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© 2008. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.
The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or payment of related professional services fees in full.
Global Presidential Poll
• Readers Digest• Date: July, 2008
2© Synovate 2008
Contents
• Executive Summary 2• Research Overview 6• Key Findings 8
Executive Summary
© Synovate 2008 4
Executive Summary
Attention to the Election
• Outside of the U.S., the amount of attention paid to the U.S. presidential election varies a great deal. The most attention paid to the election was reported by respondents in Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Australia, and South Africa.
• The least amount of attention given to the election was indicated in Brazil, Poland, Russia, India, and Taiwan.
© Synovate 2008 5
Executive SummaryObama V. McCain• While preference for the candidates is nearly equal in the U.S., support for Obama is
significantly stronger in all other nations.
• In the U.S., McCain is seen as more qualified to address issues related to war and security, while Obama is the stronger candidate for humanitarian issues, such as poverty, the environment and human rights.
- All other nations feel Obama is better suited to address all issues asked about, particularly the humanitarian issues.
• Globally, the most important issues are the economy, poverty, and the environment.
• The election of Obama would be more likely to improve the image of the U.S.- South Africa is the only country where the election of McCain would have a slightly
more positive impact on the image of the U.S.
• Most countries believe a neutral or slightly positive effect on personal life would be achieved with the election of either candidate.
- Indonesia constitutes the one exception, with the majority anticipating a negative effect (71% for McCain, 59% for Obama).
© Synovate 2008 6
Executive Summary
Additional Opinions• Most agree that America is more ready to elect a black president than a
woman president.
• Neutral to positive opinions about the US government are common.- India is the most Pro-American (31%) while Spain, Netherlands,
Indonesia and Canada have the highest percent (21%, 21%, 20%, 19%) of respondents who are Anti-American.
• On average, just over 3 in 10 would be interested in moving to America if economic and political barriers were non-existent.
- The majority in India (73%), South Africa (65%), the Netherlands (55%) and France (52%) would make the move.
- In contrast, the least interest in moving to the U.S. was reported in Poland, Russia, Indonesia, and Australia. Approximately 70% of respondents in these countries expressed a lack of interest.
Research Overview
© Synovate 2008 8
Methodology
• Objectives: The objectives of this research were to determine international awareness of the US presidential campaign and who citizens of other countries would vote for, as well as gauge their opinion of each candidate on several globally significant issues.
• Methodology: Synovate’s Global Omnibus was used to conduct interviews in 15 countries from June 2 to July 7, 2008:- Telephone interviews were conducted via Computer Assisted
Telephone Interviewing (CATI) networks in UK, France, Germany, Russia, Poland, Spain, Mexico, Brazil, Taiwan and Australia.
- Face to face interviews are conducted door to door in South Africa, India and Indonesia.
- Online interviews among nationally representative samples drawn from Synovate’s Consumer Opinion Panels were conducted in the US and Canada.- Data from the Netherlands and Finland were collected by an
outside supplier. The data collection methods used in these countries were online and telephone, respectively.
Key Findings• Attention to Election 9• Most Important Issue 11• Obama v McCain 20• Additional Insights 31
© Synovate 2008 10
The amount of attention paid to the U.S. election varies.
• The seventeen countries varied a great deal regarding how much attention respondents have given to the election. Other than the U.S., the countries where the most attention (i.e., more than half indicated “quite a lot” or “some” attention) was reported include Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Australia, and South Africa (see graph on the following page).
• The least amount of attention paid to the election was reported in Brazil, Poland, Russia, India and Taiwan.
• Across all countries, men and/or older respondents (55+) were significantly more likely than women and younger respondents (under 25) to report paying “quite a lot” of attention to the election.
© Synovate 2008 11
The amount of attention paid to the U.S. election varies (continued).
13
28
31
31
27
32
20
36
28
30
35
27
10
22
18
5
40
38
49
25
30
36
33
39
24
23
26
19
23
35
16
9
12
42
6
15
28
24
21
18
22
19
18
8
3
7
6
3
3
4
48
US
Mexico
Netherlands
South Africa
Australia
Finland
Canada
Germany
France
UK
Spain
Taiwan
Brazil
Indonesia
Poland
Russia
India
Only a little Some Quite a lot
Q1: How much attention have you given to the upcoming election for the President of the United States? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
95%92%
85%
83%
81%79%
69%
64%57%
57%51%
41%30%
21%
85%92%
84%
Most Important Issue by Country
© Synovate 2008 13
Summary – Most Important Issues
Global Economy Global Poverty Environment
USA (26%)
Indonesia (23%) India (21%)
France (42%)
Spain (37%)
Mexico (35%) Poland (29%)
South Africa (28%)
Netherlands (23%)
Taiwan (45%) Brazil (42%)
Finland (36%)
Australia (33%) Canada (31%)
Germany (29%)
UK (25%)
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• Of the eight issues presented, these three are consistently seen as most important.
© Synovate 2008 14
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – North America
19
16
26
4
13
6
3
2
11
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
USA Canada
10
8
17
12
31
10
5
2
5
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• Americans tend not to share Canadians concerns about the environment
• Americans see global economy as most important
© Synovate 2008 15
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Europe
10
1
13
42
21
10
2
2
0
France Germany
7
5
7
22
29
23
2
5
1
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
UK
17
7
13
17
25
12
5
2
2
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• The environment and global poverty are both important issues for Western Europeans.
© Synovate 2008 16
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Europe
10
4
9
29
19
17
4
6
2
Poland
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
10
2
14
37
15
18
1
2
2
Spain
26
5
13
15
20
7
1
11
2
Russia
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• Russians are more likely to feel the threat of terrorism is most important compared to other European countries.
© Synovate 2008 17
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Europe
9
7
15
23
20
22
3
2
0
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
Netherlands Finland
7
2
14
19
36
14
1
6
2
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• Human rights are nearly as important an issue as poverty in the Netherlands.
• In Finland, the environment causes the most concern.
© Synovate 2008 18
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Central/South America
9
8
8
35
30
7
2
2
0
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
Mexico Brazil
2
2
8
34
42
8
1
3
0
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• Those in Central and South America attribute great importance to the issues of global poverty and the environment.
© Synovate 2008 19
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Pacific/Asia
9
5
14
17
33
13
5
3
3
Australia India
13
4
21
18
9
10
10
2
13
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
Indonesia
16
5
23
22
14
10
4
3
4
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• While Australians are concerned about the environment, the other Asian countries attribute more importance to economic and poverty-related issues.
© Synovate 2008 20
The One Issue Seen as Most Important – Asia/Africa
2
1
36
6
45
3
4
4
0
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Don’t Know
Taiwan South Africa
5
8
16
28
13
24
6
1
0
Q4: Which ONE of these global issues do you feel is the most important to you?
• The Taiwanese share other Asian countries’ concerns about the economy, but place even stronger importance on environmental issues.
• Poverty and human rights are the most important issues for South Africans.
Obama v. McCain
© Synovate 2008 22
Outside the U.S. support for Obama is significantly stronger across all countries.
38%
8% 7% 6%11% 10%
13%10%
13% 14%
25% 26%
17% 19%14%
26%
17%
92%85%
81% 78% 76% 76% 75%71% 70% 70% 70%
67% 65% 64% 61%
52%
36%
US
NetherlandsGermanyTaiwan Brazil
AustraliaSpain FranceFinland
UKMexico
South AfricaIndonesia
PolandCanadaIndia
Russia
John McCain Barack Obama
Q2: If you could vote for the next president of the United States, who would you vote for? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• While in the U.S., preference for the candidates is nearly equal.
• Obama supporters tend to be younger (under 35), whereas McCain supporters tend to be older (55+) and male.
© Synovate 2008 23
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - North America
49
43
35
24
25
28
36
40
25
34
35
41
42
48
31
24
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
USA Canada
32
23
20
7
10
8
25
21
36
50
44
60
57
69
41
33
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• In the U.S., McCain is seen as more qualified to address issues related to war and security, while Obama is the stronger candidate for humanitarian issues, such as poverty, the environment and human rights.
• Canadians feel Obama is better suited to address all issues, particularly humanitarian issues. John McCainBarack Obama
© Synovate 2008 24
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - Europe
28
14
19
6
10
8
15
16
53
71
60
79
70
79
69
60
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
France Germany
29
17
29
8
9
7
27
28
51
68
51
80
73
84
48
49
UK
30
20
20
10
14
8
24
23
45
57
54
69
63
76
49
47
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• Europeans feel Obama would do a better job at addressing all issues, particularly poverty, the environment and human rights. John McCain
Barack Obama
© Synovate 2008 25
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - Europe
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
29
24
21
12
15
11
21
24
35
42
45
56
47
64
39
33
Poland
21
14
16
9
9
7
23
20
66
74
66
79
75
83
61
62
Spain
22
11
17
11
12
11
20
22
30
39
33
38
30
45
29
24
Russia
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• While trending the same as the rest of Europe, Russians and Poles are less likely to see either candidate as able to address these issues. John McCain
Barack Obama
© Synovate 2008 26
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” - Europe
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
20
15
24
6
12
7
30
19
50
59
43
66
58
70
37
51
Finland
39
19
35
7
15
6
40
35
61
81
65
93
85
95
60
65
Netherlands
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• Opinions in the Netherlands and Finland trend the same as the rest of Europe. John McCain
Barack Obama
© Synovate 2008 27
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” – Central/South America
31
27
34
24
26
23
31
33
65
68
63
72
70
73
65
62
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Mexico Brazil
31
22
27
14
17
13
29
33
56
68
62
76
71
77
59
51
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• There is a strong preference for Obama as the candidate that would best address any issue. John McCain
Barack Obama
© Synovate 2008 28
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” – Pacific/Asia
22
14
20
5
8
5
21
12
47
60
45
65
61
75
41
48
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Australia India
19
17
20
15
20
23
17
17
44
43
38
42
41
37
37
31
Indonesia
21
17
20
17
15
16
24
28
50
53
53
57
51
60
46
36
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• Again, Obama is seen as more proficient on these global issues, though respondents in India are less likely to have an opinion about either candidate.
John McCainBarack Obama
© Synovate 2008 29
“Which Candidate Would Do A Better Job Addressing…” – Asia/Africa
20
15
14
9
12
6
17
13
37
43
51
57
48
65
41
34
Terrorism
War in Iraq
Global Economy
Global Poverty
Environment
Human Rights
International Trade
Nuclear Proliferation
Taiwan South Africa
36
29
33
22
31
26
36
37
58
63
60
73
61
71
58
54
Q3: For each of the global issues below, which candidate would do a better job at addressing the issue? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
John McCainBarack Obama
• And again, Obama is perceived as being able to do a better job addressing all of these issues.
© Synovate 2008 30
Obama would be more likely to improve the image of the U.S.
30%
17%
35%
20% 21%
14%
30%
38%
21%
31%
63%
15%21%
31%
17%14%
41%
81%77%
74%71%
68% 66% 65%58% 58% 57%
49%
41%
17%
59%59%61% 59%
US
Netherlands
Brazil SpainGermany
FranceTaiwanMexicoCanadaFinlandIndonesia
South AfricaAustralia
UK IndiaPoland Russia
John McCain Barack Obama
Q5: How would your image of America change if these candidates became president…?
% Improve Significantly/Somewhat
• Respondents in sixteen of the seventeen countries were significantly more likely to anticipate an improvement in their image of the U.S. if Obama is elected. Respondents under 25 years of age were particularly likely to feel this way.
• South Africa is the only country where the election of McCain would have a slightly more positive impact on their image of the U.S.
© Synovate 2008 31
Candidates would have little impact on current family life.
JOHN McCAIN BARACK OBAMANegatively Not at All Positively Negatively Not at All Positively
A B C D E FUS 1 25E 61 1 12 80CCanada 1 38 44 1 38 41France 5D 77 13 1 74 23Germany 2 77 16 0 71 25UK 5 76E 11 3 62 30CSpain 12D 67 16 1 58 38CRussia 2 75 18 1 78 13Poland 2 73 21 1 76 16Netherlands - 49 21 1 55 21Finland 2D 84 10 0 79 19CMexico 12D 69 19 8 64 28CBrazil 7 57 27 5 51 40CAustralia 4 68 23 2 64 28India 6 25 52 4 29 58Indonesia 71D 19 7 59 26 11Taiwan 0 70 25 1 75 20South Africa 7 40 43 4 33 59C
Q6: If (candidate respondent would vote for) were to get elected, do you think he would affect the life of you and your family…? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• Most countries believe a neutral or slightly positive effect on personal life would be achieved with the election of either candidate.
• Indonesia is the one exception, with the majority anticipating a negative effect.
Additional Insights
© Synovate 2008 33
America is more ready to elect a Black President than a Woman President.
59%
67%70%
79%74%
58%
72%
50%
71%65%
79% 78%
66% 67%
76% 79%
58%54%58%
49%
56%55% 54%59%
56%49%
41%
69%59%
47%
60% 60%
52%
28%
US
CanadaFranceGermany
UKPoland Spain Russia
NetherlandsFinlandMexico Brazil
AustraliaIndia
IndonesiaTaiwan
South Africa
Black President Woman President
Q12: Please tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statements. *(DK/Ref data not shown)
% Agree Completely/Somewhat
• However, at least 4 in 10 in all countries (excluding India) also believe that America would be ready for a woman president. (Note: Most polling was conducted after it was clear that Obama would be the presumptive nominee, and this could have influenced the responses to these questions.)
America is ready to elect a Black President/a Woman President
© Synovate 2008 34
Neutral to positive opinions of the U.S. are common.
11%
11%
10%
20%
4%
13%
21%
17%
8%
15%
15%
7%
21%
8%
10%
19%
62%
75%
73%
72%
63%
78%
73%
66%
65%
87%
72%
67%
48%
61%
80%
67%
77%
17%
13%
15%
17%
17%
16%
5%
13%
17%
5%
12%
17%
31%
12%
10%
18%
2%
19%US
Canada
France
Germany
UK
Spain
Poland
Russia
Netherlands
Finland
Mexico
Brazil
Australia
India
Indonesia
Taiwan
South Africa
Anti-American Neutral Pro-American
Q14: When you think of the United States government, do you consider yourself…? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
• The majority hold a neutral to positive opinion of the U.S. government.• India is most Pro-American while Spain, Netherlands, Indonesia and Canada have the
highest percent who are Anti-American.• Across most countries men and those aged 55+ tend to be more Pro-American.
© Synovate 2008 35
On average, just over 3 in 10 would be interested in a move to the U.S.
73%65%
55%
52%36%
33%32%
31%
30%27%
24%21%
20%19%
16%
16%
India
South Africa
Netherlands
France
Taiwan
Mexico
Spain
Brazil
UK
Canada
Indonesia
Finland
Germany
Australia
Poland
Russia
Q13: If you were able to move without any political or economic barriers, how interested would you be in moving to the US? *(DK/Ref data not shown)
% Very/Somewhat Interested
• Though the majority in India, South Africa, the Netherlands and France would be ready to make the move. Respondents under 25 are particularly likely to feel this way.
