveryThrough Robotics and
Enhanced Interface Tools
Service Design DeliveryThrough Robotics and
Enhanced Interface Tools
System Integration for Sustainable Urban
Development
System Integration for Sustainable Urban
Development
Bridging the “Silicon-Meatbag”
Divide
Bridging the “Silicon-Meatbag”
Divide
Consumer-Involved Health Care
Consumer-Involved Health Care
Environmental Compliance Monitoring
2.0: Making a Buck?
Environmental Compliance Monitoring
2.0: Making a Buck?
Advancing Science Beyond 1898
Advancing Science Beyond 1898
26
Timing Is Everything in Going Green
SoC254
The rush to support alternative energy technologies is not always tempered by the knowledge that many investments will take time to mature.
• Sugar-derived ethanol transportation fuel has helped Brazil replace 40% of gasoline consumption with ethanol as of 2006. In the United States, efforts to deliver ethanol from corn continue to gain momentum in spite of studies showing that corn-derived ethanol is not cost- or energy effective.
• The promise of clean coal resonates in the United States, China, and India, yet the environmental “cleanliness” of clean-coal power depends on the effectiveness of carbon capture and storage, which, according to a report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is not yet guaranteed to work.
• Coal to liquids (CTL) promises to deliver diesel fuels that derive from abundant coal at competitive prices. Opponents point out that CTL products are expensive to produce, production consumes large quantities of water, and CTL fuels are far greater contributors of greenhouse-gas emissions than conventional petroleum fuels are.
27
Carbon Labeling Needs Standards
Companies are adjusting to increased societal interest
in carbon counting and carbon labeling. • Tesco, a U.K.-based grocery and retail chain, has
introduced carbon labels on its own-brand products that state how much carbon dioxide a product will emit in its lifetime.
• In Japan, a standard government-approved labeling system that breaks down a product’s carbon footprint will appear on food packaging and other products.
• The European Commission is proposing to label car advertisements on the basis of carbon emissions and fuel consumption.
• France is using a diagnostic de performance energetique (test for energy performance): Sellers will have to pay for a diagnostic performance test and provide the results to a buyer or renter.
SoC328
28
Empowering the Healthy Consumer
SoC402
29
Consumer Applications of SaaS
SoC403
30
Pay for Effectiveness
SoC387
31
Source: www.johnsoncontrols.com/publish/us/en/sustainibility
• Definition: “the creation of manufactured products using processes that are non-polluting, conserve energy and natural resources, and are economically sound and safe for employees, communities, and consumers.” US Dept of Commerce's Sustainable Manufacturing Initiative
• Moves beyond “lean manufacturing” to incorporate “the triple bottom line”: economic prosperity, environmental stewardship and social responsibility
• Sustainable manufacturing (SM) practices include:— Regular audits: energy, water, waste, carbon foot print— Systems engineering to optimize toward net zero energy use— Reduced use of carbon-based fuels— Increased use of renewable fuels— Improved energy efficiency (i.e., more efficient motor controls, lighting, capture & reuse of heat)— Reduced water use — Materials substitution— Greater use of by-products— Waste reduction— More and better re-cycling— Re-manufacturing— Eco-friendly product design — Improved vehicle efficiency in transport of raw materials and/or
finished goods— Increased use of local suppliers (to reduce transportation costs, fuel
consumption)
Sustainable Manufacturing
32
Continuous Scanning Makes Sense of Complex Issues
Customer Priorities
Internet
Sales
ChannelsChip Manufacturers
Supply Capacity
EnvironmentCost of Goods Sold
Crime and Security
Public Attitudes
Design/CAD Technology
CustomerExperiences
Social Priorities
Competitive Structure
Use of Media
PoliticalLeaders
Work Patterns
Capital
Healthcare
New ProductsTechnology
Education andLearning
ElectronicCommerce
Populations Shifts
Price
New Media Techniques
Health of OECDEconomies
Perceptions of Risk
Privacy
IndustrializationPatterns
Corporate Demographics
Change Leader Attitudes
Value Chains
33
Generate IdeasNew trends or opportunities suggested
by background info: technologies, applications, services, business
models
Screen Trends NIST screening criteria (potential to change, competitiveness, strategic importance, etc.)
Select Which trends should we analyze further?
Set Objectives
Form Clusters
Which implications should be included in analysis briefings?
Review 80 Scan SoCs, Explorer Viewpoints
Describe ImpactsAdd timing, implications, impact, required capabilities, etc. to 21
13 Trends and their implications are further analyzed after the workshop; NIST opportunity
briefings developed
Analyze Trends and Develop Opportunity and Threat Assessment
Step 4:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 1:
Step 5:
Step 7:
Manufacturing Definition and Scope
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Wo
rksh
op Cluster trends having common features
Identify Potential ImplicationsStep 6:
Opportunity Discovery Turns Complexity into Focus and Action
34
Today 2020 and Beyond
Representative
Products
Technology
Manufacturing
Processes
Actions
Business
Considerations
Government Subsidies and RPS Requirements (B1)
Solar PV Arrays [P7]
Price of Oil (B2)
High-Temperature Materials [MP4]
In-situ Measurement of Thin-Film Processing [T1]
Price of Carbon (B3)
Concentrating Solar Thermal [P12]
Wind Turbines [P16]
Geothermal Power Plant [P13]
Cost Competitive IGCC Coal [P4]
ICCS w/CCS – “Clean Coal” [P5]
Cogeneration (CHP) [P2]
Waste Energy Recovery [P3]
Combustion Coal Plant [P1]
Low –cost Thin-Film PV [P8]
Building Integrated PV [P9]
Low-cost 3rd-Generation PV [P11]
High-Efficiency, Low-Speed
Wind Turbines [P19]
Large Off-shore Wind Turbine
Installations [P17]
Ocean Wave/Tidal Power
Systems [P18]
Enhanced Geothermal Power Plant [P15]
Zero-Water CSP [P14]
Biomass Combustion [P6]
High-Throughput Thin-Film Processing
(Roll-to-Roll) [MP1]
Nanomaterial Printing) [MP3]
Grid Status (B4)
Planning Tools – Land Use Efficiency [MP6]
Design Simulation for Large Systems [MP7]
Measuring Extreme Tolerances [T2]
Energy LCA [T3]
Energy Efficient Silicon Refining) [MP2]
Low-Cost Concentrating PV [P10]
Lifetime Estimate[T5]
Carbon Accounting [T4]
Nanomaterials Production [MP10]
Surface Modeling [T6]
Increased Manufacturing Capacity
– High-Strength Composites [MP8]
Increased Manufacturing Capacity
– Very Large Components [MP9]
Automated Manufacturing to Match Foreign
Competition [MP5]
Design Standards [T7]
Roadmapping Anticipates Net Steps
35
Sustainable, Connected, Smart